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Contributors Say Ed Says
Aug 31, 2017

Texas Flood

Dear Ed Seykota,

I wish that everything and everybody are ok in your area.

Best regards,
Thank you for reaching out to me and for sharing your concerns about my safety.
Aug 30, 2017

Wet Crotch

Ed,

Are your feet dry or are you wading about up to you crotch ?
Thank you for reaching out to me and for sharing your concerns about my safety.

I have a ranch adjacent to the Colorado River in Bastrop, TX.

The storm circulates south, near Houston and barely catches Bastrop.

 
As you can see from the chart, we have a two-day rise in the Colorado River,
up about 25 feet - so, yes, some parts of my ranch go underwater for a while.

This happens from time and again.

The buildings and cattle stay high and dry,
save for some rain coming down on top.of them.

Houston, more directly in the storm path, has a whole different outcome, much more water.
Aug 30, 2017

Wants Guidance

Hey ed,

I am 19.I got to your website through my obsessive search for systems for trading,I have studied soros,hayek,popper and nassim taleb ,I am currently studying other successful traders and trying to falsify my theories,however complexity of economics makes it hard,I have a background in analytical philosophy,I am an empiricist(more realist)I would love to study under your guidance,if I could work for you for free,will you guide me?thanks.
Thank you for reaching out for guidance and for offering to work for me.

First Job:  Rewrite your email to me using proper punctuation and grammar.


Aug 30, 2017

Out of the Rough Patch

Hi Ed,

When I write you the email below, on 25 Aug, I am at an absolute low point. Your email cheers me up and makes me feel worth something.

Some very strange things happened to me after this. I somehow felt things had changed, but I could not explain it and there was no evidence of this whatsoever.

At 15:04 pm my time, approx 1 day later, I received an unsolicited phone call from a stranger. An old friend referred him to me. He was looking for a Business Analyst to work on the Olympic Dam mine site, on contract, for 3 months, with the possibility of ongoing work. No prior resources sector experience required.

He signs me up and I am now ready to fly out as we speak. All that remains is for mining company BHP to provide him with a purchase order for the subcontract to go ahead. I would be surprised if I am not on the mine site before the end of next week. I am trying not to get my hopes up too much but things are looking positive.

Also strangely, Today I receive a phone call relating to a management accounting job interview I had approximately a month ago.

I unfortunately didn't get the job, and didn't think any further on it. The phone call indicated that the interview panel were apparently impressed with me and although I didn't get that particular job and another similar position has just arisen.

They would like me to come in for an informal interview on Friday, for me to meet the person who would be my direct line manager in order to see if there is a good team fit.

Things are looking up for my prospects after 9 months of extreme hardship and emotional turmoil.

Ed please do not publish my idea for the [invention]. I would like to explore this further in an attempt to commercialize it.

The other ideas are fine to publish on FAQ.

I will let you know things proceed.

Warmest regards

Thank you for sharing your process.
Aug 29, 2017

Flood

Hi Ed,

There seems to be flood south of you community.  I hope that you are doing well in Austin.

All the best,
Thank you for caring to check in with me.

I experience some increase in the river levels near my ranch in Bastop.  Most of the severe damage occurs to the south, near Houston.
Aug 28, 2017

Wants Workshop in Europe

Dear Ed,

I’m happy to see that you plan to host a Workshop in Europe, please count me in. If you choose Frankfurt (where I live) or Göttingen (where my parents live) it would be great fun for me to help organising the event. Göttingen is a lovely University town and there are some great minds connected with the city, I recall some of them also appearing on your faq (time of stay in brackets):

Max Born (1921-33)

Otto Hahn (1957)

Alexander v. Humbold (1789-91)

Georg Christoph Lichtenberg (1770-99)

Max Planck (1945-47)

Carl Friedrich Gauß (1795-1855)

Werner Heisenberg (1922-27)

Best wishes
Thank you for your offer to help host a Workshop in Europe.
Aug 28, 2017

Wants a Mentor

Ed,

A little about me-

I am a 25-year-old recent college graduate (in Economics) who loves the financial markets and as of recently, been fascinated with Trend Following. I have been waking up at 4 (I live in Phoenix) for the past year and a half to do research and trade on virtual accounts. I have read so many books on trading and trend following and yours is a name, of course, that comes up quite often.

Most importantly I am married to my best friend and we have a little girl coming in December (I know that has nothing to do with this email but I am just so pumped to have a little girl that I have to tell everyone)

Ed to be frank the reason why I am emailing is because I know 9/10 traders fail. There is so much nonsense out there that I feel over-complicates trading. Honestly, sometimes it is hard to block out the noise. One of the only things I learned from business school was that if you truly want to succeed, you need a mentor.

Now I don't expect anything from you and you don't owe me anything. I don't expect to take much of your time at all, but it would be so amazing if I could email you every once and a while with any questions that I have. I don't want a guru that is going to make me rich in the next year. I want someone who knows how to follow trends who can help me for the long run.

I have the passion and drive. I just need a LOT of guidance and I'm not afraid to admit it.

Yours truly,
Thank you for reaching out to me.

You may continue to send questions and comments about your process to FAQ.
Aug 27, 2017

From Peaceful to Confident

Dear Ed,

I notice and realize that time flies so fast.

I see two pictures of my daughter.

One is of her childhood when she is very peaceful.

The other is of recent trip where she now appears a confident person.

This feeling of time flies helps me to focus on essentials and becoming a better father.

So thanks one more time.








Thank you for sharing your daughter's process - and your own.
Aug 27, 2017

Grandpa

Dear Ed,

In my previous email I write : Dear Ed, I don't have better words then to tell you that I love you! Wish you were my grandpa! (You may tell me that I might consider taking this feeling of  Ed being my grandpa to the tribe!)

Now I wonder! Is this the way fundamental investor approaches the market by predicting the non existent future? I burst out laughing.

Thanks for helping me laugh so much!

Hugs again.
Thank you for honoring me by awarding me the role of grandpa.  
Aug 27, 2017

Jealousy

Ed,

I have been dating (not sure if its' dating as we have met only twice) a girl since three months now. She is well educated, is a US Citizen, is of my age and is a divorcee with two children.

She appears to be a very matured and practical person, except for one thing.

I notice her need to talk a lot. Daily for hours.

This disturbs my routine everyday.

I gently remind her and share my feeling and concerns to her. I share my reading targets for the month of August to her.

She acknowledges those nicely. But her need to talk is overwhelming for her and in turn for me. I like to talk to her since she is a nice person but cannot give so much time. Instead I believe in spending quality time.

We have met only twice but we talk a lot on the phone till last week.

I recently remind her about my reading targets and tell her nicely that it's not possible to talk so much and that she should not expect my calls everyday. At that time she tells me that even she has a target to get married before this Dec. I congratulate her for setting her target. My congratulation surprises her.

My not calling her for just 5 days disturbs her a lot. She also stops calling me for few days.

Today she calls and informs me that she has found a new person for her and that she is traveling with him to Japan soon. I feel, notice and sense my jealousy! Then I remember your TT book's page 71-74! AHA! And immediately heartily congratulate her for finding a life partner so fast.

From my perspective, people should not be in a hurry for getting married.

They should first know that person very well. Marriage is a commitment for long term. She seems to be in a hurry whereas my intention is to find a compatible partner.

Then I remember your I = R.

Here seems to be a classic case of consistency and commitment. The intention here is to get married and so the result - outcome is likely to go in that direction! The target has been set so it must be achieved.

The focus may or may not be in finding an ideal person.

I have no idea whether she has told me the truth or is trying to ignite jealousy and or deprival syndrome in me.

But my congratulating her warmly for a new partner seems to have shocked her.

She tells me she will call tomorrow. I don't know why!

I find peace again.

Dear Ed, I don't have better words then to tell you that I love you! Wish you were my grandpa! (You may tell me that I might consider taking this feeling of  Ed being my grandpa to the tribe!)

Believe me, your guidance helps to reduce drama in real life.

Thank you so much again.

Hugs to you from a far away place.
Thank you for sharing your process - and for exemplifying how to use TTP principles to maintain balance.

Jealousy has a positive intention of motivating us to guard our stuff - as in "jealously guarding something."

In intimate relationships, people generally award each other some entitlement stuff. They do this by making agreements about, say, fidelity, transparency and attention.

If you detect a loss of your entitlement stuff, you might naturally feel jealousy.

You might have less stuff than you expect due to a change in your partner's sentiments - or due to misunderstanding about the original agreements.

In either case, you may also experience various other feelings, such as sadness (for the loss), anger (for betrayal) and disappointment (for failure to meet expectations).

At such point you might simply ask your partner to clarify the agreements so you can bring your expectations in line with reality.

If you have an intimacy-centric relationship, you can work with your partner to clarify intentions and then proceed - from a new and more solid basis.

If you have a control-centric relationship, your partner may resist getting clear; she may have her own agenda to manipulate you through keeping you jealous; she may see your willingness to experience your feelings (and work through them) as a threat to her power over you.

In general, people can only control you to the extent that you do not have willingness to experience one or another of your own feelings.

In control-centric cases in which the parties try to avoid complementary feelings, they may wind up locking into complementary drama - that keeps all the feelings, for both parties, simmering just below the surface.

You might consider taking all your feelings about this matter to Tribe to acknowledge them and their positive intentions.




Aug 26, 2017

Wants Help and Guidance

Hi

Going through the Trading Tribe Process makes sense. I have been trying to establish myself (become a profitable trader) since past one year.

I have learned a system, it seems logically sound, others make money, I have lost a lot.

Need help and guidance.

--
Thanks

Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider taking your feelings about <markets behaving logically> to Tribe as an entry point.
Aug 25, 2017

Rough Patch

Ed,

I haven't really contacted you or reached out at all recently. The truth is I am feeling really worthless, extremely frustrated and I almost wish i could crawl into a hole and disappear, so much so to the point I wouldn't care if I were dead or not. I haven't wanted to trouble you but I have wanted to reach out.

My last work  contract ended on 30 November 2016. I have not had a "real" job since then.
We are getting by, but only just.

My good wife [Name] is the main breadwinner at the moment. She is now a teacher and relief teaches early years primary school about 3-4 days a week on average.

I drive for Uber as my sole income source. Her wage approximately covers our mortgage and my Uber earnings approximately covers some food and general bills. We are living day by day and if things break they can't be repaired or replaced.

My Uber earnings hourly rate is less than minimum wage here in Australia. I would be better off working at the supermarket or doing labour work which even that seems to be beyond me in my attempts to obtain it.

I also recently obtained a truck driver license and a forklift license but everywhere I apply they seem to only want experienced workers. Also the application for jobs these days is all online and I can't seem to break through this internet job application electronic brick wall.

All of this brings up strong feelings of my being inadequate, frustrated, rejection, somehow a lessor person, an outsider, stagnation, decay.  I feel like a a piece of wasted humanity. I don't want to have a defeatist attitude but life won't seem to let me escape my situation.

I look around and I know there are a lot of people also out of work, but I also notice lots of people are driving fancy cars, they are going on holidays, renovating their houses, going to Pubs and spending large amounts on alcohol, I see this all driving for Uber.

I am resentful that I have worked really hard in my life and I have done the right thing, I have done my best to please others and I have waited my turn and I have got better grades, been more determined and worked harder than a lot of people and somehow I find myself in this position.
I can see that I am wallowing in self pity and I hate it.

What I find even more frustrating is I have seen this potentially coming for a number of years, as a possibility, since about 2010 when I left my last permanent job and risked taking a contract I thought would lead to better things. Since then I have tried to secure a permanent employment contract to prevent this from happening. Fortunately, just as my contract ended, my wife manged to finish her degree and she started working as a relief teacher.

I imagine potential employers thinking:
"What is this accountant and engineer guy doing applying for labourer work at 45 years old?"

We moved to Australia in Jan 2013 after living through the Financial Crisis there. I was made redundant there.

I have worked on contract since arriving in Perth, but it has gotten harder and more difficult with all the mining industry layoffs and the current job situation in Perth is not good.

Things are apparently starting to recover, so I am told, but I am not seeing it. BHP, Rio Tinto and other mining companies are all starting to hire again but are only looking for experienced workers which rules me out. The contract labour hire companies are not interested in helping me as I have no experience. My last 4 years here in Perth are contracting for State Government which is currently shedding 20% of it's existing workforce in order to cut expenditures.

When I apply for accounting jobs, they seem to want me to have the relevant industry experience such as FMCG or Resources Sector and they have plenty of other candidates available who do have this experience so I don't seem to be able to clear the first hurdle. The only occasional interviews I get seem to be for the occasional state government job.

Now I would go to Sydney or Melborne, or even back to London, financial centres where my accounting qualification and experience would be better suited to help me find work, however my kids have just started high school and are really happy and settled. They have friends and are in a good school. I don't really want to move them again. I have already disrupted their lives and friendships twice, moving from London to Auckland and Auckland to Perth.

Also, our house is now worth less than when we bought it in 2013. If we sell our house, we would wipe out all the equity we have and we couldn't rent either, as neither myself nor my wife have permanent work, which would enable us to sign a lease agreement.

This has been the toughest year of my life so far. My wife is under strain, being the main earner in the family. We are stretched to breaking point. I work evenings and weekends driving Uber so we really even see each other much.

I feel so low that I struggle to even bring myself to contact friends anymore. I can't face the questions and I don't want to complain or and I am so tired of giveing bad news. I am tired of the advice, drop in social stature and powerlessness that seems to go with being unemployed.

I am struggling to even put job applications together to launch into the ether that is online job websites.

I think about doing something else like possibly:

    Run my own segway tours for tourists, but need capital to purchase the segway's which I don't have.

    I have an idea to invent [an invention].

    I had an idea to invent tea bags on a stick instead of on a string, so that one does not need a spoon to stir the tea and the string won't tangle with the spoon, but I don't think I can take this further as this "inventive step" already seems to be in the public domain.

    Purchase a franchise such as to drive waste bin trucks or a coffee van but these are expensive and require capital that I don't have.

It seems I am stuck in a corner. I wish I could stabilize our situation and finances and extract myself from this mess.

I recently spoke with [Name] and he is also going through a rough patch as I think most trend followers seem to be ...
   
I try to take comfort from the fact that I am not the only one going through tough times. There are plenty others out there in even worse situations, including for example Syrian refugees caught up in the middle eastern turmoil with nowhere to go.

At the moment I just try to get through every day as best I can.

I think of you often Ed,
I am grateful for your teachings.
Thank your for your good work and kindness.

Warmest regards

Thank you for sharing your process.
Aug 25, 2017

Missing Markets

Hello Ed,

On the www.Seykota.com website, I have been watching the actual long-only trend following system trade futures.

It has been very educational. I noticed that today's chart book is missing several futures markets that have appeared over the last few weeks. Does that mean the most recent positions that no longer appear were closed out?

I have also enjoyed reading the insights in your book.

Thank you very much.
Thank you for noticing an issue with TT Chartbook.

The system runs automatically, on a clock on a laptop computer - and without an operator.

Occasionally it encounters situations such as loss of connection to Internet - and does not post a complete solution.

I host the service as a running example of a trend-following approach to the markets.

It shows some winners and some losers.

It does not imply any recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out of any particular instruments.

Thank you for acknowledging my book.
Aug 24, 2017

Priorities

Dear Sir,

I read your piece on market wizard and it seems to me it is easy for you to find priorities in your life. I wonder how I can do the same for myself.
Thank you for raising this issue.

If you don't yet know your priorities, you can find someone who knows his - and offer to serve him.
Aug 23, 2017

TT Chartbook

Dear Ed,

I checked in to the TT Chartbook and a stock I followed closely is breaking out beautifully [Symbol]. I stopped tracking a year ago, today the chart looks like money. Thank you.

Thank you for noticing TT Chartbook.
Aug 23, 2017

Crude Spreads

Hi Ed,

I just had a question regarding crude oil calendar spreads. In your experience, which are the spreads that are subject to the highest seasonal movements and behaviour? What is the best way to trade seasonality?

Thank you

Regards
Thank you for raising this issue.

In general, I favor trading trends and managing risk.
Aug 22, 2017

Limits to Growth

Ed,
 
Maybe an unpleasant question.

I was involved in systems theory, at a very simple level in 1995 for my final examination before graduating in Economy.  The title of workshop was corporate forecasting and systems theory.

I was interested in the topic since then. I learnt that for the famous work of Aureliano Peccei’s Club of rome of 1971 called “ the limits to growth”  that prof Jay Forrester was consulted for main insights.

After the fact, that is an easy task, we can say that the study correctly forecasted  the actual world crisis.

After so long time in your great work “Govopoly  in the 39th day” you state the same limit to growth  (tax, central bank, falling free index etc).

I recognize here same style of great Forrester work.

Don’t you think that Thery of systems is very good in forecast limits and not so good in forecast point of ongoing trend? I add something more here, why in theTheory of System is not included main cycle of 54 years as Kondratiev one and see the long term inpact with models?
In my book, Govopoly in the 39-th Day, on page 4, I credit Jay Forrester as one of my teachers - and I post a photo of the two of us.

Feedback System Models help us understand how the system structure (intention) generates the system behavior (results).

Such models indicate modes of behavior; they do not forecast the timing of events very accurately.

The Kondratiev Cycle (also, Long Wave) has to do with capital formation. It has a period in the 50-to-60-year range.  For example, during the early-expansion phase, consumers demand goods while entrepreneurs demand additional goods in order to form capital.  This positive-feedback raises prices - until production increases and saturates the market.

The Limits-to-Growth cycle has to do with population reaching the end of its resources; it extends the work of Thomas Robert Malthus; you can test the hypothesis by watching mold grow on a piece of bread.

The Assimilation Cycle (in my book) has to do with the growth of the Govopoly System as it assimilates the Free-Competition Sector; you can see the 39-th day currently playing out in Venezuela.

These cycles keep prices moving and keep trend traders busy.
Aug 20, 2017

Huge Trend

Dear Chief Ed,

Another huge trend ..

Sincerely





Thank you for sending me the chart.
Aug 20, 2017

Anchor

Dear Chief Ed,

It's always a pleasure to reach out to you, and I am certain all your tribe members across the world feel the same...

In a small way we all feel a part of your site, and use your wisdom as an anchor to right our path...

Sincerely,
Thank you for acknowledging me and the work.
Aug 20, 2017

4U70M471C4LLY

Ed,

7H15 M3554G3 53RV35 7O PR0V3 H0W 0UR M1ND5 C4N D0 4M4Z1NG 7H1NG5! 1MPR3551V3 7H1NG5!
 
1N 7H3 B3G1NN1NG 17 WA5 H4RD BU7 N0W, Y0UR M1ND 1S R34D1NG 17 4U70M471C4LLY W17H0U7 3V3N 7H1NK1NG 4B0U7 17.  
 
B3 PROUD! 0NLY C3R741N P30PL3 C4N R3AD 7H15!
7H4NK5.
Aug 20, 2017

Workshop

Hi Ed,

I have the TTP book and attend one meeting with [Name 1] years ago.

I am in touch with [Name 2] to join the next TTP London meeting.

I want to attend your TTP Workshop. Do you have the next workshop scheduled?

thank you
Thank you for raising this issue.

I do not currently have a Workshop in the works.
Aug 20, 2017

Back Testing 

My questions are regarding back testing. Previously you advised I learn excel then move to c#. Would you recommend I personally build a back testing platform or would you recommend one you have used which takes into account spread, commissions and other charges?
Thank you for raising this issue.

1. You might like to build your own software and know exactly how it works.

2. You might like to use someone else's software.

3. You might like to have someone else do your trading - in which case you might like to select someone in category 1, above.
Aug 19, 2017

Some Doubts Here

Dear Ed,

an unpleasant question maybe.

I studied form my master on Theory of system and corporate forecasting in 1995 to a simple level Jay Forrester and his theory of systems.

Is it true that Aureliano Peccei of famous club of rome, engaged prof Forrester for her Theory of limits of development of 1972 ?

That forecast was not too early, not linked to Kondratiev cycles and used for political purposes does assimilation of free private sector is not a forecast but a manual of instruction of leaders ?

I have some doubts here.

thanks
Grazie per aver mandato la tua richiesta.
Non capisco il tuo inglese. Per favore ri-invia in italiano - o in inglese dopo aver ricevuto aiuto con la traduzione.

- - - - -

Thank you for sending me your inquiry.
I do not understand your English.  Please re-send it in Italian - or in English after you get some help with translation.


Aug 19, 2017

Giving Govopoly to Son

Hi Ed -

I guess I'm late in saying this, but HAPPY BIRTHDAY!  This guy sings better than I do....  Enjoy.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-ZB-8MfyE8

I think you got another year younger, judging by the date for August's FAQ page ..... (2016)

Reading and enjoying Govopoly for the 2nd time - before passing it along to my son.

All the best,
Thank you for the heads up on the date, for remembering my birthday, for sending me the song by Mr. Rogers and for telling me you plan to give Govopoly to your son.
Aug 19, 2017

Tops, Bottoms and Sides

Hi Mr. Seykota,

In the Specific Indicators post (July 10, 2017)  you mentioned that, "If you like looking at tops and bottoms, go to a swimsuit-optional beach.  If you want to trade trends, look for sides."

Does "look for sides" mean evaluating the probabilities of the up and down direction of an instrument's price at a particular moment?

Or does it simply mean getting the middle of the trend and ignoring the top and bottom?

Thanks for your clarification,
Thank you for raising this issue.

I don't know what you mean by "evaluating probabilities."  Perhaps you can send me an example of a probability with its associating evaluation.

The points, top and a bottom, occur instantaneously and have no trend; you can see them only in retrospect.

Sides have length and lie between tops and bottoms; they run for a while and have trends; you can see them as they occur.

Trend followers exploit sides; people wishing to act out feelings such as frustration, sadness and anger exploit tops and bottoms.

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to trade tops and bottoms> to Tribe as entry points.
Aug 18, 2017

Workshop in Europe

Hi Chief,

I remain interested in attending a TTP Workshop in Europe, ideally in the Netherlands.

In case you decide to hold a Workshop in the Netherlands, I would be glad to help you with the logistics of finding a suitable location, catering and other necessary arrangements.
Thank you for extending your offer to me.
Aug 15, 2017

Live Forever

Hi Ed,

My friend recommends me to read this book. “Fantastic Voyage - Live Long Enough to Live Forever”.

I just skimmed couple pages and am already amazed by the idea of the book. The idea is that we are at verge of revolution in Biology and Nanotechnologies. New technology like nano probes, organ regeneration etc are at horizon of reality.

If we manage to live healthier and live  20 more years longer, the technologies progress in the 20 years might gain us another 30 years. And the technologies in the extra 30 years might give us another 30 years too.

From bridge to bridge, we might reach nearly immortality.

I feel exited about this. I hope I can catch the ride, I wish you also can hold the position long enough to enjoy the trend.

Have a nice day!
Thank you for raising this issue.

You might like to consider what type of world we might have with people living forever.

For example, such a society might generate interminable dynasties, inhibit the introduction of new technologies that threaten the powerful and seek equilibrium as stagnant, senile, repressive society.

You might consider taking your feelings about <living fully in the now> to Tribe as an entry point.
Aug 15, 2017

Longer-Term Chart

Hey Ed,

Thanks for the link (extending my 10-year chart backward to 1870 - showing the 10-year low as a small correction). Picking bottoms woulda just resulted in stinky fingers! ;)

I better be careful about looking for reasons for myself and my investors. Certainly, a good entry point.

I greatly appreciate your support.
Thank you for acknowledging the charts.

In a Free-Competition economy, equity and other measures of standard of living keep rising while prices fall.

Under a Govopoly System, the opposite prevails.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/cycles-
of-commodities-vs-/555700

Aug 15, 2017

Portland Tribe Update

Hi Ed,

Just a quick update on our one year old Portland Tribe. 

With two new members recently joined we are now at six.  One of our new members has been to a Workshop and Breathwork in addition to having participated in another Tribe for a number of
years. 

His leadership marks a turning point for us, our most recent meeting two weeks ago was noticeably effective with three of us in turn taking the hot seat.

Speaking of feelings manifesting themselves as forms, I noticed this a few days ago while reading A Joseph Campbell Companion that John Sterinbeck would like to go about rubbing his sides.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Aug 9, 2017

Thoughts on Stocks

Hi, keen to know your thoughts on Indian pharma / health care stocks ... largely generics which seem to be in a bear or is the bull market correction coming to an end. Tea the world's largest generic company has also had a major sell off
Thank you for raising this issue.

I don't think about stocks very much.  I mostly look at stock price charts and sort them on strength.

For example, see TT Chartbook, at Resources, above.
Aug 9, 2017

How Many Markets to Trade

Hi Ed,

I hope you're having a nice summer.

Since I've began trading in 2011, I've thought a lot about how to go about selecting markets to trade. Nowadays, we have an abundance of markets and a lot of overlap in many sectors where correlation is seemingly always high. I think this a huge advantage that many traders don't take advantage of.

Today we have numerous U.S. stock markets, government bonds, a handful of different wheats, a dozen European bonds and rates, a handful of energy markets (WTI, Brent, Gas Oil, Kerosene - they're pretty much all the same!), etc.

I wonder if I can trade less markets while not giving up any material diversification. For example, when wheat markets break out a few weeks ago, instead of taking the long signal in the most liquid CME Wheat, why not observe all available "wheat" markets (milling wheat, hard red, spring wheat, etc) and go long the strongest one? By doing this, I can still maintain my "wheat" exposure but get in the strongest trending form - at least at the time.

I'm not sure if you've ever thought about this, but I thought I'd share my brainstorming with you since you've been kind enough to help me over the years.

Thanks.
Thank you for raising this issue.

You make the most money by putting everything you have on the very best instrument, right before it goes up.

For example, you buy a bitcoin for $0.001 and then see it go to $3,000.  That gives you a 3,000,000:1 gain. So far, $10,000 gets you $30 Billion.

Of course, to work this trick, you have to know what to buy and when to buy it.  If, for example, you buy bitcoin a couple years ago on margin at $1,000, you lose your stake on the way down to $300.

You can also use a system that selects a portfolio of trending instruments and also manages risk.  This generally makes less than 3,000,000:1 and also generally survives during volatile markets.

You might consider back testing various methods to find out which ones fit you.
Aug 7, 2017

Birthday Wishes

Hi Ed,

I hope this email finds you and your family well. Are you in Texas, Puerto Rico or elsewhere in the world?

I'm currently in London and enjoying it very much. All well business and health wise as I hope is with you.

I know I say this every year, however words still can not properly express my gratitude to you for the kindness and generosity you should me so many years ago - it's why I'm able to live the life I do. Thank you so very much.

Warm regards,

Thank you for remembering me on my birthday and for extending kind thoughts.

I also thank many other people for writing in to FAQ to help me celebrate my 71-st one.

Rather than reprint all of them here on FAQ, I plan to send individual notes.
Aug 7, 2017

Before He Trades - Carrie Underwood Parody

Ed,

You might like this video:

http://youtu.be/wU1pD4xPe2M
Thank you for sending me the link to the video.
Aug 6, 2017

Compelling and Disturbing - Relay from Mike Covel

Michael,

I am a regular listener to your podcasts. I appreciate the wide variety of incredible guests and the disparate and yet relevant topics that they discuss. I'm impressed by your ability to ask "that" question that the guest responds "no one has ever asked me that before." It's recognizable that you must do a lot of research prior to each interview. 

One such compelling and yet disturbing interview was with Ed Seykota, podcast #355. Among other things, you discussed some major topics from his book Govopoly. His statement that things, politics/the economy/government/society, are the way they are supposed to be and that there is nothing to be done about them ran counter to my world view. I was shaken by his statement that "I don't think there is anything to fix." I'm a person that believes when you realize things have strayed from the correct path you fight to bring them back in line. I guess the real question is what is the correct path. 

I shared the podcast with a close friend who I enjoy debating topics like these with. His response was basically that he assumed the game was over long ago and he was resigned to his fate. Again this ran counter to my belief system. 

Over two years after listening to you and Ed, I was listening to "The Death of Money," a book by another of your podcast's alumni, Jim Rickards. About halfway through the book Jim discusses the Federal Reserve. I know that there are varying opinions on the FED and I didn't have very much knowledge on the subject so I decided to finally breakdown and listen to "The Creature from Jekyll Island." Holy shit! I only made it through 3 chapters before I felt compelled to listen to the Ed Seykota interview again.

I'm not naïve when it comes to my understanding of how things work in America but even if a small portion of what is said in "… Jekyll Island" is true I now understand where Ed is coming from. The mechanism is too big, too entrenched, and too interwoven into the fabric of our government and society to be fought to any meaningful affect. 

I just thought I would share this bit of circular podcast listening with you. I believed you would appreciate my "oh s--t" aka aha moment concerning our society. 

Any thoughts? 

Have you done an interview with G. Edward Griffin? It may be interesting to hear what he has to say on the Trump era. 

Thanks again for your truly insightful podcasts.
Thank you for considering the thesis I present in my book, Govopoly.

I hold that the Govopoly System intends to Assimilate the Free-Competition Sector and then, eventually, to perish with its host.

For a current example, see Venezuela.

I hold politics as, largely, theater for the masses and participation in politics as mostly pointless drama.

I also hold that you have phenomenal opportunities to actualize your life on a local level.

For more on this, see my other book, The Trading Tribe.


Aug 4, 2017

39th Day and Beyond

Dear Ed,

I read with a lot of interest your book about 39th day exp function.

I world like to know what happen next. In 40/41 day system explode. What curve follow it? Another inverted exp function and how many periods last? Same 40?

Then is there a Tribe in Italy?
Thank you for raising this issue.

My book, Govopoly, presents a model that explains many symptoms of the currently evolving economic situation.

The model shows how the Govopoly System Assimilates the Free-Competition Sector - putting the entire system into decline and, ultimately, chaos.  I do not provide a definite schedule of events.

For a current example of Assimilation, see Venezuela.

You may check the Tribe Directory for a Tribe near you - and you may also start one of your own.
Aug 4, 2017

Economics and Astrology

Dear Chief Ed,

I recall your comment in the context of trends '... the math doesn't work .. '

Sincerely,

- - - - -

https://aeon.co/essays/how-economists-
rode-maths-to-become-our-era-s-astrologers



...The notion that an entire culture – not just a few eccentric financiers – could be bewitched by empty, extravagant theories might seem absurd. How could all those people, all that math, be mistaken...

Thank you for sending me the link.

In my book, Govopoly, I hold that Economists generally find employment in the Govopoly System and, as such, tend to support Assimilation.
Aug 2, 2017

TT Chartbook

Hi Ed:

Your site is usually updated by now (11:46 PM).  Just letting you know it is still showing August 1st data.

Thanks,
Thank you for reporting the situation.

Upon examining the machine that generates and posts the charts, I find that MS One Drive tends to interfere with the process. 

I replace with Google Drive and now the process runs more smoothly.
Aug 2, 2017

Direct Contact

Hi Ed,

A couple of days ago I have a dream which I don't think is a dream but something I call soul communication where the soul directly contacts source.

Anyways I have this knowing that my soul will go to this soul gate and that I don't know whether it leads to heaven or hell. And I sit there and I feel the feeling and my life flashes before me and this thought comes and goes that it doesn't really matter if I go to heaven or hell because it will not change the way I would lead my life. That I will still do good and help other and lead my life the way I see fit. And this feeling of bliss and complete oneness and understand comes over me.

And then I get back to my normal mode. And I start to get worried again and research and analyze this soul gate except there is not much information on it on the web ... Only among the locals.

I wonder if you can help me get back to that state of being.

Thanks for reading,
Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to get back to that state> to Tribe as an entry point.
Aug 1, 2017

Single Market

Howdy,

I'm a complete novice when it comes to trading and I'm taking a deep dive reading about strategies, following trends, etc. my biggest issue is I think I lack the intuition which comes with experience. Do you reckon I should stick to a single market to begin? Or do you think market is not relevant to the process of following price and volatility?

Appreciate all of your brilliant work, would love to meet you one day.
Thank you for raising this issue.

Trading multiple markets affords various advantages; you can use diversification to manage risk and you have a better chance of catching a trend.

The fastest way to make money: go all on one thing in at the start of a huge trend. The fastest way to go broke: go all in on one thing at the start of a huge trend.
Aug 1, 2017

Loneliness

Hi Ed,

Recently everybody around me try to make me feel lonely.

What are the positive intentions of loneliness?

When somebody offers you a hug, does this actually interfere with fully experiencing loneliness?

Is experiencing loneliness part of the path to grow in life?
Thank you for raising this issue.

Loneliness generally motivates a search for companionship.

If you have a judgment about loneliness or otherwise suppress it, you may hesitate to form relationships - and wind up even more alone.

Experiencing loneliness, and engaging its positive intention can bring you a satisfying social life.

You might consider taking your feelings about <loneliness> to Tribe.
Aug 1, 2017

In and Out

Hi Ed,

Do you think exits are more important than entry in trading? 
Thank you for raising this issue.

They have about the same relative importance as breathing in and breathing out.
Aug 1, 2017

Wants Interview

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I am currently a student at [City] University and I'm writing a research paper for my MBA program on systematic trading, specifically trend following. Would you have time to meet to be interviewed? I will be in Texas later this year and it would be much appreciated. I find this topic fascinating and would love to learn more. Thank you and I look forward to speaking with you.

All the best,
Thank you for offering to interview me.

You may send a list of your questions to me, here, at FAQ.
Aug 01, 2017

Brain Chemistry of Addiction

Ed,

You might like to see this video that claims similar brain chemistry behind all forms of addiction.
Thank you for sharing the video.
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