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April 1-8, 2004

 

 

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Thu, 08 Apr 2004

 

FAQ For You.

I have noticed that this web site privileges the 'psychology' of trading over other issues.

 

Why should psychology be any more important for trading than any other human activity in which might involve self doubt ?

 

Why do traders require their own type of analysis different from the rest of society ? ie,

 

Why is there a 'traders tribe' but not a 'golf tribe' ?

Surely a strong understanding of the statistics of stochastic processes, and
issues of data snooping would be of primary importance ?

 

Self doubt and fear in trading are a consequence of inadequate research.

 

A musician or sportsman does not make mistakes because of personal issues, but because of inadequate preparation.

 

A survey of the personal lives of elite musicians and sportsman can confirm that they are among the most confused of all people on the planet.

The treatment of trend as almost a law of nature is also highly suspect.

 

It can be shown statistically that trend following works in the financial markets, but why take it further ?

 

'Go with the flow' as a universal truth might be used to justify all kinds of aweful crimes.

The anecdotes on this site which claim improvements in trading performance
after application of the trading tribe process could easily be attributed to mean reversion.

May I point out that mainstream psychology now considers debriefing techniques as described on this site as counterproductive and perhaps dangerous.

 

Readers proceed at your own risk !

ED: Have you considered taking your feelings about wanting to be a guru or cult leader into the trading tribe process ?

The question, why, has no answer (any answer), and typically indicates lack of focus, or desire to control on the part of the questioner.

 

The word, should, indicates a desire to control others.

 

Imbedding phrases such as, surely, and survey can confirm indicates appeal to a phantom higher authority.

 

Is suspect  - Can be shown -Might be used - Could be attributed - Mainstream now considers - are passive constructions. They lack a subject so you don't have to take responsibility.

 

My guess is that you are not quite ready to take your feelings (guess: anger and fear) into the process.

 

You likely prefer doing things to feeling things.

 

So you might consider doing this: re-write your note in SVO-p. Subject - Verb - Object - present tense.  Avoid why, should and passive tense.

 

 

 

Twins

 

People are eternally divided into two classes, the believer, builder, and praiser, and the unbeliever, destroyer and critic." ~ John Ruskin

 

There's only one corner of the universe you can be certain of improving; and that is your own self. So you have to begin there, not outside, not on other people. That comes afterwards, when you have worked on your own corner. ~ Aldous Huxley

 

Clip: http://home.earthlink.net/

~biotdog/twins.jpg

Wed, 7 Apr 2004


FAQ

Hi Ed,

Can you explain and expand on the process of creating our own snapshot. You give mention to it on the TTP page but not in detail.

I enjoy learning from reading your website. Thank you.

I plan to expand the hardball process, including developing the snapshot, at the Workshop.  Look for more information on how to do it, shortly thereafter.

 

 

Snapshot

Clear, Evocative and it Doesn't Move.

 

When you develop your intention

into a snapshot of now

it tends to manifest quickly.

 

Clip: http://www.northwestern.edu/

images/features/snapshot-old.jpg

Wed, 7 Apr 2004

 

Submission

Ed,

Lately, I have been realizing that my father's intentions are running my life. His influence and power over my actions and choices is very subtle, yet very strong. He controls me in an indirect fashion. For instance, I acknowledge he is quite frustrated for not getting materially "rich" and tries to project his dreams and frustrations into his sons, usually by continuous, very subtle suggestions of what we should do and strive for, i.e., he is using his paternal authority to achieve his own dreams and goals.

 

I usually struggle with that (on an intellectual level) in an effort to convince me that I am free to make own my choices and decide what path I am going to take in my life. Yet, in the end, it seems that I always find myself doing exactly what he wants, and that precisely I don't even know what I want for myself or, at least, I have not been quite given the opportunity to decide that "freely".

Your father can control you, only to the extent that you, in turn, are trying to control him.

 

If you don't care what he does, he has no control.

 

You might take your feelings about control into TTP.

 

 

Fathers and Sons

 

The one in control

is the one who

doesn't have to be in control.

 

Clip: http://www.gregoryharrisonsite.com/

images/tv-father-and-son.jpg

Tue, 6 Apr 2004

 

Positive Intentions

Hi Ed,

1. I wanted to share with the community that my proclamations for this year are reality. On weekends I now have the urge to go out rather than sit at home by myself ... I wish there was still a link for the proclamations so that we could review our proclamations from time to time, even though it is already in my subconscious. Maybe kind of as a reinforcement from time to time.

2. I am constantly improving as a human being.  Trading takes care of itself, but I find that there are still a lot of areas in terms of relationships and people skills that I need to improve on in life. I would be honored if you could shed a little insight into the positive intention(s) of judging other people. Judging other people has become a drama I was not consciously aware of.

All the best (nice trending charts by the way),

Congratulations on the inexorable process of realizing your intentions.

 

A link to the proclamations page appears on the FAQ home page.

 

Some positive intentions of judging others are (1) to select desirable playmates and (2) to help others grow.

 

Perhaps you can take your feelings of judging yourself judging others - into TTP - and find out what the positive intentions are for you.

 

 

Judge Dredd

 

Positive Intentions to da Max

 

Clip: http://stp.ling.uu.se/

~klasp/judge_dredd.jpeg

Tue, 6 Apr 2004

 

FAQ

Ed,


While looking at the charts I noticed the red, green and blue strength indicator lines. Are these ADX lines? Thanks.

Lines sometimes appear to display some internal computations, to confirm the ranking filter is working properly.

Tue, 06 Apr 2004

 

Application to IV Tribe


Hi Ed,


spent some time exploring your site with much interest. i love what you are
doing and no wonder you have had such great response from people and why
they travel from far off to be in the tribe.

 

i have been on a journey for quite a few years seeking insight to all lives mysteries and hidden ability of being more awake during my stay on this planet.

 

i am driven to explore human potential and seek teachers and discoveries that help me in personal development and evolution. i truly believe there is amazing potential from within that we have barely tapped into. i have spent years following universal laws and live the fact that we create our own reality. we are what we think, thus, i do my best to stay in a positive place.

 

i have read so many fascinating books and often hear of how our feelings tie into the process of changing old patterns and belief systems. it has been quite a road for me to changing some limiting patterns, even knowing and following what teachings i've learned.

 

i'm particularly looking to break the old " i'm not good enough" thoughts, and create the abundance i deserve. i seem to always only just get by and i am acutely aware that there is something stuck at this point, that keeps me from my bigger desires. maybe fear of success, maybe some painful thing connected to success, i don't know but i am so ready to break this and understand the block.

 

even after 100's of books and seminars and endless affirmations i'm still hovering. i have found many teachings of ways i'm curious to explore but most require the many dollars i'm not creating right now. what i'm hearing in what you teach with tt is that fred, your inner guidance, is fused with old feelings and beliefs, drama of past experience, as it gets to cm and that keeps you in a looping type pattern instead of a spiral up.

 

through your process, when you return to those situations that bring up the limiting patterns, deliberate changing of the feelings attached can ultimately change the outcome to a new experience. i would love to use these techniques and look for some movement in my stuck areas. please put me on your waiting list if possible. you can call me any time with further questions. mornings and evenings are best.


thank you,

p.s. love drum circles!

You seem to want to change, to break with the past, to get unstuck, to get out of the rut, etc.

 

TTP takes the approach that you are already in exactly the right rut - that Fred wants you there, so that you can experience some feelings.

 

By accepting the rut, and getting deeply into the feelings of it, without concern for getting unstuck, and with the thought that you like the rut, you can begin to experience it fully.

 

As you connect Fred and CM in a celebration of the experience, the feelings seem to disappear, leaving insight and little desire to continue the drama.

 

So, by accepting the rut, and by being willing to experience the feelings, you find yourself out of it.

 

 

The Way Out of a Rut

 

is sometimes

to get even more deeply in.

 

Clip: www.brian894x4.com/

picturespage2.html

Tue, 6 Apr 2004


Pollinators

Thanks Ed,

I've just read your new "pollinators" document on the TT website today.
Great info for clarification ! (There is one minor typo /mistake I believe that you may want to correct: In the 1st line of the 4th paragraph from the end, it should probably read; "provide for each other is to help set each other free." / instead of "it so" etc.)

Look forward to seeing you again next month.

Thanks for the correction.

Mon, 5 Apr 2004


My Trend Following Poem

Hi Ed,

Our Tribe leader has inspired me to write a poem, I want to share it with you.

My Trend Following Poem ...

I have now learned a method

that seems to be old,
it goes like this,

so I have been told.

When the trend points up,

I lock and load,
feelings arise

and I start to feel cold.

As I peel back the onion,

feelings start to unfold,
my risk is too high,

I am much too bold.

I adjust my risk

and become more controlled,
much to the benefit

of my entire household.

As my position goes higher,

I continue to hold,
with feelings of fear

and thoughts to fold.

Good thing for me

that my tribe is enrolled,
because Fred and CM

are closely patrolled.

My position is now changing

and I can start to smell mold,
my stop is quickly hit

and I jump to yell SOLD!

What have I learned

from these lessons of gold?

I'm not sure,

but my account is up ... FIVEFOLD!

Behold - Fivefold !

Sun, 4 Apr 2004


All-Time Highs

 

Hi Ed,

Thanks for your check-in post, I believe it will help our tribe.

Here is an observation for you ...

On Tue, 21 Oct 2003, Ed writes:

"I notice XXX is trading at about 1/4 of its all-time high. You might check your feelings about wanting to get in near the bottom, rather than go with things that are making all-time highs."


On the TTP chart page, Ed writes:

"If you trade stocks from the long side and your stocks do not look like these you might take your feelings about buying strength and trading with the trend into the Trading Tribe Process."

Based on your previous response, I wonder why you would post charts that are 1/3rd and 1/8th of their all-time highs.

Yours truly,

You pose an interesting question.

 

If two charts have identical intermediate-term strength and are also in new-high ground for several years, would you be inclined to buy the one in all-time high ground or one that still below all-time highs.

 

Keep an eye on the Charts page for some investigations along these lines.

Sun, 4 Apr 2004


Hardball Vulnerability


Ed Says:

 

In the Hardball Process we intend to intentionally experience the feelings standing between us and our goals.

As we experience our feelings, they tend to dissolve, leaving relatively clear paths between us and our goals.



Hi Ed!

I am afraid that the Hardball Process does work. Yet I could find a vulnerability in my experience with it: I keep changing the intention and getting nothing at all. The equation is simple:

INTENTION = RESULTS <=> UNCLEAR INTENTION = UNCLEAR RESULTS


Yes,  your intention (to change intentions and get nothing at all) seems to get the appropriate result.

 

 

 

Changing Intentions Midway

 

sometimes produces

interesting composite images

 

Clip: http://members.aol.com/

claysoles/pict218.jpg

Sun, 04 Apr 2004


Seeking 72%

Dear Ed,

I have about 150K that I would like to commit to 3 or 4 of mechanical trading programs for many years. I have found one trader whose program style matches my long-term earnings goals, and whose capital requirements I can meet.

 

Assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns, a Monte Carlo simulation of the system I will assign some capital to returns a 72% annual return as the most likely outcome (72% being 4.6% compounded for 12 months.). The 5th and 95th percentile of the simulation yield an annual return of -69% and +286%, respectively. So, as can be expected, the drawdowns generated by the system can be large.

 

I could commit all of the capital to this trader, but there is always the outside chance that at some point the system breaks down and stops winning. If I can find other traders with similar expected rates of return, I figure I can reduce my risk of a possible system breakdown. Would you happen know to mechanical traders that offer programs whose expected annual return nears or exceeds the 70% level? I have found some leads, but believe the more options the better.

Thank you,

You might think twice before you base your investment decisions on predictions (and promises) of profit.

 

No one can see the (non-existing) future or guarantee profits.

 

You might like to focus on how your trader intends to handle drawdowns - and how you intend to handle your trader during drawdowns.

 

You might like to take your feelings about drawdowns into TTP to ensure Fred is not setting up drama for you.

 

 

Diving

 

Some people like the feeling

and others don't.

 

 

http://www.middlearth.it/

borisvalejo/diving%20copia.gif

Sun, 4 Apr 2004

 

Directory


Hi Ed.

I notice the tribe directory has British Columbia separate from the other two Canadian tribes. I’m pretty certain British Columbia is still a Canadian Province.


Cheers,

Thank you for the fix.

Sat, 3 Apr 2004

 

Feedback on Incline Village Visit

[Copy of Inter-Tribe Correspondence]


What a night! It was fantastic participating in the IV meeting. Ed did some serious work and I take a lot of ideas home to [Location] on how to improve our meetings.

I love Tahoe!

-----

You might consider a service to other tribes: write up a report of your experience for Ed's new Pollinator's Page ... that is if you have enough Now available !

cheers,

I welcome Pollinator reports, and other essays that help to inform readers about how to start Tribes and how to conduct Tribe meetings.

 

 

 

A mind that is stretched to a new idea

never returns to its original dimension.
~Oliver Wendell Holmes

 

Clip: http://www.greenhousekit.com/

cartoons/pollen.gif

Sat, 03 Apr 2004


Reno Workshop

Dear Ed,

I would like to attend your workshop in Reno in May. I read your FAQ quite often and only today noticed that a price hold was in effect until April 1st. If I were to post my letter and cheque on Monday April 5th (today is Saturday in the UK), may I enroll at the current price of $2750.

Regards,

The current price appears on the Workshop page.

Sat, 3 Apr 2004


Investissement Avec Toi

Porquoi n'est responde pas a mon email?
merci.

You might try re-wording your note in SVO-p, so as to avoid the word, why (porquoi).

Fri, 2 Apr 2004

 

Investissement Avec Toi

Mrs. Seykota

Pour investir avec toi, quel sont:


1- Le montant minim (10.000 dolares)?
2- Le pass necessaire pour ouvrir un conte?
3- Rentabilité de 2002/2003?

Merci

How about try that again in just one language at a time, preferably English.

 

 

 

Successful Investing Requires Alignment

of the investor and the manager

 

on lots of levels, including language.

 

Clip: http://www.puzzlehistory.com/

babel.jpg

Fri, 2 Apr 2004


Question on Charts


Hello Mr. Seykota.


I appreciate your Web site very much and have learned a lot about myself. I have a few questions if I may regarding your new "Charts" page.

1) Could you describe the red, blue and green lines displayed on the charts and what they represent?

2) "Filter preferences of some readers" - Were these FAQ submissions and can they be described?

3) "Trading Tribe Growth Engine" Can you describe what this is? Is this a testing platform? Who can gain and or have access to it?

Thank you for fielding my inquiries.

Best regards,

I publish some charts, according to suggestions from some readers.

 

Lines sometimes appear on the charts, to confirm intermediate calculations in the filtering process. 

 

The Growth Engine ranks charts according to trader preferences.

Thu, 1 Apr 2004

 

Missing a Meeting


Hi Ed !

I'm experiencing MISSING a Tribe Meeting. TTP is addictive.

Experiencing feelings is subtract-ive.

 

 

 

Abacus

 

Avoiding feelings is add-ictive;

experiencing them is subtract-ive.

 

Clip: http://orders.mkn.co.uk/mime

/toy/counting/abacus.jpg

Thu, 01 Apr 2004

 

TTP Workshop

Dear Ed,

I am a member of the [Name] Tribe. With [our Chief's] encouragement I have decided to attend to your TTP workshop May 7,8,9. I am today sending my cheque and signature page. I look forward to our meeting in the flesh knowing full well that our Fred's have already done so.

Cheers and best wishes,

Yes, Freds all connect, real-time in the ever evolving moment of now.

 

 

 

It's still, and always, now.

 

Clip: http://www.humorbg.com/

Karikaturi/PROFESSIONALS/

computers/now-and-then.jpg