© Ed Seykota, 2003 - 2006 ... Write for permission to reprint.

Ed Seykota's

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March 1 - 16

 

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Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Wed, 16 Mar 2005

 

Follow Up

Ed says: TTP and drugs are different, even exclusive


Exclusive or perhaps identical?

 


Clip: http://info.med.yale.edu/neurol/

Richerson/Firing%20rate%20of%20midbrain

%20raphe%20neuron.jpg


Whether by TTP or by SSRI, if Livermore had access to either and resolved that pivotal moment in the Sherry Netherlands cloak room into a simple ďAha!Ē and walked out; it seems to me a better thing.

Ed Says: Without these cycles, everything stops, and dies.

I see that with or without these cycles everything stops and dies- eventually. And in doing so begins a different cycle?

I personally accept cycles as what is. Doctors, generally speaking however, are as varied a bunch as traders. I do draw a distinction between a physiologic cycle and a patho-physiologic cycle in that it proves useful in medicine and in trading.


Thanks Ed. As Iíve told you before, I learn something every time I talk to you.

Warmest regards,

Very Cool!

 

This looks like some scientific support for Breathwork, meditation and maybe even TTP.

 

 

Wed, 16 Mar 2005

 

Testimonial

Hi Ed,


Words do not even begin to do justice for what TTP continues to give me and my family. I humbly summit a huge THANK YOU.


P.S. I give full consent to use my name with this testimonial in any material that you wish.

FAQ does not reveal the identities of contributors.

Wed, 16 Mar 2005

 

Speaker for Investment Club

Good Afternoon Mr. Seykota,

I am the leader of an investment club in South Florida called the Cornerstone Investor Network. We are a volunteer
organization with no charges for meetings or membership. We have 75 members and growing.

I would like to know if you would have an interest in speaking to the club? Perhaps it can evolve into a trading tribe in [City] ...
perhaps you can promote your paid workshops.

The format for the presentations would be to your schedule. We have meetings
once a month and depending on the speaker they are held in the evening during the week for two hours or on the weekends if more time is needed.

 

All I ask is for you to share some educational material and a soft pitch about your workshops and services.

I look forward to your reply.

Thank you for thinking of me. 

 

I'm a little busy these days, however, with the Book coming out and the Workshop coming up, and all.

 

If you want educational material and a soft pitch, you might consider referring your members to this site.

 

 

 

Pitching Machine

 

When you own the pitching machine,

you can get exactly the pitch you like.

 

 

Clip: http://www.onlinesports.com/

images/ate-ih80847.gif

Wed, 16 Mar 2005

 

Bottom Dollar or Dollar Bottom?


The attached NEWSWEEK cover story "The Incredible Shrinking Dollar", coupled with the cover story article titled "Bottom Dollar" suggests the Dollar may be near its lows.

 



MSNBC - Bottom Dollar


Clip: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/

id/7170226/site/newsweek/

Nice Catch.

 

 

Wed, 16 Mar 2005

 

Trading Tribe Workshop ...

... is it right for a novice

Hi Ed,

I came across your site today because I started reading Trend Following (the book) two ways ago.

I am a novice trader. Been trading since October based on techniques taught by [another website].

 

I have not been successful. Trend Following makes sense to me intellectually and I want to learn it. Your May workshop in Reno sounds excellent, but I am wondering if its too early in my trading journey too attend it.

 

I get the feeling that I would be more likely to get aha moments if I had more experience. So it boils down to this:

* do you think it would make sense for me, a trader of 6 months experience, with 0 months of practical trend following experience , to attend this workshop?


Thanks very much Ed.

I don't know what makes sense to you. 

Tue, 15 Mar 2005

 

Arrogance is Trending Up

Dear Sir,

The tone of your FAQ responses is increasingly arrogant when compared with your responses from a year ago. You may consider taking that arrogance as an entry point in your next tribe meeting.

As most trend following systems are in new equity highs, your arrogance may be related to your trading system recent results.

Please do not destroy what used to be a wonderful psychological help site for traders.

I hope you can comment on your next tribe meeting on this issue at your website, as I seem to also become arrogant when my results are good.

Yours sincerely.

Perhaps you might help me identify your concern (1) defining arrogance and (2) providing an example.

 

At this point, you seem to be the one with a feeling about it.

 

In TTP the person with the feeling, concern or upset has something to work on. 

 

In TTP, if someone does not present an issue, we do not judge him and / or tell him he needs help.

 

 

 

Arrogant

 

One form of arrogance

is to try and fix someone else.

 

 

Clip: http://www.avon.k12.in.us/

ams-web/AmsFaces/ARROGANT.GIF

Tue, 15 Mar 2005

 

TT Workshop

Please,

I would like to receive information to participate in the workshop in May 2005.

OK - See Workshop Link, above.

Date: Tue, 15 Mar

 

Approval

Hi Ed,

 

I have been seeking approval from others my entire life, and used the trading business as an outlet.  Fred is sick of approval and it makes me nauseas now.

During the last year: I wrote an article for a well known industry magazine so that people could tell me how great of a trader I was, I opened (and several weeks ago closed) a commodity brokerage, I put on commodity trades that make (as well as lose) money for clients so that people would be in awe of my trading abilities. I no longer care about any of this stuff.


Trading is so simple that it is not even interesting anymore to discuss it with others. Some trades make money, some trades lose money, winners are bigger then losers, so what who cares what is the big deal?

This is a big step for me in life. I am content with just trading my own account and never telling a soul about any of the results, or trying to prove to the world what a trading genius I am by making people money above and beyond the commissions I would charge.


I feel this is wrong, and I hate the brokerage side of the futures industry. I charged people less then the going rate for commissions. I feel guilty for even talking to people trying to sell them the finer points of opening an account with my firm. People tell me I am too nice and don't have the guts for this business.

 

My gut says the same thing. I feel responsible should anything go wrong and a client ever lose money, so I try and have as few brokerage accounts as possible (which is why I only traded calendar spreads with clients to help nullify the leverage in futures and still maintain a very positive risk to reward ratio). Well it was an interesting drama to say the least ... I wish Fred hadn't cashed in my life savings for this drama though, but maybe I needed to cash it in to feel alive so I can struggle again. struggling = feeling alive.

I call my commodity brokerage a failure, and it is the first thing I have ever truly failed at in my life and I feel good about it. I am truly a failure now, which is apparently what I wanted to experience all along. I get to tell people I have a failed business. I am more humble and feel like I have limits to my abilities. I never felt this way before. I feel more content in life now, and at 30 years of age would like to start a family and focus on other things besides a career and making money which doesn't really matter anymore.

I am presently job searching for a full time corporate job, and in the meantime working 2 part time jobs at different factories, one of them being physical labor by loading boxes in semi trailers 5 days a week at a well known courier. I am more educated then anyone in the plant and have the lowest unskilled job possible.


I get to apply for entry level jobs and people get to tell me I am overqualified with a published article, an MBA, and the president of a failed brokerage firm.


Maybe I will get to load boxes forever which is really not all that bad and kind of satisfying. Maybe it is what I want time will tell. Now I remember seeing on TV several years ago some corporate bigwig who left his high paying job to go work on a catfish farm somewhere raising catfish, which he found more rewarding. I remember admiring him for it.

I remember a few years ago I always wondered what it would be like to work in a factory like my father and also stepfather.

 

Now I get to work at 2 factories part time while I look for full time employment, something that 6 months ago I never got to experience ... If I load boxes in semi-trailers for 4 more years they will give me my own truck to drive and pay me 40-50K, where I can deliver boxes to people in the residential areas on a route.

I feel alive by having to struggle at the moment to make ends meet. I no longer feel dead inside by working at a desk or sitting in a corporate cubicle rotting away... I feel youthful, healthy, and strong like I did in college.

I no longer have to try and impress my family since they consider me a failure now, or at least I feel they judge me in that way.

 

My whole life they never gave me any approval for the things I worked hard to accomplish. I feel ashamed and regret some of the choices I have made over the last couple years. All kinds of new feelings I have never felt before such as regret. But regret has a way of humbling a person I guess ... Up until the last year I had never felt regret or ashamed for anything I did in my entire life.

Now if Fred could set up some dramas with the feelingsof love and trust together, I think it would be very beneficial. Maybe I wouldn't be alone any longer.

Thanks again Ed. Someone truly wise once said everyone gets what they want.

One way to deal with feelings of not being able to please is to "fail on purpose" so you don't have to meet expectations.

 

Another way it to experience your feelings and convert them from adversaries to allies.

 

This is hard work and almost impossible to accomplish on your own. 

 

Your Tribe can provide and maintain a field of acknowledgment and validation in which you can experience your k-nots.

 

 

 

Failing

 

is a form of succeeding

in falling short of expectations.

 

Clip: http://discover.edventures.com/

images/termlib/f/fail/support.gif

 

 

Mon, 14 Mar 2005

 

Registration

My intentions were to be first on the list to register.

 

What really happened was my husband (63 years old) was admitted to the hospital and ended up having open heart bypass surgery.

 

Waited a couple of weeks to make sure he was doing fine and I could fulfill my commitment to the seminar.

I would like to attend the May seminar and will be mailing you a check with the information sheet today.

From Intentions = Results, we have that your real intention is to comfort you husband during surgery and to possibly attend a Workshop thereafter.

 

Your priorities seem about right to me.

 

 

Family

 

The essential tribe.

 

Clip: http://www.punchstock.com/

image/brand_x/2191305/large/bxp52255.jpg

Mon, 14 Mar 2005

 

Understanding Fred

Dear Ed,

I have so much that I want to say and ask and I don't know how to start. ... I guess I'll start with gratitude. I am very grateful to you for sharing your wisdom with the world. You have created a 'space' (for lack of a better word) for people to learn and grow. Thank you for that.

 

I am grateful for the members of my tribe in [City] who are unfailingly supportive and fearless in their quest to get to their AHA's.

About the k-nots, intentions=results, AHA's, Fred, hot seats, I am having trouble getting to an AHA, I am not experiencing my k-nots, my results certainly do not equal any intention that I am aware of, and my Fred seems very elusive and uncommunicative.

I want to say that "I just don't get it" but I know you'll tell me to take those feelings into a hot seat. But to be honest with you I don't know what that means.

 

I have had 1 hot seat experience and it was an emotional roller coaster. I experienced anger, resentment, heat, embarrassment, cold, loneliness and sadness in that order. I don't think that I got to an AHA.

I am committed to establishing a relationship with Fred but she seems so beyond my reach. I know that she is producing the results in my life that I find so undesirable but I don't know how to reason with her. I believe that I'm on the right track and I will continue but do you have any suggestions for what else I can do to invite Fred's wisdom into my CM?

Thanks again for all you've shared.

Best,

Understanding Fred is incidental to the process.

 

Wanting to understand Fred can hinder the process - unless you are willing to experience the wanting.

 

If your wanting to understand is in a k-not, it produces a not-knowing drama as a result.

 

You seem on the right track with your emotional roller coaster work. 

 

Next time you are on a roller coaster, during the first descent, you might try screaming at the top of your lungs. 

 

Experiencing fear in this way, makes it disappear.

 

This approach also works with other feelings. 

 

In the TTP model, Fred doesn't share wisdom with CM.  Fred shares feelings with CM.  CM experiences them.  CM helps re-program Fred.  This collaborative process generates wisdom.

 

 

Fred Exports Feelings to CM

and CM provides Guidance

 

The collaboration generates wisdom.

 

Mon, 14 Mar 2005

 

Reno Workshop

Hi,

I was visiting the site and was wondering what the difference in Price is about. The Reviewer Price vs. the Standard Price?

I have been trading for 1-1/2 years with nothing but losses and not trading plan that I have found that is successful.

 

I have a wife with MS in a wheelchair and need to stay close to home, but if I don't figure this out I will be forced back to work soon and I would rather learn from the best.

I am interested please let me know.

A reviewer is a graduate of a previous Workshop.

 

The Workshop requires you to be away from home for a few days.

Sun, 13 Mar 2005

 

Questions Regarding May Workshop


Couple of questions regarding the upcoming workshop:

1. What is included in the fee? Workshop only? Workshop + meals? Workshop + meals + room?

2. I have no trading experience, although I am familiar with some aspects of money management - worked as independent software consultant for two money management firms on operations software, one of which I started with a partner who did the actual managing [I also wrote the code which implemented his buy/sell signals and maintained the database].

I've decided to develop a trading system with the aim of trading full time. This is something I have wanted to do since the mid 70's, but have not pursued - other than co-founding the investment business in the mid 80's with a friend. [He has continued to run the business as a money management business]

I don't see constructing a trading system as particularly difficult - I have some facility with computers and system modeling - given today's hardware and the ready availability of data. Issues of execution and psychology are another thing.

Given these meager details, do you think your workshop would be worth the investment at this time or at some later point?

3. I would pre-order your book if I could find out how to do it from your web site - but it escapes me.

1. See the Workshop page for details.

 

2. I do not know how to value the Workshop from your point of view, over a range of times.

 

3. The order page for the book is due to appear March 31.

Sun, 13 Mar 2005

 

Batting Zero

Ed Seykota

You have overlooked Noether's Theorem on conservation laws.

Put simply, it states that the ONLY INDEPENDENTLY CONSERVED quantities in a classical dymanical system are those conjugate generalized momenta that correspond to generalized coordinates which have the property that the Lagrangian of the system does not depend upon them. All other constants of motion are necessarily functions of these.

Examples:

The time coordinate had the conjugate momentum which is the energy. If the system does not depend explicitly upon time, then energy is conserved.

Each of the three components of linear position has a corresponding momentum that is conserved provided that the the system does not depend explicitly on the associated position.

Each of the three components of rotation has a corresponding angular momentum which is conserved if and only if the system does not depend explicitly upon its rotation coordinate.

Furthermore, these three, energy, linear momentum, angular momentum are the ONLY independent constants of motion for a classical system. (Actually, there are seven, 1 energy, 3 linear momenta, 3 angular momenta.)

An obvious counterexample that shows that radial momentum is NOT conserved is provided by the explosion of a bomb. The parts start out at rest, then they all start moving out radially.

Sorry, you are batting exactly ZERO on this issue.

In 1915, David Hilbert asks Emmy Noether to help him with some math.

 

She winds up clarifying some conservation principles for Einstein's theory of relativity .

 

In my Radial Momentum work, the velocities are much less than C, the speed of light, so Newton works just fine, thanks.

 

Conservation of momentum does not indicate that momentum cannot change. A body tends to conserve momentum until a force acts upon it.

 

The bomb exerts a force on the particles, scattering them radially, establishing Radial Momentum. 

 

The Radial Momentum continues to carry the particles away from each other, resulting in lower particle density, hence less pressure.

 

Per your score keeping in which I am batting zero, you might be so kind as to tell me what game you think we are playing.

 

If it's a guessing game, then I guess you are angry about something.

 

 

 

Emmy Noether (1882-1935)

 

Clip: www.mathpages.com/ home/kmath564/kmath564.htm

Sun, 13 Mar 2005

 

Trader Certification Program



Dear Ed,

I want to thank you again for all the insight you gave me during our private consulting and the last workshop. I will never forget the knife and the aircraft analogies you showed when we had diner together!

My trading has improve tremendously by using trend following technique (based on weekly charts) and by being able to follow my system applied to that time frame with proper risk management (0.5%) per trade and some diversification.  (Forex Index mini future oil mini future) because of psychological support from your FAQ and our little Tribe of 4.

 

I don't trade mini gold because there are no stops available!

 

I received a 65k account from a client with 45K at risk and 20K for margin. We agree on 300k virtual portfolio. The 45k are 15% risk for drawdown and I place 1500$ (0.5%) risk stop par trade.

Ed says:


I am planning to announce a Workshop schedule, a Workshop Trainer Certification Program, a Trader Certification Program and a Book, all in March.


Please I have two questions for today FAQ?

A) Can you please give me some insight on my money management for the above account?

B) Can you please tell me (develop) a bit what is required to be eligible for the Trading certification program?

Kindest regards to you and yours.

Thank you again for the FAQ and for sharing your great insight with us.

I am planning to announce a  Certification Program later this month.

 

FAQ does not recommend specific system parameters. See Ground Rules.

Sat, 12 Mar 2005

 

Book


Ed:

Is your book still targeted for the end of March, and how can I order it?

An order form is due to appear March 31.

Sat, 12 Mar 2005

 

Question

Mr. Seykota,

I have read several books on trend following. I have placed money with trend followers and have done well. I believe in it. There is a question that has bothered my thinking lately.

 

What keeps coming up in my mind is hedge funds or managed futures and the amount of money that is coming into these.

 

The more hedge/managed futures funds, managers, trend following traders and trillions of money coming in, the less the trends will run or fall for a given period of time and the less trends there will be available to trade.

 

What do you say? I am very curious.

Yes, markets trend sometimes and sometimes they don't. 

 

Trend followers don't try to predict these phases.

 

You seem to want some sort of trend-following method with an extra fundamental Gizmo to make it work better.

 

 

 

Fundamental Gizmo

 

Things aren't always

as black and white as they seem.

 

 

Clip: http://www.r2-d2.org/

My%20Props/Gizmo.jpg

Fri, 11 Mar 2005

 

How's my Chances

Dr. Ed

I have determined that my personality is suited for day trading.

Do you think I have a better chance of changing my personality for mechanical trend following systems or creating a successful day-trading system?

I don't know of a day-trading system that succeeds for very long.

 

 

 

 

 

The Chances of Changing

are rather DIM

 

unless you join a Tribe.

 

Clip: http://www.cincypost.com/

opinion/images/jeff081699.gif

Fri, 11 Mar 2005

 

TT Workshop

Please,


I would like to know when will happen the TT Workshop.

It happens in the now. 

 

See Workshop link, above for more details.

Fri, 11 Mar 2005

I Did It!


Good morning Ed,

I have fulfilled my April 2005 ďIncline Village Breath Work WeekendĒ commitment to the Tribe and to myself.

Also, see the 2005 Proclamation commitment below at:


My 2005 Proclamation

Here is my 2005 Proclamation.

I am committed to trading my tested mechanical system with $100,000.00 in equity by April 2005, and sharing my monthly account statements with [Name]. I am providing my account statements listing my positions and total equity to him for a period of 5 months.

My intention is trade the North American Futures market and to follow all signals generated by my computerized system unconditionally.


I am a Futures Trader.

On March 10-2005 I made the last arrangements to setup my Futures Trading account.


I received a signal on March 9-2005 to go Long Oats for 3 contracts.

So I purchased the May-2005 Oats yesterday (March 10-2005)

I am following my system without question. (Signals/Money Management/Risk Control)


I have reached a milestone in my trading. Nothing could feel better right now. The feeling of accomplishment is overwhelming. I feel like I am floating and I am enjoying this feeling!!! Is this what right livelihood feels like?

The ongoing encouragement and commitment to support me from my home town Tribe has been fundamental in my achieving this milestone and I thank you all for this.

I wish to thank you Ed, for empowering me, and letting me find my own way.

I thank you all for your support.

Yes.

Thu, 10 Mar 2005

 

Response to No Respect

 

see: Feb 11 No Respect



Ed Says: "You might consider taking your feelings about "needing a little help" to a
Tribe meeting as an entry point."


I don't need group therapy because I don't need to change anything about myself. I applaud all of my strengths and weaknesses because they make me
what I am.

Commodity Corps helped an awful lot of people, including yourself, to become
trend followers. The Turtle course helped even more people. I received no help. I bought a course and I set to work.

Ed Says: "None of the properties you cite as "reasons" indicate a profitable system or an ability to stick to it."

The system is being offered for sale. It is up to the purchaser to stick to the system.

I am offering for sale the supreme efforts of an honest and hardworking man, who is trying to make his own way through life.

 

Is that a crime Ed?

FAQ does not endorse people or commercial products.  See Ground Rules.

 

I do not see any evidence that your system produces profits.

 

I suppose there is no crime in selling it, particularly if you make full disclosure about it's limitations, and yours.

 

For example, in your previous post, you make a promise to never write me again, that you break in this post.

 

Your behaviour is consistent with k-nots about anger and humiliation.

 

One way to get you to consider attending a Tribe meeting might be to forbid you to go.

 

 

 

A Seat Under the Tree

at the Apple Exchange

 

gives you a license

for-bidding.

 

Clip: http://www.wcg.org/lit/

images/kt/forbid.jpg

Thu, 10 Mar 2005

 

Judges, Happy and Grumpy


Ed,


Can you clarify the difference between a happy judge and a grumpy judge? Can you give an example to help me understand the concept of judges?

Thank you for all you give.

A happy Judge is one you are willing to experience.

 

 

The Happy

is not in the Judge

 

The happy is in your view

of the judge.

 

Clip: http://www.haskell.org/happy/Happy.gif

Wed, 9 Mar 2005

 

Testimonial



Hi Ed

I trust you and your family are well. I had a new addition to my family three weeks ago ...  7lb 3ozs ... Result =intention!

More good news, the [City] trading tribe had its first meeting last week. There are two members and we intend on meeting every two weeks. The first meeting was very productive for both of us.

Here is my testimonial, rather late but hopefully of some use

I first met Ed two years ago and soon realized he had something that I
wanted --- and it was not money! He understood what he and his life were all
about.

 

After attending two TTP seminars I have made some progress towards this goal too. TTP is a simple concept to understand but requires serious effort to adopt into one's daily experience. The reward for me has been a greater awareness of "the now" and satisfaction with my life. I experience my feelings which gives me clarity in my decision making. My dramas are very short lived since I am aware of myself denying a feeling. I understand that these knots can only be resolved with the help of others in a tribe setting and have initiated a local tribe.

Through TTP I have seen my world around me change. TTP has been a crucial tool to help me be a more patient parent, husband and son. By being in the now and receiving my children's emotions I have experienced unconditional love, forgiveness, being open-minded and pure pleasure.

 

My life is simpler since I spend less time trying to figure it all out instead I just go with the flow and try to stay in the now. I am no longer waiting to get to any destination but experiencing the journey.

Thank you Ed for all your support and effort. You are making a big difference.

OK.

Tue, 8 Mar 2005

 

AHA


For me a recent AHA - the simple things are all that I need.

A simple breakout will get me involved in a market as well as Bollinger, Williams, CANSLIM, Slim Jim, yodels, ring dings and Capín Crunch.

 

If a trend occurs and I maintain my position, as the Old Turkey would, and I exit when the trend breaks down, then I will participate in the trend. I donít care why.

 

When I get involved and a trend does not occur I may lose money. Thatís pretty simple. Get in / get out. Sometimes a dollar gained sometimes a dollar lost.

Canít control the behavior of the market, so stop trying.

Canít predict a future that doesnít exist, stop trying.

Elliot, kondratiev the delphic oracle, nostrodamus, hammers, dojis, 3 wise men, r2d2, the tin man, santa claus, cup and handle, flag, idiot lines, wedge, roast beef and cheese, they all work yet none of them work, though, I like the roast beef and cheese wedge with mayo and tomato, Iíll have that for lunch, instead of staring at charts and patterns and crystal balls all day.

Seems to me, the underlying constant behind any successful trader is mental and fiscal risk management.

 

I have a bit of control over that.

 

Understand, margin, rollover, contract specs. Risk a specific percent of total equity per position, base position size on the dollar value of risk over dollar value of current range, trade non-correlated markets. Thatís where Iíll concentrate my effort. Explain my system to my ďno numbers pleaseĒ wife, then to my kindergarten and nursery school children, start with a small amount of capital, experience drawdowns feel them in my gut, behind my eyes, like Iím buried in mud and my muscles are useless.

 

Feel some trends, my stomach is in knots, I wanna take it off the table, itís painful to watch it day after day, thereís a divergent bar should I take my profit, the volume is not supporting this move, the cci came out lower than expected, the futures are going haywire, my head is spinning, quick go to the FAQ page, settle down, check the turtletrader site, pick up Reminiscences Ö, Old Dickson, walk away, ashtanga asana, ride the mountain bike, stick with the system Ö now find a local Tribe and take it there.

Iím just getting started and it feels great to be on this journey, see ya on the trails.

Nice.

 

 

Santa Breaking Out

 

Clip: http://www.greetingsfromsanta.com/

art/santa_bursting.jpg

 

 

Tue, 8 Mar 2005

 

Traffic rank for www.Seykota.com



Hi Ed

Your site has a great traffic rank at Amazon's Alexa.com:

http://www.alexa.com/
data/details/

?url=seykota.com

Congratulations on the community you have established.

Thank you for the head's up.

 

 

 

In the Internet Race

 

FAQ is solidly ...

 

somewhere in the middle.

 

Clip: http://www.bac81.com/images/

4th%20Race%20at%20Del%20Mar%20Web.jpg

Mon, 07 Mar 2005

 

Hypnosis Question


Dear Mr. Seykota,


While reading the last FAQ I noticed on the Dec. 10 e-mail that you are working with hypnosis.

 

My question is: Is the trance during a hot seat experience and hypnosis the same, and can there also be an aha moment when the person comes out of hypnosis.

The only thing that stays the same is that things do not stay the same ... at least, not for very long, unless they do.

 

 

Three hours we're on this, gentlemen. 

If I fall asleep now,

it will be from boredom.

 

You can induce trance through boredom. Also through confusion. Also by intention.

 

Clip: http://cartoons.claude-marillier.net/

calendar2004/hypnosis.jpg

Sun, 6 Mar 2005

 

Ahas from latest tribe meeting

Hi ... Ed.

Our latest [City] tribe meeting leads to several ahas for me and a better understanding of how the trading tribe group process works.

Our first hot seat shows up late, but with the most live issues, arising from some difficult people and difficult situations at work. He works through a number of forms related to anger, which I perceive as extremely quiet and inwardly-directed. The tribe leader asks him about any judges keeping this anger down. I sense that these judges must be very strong indeed, as I can barely detect the quiet anger coming out from underneath.

While this is going on, the cramps in my stomach grow stronger. I take the hot seat next, as my issues are now coming to life. In retrospect, after the meeting, I see that the stomach cramps are part of the judges I use to keep down a seething rage and avoid lashing out at everyone around me.

 

On the hot seat, I move very quickly past the stomach cramp form and into a tightness in the chest that hit me with excruciating pain a couple of days after our last tribe meeting. I had never experienced this particular pain before, and its intensity disturbed me.

 

On this hot seat, the tightness in my chest resolved into an extremely strong form of flailing my arms around in circles and laughing hysterically. Laughter is one of my common defenses against difficult people with ridiculously high expectations of what needs to be done, which I now see is related to the first tribe member's situation.

 

On the hot seat, I then move through numerous forms related to anger and erupting rage. These forms grow very loud and vigorous, shaking hands and arms, stomping feet, smashing the chair against the floor, growling, and so forth. I appreciate the tribe leader's encouragement in expressing these forms, as I feel rather ridiculous at the display, but if feels good to get it out.

 

The polarity process reveals a relationship between the hysterical laughter and erupting rage forms; at the tribe leader's request I put them together and come up with a chillingly powerful diabolical laugh like something a villain would perform in a movie.

 

I work through the various forms again, and they resolve themselves with me on the floor, under the chair, using my left hand to pound out various rhythms related to the drumming from the start of the meeting. The hot seat experience ends with my back on the floor and feet up on top of the chair, feeling very much calmer and more peaceful.

As we check out from my hot seat, the first tribe member with the anger issues points out that I was consistently putting more energy into my left hand than my right hand as I went through the various forms.

 

He explains that the left side represented where we take things in, whereas the right side is where we send things out.

 

I miss the reference for this, but find that it very accurately describes my situation. I ponder that comment for a couple of days, and reach the aha that I am taking things in from people all around me and have very little outlet. The list of people dumping work and emotional strain on me includes my clients, my supervisors, my co-workers, the people working for me who keep pushing their work back up on me, my daughter, my parents, and sometimes my wife, although that relationship continues to improve the fastest as the TTP process proceeds.

The third tribe member then takes the hot seat. He has been working through procrastination issues the past few meetings, making more progress each time. He moves through various familiar forms of frustration and delay, and then he gets to a strong display of determination and, eventually, a form that represents getting things started. The tribe leader then guides him through various possibilities that might follow getting started, and the hot seat is okay with all of the various possible outcomes. I am happy to see him making progress on these issues, and I sense that he is now ready to really get going.

Today, as I reflect on all of this, I am beginning to channel the intensity of my seething anger into determination and getting started. What I really want to do right now is work on my trading system, and I've not allowed myself any time to work on it because of the extreme pressures at work and at home. But I clearly need this outlet. In the long run, trading will support me in a more balanced lifestyle that fits with what I want to do and enables more time with family and friends. I can not and will not let short-term pressures at work and at home prevent me from moving toward my long-term goal of trading for a living.

So, today, I'm spending time restructuring tasks for people who are working for me, and putting the work back onto their plates in a way that they can do it quickly and efficiently instead of dumping it back on me. This should keep the flow moving at work, instead of backing up onto me. In my family life, I have a concrete plan for dealing with some very longstanding issues that have been building up for decades and will reach some substantial resolution two weeks from now as I skip the next tribe meeting to fly to my hometown and finally deal with these issues now.

 

In the meantime, I commit to making space in my life to work a little bit on trading each day, to keep the momentum going and provide a necessary outlet, as I channel this pent-up anger through determination into getting started.

Thanks to you, Ed, for creating this process; and thanks to [local Tribe leader] for being a great tribe leader and helping us all surface and deal with our issues. As the weeks go by, I see more and more how it helps to work together as a group, and that one tribe member's problems often hold the seeds of another tribe member's solutions.

OK.

 

 

In TTP We Lend a Hand

 

mostly by acknowledging others' forms,

 

not so much by explaining things.

 

 

Clip: http://www.physics.umd.edu/

lecdem/outreach/QOTW/pics/k1-12c.gif

 

 

Sun, 6 Mar 2005


Trading is not a Career;

it is a Passion

I have been fortunate to have worked at [Bank] for the majority of my professional career. I have held numerous positions in the  ...  group, focusing on funding, interest rate risk management and portfolio management/trading. I have had the opportunity to develop extensive knowledge of the Capital Markets, I have been able to transact and manage positions in the financial markets but most importantly I have devoted a large part of my working day to studying the movements of the markets and researching the factors that influence market movements with the intention of trading the markets for a living.

I am competitive, independent and continually striving to develop all aspects of my personal and professional skills. I have reached a point in my life where I wish to take the great leap forward and trade exclusively. I seek a dynamic environment that will allow me to trade fixed income, currencies, equities and commodities. I seek a challenging, rewarding and exciting environment with people who are dedicated to learning and profiting from their passion for the markets. I am extremely confident of my abilities and hope you may be able to forward my resume to a small/medium macro hedge fund that is expanding and seeking additional traders.

This letter and attached resume can only provide minimal insight into the person I am and the desire I have to become successful trader. I would appreciate any assistance or advice you may offer.

Fundamentalists like "to research the factors that influence market movements."

 

It appears you are a fundamentalist.

 

I know a lot of Trend-Traders who depend on fundamentalists to take the other side of trades, especially when they break to new highs and lows.

 

 

 

Fundamentalists

 

like to figure out ways

to enrich Trend-Traders,

 

Clip: http://www.multexinvestor.co.jp/

cms/img/analyst-1.gif

 

 

 

 

Sat, 5 Mar 2005

 

New Book


Dear Ed, I'd like to order the new book. Thank you. Thanks for all the help.

Details of the book and a way to order it are due to appear March 31.

Fri, 04 Mar 2005

 

Anticipation


I feel anticipation while waiting for my Tribe to be posted on the tribe directory.

The listing for your Tribe appears now. 

 

I suppose you can continue with your anticipation, by wondering if the listing might disappear.

 

 

 

Anticipation

 

is worrying

about the non-existing future.

 

Forgiveness

 

is giving up

on having a better past.

 

Clip: http://www.bluelavaart.com/

bluelava/images/anticipation...jpg

Fri, 04 Mar 2005

 

Time, Price, Volume, # of Trades


Chief Ed,

The "past" is a memory, the "future" does not exist. OK.

The most common price representations used now plot price against time.

Now for the question:

Do constant-volume, constant-tick, momentum bars, and other time-independent chart representations provide a more accurate representation of actual price action ?

Every time you look at a historical price chart, the time is exactly now.

 

The framing (format of the chart) has little to do with the accuracy of the representation.

 

The accuracy of a chart has to do with the skill and dedication of the scribe who prepares the chart.

 

 

 

Scribe

 

A diligent scribe

can de-scribe a market accurately.

 

An indolent scribe

just scribbles.

 

 

Clip: http://www.celticemporium.co.uk/

images/scribe.jpg

Fri, 4 Mar 2005

 

A Sure Buyer

Hi Ed,


are you planning to receive pre-orders for the new book and sell it directly ? Please, put my name on the list !

I have no waiting list.  I am planning to post an order page on March 31.

 

 

Fri, 4 Mar 2005

 

Charts Link is Down

Hi Ed,

Your link for charts is not working.

Yes.

 

The Beta Test is complete.  I am planning to bring up a chart service about mid-year.

Thu, 3 Mar 2005

 

Getting Out


I have one problem in my method which is that I donít know when exactly to get out.

Maybe, until you figure it out, you might be very careful about getting in.

 

 

Finger Trap

 

Good training

for getting out of markets

during limit moves.

 

Clip: http://www.stumpyoriginals.com/i/

Wood%20Toys%20Games/

Chinese_Finger_Trap.JPG

Thu, 3 Mar 2005

 

Trade Using Only the Price

Hello,

I have a question about trend following time based breakout entry method and position sizing:

Measuring previous price volatility to manage risk involves analyzing previous price moves which are predictive and prediction is wrong, isnít it wrong to adjust position sizing according to past data?

I use a price based entry method to buy and sell on fixed intervals:

- Buy at fixed intervals above low.

- Sell at fixed intervals below high.

- Change intervals if new low or high occurs to get better buy/sell starting points.

- Stop-loss 50% below buyers and 50% above sellers at each interval buy/sell point.

- I Buy and Sell at the same time regardless of hedged positions in order to always get the best buy/sell price until a big trend develops.

- I never attempt to reduce the stop loss in order to preserve equity because I want the price to bypass the stop-loss in order to buy at the same interval point again (it is better to lose profit from below the interval sell/buy point than to lose from above the interval sell/buy point because you will be holding more positions above that point, so we prefer losing from the smaller profits than losing from the bigger profits)

- I buy and sell regardless of hedging in order to always get the best price when big trends happen in any direction.

By measuring the optimum profit across the buy/sell intervals against the losses that accumulate on the way I can know how far I am from the optimum profit; so I can decide to exit with minimum losses or maximum profits.

Am I on my way to financial ruin? You know best, please let me know what you think.

Attached are some examples. Please donít hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.

Regards,

Trend-following systems use historical data to trigger buying and selling in the moment of now. 

 

None of this requires prediction.

 

TTP does not judge right and wrong.  See Ground Rules.

 

Judgments tends to appear in k-nots, and determine your real trading system.

 

I am having some difficulty following your system description. 

 

For some feedback on its clarity, you might try explaining it to a teenager.

 

 

 

Clarity Tester

 

If she understands your system,

it might be simple enough

for you to trade.

 

 

Clip: www.rauzier.com/ joanna_teen.htm

 

 

 

Wed, 2 Mar 2005

 

No Respect

Ed Says: "You might take your issues about wanting respect and feeling denigration to your Tribe as entry points.

Until you resolve these k-nots you are likely to continue entraining drama that delivers these feelings as your payoff."

Did you ever consider the guy just might be looking for a little help? And did you ever consider just helping him with no strings attached? You should consider trying it sometime.

 

Carrying around a backpack loaded with advice, k-nots, issues, drama, Fred and TT talk may not be required or desired for everybody's hike in the woods.

FAQ does not endorse people or commercial products.

 

The party in question has an on-going pattern of sending me examples of ambiguous systems and then asking for help in marketing them. 

 

When I suggest a path he might try, for himself, he becomes angry.

 

His pattern is consistent with someone with a humiliation-knot.

 

I agree that TTP does not fit everyone's back-pack. 

 

People who show up on this site for a hike with me, generally pack TTP - to lighten the load.

 

You might consider taking whatever irritation you might have about my approach, to your Tribe, as an entry point.

 

 

Humiliation

Some people keep humiliation in a k-not and then go to great lengths to set up justifications to experience it.

 

Clip: www.beyondintractability.org/ m/Humiliation.jsp

Wed, 2 Mar 2005

 

Early Reader


Aloha Ed:

I just finished [proofreading your Book]. I couldn't put it down once I started reading. It's awesome. A great summary, a burst of creativity that can spawn a re-tribal-ization movement.

You could create additional understanding and more emotional transmission of TTP with a DVD or CD of the Tribe processing a form.

 

Tuck the CD in the jacket of your book.

It's the How-To manual for a movement that uses TTP to transform the world of support groups.

I'm enthused about attending the May Tribal Process.

I am considering taking some motion pictures (with permission) at the May Workshop.

 

 

 

TTP - DVD

 

 

Clip: http://www.ru-eschweilerhof.de/

downloads/SuSE-DVD.jpg

Wed, 2 Mar 2005

 

Measuring stick-to-it-ive-ness



Hi Ed,

Regarding trading, what do you propose to measure to determine your own stick-to-it-iv-ness? By comparing the actual results with the paper-trade theoretical?

 

Thanks.

You can use simple comparisons to determine your variation from a trading plan.

 

You can also use your own stomach - since you know in your gut when you jump your system.

 

 

 

The Gut

 

A good place to look

to find your real trading system.

 

 

Clip: http://www.geocities.com/

krinklyman/gallery-gutfeeling.html

Wed, 2 Mar 2005

 

[City] Tribe meeting

Hi Ed,

I trust this finds you well.

I write to report on the proceedings of the [City] Tribe meeting ... all 3 members are present. We check in as usual, and describe our feelings in that moment of now.

I take the Hot Seat at today's meeting. I spend a few minutes describing my issue to the Tribe members.

My issue is: I have 2 kids - 16 and 14 years old, students in the 12th Grade and 10th Grade respectively ... My wife and I have - for many years - desired to make available to them the option of going to college in the U.S. - an option that would cost us more money than we can presently afford. Now that our son is coming to the end of his school career, he has himself begun to express a desire to go to college in the U.S. Suddenly, the prospect of having to fund his college education is staring me in the face.

I have noticed that there have been numerous instances recently, when I have
thought about how I am going to (and, more important, IF I am going to be able to ... ) fund his college education. However, whenever these thoughts come to mind, I experience a strong feeling of fear. I notice that I do not give myself an opportunity to think the situation through, but instead just blank it out of my mind, blank out the feeling of fear, and skip to some less unpleasant thoughts.

I wish to use my opportunity on the Hot Seat to experience that feeling of fear, and request the Tribe members to help me to experience a feeling that I seem to be routinely suppressing.

I spend my first few minutes on the Hot Seat describing my issue to my Receivers. During the course of my "description" of my issue, one of the Receivers asks me how the feeling of fear feels. At that point, I try and jump into the somatic manifestation of that feeling.

I am feeling heat in my stomach, a burning sensation in my gut. So I tell my Receivers of the heat, the burning sensation. They help me to track that feeling. However (and I don't tell them this yet), I also feel like I have not finished describing my issue to them. Thoughts about my issue (at a logical level, not a feelings level) continue to occupy my mind, and I am finding it difficult to concentrate on the feeling of burning in the gut.

They continue to help me track my feelings for the next 20 or so minutes (that's about how long it felt like to me), but I am torn between tracking my feelings (heat in the stomach, tightness in my head, pain in the back of my neck) and a nagging thought that I have not finished describing my issue to them. So, well after starting the Process - when one of my Receivers asks me how I feel - I tell them that I have some nagging thoughts at the back of my mind. (I wish I had done that earlier!) They ask me to describe those thoughts. And I do so.

And I describe the thoughts going through my mind. And then I see a vision (my eyes are closed) of my wife - whom I love so dearly, and who is the most beautiful person in the world to me. I tell them about the vision. And THEN those nagging thoughts just disappear!

And then I am able to focus solely on my feelings - no more distractions, just feelings.

Over the next hour or so, I go through various forms - rubbing my stomach to ease the burning sensation, rocking my body in my chair, stretching my arms and legs full-length, massaging my thighs, intense tightness in my head, pain in the back of my neck, a deep pain in my eyeballs. On various occasions, a feeling of calmness seems to be descending upon me, but my Receivers prod me further, and the feelings begin to resurface.

Finally, after about 75 minutes on the Hot Seat, I begin to feel a more lasting feeling of calmness and relaxation. My Receivers stop provoking me to feel my feelings any more, and I soon open my eyes.

Though I do feel calm and relaxed, there is a slight feeling of discomfort too. I describe my experience to my Receivers. One of tells me he thinks that I would have gone on for much longer if he had pushed me further. Because of the feeling of discomfort I have, I tell him that I think he is right. That the feeling of relaxation is not complete.

Ed, when I look back at my experience since that Hot Seat session, two things strike me:

(1) In the 2 days after my Hot Seat session, my head feels very heavy (extremely unusual for me) and my eyeballs hurt intensely. This pain stays with me for 2 full days, and makes me very uncomfortable. I also feel emotionally very raw and vulnerable, and there are times when I feel like crying (for no reason!). I also feel very sensitive to the people around me. And there is a feeling of lethargy in me that I am enjoying.

(2) When you asked us at the November workshop in Reno what our limits to growth are, I had listing "Not Sticking to my System" as my biggest limit to growth. The good news - no, Great News - for me is that I have taken every signal since returning in November, have taken every Entry, Exit, Profit and Loss the system has given me, and have not felt the desire to override, or second-guess my system at any time.

 

I am fascinated by this transformation. I do not know "how" this has come to be. But it has. And it feels GREAT!


Thank you.

God bless you, Ed.

Regards

I gather you are untying some profound k-nots. 

 

Some of your carry-over symptoms such as appear in your head and eyes can make excellent entry points for your next session.

 

 

 

Thinking

 

can be in a k-not too.

 

 

Clip: http://www.itrc.ucf.edu/

conferences/fetc2004/images/thinking.jpg

 

 

 

 

Tue, 1 Mar 2005

 

TTP Results

(forward from [City] Tribe)


Fulfilling my promise, here is a summary of what happens between my first and second tribe meetings:

At the first meeting I work on some tension in my neck and constriction in my throat. I identify a set of muscles in my chest that connect to these issues. I find that my posture improves immediately. My chest expands more, projecting greater confidence. My singing range lowers a note or two. I snore a bit less and require a little less sleep. I experience more of the positive nervous energy that I associate with being excited about a project. My wife notices significant positive changes and comments on them repeatedly.

A headhunter contacts me out of nowhere soon after I finish reading the FAQ pages, and I schedule an interview. I begin to acquire my largest sales lead stream in years, with people calling me or knocking on my door each day to offer me work.

I study all of my historical trades, attempting to measure slippage and see where the profits go. I also chart profit by market and group (e.g. currencies, grains, etc.). To my amazement, I find that although my results are near breakeven overall, I make huge profits in some groups and huge losses in other groups. Small foreign contracts cost me the most, in particular LME metals. I also find that most of my broker execution problems occur in these small foreign markets. Meanwhile, the larger foreign markets like the German Bund perform as intended, providing some of the diversification I seek.

I also see that a good chunk of my historical losses come from broken publicly-available systems that I no longer trade.

I re-balance my portfolio, dropping the consistently unprofitable market segments. My trading account moves up slowly and steadily, up 5% in two weeks, with 8 up days and only 2 down days.

Again out of nowhere, an old friend contacts me and asks me to manage a substantial amount of money for him and some of his friends. I rekindle my interest in fund management and start making a checklist.

Thank you so much for starting and running our local tribe. I commit to continued growth and success.

Yes.

 

 

 

Untying k-nots

 

is the work of the Trading Tribe

 

 

Clip: http://www.thispiratekillsfascists.com/

photos/npr/knot.png

 

Tue, 1 Mar 2005

 

Donchian

Dear Mr. Seykota,

 

Did Mr. Donchian follow every signal in his 20-5 moving average cross-over system or did he use specific filters or modifications?

Donchian, like a lot of system traders, has a record of taking some trades and not others.

 

 

Filters

 

Some are Mechanical

 

Some are Emotional

 

 

Clip: www.bondiappliance.com/ online_ordering.htm

Tue, 1 Mar 2005

 

US Steel Data

I'm trying wish to obtain a data file of US Steel containing Open High Low Close data including historical data back to 1915, preferably in either Metastock or CSV format.

Do you know where I might be able to get hold of this?

Regards,

You might try the obvious places, like a data vendor and the US Steel accounting department.

 

 

 

Elbert H. Gary

(1846Ė1927)

 

U. S. Steel begins operations in 1901 under chairman Elbert H. Gary. Gary and Morgan buy out Carnegie's steel company and combine it with Federal Steel Company. To this nucleus they add American Steel & Wire Co., National Tube Company, American Tin Plate Co., American Steel Hoop Co., and American Sheet Steel Co. In its first full year of operation, U. S. Steel makes 67 percent of all the steel produced in the United States

 

Clip: http://www.ussteel.com/corp/

about.htm