© Ed Seykota, 2003 - 2007 ... Write for permission to reprint.

Ed Seykota's

Frequently Asked Questions

Home  ...  FAQ Index & Ground Rules  ...  Tribe Directory - How to Join

TTP - The Trading Tribe Process  ...  Rocks  ...  Glossary

  TTP Workshop  ...  Resources  ...  Site Search  ...  The Trading Tribe Book

TSP: Trading System Project  ...  Breathwork

Associates Program  ...  Chart Server  ...  Contact Us

 

December 15-31, 2007

 

<==  Previous  |  Next  ==>

 

 

Note: The intention of inclusion of charts in FAQ is to illustrate trading principles - The appearance of a chart does not imply any kind of indication or recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out of any positions.

 

 

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Mon, 31 Dec 2007

 

Happy New Year!


Dear Mr. Seykota:

As of Now it is still 07 but I wanted to send this to you now. I thank you for your contribution and your work. I feel fortunate and grateful to be introduced to TTP. Thank you for sharing.

Best wishes for you and your family.

Thank you for the encouragement.

Mon, 31 Dec 2007


Thank You for TSP


I may be two years late to the game, but thanks for posting the exponential lag system with full logs to tie out. I was able to recreate the entire system in excel (without macros!) and tie out down to the penny for both the 150/15 and 325/85 results that you posted.

Always nice to be able to tie out with other people vs. working on an island. I'm happy to share the workbook if you want one to post.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

Yes, I would like to post a tutorial workbook that shows a step-by-step process for reproducing the results.

Sun, 30 Dec 2007

 

Snapshot Commitment

Dear Ed,

I support your feeling of "producing compromised work."

I am feeling you create value for many people with your video and book. I also feel hopeful for this value to come soon.

Thank you for your encouragement.

 

See Perfectionist, below

Sat, 29 Dec 2007

 

Cause, Effect or What ?


Hi Ed !

 



 

Clip: http://2photo.ru/uploads/posts/4268/

20071120/joe_baran/20_11_2007_

0044537001195507712_joe_baran.jpg


H A P P Y N E W Y E A R !

When you are ready to receive it, illumination seems to shine from many places.

Sat, 29 Dec 2007


Disjointed thinking (or I can't see the joints)

Dear Ed

It is the first time in some time I get excel out and try to see what patterns emerge in a set of data, I am far from an expert excel operator or statistician.

The system is a long-only system which places orders to buy index futures when at 10 day highs with a trailing stop that is set initially at the 10 day low and moves upwards to the 10 day low when a new 10 day high is reached.

 

The system exits on stops only. I appreciate that this system is simplistic and not attractive to trade (It returns about the same ICAGR as cash with a 25% maxpdd) but the system is only what has lead me to some thoughts, I am not asking for systems help.

I noticed that when I changed the % of the account I risked per trade from 1 to 2,  5, 10, 20 and 50% the ending equity moved higher as expected and so did the MAXPDD, however during this period the bliss remained pretty constant at 0.002 when rounded to three decimal places.

I begin to think how the emotional journey of turning £10,000 into £801,312 with a maxpdd of 77.7% would be very different to the feelings that would emerge when turning the same amount in to £136,000 with only a 52% maxpdd.

It seems to me that maximizing bliss might be a pure math way to decide what is Ďbestí for a system. I wonder what decides what is Ďbestí for a trader. I think it is not always maximum bliss.

Perhaps if you are only trading a small fraction of your net worth with a high risk per trade it might prove less stressful and easier to follow even through large draw-downs than trading a lot of your net worth with a lower risk strategy. You might end up with the same absolute cash return with less emotion on the lows.

Another rather strange idea that Iíve been coming back to lately is: Is discretionary trading medicinal if you derive no emotional satisfaction or dissatisfaction from it?

 

Perhaps some of the very successful discretional traders avoid drama because there trading has little effect on their self esteem? Maybe theyíd be as happy if they traded badly and found another job?

This idea leads me to think that rebuilding my self esteem will be the only way to reduce trading drama whilst trading at my discretion or following a system to the letter.

Another unrelated thought that you might enjoy is a conversation I have with a friend of mine who has just been given joint management of a small fund (He currently works as an analyst allocating a large banks funds to other managers). To paraphrase it goes something like this.

Me: What is it you are looking to get in to in the New Year?

Friend: Coal and Gold, what about you?

Me: Well Iím going to spend time when family is at work mulling over a few trading system ideas Iíve had this year, seeing if there is an edge somewhere.

Friend: I keep telling you in my office only a tiny fraction of funds we give money to our quant funds, they are so hard to get right. You would do well to stop looking for a holy grail.

Me: So how do the quant funds you have invested into done?

Friend: Well actually they are the best performers at present.

So there you have it, the quant funds are hard to get right, but when you do they seem to perform the best.

Happy New Year, I look forward to another year of personal growth.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider running further tests that vary the length of your trend definition parameter from 10 days to say, 20, 50, 100 and 200 days and other points as well.

 

Fri, 28 Dec 2007

 

Choppy Markets


Dear Mr. Seykota,

I hope you are doing well. I frequently look over FAQ and enjoy reading your responses, which can be humorous, insightful, and thought-provoking.

On to my immediate concern: I want to develop a trend-following system but am discouraged by a remark made on [website]. The website states:

We attribute our good long-term performance to superior research methods. Over the years the markets have become choppier, and many traders' returns have suffered. We have a technique that helps to identify these choppy markets and keep the system out during these periods.

I have noticed that yearly returns for trend followers have decreased since the early 1990's. I suspect that this partially can be attributed to the use of less leverage, but can it also be attributed to markets that do not trend as often? And if this is the case, why do you think this phenomenon is occurring?

Thank you very much for your time. I very much appreciate your responses and wish you the best!

The "no more trends" theory shows up every so often. Its sponsors seem to include people who have some issues with being able to stick with a Trend Following system.

 

See Counter-Trend, below.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 28 Dec 2007

 

People Vote With Our Feet

Ed,

 

This is from the Wall Street Journal.


Yesterdayís Wall Street Journal published the results of the Census Bureauís new 2007 population estimates, and highlighted an interesting relationship. The reporter found that the new data show states such as Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, which are experiencing extensive housing problems, had a slowdown in population growth. Michigan, another state with big housing problems, was one of two that saw population fall.

 

When we compare the population growth data with the state tax burdens we see that high taxes chase people away, while lower taxes associate with faster population growth.

The growth in government, as it shows up in taxation and regulation, seems to be a low-priority issue in this election cycle.

 

Voting on this issue may register, as you suggest, as migration.

 

 

The Ultimate Voting Machines

 

 

Clip: http://hazel8500.files.wordpress.com/

2007/07/feet-761353.jpg

Fri, 28 Dec 2007

 

New Tribe Member


Ed,

Just wanted to share with you all that my wife and I just brought home our newest tribe member on 25 December. Our daughter was born on the 24th at 1249 am. My wife and daughter both did an awesome job.

Thanks for all the help this year. Add to my snapshots: I receive my wife and children unconditionally.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Thu, 27 Dec 2007

 

Pool

 

Ed,

This is slightly above our skill level.

Billiards and Dominoes

Thank you for the clip.  Please send the source so I can include an attribution.

Thu, 27 Dec 2007

 

Cross Winds


Hi Ed,


This is why pilots make the big bucks. It's also why the wind is just another reason why the landings separate the men from boys. It's like getting out out of a position. Any body can take off (ie. put on a position) but its tough to land (ie. get out of a winning / losing position).

 

Cross Wind Flying

Thank you for the clip.  Please send the source so I can include an attribution.

Tue, 25 Dec 2007

 

Christmas
 

Ed,

 

I wish you a Merry Christmas.
 

Thank you, and many others, for the wishes.

Mon, 24 Dec 2007

 
World Clock
 

Ed,

This was sent to me this morning, I have not seen it before, talk about interesting!

World Clock

Thank you for the link.

 

 

Mon, 24 Dec 2007

 

Season's Greetings


Ed,

I wish a Merry Christmas to you, your family and all FAQ readers.

Happy Holidays everyone!

OK.

Mon, 24 Dec 2007

 

Back-testing a Life System
 

Hi Ed,

Merry Christmas!!!

It's actually 6:38 AM right now but something crosses my mind that I can't help but to jump out of bed to get on the computer to write to you before I lose the train of thoughts.

It starts with a trend-trading system. More and more I feel that a system's purpose is to ensure that we do not miss a trend when a real trend comes, because missing a really strong trend is lethal - so lethal that we are willing to pay the price of many small losses, just in case the real one emerges. Each entry doesn't guarantee a profit, in fact, each entry likely becomes losses. However, the odds is that if you follow it consistently, in the long run, you come out ahead.

I always see a lot of parallels between trading and living. It seems we may be able to apply the successful traits of one to the other. For example, more and more I see many life decisions is actually about balancing risk and reward - the "best" choice may depend on my risk tolerance. More and more I see that a key to successful trading is to be non-judgmental to "what-is" instead of what we think "it should." Meanwhile, a key to successful relationships, for example, is to be non-judgmental to who others are, instead of what we think "they should." If market is always right in trading, than reality is always right in life.

The thought of a "life" system has been dangling for a while, with rules like being truthful, accepting others as they are, and etc.

 

Being deceitful (or to lie to cover up something) is the opposite of being truthful. It is like a martingale system. Each time you "lose," you cover up by doubling down. You may get by it for some time, but one failed cover up and you will blow up, losing EVERYTHING. Lethal.

As such, following a life system with rules like being truthful is like an anti-martingale system that ensures we won't get ourselves in that situation. If we are honest, if we tell the truth EVERY time, it ensures that we won't get caught lying and the put ourselves in a position for an irrevocable crippling losses.

Moreover, we are not concerned about the outcome of each trade. Or in a life system, we are not concerned about the outcome of every time we tell the truth. Telling the truth may lead to something we generally consider "good" (e.g. drawing the other party closer to us), or something we generally consider "bad" (e.g. the other party gets really upset at us). All we know is, in the long run, if we stay truthful, we net out being a winner.

Following a system's rules, by itself, may not be profitable. If one follows a martingale system's rules, which is to double down after every loss, even if he has the discipline to follow it, or especially because he has the discipline to follow it, he likely ends up blowing up at some point. One beyond normal losing streak can wipe him out.

Here, back-testing plays an important role. Say we start from scratch as we don't know whether a martingale system or an anti-martingale system works better in the long run. So we backtest it, and when we see that martingale systems inevitably blow up when a strong trend emerges, while an anti-martingale system that goes with the trend gets back all the previous losses plus more when a trend comes (and they do inevitably come every now and then), that's when we know which system to choose to follow.

In a way, this seems like what the Rock Process is - back-testing our "rules." After we have our Resource Rock, we "back-test" it and see how it works. And this is what I like about the Rock Process, to actually test it and see for yourself. We don't follow a trading system just because Ed Seykota says so, just like we don't follow a life system because some "God" says so. We follow a system because we have done the research and testing on it that we feel that this set of rules gives us the best chance to attain long-term profitability.

To me, we don't need to "follow" a system if we can actually "see." When we actually see for ourselves CLEARLY, we naturally "follow" the rules in the sense that we become it. We live it. It isn't like Jesus consciously pondering if he is following all the "rules" - He just lives it.

Now, two questions pop up about the Rock-Process kind of back-testing:

1. Can it be back-tested? That is, can we take some rules and back-test it by taking us back to a past event and see how it will perform? In trading, we perform these kinds of backtest by taking our rules and apply it on some set of historical data, and we can see the results. However, a key assumption here is that our action will not significantly impact the market, or if it may have an impact, we can add some skid to estimate what the real results will look like.

But here's the thing: in real life, we can hardly estimate how the other party will react. We had a set of rules from our Medicinal Rock that we held, and they didn't give us a satisfactory result. That's a fact. We then take it to the Rock Process, get a new set of rules from our Resource Rock, and supposedly we know they are useful because we can backtest it and see how it works. But if we change the way we act, others have to change as well, and we really can't predict how they are going to change and whether the new rock will bring a satisfactory result, can we?

 

This is similar to, if you are just one of very many in the market, you can possibly get a good estimate on what the fill and the ensuring result from following the system is. But if the market consists of only you and your drama co-dependent, then it is almost impossible to backtest to see how your new set of rules will give. Do you agree?

2. As we apply the Resource Rock into the various situation in our life, invariably it seems that we are looking for a "good" or "better" result. We expect them to "work", or at least give us a better result than what we had with the Medicinal Rock.

 

But then isn't it the same as applying some trading rule to back-testing and expect it to be profitable every single time? It's like trying to have some magic indicator that can call tops and bottoms that works almost every time!

The Rock Process is very awesome as it is a revolutionary idea to me if we can backtest our "life rules" and optimize them. I wonder if it is possible to have a back-testing system that is more holistic, that looks at the overall result (similar to your Bliss function concept) instead of seeing how it works on each individual trade (event)? What do you think?

Many thanks!! I feel very excited. Once again, Merry Christmas!

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

1. In the Rocks Process we "back-test" the new Pro-Active Rock by simulations with others in role playing exercises. 

 

In this way we get a sense of the behavioral modes we are likely to experience with our new relationship management resources.  This is similar to back-testing your emotional relationship with your system.

 

The analog to mathematical back-testing of a system is the dating process, in which you try out and compare variations on a theme so as to assist you in selecting one that fits your personality.

 

2. The Rocks Process does not guarantee to produce a stream of outcomes, such that every one conforms to your notion of "good or better." 

 

With any system, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.  If you stick with a sound system, you are likely to emerge as a net winner after a series of many trials.

 

 

 

A System

 

generates a distribution of outcomes.

 

 

Clip: http://articles.mql4.com/471

 

 

Mon, 24 Dec 2007
 

Merry Christmas

Hey Ed!

I wish you and your family the very best for a happy Christmas and ongoing success in the new year.

Hope that all is fine with you and your family and you enjoy winter.

Thanks for your inspirations and for providing us with FAQ.

Thank you for your encouragement.

Sat, 22 Dec 2007

 

Cancer-Free & Clear Thinking


Hi Ed,

I just want you to know that I wish you a really wonderful Christmas and peace and happiness in the new year. I am cancer-free now and intend to stay that way, will return to work on January 13 on a part time basis for a while, and just look forward to feeling better! It has really been an interesting ride, to say the least.

I enjoy reading the trading website and wish I were a savvy money person, but it has seemed not to be my best skill. Perhaps now that I am well the whole thing will make more sense. What I missed most while ill was my ability to think clearly !

Thank you for sharing your process. Congratulations on your remission. I am accumulating evidence of a correlation between clear thinking and remission of disease.

Fri, 21 Dec 2007

 

Perfectionist

Hi Ed,

Ed Says: "The book is currently in its fourth draft. The video is currently in its second version.

I wonder if you have an issue with perfectionism.

Perhaps I am also seeing my own reflection.

Kindest regards and Happy Holidays to you and your family.

The book and video both deal with sticking to the system - and experiencing feelings rather than medicating them with drama and with substances, including food.

 

I am currently engaging a system to get my body into a healthy weight zone.

 

When I demonstrate some mastery of my own process in this area I may feel more competent to advise others.

 

 

 

Body Mass Index chart

 

Clip: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_mass_index

Thu, 20 Dec 2007

 

Personal Growth Organization


Ed,

 

If you and the 'Trading Tribe' are interested in personal growth and development, I suggest you check out [website]. I'm a former CBOE trader and I've been involved with this organization for the past 9 years. I think you'll find it very worthwhile. Thanks for your time and consideration.

FAQ does not endorse people or commercial products. See ground rules.  I am happy to publish an account of your own process.

 

Thu, 20 Dec 2007

 

Tribe in Fifth Year


Hi Ed,

Our Tribe is now in its fifth year. In this time, I have provided and received a vast amount of support from a diverse group of fascinating people from around the world. I have learned so much, yet I know so little. I find the work as a leader to be deeply gratifying as I witness people realizing their trading goals or truly realizing that trading is not for them. More importantly I get to feel a part of their success as parents, spouses and friends.

The work that we do is not magic and it is not without risk. However, there is no doubt in my mind that a functional Tribe can move anyone further than they could possibly manage themselves.

Thanks and Merry Christmas Ed.

Congratulations on your sticking with the system and with trading support for growth with others.

 

 

Thu, 20 Dec 2007

 

Santa Sings White Christmas

 

Ed,

I couldn't resist forwarding this - Merry Christmas and Enjoy!!

http://www.thecompassgroup.biz/merryxmas.swf 

Thank you for the link.

Thu, 20 Dec 2007 18:09:50 -0800 (PST)
 

Counter Trend Strategies: A Chance to be Right

 

Ed,


Ed Says: Thank you for sharing your process. You might consider if you are getting what you want, namely: a chance to be right, at any cost.

Yes! You're right. That's part of the game: having a chance to and thrilling to be right for calling and / or profiting out of a move. That's the fun of discretionary trading.

 

There is something intuitive and artistic about it such as observing the ebb and flow of market waves and trying to take a ride sometimes. Nowadays, though, I am much more technical in my approach. I calculate the risks involved. I look to trade probabilities. I look for the meaningful move. I know there is nothing to predict.

In a sense, I realize that in order to be profitable in the long run I have to be a lot more systematic and "trend following" even when trading discretionarily. In many aspects, I realize it was unwise to take this last trade with the willingness to lose it all if I am proved to be wrong.

With regard to this trade I took there is one more alluring feature that enticed me to take it: the options were quite cheap when compared to the American counterparts as there is a market maker launching the options and guaranteeing the liquidity (they will buy them back at current market value).

Whatever, I also find it rather intriguing how sometimes in the midst of dramas like this I am able to experience some feelings which are not related to trading specifically.

 

Yesterday I emoted a lot about some relationships issues and I am feeling a lot better now. So I understand that the tendency of "going against the trend" and "going against my feelings" can be one and the same thing.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

February 2008 Gold Futures

 

Major Up-Trends

give heroic top-pickers

 

many opportunities

 

to try to be right.

 

Thu, 20 Dec 2007

 

Into the Weeds


Hi Ed,

Happy Holidays my dear friend.

I'm flying this week checking out a new hire on the 737. What a chore it is training a new hire on the line. Sometimes I feel like I'm solo.Talk about high risk with limited reward, not a good place to be.

At Critical Mach, there is NO stability on the wing. Curvature on the top of the wing MUST exist to provide a fluid and stable airflow on top of the wing to counter the lift forces being generated from below the wing. In order for a plane to fly, the airflow over the top and bottom of the wing has to be a fluid undisturbed process. When Critical Mach (the speed of the air traveling over the top of the wing and NOT the aircraft speed) is reached, all the air over the wing becomes disrupted and at that point the plane begins to shutter and the wing begins to lose aerodynamic structure.

I disagree with the contributor who flies the F-16. Contrary to Denny, I still believe and agree with your theory that angle of attack is what causes planes to fly. Ask him the next time he flies at takeoff to accelerate as fast as he can and at rotation speed DO NOT pull back on the stick (which lowers the leading edge of the elevator thus lifting the nose of the aircraft up) and see what happens.

 

I will tell you what will happen, he and his plane will drive straight ahead right off the end of the runway into the weeds.

OK.

 

 

View From F-16 Cockpit

 

 

 

View from F-16 Cockpit

 

after attempting takeoff

without pulling back

on the stick.

 

 

Clips:

 

http://www.militaryfactory.com/

cockpits/f-16_cockpit.asp

 

http://www.organicgardening.com/

images/ogb_weeds.jpg

Thu, 20 Dec 2007

 

Spins and Stalls

Mr. Seykota,

I liked the post about spins and stalls, as well as the analogy to trading. I used to tell my students it's easy to Monday Morning Quarterback a pilot who crashed his airplane by stalling close to the ground.

 

In reality it would be very difficult to relax back pressure (sacrifice altitude for airspeed) and let the plane fly out of the stall, if you were close to the ground. Hopefully through experience you avoid getting into situations which force you to use your counter-intuitive training.

I like the picture of the Tornado. In 3rd generation fighters it is difficult to get into accelerated stalls. The flight control system is designed to avoid stalls. If you pull straight back on the stick the FLCS will limit stab deflection to prevent Over-G, etc. In aircraft with auto throttles, the A/T system will kick in to prevent low speed stalls.

Per your post, I disagree. Greater speed with constant density does produce lower pressure.


Hope this is a contribution and not a distraction. I still find this stuff very interesting.

Greater speed with constant density does not necessarily produce lower pressure.

 

Get a large jar and seal the lid, with plenty of air inside. You might also include a pressure gauge. Take it on  a ride with you in a 3-rd generation fighter.  Let me know if you observe any change in pressure in the jar as you "speed up" it's velocity.  Since the volume and mass are constant, density stays constant as well.

 

 

Simple Devices

 

can demonstrate

fundamental principles.

 

Clip: http://www.sha.org/bottle/Typing/food/

modernolivejar.jpg

Wed, 19 Dec 2007

 

Santa Claus is Coming to Town


Hello Ed,

I hear this lyric and think that its no wonder so many have trouble crying or otherwise expressing sadness, myself included.

You better watch out.
You better not cry.
You better not pout.
I'm telling you why.
Santa Claus is coming to town.

Lucky for me, I cry on the hot seat (a first for me) at our Tribe's most recent meeting. No thanks to Santa Claus, but many thanks to you, Ed!

Thanks as always for all of your work.

Happy Holidays!

Thank you for sharing your process and for your insight about the "better not show your feelings" song.

 

 

 

Santa's Gonna Find Out

who's naughty and nice

 

Clip: http://www.manbottle.com/

picture_library/santa_s_little_helpers

Wed, 19 Dec 2007

 

Economist Cover from Nov 29th, 2007

see previous

 

Ed,

 

Short term Bottom?

 

 


 

I notice the Dollar Index is a couple cents higher since the appearance of that graphic.

 

 

 

March Dollar Index Futures

 

The red circle

indicates the appearance

of the Economist graphic.

 

Wed, 19 Dec 2007

 

Visit to Incline Village Tribe

Examining Discretionary Trading


Dear Ed:

I trust all is well. I thank you for allowing me to attend the IVTT meeting. It is an incredible experience. I see a slightly different way the meeting is conducted. I like it and will discuss this format with my local tribe members.

I take the hot seat and my issue is taking discretionary trades and not following my system.

 

You do not see any problem because I have two systems and I am following both. I feel that the discretionary system is my mind's creation that I do not want to own it. It is a detriment to my right livelihood as it takes away profits from the mechanical trading system.

You turn the meeting over to another process manager to give him some more experience while you oversee and coach the entire process.

 

He asks me how it feels when I take discretionary trades and to feel those feeling in the now.

 

I feel nervous all over my body. I start to rub my legs and get relentless validation from the receivers to do more of that.

 

I tighten my fists, close my eyes. You play the drum and other members join in the drum beating. As the drum beating intensifies, the process manager encourages me to tighten my fists and squint my eyes to the maximum and enjoy the feeling.

 

At the release point the drums stop beating and I find myself enjoying the feeling that comes with discretionary trading.

 

I smile a lot along the way and the receivers encourage me to keep smiling and feel joyous. At some point the process manager asks if I am ready for a checkout. I respond negatively to that and am adamant to find the cause of this discretionary trading pattern.

 

You explain to me that I am trying to invoke the causal model and TTP is more about experiencing feelings, enjoying them and finding their positive intentions.

I agree to trade only my mechanical system and give up discretionary trading altogether. I intend to accomplish this by designating a few traders who I will call when the feeling to take discretionary trades arises and they can talk me out of this temporary feeling. One person who follows the same system as I do has already volunteered to help.

I thank all present at the meeting for supporting me. A special thanks to the process manager for doing such an excellent job managing my hot seat.

Ed the icing on the cake that evening are the hugs I get from you and the other Tribe members before I leave. I feel really wanted at the meeting.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

Anxiety

 

Feelings (such as anxiety) in k-nots

tend to entrain drama (such as nervous trading)

to justify experiencing the feelings.

 

Clip: http://www.mixhealth.com/

Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Typo


Dear Chief Ed,

Telling you about this typo is the least I can do to help in maintaining the integrity of your site.

It is my firm conviction that this resource is the finest available for traders and others, and it must survive all of us. To that extent I feel a strong sense of kinship and in a humble and anonymous way, a part of evolving history.

Isn't that the way it was intended ?

Thank you for inviting us along in this most fascinating journey - into ourselves, and for making all the difference to our lives.

Sincerely,

Thank you for the catch.

Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Magnetism, Electricity, and Cold Copper Rings


Ed,


Here is a cool site.

http://web.mit.edu/jbelcher/www/anim.html#Faraday 

Thank you for the URL.

Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Lucky Guesses and Missing FAQ's

see: Dec 16, 2007


Ed says, "You might consider taking your feelings about <finding reasons in the past> to Tribe.

True, I might be finding reasons in the past NOW.

In a way, when we get AHA's / Flashbacks on the hot seat, or going back to a childhood experience to experience the old rock and then replacing with a new rock, they all involve going back to the past somehow NOW?

In Tribe, we keep the sender in the now while he experiences feelings and gains insights.

 

Your wish, to find a historical article, is likely not part of a Tribe process.

Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Wing Curvature


Hi Ed,

I agree with your Radial momentum theory because without angle of attack, the wing would never lift, regardless of curvature.

 

However, the curvature on top the wing must exist because if it was not there the airflow over the wing would exceed critical mach and the stability would be lost.

 

Drive 80 MPH and put your hand out the window and rotate the the trailing edge up and down. At some point your hand flies out of control. Vector analysis and F=ma can explain airplane lift theory better than Bernoulli.

 

However greater speed with constant density does produce lower pressure.

Angle of attack explains your hand flying up.

 

I do not follow your "critical mach" theory or your "greater speed" theory.

 

For example, if you blow up a balloon and put it in the back seat of your car and drive really fast, the balloon, contrary to your claim, does not contract.

 

 

 

The Faster Mr. Balloon Dog Runs

 

the smaller he gets.

 

Clip: http://artmarketinsider.com/page/2/

Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Mon, 17 Dec 2007

 

Flying and Turning


Hi Ed,

When I fly a Jet Fighter, Fred takes over after awhile, just like with bicycles and bubblegum, and automates much of the process, but there are some maneuvers that are counter intuitive, and it takes a little self-talk to help Fred do what doesn't come naturally.

 

I speak of stalls and spins specifically, which require me to let the nose of the airplane point even more steeply to the ground than it already is in a stall or spin state, but every fiber in my being tells me to pull the nose back to level.

 

I DO pull the nose back to level once the stall / spin is broken, but only after doing the counter intuitive move. It's like finding the "uncle" point in a TTP process, then pushing further into the feeling in order to emerge on the other side at the zero point: uncomfortable at the time, but necessary for a successful mission.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

I wonder if you see a similarity between making it through a stall or a spin and making it through a stock reaction or a drawdown.

 


A Tornado Fighter Bomber

 

pulls up, while moving at high speed,

and enters a transient high-speed stall.

 

Radial Momentum results in

a drop in air pressure,

 a drop in air temperature

and water vapor condensation.

 

In the case of the Tornado,

the swing wings automatically move

to adjust for the stall.

 

 

Clip: http://www.highgallery.com/UniquePhotos/

UniqueAircraftPhotos/unique-TornadoStall.jpg

Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Little Glass Shack

 

Ed,

 

You might enjoy this.



 


This is a public toilet in Houston


Now that you've seen the outside,

take a look at the inside view ...



 

It's made entirely of one-way glass!

No one can see you from the outside,

but when you are inside

it's like sitting in a clear glass box.
 

Now would you use it?
 

I doubt this device exists - except as a joke.

 

"One way" glass enables the person in the darker area to view the one in the brighter area.

 

At night, with a light on in the shack, the passers by can see the inhabitant.

Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Wants Money Management


Ed,

 

My direct question would be, would you manage what little money I have left to risk?

 

But I doubt you would even respond to that.

I thought I was a trader, or at least could become a good part time trader by working hard. I worked long hours in a job that I hated and believed that it was the source of my frustration.

 

It took me many years to make a career change to a great new job that affords me a lot more free time to pursue the things that I enjoy. It has improved my life in all aspects with the exception of managing money.

 

I have come to the conclusion that I donít even know what I donít know, any amount of time spent training myself to trade results in my same self-sabotage and in the end, I know you would say that I am getting what I want out of the markets.

 

I have attempted to get closer to the true root source of my anguish and believe that there is some type of guilt that keeps me from reaching a higher capacity but I am either too frightened, embarrassed or proud to dig deeper and on the surface I feel that I am truly a normal person. This does not help me to understand myself.

I am fortunate that I have built the rest of my life on a solid foundation, I have an incredible family and we live in a vastly rewarding rural mountain town. My wife has been more than understanding and even though I wasted years of our lives being a complete Jackass, coming home grumpy and tired from my crappy job, she accepts & loves me and she even stood by me while I lost all of our money chasing my dreams.

To stop trading makes me feel like I am quitter Ė but either way it is killing me. I want to start over but I donít know how to begin.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <doubt, anguish, guilt, fear and embarrassment> to Tribe.

 

Whether you trade for yourself or through a broker, advisor or manager, you may wind up entraining drama in your trading account.

Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Cute Ad


Ed,

 

You might like this ad.



http://www.ffk-wilkinson.com:80/

The ad suggests winning the battle with kids.

 

In TTP we suggest parents and children support each other so everyone advances.

Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Meditation

 

Ed,



You might like this instruction on meditation:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=mZP0Hhcov8c&mode=related&search=

The video advocates quieting the body and mind and joining the breath.

 

In TTP we advocate encouraging the mind and body to do whatever they wish to do, including becoming quite active.

Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2007

 

Links

 

Hi, Ed

I donít really have an issue with your website, but I notice a number of links displayed in the Navigation Area.

 

Over the past year I have made the discovery that there seem to be a total of 14 links, and I have just now clicked all of them, and they work fine, but I wondered at first if there was a master site map that I had missed, or if some pages did not contain all the links just because thatís the way things came together during the assembly process.

 

Curiously, none of the pages has a link back to the Home Page. Iím okay with this - itís just an observation.
 

Thank you for the feedback.

 

I use MS FrontPage.

 

When I save / publish a page, it saves the current version of the header information in the area at the top of the page. 

 

Some early pages show early versions of the header.

 

I can update the header by editing and re-saving pages.

 

Let me know if you wish to have the latest header on any specific pages.

Tue, 18 Dec 2007


Goes Against the Trend

See previous: Great Mistake



Ed Says: You might consider taking your feelings about <going against the trend> to Tribe.

Whereas such principle is clear to me with regard to mechanical / computerized trading, I have been trying to incorporate it also to a discretionary approach.

My local market has a lot of restrictions to speculation (hence the relative lack of liquidity) and I am allowed to trade only on the short side, as if hedging by buying options (puts).

 

In such a case, i.e., trading discretionarily, I am inclined to track price objectives and momentum in longer time frames and then wait for a trend signal, such as a reversal, in the shorter time frame.

 

In the setup I was following I was not patient enough to wait either for the long term objective being attained or for a clear trend reversal signal in the short term.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider if you are getting what you want, namely: a chance to be right, at any cost.

Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007

 

Program Efficiency

see Market Efficiency, below


Is the new Language INtegrated Query feature found in C#3.5 important to traders using this language? If so, why so and if not, why not?

Importance depends on your notion of what you think the program "should" do.

 

Mon, 17 Dec 2007

 

Market Efficiency

Chief Ed,

Are equity markets like the NYSE and NASDAQ efficient in terms of pricing individual issues?

 

Are markets efficient in the "short run" (90 days) , the medium term (say, 24 months), the long run (36 or more months) ?

If markets are efficient at pricing, what role do traders play in the process?

Efficiency depends on your notion of what you think the markets "should" do.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <being in control / letting your feelings out> to Tribe.

 

 

 

Gasoline-Efficient Car

 

Clip: http://www.freakingnews.com/

News-in-Pictures-May-8-May-14-Pictures---1020.asp

Mon, 17 Dec 2007

 

Belief Systems

Dear Ed:

Happy Holidays, and thank you again for your work.

Intentions = Results

Could it be that Intentions are created by our belief system? That our belief system creates a "blueprint" that we follow without knowing? This idea is [consistent with] my experience.

Although I earn significant amounts of money on Wall Street I am not good at holding on to money.

 

My savings are invested in Money Markets instruments, I give money away and as I earn more money I increase my spending to a new level. The end result is that I still work to pay the bills.

I have several non-supportive beliefs:

1) I think children of rich families get spoiled.
2) I think that money will come and go. (This was my experience growing up)
3) I'm a good giver but not a good receiver, etc

Now I change my beliefs and I retain more money. The issue disappears.

A friend has a similar experience. He makes significant amount working with investments. He and his wife save a lot. He makes one investment that wipes out most of his savings. BIG AHA, we review his belief system about money and realize that he has many beliefs that are unsupportive about money.

It seems that he creates a situation that fits his belief system.

What do you think?

Belief systems that appear as logical mental constructs rarely account for drama.

 

Changing your "thinking" may not change your gut reactions.

 

K-nots that appear as body feelings judging other feelings - and Rocks that contain automatic responses to emotions can and do account for drama.

 

In Tribe, we open up some of the body locations where we store our gut responses and we supplement medicinal responses with pro-active ones right into the same locations.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <losing control and getting into your feelings> to Tribe.

 

 

 

Smokers

 

spend a lot of time

thinking about quitting.

 

The same goes for alcoholics

and day-traders.

 

 

Clip: http://www.uoguelph.ca/research/news/

articles/2006/November/smoking.shtml

Sun, 16 Dec 2007

 

A Great Mistake, Again

 

Ed,

 

Just recently I have made another great trading mistake. I had been watching the soybeans market when I noticed that there was a bearish divergence between prices and the MACD in the daily chart.

 

I had also noticed on the monthly chart that November was unable to close above the key 1100 level (1988 high). Then on December the 3rd I bought some put options for the May contract in the local market.

 

I spent about USD 3500 to buy the options. I was aware that the market could instead rally on a runaway move to test the 73's all time high of 1290. I was also aware that the local market where I bought the options is characterized by low liquidity.

 

So I was willing to risk the trade until the options get expired on March 14. Well, so far the divergence proved to be a failed signal and the market seems to be on a runaway move, some calling and I myself afraid that the ceiling is around 1400.

Even though the risk was rather "calculated", every tick the market moves up I am reminded of my own fallibility and I have to deal with some feelings which from time to time take away my inner peace as I try to experience the positive intention of throwing away in the waste basket 3500 bucks.

 

I bet 1/3 of my savings. Next time I feel compelled to trade I think I should bet less, say, only 10%. Always learning - the hard way.

Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider taking your feelings about <going against the trend> to Tribe.

Sun, 16 Dec 2007

 

Lucky Guesses

and Missing FAQ from Dec 1, 2007

Hi Ed,

Thanks for the reply. The thing is, the question is precisely what I do not have.

Here's the whole story: I sent you a question back in June 10, 2004, and for whatever reason, you notice something and suggest to me if I might check with my family about my own childbirth. You make a "lucky guess" (as you call it) that there may be some complications at birth. And yes, I am Cesarean born and I have a tendency of not able to stick to things.

 

So as I am investigating my own childbirth now, I'd like to gather as much info as I can, including what the question was that gives you the hint to make the "lucky guess."

Unfortunately although not necessarily surprising, you make another "lucky guess" (Sept 16 / 17, Financial Freedom). I just lost a large chunk of my savings through an investment manager friend, a person whom I look up to and trust to have the skills and the kind of emotional support to handle my money.

 

I understand the volatility but was hoping to invest with him for the long haul, hopefully decades, and I was shocked to know that he just blew up. I don't blame him. After all, it is me who chose to invest with him, and I need to take responsibility and consequence of my action. On the contrary, I want to support him as much as I can to go through this tough period.

 

But I can't help but wonder, maybe as your "lucky guess", I just need to have this kind of drama to justify my deep desire to be "financially free." I went through several hot seats to take me through all the immense sad / frustrating / guilt feeling. Now I am curious and want to learn more. It seems that you can see me better and more clearer than I can see myself.

I try to dig up all my notes on FAQ. Throughout these years I have been taking careful notes on the FAQ. I feel I learn a lot and I have a great sense of gratitude.

 

I've learned about trends, about trading, about service to others, about government, about feelings, about nature, about supporting others from you.

 

However, I also notice quite a number of FAQs have disappeared. I know it because I can see from my notes but I can no longer find the entry on the website.

 

The childbirth entry (June 10th) is one, and you also once replied to me (around that same time, via FAQ) that "You might have some feelings about wanting to know who people really are - perhaps even yourself."

 

Again, I can no longer find the entry on the website, and not knowing what is in my question that leads you to that "lucky guess" (seems to be right on target again). I never ask you to revise or delete my submission, so I am surprised and disappointed that it is no longer on the website.

Ed, that's why I am asking, if you still have those previous entries available from me (from mid June, 2004, and the childbirth one is 6/10/04), I'd greatly appreciate if you can please repost them. As I say, you seem to be able to see through me clearly, and I wonder if you can please tell me further of what you see. Many, many, many, many thanks!!

You might consider taking your feelings about <finding reasons in the past> to Tribe.

 

 

Yep, It's Still Now

 

Clip: http://blog.longnow.org/2007/07/

Sun, 16 Dec 2007

 

Reincarnation

see previous


Hi Ed,


FAQ, May 14, 2007, Communicating with the Dead, Ed says, "A drop of water falls into a shallow elliptical pool at one of the foci. The other focus "reincarnates" a similar drop."


This is quite intriguing and I am curious if you can expand more.

 

Do you mean that when someone thinks of something, through some under-Fred network, someone elsewhere also comes to that conclusion - such as the discovery of calculus by Newton and Leibniz ?

You might consider taking your feelings about <magic> to Tribe.

 

 

 

Reintarnation

 

is the practice

by which bluegrass tunes

suddenly appear all over the place

after many years of dormancy.

 

 

Clip: http://www.virb.com/groups/08114786

Sun, 16 Dec 2007

 

Anger Management

Hi Ed!

My anger seems to get to me when my child is stubborn. I feel like wanting to hit things, luckily not him. I feel the rage hitting me in half a second and I'm not ready to avoid letting it get to me. I clench my teeth, tighten my arm and hand, feel a real tense in my stomach and feels like struck by lightning in my head.

 

I have spoken about this in the tribe one month ago and it calmed down. Now it's back on again. I tell my little boy of 1.5 years how upset I get and that I'm sorry for it.

 

He doesn't understand the words but definitely my forms. It feels better. A couple of days ago I put on Linking Park on full volume and felt like a teenager, hiding to stop the pain (medicinal rock).

I spoke to a father of four grown up children (they seems to be happy about their childhood). He said that you have to show your child both love and anger. Life is tough and it won't do them any good to be raised without knowing what is right and wrong. I agree but it doesn't feel good when my reactions seems a little uncontrollable.

 

You have earlier mentioned that I should take my need to be in control to my tribe. I have actually forgotten that. Maybe that will give me any insight.

A long time ago I remember that you mentioned to a parent (as I remember it) that he should question why he put up an expensive vase when his children were playing near it.

 

Was it to have a reason to be angry when / if they broke it. I have thought about that regarding giving dinner to my baby boy when he is out of mood.

 

He just throws everything on the floor in a split second. Sometimes I just pick the things up and accept that he's not hungry. Other times I might put the plate back up and tell him to not put the food on the floor. Of course it just repeats and I get irritated.

 

I get what I want but I don't know I want it. I think my intention is that he needs to eat more so I got to give him another chance, but to be honest I know that it wont matter what I put in front of him. It will end up on the floor anyway. My view is that if he throws the food on the floor he gets no more, but I'm not consistent of applying that.

What do I want to say? I want to say that it feels bad to get dis-proportionally angry at my own child for stupid reasons. I want to be able to steer myself in every moment, but sometimes I'm imploding.

 

I send an image of a very controlled and most of the part is. I'm not surprised that people sometimes do awful stuff (like picking up a gun and shooting people) because sometimes I get so angry on small stuff even though I have reached so many of the things I think I want. I mean - I'm not desperate.

 

I have a limit so nothing awful like that will happen but there are times when I really wish someone would try to rob me or hit me. Then I can put all my rage on that person.

 

It's strange that I think so because that is not good "life management" - analogy to money management. I would never bet everything on one trade, but still sometimes it seems I'm willing to bet my whole life on one incident. Well, feelings are not the same as acts.

I hope I get some peace from these unwanted feelings by accepting them, writing about them and bringing them up in the tribe.

Thanks for listening.

Thank you for sharing your process - and for your willingness to address a core issue that directly involves the well-being of your child.

 

Anger typically arises in response to a threat to self preservation and /or a perception to injustice.

 

Many philosophies consider anger to be undesirable or even sinful. Your use of the phrase   "unwanted feelings" is consistent with such views.

 

In TTP we hold all emotions have a positive intention.

 

Your use of the word, "should," and the phrase "out of mood" are consistent with a world view of controlling others.

 

Your wish to receive unjust treatment so you can experience anger is consistent with the theory of Fred setting up drama for you so you can experience feelings in k-nots.

 

You may be running this racket with your son via the food-on-the-floor game.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <anger and controlling others> to Tribe.

 





The Anger of Achilles

by Giovanni Battista Tiepolo

 

In this scene from Homer's Iliad,

the angry Achilles is about to draw his sword

to attack Agamemnon.

The goddess Athena suddenly appears

to stop Achilles by gripping him by the hair

and telling him to restrain his anger.

 

 

Clip and Information:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anger