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May 11 - 20, 2007

 

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Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Sun, 20 May 2007

 

Silver Keyboard


Dear Ed,

I had my first hot seat experience.

We do snapshots on right livelihood. I see me in a red tracksuit with a silver keyboard. The picture is not very clear. It's more like silver keyboard on the right side, red tracksuit on the left side. I feel attracted to the right side, the silver is shimmering and gleaming.

A tribe member asks me about the red on the right side: what is it? Life? I feel a pain. I realize that my hands are making movements. It's enjoyable.

We break off because my train is about leaving in some minutes.

This is to note that I am really astonished that:

(1) The process is enjoyable.

(2) I feel such a relief during the process even without release and zero-point.

(3) Sending and receiving seems to work automatically and naturally. (Before I had sleepless nights about producing "forms." What "forms"?!?!?)

(4) I just note the pain as being there but it is so "dimmed down" that I can take it easily and actually enjoy it. Some sort of Fred hypnotizes CM? I remember the picture of the hypnotized rabbit in FAQ. LAUGHTER.

Next day I experience myself as a little bit more outgoing and non-critical which adds to the positive experience.


PS: In this mail I don't talk about the turmoil that seems to accompany any endeavor of k-notty people. LAUGHTER.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

Silver Keyboard

 

Encouraging the Sender

to develop feelings about images

into forms.

 

can help identify

k-nots and rocks.

 

 

Clip: http://www.artandallthatjazz.com/Jessica_Felix/

Musical_Jewelry_Designs/KR.shtml

Sun, 20 May 2007

 

Business Before Trading


Ed,

 

I hope life is good for you now. I am “swamped” in the water business. It is a good thing, because the swamp is limited to a few species. That is, I am heavy into a few clients and I like these clients. I understand this is not necessarily the best business model, but it is very appropriate for me right now. I like avoiding the politics and ineptitude that is rampant in the larger water “business”.

I wish for more time to work on a trading system / business. Currently, I am finishing up a “back office” system that tracks orders, trades, monitors open positions / risk and delivers status / performance reports. At this point, I believe that taking care of the business of trading is more important than the particular trading strategy. I intend to finish this and then work on a few strategy ideas that I have.

I still want to flush out an idea that I have. It regards chance. I do not have all the vocabulary or formulas to model or quantify this.

 

Ephemerally, it goes like this: When working with trend following systems, the trader is at the mercy of the trend makers. Trends of all types occur very frequently. But, only some of these trends can be traded. And, only some of these tradable trends will occur in the markets the trader is trading. This is the “opportunity field." It is not continuous, but intermittent.

 

The continuity and frequency of the opportunity field are reflective of the frequency of a trading system and the volatility characteristics of the underlying markets. If the trading system is a 20-bar moving average of a yearly chart, then the system maybe has the chance to enter and exit once in a lifetime. If the market opportunity materializes in this trader’s lifetime, then the 20-year moving average system looks like a good system.

 

The trader goes to his grave content knowing in his will his family members are well taken care of. Taken to a different extreme, if a futures market routinely moved large amounts in serially linked V shapes, the frequency of the wave would allow a trading system to be matched up to it and a large number of entries and exits transacted. The opportunity field is frequent and perfectly predictable. My son can do it and think he is a genius.

Looking at commodity trend following firm’s returns, it seems trend following commodities is a multi-year opportunity field. If I start a trading fund and have a bad year, it does not mean the system is bad. It means the market opportunity over this year was bad, or the system is a bad system. Because most people do not have the multi-year commitment to see if their system is good or bad, the role of chance is paramount in the success of many traders, especially the new beginners or young firms. If they go into business and the opportunity field presents itself, they can move forward thinking they are doing a great job and have the holy grail. If they happen to start a few years earlier or later, the same trading systems may look like bunk, and they die a premature death. Same systems, different results. The opportunity field is the real winner and loser not the trader nor the system. Chance is king.

I would like to work this up with real math / statistics, but it hasn’t come to me yet. Perhaps it will.

I do know a couple of things. One is I am very long term in my trading endeavors. I am very independent, self-reliant, competitive, and resourceful. Thinking about trading provides me an intellectual outlet. I find I must exercise this outlet somewhere and trading seems to fit. I have only made discretionary trades in my life, but they are based on feelings and perceptions regarding social tendencies, not financial fundamentals.

 

I enjoy sensing and riding the waves and I am more successful then I ever dreamed.

The other thing I know, is how long term I am.

I am living the rest of my life without cancer.

I feel this everyday and I feel this in a very sure way.

I am rarely wrong when I have this type of surety of feeling.

What is amazing is how intent and how long term I must be in this endeavor.

Trading is easy / trivial.

I sincerely thank you.


p.s. I would like to have lunch anytime. You have an open sailing trip invitation. You could bring a friend and a banjo if you like!

OK, so water you wading for.

Sun, 20 May 2007


Whittling

see previous: May 14: Support


Ed,

Regarding my e-mail to you 05/14/07

The specific support I want is just some outside perspective like you give me when I contact you. Thanks for that.

I have been trading my own account for 21 years now and I have whittled my process down to a only a handful of simple trading rules that I follow. When I trade I do not have much stress and I take accountability very well as long as I follow my rules. I take accountability very well at my job also.

I am always supporting the traders since my last job (11 years) and now. I am a trader. It is my time now.

Isn't that funny I just realized that I asked you for support and I have been SUPPORTING other traders for all this time and am back at a job where I am SUPPORTING them again!

This is the first time I ever have asked for specifically support and I think that a shift has just happened but I don't know what it is yet?

I would like to come to a Incline Village Tribe meeting soon and get a refresher.

OK.

 

You might notice how you feel about using a build-em-up term to describe your trading.

 

 

 

Whittling

 

tends to make things smaller.

 

 

 

Clip: http://soulemama.typepad.com/

soulemama/images/wood1_1.jpg

 

Sun, 20 May 2007

The Art of War and Trading

Dear Ed,

Master Sun said:

A rushing torrent
Carries boulders
On it’s flood;
Such is the energy
Of it’s momentum.

A swooping falcon
Breaks the back
Of it’s prey;
Such is the precision
Of it’s timing.


The Skilful Trader must use both

the Torrent and the Falcon.

Which way do you trade? Ask the Torrent.

When do you enter? Ask the Falcon.

Your descriptions about your relationships tends to manifest.  You might notice your feelings about war.

 

You might consider noticing your feelings about describing trading in alternate ways, say, as a discipline, a dance. a form of expressing your integrity ...

 

Sat, 19 May 2007

 

Seeking Advice
 

Dear Mr. Seykota

I work as a programmer for almost 10 years and find interest in the stock market for the last 2 years.
Since my programming skills are pretty good I found it only natural to build computerized trading systems.
After trading the US stock market half a year ago for few months, and losing some money I have decided to take a break and analyze what went wrong.

 

I'm just now in my second phase in the stock market, but this time I take the whole thing more seriously. Meaning investing a lot of time improving my system, reading lots of books and keeping notes, back testing, running results in Monte Carlo simulation etc.


I wanted to ask for your help to understand the meaning of the phrase: "a system that work in different markets". For example, if I build random stock list out of the NASDAQ stock list, say 4 lists which contains 300 stocks each. Then I run my system on these list and get decent results. Would you consider this to be a robust system or do I need to try it on markets other than the US?

FAQ does not tell people what they should do - or what they need to do.  See ground rules. 

 

Meaning is subjective and may well depend upon your feelings and intentions.

 

The meanings of the words {system; work; different; market; robust; decent} may vary widely.

 

 

 

Preparing for a Row-Bust Decent

Over the Falls

 

You row and sometimes

you wind up, well, busted.

 

 

 

A Decent Row-Bust 

Toning Exercise

 

You row and sometimes

you wind up well busted.

 

Clips:

 

http://www.s88032431.onlinehome.us/

photos/James%20Cornett%20runs%20triple%20

drop%20Little%20Clear%20Creek%20-%20

ducky%20fisrt%20decent!.jpg

 

http://www.fitness-health.co.uk/

images/rowing-workout.jpg

Sat, 19 May 2007

 

Commission-Free Day Trading
see previous: May 15: Fast Trend Following

Thanks so much for answering my question, I admire your patience in answering all our FAQ questions! Must be the result of stress free, worry free trading!

I would like to add details about my question because it might have been misunderstood?

See: My Previous Question ...

My Rephrased Question is ...

Do you think trend following can also be applied intra day trading? I'm not paying commissions because I'm using a Direct Access Broker ... I will even receive commission if I provide liquidity (Limit orders). So trading commission will have no effect on my performance. I was just wondering if trending actions are as "ride-able" and reliable intraday as with a longer time frame such as yearly. I'm wondering because intraday movements might be easier to manipulate than a yearly move.


Thanks! I wish you have a good day!

You are likely paying virtual commissions in the forms of:

1. Getting some skid on your stop order fills.

 

2. Getting no fill on your limit orders until the price penetrates a bit beyond your price.

Of course, your broker might be filling your orders absolutely free and relying on his staff and the electric company to pay his salary.

 

When you figure in your actual transaction costs, high-frequency trading tends to generate more excitement than profit.

 

 

 

Riding Fast and Free

 

can get you a lot of excitement

 

and souvenir skid marks.

 

 

Clip: http://www.fwditon.com/attachments/

2006/10/26/116191736967_skidMarks.jpg

Sat, 19 May 2007

 

Cochin Tribe


Hi,


I am attaching the TTID for Cochin.

 

 

Welcome !

 

Cochin

 

India

 

Thu, 17 May 2007

 

The News From Foggy Mountain

Hi Ed!

I think you might enjoy this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icMTVV5Lwaw

Earl Rules !

 

 

Earl Scruggs

 

Clip: shorock.com/oibf/2003/scruggs.html

Thu, 17 May 2007


Horse Dancing

This horse gives me goose bumps! It is, like the man says, brilliant!

If you like horses, (even if you don't) you will love this clip. This video is of Andreas Helgstrand and his 9 year-old mare, Matinee, at the World Equestrian Games. It is the Musical Freestyle Dressage competition, and they pretty much wiped the floor with everyone. Turn up the sound and watch this mare dance ...

http://beboframe.com/FlashFrame.jsp?Size=S&FlashBoxId=3309347442

I suspect the rider and horse communicate feelings in very direct ways.

Thu, 17 May 2007


The Secret
 

Ed Says: The Secret isn't what you think, it's what you feel. The movie and the book appear somewhat sparse on how to implement the secret. In TTP we use the Rocks Process to reprogram our "radiators" so we radiate an intention that attracts what we want.

Yes. I also noticed that. Somewhere in the middle they touch on the subject. They admit that it's impossible to monitor all of one's thoughts. So they encourage the audience to monitor their feelings and guide themselves through experiences that make them feel good.

I like the straightforward way in how they "tell" the "secret". Yet I agree with you that both the book and the movie are somehow sparse on how to implement the secret. And finding ways to effectively implement it seems to be, on a large part, what ancient traditional religious or even some western secret societies have been doing over the centuries.

I have also found a book by [Author] on the Law of Attraction and his way of how to implement it. He seems to have some NLP background and is using it in his work. In his book he works on the concepts of opposition and clarity with regard to one's goals. He also focuses on the three steps ("ask", "believe" and "receive"), using feelings as a measure of effective, positive attitude or "vibration".

As I can tell you out of my experience, I do not doubt "The Secret", that we do become what we think, feel and believe. And I believe I have already been through this with regard to several intentions. Yet I also feel that there some "tricks" or "secrets" which are beyond my understanding.

 

For instance, I know the kind of relationship that I want (or at least consciously I think so). I can also imagine it vividly in my mind. I also know it would be good for me and I believe I can have it if I really want to. At the same time, I am under the impression all of this "goal setting" is going on just on a conscious level and somehow, for some unconscious or unknown reason, I don't really get it or want it.

 

When I am about to succeed I feel some internal (and the corresponding external) strong opposition. I feel as if I unconsciously sabotage all of my efforts and end up into a emotional mess again. I guess I need some inner spiritual or emotional healing I am not able to give myself or, as you like to say, "do it myself".

 

Deep down I can also feel I am actually in emotional want and feel lonely most of the time. Sometimes this deep inner loneliness consumes me ... And that's all.

Some approaches to implementing "the secret" rely on individual goal setting and affirmation to overcome "negative" tendencies.

 

In TTP, we implement right livelihood by group work to embrace and find the positive intentions of all our tendencies.

 

 

 

Loneliness is a Feeling

 

Some personal growth methods

view it as "negative"

and try to medicate it with mantras.

 

In TTP,

we celebrate its positive intention.

 

 

Clip: http://www.depth-soulofmusic.blogspot.com/

Thu, 17 May 2007

 

Cute Site


Hi, Ed. (Hope YOU are reading this.)


It's been a long time... we did language exchange
(Japanese / English) in the summer of 94 in Los Altos Hills - for which, I am forever grateful.


I left the area in 98, now back in Tokyo and was very excited to find you on the Internet. How are you?
Your web site is rather cute though I have no idea what people are talking about there -- just liked your comment on life in general.

Warm regards,

私へ書くことをありがとう。

Thu, 17 May 2007

Associate Progress Report

Dear Ed,

 

We would like your comments on our progress.

 


Parameters/Bet Sizing
Ed states in his Trading Tribe book that a good system has low sensitivity to its own parameters. Perhaps one way of developing a system with such characteristics is to design parameters that are dynamic. As I am mentioning in my most recent progress report, I am reading a book on volatility forecasting. I am interested in learning more about this area because I want to investigate developing dynamic volatility-based parameters. I think that by extending the principles of ATR and using the latest advancements in volatility forecasting, perhaps we can develop a dynamic parameter method. This would allow the system to be more responsive to changes in market volatility.


Statistical Significance Tests
Recently, I am finishing a book on trading system development and testing by [Author]. One of the interesting topics he is discussing in his book is the use of statistical significance testing on trading rules. He defines system performance as annualized daily return on de-trended data. He de-trends historical data by first determining the average daily price change. Next, he subtracts the average daily change from each daily change. De-trending makes the data set have an average daily return of 0. Back-testing non-predictive rules will yield non-positive returns. Aronson is also discussing using Monte Carlo simulations to create return distributions for rules. This allows us to determine the statistical significance of the performance of a particular trading rule or system. We would like to work ... to program these methods into our system, so that we can include statistical methods in our comparison of different trading systems.


Adding commissions, fees, and tax implications
Finally, we would like to make our trading system as realistic as possible. We want to include commissions, exchange fees, and perhaps even tax implications into the performance of our trading system. Obviously, comparing the performance of an active trading system with a buy & hold strategy without taking into account the additional costs of implementing an active system is not going to give us an accurate comparison.

We appreciate any feedback on these topics. We are already learning so much from the exercises Ed has provided on his website. We are very eager to see what is coming next.

If you have definite rules, you have a set of constant parameters; the things you are call dynamic parameters are your system variables.

 

If you do not have definite rules, you have no formal system at all.

 

Note, the five-day ATR is a system variable; it varies with volatility.  The number, five, is the constant parameter.

 

If you make the constant number, five, a variable, N, then N becomes another system variable and the function that generates N has a constant parameter somewhere.

 

Volatility, trends, draw-downs and whipsaws are all part of the Trend Trading experience.  You might consider keeping them in your testing since the feelings they excite account for much of the actual  experience of trading.

 

De-trending the data sounds like math-turbation - a DIM substitute for taking the actual ride.

 

 

 

Some Traders Look Everywhere

 

for ways to avoid

experiencing their feelings.

 

Clip: http://www.youthnoise.com/

page.php?page_id=2708

Thu, 17 May 2007

 

Working Through Feelings

Hi Ed,

I write to you 15 months after I first discover your TT website. I feel very grateful and respectful of you for the work you have done on TTP. Thanks.

For many years, until that time 15 months ago, I try to ignore my emotions and live using reason. I ignore my feelings, rejecting them as 'wrong' when I feel uncomfortable with them and accepting them, assuming them to have no purpose otherwise.

Then, I increase my trading size at work to a level that I feel overwhelmed by anxiety once I put the position on and then overwhelmed in a different way when my trade loses money. I end up closing out the position quickly for what is a big loss relative to my prior P&L swings. The strategy I had previously been profitable with was no longer viable at the new size.

I hate all the feelings involved and they affect my decision. I feel the same feelings when I lose when trading at other times but with much more intensity now. Prior to taking this position, my positions were small enough to be invisible to most people in the firm. So long as I produce a positive result on average, nobody paid that much attention. I know that I can not possibly succeed in trading whilst I feel that way as I can not stand the feelings. I want to make them stop. I hate it when what I want doesn't work out. The feelings are much more intense now many people can see my work.

I talk to somebody who knows you about my discomfort. They suggest I look up your website and I do. After I read though it and your book, the ideas begin to make sense to me. I become aware that I probably have many 'knotted' feelings.

I look up one of the two local tribes. I choose to write to the smaller tribe since I feel uncomfortable about presenting myself in front of too many people. I think this might be a 'knot'. After a few emails delaying my first attendance, I attend a meeting. I don't want to go in. I feel my heart pounding. I feel my breathing is shallow. I want to walk away, or at least hold on to anything on the way so I don't have to go in.

 

I force myself to go knowing that I can not continue to progress at work unless I develop some understanding of my emotions. I feel so overwhelmed after the meeting starts that I slip into a hot seat without really volunteering. I go with it but not wholly. I know I am holding back. It still feels liberating.

 

We spend the whole evening on my hot seat. I loop round feelings of anger, indifference and frustration. I have not openly felt these feelings and the forms that accompany them for over 10 years. I don't feel stable but I do feel open to new possibilities. I come back 2 or 3 more times until the tribe can no longer meet in the same space. Throughout the period, I become aware of many more of my emotions. I only do one more hot seat and spend the whole hot-seat punching one palm with the other fist. I feel a huge release to be allowed to feel so angry. I usually feel uncomfortable being openly angry. I think I find a second 'knot'. The tribe disbands without a space to meet.

I continue to want to explore my feelings and attempt DIM process. I can now feel anger more easily but I make no further progress to explore the initial feelings I came for. I make more effort to feel my emotions as they appear. For the first time since I am a boy, I begin to feel loss or sadness. I want to feel it but it seems blocked most of the time. One day, I think about my brother who died when I was a child. I feel resentment at him going. I end up saying goodbye. I cry for the first time in years. I now feel loss much more easily.

After a while, I apply to the other tribe. I feel so nervous again that I miss my first appointment. I stand outside feeling too uncomfortable to join in. I regularly feel like this. I attend large dinners with work. I make presentations from time to time to senior people. Each time, I feel panic and want to run away rather than stay and face the new people. The following week I force myself to go in because I want to develop. Over the next few meetings, I do a couple of hot-seats. I have a much better awareness of my emotions and so I distinguish them more clearly. I feel very strongly injustice, anger and sadness for myself all inter-mingled at once. I do not reach a 'zero-point' where I feel at peace. Instead I leave 'hot' with those feelings each time but pleased I have made some progress. This tribe also disbands because the leader wants to pursue other commitments.

Again, I continue looking to experience my feelings by myself. I think I find another knot at work. My overwhelming feelings when I take risks trading and lose continue to occur. I hate feeling like things are not going my way, that I am losing, that it's not working. I feel no good, I feel battered, I feel like I am failing and that I am not good enough to do it. I want to stop trading. I can't though. When the feelings pass, I feel determined to fight back again to win. I feel determined to earn a high income. I want to be in control. I hate feeling out of control. I hate that other people might do better than me, that they might have something I can't have, that they might win. I want to win now.

I think that I perpetually engage in what you describe as 'drama'. I want to be free of it. The two tribes in [my area] have disbanded. Apparently, I can not participate without setting up my own. However, I do not believe I currently have the ability to implement this successfully. I intend to attend your next workshop. In the meantime, I want to grow. I know you accept visitors to your tribe and also give private consultations under certain circumstances.

 

What contents do you need in the recommendation from the tribe leader in order for me to visit? I believe you know at least one of the NY tribe leaders. Alternatively, can you describe for me the typical success you have had with your private consultations?

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider the positive intention of embarrassment.

 

 

 

Embarrassment

 

has a positive intention.

 

 

Clip: http://www.andrewphelps.com/

archives/images/blushing.jpg

Tue, 15 May 2007

 

Wants a Newsletter


Dear Mr. Seykota,


I would like to know if you have any investment newsletter or service. If yes how we can subscribe and how much is its price.


Many Thanks,

This is it and it's free.

Tue, 15 May 2007

 

Bernoulli Abuse

If I understand your web page about Bernoulli abuse correctly you are not not denying That Bernoulli principle work as described in various text but it is not the main thing that makes a wing work.


I am working on a different way to make a propeller using Bernoulli without an angle of attack or a curved surface and I am wondering what you would think of it.


Please go to my web page and think about it.
Also do you know what happens to Bernoulli when the shear velocity is reached?


"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. This is the stage I am in. Second , it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self evident." -- A. Schopenhauer



"The art of invention is to do what others think impossible"

How do you know if an invention is revolutionary?
Count the experts that say it is impossible.

 

The invention is seldom revolutionary; the innovation is revolutionary.

 

You might consider building a lab prototype of your idea to see how it works.

 

 

 

Tim Berners-Lee

Internet Inventor

 

 

 

 

Larry Page and Sergei Brin

 

Internet Innovators

 

Clips:

http://www.w3c.de/PubPraes/tim2.jpg

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/23/

news/newsmakers/forbes_400/

Tue, 15 May 2007

 

Wants to Complete a Course

Dear Mr. Seykota:

First of all I apologize for sending this email as I have sent an earlier email before ( I don't want to be a thorn.) I am a trend follower and currently am taking a Masters in Risk and Asset Management course at [School]. Currently, my group is to present in a week (hence the irritating emails) about systems trading. When we chose that topic, I thought about you firsthand. I would like to share to my classmates about you if it is ok with you. Below is a list of questions I would like to ask you, sort of a Q&A, so I can tell my classmates about systems trading and your trading skills. If you don't mind, this will mean a lot to me.

The questions are:
1.) How did you decide that your system is the best system to trade the markets? (kind of goofy question, but just to show to my classmates)
2.) What systems do you use for your trading? (although this is a trade secret, some hints would be greatly appreciated!)
3.) Are stop losses your most important trading tool? if so, how do you employ it?
4.) If your system doesn't work occasionally, when do you come in (discretionary) and trade physically?
5.) What range of returns and volatility should one expect from a functioning system?
6.) What markets do you prefer to trade?
7.) Can systems trading be taught and why?


Well Mr. Seykota, I hope that this is not too much. I wish that you could reply to me in spite of your busy schedule. This would mean a lot to my group and educate my fellow classmates because they don't know what's going on in the real world; they only know theory. If you did reply, I will send you a power point presentation concerning my group's work and see where I fit you in my project. Thank you very much.

Very truly yours,

You might consider taking your feelings about home work to your Tribe as an entry point.

 

 

Sometimes It's Easier

 

to get someone else

to do your homework.

 

Clip: http://www.bluevalley.ed.cr/img/bvs03.JPG

Tue, 15 May 2007

 

Palmistry

Dear Sir,

I have been reading your FAQ pages for about a year now. I found it very useful. I am an aspiring trader myself going through the psychology phase. I also have an hobby of palmistry.

I don't know what your views are about palmistry. I believe that it can provide an insight into our personality, psychology rather than fortune telling or things like that.

I would very much like to read your hands. It would help me to learn how the lines on the hands of a great stocks trader look like. And it would help me to shape my trading mentality after yours.

If you would be so kind as to send me some scans of your hands I would be very grateful. I can assure you of your privacy. I will not share them with any third person.

Thank you.

OK. Read these: Royal Flush; Straight Flush and Four of a Kind. 

 

 

 

Hands Up

 

Clip: http://www.shoppingsurfer.com/

hands%20up%202.jpg

Tue, 15 May 2007

 

Fast Trend Following


Dear Mr. Seykota,


Do you think trend following can also be applied intra day trading?

Yes, you can apply trend following to short-term trading. For an idea of the results you might expect, see: MA-2 and MA-5.

Mon, 14 May 2007


Support

Ed,

I just thought I would let you know. I think I needed to experience corporate life one more time to realize how much I don't like it. I love being with my son and being a trader. I also realize how much I do not like office politics.


I just sent a note to my consulting firm that I am contemplating ending my term in June at the company I am working at. I thought this was a dream job, to work at this company but there is really a lot of suffering and stress.

 

I now feel sorry for these people who think they are living while working big hours the young years of there lives. They miss out on many things including their families.


I had trouble the last 2 years trading but I am going to try again. I know I can do it when I concentrate hard enough and follow my basic rules.


It does not matter anymore which way the market goes I am just going with it. I am writing you because I need your support. Most people around me just think I am lazy not working like everyone else. I do not feel guilty anymore for making big money by trading. I thought you and a couple of tribe members would understand.


Another try at full time trading for me. I just can't seem to give up on this dream.


Keep the joy of loving God in your heart and share this joy with all you meet especially your family. Be holy – let us pray. -- Mother Theresa

You might consider being very specific about the kind of support you want.

 

You might also consider taking the feelings you dislike about corporate life to your Tribe as an entry point.  If these feelings have anything to do with stress and / or accountability, they are likely to emerge during critical phases of your trading.

 

 

 

The Things You Dislike About Corporations

are things you dislike.

 

Mother Theresa is famous

for having good relationships

with all people, including corporations

 

and corporate donors.

 

Clip: http://www.collegerecruiter.com/employersblog/

archives/2004/12/this_is_the_coolest_stress_rel.php

Mon, 14 May 2007

 

Bonn / Mainz Tribe


Hi Ed,

Nice to see you in the net again.

We had our first meetings and would like to be in your directory.

Love and Respect

PS: A support group for trader and non-trader seems to be very in demand over here. I hope that everybody will be happy with the results.

 

 

Welcome!

 

Bonn / Mainz

 

Germany

 

Mon, 14 May 2007

 

Communicating with the Dead


Chief,

I read Napoleon Hill’s ‘Think and Grow Rich’ over the weekend and I get lots of Aha's, specifically about the power of faith, emotions, willingness, commitment, auto-suggestion and the need to have a snapshot and to begin NOW.

Toward the end of the book, he talks about past lives, the sixth sense, and our ability to communicate and conference with the greats who pass before us – Jesus, Napoleon, Emerson, Edison, Lincoln, etc.

Do you believe:

- That we have been here before this life?

- In the sixth sense?

- That we can confer with those who pass before us. Can we establish a link at the spirit / pure energy level with others that transcends clock time?

- Do we die as energy, as an intention?

- When you tell me: “When you know how to know, you will know if the Jade is real,” do you mean that I know everything, only if I am willing to look deep enough?

- Does faith remove mountains? Can we humans, if we put our energies together, remove a mountain just with our thoughts?

- Who is Jesus? Can he remove a mountain by himself? What makes him capable of the miracles that he does? And are these miracles in the sense that they overcome laws of nature? Can he, in a human form, stop the wind and raise somebody from the dead?

I understand if you do not wish to answer some or any of these questions.

Thank you for sharing your wisdom and insights.
 

The field of collective societal intentions entrains willing individuals to manifest these intentions as results.  Results can manifest simultaneously in different locations.

 

Ellipse

 

A drop of water falls

into a shallow elliptical pool

at one of the foci.

 

The other focus "reincarnates" a similar drop.

 

 

Clip: http://mia.openworldlearning.org/

mwforum/msg00475/ellipse.gif

 

 

 

 

Mon, 14 May 2007

 

TT FAQ Question


Hi Ed,

I've been interested in the markets and participated in our local market but haven't deviated much from breakeven point ever since. This poor performance led me to read a lot of trading books from motivational to strategy and psychology.

It appears that to be successful in this business, one must develop these 3 things, in order of importance:

1. Individual Trader Psychology or Attitude
2. Position Sizing and Risk Management
3. Trading System and/or Strategy

Am I on the right track?

P.S. Do you believe that classical chart patterns (i.e. triangles, pennants) can be used as trading strategy?

PPS. Loved your interview in the Market Wizards, gave me a lot about the markets and probably saved me huge losses.

Yes, you can use anything as a trading strategy.

 

The strategy is likely to generate results that validate the programming you carry in your "radiator."

 

We are currently developing ways to re-program our radiators with the Rocks Process.

 

 

You Receive What You Send

 

Clip: http://www.messianicspecialties.com/

images/products/radio_tower_A.png

Sun, 13 May 2007

 

Moving Averages

A couple of questions to a local Tribe Leader.

(1) What is the most efficient means of back-testing a particular dataset to determine the optimal set of moving averages for determining buy / sell decisions? Can you recommend a particular program or chart service?

 

The only means I am aware of is Ed Seykota's proprietary program, which generates a "Bliss Map" of the most robust combinations. Otherwise, one can manually step through each combination, as I did in this published study, also viewable here.



(2) Why does one normally speak of a momentum system generating buy / sell signals instead of long / short signals? If one had a trend following system following the Nasdaq wouldn't it have been better to have gone short in March 2000 rather than merely flat? Why the reluctance to go short?



Back test studies I've done and reviewed, indicate shorting stocks is not very profitable over the long term. May be due to the stock market's overall 10% annual upward drift. Add to this the practical trading quirks such as not being able to short certain stocks and the up tick rule, and one would conclude it's not usually worth it in an overall, long-term system, despite spectacular examples to the contrary.



In particular, I am noticing the sinusoidal pattern of [Stock] on a positive slope and am wondering whether it is might be worthwhile trying to capture the downdrafts as well as the up swells.

Any thoughts?

You might consider taking your feelings about out-guessing other traders to your Tribe as an entry point.

 

 

 

Three Shell Game

 

provides good practice

for honing up guessing skills.

 

 

Clip: http://www.kwmagic.com/images/

GOLDTHREESHELLGAMEBAR2.jpg

Fri, 11 May 2007

 

Free System


Hi Ed,

A trader recently published some trading rules for free. Now that these are widely used does this mean that they have lost their effectiveness?

If a system that used to generate huge profits is commonly used will it still be successful?

You might consider looking at some of the trader's results as well as his rules.

 

 

 

Trading Rules, Like Other Types of Rules

 

only work if you follow them.

 

 

Clip: http://www.aelliott.com/image_pages/

2002_pages/02_12_02_01_milan_beggar.htm