Ed Seykota, 2003 - 2007 ... Write for permission to reprint.

Ed Seykota's

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June 1-10, 2004


Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Wed, 9 Jun 2004

 

Update on Miami Tribe

Hi Ed,

The Miami Tribe is experiencing superb results. We have more focus than ever to the Process. Additionally, we now have 2 new members (totaling 6). These two ladies, not surprisingly, are very much innate with the Process. It feels wonderful to have these two ladies be part of our community and extend our support group.

From reading the Workshop feedback, we are glad to see that the workshop adds more clarity to the Process for those who are just restoring their natural capacity of TTP. Stay with it Tribe Members!

Keep up the great work Ed!

OK.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 9 Jun 2004

 

Worms


Hi Ed,

On Tuesday Jan 6, 2004, you respond to an FAQ with the following:

Ed Says: Beginning to experience some deep feelings, and then not following through to resolution, may awaken and re-energize your drama. If you get your can of worms open and don't put them to good use, you may need a larger can to re-contain them.

Will you define what it means to not follow through on the hot seat? This seems to be a potential Achilles heel for senders. Also, will you explain what you mean by "putting the can of worms to good use."

Thanks

Not following through means getting a Form partially developed - and then not going all the way to accepting the experience.

 

When you accept your Form, you find its positive intention, and see ways to put it to good use.

 

 

Worms and Forms

 

all want free expression

 

Clip: http://www.niehs.nih.gov/

kids/worms.htm

Wed, 9 Jun 2004

 

Missing Position


Hello Mr. Seykota,

I would love to work with you.

Do you have any positions available for a trader trained in literary criticism, law, and yoga ?

I worked for 3 years with a day trading firm in NYC and left when I faced and acted on the fact that it suited neither my capital nor my psyche.

 

I have read much of what you have written on the subject of trading, and would like to learn more from you in person and on the job.

Thanks for your time.

I am not clear, from your application, the type of services you might like to perform.

Tue, 8 Jun 2004

Asymmetric Trading

Regarding: 5/31 FAQ Shorts:

I find ... asymmetric long / short belief very interesting, and I'd love to hear more about it.

Try Google.  Warning: too much math-turbation can lead to trend blindness.  So don't count on it or you could become a prime candidate.

 

 

Sat, 5 Jun 2004

 

TTP Spanish Tribe in Miami


Hi Ed:

 

We feel that it may be a good idea to start a group applying the principles of TTP in Spanish. I'm writing to ask for your opinion and if you come down here, to drop in and enlighten us. so far we have four members with the intention of closing the group at eight. I would continue with the present group and run the Spanish group on Tuesdays. Your feedback is important to us, so when possible, let us know what you think. good talking to you.

Felicitaciones! Buena suerte con su tribu.

Sat, 5 Jun 2004


Programming


Hi Ed,


it was a long ago I read something about programming here. I believe it's a good thing to update the list at:

 

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/

Reference/books/index.htm 

 

with some titles on Object Oriented Programming and C++ (those you consider the best).

 

Programming is a great educational task: you learn to adapt yourself to the answer the machine gives you, to take responsibility for the result, to change your behaviour when the things don't work, to understand that, before all, is your attitude to make the difference and after, only after, your skills ...


I always follow you and the tribe, thank you for the time you spend and the support you give.

Follow the link to resources, above.

Fri, 04 Jun 2004


Toxic Parents by Susan Forward

I spent all of yesterday reading this book. What an intense day it was! I did the checklists on what I feel and what I believe in my relationship with my parents and I was shocked when I checked off most of the items. I even had to add some to the list! To help me fully realize and see the feeling and believing part I wrote them on paper. I went from sorrow to fury to outrage to annoyance to disbelief to shock and so on and so on ... in no particular order. I even got a headache during this time. After reading the book I now realize that my recurring headaches may not have been caused by lack of sleep but may be caused by repressed anger.

This book has certainly cast light on a lot of issues in my life. For example, I find it hard to make major life decisions without first consulting with my parents.

 

I need their approval first before I can proceed with my "grown-up decision". I've only just realized how fiercely competitive I've been with my siblings. I always had to be the first to do something: the first to get a job (at 13 years old?!), the first to graduate from high school, the first to graduate from college, the first to buy a home, the first ... well, you get the picture.

 

If given the opportunity I would probably be the first to wipe my father's ass. All because I want their love and attention and a twisted belief that if I work hard enough then my parents will be happy and proud of me. It brings tears to my eyes to think that my siblings may have understood what I was trying to do but they still gave me their unconditional love and support. I feel ashamed realizing that I've put my own needs ahead of theirs. I realize there is a lot of realizing going on here. Is this what you mean by having an Aha experience?

Thanks for allowing me to share this with the Trading Tribe team. Yesterday was an emotional roller coaster ride for me. It's not so bad today and I'm trying very hard to feel all the emotions.

Take care,

Your headache might be a good entry point for TTP - maybe fantasizing about making a decision without consulting an authority.

 

The typical TTP sequence:

 

Picking an entry point.

Developing the Form.

Intensifying the Form.

Abreacting the Form.

Identifying the Form's positive intentions.

 

Insights (AHA's) typically occur during and after the abreaction phase.

 

 

Your Headache

 

might be trying to tell you something.

 

Clip: www.terriblemovies.com/ cards/

Thu, 03 Jun 2004

 

Congo Tribe



Mr. Ed Seykota,

I live in Likasi little town located in the South of the RD Congo ...


I understand the importance of TTP for our life and consequently our trading.


I want to open a tribe here in Likasi.
I have no experience in TTP meeting and little background in psychology except the terrible experience of being a disciplined trend follower (experiencing the heat zone during my 6 years of trading).

 

I am aware that I am my only enemy in the market and the need to make peace with that guy if I want to become a successful person in life and in trading . I feel the urge for TTP meetings.


Is it suitable to conduct TTP meetings via the internet with some sort of  communication software?


This could give us a bit of experience to understand and start this African tribe.
As you wrote one day "learning by watching others and by doing" is it possible virtually ;<)


as an example:


My friends and I ... follow sometimes seminars organized by the CBOT presented by known traders.

I wait impatiently to read your book..

I thank you for what you do for us.. answering all this FAQs sharing your great wisdom and experience organizing workshop and making personal meetings.

kindest regards to you and yours

 

 

Welcome

Likasi, Congo

 

 

 

Yes, you can do TTP by internet, and you can  have sex by internet. Both are about equally productive.

 

Clip: http://www.khbo.be/pics/content/

nieuwsbrief/feb03/likasi.jpg

 

Thu, 3 Jun 2004


Radial Momentum - Article - Researches

RM website,

I wish inform You about [our Web Site].

I would appreciate if You consider to write a article for us about your experience.

Objective site explain most important and new theories on trading and finance.
Also I have academic collaboration in section Econo-physics. I am adding in these days new articles.

As reference my curriculum vitae:

Degree in Astrophysics, studies physics of finance, now I am studying Philosophy of Physics ( philosophy science university, details : interpretation of quantum mechanics).

Best Regards

Radial Momentum applies to physics in general, and to fluid dynamic lift in particular. 

 

See www.radialmomentum.com.

 

OK, here is an article for your site:

 

 

 

Trading Guidelines

by Ed

 

Trade with the trend

Ride winners and cut losers

Manage risk

Stick to your system

 

 

 

If you have trouble with #4, you might consider joining / starting a Trading Tribe.

 

Be sure to credit the article to FAQ.

Wed, 2 Jun 2004


Checking in  (System 3 Workshop Exercise)

Hi Ed,

Everything is going well, and I am committed to following my System 3 rules. My thinking is much clearer now, thanks to your helpful suggestions, and I am testing new ideas daily. I still do not have the technical capability to test everything that I intend to, but my software developer is being responsive, and I am getting closer all the time. I now have a new version of the software, and the remaining criteria for testing my System 3 rules is the next item on the developer's "to do" list ... perhaps "doing" list is a more appropriate term. I don't know how to "to do" anything.

Thanks again for your support!

OK.

Wed, 2 Jun 2004


End of Cheap Oil @

National Geographic Magazine


Great cover story on crude oil... note the bleak, artfully blackened landscape, with cars stacked up like lemmings driving off into the setting sun, the unknown, the abyss... pretty strong emotional content, to my lights.

Paul Montgomery suggests that such signals are stronger when a non-financial mass-circulation magazine picks up on economic or financial stories.

End of Cheap Oil @ National Geographic Magazine

 


Clip: http://magma.nationalgeographic.

com/ngm/0406/feature5/index.html

For more "It's gonna go up" news appearing around the recent top of the petroleum complex, see also:

 

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/

30/pf/autos/suv_hi_gas_prices/

 

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/

automotive/3322701/detail.html

http://www.poynter.org/

column.asp?id=2&aid=59282

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4363659/

http://www.freerepublic.com/

focus/f-news/1134779/posts

http://talk.livedaily.com/

showthread.php?t=391424 

If you Google "$3 gas," you get about 391,000 hits.

Wed, 2 Jun 2004


Fred: The Movie

Chief Ed,

Hi there. I just discovered this interesting movie title from 1991. It's that Fred guy, from the Tribe.

What's Fred doing in the movies... without CM ?

The Movie: Drop Dead Fred


But then she makes a strange discovery, in the back of her old closet is her old jack-in-the-box, covered in the tape her mother had put there to lock in her imaginary friend, Drop Dead Fred. Opening the tape, who should pop out? Not jack, but Drop Dead Fred!

Fred is stark raving mad, and out to cause as much mayhem as possible, but no one can see him but Elizabeth ... but Fred is back, because Elizabeth is terribly unhappy. In his own weird and wacky way, he is out to set Elizabeth on the right track.

 

 


Clip: http://images.amazon.com/images/

P/B00009NHAG.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

I have to assume that would be as in "drop dead gorgeous."

Wed, 02 Jun 2004


A Question

Dear Ed,

First I want to congratulate you for your site that I discovered 2 weeks ago via www.turtletrader.com .


Looking for risk management technique and sizing bets. I learn more this week then through my (5 years forex & futures index) trading.


I am impressed by your fantastic personality and vast knowledge in so many areas of life and trading and understand that the only path to become a successful trader its following your advise to stop FAQing around with yourself.


I live in the middle of the bush in RD Congo but I manage to install a V-sat (internet via satellite independent from local non existent Ip provider to be able to achieve my passion of trading).


I read few FAQs and started to write you an email then realized that you wouldn't answer me because you insist on SVO-p so I corrected it ... in SVO-p grammar and discovered in a few second how much problem I still have ... and that the central problem was me .. and what I wrote had to go to the trash bin.


I understand better today after reading the faq that uncertainty of the future in trading as in life brings anxiety confusion anger frustration...


I understand the importance of a plan (based on a back tested method or system) while if cannot predict the future at least lay down a list of strategic responses to accept my fear and greed and do what is required when prices reach those 2 psychological levels.


That list of strategic responses control me and not those events beyond my control .
I understand also the importance of trading with the trend or flow .. how can we make money if the price doesn't move .. and move and move.


I design trading systems based on trend using [Software] but don't manage to find a winning strategy over the long term .All these systems start loosing money after a while due to tremendous drawdown during those period of non trending period. Those big winners 5% are eaten up by those small but numerous loosers.


I am very risk averse and my comfort zone is .5 percent risk per trade and 15% max drawdown and I cannot apply it to a successful time frame (weekly euro$ forex)) with my equity . On too small time frame(4 hours chart euro$ on forex) its not a winning strategy (too many false signals) .


You talk about an optimum betting size in your article which I don't grasp because you say you have a return of 2 to 1 in a coin toss and me only a 1 to 1..;<)...must be an Ed Seykota hand made coin .. wish I could buy one ;<).


I am joking because I guess that its just an example of a 50% system with a 2 to 1 return.


I always find systems with [Software] which are around 40% losers to winners ratio with 1.73 ratio winners/ losers after fees and slippage. I also don't trust very much their program (the way they deal with trailing stops did the market went up before down concept) and the data that I introduce (difficult to find reliable historical data ).

 

I spend hours checking manually those systems with intraday data to achieve more confidence and also experience the feel of what it is to trade those system (long long period of drawdown).


But I don't give up to find a better system ..I know now that I have met you (my first mentor) and the tribe and that the problem is still within me .. and that I can see light for the first time at the end of my trading tunnel..


In the meantime while searching a suitable system (good winners to losers ratio around 60% and about 2.2 to 1 ...  keep scalping the market with a 1.6 target to risk ;applying a calibrated risk management of .5% risk of equity on 15 minutes time frame on the euro$ (forex market) watching a small trend to develop for my entry signal and trailing my stop until target is reached this to keep in touch with real market trading and training for discipline (non ambiguous entry placing stops moving stops applying risk management) .. but unfortunately still violating the basic rule of trend following... let profit run.


I apply also risk control (trying to avoid large illiquid volatilities period for my stops) I mean avoiding week ends (no stop) and fundamental reports around 9 to 10 am ET (big random shocks on forex (50% of the time comes back in few minutes to initial price and 50% of the time act like a infinite variable busting trend pattern (looks more like the take off of a shuttle then a trend) .
I guess its also a violation of trend following concept (according to faq) but I am not feelingly qualified yet for these take off especially that I am not always in the cockpit 50% of the time I am sitting in the tail and feel the heat of the engines on my ego and my wallet.


This ... until I find a reliable back tested trend following system with an acceptable drawdown which will give me the confidence to properly trade one day .


Please I have a question: you talk about fractal in time frame but when I check the price of euro $ the larger the time frame reaching daily and weekly the market doesn't have so many consolidation phase and small but devastating countertrend pattern its trending better and better and violating less and less the trend (less noise) this is terrible because does it mean that we are unable to trade successfully small time frame with smaller stop?

 

Does that explain part of the 90% losers unable (due to small equity )to trade successfully?? Or is that just again a wrong perception due to less data in larger time frame ??


Again thank you for sharing your insight teaching us to grow up in life and trading.
I have 2 wishes today be in the hot seat with you as a receiver .. at a TTP. And trade few years close to you ... to grasp a bit of your immense wisdom.


Lipschutz the successful trader pointed out one day the importance of who you meet in your life I fully understand that today reading your FAQ ... kindest regards,

I do not understand your question.

 

If you wish to clarify it, you might try presenting it to some friends, until they can understand what you mean.

 

 

 

Sometimes, Inducing Confusion

 

is clearly the intention.

 

Clip: http://www.pastemusic.com/images/

product/unscaled/1a%5B1%5D.confusing.jpg

 

Wed, 2 Jun 2004

 

Now with Feeling

Dear Ed,

These Zen Koans may be of interest to the FAQ.

Zen Koans: Transcending Duality

Every Day Is a Good Day
Unmon said: "I do not ask you about fifteen days ago. But what about fifteen days hence? Come, say a word about this!" Since none of the monks answered, he answered for them: "Every day is a good day."

No Cold and Heat
A monk asked Tozan, "How can we escape the cold and heat?" Tozan replied, "Why not go where there is no cold and heat?" "Is there such a place?" the monk asked. Tozan commented, "When cold, be thoroughly cold; when hot, be hot through and through.

Tozan asks Unmon what to do when the market trends. Unmon smiles and doubles up.

 

 

 

Ha Ha Ha - Aha Aha

 

Clip: http://marbella.to/humour/

sep00/smile.jpg

Wed, 2 Jun 2004


Article on Human Feelings

and the Perception thereof

Hi, Ed -

An article in the most recent number of the journal "Trends in Cognitive Sciences" seems to relate, if I understand it correctly, to TTP. It discusses how the perception of feelings is made up of the composite of many different visceral and somatic manifestations coming into the brain from various parts of the body.

The abstract of the article may be found here:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/

science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VH9  

In TTP we work with "Forms" that comprise emotions, somatic sensations, postures, thoughts, facial expressions, muscle tensions and body motions.

Wed, 2 Jun 2004

 

No Time Like the Present

Ed,

I have just read an article in which the author describes the ever-present Now - what I call "No time = no duration" - so succinctly.

I find myself thinking about an increasingly frequent question from my three & a half year old daughter ... "Is it tomorrow ?" She asks it nearly every day and perhaps it is a common question from kids of that age.

 

I patiently explain that right now it's today and that the next day is always tomorrow, but sometimes she gets upset and says "No, today is tomorrow", meaning of course that what was referred to yesterday as tomorrow has now arrived.

 

Do you think there is a way to explain the day to day meaning of "this mythical timeline" to a child, whilst keeping alive her innocent & natural experience of the ever-present Now ?

I appreciate this may be way off topic from a trading perspective, but in another way that may not be so..

Keep up the good work.

With thanks,

Your daughter's experience of tomorrow and yesterday exist right here in the now, along with everything else.

 

 

Julian Barbour

 

Slightly Ahead of His Time

 

In his book, The End of Time, physicist Barbour argues that part of Newton's and Einstein's legacies are a belief in the existence of time, a belief that is both convenient and false.

 

Clip: http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/

barbour/barbour_index.html