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Ed Seykota's

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May 21 - 31, 2005

 

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Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Tue, 31 May 2005


Whipsaw Song



Hi Ed !

Do you have any more verses for the Whip Saw Song?

 

The Whip-Saw Song

by Ed Seykota, Easan Katir & Friends

 

(To the tune of The Crawdad Song)

 

click for midi sound file

 

(chorus)

You get a whip and

I get a saw, honey.

You get a whip and

I get a saw, babe.

You get a whip and

I get a saw.

One good trend

pays for 'em all.

Honey, sugar baby, mine.

 

(verses)

 

What do we do when the

drawdown comes, honey?

What do we do when it

gets really big, babe?

What do we do when it

gets even bigger.

We stick to the plan and keep

pulling the trigger.

Honey, sugar baby, mine.

 

What do we do when we

catch a trend, honey?

What do we do when we

catch a trend, babe?

What do we do when we

catch a trend?

We ride that sucker

to the end.

Honey, sugar baby, mine.

 

What do we do when the

market breaks through, honey?

What do we do when the

market breaks through, babe?

What do we do when the

market breaks through?

Our stops are in,

so there's nothing to do.

Honey, sugar baby, mine.

 

How do we know when our

risk is right, honey?

How do we know when our

risk is right, babe.

How do we know when our

 risk is right?

We make a lot of money and

we sleep at night.

Honey, sugar baby, mine.

 

 

 

Ed's Banjo Hottie Orchestra

 

Sound: http://members.fortunecity.com/

ajsmidi/allsother/allp_c.html

 

Clip: http://www.multcolib.org/

guides/ormusic/mandolinwsmall.html

Tue, 31 May 2005

 

Cool Cat


Hi Ed !

At the Workshop I realized a feeling knot in my throat that has been there for years is animal-like, which I've previously never been willing to fully acknowledge.

 

I recall becoming a large cat-like creature on the hotseat. It is really cool to accept this big part of my nature. There's not much more explanatory story.

 

Part of me is just like a big cougar or jaguar. That's all. Kind of surprises me, as the personality I usually think of as "me" is very different.

To fully get into it, as of this weekend I now have a big new cat. See photo:

 

 

Jaguar

 

Purr-fect.

Tue, 31 May 2005

 

Chart links - Where's the Beef?

Hi Ed,

In response to "Where's the Beef?" posted on Wed, 25 May 2005.

I have found chart links under Donchian, Fractals and Borderlines, and Search this Site. I hope this helps.

The Charting Page is under construction.

Tue, 31 May 2005

 

Training


Respected Sir,


I am a beginner. I want to be your trained student. i want to take apprenticeship program from you.


i want to work with you for more years.
i have been to your website. Here is my query... does the Trading Tribe teaches the trading skills?


i want to learn the trading skills. so what should I do?


can you give me one-to-one training to be successful in trading.

FAQ does not tell people what they should do.  See Ground rules.

 

Also, see ground rules for information on private consulting.

Tue, 31 May 2005

 

The Trading Tribe Book

Dear Ed,

I hope you are well.

Could you please confirm when your new book 'The Trading Tribe' will ship (if it hasn't already)?

Thanks so much for making your new book available, I am very excited to read it.

Books generally ship within one or two days of receipt of your order.

 

To receive an email confirmation of shipment, with tracking number, be sure to include your email address in legible format.

 

 

The Trading Tribe Book

 

Now in Print

 

 Tue, 31 May 2005

 

Even Higher Returns,

Considering Holding Period



Hi Ed

I note with interest the White Paper on "Superior Returns from Average Indicators" by Easan Katir. I believe the paper is an excellent demonstration of the benefits of a trend-following system over the buy and hold approach. The paper is clearly structured, and the parameters necessarily simplistic for all users to easily read and understand.

I believe the paper could have been even more powerful in its demonstration of the benefits of a trend-following system, without compromising simplicity, had it considered holding period as a factor in the system's performance measurement.

The paper indicates that a buy and hold approach would deliver an ending equity value of $7.0m, while a 50 / 200 crossover system would deliver $15.5m. While the crossover system is impressive, and clearly superior to buy and hold, what is even more impressive is that this would have been achieved while being "long", or in the market, only (approximately) 75% of the time, while buy and hold implies fully invested at all times.

Without considering holding periods the ending equity values stated in the paper imply a 13.9% return for the buy and hold strategy over 15 years, while the 50 / 200 crossover system would have achieved 20.0%.


However, if the crossover system was only in the market for 75% of the time, this performance increases to 27.6%.

A system which delivers 27.6% over 15 years with a starting equity of $1.0m would result in an ending equity value of over $38.6m. In my opinion, this is an even more powerful demonstration of the benefits of using a trend-following system.

Of course, this all assumes that other equally profitable opportunities are evident when we are not invested in the QQQQ security, but I believe the principle holds true.

See Studies, via Resources, above.

Mon, 30 May 2005

 

On the edge ... AHA

Hi Ed,

My hotseat session last week offers the most insight since I start to work with TTP 2 years ago.

I volunteer at our meeting that I at times I am unable to control my anger/frustration which manifests itself in the form of me lashing out verbally and/or physically. Often the catalyst is an argument between my wife and nearly 4 yr old daughter or just plainly my daughter not listening/doing what I expect her to do. The reason I take this to the hotseat is that 1. it scares me that I can act like this 2. I am aware that there are some feelings I am not willing to experience, although I do not know what they are. As an added note I want to be clear the lashing out is never in the form of direct contact with my wife or daughter, but rather something like me hitting a table or counter. This hitting out is enough to scare the crap out of my daughter as well as leave my wife wondering who this person really is. I do not like when this happens or the fact I cannot control/stop when it is about to happen.

I explain to the tribe I generally consider myself a 'laid-back' person and do not like the feeling of frustration that leads to being 'out of control.' The tribe take me through some role playing about how it feels to be an outsider looking at someone abusing their wife/child and how it feels to be the child. In addition they provoke me by simulating an irritating experience that may be the catalyst to get out of control.

I am amazed at the result that comes out of the tribe supporting me. At first I refuse to feel the feeling of being out of control. I explain that is not a feeling I like. The tribe jump all over me! They get me to feel the feeling of just before I am out of control. Then the process manager gets me to feel the feeling once I am out of control. Next is where the huge AHA occurs. The process manager gets me to slowly feel the feeling of becoming more and more out of control and then with further tribe encouragement to go over the edge. Holy sh.t that is it. AHA light bulbs burst left, right and center. It is that feeling of being on the edge and then going over the edge that I really like, but refuse to admit or acknowledge. I tie together nearly a dozen previous hotseat sessions as a great feeling of AHA works it way through my body. I can substitute that on the edge and going over ( i.e make the bad choice) with several situations. It can be anger as a result of a daughter that does not listen, it can be choosing to eat a donut as opposed to an apple even when committed to a healthy diet, it can be an attempt to pick the bottom of a market and breaking my trading rules despite commitment to follow my system and many more. All these actions tie in to my previous unwillingness to feel the feeling of being on the edge and going over.

I finish my hotseat session exhausted but thrilled.

OK.

Mon, 30 May 2005

 

Polination, Book, Backtesting


Hi Ed,


Thank you for letting me attend the session of IV TT.

I notice the work right now is mainly with forms, almost no talking.

 

The process manager is keeping the sender on track, the receivers are offering relentless validation of whatever the sender is into at the moment. They jump on the slightest _expression of feeling encouraging the sender to amplify it, go further, keep doing it.

 

As soon as the sender is expressing a form, probably before he is even aware of it, they cheer him on "do more of this, yes, good job, nice".

 

The sender knows when he has enough of this form and he stops. Then the next form and the next till he runs out of forms. At this point the process manager makes an inventory of forms asking the sender to repeat them separately, then to repeat them simultaneously, all at once - reintegration of all forms.

 

After the sender is done with this, he relaxes, calms down, the issue is no longer bothering him. The solution is simple and it is just a matter of taking steps to implement it.


My first surprise came when you begin to drum. The first stroke was strong, loud, clear. First I thought it was to loud, then I realized it expresses the intention of going into whatever is going on with full involvement, no hesitation, full blast drumming and the session that followed had a similar qualities.


My hot seat began with me trying to wiggle out of it. I said "I am here mainly to observe" ( after stating twice that I want to get on a hot seat) .You "grab" my form of moving my arms as I say that and I experience the sender's hesitation first hand. I realize my attempt to be polite and not take up the time of kind people who let me watch them is just another form of resistance and is being processed like everything else. One of the receivers says" just be willing.". I am.

 

So I go into this form, then the next one and so on. The process goes on till I am sure I have enough of each form, nobody stops me half way for any reason, they support me to go all the way for as long as it takes. After my last form you ask me if I like it. I say "yes". He asks if I want more, I say "yes" and go into this form some more. I do not need this form as much as I need the encouragement to go into whatever I do, so I stop quickly. I am done. I thank everybody, I am grateful. After reintegration of all forms I am relaxed, peaceful, nothing bothers me, I know issues exist only in my head and my head is clear, clear of all issues. I like it.

 


The IV TT is very efficient. In about four hours five people were able to work their stuff out. Amazing.

I finished your book. Nice work. Congratulations. It is easy to read, simple, to the point and every sentence has a meaning. It is a book with a purpose. Thank you for doing it.

I also have a question: What is the purpose of back testing? The way I see it is we can test the past. This may help us place the trades and exit them. Back testing assumes that past is similar to the future. But it is just a matter of perception.

 

Some people see the differences, some similarities. Things that work or rather WERE working , may stop working the next second and vice versa. I find out that the more data I add, the worse the results. Maybe I just do not know how to do it properly.

 

From the feeling standpoint back testing may offer hope that the trades we are placing may work out in the long run, despite poor current results. Now, here is my idea: if we can get this feeling, let's say hope, if we can experience it in the TTP, then we do not have to back test anymore.

 

It may save a lot of energy. We can bring the hope or whatever it is through the form and voila, trade is placed. Now we are just watching the trades, make sure we do not bet too much per trade, exit losses quickly, let profits run.

 

The trend can be defined only after it has happened. Whether it continues or not, no one knows and any amount of back testing will not tell us that.


I also think that back testing may stop traders from experiencing uncertainty. In this way if back testing is part of the overall method, it confirms that the systems or methods are made up of feelings we do not want to experience.


So my question is maybe of personal nature: what the back testing gives you? Everybody can only answer for themselves.

Thanks again to you and all the members of IV TT for support, sharing and help.

Back-testing does not test the markets.

 

Back-testing tests your system. 

 

The discipline of back-testing helps you define your system rules.

 

Back Testing

 

requires some effort

and results in definition.

 

Clip:http://www.building-muscle101.com/

images/squat.jpg

Mon, 30 May 2005

 

Historic High Paper


Dear Ed,

This is an excellent paper, thank you for making it available to all.

I had the good fortune in May 2000 to be given this input by you - to buy the historical high breakout; I remember myself cringing at your insistence that a 52 week or 104 week high or any other multiple thereof is NOT the same as an historical high.

Despite having such a great regard for your trading abilities and wisdom, I could not bring myself to test / incorporate this into my trading, and proceeded to demolish my trading account in the ensuing global technology meltdown.

Since April 2003 I use this rule as a primary filter / screen; (after a good three years of hiding - yes, both interpretations of the word are valid here ).

Although much more testing is required, I am happy to report that sanity has returned since FAQ has reiterated this input, as well as answered many of the questions I failed to ask in May 2000.

Thank you Ed for your continuing inputs - which make me a better person and a better trader each day.

Sincerely,

OK.

 

If you wish to publish original work to this site, email me.

 

Works appear on the Studies page, via the Resources link, above.

 

 

Mon, 30 May 2005

 

Request to reproduce and 419ers


Hello Ed,

I am writing to request your permission to reproduce a few or your pearls of wisdom. The ones I have in mind, are these pictures and your comments that are with them.

1. Pictures of the donkey and cart that is unbalanced with the heading "New high ground".


2. The positive intention of fear is risk control.


3. The plover.


4. Risking 100% and watching it closely.

I like all these, because they really make the point very clearly. If there are others I want to post, then I will request your permission again.

Also if it is acceptable to you, I would like to place a link to your site when my site is completed.

 

-----



Regarding the trading tribe, I have not had a single email for over 4 months from anyone regarding joining my tribe.

I look forward to hearing from you. Thanks again for your great website, it is an inspiration to me and many others.

I do not own the clips that appear in FAQ.  For permission, contact the owners, via the references below the photos.

 

You may link to this site.

 

If you wish to start a Tribe, you might contact some people you know, have them read FAQ or the Trading Tribe book.

 

 

 

The Trading Tribe Book

 

Pretty good reading

for new Tribe members.

 

Clip: www.tradingtribe.com

Sun, 29 May 2005

 

Wisdom

Ed,

Everything you seek to teach is defined in a single parable; it is the essence of wisdom in understanding the markets:



What do you offer me in return?

 

I notice you do not ask for anything in return for your wisdom.

 

 

 

Wisdom

 

comes from the collaboration

of CM and Fred

 

Clip: http://newmexiken.com/images/

2004/10/WhyNovember.gif

Sun, 29 May 2005

 

Divine Ordinance & Higher Purpose


In a Jan 2003 FAQ, Ed writes:

Faith in a system, rational self-confidence, sense of destiny, divine ordinance, life mission, dedication to a higher purpose, right livelihood ... all describe the feeling of traders for whom trading is not just something they do.


Hi Ed,

Can you please elaborate on what you mean by divine ordinance? Is that in a religious sense that you're carrying out God's will?

Also, can you also please elaborate on the higher purpose? Can you also share with us what's yours please?

A religious person might frame his mission as divine ordinance.

 

People who work through their k-nots tend to connect with their purpose, in a deeply satisfying way, no matter what they call it.

 

In this moment, my mission is writing this reply.

 

 

 

Feeding of the Five Thousand

 

Devotees may see

communion, sacrament, sacrifice,

salvation and spiritual nourishment.

 

Others may see

fish and chips.

 

Clip: www.sidic.org/english/ dossier/sederMaryKelly.htm

Sun, 29 May 2005

 

The "Why" of a Goal


Dear Ed,

It seems to me that most NLP practitioners  advocate asking ourselves the "why" when we set goals. For example, "why" accomplishing this goal is important.


They seem to suggest that knowing the "why" of it gives oneself a higher degree of motivation (e.g. I am doing it for my family) and thus have a stronger will to get through obstacles.

From what I've been reading from the FAQ website, you are not a why-type of person for that is usually an indication of a fundamentalist and generally meaningless.

 

I can understand that with regards to the stock market.

 

Do you find it equally meaningless in asking why to learn the motives in setting goals?

 

What's a more effective alternative to set a goal then in your experience if we don't ask why and seek the motives? Many thanks.

Many people set goals out in the non-existing future and then pose why questions about them.

 

In TTP we create a snapshot, hold it in the now and experience the k-nots between us and our snapshots.

 

In goal setting, the unit of measure between you and your goal is time. 

 

In the snapshot process, the unit of measure between you and your snapshot is k-nots of unwillingness.

 

 

 

Whys Guys

 

tend to get lost

in their own their brains.

 

Wisdom

comes from integrating

heart and mind.

 

Clip: http://enchantedmind.com/

images/brain_capacity_graphic.jpg

Sat, 28 May 2005

 

28 May Snapshot Report

 

I recall walking by this house many times over the past six months. I never see any sign of life. No people. No cars. No lights on.

 

After the Thursday afternoon snapshot process at the IVTT, on Friday I drive directly to the house from Incline to take a picture of it. I see two people at the end of the long driveway. I introduce myself and ask to take pictures of their home.

 

They agree. It is a retired UC Davis professor and his wife. They tell me the house was built in 1887, but they have lived in it "only 42 years."

 

Here is a picture.

 

 

I notice you are not in the picture. 

 

Asking for permission to photograph a house is very different from asking the owners to photograph you in front of the house.

 

 

In the TTP Snapshot Process

 

you facial expression

can be the essential part

of the picture.

 

Clip: http://stellargraffiti.com/

My%20Pictures/Pzb%20Photograph(er).jpg

Sat, 28 May 2005

 

Workshop Feedback


Ed


Once again a powerful experience.


It's truly amazing how a virtual group of strangers are coached and supported to bare their souls in the quest of the "Holy Grail" ... to KNOW thyself.


You provide and demonstrate a risk free environment where we feel safe to say and do anything. 


Where would I be and what would the world be like if this technology were taught in school?


I have waited quite a while to send you this. I left the workshop quite alive and excited. A few days after coming home and going back to work that changed.

 

I have been exhausted, unsettled and have an overwhelming feeling that I have way to much on the go to be proficient at anything. Anyone who knows me would think this odd, as I am considered quite proficient at my job.


I am trying to experience these feelings to the fullest and am experiencing a bit of an AHA.


The positive intention of these feelings may be used to align my daily routine with my snapshot.


The workshop has left me with some powerful tools that I am employing in my life.


Thank You

Yes.

Fri, 27 May 2005

 

Wife Approves of Workshop


I am in a great space after the workshop. My wife loves you!!

Congratulations for deepening the connection in your Essential Tribe.

 

 

 

When the Connections are Tight

 

the lights sometimes go on

 

when the lights go off.

 

Clip: http://www.universital.com.br/

brasil3d/galeria/imagens/turn-on-high.jpg

Thu, 26 May 2005

 

Stuck Sender


Dear Ed,

After so many hot seat sessions, do you have an estimate of the average duration of a hot seat session?

In a 2/6/04 FAQ you mention that "A stuck sender indicates a stuck receiver." I am not sure if time is a good measure of "stuck-ness", but I don't know what other alternative I may use either.

 

In your experience, when the sender seems to be going in circles, would it help if we ask him, "What are you feeling right now?" (but not expect a verbal answer), or do questions just tend to derail his process of feeling what he needs to be feeling at that moment (which may be the feeling of going in circles for as long as it takes us)?

In one case, the sender has been on the hot seat for over two hours. I wonder if that's what it takes or it's just that we are stuck as receivers. If it is the latter, how can we take the "opportunity for both to work through the issue", as you write in the FAQ response.

Stuck-ness is a measure of a receiver wanting a sender to be somewhere else.

 

When you relentlessly validate your sender being just the way he is, stuck-ness disappears.

 

 

Boat Suspends Truck

by Trailer Hitch

 

The Truck Driver

appears stuck

 

only to someone

who does not like

being in this position.

 

 

Clip: http://www.offroaders.com/

readers/stuck.htm

Thu, 26 May 2005

 

Fortune Cover


Hi Ed,

I find it interesting to note that somehow I think about you when I see the cover of the current issue of Fortune ("Real Estate Gold Rush"). Any insights you may share regarding the cover? Thanks.

As I read the article, it sounds like to me the success of those people interviewed is a form of trend-following, where they find the
market (region) whose property value are skyrocketing (I have a thrusting breakout in mind). However, I don't see much risk management they apply (e.g. "If the market does crash - which he doesn't expect - (an investor) says, 'You just hold on till it comes right back up.'")

Magazine Covers about major trends sometimes appear around the trends' ends.

 

 

Fortune

 

May 30, 1995

 

 

Clip: www.fortune.com

Thu, 26 May 2005

More on Issues


Hi Ed,


I have no insights as to what your issue might be or if you even have an issue but I sense drama in your responses to trading related questions and material. For example (as published on FAQ Nov 14 2004, Evolution) ...

Your Answer:

 

The basic Trend Trading rules are:

Trade with the Trend
Cut Losses and Ride Winners
Manage Risk



The subject is hidden.

 

Who is taking responsibility for these rules?

 

Most, if not all your other answers (TTP specific) contain a clear subject.

Rules is the subject.  Trading is an adjective, Trend is an adverb, as is basic.  The rules themselves are objects.

 

The rules exist independently of responsible parties.

 

Successful traders tend to take responsibility for (following) the rules.

 

 

 

Rules bring up k-nots.

 

When you untie your k-nots

you can more easily

follow the rules.

 

Following Rules and TTP

work well together.

 

Clip: http://www.caverun.org/CaveRun

Lake_Churches_and_Religious_

Organizations.htm

Wed, 25 May 2005

 

Where's the Beef ?

Hi Ed,

You mention studies at:

 

White Paper - Friday, 13 May 2005.

 

I can not find the studies section.

Also, your charts link is not working.

I have Studies at the Resources link, above.

 

I am revising the charts section.  I do not know of any current links to it.

 

Wed, 25 May 2005

 

Issues

re: Gimme What I Want


Hi Ed,

I have the interview and I find it quite helpful, this is why I recommend others read it also. I don't believe the interview offers specific trading advice or recommends specific parameters for a system.

I recommend you take the Hot Seat because I perceive discussing trading is an issue for you.

 

I won't hazard a guess why. If you don't want to post the interview I support you in that decision. I'm not trying to manipulate you in any way, I am using my receiving skills and I sense an issue you may want to explore ... or may not.

 

Sometimes the Chief gets so entwined with helping others he is blind to his owns issues.

I'm not upset by you not elaborating, I honestly sensed an issue.

You may consider taking your feelings of wanting to guess other peoples drama into your tribe meeting.

Please don't take my reply as manipulative. Be humbled by the fact your TT site is teaching others to be better receivers.

Some people like to quote me in their works or otherwise imply a connection with me.  Some seek permission and some do not.  Some even synthesize virtual interviews - that may contain substantial inaccuracies.  Please be careful.

 

I discuss trading at great length on this site.  If I have an issue with discussing trading,  I am open to your insights as to what that issue might be.

 

Note: I have limits about what I publish on FAQ.  See ground rules.

 

-----

 

Part of what I do on this site is to guess drama from very little evidence. 

 

For example, I notice you are instructing me on how to feel (in a sentence with no subject).

 

In TTP we encourage people to feel what they feel, not what we want them to feel.

 

-----

 

 

I don't consider teaching others as a path to becoming humble.

 

I already receive that service from the markets.

 

 

 

Soybeans

 

They sometimes rise

to great surprise.

 

They sometimes tumble

and keep you humble.

 

Clip: http://www.soils.agri.umn.edu/

research_old/ars/Images/Photos/

SOYBEANS.GIF

Wed, 25 May 2005

 

Workshop Feedback

Dear Ed,

Thank you for the workshop and TTP.!!!!!

From the first contact with Ed's homepage about TTP for me it's crystal clear - This is the way to go.

 

The workshop is excellent and we all learn about this psychological technology. Ed and his team of his local tribe are very supportive and people gathering from all over the world form a new large tribe and support each other and practice TTP for mutual growth.

 

My hot seat experience is unbelievable. "What is between you and your snapshot (goals, vision) old hidden feelings like tremendous sadness and anger pop up and the receivers of my little sub tribe support and relentless receive my feelings and the different forms like tears, movements of the whole body and somebody in me screams out again and again. - Now, What is between you and your snapshot now? NOTHING!!!!! NOTHING!!!!!
NOTHING!!!!! NOTHING!!!!!

Best to you and your family.

OK.

Tue, 24 May 2005

 

Tribe Update

Hi Ed …

 

Just to request an update on some previously reported news. The [City] Tribe has four (one female) committed members that meet once per month.

 

We are finding good results personally and tangibly as we utilize the process. I reply to about one email enquiry per month re the TTP.

 

Please correct the spelling of my last name to read [Name].

 

Many regards and keep up the good work.

OK.

Tue, 24 May 2005

 

Learning How to Grow Kids

Ed,

Since I only recently began experiencing my feelings after many years of suppressing them, I intend to help my children learn the process much earlier in life. I’ve attached a portion of a newsletter I receive which may be helpful to others.



-----

 


Some ways in which parents can help are:

Paying attention to their children’s feelings and helping them understand and articulate those feelings.


The best advice for parents might be to spend less time focusing on what our children will be and more time enjoying and supporting our children in the here and now with optimism, high (but realistic) expectations, and gentle coaching to succeed.

Understanding and articulating are steps toward fully experiencing.

 

Help is a step toward relentless validation.

 

 

In Matters of Importance

 

understanding and articulating

 

are no substitute

for fully experiencing.

 

 

Clip: http://www.rwrinnovations.com/

_images/lovers.jpg

Tue, 24 May 2005

 

Workshop Feedback


Hi, Ed --

 

The workshop was very helpful in many ways. Most important was clarifying my snapshot, and identifying what is between me and achieving it.

 

Since the workshop, I have:

 

1) Worked at further clarifying my snapshot, including taking the hotseat with the [City] tribe to experience the snapshot.


2) Communicated with my support team about my progress.


3) Communicated with the people I am supporting in order to help them progress.


4) Reviewed learnings from Reno with our tribe.


5) Continued making progress in refining my system with a greater sense of clarity, purpose and calmness. The feeling which I have in my snapshot is a combination of calmness and excitement, which I am able to experience more vividly and frequently.


Again, an excellent workshop. Thanks for your leadership and support.

OK.

Tue, 24 May 2005

 

The Demise of Trend Following


Hi Ed,

Here is an article on Trend Following.

 

No Bull Market in Trend-Following.pdf

Stories about the demise of Trend Following tend to occur around the start of major trends.

 

Tue, 24 May 2005

 

Manipulation

Ed,


I read the chapter in your book last night on manipulation.

 

I never realized how my unwillingness to experience certain feelings has allowed others to manipulate me.

 

Thank you for the “AHA”. I further commit myself to the TTP process, so I may fully experience my feelings without judgment.

OK.

 

It's easy to fall into manipulative games.  Pop music is full of how-to instructions, in detail.

 

 

 

Janice Joplin

 

One of the best ever

purveyors of manipulative songs

 

-----

 

PIECE OF MY HEART


by Bert Berns /Jerry Ragovoy
Recording by Janis Joplin & many others

 


Didn't I make you feel
like you were the only man?


Didn't I give ya everything
that a woman possibly can?


But with all the love I give you
its never enough


but I'm gonna show you baby
that a woman can be tough

so come on, come on,

come on, come one


and take another little piece

 of my heart now baby.


Break it


break another little bit

of my heart now honey.


Have another little piece

of my heart baby.


You know you got it
if it makes you feel good.

Clip: http://www.flexform.de/tattoo/

stars/janice_joplin1.jpg

 

More Whiney Songs:

http://www.gregtamblyn.com/news.html

Mon, 23 May 2005

 

Blurry Face

Dear Ed,

It is nice to read your reply on Snapshots (5/17).

 

I try to proceed as your suggestion, putting my face in the snapshot and notices the feelings. And this is really strange - I have a great deal of difficulty doing so.

 

My face becomes either very blurry, or just becomes a totally different face (of someone I don't know, or sometimes even a different race).

This really fascinates me - am I avoiding / denying my own self subconsciously? Or do most people also tend to fail to see their own images clearly in their own minds? I appreciate your insights.

You might consider taking the blur to your Tribe as an entry point.

 

 

 

Clarity is Essential

 

to experiencing

and sharing your vision

 

 

Clip: http://www.freebob.com/ICB/

Pictures/2002/09-14%20East%20Bay

%20Social%20Skate/0577%20

-%20Blurry%20bikers.JPG

Mon, 23 May 2005

 

Movie

Hi Ed,

My favorite book is 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator', I've read it many times. I think it would make a great movie. 


Do you have any connections in Hollywood to help make this happen?


Thanks for your commitment to FAQ, I enjoy reading your answers.

Thank you for the invitation to help subsidize your vision by providing connections.

 

I prefer supporting you by encouraging you to clear your k-nots so you can bring clarity and passion to your endeavors.

 

 

 

Movies

are a good way

 

to sell corn

for $200 per bushel

 

and sugar

for $3 per pound,

 

Clip: http://gifts-in-a-basket.com/

Movie%20Treats.jpg

Mon, 23 May 2005

 

Seeking



Do not seek to follow

in the footsteps of the wise.

Seek what they sought.

--- Basho



Dear Ed,

I encounter those who say they want to be great traders. Early on, before you became a "market wizard," what did you seek?

FAQ does not reveal personal information. See ground rules.

 

Basho, famous for Haiku Poetry, begins as an attendant, a wanderer and a Samurai before settling into poetry.

 

It seems that Basho, himself might have a meandering quality to his seekings.

 

 

 

Basho (Banana Plant)

 

A living gift from a student

becomes a landmark

at the poet's shack,

 

and eventually becomes

his name.

 

Clip: http://www.tropical-island.de/

KCH_Sarawak_Banana_plant2_b.jpg

Mon, 23 May 2005

 

Draw Downs


Ed,


This article has a section on how bad futures funds are doing this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/

news?pid=10000103&sid=

aJI.kNTMLsN4&refer=us 

 

So what do we do

when the draw-down's bigger?

 

We stay on task

and keep pulling the trigger.

 

(From the Trading Tribe Whip Saw Song)

Mon, 23 May 2005

 

Questions Regarding C++


Good morning Ed,

Regarding your use of C++:

 

In my snapshot I have committed to learning and programming in C++. I purchased the book you recommended and I purchased the Microsoft Visual C++ program that allows me to compile and link the program.

 

I am beginning to learn to program C++ and as I get further into it I'm wondering as to why you use this particular program as opposed to Fortran or some other programming language.

 

Is it because it is easier to download data from the internet? Or is it because of it's speed? Or is there some other attribute that I'm not aware of yet.

I'm looking forward to receiving your book.

The support group for my snapshot has been great. I only could have met this great group through the Reno seminar.

Most every modern programming language has enough features to run trading simulations.

Visual C++ is the traditional workhorse that supports the Microsoft Foundation Class of routines that drive Microsoft Windows applications.

 

The knowledge base and working examples of C++ programs is extensive.

Visual Basic also works well. Microsoft is merging Java, the language of the Internet Applet, with C++ to create C#.  C# is still fairly new.  The Foundation Class is morphing into the .NET platform.

 

You can find many other languages for specialty applications. FORTRAN is a legacy of the early "punch-card" days, for scientific (formula - translation) applications. Some commercial testing software has its own specialty testing language.

All in all, Visual C++ seems to me still to be the mainstream language. You can write just about anything in C++ and, once you master it, you can pick up C# and Java rather easily. 

 

Once you learn how to think like a programmer, many worlds open to you. - including knowing how to communicate with programmers.

 

 

 

C++

 

Pointers, Inheritance, Encapsulation,

and other cool concepts.

 

Clip: http://www.cyber.rdg.ac.uk/

prospective_students/faq.htm

Mon, 23 May 2005

 

Snapshot in the Now


Chief Ed,

I search and examine the site using the search feature and I find no detailed description of Snapshot creation.

Is there a page on the site where Snapshot creation concepts/tools/techniques are detailed?

The Snapshot Process requires a fully functioning Tribe and considerable specific training. 

 

Traditional goal setting includes creation of a plan for the non-existing future and creation of steps to get there.  The substance between you and your goal is non-existing time.

 

The Snapshot Process keeps everything in the now, and uses TTP to locate and dissolve the k-nots between you and your Snapshot.

 

Outside the context of a Tribe, instructions for conducting the Snapshot Process, can default to an invitation to employing goal setting as part of a drama.

 

To find out how to do the Snapshot Process, visit a [W] Tribe (one that has a leader with Workshop experience) or sign up for a workshop yourself.

 

 

The TTP Snapshot Process

 

takes pictures

that you develop

on the hot seat.

 

Clip: http://www.4-hontario.ca/

graphics/camera.gif

Sun, 22 May 2005

 

Gimme What I Want

or Get on the Hot Seat


Hi Ed,

You might consider taking your feelings about:

 

not sharing the [Name] interview

and other trading related knowledge

 

to your tribe meeting as an entry point.

FAQ does not or offer specific trading advice, or recommend specific trading system parameters,  See Ground Rules.

 

In TTP we recommend someone take the Hot Seat if he elects to present an issue.

 

We do not recommend someone take the hot seat as a manipulation to get him to do what we want him to do.

 

-----

 

If you wish to consult with me privately, see the private consulting link at the bottom of the Index page.

 

 

 

Arrogance

 

is an unrealistic

sense of entitlement.

 

It can be tricky to trade

by trying to convince the markets

that you deserve to make money.

 

Clip: www.jimcromwell.mcmail.com/ emotions/Arrogant.htm

Sun, 22 May 2005

 

Cyprus Trading Tribe

Dear Ed,

Please note that my details for starting a Trading Tribe in Cyprus are as belowf or updating the tribe directory. I am interested in starting a Tribe here in Cyprus. I have not found anyone interested in joining me in the personal growth and self improvement your work provides.

I look forward to reading your book.

 

 

Welcome

 

Limassol

Cyprus

 

Sat, 21 May 2005

 

Workshop Feedback


Dear Ed,

Below you find a description of my two weeks that passed since the workshop begins:

Friday, 6th of May 2005: I feel shy being in a room between very successful persons and I feel strange in a room where several TTP sessions are going on at the same time.

Saturday, 7th: I feel more comfortable in the group. Even the successful persons don't show any form of arrogance. Between a lot of interesting concepts I learn about the snap shot process and I develop a snap shot like everybody does.

 

My snap shot includes: I am working at a computer on a deck behind a small house standing at a beach. My wife is coming from the beach. I place the scene in the Mediterranean because I think that my wife does not like to live in the tropical zones.

 

I also think to include "something else" (see also 18th of May) but I don't want to be to demanding to my snap shot, because I do not want to decrease the probabilities that it can come true.

 

Later that day we perform TTP sessions. Our process manager is Easan. He impresses me because he is able to give explanations during the process without pulling the person who is in the hot seat out of his feelings. Later, I am on the hot seat and I am faced with the question "What stands between you and your snap shot?".

 

My issue is that I feel stuck. It seems to me that I can't feel a feeling. I am just sitting there, staring, clinging with my hands to the chair biting my teeth together. That is my form. The receivers are great they say things like "Yes, be more stuck!", the process manager says something like "What a great stuck person you are doing".

 

I take a while until I begin to feel curious about feeling stuck and I begin to laugh about me sitting there stuck. Suddenly feeling stuck is something not that bad, just something that makes me curious. A feeling like ants below the stomach accompanies that discovery. If I understand it the right way, feeling stuck is the happy judge.

 

Then after a lot of years I begin to cry without any reason. There is a grumpy judge saying "I don't cry any more" and the feeling that I am unwilling to experience for years is crying. All the receivers and the process manager are doing a great job. I am very happy that they help me to experience these feelings and forms. I notice that all other tribes are finished and I don't want to make the others wait, so I decide not to go into the reintegration phase, although my tribe offers to do so. I plan to go through the reintegration together with my local trading tribe.

Sunday, 8th: I feel lighter. The persons of the Incline Village Trading Tribe and other persons who do TTP for a long time seem very balanced to me.

 

I have the impression that I don't risk anything when I talk to them. We form support groups for our snap shots. I begin my trip home. I am stuck at Reno airport, because somebody canceled my flight and postponed the next flight for two hours. I discover that being stuck at Reno airport can be real fun, because an employee of the airline plays a game like Trivial Pursuit through the PA system of the gate with the waiting passengers. Everybody is laughing and we have a lot of fun.

Monday, 9th: I manage to catch a flight home from San Francisco. A woman sitting next to me on board of the aircraft asks me about the TTP book, which I am reading. She tells me that she is a psychologist and she asks me to summarize the book to her. I do my best to explain the Fredian Model and the TTP to her. She is very interested and I give her the URL of your web site.

Tuesday, 10th: I arrive at home. I go to office and I notice that I feel easier being in the office. I notice that I don't have that feeling like something is closing my throat any more. When I see my wife in the evening she immediately asks me "Did you cry?". She is a very warm person and knows that this is a feeling or form that waits for years inside of me to come at the surface.

Wednesday, 11th: I notice that my driving is a lot more relaxed then before the TTP. I send the TTP books to the other tribe members. In the evening my wife, who is a doctor, tells me that she found an organization, which sends doctors to other parts of the world, like Australia, New Zealand or the Caribbean.

 

My wife does not know about my snapshot and I tell her that I would like to live at the sea. She tells me, she too. I feel that my hair on the back of my head is rising.

 

I choose to place my snap shot outside of the tropical zones for my wife and now she comes presenting me a possibility to move there. This situation seems very strange to me and I remember members of the Incline Village Tribe saying: "Your snap shot may come true even this year or next year." I think a lot about causality and intention, commitment, result.

Thursday, 12th: My parents-in-law arrive from abroad to support my wife, while I go to hospital to get some surgery done to remove something that is causing me pain for more than 15 years. My father-in-law says "I am happy you went to the US for the workshop, because it shows how serious you take the idea of investment."

 

While driving to the hospital I notice that I drive aggressively again. The more my wife complains about my style of driving the more aggressively I drive. It seem clear to me that there is a drama going on. I decide to take this as an issue into the TTP.

Friday, 13th: I am in hospital. The operation is successful without any problems. I am happy to see my wife when they drive me with the bed out of the anesthetic recovery room. I sleep a lot while my wife stays next to my side in the hospital. I like to see her next to my bed every time I wake up.

Saturday, 14th: I am still in hospital.

Sunday, 15th: I notice the feeling, like something is closing my throat, again while talking to a nurse. The feeling disappears after a while. I decide to take this feeling into the TTP. I leave hospital.

Monday, 16th: My parents-in-law leave. I still feel pain from the surgery.

 

I have the longest and most meaningful conversation with my father since years on the phone.

 

My wife says that her parents offer us to move inside a flat they own at a Mediterranean sea resort. The flat is 50 meters away from the beach, so it is not exactly on the beach like in my snap shot, but it seems like another possibility to make a step in the direction of my snap shot.

Tuesday, 17th: I buy some drums for our tribe. My driving is very calm again. I don't feel any desire to overtake and to surpass the speed limits. I am calling a lot of people by phone, which is strange, because I usually avoid talking to people on the phone.

Wednesday, 18th: I get indication, that the "something else" (see also 7th of May), which I didn't include into my snap shot might actually come true.

 

It seems unbelievable to me and there is again a sensation like my hair on the back of my head is rising. I usually have this kind of sensation when something irrational happens in movies. My wife says: "These must be unbelievable intense days for you."

Thursday, 19th: 2 weeks passed since I left for the workshop and I decide that it is time to contact the persons to whom I promised my commitment for their snap shot.

This is a long message. I think it contains a lot of things that happened, especially for a person whose issue at the workshop is feeling stuck in life. I have several issues for the next tribe meetings and I am looking forward to experience them using the TTP.

I thank you Ed, the members of Incline Village TT and all the other participants for this workshop. I am happy to know such a wonderful group of persons who want to achieve something.

I also thank you for the book!  English is foreign language for me and I find it very easy to read your SVO-p text.

OK.

Fri, 20 May 2005

 

Breathwork and TTP


Ed,

This is a newsletter that Jacquelyn Small sends out periodically. She is a lady that does Breathwork sessions and other work here in Austin. She led a Breathwork session that I participated in a few months ago. I think the content of the first section of this issue is especially consistent with TTP, so I am sending on to you in case it interests you to see continuing evidence of other methods being in synch with TTP.



-----


It’s Not Out, But Through,

That We Heal and Transform

by Jacquelyn Small


It’s an illusion to think you can just talk yourself out of negative feelings, or that there is some mental instrument or simple affirmation you can feed your brain that will automatically change your emotional responses.

 

These mental tools can indeed change your mind, but emotions function through the law of thermodynamics: they flow, ripple, or roar like water, and must be accessed and released to heal. So, unless you are willing to have a lobotomy, it’s better to not depend on your brain to shift your emotions.

 

When we try to talk ourselves out of feelings, they only go into repression, and will come out sideways, and often act out when we least want them to. Repression is the name of your shadow’s playhouse.

Once emotions are cleared, though, the mind comes into play and works beautifully to under-gird your life with new ideas, positive beliefs, and any attitude adjustment needed to fit with your new clarity.

 

But rarely does it work the other way around. Spiritual bypass is often the result of trying to control one’s feelings without ever having gotten all the way through them with compassion and understanding. Spiritual bypass is the act of rising above issues and feelings that have never integrated and healed.

There is no such thing as rising up and out of an emotion you’ve never let yourself feel.

 

Once a feeling has gone into your body, or hit your psyche in any way at all, it won’t just go away; it has to be made conscious and expressed in order to release. For emotional healing to prevail, we must enter fully into whatever is left unprocessed, and ride it all the way through until the pent-up energy is drained off the issue. Then, it is finished, never to command your attention or psychic energy again.

Because your emotional body functions like water, whatever emotions build up in your body will gently stir you, or erupt like a torrential storm at sea when your feelings run high. If blocked, they store themselves in your cells, closing your heart, and giving you the false idea that it’s not safe or “spiritual” to feel negative feelings such as anger or deep grief.

Medical science is now showing us how crucial it is to our physical well-being to heal our emotional body.

 

As stated in the Newsweek magazine edition dedicated to The New Science of Mind and Body (September, 2004), we’re told that “from anger to optimism, our emotions are physiological states.

 

The brain, as the source of those states, offers a potential gateway to other tissues and organs -- the heart and blood vessels, the gut and even the immune system.”

Your emotional body, in order to heal, must use techniques that empty out the feelings with compassion and no judgment.

 

Then, your emotional body will be calm and transparent to meet each present moment with the pristine clarity of the truth of every situation and every relationship you encounter, no longer contaminated with old, unprocessed feelings. A lake with no ripples will perfectly reflect the sky (or truth).

Yes.

 

Breathwork can help access deep feelings. 

 

The Holotropic process, per Stanislav Grof and his followers proposes a tendency of the subconscious to heal itself  (Holo = wholeness; tropic = tending toward).

 

The breather, by lowering metabolic CO2 throws the body into alkalosis that occasions a vasoconstriction of the cerebral cortex (and placenta).

 

Cortical vasoconstriction tends to put the conscious mind to sleep and enhances awareness of the subconscious process.

 

In TTP we do not try to put the conscious mind to sleep, or otherwise invalidate it.  We use relentless validation to experience forms and integrate feelings and conscious awareness, resulting in wisdom.

 

Breathwork and TTP work well together.  Breathwork helps locate deep feelings and issues and TTP helps integrate them.

 

Contraindications for Breathwork may include cardiovascular problems, retinopathy, epilepsy and pregnancy

 

 

Secret to a Long Life

 

Keep Breathing

 

Clip: http://www.be-spoke.com/

shop/images/breathe.jpg

 

Sat, 21 May 2005

 

Marketing


Hello Ed,

I hope you are okay; writing to you is like having an imaginary friend.

I have been in endless discussions with my head of marketing and research on how to market the company I work for.

What is marketing?

I think that marketing objectives is not to show our achievements to our clients, marketing is the process of tracking the process details of success, failure and overcoming failure and keeping a record.

 

We should never mention our achievements but we should always talk about the details which create the process of which our clients will see at the end see as an achievement.

Achievement is nothing but a result, anyone or no one will at any point of his life will make a big achievement by luck, it is the details in the process which we live in is what we should learn from and duplicate to ripple into our clients business or our lives.

We at this marketing department like many others don’t address details yet we always address achievements because its easy to say we managed to do this and that but we never research the process details of how our employees manage to pull things off, we will never learn from our achievements or losses like that.

 

To me I wish if any employee anywhere records details and brag about the process of which he makes his part-of-the-picture success of; because at the end of the day when we have experience and we have a new prospect client our details will talk of our achievements and not vise versa.

If we have recorded the process of our success or failure then we would not only communicate our value to our clients but also vise versa we will learn from it our selves.

Process before results, results can never rise above their process and like they say that god is in the details.

All of the above also applies to trading, there is no place for dumb luck and if there is dumb luck it should be identified and not mentioned as part of the process, this way we can squeeze out our pure knowledge.

This is not easy, it takes going around to every department in our company and gathering all the details be it graphic, charts, plans or what so ever related to the process and addressing every success and failure on the way, this is why many marketing departments miss the point, everyone talks on achievements with out going into structured details.

All of the above also stands for trading.

FAQ does not tell people what they should do.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about self-promotion into the process.

 

 

 

Muhammad  Ali

I am the Greatest

 

Ali demonstrates mastery of marketing

through astounding self-promotion.

 

Here, in this pose,

he demonstrates his response

to people who try to tell him

what he should do.

 

 

Clip:http://www.sohoweeklynews.com/Book

/ShowBiz/muhammad_ali_fists_v_std.jpg

 

Sat, 21 May 2005

 

Trading Systems and Intuition



Ed,


The essay below sort of explained (at least to myself) why all great traders use very different approaches but with the same successful result.

 

I wrote it a while ago. Would be interested to know your opinion and if I missed something in the sequence of conclusions below:

Let consider any system that generates buy/sell signals. Taking bid/ask spread and commissions out of the equation - it is impossible to come up with the losing trading system! Why? Because if trading system (S1) is proved to be consistently losing then by definition the "fading" trading system (-S1) will be consistently winning. Hardly possible. If I am right then everlasting chase after the really working trading system is an illusion.


On the long term (again, not considering commissions and bid/ask spread) every mechanical trading system's performance will closely resemble the overall market's performance!

 

It's impossible to be otherwise for the abovementioned reasons - fading consistently underperforming system would create consistently over-performing one, which is impossible. All of the above is valid on the long "infinite" term.


Of course on the short term there are plenty of "really working back-tested systems" available for purchase on the internet at a bargain prices :)

Back from theory to the real world. In the real world any system will be quickly "losing" without proper money management. But adding very simple money management rule to cut losing trade automatically (say if it loses 1-2% of the total trading equity) will soften this factor and will keep the total equity "afloat" for longer.

Last but not least - bid/ask spread and commissions factors. They are taken care of by having properly sized trading equity ($100k+) and not letting system to trade too often.

So given all of the above: any mechanical trading system + money management + reasonable trade frequency = staying_afloat_for_a_while.

Never winning, but only "staying afloat". For a while. As the "house" still has bid/ask and commissions advantage - ANY mechanical trading system will eventually lose all the money. And that's the best any mechanical trading system could do.

So why bother with trading systems at all? Very simple - trading system forces to maintain DISCIPLINE and eliminates EMOTIONAL factors - mostly greed and fear. Especially in money management area. Trading system never makes money for humans on the long term - it just helps traders to stay afloat but helping them to keep their emotions off their trading account. It DOES NOT matter which trading system is used.

But where is the human factor - trader itself comes in? Of course he always comes in to override the trading system, in hope to do better than just "slowly sink". And all traders in the world has a clear conscious intent to make money. Conscious!

The problem here are subconscious K-NOTs. If trader has a set of K-NOTs - Fred tries to pass a message on top (to conscious mind). I won't repeat Ed's FAQ here, it explains everything wisely. The usual quickest and most efficient way for Fred to pass a strong message up about K-NOTs is to make trader to violate money management rules. Be that the other guy or Jesse Livermore - bad money management is what Fred used to quickly pass a message by saying: "clean up subconscious from garbage - it prevents you to realize your conscious intent!".


By the time subconscious is free of knots - person either becomes a really good trader or loses interest in trading for the benefits of his other talents.

 

And when pure unobstructed intuition comes into play - we don't need insider's news ... the moment I decided that I know it all - the outflow of funds began :) )

Some traders actually do commit to following their systems.

 

You seem to like to figure things out.  So, here's one for you:

 

See if you can figure out the feeling of wanting to figure it out.

 

 

 

For Some Very Bright People

 

figuring it out

is more important

 

than following the system.

 

Clip: http://graphics.jsonline.com/

graphics/news/img/oct03/

mathbig100403.jpg