© Ed Seykota, 2003 - 2008 ... Write for permission to reprint.

Ed Seykota's

Frequently Asked Questions

Home  ...  FAQ Index & Ground Rules  ...  Tribe Directory - How to Join

TTP - The Trading Tribe Process  ...  Rocks  ...  Glossary

  TTP Workshop  ...  Resources  ...  Site Search  ...  The Trading Tribe Book

TSP: Trading System Project  ...  Breathwork

Associates Program  ...  Chart Server  ...  Contact Us  ...  The Whipsaw Song

 

April 15 - 20, 2008

 

<==  Previous  |  Next  ==>

 

 

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Sun, 20 Apr 2008

 

Confusion


Ed,

Is this a true telling of a fraud bailout or a fake story of a true bailout? I am confused. I plan to work on confused feelings in our tribe meeting.

Bear Stearns Buy-Out ... 100% Fraud

http://www.itulip.com/forums/

showthread.php?p=33768#post33768

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <fraud> to your Tribe.

Sun, 20 Apr 2008


Richard Feynman Sums It All Up

 
Ed -

Here's the quotation I was seeking tonight:

If, in some cataclysm, all of scientific knowledge were to be destroyed, and only one sentence passed on to the next generations of creatures, what statement would contain the most information in the fewest words?

 

I believe it is the atomic hypothesis (or the atomic fact, or whatever you wish to call it) that all things are made of atoms - little particles that move around in perpetual motion, attracting each other when they are a little distance apart, but repelling upon being squeezed into one another.

 

In that one sentence, you will see, there is an enormous amount of information about the world, if just a little imagination and thinking are applied.

[Richard Feynman, Lectures on Physics, I,1,2]

I love that.

OK.

 

 

 

Richard Feynman (1918-1988)

 

Feynman contributes to physics

with his insights

 

and to his students

with his enthusiastic teaching methods.

 

 

Clip: http://homepage.mac.com/fahrenba/

eport/standards.html

Sun, 20 Apr 2008

 

FAQ Metrics

 

Ed,


Wow, another shift in FAQ I notice! I don't know if this shift is me or you though.

My way of taking notes on FAQ involves breaking down into "bullet points" or "paragraphs." You have a lot of one-lined witty responses and I put them in bullet points. Others that you elaborate more I put them as paragraphs.

Early on (say 2003), the bullet-point-to-paragraph ratio is about 2:1 or even 3:1. However, I notice that ratio has been dropping, meaning I put fewer and fewer responses as bullet points but paragraphs instead.

The latest (FAQ Apr 1-14, 2008) has the ratio going the other way, 1:6!

I don't know if that's because as we progress you need to take more words to answer as we get deeper. Or perhaps, it is me who has a bigger capacity to understand your wisdom and can take in more.

Or maybe both.

In any case, I am not here to figure out but just commenting and let you know I wholeheartedly THANK YOU.

Thank you for your support.

Sun, 20 Apr 2008

 

Commitment to Right Livelihood

 

Ed,


Ed says, "Without a commitment to right-livelihood vehicles for personal growth can be like training wheels without a bicycle." (FAQ, 4/12/08, Rocks Process)

1. How can one tell if one has a commitment to right-livelihood?


2. How can one commit to right-livelihood? For example, I can commit to a daily workout program (except Sunday for recovery) for an hour for the next three months. I can understand this kind of commitment as I can see the result clearly (either I keep, or break my commitment).


However, I am not sure about how to commit to right livelihood.

I greatly appreciate your answers.

At this point, these topics, and the language to support them, appear only casually on FAQ. They are central to the upcoming Workshop.

 

 

Fredian Psychology

 

The Right Livelihood Loop

and the Addictive Loop

both compete for resources. 

 

Depending on how

you control your "Rock"

you can operate in Right Livelihood

or Addictive mode.

 

To see a larger image, see the Workshop link, above.

Sun, 20 Apr 2008

 

Another shift

 

Ed,


Oh, I just see another shift:

Ed says, "We hold the notion of an evolving moment of now and hold that future and past do not exist other than as medicinal concepts"

Again, I've seen many times you answering that past and future doesnot exist but just merely as concepts, but this is the first time I recall seeing them as "medicinal" concepts.

Can you elaborate on how future and past is just a medicinal concept?

It seems to me that in TTP lingo, "medicinal" refers to not taking pro-active steps. I personally find the concept of past and future quite useful in the sense that we can "simulate."

 

We can draw (in the now) on past experiences to 'predict' the likely consequence (in the 'future'). This way, we don't have to touch the thorn of the roses every time to learn that it feels very painful to do so. This ability to "simulate" doesn't seem medicinal to me at all but a rather proactive step to live in a way that we don't have to bump into walls as often.

Also, just a note that "prediction" seems to be a necessary theme inscience (albeit a difficult one, as Bohr suggests). Scientists seems to be mostly interested in coming up with testable (falsifiable) hypothesis and test them, and then verify that assumption.

 

In many ways, when we "test" a hypothesis successfully it means that we can predict accurately how this event will evolve according to the hypothesis.

As a person who advocates dynamic system, you seem not to be a big fan of this causal type thinking in a closed system.

 

I find it quite interesting considering your background (as far as I know) that involves a MIT engineering degree, which as an engineering major myself, find it mostly about studying closed systems and how we can control it. This is just my observation.

Thanks Ed. It is fascinating to hear your many view points. I greatly enjoy it.

Thank you for reading carefully, thinking about things and providing interesting questions.

 

The notions of past and future, in an engineering sense can help to model the time domain behavior of a system.  A price chart is an example of a time domain model. It shows price on one axis and time on another.  Such models can support Right Livelihood.

 

Emotional obsession with "what I should have done in the past" or with "what might happen in the future" can be medicinal in nature.

 

Note: In past / future terms, all the data on a price chart lies in the past and none of it lies in the future.

 

In servo design (one of my interests at MIT), we simulate the behavior of control systems such as tracking devices and thermostats in order to optimize their behavior. 

 

In these cases we might come up with an objective function (bliss function) that balances accuracy, response time and cost, and then optimize to this standard; we design the system so that it responds optimally to an evolving environment. 

 

The design does not provide for "predictions" of the future.

 

I do not see the basis for your claim that back-testing "means" we can predict anything.

 

 

Servo Assembly

 

showing motor, gearing, position sensor

and cables for power and control.

 

The servo is part of a system

that responds, passively,

to information from the environment.

 

The design does not include

a crystal ball.

 

Clip: http://www.seattlerobotics.org/guide/

images/servo3c.jpg

Sun, 20 Apr 2008

 

Metaformation


Ed,

 

I notice a shift in the latest FAQ:

For the first time you clearly and unequivocally acknowledge whys (Ed says, "Why is useful in various ways").

This is consistent with integrating wholly what seemingly opposing, and you seem to get to emphasize this point in recent FAQs (Ed says, "... rather than forming alliances to synthesize a unification of intention", "I maintain that TTP lies at the point where you can hold both models simultaneously ...")

I feel grateful for your progress :-)

Lastly, this is not necessarily a shift, but rather I wonder if this change in wording is deliberate:

Ed says "When you metaform that feeling from an adversary to an ally, things may fit into place rather automatically."

As the person who has taken 174 pages (and counting) of notes on FAQ ;-) I definitely see this type of answers many, many, times - but your typical answer is to "convert" the feeling from adversary to ally instead of "metaform".

Is there's a difference between "metaform" and "convert"? Also, can you elaborate how exactly to "metaform" since it is not a word I can find in the dictionary?

Thanks.

TTP is, by design, empirical and evolutionary.

 

Thank you for noticing the recent shift.

 

Metaform, verb, transitive:  to change something by embracing  it differently.

 

Convert, verb transitive: to change something by operating on it.

 

While I can find several English words for changing something by acting on it, I am unable to find an English word for the act of changing something by embracing it differently. 

 

I simply make up such a word from from meta  = {after; beyond} and form = {shape; phase}.  An alternative synthetic combination, metamorphose already exits and describes something changing itself.

 

Metaformation is a concept I am developing for the Workshop and for my forthcoming book.

 

 

Sun, 20 Apr 2008

 

Raising Capital

Ed,

I am in the process of raising capital for our fund. Hopefully this will show you how dedicated I am to working with you and being your apprentice.

Regarding raising capital, I wonder what commitments you are making to your clients.

Sun, 20 Apr 2008

 

Looking for help in Oregon


Hello Ed,

It is very encouraging to all the people that are being helped by the tribes in more ways than one. I looked at the directory and did not see anything in Oregon. I need help understanding, creating, and using a mechanical system. Do you have any advice as to how I can go about doing this? I did look at the TSP page. However I am new to trading and much of the info did not make sense to me. I have graduated from college and am willing to work hard. Any advice would be great. Thanks.

You might consider noticing how often you resort to using asking for help as medication for feelings of doing the work.

Sat, 19 Apr 2008

 

The Essentials Carry Card - Already Noticing Benefits
 

Hi Ed,

Thank you so much for sending me The Essentials Carry Card.

I feel happy and excited as I view it! I already notice its benefits.

Sending away for the card is truly a great trade and one that I am riding to the end.

OK.

Sat, 19 Apr 2008

 

Whipsaw Song

Ed,


Hope I'm not the only one.


Sure would love to hear some more of your music.
The trading principles are great too, but the music.
 

Wow.

Thank you for your support.

Fri, 18 Apr 2008

 

Disappointment


Dear Ed,

Thank you for FAQ.

I was struck by the recent post about the positive intention of disappointment.

 

I believe I'm coming to understand that it not only applies to right-livelihood but also to country in which one would like to live in.

Like you say, it's all process.

OK.

Thu, 17 Apr 2008

 

Working Through Feelings about Strong Stocks


Ed,

Oh I get it now "Wanting to be a Hero" by buying clean stocks ... that is not the feeling ... I will work this out with the Tribe here.

 

You are right though ... what am I doing ... so many stocks on strong up trends and I am looking at these pieces of junk???

 

The feeling is something like wanting to get in at the beginning of the move so I don't get a big whipsaw ... like (Greed, In a hurry, Fear, Jealousy not getting in at the beginning) ... but the strongest stocks have the smallest whipsaws ... o.k. I think you have just helped me fix a BIG problem here ... I should know better.

Thanks,

Thank you for sharing your process.

Thu, 17 Apr 2008

 

Receives TT Essentials Card


Hey Ed!

I smile in delight and surprise.

OK.

Thu, 17 Apr 2008

 

Knocking on Doors


Email to [Name] / CC to Ed ...

Just to say that advice about knocking on doors is naive. I always knew it was ... I have just received this from [Trading Group].

"We wish you well with your future endeavors and kindly request that you refrain from visiting [Our] premises."

No doubt they would call the police if I did. I was always worried about the Police when I went to see [Name] ... and that's pretty much why I stayed in my motel room for the 5 days I was there.

This has become a nightmare. I started out to write a system because I believed everything that was on your website ... because of the link to [Firm].

 

Originally your site said that it helped place traders. I have spent 6 years trying to build a system with that belief. Now you don't even talk to me and I feel hugely let down. I have never wanted to bully anyone into giving me a job, advice or money. I paid for the rules and I set about working to build a system. I wanted to do it based on my own merit and not the favors of others. I have built a system and proved it and now I need a small amount of capital to trade and a small salary ... that means a job ... nothing outrageous to ask ... and I am reduced to receiving emails like the one above, from the people I should be courting, when I present a system I have worked so hard to build. It's absolutely soul destroying.

-----

P.S. I am copying this to Ed Seykota ... maybe he has some advice he can give me on his website.

See Breaking the Rules, below.

Thu, 17 Apr 2008

 

Whipsaw Song


Hello Ed,

Just to say that I liked your whipsaw song.

Best regards,

Thank you for your support.

Thu, 17 Apr 2008


Cool Video


Hey Ed,


I hear harmonica in your blue grass music. I am a [Brand] Endorsee, and have all the keys.

 

Thank you for your support.

 

In Bluegrass, we have fiddles, mandos and harps.  Other places, I hear tell, they have violins, mandolins and harmonicas.

 

I wonder what kind of "blue grass" music uses a harmonica.

Thu, 17 Apr 2008
 

Lightening Up

Hey Ed,

Regarding "Wants to trade Magazine covers" Sun Apr 13:

I think you are right about lightening up. I am so light that I am all cash. If you think it sounds like "I want to be a Hero." I will then consider taking that feeling to our Tribe. I will repeat to myself. "Trade small ...Trade Small ... volatile market ..."

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking you feelings about <volatility> and  <knowing how to get back in> to Tribe.

Wed, 16 Apr 2008

 

Breaking the Rules


You have been an inspiration to me ever since I first read Market Wizards a few years ago.

 

I have some serious issues with discipline. For example, today I canceled my stop loss order right before it was going to be hit and as a result suffered a much larger loss than I should have. I did this despite the fact that I had promised myself that I would never do it again.

 

I don't understand why I can not seem to consistently follow my rules.

 

If it is true that I am getting what I want then I no longer want to want what I want. I wrote the following to describe the mental framework I believe that I must acquire in order to become successful.



The Mind of a Winning Trader
 

The mind of a winning trader is free of attachments. He is has no preference for the long side or the short side, neither is he attached to the notion that his analysis is necessarily correct. Absent of theses attachments he is able to evaluate the marketís behavior in an objective and flexible manner. He is able to reevaluate conditions as new information becomes available. The winning trader has no desire to hold a losing position. He has no desire to break the rules of his trading system. His desire is to do the right thing. In the mind of a winning trader he has already won. He does not care if any particular trade ends in a loss or a profit because he knows that in the final analysis there is only one possible outcome.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

Breaking The Rules

 

may lead to distractive drama

that serves to medicate

deeper issues,

 

like, say, perhaps,

taking responsibility for manifesting

Right Livelihood

 

Clip: http://digital-photography-school.com/

blog/break-the-rules-of-photography-

and-take-stunning-images/

Wed, 16 Apr 2008

 

Sticking to a System


Ed,

I just purchased your book on Monday and am now waiting in anticipation of its arrival. I've already read the first few pages you've posted on the site as well as all the FAQs, therefore whetting my appetite (not my pants) for long-term Ed-ology.

Thanks so much for sharing your insights; perhaps the first steps have been taken in starting my own tribe here in [City].


Sticking to a system is the single hardest thing I've ever had to do in this game. CM has finally convinced Fred that giving / receiving help and support to / from a Tribe is important to keeping us all on the right track.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Wed, 16 Apr 2008


Rules


Thanks Ed for your comment on theory of magazine covers. I agree with you: trading is discretionary. also for a systematic trader. The same kind of trader needs to translate a rule in such a way to run a simulation. In this case, it's not possible and he needs to override his system. I think that "Follow the rules without question" and "Know when to break the rules" go hand in hand here.

OK.

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

Sense of Entitlement


Ed says, "Attempts to Medicate the sense of entitlement can drive a society into insolvency."

What are some proactive steps one can take if medicating the sense of entitlement is common in the society? Thanks.
 

See Complacency below.

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

Studying

 

see previous: FAQ 3/23/08 Reading, Doing and Learning
 

I say:
Yes, we learn to do many things by doing them, but before doing them it may be helpful to get an understanding ... Sure, actually doing things is a crucial step in the process of learning, and we can never truly learn until we actually do it. However, I am not sure if you are taking it to another extreme where even discussing an obstacle encountered during the process and then seeking help and insights from other more experienced is a derailment of the learning process.

Ed says:
Percentage of people who learn to ride a bicycle by reading about it: 0%. Percentage of people who learn to ride a bicycle by getting on one and giving it a go: 100%

I say:
Your response is not inconsistent with my observation. I make it clear that actual doing is a crucial step step to learning, and that is not what I disagree with you on. My hypothesis - which I am curious if you agree - is:

On a scale of 1 to 10 where 10 means learning a skill effectively and 1 means not learning at all, the average score for a random group of people who learn riding a bicycle by first getting some understanding of what a bike is, and able to discuss any obstacle they encounter during the process and seek help and insights from other more experienced is higher than the average score for another random group of people who learn riding a bicycle just by getting on a bike without any understanding and are discouraged to discuss any obstacle they encounter during the process or seek help and insights from other more experienced.

Thank you for continuing to study this question.

 

 

 

Studying

 

can provide valuable resources

to accomplish a task.

 

and can also provide excuses

for not accomplishing a task.

 

 

Clip: http://www.trcc.commnet.edu/ed_resources/

tasc/images/people_studying.jpg

Wed, 16 Apr 2008

 

Trading Tribe Book


I am writing to say thank you for the book!

What a great read, I am processing it in my mind, and it is already helping me immensely! I like that the concept, its intricacies, implementation & resolution is easily explained to the reader, a mark of a well exercised mind!

BTW, I don't know if this will seem odd, but :
Perhaps the reason we suffer terrible trauma at the hands of others, as an adult or even when we are defenseless small children could be that we are saving someone else from having to go through dealing with him / her / it. We are offering a public service. Letting someone else off the hook.

My neighbor told me that. It helped.

Perhaps I need to take my "need for a reason" / "need for fairness" to the tribe? LOL!

Thanks again Ed.

You might consider taking your feelings about <trauma> to Tribe.

 

 

 

 

Saving Others

 

can provide a way

to medicate your own fears.

 

Clip: http://www.beachsafety.qut.edu.au/

images/heli_rescue.jpg

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

Whipsaw Song


Hi Ed,


I thank you for your confirmation [of the Workshop].

 

I wanted to congratulate you on your success with weight loss as well as completing the Whipsaw Song YouTube project.

 

I been listening to it every morning and it's been proven to be a powerful tool for me to stay on course. I thank you and the band members for the contribution and sharing.


Regards,


P.S. Cut the Loss, Drawdown, and News Flash in to the trash are my favorite part. Helping me out lot.

 

Thanks again.

Thank you for your support.

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

Trading Tribe Directory

Hi, Ed.


I went here :
http://www.seykota.com/

tribe/Directory/index.htm  to find a Tribe in Carolina to point a friend toward.


All the Tribes appear to have lost their "TTID page", there are no longer any addys, meeting places/times, etc.

Of course I only use WordPad, do not have Bill Gate's latest greatest Office version, so maybe that is the problem??

 

If so, could you consider using a less sophisticated and "fussy" Tribe listing platform? The idea (for me) is that it's more important to "provide info" than "look pretty".

But ... your site, your way. TTP is very important here - I haven't missed a meeting since this Tribe started.

Great "Whip Saw Song" rendition, and best of luck out there in the markets.

You might consider taking your feelings about <upgrading> to your Tribe.

 

 

 

One Way to Medicate

 

feelings about upgrading

 

is to ask others to downgrade.

 

 

Clip: http://www.johncow.com/wp-content/

uploads/2008/03/hard-work.jpg

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

Wants a Telephone Interview


Hello Ed,

First of all, major kudos on your new ďmusic videoĒ. Very entertaining Ė and of course, informative. J

Second, I wanted to see if you would be willing to do a phone interview, either as a straight 1-on-1 or a conference calls where folks could ask you questions. When I was a new trader I was fortunate enough to read your interview in Market Wizards and it definitely left an impression on me. I do a great deal of work educating new traders now myself and I think they would get a great deal out of hearing your trading philosophy and about the Trading Tribes concept.

I know you have a [Workshop] coming up. This interview could be a platform for promoting it as I would work my connections in the trading community to maximize listeners to the interview.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Thank you for your inquiry.

 

I dispense my notions and musings through this column, through my Workshops and through my books.

 

I wonder exactly what type of "folks" you imagine asking what type of  "questions" - and what advantage the interview format offers.

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

The Whipsaw Song


Ed,

That was some mighty fine picking and singing on the Whip Saw video. I love Baby Mine, and bluegrass as well for that matter, so I really appreciated the song. Great performance Ed!


Regards,

Thank you for your support.

Tue, 15 Apr 2008


Donchian-System Update



Dear Ed!


Iím interested in how the Donchian system worked out since your last update. Would you mind updating it?

Yours sincerely,

I occasionally update the page.

 

You might consider performing your own update as that system is well within the scope of most commercial testing software.

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

Uncertainty


Hi Ed,

I am excited to see a TT workshop is available. I put my application with essay in the mailbox today. Many days pass and I recall thinking about sending a system update and not doing it.

 

I have progress to report; however I feel stuck.

 

This is a familiar feeling of not completing tasks.

 

I am developing the system on stocks, long side first and am stuck at the portfolio selection task. I also notice a deeper feeling just now of ďnot giving up on something.Ē I hate the idea of quitting or giving up or failure. I will not quit, I may get stuck and procrastinate, but I just do not give up, I really hate it. This is interesting, I have trouble finishing tasks and I hate to give up or fail.

Now I will report the system progress, you can include it in FAQ if it is useful or leave it out:

The entry is at an exponential average cross or at a swing high break, both work well. I use an ATR type MM stop and a parabolic like trailing exit. Both exits work well. Adds happen twice, the first one is close to the original entry and less profitable, the 2nd add is further along the trend price wise and much better profit wise. I think the 2nd add works better because the trend is in the no-doubt phase. Scaling out did not test better than my Trail. For sizing, I develop a program to allow simulations of all sorts, and I mean all sorts. The net result of the size exploration is that my risk level on individual positions can increase, but my portfolio heat needs to decrease.

 

As I work on the system I have an AHA; Pre-TTP my ideas about systems is that they need to predict what a stock or commodity will do with high accuracy.

 

The key is before TTP I felt the system should predict. Now I view my system as not trying to predict, it is just getting in if there is a trend and riding it.

 

It is sort of saying, "I do not know what this trade will do, but if it trends I can and will ride it. If it does not, I have a plan to follow and will get out." I feel I still have the ďneeds to predictĒ idea for the portfolio section part of the system, so that is an AHA as well. Maybe it is part of why I feel stuck, more likely I have a knot?

Thank you for the sharing!

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

 

 

The Pro-Active Response to Uncertainty

 

is adaptation.

 

Medicinal approaches

to the feelings of uncertainty

include drinking, drugs

 

and consulting fundamental analysts.

 

 

 

 

The Calculus of Uncertainty

 

does not provide any information

that lessens the risk of gambling.

 

The Gambler's Fallacy

 

confuses

case probability

with class probability.

 

 

Clips:

http://www.davenicolette.net/

articles/when_2b_agile.html

 

http://mises.org/story/2608

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

Defining a Personal Vision

 

Ed,

 

I would like my livelihood to consist of trading full time. 

 

I want to continue to manifest a constant growth in this field.  I would like to have a system in which I can lay all my convictions behind. 

 

I would like to implement this system while managing money for myself and others.  I want develop a track record that competes with the best in the industry (Bruce Kovner, Paul Tudor Jones, Steve Cohen). 

 

I see myself running a fund with a substantial amount of equity forcing me to push my own emotional levels and entirely explore my personality and  I see myself continuing to work on myself spiritually and emotionally to reach a certain point where I can expect the same out of a serious significant other. 

 

I do see my self with at least 2 or more children and them becoming a focal point in my life.  I want to continue to have an open and healthy relationship with my mother and father.  I also see myself playing a larger role in my younger sisterís life and spending more time with her.  I see my best friends playing a significant role in my personal as well as business life.

 

I want to continue to have health and recreation coincide.  Mediation will remain a pillar in my life and I will continue practicing it twice a day.  I see my self focusing on intergrading spirituality with my material life and to work on transcending my ego.  I also want to still have yoga, ice hockey, and weightlifting integrated throughout my weekly of my schedule.  I will continue to being committed to staying away from harmful substances including alcohol and red meat.  My two main recreational passions are to travel and surfing.  I want to put myself in a financial situation where I have the luxury to travel and explore the world with surfing as the constant in all my endeavors.  

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

If you wish to move forward you might consider the following:

1. Devise and back-test a trading system.

2. Tell all the women you know you want 2 or more children.

3. Tell your parents you wish to have an open and healthy relationship with them.

4. Tell your younger sister you wish to play a larger role in her life.

5. Get airline tickets and hotel room reservations to three surfing locations.

While you are doing these things, you might notice your feelings - and any other distractive behavior patterns you find yourself doing.

 

 

Weapons of Mass Distraction

 

Distractions

 

are typically a form

 

of self-medication.

 

 

Clip: http://www.buzzhumor.com/pictures/

16059/Weapons_Of_Mass_Distraction

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

Between Complacency and Apathy
 

Ed,

About the time our original thirteen states adopted their new constitution in 1787, Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh , had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years earlier:

A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government.

A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury.

From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years.'

During those 200 years, those nations always progressed through the following sequence:

1. From bondage to spiritual faith;
2. From spiritual faith to great courage;
3. From courage to liberty;
4. From liberty to abundance;
5. From abundance to complacency;
6. From complacency to apathy;
7. From apathy to dependence;
8. From dependence back into bondage.


Professor Joseph Olson of Hemline University School of Law, St. Paul , Minnesota, states:

In aggregate, the map of the territory Bush won was mostly the land owned by the taxpaying citizens of this great country. Gore's territory mostly encompassed those citizens living in government-owned tenements and living off various forms of government welfare...'

Olson believes the United States is now somewhere between the 'complacency and apathy' phase of Professor Tyler's definition of democracy, with some forty percent of the nation's population already having reached the 'governmental dependency' phase.

 

Most of us grew up with the saying 'history always repeats itself.' The American people really need to think seriously about WHO they will be voting for.

Your argument seems to imply that the cycle is inexorable; in that case, resistance is futile.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <what people need to do> to Tribe.

 

 

 

Thinking can be Hard Work

 

People find many ways

to medicate feelings

of having to think.

 

Clip: http://www.goodcommitment.tv/category/blog/

Tue, 15 Apr 2008

 

TSP Extension - Trading Systems


Hello Ed!


Here are some thoughts about possible TSP extensions!

Approximately one year ago [Name] tells me you suggested to run optimizations for different futures. I mentioned to him that this would be extreme curve-fitting and hence I didnít see much sense in it.

 

Ultimately I did this research to get a sense whether the indicators should be long-term or short-term. I see that most individual optimal values for the slow indicator (SR and EA) lie above 100. This seems to confirm your long-term point of view! I feel irritated that [Name] didnít answer.

I donít really know what to test or implement next. I think your index of the TSP page may be useful. For example: research on margin could be useful to achieve a realistic trading simulation. So far I only traded stocks and donít have any experience with margins and their functionality.

Another problem I see for a later moment of now is this: Iím from [Country], but most futures are traded in US-$. How can I effectively manage currency-risk?

Yet another suggestion: Research on how to improve risk- and money-management. One way might be to introduce ďoverall-heatĒ. For example you could say: "when total risk exposure lies at xx% no further trades will be engagedĒ.

 

But this doesnít necessarily mean that risk exposure will get less. When a future goes in the direction of a major trend with great momentum the difference between the actual price and the stop will get greater and so does the Ė at least individual Ė risk exposure.

Another way to improve risk-management might be the usage of correlation between futures to get a better diversification.

And my last idea for now is that there might be chart patterns that improve the risk / reward ratio significantly and hence should be traded more often.

 

But in the end I think that would be the search of the holy grail.


Let me know what you think about my ideas!

With best regards,



P.S.: I would like to form my own tribe. I currently asked a few friends if they were interested. Some seem to be interested but didnít give a concrete answer. Iím working on this. When it doesnít work I will fill out your Word-template and see if there is someone who wants to join me.

P.P.S.: As Iím from [Country] I donít know how much the postal charge is for a letter from the US ... and I also donít have the chance to get US-$-stamps I would like to know whether there is the possibility to add more Dollar-bills to the envelope but no stamps?

Thank you for your email.

 

If you feel irritation with someone, you might consider communicating your feelings directly to him.

 

If you are looking for a project, you might see if you can come up with an index that relates futures contract volatility to margin - so you can create a margin proxy for simulations.

 

The idea of using total portfolio risk as a way to lighten up may be a form of top -picking.

 

You might consider trend following as a form of pattern recognition.

 

For current postal rates, see:

http://postcalc.usps.gov/