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May 1 - 31, 2006

 

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Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Mon, 29 May 2006

 

No Separation

In the FAQ (Re: Oldies, 4/10/05), Ed says, "On some level, we know the feelings of all our brothers and sisters, ultimately of all life on the planet. Unwillingness to experience this knowledge is necessary to preserve the illusion of separation."

Can you tell me more about it? You mean you know on some level you know how I feel? Really? How? There is no separation between you and me? (Apparently I'm still living under the illusion so I appreciate if you can help me see through the illusion, thanks.)

To help you see through it, I can first see, with you, that there is no way to see through it.

 

 

 

When You Experience Something

Fully and Joyously

 

it disappears

 

Clip: http://www.chairforce.com/downloads/

backs/brick-wall.jpg

Mon, 29 May 2006

 

Living Below Means

Hi Ed,

In the FAQ of 3/26/05 (How to stay alive), you answer to "live below means." Can you elaborate on the "live below means" part? Does it mean a frugal and ascetic life?

I gather that it includes "Stop buying so much crap" (FAQ 7/19/04, Donchian). My main curiosity lies in the "BELOW means" instead of "live where your finance allows you."

Living well, below your means means, well, living well below your means.

 

You might consider taking your feeling about having a little extra in reserve to your Tribe.

 

 

Financial Reserves

are like a happy cushion ...

 

useful in absorbing

some of the bumps in the road.

 

 

Clip: www.gifty-bts.com

Sun, 28 May 2006

 

Causality

Dear Sir,

From your answers in the FAQ of 3/20/05, you say:

Anger in a k-not leads to depression.


Disabling the emotional function and trying to make decisions intellectually leads to drama


Doesn't the term "leads to" imply causality?

Thanks.

Thank you for the catch.

 

More precisely, k-nots tend to entrain drama.

 

A system thinker says: "A banjo string of a certain gauge, tension and length entrains a note of a certain pitch."

 

A causal thinker says: "Picking the string causes it to sound.

 

 

The Banjo

provides plenty of opportunities

 

for description

 

by system and causal thinkers.

 

Clip: http://www.saletime.net/banjo3.jpg

Sun, 28 May 2006

 

Optimization?



Hi Seykota,

I am an 18 year old forex trader from Denmark, I have spent the last two years developing a system that trades the EUR/USD spot market. I have tested it on wealth-lab using the last 20 years of data of data, and have achieved great results.

 

It is quite a simple trend following system, with a slight contrarian twist. Its robust enough so that even though it is designed for EUR/USD it also back tests profitably on the 30 DOW stocks.

 

Money management strategy is simple anti-martingale risk constant % per position. The exit consists of a trailing ATR stop. In Wealth-Lab as you know it is amazingly easy to optimize variables to achieve a system that would trade amazingly well in the past, but how should one go about choosing a value for this variable, if robust long term performance is the goal?

 

I have tried running a test between the values of 0.1ATR to 5.0ATR trailing stop and I get a bell curve, with the top of the curve being around the area of 3ATR +- 0.5. I had considered implementing a strategy where I at the end of every year would run a similar simulation and then choose the value for my trailing ATR stop that is in the middle of the bell curve, not necessarily the value with the highest profit, just the one in the centre, as this should be the value that is most likely to also be profitable for next year, right?

 

I expect that this bell curve will likely move around a little every year, therefore choosing the value in the middle wouldn't this maximize the likelihood of my system staying in the money? My goal is a system with robust long term performance of 40% a year and drawdowns of no more than 20%, Is this too close to curve fitting or am I on the right track?

There is not much on the net about optimization, except blatant statements like, its the holy grail or its bad! Just bought Lebeau's book "Technical traders guide to computer analysis of the futures market", Michael Covel's book "Trend Following" and Perry Kaufmanns book "Smarter trading", in the hope that they might also provide me with some insight into this area of system design, Amazon is however taking ages to deliver to little Denmark! :)


I have found it very difficult to find valuable information on exits and optimization, except a little form Van Tharp. After reading your interview in the Market Wizards a few years ago, you have been a great inspiration in my personal journey towards successful trading and I would greatly appreciate if you could help me answer some of these questions. Look forward to hearing from you!

In Emotional Trading, you try to figure it all out, and then take a position to find out if you are right (or wrong).

 

In Mechanical Trading, you come up with a method and then mechanically apply the method to many situations. 

 

Mechanical Trader simply (or not so simply) follows his system, without concern about individual trades having to be right or wrong.

 

You seem to bring an emotional need to be right to your mechanical trading.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about wanting to be right to your Tribe as points of entry.

 

 

 

 

In The Terminal Stages

caregivers need to know

 

as much about the process of dying

as about the individual patient.

 

Clip: http://www.npvna.org/images/

Hospice%20web%20page.jpg

Sat, 27 May 2006

 

W = 246


My weight this morning was 246 lbs

See W = 245, below.

Sat, 27 May 2006

 

Tribe in Singapore ?


Dear Trading Tribe,

I came across your website by accident. On reading the site, I found it a very thoughtful experiment and would like to know some more.

I work in Singapore and trading has been my part-time pursuit. I found, however, no trading tribe community in Singapore. Any advice ?

See: Tribe Directory, above

Fri, 26 May 2006

 

TTP in the Workplace
 

Ed,

I use TTP in our company, and even have company Tribe Meetings. This is a message that one of my employees sent me today.


[Dear Boss],

Thank you for getting the tribe going at our company. I feel much more grounded as an employee because of it. In addition it has helped me to further clarify my path in life.

Thank you for being in my life, I feel blessed to count you as a friend.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

Fri, 26 May 2006

 

Intention = Home

Ed

My wife and I purchased our home on the beach today which was part of my “snapshot” at the May 2005 workshop and our joint snapshots at the Jan 2005 workshop.  We are still enjoying the process of achieving the other part of our snapshot but still no babies as yet.

We are doing your Trading System Project at the moment and noticed what we think is an error in the gold data on the 22 June 1993. According to our work it generates a trade in the support and resistance system resulting in a loss.

 

 

 

 

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

Congratulations on manifesting your snapshot.

 

Thank you for the catch.

Thu, 25 May 2006

 

Can't Let Go


Dear Ed,

I write to report my hotseat. I get on the hot seat with a problem of accumulating and keeping assignments, work, and to dos. Things accumulate and I and others are frustrated.

I start my hotseat and as an avalanche, it all comes down and out. A revelation! If I keep the work undone, it's mine. If I do the work, I return it and it is no longer mine. I get the point.

I'm very grateful for the work you do and that you give it to me. Thank you. And I enjoy reading the FAQ's.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

Letting Go of What You Are

is a step

 

toward becoming something else

 

Clip: http://www.tattooheaven.com/currentPaint.html

Thu, 25 May 2006

 

Where to Begin


Dear Ed,

For the last 6 months I have been behaving irrationally, listening to white noise and using my gut to make money.


Yes, you guessed it, I in fact lost money. I have been hugely up with no idea when the peak would come and often bought all the way down saying the peak will return. Then promised myself not to do that again, only to find myself doing it again.

I have now decided that I am still young, early 20's, and thus my mind needs to be fed.


So my question to you is, where do I begin? I have happened, by chance, onto Turtle Traders, then yourself.


I am reading Trend Followers at the moment and I feel that I am more suited to the technical side of the markets as I believe fundamentals are rubbish in most cases, just people behaving on mass to data which shouldn't have the impact that it does.

 

Why do I feel this, because I was one of them. Trained economist who thinks everything must have reason economically and thus an impact.

I have seen though, by market watching, that this doesn’t need to be so.

Ed, where do I begin? What do I need to do first in my journey to becoming a good successful trader? How do I create a trading system? I realize it may take time and at the moment all I want is some guidance. A mentor. I choose you to help me please.

I am ready, hungry, ambitious and keen to succeed and to feed my mind the right way with the right knowledge.


There are so many books, courses, websites out there, but I keep coming back to you!

Please can you be of assistance to me?

Thanks in advance

You are taking the first step.  You might consider taking your feeling of not knowing where to go from here to your Tribe as an entry point.

 

 

 

 

Crossroads

 

can be indecisive stopping points

 

or opportunities

 

 

Clip: http://www.antonshevchenko.com/

favorites.html

Thu, 25 May 2006

 

Catch

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/EA/index.htm


The Position_Size, then, is 100,000 / 15.575 = 6430.5 + and rounding to the nearest 250, we get 6500 units.


100,000 / 15.575 = 6420.5, not 6430.5


Thanks

Good catch.

Thu, 25 May

 

Possible Catch

Hi

I fear I’m missing something crucial here but in the example used below should the ‘lag’s on the right of side of the equation be Lag-1 or the previous lag?

It kind of stumped be for a bit and guess that is what it should be as if you knew what Lag equaled, which you must by inserting it in the values in the right hand side, then you wouldn’t need the formula.

I am really struggling with the Math for all this which surprises me as it was one of my stronger subjects at school.

I guess it’s easy to neglect personal development for a time when you leave education.

All the best


http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/Trends/index.htm



5. Update the Lag:

To update the lag, use:

Lag = Lag + (Currrent_Close - Lag) / Time_Constant
      = Lag

      = $10 + ($20 - $10) / 5 days
      = $12
 

Yes, per some forms of notation,

Lag[t] = f(Lag[t-1]).

 

Popular compilers such as Basic and C use notation without the subscripts.

Wed, 24 May 2006

 

Pounding Out the Fear

 

At my Tribe Meeting, I get into my form of anger and keep pounding a pillow with my fists. 

 

At the zero point I get an idea that I am really not that angry. 

 

I am mostly afraid and sad and I am using anger as a way to not have to feel what is really going on.

 

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

When You Fully Experience a Form

it disappears

 

and may reveal something underneath.

 

Clip: http://www.lingerie-uk.tv/acatalog/

BODACIOUS_Catalogue_Accessories_19.html

Wed, 24 May 2006


Borderline: A Fractal Poem

Dear Mr. Seykota,

Our son is working on his PHD in Mathematics from the State University of New York at Albany.

 

When he was taking Masters Courses at SUNY Cortland, he took a class in the Chaos Theory. He showed me the textbook that they were using and I noticed how interesting the designs of the fractals were.

 

I am a quilter and I would like to make a fractal quilt as a graduation present for our son when he gets his PHD.

 

I came across your poem while I was looking at pictures of fractals (See: Resources, above). I was wondering if I could have your permission to put a copy of the poem on the back of the quilt when it is finished. I found it informative (as much as my non-higher Math mind could get around it) and very entertaining. I would make sure that your name and the name of your company is included.

Thank you for your consideration.

Yes,  Go ahead.

 

I wonder how much thread you plan to use in tracing around the (infinitely long) fractal shapes.

 

You might send me a photo of your quilt.

Tue, 23 May 2006

 

Magazine Cover

Ed,

I have just become aware of this now. You may already be aware of this magazine cover.

On another note, I have a few clients adding to their
accounts and a few new accounts opening. I also have one client that cut his account in half at the bottom. I am not sure what to make of it. It looks like confusion to me.



 

See Market Top, below.

Tue, 23 May 2006

 

Marketing by Intention

Variance Reports and the Under Fred Network

Recently I am acting as the prototype for the Trading Tribe Growth Engine, wherein reporting and system trades will be more transparent. Since making that agreement, two clients have called to say they have a sudden interest in watching the trades in their accounts more closely, and would like to monitor them.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Tue, 23 May 2006

 

Intention Operates at a Distance

 

Ed!

Incline Village Trading Tribe Hot Seat

I take the hot seat with a feeling of pain in my left side. The story has to do with keeping agreements,
keeping one's word, both mine to others and others to me.

 

This is triggered by an engineer who is doing a project for me doesn't do what he agrees to, nor does he call when he says he will.

 

I go through layers of sadness, frustration, anger, and see new insights into when I haven't kept agreements, and how Fred has caused me to choose people who act the same way, in an attempt to resolve the repressed feelings created by 'not keeping agreements'.

The next day after the Tribe meeting, the engineer gives me a call to update me on the project.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

When You Align with Under Fred

 

the world behaves

as if you hold the remote control.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.hardware-one.com/reviews/

audigyplatinum-ex/remote-1-big.jpg

Tue, 23 May 2006

 

Global Sell Off

Dear Ed

re: the "Global sell off" all over my newspaper these last few days.

I am right in asserting the following:

* the long term trend is up
* until I know otherwise (i.e. an extended period of downwards trading) this still remains true.

Many thanks

There is no such thing as the trend.  Some of the shorter indicators are down while some of the longer ones are still up.

 

At some point in the non-existing future, we might look back into the non-existing past (now) and notice the exact numerical values of all the various trends that we cannot now measure.

Sun, 21 May 2006

 

Puzzles


Hi Ed,

I hope all is well at Lake Tahoe! I just received the Google Puzzle Competition starting 6-17-06. Here is the link you may get a job at Google if you do well!!!

Shortcut to: http://wpc.puzzles.com/practice/index.htm

We can compare answers for the real one if you like ... might not be many people I can get excited about ... but I know you love them ...

Greetings

Thank you for the heads-up.

Fri, 19 May 2006

 

Partial Resolution

Ed,

At our last tribe meeting several hotseat issues are similar. The snapshot process uncovers problems related to following through on commitments for several of us, myself included. The first hotseat produces feelings in me, as a receiver with similar issues, of uneasiness centered in my chest and upper abdomen.

I go second, and quickly begin to wretch and vomit …oh well, it seems to happen to everyone sooner or later. There seems to be something in there that wants to come out; so I let it. Go with the flow, so to speak.

After a relatively short but violent experience, I reach the zero point. While not experiencing any great AHA’s, I have the feeling that my issue is related to my lack of awareness. Several days since the hotseat and I am still not clear on these feelings. I sense the issue is important for me, and unresolved. I intend to work on this again.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

Until You Can Do Your Form With Joy

 

there is more to do.

 

 

Clip: http://www.tangento.net/zappa3.html

Sat, 20 May 2006

 

Overtrading

Dear Ed,


My trading is getting a little better but I am still overtrading due to not having a job. I am trying to make myself a salary every week with trading and I am mostly spinning my wheels.

My friend made a little program for me that keeps me in tune with what stocks are trending up and down and it is very helpful. The commodities program will be next!

I hope things are well with you.

Thanks for the stock and commodities charts on your website. They are very helpful.

Trading is no substitute to the steady income of a steady job.

 

You might consider taking your feelings of not having enough money to your Tribe. 

 

 

 

Overtrading Tends to Accompany Pressure

 

Sometimes,

experiencing the positive intention of pressure

 

can relieve the urge to over trade.

 

Clip: http://kids.earth.nasa.gov/archive/air_pressure/

Fri, 19 May 2006


Test

Dear Ed.

Do you copy ?

C-O-P-Y

Fri, 19 May 2006

 

Update for Tribe


Dear Mr. Seykota:

I hope you are well. I know you are extremely busy, however please kindly update the [Name] Tribe Directory to 2 committed member instead of 1.  I thank you for your cooperation and attention on this matter.

Sincerely,

To update your listing, submit a new TID.

Fri, 19 May 2006

 

W = 245


My weight this morning was 245 lbs

See Weight Up, below.

Fri, 19 May 2006

 

Buying on Strength

Hi Ed !

One of the few strong ones this morning

ELN, a biotech. I bought the breakout 5/16 at 17.14

If you want report a buy to FAQ, be sure and follow up with the sell.

Thu, 18 May 2006

 

Suspicious Prices on Charts

Hi Ed,

I don't know if anyone has mentioned it to you already, but looking at the currencies page , it seems that there are some suspicious prices for the Norwegian Krone and Swedish Krona in Dec of 2005.

In general, how do you test data quality? Thanks.

My current Quality Control method seems to include you.

 

Thank you for the catch.

 

I am rectifying the 12/20 migrating decimal problem.

Wed, 17 May 2006

 

Judging the Judge

Hi Ed,

I have an interesting IM chat with my wife in which I try to be as non-judgmental about the content of what she is saying but just receive her.

We just got married last month and my sister wrote us a check as our wedding gift. I choose not to cash it but just keep it, but my wife doesn't like the idea.

The following is definitely not our usual form of conversation. Most of the time, I tend to explain to her my view and try to reach a compromise.

Instead, this time I just try to actively receive. There are several times I think about explaining my rationale, but I refrain myself from doing that, but instead try this experiment.

I don't know how this is leading me to. It's very different and not how I am accustomed to. However, I like the experiment and I look forward to seeing how the dust settles. Thanks!

Trying to be non-judgmental presupposes a judgment about being judgmental. 

 

You might consider validating your feelings about being judgmental.

 

 

 

The Positive Intention of A Judge

 

is to judge.

 

 

Clip: http://www.larochecreative.com/compositing.htm

Wed, 17 May 2006

 

Strong Trends



Hi Dr. Ed -

I find the strongest trends using a service called Daily Graphs. They have a custom screening database where you can target just the strongest trends. I know there is a lot more to trading than just that. But check it out. http://www.dailygraphs.com

regards,

You can find such trends on the charts page above, for free. You can also apply to receive a page of custom charts, also for free.

Wed, 17 May 2006

 

Subtle Activities

In the Workshop page, Ed says, "A few activities, many of them subtle and unconscious, determine success and happiness."

Can you please give some examples of those subtle and unconscious activities that determine success and happiness? Thanks.
 

Breathing, smiling, encouraging people.

Wed, 17 May 2006

 

Fundamental  Flaw

LONDON (Reuters) - London metals gave up early gains and headed lower on Wednesday on U.S. inflation fears, but investors resisted any temptation to repeat Monday's heavy selling, dealers said.

It seems that causalists must have a reason even if the reason is logically inconsistent.

Yes, all reasons are logically inconsistent.

 

To see this for yourself, just keep applying the causalist mantra, "why" to any reason, and to the endless chain of supporting reasons. 

 

 

 

If You Keep Applying "Why"

to a series of reasons

 

they all disappear

down an obscure hall of mirrors.

 

 

Clip: http://home.earthlink.net/

~howlers/bryan/mirrors.jpg  

Wed, 17 May 2006


Pssssttt ...


Dear Ed,

 

Please keep the following FAQ / Incline Village TT update anonymous ...


[ ... ]

OK - You might consider taking your feelings of wanting to keep secrets to your tribe as entry points.

Wed, 17 May 2006

 

TSP: Diversification study



Dear Ed,


please can you post links to the price data files you used in the diversification study (copper and oil). I want to do the calculations using my back testing program and to verify I get the same results as you.


Have a good time in Cambridge and please take a look in at my old college - Trinity. The library and chapel provide inspiration. Also you might want to arrange to meet Dr [Name] who was my fluid mechanics tutor and has mastery of his subject.

I am revising the format for TSP to coordinate it with the new Chart Server pages, above, at charts.

 

Yes, I'd like to meet with your professor.

 

Tue, 16 May 2006

 

Buying a Car at the Top


Hi Ed,


Our trading goes wonderfully. My car continues to break/end up in the shop. I consider getting a new car for months.

 

I feel as though I cannot go ahead and buy a new car, because our trading cannot continue to go as wonderfully as it is, and I will buy a new car "at the top" and then regret my decision ( I am notoriously frugal-there are those that call me cheap, but I hate to use equity for anything but trading).

 

As we make a new equity high on 5/11, I decide to go ahead and buy myself a new car. I pick up the car 5/13. On 5/15 we suffer our worst one day loss since the inception of our current trading program.

 
What gives?


Yours,

What gives is some cute evidence that intentions, such as to buying a car at the top, keep manifesting.

 

To break this cycle, you might consider taking your feelings to your Tribe as an entry point. 

 

 One positive intention of your feelings of "wanting to buy" might be to inform about the "wanting to buy" that a lot of people feel near the tops.

 

Under Fred helps everybody coordinate.

 

 

A New Car Can Sometimes Give You

 

a feeling of being on top.

 

Clip: http://www.monte.plus.com/harvey/

75%20-%20New%20Car.jpg

Mon, 15 May 2006

 

ePsychology

 

America's therapists get hung up over boom in internet and instant message counseling

Source: www.telegraph.co.uk
http://tinyurl.com/lqgbs

America's therapists get hung up over boom in internet and instant message counselling

By Philip Sherwell
(Filed: 07/05/2006)

It was perhaps inevitable, in the era of constant
communication by email, text and instant messaging, that technology would catch up with
another of modern America's obsessions.

Therapy-addicted Americans are used to paying up
to $200 (£110) for a face-to-face session with an
analyst who will, if they are lucky, dispense advice on how to improve their lives.

Now the stressed, depressed, angry and lovelorn
are turning, in increasing numbers, to therapy
on-line - where, for a dollar a minute, and with
their anonymity guaranteed, they can seek answers
to their deepest problems.

But so sharp is the growth in internet counseling
that some therapists are becoming alarmed.

Paul Applaud, the former head of the American
Psychiatric Association, said that there were
dangers in relaying instant advice to patients
whom the counselor has never met, and cannot see.

"Even instant messages can be tidied up before
they are sent, so you don't know if you are getting the patient's real feelings," he said.

"The issue of licensing and regulation is also
very troubling. How do you know who's on the other
end of the line? Is it a licensed therapist or some high school graduate? I'm sure some companies
make proper checks, but as the sector expands so
do the dangers."

Web counseling companies such as MyTherapy.Net  and HelpHorizons.com say that they provide a valuable service to people too busy or nervous to visit a therapist in person.

Most services use the instant messaging (IM)
technique, which leaves no trace and so cannot be
subject to a court order, and allows therapists
and patients to hold a "live" on-line exchange.

There are no figures for how many people seek
keyboard counseling, but the number of providers
is rising. MyTherapyNet has seen an increase in
monthly users from fewer than 500 a year ago to
almost 10 times that figure now.

"We have had a lot of professional naysayers but
I'm confident that we've proved our value," said
Greg Palumbo, the company president.

Yet even some therapists who dispense cyber-counseling admit to concerns about the absence of personal contact.

"For all I know, the patient who sounds quite balanced and normal in his messages might be
bouncing around the apartment in a chicken suit
making squawking noises," said Dr Richard Sansbury, a Maryland psychiatrist, who says that he conducts a third of his counseling on-line.

"I see a role for on-line therapy, particularly
for people who wouldn't normally visit a therapist
in person, but you cannot just transfer traditional psychotherapy lock, stock and barrel into cyberspace. I'll offer advice on how to handle things but I won't give a diagnosis."

The e-therapy industry agrees that IM is not
appropriate for treating suicidal tendencies, and
drugs cannot be prescribed on-line for anyone whom
the therapist has not met.

Costs vary. MyTherapyNet - which has 1,000 experts
on its books, from marriage counsellors to life coaches - charges $1.60 a minute for its "e-mmediate" service. At HelpHorizons.com, 30-minute packages start at $30; while eGetGoing
offers three-month, 12-step drug and alcohol
treatments for $1,200.

Mr. Palumbo said that for some patients, the
written word worked better than face-to-face conversation. "A lot of people feel more comfortable discussing issues that way, and can get right to the core of things," he said.  "Depression and stress are very treatable on-line."

The market has an uncanny way of sorting these kinds of things out.

 

Perhaps some of the therapists who are feeling fear about losing their couch customers can sign up with an ePsych therapist for some counseling.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 15 May 2006

 

Toxic Parents & Causality


Hi Ed,

From your book list, I buy Toxic Parents and I enjoy reading it. I am shocked to see the immense impact a parent can do to the children's lives, to the point where the influence still exists even when the child is 50-years-old, and it never dies even if the toxic parent is dead.

As I read, however, it sounds too much like the causality model. The alcoholic/abusive/over-possessive parent is CAUSING the grown-up child to behave the way they behave. Moreover, doesn't the word "toxic" suggest judgment of some sort? So while the cause-and-effect makes a lot of sense to me, and the parents' behavior (as the book describes) are clearly "toxic" to me, I wonder if the systemic worldview or the non-judgmental principle applies here. Thanks!!

Worldview is something you bring to the situation.

 

You can see toxic parents as "causing" children to grow up with psychoses.

 

Alternatively, you can see toxic parents conveying k-nots to children and noticing these k-nots tend to entrain behavioral patterns.

 

The causal model is useful for establishing linkages between otherwise non-interacting elements (like one billiard ball striking another). 

 

The system model is useful for thinking about the evolving interactions between elements that feed information back to each other.

 

 

 

In Billiards, the Best Players

 

consider how the balls

are likely to effect each other

many shots ahead.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.poolsharp.com/images/123_ball.gif

 

Mon, 15 May 2006

 

TSP study

Hello!

I like the development of the chart server and the mission statement. You bet I'm ready to commit to it. As proof, I am posting my study on a good system. I want to be part of this and ride the TT trend - this is exiting, so count my humble me in if you may.

I trust you know what to do with the study.

Thank you for your contribution.

Mon, 15 May 2006

 

Programming/Back Testing

Dear Ed,


In my spare time I'm trying to develop a trend following system, so that I can improve my chances of becoming financially independent. I have a question for you, one that shouldn't break any of your rules.

I've seen programs out there that can help you back test a system, or even trade a system if you feed it the parameters.

I can't afford any that I've seen.

I want to take one or more computer programming courses this summer and before I graduate so that I may create a program that I can use to back test my data and eventually create my system.

In your opinion, what's a good computer programming language to learn? Of course, if this breaks the "I won't tell you what to do" rule, then I understand, and I'll just take a couple of courses and do the best that I can.

But there's no harm in asking huh?

I wonder how you intend to trade your way to financial independence if you do not have enough money for a testing program.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about not having enough money to your Tribe as entry points.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 15 May 2006


Going in Circles

Dear Ed,

I have this experience when process managing. The sender is a beginner and on her first hot seat:

S=Sender; PM=Process Manager

PM: I wonder how you're feeling right now.
S: I'm feeling pain in the back.
PM: Good, can you feel more of that pain?
S: No, I don't want to.
PM: OK, can you experience the "not wanting" part?
S: ...
S: I feel like I want to stretch.
PM: OK, then stretch as much as you can. Fully stretch!
(Sender tries some stretching)
S: I don't like that.
PM: OK, how does it like to "not like" it?
S: I don't know.
PM: Can you experience the "not knowing"?
S: ...

I feel like we're going in circle and the sender is trying to engage in a dialogue rather than experiencing her feelings. So I try to check for willingness:

S: I'm feeling pain in the back again.
PM: Are you willing to experience that pain?
S: No, I don't like it.
PM: How is it feel to "not like" it?
S: It feels like moving...I want to move my body.
PM: Can you keep moving and move even more? (Receivers also cheer her to move)
(Sender tries to move)

We get a little bit out of it, but overall it seems we are applying force in the wrong direction. As I recall your saying in FAQ 2/10/05, "Application of force in any other direction, makes an object goes around in circles," I wonder how I can better manage the process. On the other hand, if the sender's path is a circular path, then to promote flow, do I just keep pushing her in that circular path, just like the bubble chamber particles in your picture? Thanks.

OK. Try this:

 

PM: I wonder how you're feeling right now.
S: I'm feeling pain in the back.
PM: Good, can you feel more of that pain?
S: No, I don't want to.

 

PM: So are you willing to do TTP?

S: No, I don't want to.

PM: OK, thank you.  So let's have a check out and then go to the next person.
 

Tue, 16 May 2006

 

Momentum and EMA's


Could you please explain how do you implement momentum in your trading with Exponential Moving Averages?

Thanks a lot in advance!

I don't implement momentum; I notice it and align my trading with it.

Mon, 15 May 2006

 

A Market Top, an Opportunity and/or Both

Hi Ed!

 

this, from an article ... (no citation yet)


Red hot commodities:

the traders who trade them

With markets like energy and metals surging and setting records, demand has skyrocketed for experienced commodities traders. Citigroup said this week that it expected to almost double it's trading staff and Credit Suisse, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers are hiring as well. And with huge demand, prices for traders have naturally surged....

The hottest commodity in the booming commodities markets would seem to be the traders themselves.

So great is the scramble to strengthen once-neglected commodity trading desks and so scarce is the top talent that experienced traders are now commanding seven-figure sign-on fees and bonuses to match.

Industry executives said senior energy traders were receiving sign-on fees of more than $2m (¤1.5m) in some cases. Two years ago sign-on fees were unheard of in the energy market. Commodity traders were largely unwanted during the 1990s and in the immediate aftermath of the Enron collapse and banks trained few new staff in their commodity trading divisions.

Now, the surge in energy and metals markets, which has seen gold and silver touch fresh 25-year highs and copper reach an all-time high of $8,825 a tonne, has forced banks to expand their commodity desks.

This week Citigroup said it planned to almost double its global commodities trading staff, while Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns are among the latest banks to strengthen their trading teams.

Barclays Capital, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Merrill Lynch, UBS, ABN Amro and BNP Paribas have all been expanding their commodity trading businesses.

Some of the recent large signings include Henrik Wareborn, who joined Lehman Brothers from Hess Energy Trading, and Xiao Qin, an oil options trader, who left Goldman Sachs for UBS.

"They [oil traders] have become some of the best paid people at the banks today," said one recruitment executive.

The salary inflation is also pushing up staff costs for oil companies, utilities and trading companies such as Glencore and Cargill, which all have big energy trading businesses....

But it is not just the top traders reaping the benefits. Even less experienced traders are commanding six-figure sign-on fees and guaranteed bonuses for up to three years, according to industry executives. Some are concerned that certain traders lack the necessary experience and fear their appointment to key positions could increase the risk of trades going wrong. "There is more potential for a blow-up if you have someone that does not have experience to deal properly with the risk a bank is taking on," said one analyst.

Yes.  See Magazine Cover, below

Sun, 14 May 2006

 

Gas Price War


Re : Mon, 24 Apr 2006 GAS WAR - An Idea That WILL Work

 


I pretty much agree with you here Ed, except for a couple of points -

Ed says :


1) Price is a reflection the interplay of many buyers and sellers. If you successfully boycott one seller, that seller goes out of business.


2) This reduces competition. Other sellers soon experience a shortage and / or raise prices.


3) So, in addition to hurting retail vendors, the boycott inconveniences consumers and results in them having less choices and having to pay more, not less for gasoline.

I say :


1) Agreed on "interplay". But anyone who seriously believes that the president of Exxon will simply throw his hands in the air, exclaim "Oh, NO!", close down the company and give up his exalted salary just because of a boycott, please raise your hand now. :)
If I accept your Guarantee that Exxon will shut down, the rest of your arguments follow, but I can't agree on that step. "Mergers" are what put sellers out of business, not charging reasonable prices.
Exxon will not go out of business, that is not the consequence of a boycott. Exxon will lower prices to re-capture business.

2) THIS (lowering prices) increases competition - other seller's business will increase, making all of them more efficient & effective competition in the marketplace.

3) Any temporary pain to retail vendors or customer inconvenience will be rapidly righted by the natural flow of the markets. Except that now, consumers are respected as part of the market equation and they pay less for gasoline.

My other minor point of disagreement involves your "Populist party" side-bar.  In previous FAQ comments, you did an excellent job of showing that primary political party activity is "trying to invalidate the other party" as opposed to "saying/doing anything worthwhile".  But here, you take everyone who wants to act Now and place them in the Populist party in the Past, and then you try to invalidate that "straw man" party by claiming they want government intervention.
 

No government intervention is required or requested by this E-mail - just action by real people, and the power of publicity. Similar to the creation of an independent America : Some colonials, annoyed with ever higher tea prices, say "No taxation without representation" and dump some British tea in the water.  See how well it works? (And I bet that tea prices are lower today, not higher.)

In any case, I received (& passed on) that E-mail myself weeks ago, except there was no professor's name at the bottom. Just my favorite scenario - Read it for Yourself, Decide for Yourself, Act on Your Own Responsibility (no professorial or other influence). And I am not a member of the Populist party or any other party.


I refer you to my favorite quote : "Running for political office should be a capital offence."

1. The seller I refer to is the seller who feels the boycott most, namely the mom-and-pop service station that administers the gasoline to your tank - not the integrations above them in the supply chain.

 

2. I do not see how a price war increases competition.  Having more competitors increases competition.

 

3.  I see no relationship between "customer respect" and price.  Customer respect tends to increase as a function of service, again reflecting the number of competitors.

 

-----

 

While the chain letter does not request government intervention (which tends to reduce competition) it does show the existence of the kind of emotional k-nots the public has about rising prices. 

 

Such k-nots are easy targets for politicians who promise to rout out the "greedy villains" and get prices back down.

 

More likely, inflation reflects an expansion in  national debt as is consistent with the age of our country.

 

You might like to keep watch over the upcoming political season - and notice how politicians from all major parties pitch the populist line to angry voters.

 

One of the functions for the party in power is to take the credit and/or the blame for events over which they have little control.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about Exxon to your tribe as an entry point.

 

 

 

Politicians are Willing

to blame almost anyone / anything

 for inflation

 

except their own unwillingness

to stop spending.

 

 

Clip: http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/faq.html

 

Fri, 12 May 2006

 

Chart Server

Hello Ed,

I have a contribution to make to the TT chart server. The contribution is the attached jpeg in this email. The jpeg is the Euro.

 

 

Euro
 

Thank you for the catch.

Sat, 13 May 2006

 

Frustration

What is the positive intention of frustration?

Frustration indicates blockage along your path.

 

Its positive intention is to inform you to remove the blockage, find another path, abandon the goal, etc.

 

Frustration in a k-not tends to entrain blockages in all your paths.

 

 

The Positive Intention of Frustration

 

is to apply a tool to remove the blockage.

 

 

When frustration is in a k-not

you entrain blocks everywhere

and your life fills up with

 

whatever.

 

 

Clip: http://img.epinions.com/images/opti/

d4/fd/Chicago_Specialty_Li_l_Rose_Toilet_Plunger_

Shop_Tools-resized200.jpg

Sat, 13 May 2006

 

Weight Up


My weight this morning was 250 lbs

This was a very unproductive week of overeating and a lack of exercise. I commit to eating right and exercising for the next seven days.

Your aversion to doing the work seems to be paying off for you.

 

See Weight Loss, below.

Fri, 12 May 2006

 

Magazine Cover


Ed,

For what its worth, I got this cover in the mail two days ago. (May 10).

Congratulations on hitting the ball out of the park in commodities land. A macro cycle repeats for you.

I like to come for a pollinator session sometime in the next few months. My Tribe goes well. I miss IV TTP.

I manage $10M now and enjoy the process.

Best,

 

 

 

Thank you for the heads-up on the cover. 

 

Hmmm ... The cover seems to be doing a better job of calling the top than the pros. See copper chart, below.

Fri, 12 May 2006

 

New Tribe in China



Dear Ed,

My intention is to feel my feelings and support
others. I intend to start a new Tribe in Tianjin of China. I study English listening everyday, because your Workshop is no audio-visual equipment.

Send a TID to FAQ, per the instructions at Tribe Directory, above.

Thu, 11 May 2006

 

Social Infants


I believe that people who say they don't have anything to work in a hot seat are selfish cowards. If they can't find an uncomfortable feeling within themselves, maybe they can find one associated with the injustice and inhumanity experienced around the world. When I'm willing to feel, I step up to the plate and grow. DIM is for social infants.

I know ... I'm on my way to a tribe meeting.

You might consider working on your feelings about other people.

Thu, 11 May 2006

 

Snapshot Follow Up


Dear Mr. Seykota:

Enclosed is the follow up for my snapshot for 4/27/06. The Microsoft word format have all the details. Once again I thank you for the opportunity to attend your Tribe it was a life time experience for me.

 

1. Right livelihood: Snapshot: # Keep my position in the major trend and follow proper position sizing.

 

Summary:  Basically after the meeting.  Excitement took over the trades.  Accts is up so far this month.  I feel I need more clear definition in my trading strategy and more consistency and convincing result.

 

 

2.Body: Snapshot: # My chest stick out further than my stomach. 

 

Summary:  I feel very good about my progress.  I feel great in terms of my body, however I know there is still big belly so I’m going to keep working hard.

 

 

3. Relationship: Snapshot:  # Take a girl out on a date.

 

Summary: I’ve approached two women; one was referral and one on my own.  One never answers and the other is busy moving house right now so she said in about two weeks.  I also had one girl I met one month a go called me all the sudden on Tuesday but I wasn’t attracted to her so I did not go out with her.

 

 

4. Fun - Snapshots:  Buy expensive electric piano player and start practicing.

 

Summary:  I feel I want to be more successful in other areas of snapshots before I buy this piano. 

 

Per #3, intentions and commitments soon entrain opportunities.  At that point, it's up to you to "use 'em or loose 'em."

 

Nothing in your commitment precludes your spending an enjoyable evening with someone with whom you don't have immediate attraction.

 

Some of my happily married friends tell me they do it all the time.

Thu, 11 May 2006

 

My Commitments

 

• Fun - I commit to spending 2 hours a week on the beach. Sunday night I note down if I follow through on my commitment

• Relationships - I commit to calling my mom once every week and sharing at least one story of what is going on in my life this week. I also commit to noticing my feelings that come up when I talk to her. After our conversation I note down the story I share with her and what feelings come up for me in connection with our conversation.

• Right livelihood - I commit to following every signal of my trading system.  Sunday night I note down how many signals I receive during the week and if I follow them exactly (Type of trade, quantity, price)

• Body - I commit to doing a 40 minute cardio workout 3 times a week and also doing abdominal exercises for 5 sets of 12 repetitions after each cardio workout. Sunday night I note down if I follow through on my commitment.

Thank you for sharing your process. 

 

 

Wed, 10 May 2006

 

Stuck in Frustration

Dear Ed,


How are you?


Since our last correspondence, I continue practicing TTP and the quality of our tribe's gathering improved a lot: everyone went to the hot seat and we did some good works. Another thing I want to thank you is that I learn from you the nerve of sitting on the positions. I can imagine how you will react when encountering some difficulties. So my trading is OK.

Even though every thing in my life seems OK, I feel frustrated now. I am looking for some jobs which I have passion, however I cannot even get an interview after sending many resumes.

 

I have to stuck in a job that I have less interest. I brought this to our tribe meeting several times and I still feel my frustration. I am not sure whether you have any suggestion on this. I hope your words may bring me an aha. Thank you in advance.

See: The Joy of Stuck, below

Wed, 10 May 2006

 

Emotional Numbing

Ed,


This is the second symptom of post traumatic stress that is a condition I think I still deal with.

It only became clear to me recently.

When I lost my loved ones, my marriage, left my job, sold our house, ended a future relationship with a man who wanted to marry me ---- I went into "emotional numbing".

It is not shock. It is not when your body goes cold.

Let me describe this phenomenon as I un-felt it:

It is the numbness of emotions - when your emotions are given anesthesia like novocaine.

That's it, like undergoing dental work.

When the novocaine wears off, you start to feel those feelings again in varying degrees of pain.

It is the human being's natural defense mechanism, I believe, to prevent the onset of immeasurable excruciating pain all at once.

The heart/mind/soul/spirit then decides when to thaw out. Unfreeze.

I haven't read too much literature about numbing. You are probably an expert about it already. But I would like to read more.

You might consider joining / starting a Tribe in your area.

 

 

 

 

Novocain®

 

Procaine hydrochloride is a local anesthetic for use primarily in dentistry, typically by the trade name Novocain®.

The German chemist Alfred Einhorn synthesizes Procaine in 1905 - it becomes the first injectable man-made local anesthetic. He gives it the trade name Novocaine, from the Latin 'Novus' (meaning New) plus 'caine' as in "cocaine". Surgeon Heinrich Braun introduces it into medical use.

Today, Procaine is less popular and less effective than  hypoallergenic alternatives such as lidocaine (xylocaine). Prior to the discovery of procaine, doctors commonly prescribe cocaine as a local anesthetic. Procaine (like cocaine) constricts blood vessels, reduces bleeding and has euphoric and addictive qualities.

 

Source: http://encyclopedia.laborlawtalk.com/

novocaine

Wed, 10 May 2006

 

Trading Up and Weight Down



Dear Ed,

Last Wednesday evening I had by far my most intense and deep hot seat since joining the [City] tribe. It starts with my talking to get myself hot. This in turn leads to a very intense and deep cry - one I have longed for but not done. I have wanted to cry, and have cried, but not like this. My stomach muscles draw in and up and time stands still. After allowing myself to cry, my entire body feels electrified and again I allow myself to feel it with the incredible support of the tribe.

 

It goes on and on and I let myself have it. The support is unbelievable - I am affirmed by drums and cheers. In hindsight, as I write, I understand that the more I allow myself to have my time and my hot seat, the more intense, warm, and relevant the receiving is. It is just incredible. The experience goes on and on, and I let myself experience it and have it. The journey is long and otherworldly - I can't explain it and have no concrete recollection of it, but it is intense and I instinctively know that it is what my body needs to
do.

I go home, read a little, and fall asleep.

The next day I am easily annoyed and kind of hot in general. This is odd, I think to myself. This condition persists for a couple of days. Then I decide to allow myself to enjoy the day and the weekend and I have a nice time.

When I joined the tribe  one of the goals was to 'save' my marriage. The opposite happened and I know that it is good in spite of the losses and pain.

My trading has gone from systematically inflicting pain and suffering on myself to riding winners and cutting losers. I win because I can, and no longer lose because I can 'afford' to. My size is smaller, confidence is up, and equity is rebuilding. I have no problem doing nothing and allow myself to love being on the right side.

An old friend asked if I lost weight. It was awesome!


I am not 'dieting', but find eating habits have changed without a conscious effort. Weight is trending down.

I enjoy making connections with people. This was lost for a long, long time. I am allowing myself to be 'out there' again, sharing myself.

As I write this I realize that I still seek permissions from my ex-wife-to-be.

 

I seek permissions that I know will not be granted and are incredibly frustrating when they are not. I have more work to do.

Thank you for the support, Ed, and thank you to the [City] tribe chief for this very special place.

Sincerely,

Thank you for sharing your process. 

 

Rich and thin can be a nice combination.

  

 

Clip: http://www.fitnessexpressmanhattan.com/

assets/images/rich_thin.gif

Tue, 9 May 2006

 

Losers Average Losers

Winners Average Winners

Hi Mr. Seykota and all FAQ readers.

I just want to share something so simple that I am sure many of you have already heard many times over but the more I say think about it, the more money I make, the happier my trading and non trading life become and perhaps in its own way this one simple idea will help nudge me and others toward right livelihood.

Losers average losers and winners average winners’, is the line I often find myself saying out loud at my trading desk.

It’s a cliché I know and I’m sorry if it’s a disappointment for that to be my revelation but if you are trend follower by averaging a loser you are betting against the prevailing trend, by averaging a winner you are betting with the prevailing trend, it can’t be any simpler.

If I’d never averaged a loser in my life financially my life would be unrecognizable from today and if I’d had more confidence to average my winners my account would look significantly different, as would my house, car, and financial safety net. The emotional highs and lows trading against this idea has caused also means my relationship with my loved ones and alcohol would be improved.

Just wanted to put something back after taking so much from FAQs and don’t take this powerful idea to lightly.

 

Thanks.

Thank you for the reminder.

Mon, 8 May 2006

 

Arbing the Workshop Price

You offer a nice arbitrage opportunity on the workshop page.

Is the bull / bear bucket shop open for biz?

1.7862 bid / 1.9862 offer?

You’ve been hanging around the silver pits, haven’t you?

OK. If you can do it for less than my bank you can have the business.

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

 

Variation in Mexico


Mr. Ed Seykota.

I am 36, married, with 2 children, have a Business degree and live in [City], México. I have been trading for almost 6 years and I have my own trading system that is historically profitable.

 

Unfortunately I began to trade my system with real money from the beginning of 2004 so my trading record is not very impressive and I know that I need to learn a lot more to be a very successful trader. But I have a larger problem to just trade my system, like you say in your book (THE TRADING TRIBE) is not just to have a system and trade it, the problem is to follow the system exactly as it is and to handle the feelings of boredom, hope, fear, greed and despair.

 

As today I have a VARIANCE with my system and real money of -$ 24,462.50 USD !!

I do not exactly follow my system and think I know more than my system and I end loosing money.

Here in Mexico there are very few people that know about trading futures, when I tell people what I do they stare at me and say WHAT? , I have one friend that used to trade Forex, when I first met him he was down $80,000.00 and when he was down $100,000.00 he quitted so I really have nobody to talk about trading or the markets, all that I know and have learned is by reading a lot of books, research, making and testing systems, trading with real money and watching the markets everyday.

 

I knew about you because I read the book MARKET WIZARDS by Jack D. Schwager, and one thing that came to my attention is that great traders had a mentor, like Mr. Eli Tullis taught Paul Tudor Jones and you taught Mr. Michael Marcus.

I have read your book THE TRADING TRIBE and I believe that TTP is my solution to my trading and Right Livelihood, I checked the Tribe directory and notice that there is not a Trading Tribe in Mexico, could you please inform me what can I do to attend a Tribe meeting and what to do if I would like to start a Trading Tribe here in Mexico ?

Thank you very much.

See Tribe Directory - How to Join, above. 

Sun, 7 May 2006

 

Moving Toward Snapshot

Re: my snapshot process to start a business ...

 

I just found a 2 year old machine that goes for around 18K (new) on eBay. Current bid: $3,400. Do you think it's an omen? Is my intention manifesting??? Is my snapshot unfolding before my eyes?? This is a better machine than the one I had envisioned.


They say if it's meant to be, all obstacles will fall away. Today I sat between two women I never met before, one of whom has a similar business in [City]and another who is General Manager for a supplier - and who promised to send me an insider pricing list. The gal from [City] has promised to share her contracts if I share my patient education document - looks like things are moving.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

Sun, 7 May 2006

 

Trading Tribe Amsterdam

After reading the book, I think this is an excellent process. I am committed and willing to try this in Amsterdam. Any help you can offer is appreciated.

See Tribe Directory - How to Join, above.

Sat, 6 May 2006

 

Weight Loss

My weight this morning is 245lbs.

 

 

 

You might consider sending a graphic that is legible and fits on the page.

 

If this seems like too much work for you, you might take your feelings about hard work (like losing weight) to your Tribe.

 

 

 

 

Sat, 6 May 2006

 

Second Book

Hi Ed,

I hope you are writing your second book.


You are a wonderful writer, Ed. You have a terrific way with words, both verbally and in writing.  You make things crystal clear with laser vision.

While The Trading Tribe is my first book in print, I consider it to be my 50-th book.  The first 49 are the drafts, revisions, re-revisions and proofs that are part of the process of clarifying the message prior to going to print.

 

Fri, 5 May 2006

 

TTP and a Suicide-Prone Teenager

Dear Ed,

I want to express my appreciation for the TTP process you're developing. I am using it again today in working with a suicide-prone teenager in a locked facility. As I wait for him to finish meeting with a doctor, one of his counselors comes into the hallway. She expresses concern that he is not willing to feel "better". She has the willingness part down but not the acceptance of his feeling process. She enlists my support. I feel uncomfortable. I know that I cannot make him feel "better".

We start the session sharing feelings with each other. He is discouraged that he doesn't seem to meet people's and his expectations of feeling better. I share with him my own fear and sadness concerning an upcoming surgery. We don't try to change each other. We just listen to each other.

I spend an hour talking with the young man. He is candid and open about feelings of fear, depression, confusion and hopelessness. He describes the process as a 'flip-flopping" of feelings. I encourage him to keep feeling those "flip-flops", that wisdom will come and that he is right where he is in the process. I am amazed at his willingness to be hospitalized and his surrender to 24 hour direct-line-of sight observation.

He talks about "cutting". This is a common behavior for youth who have so much emotional, internal pain that they feel relief in manifesting it in physical, external pain. The relief is so profound that the cutting feels "good" in contrast to the other. I just listen, being with him as he describes the experience. He shows me the many scars from months of secret cutting. He still cuts himself (desperate people can be creative in procuring sharp things) but now he goes to the desk and tells them "he messed up". He is flip-flopping between the urges to cut and stop cutting.

He expresses concern that there might be unpleasant, eternal consequences for killing himself ... some form of deteriorating karma. I share that for me it's a choice to hang in with the lesson and get the wisdom. (Fred the Feeling Pump will keep the dramas churning.) I share with him my own struggle to be willing to let people love me. We talk about willingness to let love and other feelings "in".

At the end of our time together, I haven't "fixed" anything. Or him. Or me. We leave each other expressing gratitude for our connection and plan to meet again. We are both choosing the tribal, warrior way of being.

 

Thank you, Ed, for your patient teaching.

You might consider implementing a couple of Tribes in your facility - one for your counselors and one for your patients.

 

 

 

Cutting

 

Cutters tend to have conflicting feelings

and try to resolve them

by mutilating their bodies.

 

In TTP, we resolve conflicting feelings

by taking the hot seat.

 

Clip: http://assets.families.com/

Encyclopedias/dat_01_img0070.jpg

Fri, 5 May 2006

 

Ever Wonder Where Alfred E. Newman Is?

 

 

 

 

In TTP we take our what-me worries to Tribe as entry points.

Fri, 5 May 2006

 

A Simple Trading System

Hi Ed,

This is a very simple trading method which cut losses and compound profits.

Rules:

- Buy/Sell on weekly breakouts with stop loss set to previous week low/hi

- Keep all profitable positions open until their stop is reached

After a sideway period, a major trend may have developed; some positions would survive in the direction of the major trend, by keeping all the profitable positions open the profit will largely exceed the losses driving our equity into the plus.

You seem to be describing the Donchian one-week rule, a fairly high-frequency trading system.

 

To see a lower-frequency version, the 6-Month Rule, register as a member of the Chart Server, above at charts.

Fri, 5 May 2006

 

A Motto For Your Music Room



After silence, that which comes nearest to expressing the inexpressible is music

-- Aldous Huxley, "Music at Night", 1931

DOTS-6 DOTS-1 DOTS-124 DOTS-2345 DOTS-15 DOTS-1235

DOTS-234 DOTS-24 DOTS-123 DOTS-15 DOTS-1345 DOTS-14 DOTS-15 ,

DOTS-2345 DOTS-125 DOTS-1 DOTS-2345 DOTS-2456 DOTS-125 DOTS-24 DOTS-14 DOTS-125

DOTS-14 DOTS-135 DOTS-134 DOTS-15 DOTS-234

DOTS-1345 DOTS-15 DOTS-1 DOTS-1235 DOTS-15 DOTS-234 DOTS-2345 DOTS-2345 DOTS-135

DOTS-15 DOTS-1346 DOTS-1234 DOTS-1235 DOTS-15 DOTS-234 DOTS-234 DOTS-24 DOTS-1345 DOTS-1245

DOTS-2345 DOTS-125 DOTS-15

DOTS-24 DOTS-1345 DOTS-15 DOTS-1346 DOTS-1234 DOTS-1235 DOTS-15 DOTS-234 DOTS-234 -

DOTS-24 DOTS-12 DOTS-123 DOTS-15 DOTS-24 DOTS-234

DOTS-134 DOTS-136 DOTS-234 DOTS-24 DOTS-14 .

Fri, 5 May 2006

 

Subconscious Mind

Sir,

I want to learn about the subconscious mind. Is there any resource available in the form of a book or on the Internet ? I tried but could not get it. All the page hitters would, I think, feel privileged, Sir, if you can provide some valuable inputs, briefly, on the subject.

If you wish to study your subconscious, your own subconscious might be your best resource.

 

Your Tribe can help you examine it.

 

 

 

Your Own Subconscious

 

can be a good resource

 

and

 

it's always nearby.

 

 

Clip: http://www.photoshopelementsuser.com/

contests/contest2.php

Thu, 4 May 2006

 

How Many Snapshots

Hi Ed,


do you find it more beneficial to have several snapshots (one for each area of your life) or to combine several areas of your life in one snapshot?

Thank you for your insight.

In Incline Village, we maintain snapshots in four areas: Right Livelihood, Body, Relationships and Fun.  For each of these we may make multiple commitments to bring evidence to the next meeting of progress in each area.

Thu, 4 May 2006

 

Waiting

Hello Ed,

I've had a beautiful new baby boy, and I've taken 2 months off of my job to spend time with my family and move toward my snapshot.

I'm happy. I'm afraid. I'm sad. I'm angry.

I know I am fortunate to have a loving family, but I'm not where I want to be now, and I can't stand the waiting.

I know..."clarify your snapshot, feel the feelings (enjoy them), and take the next right action"

I hate the waiting !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Enjoy hating the waiting?

Sigh, smile... (okay)

You might consider taking your feelings about waiting to your Tribe - or maybe wait a while to do this.

 

 

 

 

Unwillingness to Wait

 

can be costly in food services,

in trading

and in life in general.

 

Clip: http://www.nevtron.si/borderline/waiter.gif

Thu, 4 May 2006

 

Scalping

Dear Mr. Seykota,

Thank you for your Wipe Out statement (4 Apr 2006) and the nice analogical surfer picture.  Your “The Wipe Out is just one of many stops around the trading cycle” makes me laugh and think every time I read it.

Please have a look what happened since I found your statement:

I am doing something “right” at the moment, ok it is more scalping than longer-term investment, but I must see “black ink” at this early stage for my track record and for my still existing ego. Greed is bad and stops are good. Mental stops are also good if followed.

You might consider taking your feelings about black ink, greed and stops to your Tribe as entry points.

Thu, 4 May 2006

 

Intentions of Feelings

Hi Ed,

While on the subway train to work this morning, I have this thought that I'd like to seek your comment:

We experience a burning feeling when we step in a tub of hot water. Our immediate reaction is to jump out of the tub. This burning feeling actually protects our body from further burn.

Let say instead of jumping out, we intentionally experience this burning heat by putting our feet in the tub. It may feel very uncomfortable in the beginning, but then later, our body adjusts to it and the burn doesn't feel as painful as before. Now if we do it enough times, slowly we increase our tolerance for heat, to a point where what used to get us jump out immediately becomes something that we can bear with.

I have two observations:

1) When I intentionally experience the burn feelings and it disappears, isn't that I'm actually disabling the positive intention that protects my body from getting burned?

and moreover,

2) Even if a person holds a judgment to this burn feeling, labeling it bad and simply doesn't like it - he'd still jump out of the tub of hot water when he un-purposefully and un-willingly step into it. In other words, isn't it then that no matter he likes/dislikes/ accepts/resists/feels good/feels bad/has a judgment/has no judgment about this burn feeling, it makes no difference? Even if he doesn't like a feeling, it is still on his control panel to carry our its positive intention (protect him from further burn) anyway?

Thanks.

Yes, feelings protect us quickly and automatically, working much faster than our logical process can.

 

In cases where we have our feelings in k-nots, this system does not work effectively.

 

We use TTP to untie our k-nots and restore the efficacy of our emotional instrument panel.

 

 

 

If You Put a Frog in Cold Water

 

and gradually turn up the heat

you can boil him alive.

 

Politicians know

you can raise taxes and remove freedoms

as much as you want

 

if you do it slowly.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.testedcharacter.com/

boilingfrogsm.gif

Thu, 4 May 2006

 

Ed - You still out there?


Can't help but think of you when I look at these commodity charts. Are you still in Incline Village?

Yes.

Wed, 4 May 2006

 

Copper Set to Plunge 20%

 

source: London Business Telegraph
By Tom Stevenson 04/05/2006


Copper price 'set to plunge by 20pc'

The soaring price of copper could drop by a fifth in the next two to three months, a senior trader on the floor of the London Metal Exchange has warned. The dealer, who asked to remain anonymous, said recent market fluctuations were typical of the trading pattern prior to a significant change of direction.

"I expect a 20pc correction. The market will be volatile and illiquid for a while before it cracks," he said. The LME accounts for around 90pc of the world's trade in copper, dwarfing rival markets in New York and Shanghai.

Hmmm ... I don't recall seeing a follow-up from Tom since his prediction.

 

 

 

Price as of the Prediction Shows in Red

 

A 20% decline from the 350 area

would give a price decline of 70 cents

to a price of 280.

 

Since the prediction, the price makes a high

of around 405 + 55 or + 13.5%

 

 

Wed, 3 May 2006

 

Get Yourself Free



Hi Mr. Seykota:

Following is my pollinator report, (for Thursday 27th 2006 From 2:00PM to 12:00PM) as per my commitment. I wanted to wait a few days until my brain settled a bit.

One of the IV village member kindly picks me up at the airport. We talked about how TTP affected our lives so far and how the new 4 snapshots (Livelihood, Fun, Relationship, and Body) is a brilliant formula. I told her relationships were the toughest to deal with. She sort of agree. I felt the difference in the attitude toward the process of TTP from her from what my attitude is. (You are the world) I started to feel a little nervous. I arrived at the IV Village home and she introduces me to Ed. (What a moment, at least for me.)

He is still working so I wait upstairs to help her prepare some snacks for all the members and work on my snapshots in the mean time. Other members starting to arrive and I am getting extremely nervous. Atmosphere is friendly yet extremely intense. Here we go, everybody is at the table going over the Snapshots process based on the new formula. I personally never done snapshots process and as process goes in front of my eyes, I had hard time understanding what it is that everybody is trying to accomplish. Boom, I realize hardcore honest truthful criticism gets people in touch with feelings we are unwilling to experience in daily life.

 

Ed asks the member "How are you feeling right NOW and sender responds and Ed goes "log that feeling for hot seat" As we do this process Ed also has snap shots and gets a criticism from other members.

 

As for my snapshots two of the members criticisms sinks deeply in to my heart and soul. " I can't see any type of commitment what so ever" and "All I see is Loneliness, Pain and Fear from this snapshots" What a difference what I thought my snapshots was (you are the world) Then you ask which is true then the answer is obvious.

We eat dinner together over looking the beautiful lake. It's around 6:00PM and we are on to TTP. Drumming was nice and gentle. Ed is the process manager. I find out I had no idea what process manager is. Process Manager in my opinion is the most difficult and royal task a tribe member can take. I salute to Ed for process managing with all his attention and care for everybody that goes in to the Hot Seat.

 

Nervously I say " I want to get on the Hot Seat" Ed goes " NOW what is your problem" I realize I had to feel my problems so I go " I got extreme fear " Slowly I get into my form. I realize without the Snapshot Process I could never or dare experience this feeling. After the hot seat I could not help but to notice the sound from outside.

Night is over and everybody is saying goodbye to each other. When I came home I am extremely motivated. I started to work on my commitments. Thank you very very much Mr. Seykota. I felt free for the first time in years. My intention is to send you the commitments with the evidence for my snapshots and send it to you via email or express mail, also my clear intention is to get qualify for the regular membership to the IV Village Tribe Membership on first empty membership spot. I am committed to contribute for the other members and myself. I thank you for your cooperation and attention on this matter.

Sincerely,

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

Untie Your K-nots

 

and set yourself free.

 

 

Clip: http://www.freedom-hols.co.uk/frontend/

images/welcomephoto.jpg

Thu, 04 May 2006

 

Going to Cambridge

Dear Ed,

I am a new member of the [Name] tribe.
I don’t trade yet with real money.
I am practicing a forex demo, applying a trend following system with discipline.
I learn a lot reading the FAQ and during our TTP's.
I am reading the book of Daniel Goleman as recommended by you.
I want to thank you for all the insight you give us through the FAQ.
I commit myself to be Cambridge on July 21.

OK.

Wed, 03 May 2006

 

A Good System



Dear Ed,

At our last TTP (research on system) we discovered that the basic problem of a trader is not having a good system of trading and or unable to find one.
That even if you find a profitable system (paper profit) using sophisticated and very expensive software, 90% of the traders won't be able to follow it as soon as a drawdown will appear.
 

One of our member suggested inventing a traveling machine to sort the psycho of these traders. Probably hundred of millions may be billions have been spend to find system based on the past data, and that money could have instead being spend inventing that machine.
 

Einstein said that this was impossible and the simple reason was that if such think was possible we would already have been visited by our future people.
Being a graduated engineer of the MIT can you please give us your insight on that and share your knowledge if any of that area?
 

Thank you again for the FAQ hope you will update soon the TSP.

Extra-terrestrials who live in the non-existing future, don't exist either.

 

 

 

People Who Sell Tours to the Future

 

usually ask for payment today.

 

 

Clip: http://bookweb.kinokuniya.co.jp/

bimgdata/FC1573929905.JPG

Wed, 3 May 2006

 

Recommendation


Ed,

I recommend [Name] for a pollinator session in the Incline Village tribe when the availability presents itself.

He demonstrates the commitment and the willingness towards pushing the evolution of the process forward. He takes the hot seat at every meeting and process manages most of the hot seats in his tribe.

I believe his attendance in the Incline tribe for a
pollinator session to be extremely beneficially for
himself and his own tribe.

OK.

Wed, 3 May 2006

 

The Joy of Stuck



Dear Ed,

I was on the hot seat last night for our tribe meeting. I was trying to work on the feelings that I have as I am stuck, not sure what I want (in life) and not sure where I want to go.

It takes over two hours, and I thank my process manager and receiver to support me throughout the entire journey. They are both beginners, just started last month or so, yet they perform just like an expert.

I go through a lot of forms. Some even quite nasty. During the process, I find myself on the floor, and I also do a lot of breathing. These seems to be natural for me.

At one point when I am lying on the floor, I feel very heavy, especially my head. It is so heavy that it's almost impossible to lift my upper body up. I try it many times, and fail. After whatever number of tries, in the end, I take a deep breath, muster enough strength, and blast through it. I finally succeed in sitting up.

There is tremendous joy. I almost start crying. Crying for my victory - the hard work I put in that pays off now. I notice there is first the feeling of frustration at repeated failures, then feeling of determination that gathers energy, and finally an intense feeling as I blast through the resistance, and then the feeling of fulfillment.

Just when I feel great about it, my body slowly finds its way back down to the floor. It's like gravity, pulling me back. I go through the same cycle again. Somehow it resembles my real life where I get excited about my "goals," all pump up and ready to go and to become a new me who is committed and determined, only that it doesn't last long and very soon I am back to my old habitual self. It seems all so familiar.

So I gather all my energy and try for another run. I succeed for a while, but then if I go with my feelings, they pull me back down to the floor again. In fact, as it gradually pulls me down, like a stock breaking its support, my head goes into a free fall and hit the floor hard. Gosh, this pain I truly feel it!

As I am down lying on the floor again, it feels like something is holding me back. I am stuck. Yes, in fact, it becomes increasingly clear to me that I am NOT really feeling stuck. Everything I just did is actually to AVOID feeling stuck.

So I finally allow myself to feel stuck. As you say so many times in the FAQ, feel it purposefully, feel it joyously. That's what I do. My arms feel heavier and heavier, and I'm just stuck on the floor.

I stay on the floor for a long time. Very long time. That's what "stuck-ness" is. I don't know where to go; I don't know what to do.

I don't know how it begins, but somehow I start whistling. I whistle "London Bridge is Falling Down" (Chinese version); I whistle "Schindler's List." I whistle whatever that comes.

Experience the feeling fully. Purposefully. Joyfully. I start to get the idea.

The process manger and receiver are encouraging me. I am still stuck on the floor, but it's quite fun. I whistle Do-Re-Mi; I feel blissful and joy. Finally, as I get to sew (or maybe la?), I burst out laughter.

It's great. In fact, we do our check-out with me lying on the floor. It's good there. I am not even aware I am still "stuck" on the floor. I feel a little disoriented, but I feel very good about it.

Looking back, I can now see all the judges that prevent me from feeling the "stuck-ness." I can see how I avoid the feeling. I appreciate how the PM and receiver stay with me. I also feel good about my willingness to keep feeling. There are times when I thought about quitting but I stay with the feeling (I've gone this far - I am not going to just quit). I realize that if we fall short of our goals there's likely some feelings we are unwilling to experience. I notice that focusing on my feelings automatically keep me in the present moment. Exploring feelings is fun. I find myself having less and less judgment on my feelings, but more and more curiosity about them.

Thanks Ed!

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

Experiencing Stuck

 

is a good first step

towards getting un-stuck

 

 

Clip: http://www.truckworld.com/

Stuck-Of-The-Month/stuck-trucks.html

Tue, 2 May 2006

 

Proof: Testing Software is Impossible


See: http://www.hav.com/havfun.htm
 

Everything is impossible - until you add intention.

Tue, 2 May 2006

 

Bernake Spoof


http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/

organizations/follies/media/EveryBreath.wmv

You may have already seen this, if not, worth the four minutes IMO. I'd ask how your year is going but I see trends in copper, silver, gold, platinum, palladium, oil and did I miss any? LOL

Hope all is well Chief Seykota.

Thank you for the link.

 

 

 

Tue, 2 May 2006

 

Dating My Wife - Like Newlyweds

Ed,

A commitment that I make in the snapshot process is to speak with my wife for at least 15 minutes each day no matter what. I sneak off to one of your bedrooms after the Snapshot process while everyone else is making dinner and I call her to begin honoring my commitment. She's a little amazed and pleased that I am calling her for no other reason than to talk to her. So far, I honor this commitment every day. I also honor the commitments that I make in the other 3 parts of the 4 part snapshot process.

My hot seat has to do with how my wife and my father use guilt and anger to try to manipulate me into doing what they want. Another member plays the role of my wife as we argue. I become angry, flinging my arms and swearing.

 

You ask me to enjoy it which I do. I freeze the position and hold it as I surf the edge of the feeling. I become a little light headed and collapse to the floor catching myself and lying down on your Futon.

 

You ask me what is standing between me and telling my wife how I feel. I tell you it's fear of her reaction in the non-existing future. You ask me to show you that fear. I concentrate on it and bring it up, my chest begins to heave. Again you ask me if I'm willing to enjoy the fear. I am willing. I force a smile.

 

Strangely, the convulsing chest and heavy breathing turn into laughter. I laugh uncontrollably until my side hurts and then I lie quietly for a while.

 

You ask me what's standing between me and telling my wife how I feel. Nothing.  You ask what's her reaction going to be when I tell her. I don't know. It's sort of like the market. She's going to do what she's going to do. I can't predict it and that's OK.

My flight home is delayed so that I don't get home until the wee hours of the morning. The next day my wife and I engage in some of the best love making that we've had in the past decade. Calling her every day while I am away just to listen to her and tell her how much I love her clearly has an effect on her. It's almost like we are newlyweds again.

And if that wasn't good enough, my trading results over the past couple of days have been fabulous. I'm able to build a position in my father-in-law's account without any hesitation. When I'm fully loaded and the position is working better than I expect I'm not tempted to add more or take any off the table.

 

The most incredible part of it all is that several of the positions that I am already in suddenly begin to go ballistic. I check my risk and hang on for the ride. After 2 days in May my un-leveraged diversified portfolio is up 5%. I'm too skeptical to believe that TTP causes my stocks to go up; however, it does allow me to stay in them while they do!

I recall one of your statements: If you want to improve your trading, clean up your personal life.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

The Best Sex

 

is often a function

of communicating on many levels.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.forthegirls.com/g04/g33/

LACE_md004.jpg

Mon, 1 May 2006

 

King Kong Feeling

Ed,

The Dow is down and I have a 4% ROI today in an un-leveraged stock account after a good April. I'm starting to feel like King Kong. I have several positions that just won't quit going up including GIGM which is up more than 17% today. Before joining the tribe I let fear keep me out or get me out of these types of positions well before the top. Now I just experience my fear, check my risk exposure, and hold on for the ride. It's more fun and more profitable.

Thank you for sharing your process.  You might consider taking your King-Kong feeling to your Tribe as an entry point.

 

 

 

 

GIGM - May 1 in Red

 

Sometimes the King-Kong Feeling

is a signal to lighten up.

 

Mon, 1 May 2006

 

TTP and Tennis Elbow

 

Dear Ed,

Thanks again for letting me to attend IV Trading Tribe last week.

It was very helpful to see the source of the idea and make sure we are on the right way doing TTP in our own tribe.

I personally had a remarkable experience taking the hot seat. The issue is practically dissolved.

Also, the pain in my shoulder that was annoying me for more than two years is gone now. I found such unexpected surprise playing my every Sunday tennis game the next day I get back from Reno.

I still don’t get how TTP and physical issues are so related but the pain is gone and I am happy about it. By the way, I won 3:1.

I am very grateful to all IV Tribe members for their support and sharing their TTP skills.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

Tennis Elbow

 

can sometimes resolve

by un-tying k-nots

 

Clip: http://images.webmd.com/images/

hw/media66/medical/hw/h5551079.jpg

Mon, 1 May 2006

 

Starting with $1,100,000.00

As of the 1st day of May, 2006 I report that I incept trading in my fund today with initial assets under management of approximately $1.1 million. I intend to kick butt in the markets and raise more assets as I keep my commitment to report my progress to my Breathwork support team until I reach $5 million.

My weight is now 189 pounds, a loss of about 5 pounds over the past month. I intend to stick with both my trading plan and my fitness plan.

Thanks for all your support! I continue to benefit from it, and I notice that my results equal my conscious intentions more all the time.

Best to you all,

Thank you for sharing your process and congratulations on manifesting your snapshot.

Mon, 1 May 2006

 

The Zero Point in Cambridge

I see the Cambridge TTP Workshop title is "Life at the Zero Point." Meanwhile, I am thinking "Life is a System" in which we elaborate the Systematic basis of TTP. Perhaps these two can come together in Cambridge.

OK. Thank you for the suggestion