The Trading Tribe

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Contributors Say Ed Says
Oct 30, 2016

Guide Dance

My Dear Ed,

In one of your reply, you had stated about finding life's true calling.

Your I = R has brought so much clarity since last two years.

You have been helping so many through your guidance. Over last so many years.

I wonder why there is a word Dance in Guidance!

Then I wonder why not!

I have been helping few needy ones over here, thanks to your bringing in clarity in my life. It has come slowly but surely. I know my direction clearly now.

Thank you for everything you have done for me.

Hugs ... lot of them ..

Thank you for sharing your process and for acknowledging me and the work.
Oct 28, 2016


Hi Ed,

I want to be your apprentice, I live and study in Murcia (Spain).

Hope everything is well.
Thank you for reaching out to me.

I wonder how you plan to operate a long-distance mentor-apprentice relationship.
Oct 25, 2016

Murder and Risk Control

Hi Chief,

My son’s art teacher, and her husband, were murdered in their house last weekend. They were brutally stabbed to death. We all feel deep sorrow for them. She went up to the 2nd floor bedroom while the murder(s) were killing his husband. The murder(s) then  find her under the bed and cut her throat.

If she has a gun in her house, she could have saved her life, or both lives. My wife feels extreme sadness and fear. We never see such horrible tragedy happens to people close to us. I hold my wife in my arms for long time that night. It strengthens my belief that  it’s naive to rely on the police or government to guarantee our safety. They take away weapons from individual and make us feel a fake sense of security.

The second day after we hear this, my wife comes back from Costco, with a gun safe which has fingerprint recognition lock. She has complained for a while that the way I keep our guns in current gun safe doesn’t help at all when there’s imminent danger. After I test the new gun safe, I am amazed by the quickness and accuracy of the fingerprint recognition system. We went back to Costco and bought 4 of them.

Now I have my firearms safe everywhere in my house, both upstairs and downstairs, keep them handy when needed. I am less than two seconds away to be ready to shoot if someone break into my house.

I feel a lot safer with this new technology. I actually have been planning doing this for a while, and I feel happy that we upgrade the safety of our house to a much higher level.

The older I live, the more important I feel about risk management. I then recall that couple years ago when we have breath work at your ranch, you carry your revolver when we hike to the river. I didn’t think about much why you do that. Now I understand, you are  not just doing that for fun.

Thank you for sharing your process.
Oct 25, 2016


Dear Ed,

I am about to join my first Tribe meeting in a few days. I am feeling my tonsils are very much swollen, enough to feel pain every time I swallow.

I am hoping I will feel well enough to be able to join the Tribe meeting and I am wondering if Fred is playing some resistance game on me. Would you like to share any insight about it?

Thank you.

With warm regards,
Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider taking your feelings about <self-expression> and <people holding you back> to Tribe as entry points.
Oct 25, 2016

Not Smiling all the Time

Hi Ed,

I hope this email finds you well. In the past I have emailed you constantly, and you been kind and understanding of my situation enough to respond. I felt the need to send you this because it has reshaped how I think about interactions.

I go to the Scientology center to pick up some learning material yesterday. Last night I dream that I fly first class. After reading some material, I find I do not need to smile all the time. Although as I write this I smile thinking about you.

I also have a party dream last night where we go to Napa-esque area and I bring you tea and lemonade. You tell me thank you. You talk with my father and say you don't check the markets during the day, just at the end of the trading session.

You mention that you like how everyone encompasses their own boundary. I ask you how you stay this way and you tell me tai chi. Everything in the dream just feels right.

Thank you Ed.

Smiling gratefully,

Thank you for sharing your process.
Oct 24, 2016

Hot Chocolate

Hi Ed,

I am doing well. I have a renewed love for hot chocolate. I remember our time together fondly. And when I think about it I smile. I find it easier to connect with others.

I work on staying connected more often and less time in shutdown/funk mode.

Thank you for sharing your process.
Oct 24, 2016

Wants Help

Hello Ed,

I do not know how to start the  conversation and I guess if I keep it short I will miss the points.i am  a 32 year  living in jaipur city in india. in india Mumbai is considered to be a commercial capital where trading is commonplace. in the city I live there are trading houses but I find none(without ego) to guide me and streamline my thoughts. i  have done four year degree program in engineering and a two year program in finance as my post graduation course.

I would like to tell you that I want your advice on matters related to trading and life in general.i belong to a very traditional family where speculation is consider as not a good  profession and you rarely find a man who understand the markets the way you guys do. this does not mean that there are no good traders here in my city. there are many but  they trade on their hunches and rules they cannot write or explain .i feel a misfit because I do not feel confident when I do not know what I am doing.I am keeping well finance wise and pursuing my trading along with other ventures.

I first get interested in markets when I was doing my project in finance and I stumble upon this BLACK SWAN book by Naseem Taleb. i find the idea of randomness very curious and I started exploring it. i read many works related to it over the years ranging from Bernoulli to Covel. at the very start I get the idea that luck plays a crucial role in life. I equally understand that giving credit to luck does not mean that your labor is whole attitude towards life took a roller coaster.i realize that you have to come to terms with yourself. there is nothing that you can force to change. accept the thing as they are.

When I first started buying stocks I did all the mistakes that every traders does and luckily I survived the loss both financial and mentality.I started reading specific books on trading, learning moving averages and candlesticks and god knows what not!!!.It seems so easy on charts to look at a buy signal(say a candlestick pattern) and feeling good how much profit you could have made on the  signal. But its too hard to pick the trade at that point when you trade in real term. There are many  reasons why one cannot put the trigger on. One is that they do not know what they intend to do and that creates confusion in mind.

At one point I get fed up with these charts. I realize that market reflects what we are or what we become when we trade.I still know how I felt  when I kept  shorting a stock while it went  up. That feeling is a feeling of desperation, feeling  arising because you cannot acknowledge that you do not govern the prices. And each time you short more each time you get deeper into that feeling.I also realize that how much I collect information about a company but still it is just drop in big ocean. There are things about stock that you will never get to know.

After many failures and learning today my approach is very simple.I first figure about the general trend by looking at the chart of market average(NIFTY 50).if the trend is up I start looking for the stocks that are crossing their all time high.I  filter these stocks on simple fundamentals because the numbers are too many to trade.I determine a stop loss before every trade. If any stock hit SL I get out and if it start moving up I remain in trade. Sometimes I also add. This way I make a portfolio. Generally I sell the portfolio when I am convinced the trend is over.

I have done many successful trades this way. I notices that this way my  trades keep going for months. I earned profit too. i also studies my account after I completes one operation .i  noticed that almost sixty percent of trades are losers but magnitude is small and only few trades are winners but their size  is large. In between few trades are profitable in the sense you can say break even.

Sir now I point out mu confusions .I only trade stocks that means I am not holding a diversified portfolio. I generally put one or two percent of my equity in one stock and keep  on adding the stocks if they shows strength  as per my rules. This way if I get ten percent of my equity at risk then I stop. My impression is all the stocks are correlated. Sometime I think over to diversify in commodities and currency but I don’t have the resources or the understanding of these markets. In India these other markets are also not developed too. So I finalize that I will concentrate on stocks for now.
I have read your article on risk and optimal size also. I have tried testing a system based on gaps on market average (NIFT 50)  but I am not able to understand the reports like montecarlo,walk forward etc.

I have  traders here in my city but nobody has the idea what I m talking about .I need your advice and guidance to further carry out my journey in trading. please reply  if you can help me .

Thanks if you are still with me………………..
Thank you for sharing your process.

I do not know what kind of help you you want.
Oct 23, 2016



I have fixed some data and also highlighted stuff in the tables when the percentile ranking jumps over 60 after 20 days. It means that in 20days, its first time above 60th percentile. Also highlighted in the percentile chart with a line drawn at 60.

Thank you for sharing your process.
Oct 23, 2016

Parkinsons Opinion

Hello Ed

I hope all is well for you and the tribes, I have bought a farm in the countryside for a development project which is very interesting.

Today I saw these videos showing evidence of Hilary Clinton's Parkinsons disease and would like your opinion if you think it is really as advanced as they state it is.
Thank you for raising this issue.

I know of many opinions about it, from various and conflicting sources.
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