© Ed Seykota, 2003 - 2005 ... Write for permission to reprint.

Ed Seykota's

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ Index & Ground Rules  ...  Tribe Directory - How to Join

TTP - The Trading Tribe Process  ...  Glossary

  TTP Workshop  ...  Resources

 

April 22-26, 2004


Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Mon, 26 Apr 2004

 

TTP Supports Sticking to the System

Ed,

There is a new contact for the Denver Tribe. With his permission, I am sending
you his information. He was the one of the people at the first meeting and has attended every one. Will you please change the contact information in the Tribe Directory?

My new intention is to tend to my pregnant wife, due in the middle of June, and my two young children.

 

My trading system is completely automated. I wrote it myself in Visual Basic. I released what I thought was the final version in
September, but had a bad case of creeping elegance and kept releasing "improved"
versions.

 

So, I volunteered in December to start a tribe in Denver to work out the drama. With their wonderful help, I can keep my hands in my pockets and not interfere with it anymore. It's been running over a month unfettered, and it really works.

Thanks,

Congratulations !

 

 

Mon, 26 Apr 2004


My Son

see reference

Dear Ed:

 

Ed:

I reviewed your website in greater detail - there are no tribes in this area - as for starting one - I have admitted that I don't have any degree of understanding at this point when it comes to trading - I would need [to become] educated prior to starting a group centered around a topic that I don't know.

Is it possible for us to talk for a minute about becoming a tribe?

 

Please e-mail me if I should call you and at which number or call me toll free at 1-800-xxx-xxxx. Thanks.

Yes it is possible to talk to me for a minute.  See Private Consulting, at the bottom of the FAQ home page. 

Mon 26 Apr 2004

 

Mistakes

fwd: article from Reuters


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Why is it so annoying to watch someone else make a mistake? Maybe because it affects the same areas of the brain as when a person makes his or her own mistake, Dutch researchers said on Monday.

Experiments in which volunteers tried a computer task and then watched each other do the same thing showed the brain reacted in a similar way whether the observer made the mistake, or watched someone else make it.

Writing in the May issue of the journal Nature Neuroscience, the team at the University of Nijmegen in the Netherlands said their findings help shed light on how human beings learn by watching one another.

For their experiment Hein van Schie and colleagues hooked up 16 men and women to electrodes to measure brain activity and then sat them in front of a display screen with a joystick. The task was simple -- to move the joystick in the same direction as certain arrows appearing on the screen.

"Participants were instructed to respond both quickly and accurately in the direction of the center arrowhead," Van Schie and colleagues wrote.

After each trial, the volunteers were told whether they were correct.

When people realized they had made an error, a distinctive electrical signal arose from a brain region called the anterior cingulate cortex.

The same thing happened when the volunteers watched other volunteers try the experiment and make the occasional mistake, the researchers found.

"These data suggest that similar neural mechanisms are involved in monitoring one's own actions and the actions of others," they concluded.

Hmmm ... if this is so, it might be a good idea to surround yourself with good traders, and to make sure they stay good ... maybe join some kind of group that meets regularly for mutual support ...

Mon, 26 Apr 2004


Trend Following

vs Investing

vs Bottom Fishing

Hello Ed,

I discovered your website a couple of days ago. I thank you for the aha effect I am experiencing and for the potential of a more effective life and better trading I now see in the (non-existent) future.

The last time, I had a comparable feeling of understanding of myself was a couple of years ago, when I learned about the enneagram. But as I understand it now it was very much a DIM process and by talking to others about my findings I even pulled them into my drama instead of really solving it. I guess my next step will be to look for a tribe. If anybody from Germany mailed you before I will be glad to receive their email.

I would like to know your opinion on the following.

I have been a trader for a couple of years and I have an ability to go against the trend at the right time (like the shorting of UP on a hunch in Reminiscences ...). Being able to see short term trends ending actually helps when you hedge a long gamma position.

 

But I am willing to admit, that for me to make the step from average to highly successful trader I have to learn to let my winners run further and to cut my losses earlier.

 

Beside my will to be a trader I am interested in value investing and feel that I have the necessary mentality to succeed in that area. When I think about it somebody like W. Buffett is a trend follower too. He has invested in a couple of trends like the long-term trends to drink nonalcoholic beverages, to shave, to eat candy or to buy cheap auto insurance to name a few.

 

But unlike you he cares about those ...-mentals you find so funny. A value investor doesn't care about price trends - he only looks for price levels that present over- or undervaluation.

Which brings me back to myself. Inside I see the ability for independent thinking, the ability to pick tops and bottoms, an understanding that you can make money by finding under- or over-valuation based on fundamentals, the experience of going against the trend too early and the inability to buy at price highs even if I have the feeling that not everybody has catched on to the strong fundamentals.

 

Now I figure the answer to the question how to successfully trade or invest lies inside of me. But based on your experience with successful traders I would appreciate your view on bottom fishing vs. trend trading and different personalities.

 

You say the TTP process fits trend trading very well.

 

What about value investing, which in my opinion requires a discipline as tough as the discipline required for trend following?

 

Do you know successful traders who stopped bottom fishing altogether to become trend followers of a similar style to yours?

I am looking forward to your wisdom.

People who practice TTP tend to stop day trading, stop top and bottom picking, and stop trying to figure out the markets. 

 

They tend to develop an affinity for trend following, profit riding and loss cutting.

 

Warren Buffet's profitable positions are, by basic math, going with, not against, the trend.

 

Your what about question:

 

"What about value investing, which in my opinion requires a discipline as tough as the discipline required for trend following?"

 

is fundamentally ambiguous - and appears to be more of a statement of your opinions than a question. 

 

At the heart of fundamental analysis is an attempt to parse a messy, global, non-linear holistic world, down into a tidy linear local causal sub system.

 

Fundamentalists who come to experience their fear of the messy unknown, and their desire to control it, tend to become trend followers.

 

 

 

Trend Follower's Guide

to Bottom Picking

 

 

Clip: www.actionfit.com/ bottoms.htm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 26 Apr 2004

 

Testing Software

Ed,

Would you be able to provide a list of reputable software and data vendors that I could use to help develop a trade system?

 

... Are there any that you find easier to use than others for those of us that do not have the computer skill-set that you posses?

FAQ does not endorse traders or commercial products, See FAQ Ground Rules.

 

I sometimes wonder if there is a magical banjo I might use, to make it easier for guys like me, who do not have the musical skill set that Bela Fleck possesses.

 

Alas, Bill Evans (another world-class banjoist, from the Bay Area) tells me the easy way (the only way) is to get the books and records, learn the licks and scales, and practice, practice, practice.

 

When you can commit to your testing the way that Bill Evans commits to the banjo, you might have a chance of coming up with something pretty good.

 

 

 

Bill Evans

musician, teacher, writer, scholar.

 

Bills' Banjo in America concert traces the banjo from its West African roots to the New World. He performs musical examples from the 1700’s to the present day on a variety of vintage instruments: 18th century African dance tunes; Civil War music; early 20th century ragtime; folk; bluegrass.

 

Clip: www.nativeandfine.com/ Banjo.htm

Mon, 26 Apr 2004

 

Quit or Fight

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I have been trading for six months, the first three I did incredibly well and made a lot of money but since Christmas break everything goes bad, every trade I make turns me down.

 

Basically the system I follow is buying after big gaps and that's how it did work for me but now something is wrong, don't know probably I have lost my motivation or self esteem. What do you think Mr. Ed, should I quit or keep on fighting?

FAQ does not tell people what they should" do. 

 

Many successful traders have (1) a trading system that works, and (2) the ability to follow it.

 

If you are not sure how your system works, you might try encoding it and back-testing it. (See Charts Page)

 

You might notice you frame trading as fighting.

 

You might take your feelings about fighting, losing motivation and self esteem into the process.

 

 

Some Traders Assume

Facial Expressions and Body Posture

 

to fit their trading metaphors.

 

Clip: http://www.goshen.edu/news/

bulletin/dec99/fighting.jpg

Mon, 26 Apr 2004

 

Setting the Record Straight

see previous

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I was first stunned to hear your response to my post to the person who wrote the Apr 8 FAQ, in that I may have a desire to "set the record straight" or to get the guy see my point of view.

However, when I am willing to "listen to opposition" with an open mind, I'm more surprised to discover what I learn about myself.

At first it was a genuine interest in trying to understand where that person comes from. I was expecting (or hoping) him to cite a research paper that shows "mainstream psychology considers the debriefing techniques counterproductive and dangerous", and perhaps also a link to show how trend-following is suspect.

But then perhaps an also important reason is when he says "Readers proceed at their own risk", and as you suspect, it probably plugs me into my own desire to "set the record straight."

 

So while I am interested in understanding his opposing views, it is undeniable that I may also have that deep desire to "disprove" him. (I know, trying to disprove or argue with the
market may be costly)

Thanks for the clarification that TTP is a process of people who are already
willing to experience their feelings deeply.

ciao,

Most people are really pretty agreeable, until you try to change them.

 

 

 

Your Experience of Others

 

may depend on the degree

to which you support or resist

their mission, as they see it

 

Clip: http://www.defence.gov.au/raaf/

images/for_site/wallpaper/air%20force.jpg

 

Mon, 26 Apr 2004


My Son

Dear Mr. Seykota:

I am interested in meeting you to discuss trading. I have a successful tax and estate planning practice within a firm that offers "managed accounts" through other firm principals. However, I have no experience in that area but have significant motivation to learn trading techniques - reasons described below.

My primary motivation is my 3 1/2 month old son. As I mentioned, over the last eight years I won favor of many attorneys, CPA's and community leaders with the work that I do and the fact that I worked like a mad man to do an excellent job for my clients. Now I would like to pursue trading to spend more time at home with my wife and our son - working but with my family.

As I mentioned - I have no trading experience and a significant desire to learn. After researching successful traders you are in an elite class and that's why I would like to learn from you.

My concern is that you specifically state that you do not provide market specific trading suggestions or parameter specific system recommendations and I think that is what I truly need and am asking you to consider helping me in the following areas:


1.) Computer and software configurations.
2.) A blueprint to trade by and trends to identify.
3.) A definition of proper money management within the context of how you trade.
4.) A clear picture of the mistakes traders make and why so that they can be avoided.
5.) A list of other things I should be learning to improve my chances of becoming extremely proficient in making intelligent high probability trades.


I hope that I am misreading your statements concerning what you teach and are willing to talk with me about the possibility of me "joining your tribe."  I have given your name to all of our assistants with instructions to get me out of any meetings if you call - I hope to hear from you soon.

Very truly yours,

Let's say I want to become a successful estate planner and I ask you to do the following:

 

1. Set me up with the right software.

2. Give me a blueprint.

3. Define proper estate planning.

4. Give me a clear picture of mistakes.

5. List other good things to do.

 

And say I want to get all this information by meeting with you to discuss estate planning - and then to

directly implement an estate planning business as an automatic "black box" system.

 

My motivation for this is to free up a lot of time for me to spend with my family, although my historical pattern is to work like mad, to please my clients.

 

If you wish to see me in person, see the link to private consulting at the bottom on the FAQ home page.

 

 

 

People Who Work Like Mad

 

sometimes try to get off the treadmill

by changing careers

and just wind up importing their madness

into their new career.

 

One way to get off the treadmill

is to fully experience the madness,

and discover its positive intention.

 

Note: treadmill-itis typically

sets in for the accounting profession

shortly after April 15.

 

Clip: http://www.bearclover.net/

art/pics/mad-max1.jpg

Sun, 25 Apr 2004

 

Short Term / Long Term Study

Dear Ed,

... the first 5 charts are making all time highs, whereas the last 5 are making 3yr or more, highs ... my question is then - should one eliminate the last 5 charts, in order to stay with the best ?

Thank you for your guidance and inspiration,

FAQ does not tell people what they "should" do. 

 

The study demonstrates that stocks that look similar on a 100 day chart may look very different on a longer chart.  There are many ways to define strong and the definition you use can make a big difference.

Sun, 25 Apr 2004


Chart Lab

see: Chart Page, above


Hi Ed!


I do discretionary trading and rather than using a given set of definitions to trigger an order, I focus on appropriate risk/potential reward setups to trigger a trade.

 

These might objective or subjective in nature. I just need to measure risk adequately and have an idea of the potential reward.

 

I feel that the only objective aspect of trading I can manage is risk and my struggle is exactly with having the commitment to define precise risk management rules and stick to the whole process.

 

Usually, I fall into the "if had enough money to do this or to do that...".

 

When I spare some I rapidly forget the risk management rules and lose the stake altogether.

Thanks for your insights.

I am not clear as to how you select your instruments.

 

Ambiguity in a trading system is Fred's Playground.

 

 

 

A Playground

 

is a good place to take plunges,

and experience thrilling slides.

 

Good traders keep in mind

the difference between a playground

and a trading account.

 

Clip: http://www.warnerwilliams.com/

firstpage.html

Sun, 25 Apr 2004


Tribal Meeting Report

I'd like to report a successful first tribal meeting in New Orleans.

My daughter, 3 1/2, pushed her brother, 1 1/2 down onto floor in a dispute over a chair. He started crying. My wife didn't see what happened, but asked my daughter "What happened here?" She confessed to pushing him down.

 

My wife started to tell Her about what a bad thing that was to do, but before she got very far, I asked her to stop and, on a different tack, asked my daughter if she could feel how my son was feeling.

 

She looked over at him, and saw how sad and upset he was, and immediately started crying herself. She got it. (Her ability to receive is amazing.) He immediately stopped crying, and so did she, and she came over and gave her brother a big hug and a kiss.

Is this TTP?

Yes, TTP is an attempt to rejuvenate our abilities to send and receive to child-like levels.

 

One of the things that typically marks the passage to adulthood is the acceptance of the judgment that "you shouldn't feel that way."

 

When people experience their feelings, naturally and without judgment, they seem to discover  right livelihood, automatically.

 

Your actions reveal your intention to set your children free. Good work, dad !

 

 

 

TTP

 

Ckip: http://www.zveza-zdns.si/

slika%209%20children.jpg

Sun, 25 Apr 2004


Can't Keep It In


I would like to join a tribe, but finding none in this area, I intend to start such an intentional community in the New Orleans, Louisiana area.

I committed to this idea not long after I started reading FAQ, but was going to wait until after attending the Reno workshop to confirm to myself that it would be the right thing to do.

 

Well, as I have continued to read the FAQ posting the trend of my commitment to this
intention has continued to make new highs - I find myself unable to be bullish and not be long any longer - I must go with the flow.

Cheers,

 

-----

why worry when it's warm over here.
you've got so much to say, say what you mean, mean what you're thinking, and think anything.


oh why, why must you waste you're life away, you've got to live for today, then let it go...


-- Cat Stevens, "Can't Keep it In"

 

 

Welcome

New Orleans !

 

 

 

New Orleans

 

home of Mardi Gras, and the

Bourbon Street Bead Exchange

 

Clip: www.quarteresplanade.com/

Sun, 25 Apr 2004


Some Good Progress

Hello Ed,

I hope you are well.


Firstly, I would like to point out that you were 100% right about my authority drama, and the delay in my reply was due to me being so shocked to learn something about myself that I didn't already know, and trying to get some closure on it, before beginning TTP.

After my first attempt at TTP, everything is clear!

There were 3 main issues you pointed out,



Desire to be in control of others, ( also markets, not in the sense of moving them, but more like knowing where there are heading next )


Living my life as " an authority drama"


Liking to break the rules. ( we will try this subject in the next meeting )



Well, after getting very quickly down to the "nuts" of the problem, I realized these things about myself.

I like to be right
I like to better
I like to be efficient
I like others to think highly of my abilities, integrity, wisdom, trading prowess.....etc
I hate to be wrong
I love to win
I hate to lose
I like to be in control of things

There were two of us in the process.

I noticed how easy it was to lose the line of thought if the receiver talks, although one time the point made gave me an AHA.


While in TTP, I kept telling my receiver, "Ok I like to be right .............. but why do I?"
After a long silence then, while I was in my subconscious, looking for the reason...........I was in a mild trance state at this time...


Hey presto!!
When I was a kid, I was often told by my father " You are a fat head!" , "You did this wrong", "You are stupid!"......etc
Also any emotional comments from me were met with steely cold responses, which made me feel worse, and also caused me to block my own emotions off in the same way.

My father, was a good man, honest, hardworking, principled, and achieved great strides in electronics, (he became principle lecturer of his college and invented some new gadgets, after leaving his national service, lacked personal understanding, and could NOT show his feelings ( especially to me ) .


Strangely, his knowledge of electronics did not rub off on me, I could never get to grips with it, but my knowledge of mechanics could never be understood by his mind.
I learned a lesson from this example a long time ago, and that is, if a person has not the ability to do, or be something then, nothing can be done to change them.


As I grew up I made less and less mistakes and I would strive to impress him with knowledge, ability, human understanding, working with precision engineering, starting my own business, earning more money than him at the age of 23, proving my gambling skills ( after being told by him, that gambling is a mugs game.)

I obtained high regard from many people, but nothing I did would ever prompt him to tell me he was proud of me, he loved me, or he was impressed with what I had done. The most I ever got was " That's is good ".


He did however, compliment me greatly, while at dinner with some of his friends, as I was told by someone else who was there. I remember feeling elated to know that, but also curious as to why he couldn't have told me that himself.


I recalled one day, when I was doing extremely well at everything I attempted, being utterly in despair at the fact he still was not praising me, or telling me he was proud of me, like the fathers of most of my friends were.


I said to him, " what do I have to do to please you??!" His response, was surprising, " you are not alive to please me" meaning, its not important to please him.


In a way, I think this absolved him from the responsibility of having to give me a compliment, but I did feel somewhat better after this comment was made, as he was giving me permission to do as I pleased whether he liked it or not.

There was a long period of time, when I didn't talk to my father, there was a lot of friction between us, but when he died I was with him, and made my peace with him.
I have no feelings of resentment towards him now, as I know his childhood was not unlike my own, he didn't know any better.

So anyway, I came to realize as an AHA, that I am still seeking approval, still trying to prove I am not stupid, still trying to gain the respect of others, and all this is stemming from those early days.


The markets represented a fantastic opportunity for me to prove to myself and to others, that I am not stupid, so I realize now that it has been more important for me to be right, than to make money!

Wow, what an insight! .......and there was me, talking about so many stuck in a rut, proud, arrogant, traders who don't cut their losses, because they still think that their diving stock will turn around and prove them right.


My situation is slightly different, as I have can cut losses, and run profits, but I am more intent on as you say .......busy figuring out the probabilities of moves looking into the non existent future, because I needed to be able to say to myself and others, I KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT!

The funny thing is, that I had not even remembered these, deflating childhood memories for so long, and to get it all come back to me and tell me why I am like I am was an amazing revelation to me.

After getting the AHA, I felt great, like I am set free, like some long standing, arrogant pride, stubborn trait, a blockage between my CM and Fred had been opened up again, permanently vanquished from my character.


My receiver wanted to continue, and go deeper, but I felt completely satisfied that some major obstacle had been overcome, and wanted to stop.

Now, I feel the urge teach other traders about TTP, and help them to remove their destructive elements, although I know it may take a long time, for them to see the benefits of knowing there own inner selves a little better. All I do I wait until the are ready.

Thanks for your insights and for your excellent website Ed, you are doing a great service to the traders of the world.

I have a question for you, this is something that I have become aware of more so recently.


Ok, say I am long, and my trade is going well, making new highs, and the rest of the markets are starting to weaken, I frequently get a thought "drop into my mind" from Fred no doubt, saying to me , its time to sell.


These thoughts are more often right than wrong, but are occurring long before my system is exiting the trades, and when I later exit my trade at an inferior price, I reproach myself for not selling when the message was delivered.


These thoughts are not consistent with trend following, I know, but are my " wanting to be in control" aspects warning me, so I wonder whether to break the rules when they happen.


I mean, when it seems so inevitable that a drawdown is happening and also inevitable that the stop will get hit, I seem to have arguments within myself about whether to jump my system or stick to it.


I wonder if this is telling me to test a new modified system that allows more credence to be placed on the correlations between other markets, or whether to do something else?

Do you get ever these kind of thoughts?

Your feedback would be appreciated on these points.

Thanks again

Yes, receiving is an art, a delicate balance between encouraging the sender and giving him space to experience his feelings.

 

Unwinding deep dramas may take several trips to the hot seat, as snarled feelings typically inter-twine in self-protecting k-nots.

 

If you feel you consistently outperform your system, you might keep a diary of what you do, how you do it, and how well it works. 

 

If your hunch track record looks good, you can include modifications as an upgrade to your system. If not, it might just be Fred looking for a way to get you to jump your system and get some or another feeling.

 

See Chart pages for more on system development.

 

 

Your Real Trading System

is your set of k-nots

 

K-nots indicate feelings

you are unwilling to experience.

 

Clip: www.cs.mcgill.ca/~asolec/ intro.htm

 

 

 

 

Sat, 24 Apr 2004


Darvas

Hello Ed!

It is useful, when thinking chart-like, to pretend that you are Nicolas Darvas. 1957, sitting in Hong Kong , waiting for the copy of Barrons (weekly data) that was arranged to be air lifted to him. He picks his winners from afar, isolated from the noise of Wall Street. He does quite well.

In late 1956, professional dancer Nicholas Darvas runs $10,000 into $2,000,000 by using a simple trailing stop system.

 

During a good run for trend following, he picks Kent cigarettes, which introduces the menthol filter, Diner's Club, which introduces a photo-credit card, Raytheon and Thiokol Chemicals, both suppliers for the space race and the arms race and Texas Instruments, which introduces a clunky electronic version of the calculator.

 

 

 

Nicholas Darvas

 

Dances his way to millions.

 

 

Source: http://www.moneypore.com/

IcMiMktnich.htm

 

Clip: http://www.caths.org.au/darvas.jpg

Sat, 24 Apr 2004

 

Trend Following and Intention

 

Hi Ed,

I went to our local TT meeting with the intention, if given opportunity to work, to continue my work from previous time of experiencing my feelings around my power and lightness.

 

What happen when given the seat was "Fred" wanted me to feel what's like to experience my pattern of when something goes wrong, it must be my fault.

 

So, I went with that instead. I'm so glad and totally supported by our Tribe. Experienced aha's. Then later in our meeting, our intuitive leader used how I was approaching trading in past as example. It wasn't until my drive home that I realized that enable me to experience my meeting intention as a bonus.

Today, I realized that thanks to feeling my fault pattern I was able to see how I've shamed myself for my persistence.

 

By doing that, I end up looping and becoming obsessive about the issue. Crazy and wonderful aha. By befriending my persistence, I won't have to loop in my feeling back.

I love being in the now. Looking forward to the Reno workshop. Loving my prep work for it. Going to an awesome weekend.

Best,

OK.

Sat, 24 Apr 2004


CC of Inter Tribe Email

Feedback on Pollinator's Page


I read Ed's article on the pollinators page and it cleared up some things for me about how the process works. Ed's April first article for some reason really hit me hard about how the process works! I cannot explain it in words how clear that one article was to me for some reason. I will probably read it many more times in the next few weeks.

I still need to get someone in this area to practice the process with.

I am experiencing a drawdown at this time trying to adjust my holdings accordingly.

On another note ... Almost every oil, coal and energy stock has broken 52 week highs. Unless oil and gas prices turn around I am being extra careful with risk management at this time.

You can begin practicing TTP by being a good receiver for those around you; listen to them in a way that celebrates them being just the way they are.

 

You might want to be careful not to dump TTP on anyone as the "right way" to do things - as that just leads to more drama.

 

 

 

TTP

Tools of the Trade

 

 

Clip: http://www.arnold-family.net/

www/john/jason/html/lastlook.html

Sat, 24 Apr 2004

 

Pollinators & Workshop

Hi Ed !

The Pollinator's Pages look great !

On the workshop page it says "pre-Workshop assignment". Does this mean you would like participants to send this to you before the workshop? I recall that's what I did in October.

 

Since we are working on system design during the workshop, reviewing the assignments in advance might be very helpful for all concerned.

The assignments are for those who really intend to define their systems as part of the Workshop. 

 

See the Charts page for more on system definition. 

 

There is no requirement to "send the assignments in."

 

Defining a System Clarifies it

 

and dissolves questions

about what it is and how it works

 

and converts its application

from drama to right livelihood.

 

Clip: www.cis.gsu.edu/~dstraub/ Courses/RITI/define.htm

Sat, 24 Apr 2004

Re: your reply to What a Trip

April 22, 2004

Dear Ed.

One who possesses self proclaimed "God Complex" should take that feeling to
TTp session.

Sincerely,

TTP avoids the use of the word should; you might try going a day without shoulding on people and see what feelings come up for you.

 

You might also have some friends search the post carefully for evidence of "self-proclaimed God Complex".  You might think about how come you can see it so clearly.

 

The post seems to bring up some  deep feelings for you.

 

The only bone-fide sin I can detect in the post (on both sides) is abuse of the English language to effect plays on words; for that, your post may be well deserved pun-ishment.

 

 

 

It's Hard to Stumble

when you're down on your knees.

 

 

 

We have no Definitive Research

about whether praying standing up

has an effect on stumbling

 

 

 

Deep Feelings about Spirituality

 

Notice the spiritually correct

eyes-closed posture.

 

 

Clips:

http://userpages.wittenberg.edu/

s04.mdefabis/prayer.gif

http://skole.hinet.hr/

ss-rovinj-503/skola/prayer.jpg

http://www.fbckenner.org/cartoon/

slideshows/spring-summer/images/prayer.gif

Fri, 23 Apr 2004


PG-TT

Hi Chief !

Hope all is well with you and yours.

Here in Prince George, as Spring is evolving, we had our second Tribe meeting with one new member, so now we have four Tribe members, including myself.

 

Tribe is evolving. We start with drumming than we check in and than the hot seat.

 

The fellow on the hot seat was experiencing some of his feelings he wanted to experience for a long time and the rest of us received him, encouraged him, and learned from him, so we all benefit.

 

We check out by sharing our understanding of what has happened during the meeting. Experience becomes an AHA and the meeting adjourns. I am committed to the process and enjoying it. Thank you for sharing your wisdom.

Cheers

Good Work !

 

 

 

 

 

Something about Drumming

seems to gets all the Freds

in the same groove.

 

 

Clip: http://visit.nc.org/images/

civil_war/drum.jpg

Fri, 23 Apr 2004


Re: FAQ for you (Apr 8, 04)

To the sender of the Apr 8 FAQ:

I am feeling a genuine curiosity in learning evidences of all your claims. I am just curious. For example, as you claim, "Mainstream psychology now considers debriefing techniques as described on this site as counterproductive and perhaps dangerous," what is the mainstream psychology that you are referring to? (My fiancée has a master degree in psychology from Yale, and she doesn't quite understand the statement, and I'd appreciate if you may clarify)

Also, you write, "The anecdotes on this site which claim improvements in trading performance after application of the trading tribe process could easily be attributed to mean reversion. "May I please kindly ask you to provide your basis on such statement? I fail to see what seems obvious to you ( or how it is "easily" attributed).

Or, when you say "The treatment of trend as almost a law of nature is also highly suspect." How is it highly suspect? It is not Ed Seykota or TTP who has that observation (of trend-following). Two thousand some years ago in China Lao Tzu (author of Tao Te Ching) also came up with similar observation of going with the flow.

Here is what I learn from Ed's Jan FAQ, "Listening to others may do more to change their opinions than arguing with them."

 

I am here to listen to you with a genuine interest. I personally find TTP helps me tremendously and leads me to a whole new dimension. It makes sense (especially after reading the pollinator articles) and I am eager to further explore this concept.

 

I am not here to just listen to partisan literature that only shores up what I already believe and reinforces my prejudices.

 

I want to listen to opposition, which I believe if read with an open mind, may cause me to think.

 

John Bollinger once said to me, "If we avoid controversy, we avoid content." Please share your insights. FAQ is a classroom forum in which contributors can ask questions, become examples, and support each other (from ground rules), and I'd greatly appreciate if we may learn from your example, and perhaps eventually we may support you to take your feelings
into the process?

The post you cite does seem a bit argumentative: high on hostility and low on facts.  Its tone may indicate the poster's unwillingness to experience his own anger.

 

You might check if you are really feeling genuine curiosity.  Perhaps the tone of the post plugs you in to your own desire to "set the record straight" or to get the guy to see your point of view.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about it into the process.

 

Changing people or getting them to accept your views is not part of TTP.  TTP is a process of facilitating people who are already willing, to experience their feelings deeply.

 

 

 

If you find yourself applying TTP

to Cats Who Resist

 

you might consider

taking your need to do this

into the process

 

 

 

Clip: inlet.org/adwatch/ stella_marrs.htm

 

Fri, 23 Apr 2004

 

That Certain Feeling

Dear Mr. Seykota,

When in the process and the receivers ask the sender if he is willing to experience (a certain feeling) again and the sender says yes, what is the next step?

 

For me, I always have a curiosity to my feelings, and that leads to a desire to explore them, to learn them, and to see things from their perspectives.

 

So naturally, when the receivers ask if I am willing to experience a certain feeling, I'd say yes and I truly want to, but then I usually won't be able to experience that feeling again.

 

Instead, most of the time when they ask me the question, I just feel lost, not knowing what I am really looking for. (Even up to that point I have been able to experience the feelings)

 

Is that feeling "gone", or does it mean I have another judge (that only shows up when others ask if I am willing to experience again) blocking me?

Thanks.

Deciding in advance what feelings to experience sounds like CM trying to manage the process. 

 

This is a variation of the DIM (Do It Myself) process and doesn't go very far.

 

When you enter the process and feel lost, instead of feeling your "certain" feeling, you might consider just going with feeling lost.

 

When the feeling of lost disappears, you might find the certain feeling come back up on its own.

Fri, 23 Apr 2004

 

Request to join TTP

Dear Professor,

First and foremost, I would like to thanks for the willingness of reading to my email here.

I have found your resource ... the message published and the content really have the very very best interest by myself as concerned with our market here in Malaysia.

Do let me introduced a little about myself. I was graduated from [University] in England with a Bachelor of Science in Construction Management ( Quantity Surveying ) and I was actively involved into our local construction industry for 8 years and recently I resigned from my existing organization as a Director of Contract department because I have make up my mind to become a full times traders.

The purpose for me to write these email is to sincerely ask for a favor or assistance in some guidence for trading in our Malaysia Crude Palm Oil Futures ( MDEX FUTURES ).

 

Malaysia capture about 60 % of the World's Palm Oil Production. Our CPO market is presently for me considered having the most volatility price range compare with our Stock Exchange ( Share market ) and the rest of the FUTURES.

 

In my scenario, I do not know wheather Fundamentally or Technically Analysis to be based for putting up the trigger for a buy or sell order because I have been study the daily price for CPO Futures nearly a year times and I just can't find the relationship with either fundamendally of technically even with the Candlestick charting technique which I found quite useful in our Stock Market.

 

Still having some level of difficulty for buy and sell signal. Or perhaps the perception and interpretation of mine is not that sharp.

I ... am trying to create a spreadsheet by my limited excel knowledge which is still halfway doing it :( and perhaps need more months or may be years ! to complete it.

Could I join the TTP as a part of the member list ?

Please help !

Thanks & Best Regards,

TTP is a method; you cannot join TTP any more than you can join algebra.

 

I post a Tribe Directory for people who wish to lead intentional communities; I do not list members.

 

As a clarifying exercise, you might consider re-writing your post in SVO-p, until it becomes clear.

 

Perhaps you can enroll some of your colleagues from the University in England as your mentors.



Thu, 22 Apr 2004

 

Seykota Court

 

Hi Ed !

Check out the street names on the attached map of Phase 2 of my current real estate project.

 



Thank you for this honor - quite an  interesting development.

Thu, 22 Apr 2004


More Family Process, etc.



Ed Says:

 

If you can count on your aunt (who may be highly analytical, emotionally distant) to bring you deep into your anger about her personality - and if you can count on her to keep encouraging you to take your feelings about her to term - knowing you intend to get free of her influence - then maybe your Family Process can work.

Typically, people who intend to master TTP practice in a group without built-in protective agendas.

You keep posting this column with the latest chapter of your story; this indicates your intention is to invite TTP (and this column) into your drama, rather than to use TTP to dissolve your drama and achieve freedom.

Perhaps you wish to get agreement for your point of view, so you can further invalidate your aunt.


Yes. I acknowledge this is true.

You might consider confronting your aunt with the direct and quite devastating maneuver of putting your thumb to the side of your nose and saying, "Neener, neener, neener!"


Yes. She has control over me. I can't do it, directly.

Version #2: A clever man discovers that his skill at concealing his feelings qualifies him for a life in politics. He becomes Mayor of his town and appoints his aunt as Judge. She manipulates him into losing his temper in public and has him arrested for being too pushy and sentences him to attend anger management classes. He retaliates by writing a series of letters to the local newspaper.

Yes.

In cases where the sender (1) keeps complaining about his official drama and (2) does not move forward with TTP, the sender likely has a super - drama about being incorrigible.

 

A receiver with a knot of feelings about needing to fix others can easily fall into co-drama.

 

The receiver's TTP move, is to dissolve his own "need to fix" until he is clear enough to tolerate receiving "incorrigible" from the sender.

 

At that point the whole system collapses into bathos.

 

 

Collapsing in a Bath House

 

Incorrigible senders

are great teachers

for receiver wanna-bees.

 

Clip: http://www.navigo.com/wm/paint/

auth/ingres/turkish-bath.jpg

Fri, 23 Apr 2004


Consulting

Ed


Would it be possible to do one on one - if so please advise on some suitable dates for you

Many thanks

Now.

Thu, 22 Apr 2004

 

What a Trip!


I'm amazed at the number of correspondents who report that they stumble onto your site - it must be a trip. You might deploy some warning cones - someone could get hurt. I hope you get around to it before next fall.

 

 


Clip: http://animation.filmtv.ucla.edu/

students/awinfrey/coneindex.htm

OK.

 

 

 

It's Hard to Stumble

when you're down on your knees.

 

Clip: http://members.tripod.com/

~brinney99/inspr3.html

Thu, 22 Apr 2004


Semiconductors #2

see: Semiconductors below

 

Evidence I may be wrong ... symbol SEMI breaking today ...

You might define what you mean by "breaking today."  The stock you mention looks to be trading at about 5 times last year's low, still down about 2/3 from its all time high.

 

The time between this post and your previous post is about one hour.

 

This seems consistent with Fred hijacking your your "how it looks" system - in order to give you feelings about being wrong.

Thu, 22 Apr 2004

 

Funny Mentals


Hi Ed !

 

This fellow attempts to relate Bournoulli to Bollinger, fluid dynamics to market analysis, so I am forwarding.

 

-----

Volatility seems to be common theme here, especially among those who trade it. Perhaps I can offer an alternate way of looking at it. I tend to think of volatility as the pipe through which price must flow. The lower the volatility, the greater the volume that must be passed through a narrow range of price. Charts that show volume per unit of price are a good visualization. A simplified model of price flowing through volatility may be constructed using Bernoulli's equation (conservation of energy for flowing fluids) in conjunction with Bollinger Bands.

Bernoulli's Equation:
Pressure Energy(1) + Kinetic Energy(1) + Potential Energy(1) = Pressure Energy(2) + Kinetic Energy(2) + Potential Energy(2)

What is most interesting here is the counterintuitive notion that as volatility (or pipe diameter) decreases, fluid velocity increases and pressure DECREASES. You'd tend to think that as volatility decreases, pressure on price builds up. Actually, the reverse is true.

For the moment, let's ignore potential energy and focus on calculating the change in pressure on price when volatility changes. Details on all of the equations below can be found in the link provided.

Pipe Diameter = ln (BollingerBandLow /

BollingerBandHigh )

Fluid Velocity = Volume / (Pi * (Pipe Diameter/2))^2

Pressure Difference = ((Fluid Velocity^2 - Fluid Velocity(t-1)^2)/2)


As with the weather, changes in pressure can warn of a coming storm. I have found this tool to be most useful in forecasting areas of increasing and decreasing volatility.

As a final note, you'll need to figure in potential energy on your own. Think of Triumph of the Optimists as gravity and you're on the right track.

(Mr. Bollinger, I apologize in advance if I have duplicated any of your work or misconstrued the use of the bands. I have used all sorts of variables to define pipe diameter, from simple highs and lows to moving averages of the highs and lows. Your bands work extremely well for me in this application.)

Hmmm ... This B-association model seems to overlook Botticelli, Beethoven and the Beach Boys.

 

Note: unit balance is a quick check for equation consistency:

 

Pipe Diameter != natural log

 

Velocity != Volume / Distance

 

Pressure != Velocity

So none of the equations balance. The essay is consistent with an author who is unwilling to experience his own ignorance.

 

 

 

I think you could be

a little more explicit

here in step 2 where you state

"then a miracle occurs."

 

Clip: http://b.kutzler.com/bk/m-h-proof.gif

 

 

 

Thu, 22 Apr 2004

Semiconductors

Ed,

Some semiconductor stocks are starting to look weak to me.

The theme of the Workshop is "Defining Your System."

 

You might see if you can define the specific properties of stocks that "look weak" to you.

 

Then, you might also define the specific action you take in response to a weak-looking stock.

 

Absent specific methodology, Fred tends to hijack your trading to help you experience feelings you are otherwise unwilling to feel.

 

 

How Things Look

is Largely up to Fred

 

cartoonist W. E. Hill creates My Wife and My Mother-in-Law for Puck Magazine in 1915.