© Ed Seykota, 2003 - 2009 ... Write for permission to reprint.

Ed Seykota's FAQ

(formerly: Frequently Appearing Questions)

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December 15 - 31, 2008

 

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Note: The intention of inclusion of charts in FAQ is to illustrate trading principles - The appearance of a chart does not imply any kind of indication or recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out of any positions.

 

 

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Wednesday, December 31, 2008


Wishes for 2009 !


Hi Ed,


to you and your family ... have a great 2009 ! And thank you so much for all ...

Bye

Thank you for your support.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

 

Wants to Join a Tribe


Hello,

I just discovered the Seykota website today. Very interesting and entertaining. Is there a [City] Tribe? When will the next Lake Tahoe area meeting take place?

You can consult the Tribe Directory for a tribe near you - and you can also start your own.

 

The IV Tribe is open for Workshop graduates and/or people with considerable experience with the work.

 

I am planning to host a series of meetings this winter that combines the Tribe format with the preparation of a plan for accomplishing a goal.

 

To apply for this series, email FAQ.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVg27TQqMnc

 

Planning and Staying in the Now

Monday December 29, 2008

 

Understanding the Wife - Follow Up
see previous: Monday, November 17, 2008

Ed,

As I write my previous email, I am still shocked as I realize that I use anger to cover substantial problems in my marriage.

 

I explain my feelings to my wife. She shows anger, rejection, hate, fear about the future. I move to the cellar and for several days we only have a minimal contact. I am only there for our children.

 

After some days, she says "I feel terribly lonely. I understand how you felt all this time". We both realize that the other has some lovely and some unbearable parts. We both see that we are partially responsible for the unbearable part of the other. We realize that our goal is happiness and to be in peace with ourselves, not to be together at any cost.

After this mutual aha, things change: my wife shows understanding for my emotional needs, for my need for communication and physical contact. She is more open and more expressive about her feelings.

 

As she changes, I start spending substantially more time with my children and enjoying it a lot. She is surprised and very happy about my change. We stop behaving like two strangers, scolding the kids and avoiding each other. I am really surprised about her change, and she about mine.

I don't know how long it is going to last or how it will further develop. I do not worry about the future nor make reproaches about the past: I live in the ever changing moment of now and enjoy it.

I feel that I am moving towards right livelihood with warp impulse.

Thanks, Ed.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

The title you provide for your report is "Understanding the Wife."

 

You might consider finding out, directly from your wife, her way of understanding that you love her (examples: you bring me chocolates, take me out to dinner, give me back rubs, etc).

 

Then consider taking your feelings about <doing those things> and <understanding the wife>  to Tribe.

 

Understanding is the development of thoughts about something that parallels the thoughts of others.

 

 

 

Cool Hand Luke Understands Things

 

a little differently.

 

Luke:

"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin'

can be a real cool hand."
 

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/

watch?v=1fuDDqU6n4o

 

Philosophical Commentary

on Failure to Communicate

and Getting What You Want

 

 

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/

watch?v=_uU6aYNXnUk

 

Loving You

by Minnie Riperton

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQpXzqfE7TY&NR=1

 

Fall To Pieces

by Jabe

 

 

Some Feelings about Loving

and Conflict

 

When You Can See

 

the pink and the blue

as parts of one color,

 

you are near the zero point.

 

 

Clip:

http://blogs.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/food/

2007/06/the_clip_thats_banned_go_to_wo.html

Sunday, December 28, 2008


More Legal Drama

see: previous, Legal Drama, FAQ, 12/3/08


Hi Ed,

Thanks for the response, and the suggestion that I may take my feelings about "uncertainty" and "intimacy" to the Tribe as an entry point. While "uncertainty" definitely makes sense, "intimacy" is surprising and I wonder what's up with that.

I always feel the fine print (or "lawyer talk" to me) on any documents (e.g. credit card agreement, rebate form, or even the Congress' TARP bill in its original form) ridiculously complicated, and yes, the non SVO-p format makes it like a spaghetti and difficult to read nor understand.

However, I feel that they are also a part of what we need to live in this society. As you say in the FAQ, legal system depends on a causality model, which differs from the systemic model that TTP bases on.

I originally find the legal disclaimer unnecessary, as I never signed one during my Workshops nor Breathwork sessions with you. However, other members who went to your 2007 and 2008 workshops reported to me that you start asking attendees to sign one, so I thought maybe TTP has evolved to a point where you see a need for such action.

Ed says, "I am not clear how any of the drama is your problem."

Well, I feel partially responsible for the drama. As the chief of the local Tribe, I feel an obligation to run and coordinate the Tribe. There is a risk that we can no longer hold tribe meetings and I have to disband the tribe if there is no solution to this, and I feel I am responsible to keep the tribe running to the extent that I can.

Also, I also feel that other members are looking at me as chief to see how I handle a crisis, and see if I do things the TTP-way (e.g. intention=result means accepting responsibility, not playing the blame game), or is it just empty talk and MIA when there is a real crisis.

Lastly, while the issue seems to revolve around the agreements my friend has with the bank, I feel that leaving a $19k bill to him is irresponsible. Unlike modern societies, I feel that there is a stronger sense of unity in tribal communities in that one's problem is the entire tribe's problem, because it is easier for individuals to realize they are part of the system. Moreover, even though I am not a big fan of the disclaimer idea, there is an implicit approval on my part to it when my friend pursued the lawyer and I never raised any objections.

Ed says, "Let me know how this one evolves."

Well, the "good" news is that the lawyers has reduced the bill to $5k, and then $3k, which is more manageable. We are asking each member to contribute, preferably $20 to each meeting until the bill is fully paid off.

While I am not happy about paying and I don't know what my intention was to get this result, in a way, I do learn more about myself. There were moments of weakness when I feel like quitting. There were moments of inspiration when I see others take it as an opportunity to apply what we've learned in TTP to deal with crisis. And I can envision the moments of elation when we fully pay off the bill.

Lastly, if you are considering having a Workshop or hold a meeting in our city, my offer still stands. We'd be happy to be partners with you and help coordinating.

Thanks, and wish you a happy new year.

P.S.
You still have [City] in the post instead of making it anonymous with [City].

The current TTP Workshop Agreement (an SVO-p document) invites participants to take full responsibility for their experience, intentions and results, and allows them to exit the Workshop with a full refund if they are unwilling to do so.

 

The document also provides an entry point for examining feeling about agreements.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <responsible for others> and <controlling others> to Tribe.

 

Please specify the exact location of the reference to a specific city.

 

 

 

Control Devices

 

work directly and easily on televisions

 

and not so directly or easily

on people.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.global-b2b-network.com/direct/

dbimage/50158127/KTV_Remote_Control.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, December 28, 2008


Lucid Dreams


Hi Ed,
 
What do you know about lucid dreaming? Is it do-able or is it impossible?

 

Thanks.
 

Lucid Dreaming refers to the awareness that you are dreaming.

 

A second-ply Lucid Dream refers to the awareness that you are dreaming about being aware of dreaming.

 

To detect high-ply lucid dreaming, you can try pinching yourself to wake up.  If you are in deep enough, you might then only be dreaming you are waking up.

 

During Breathwork sessions, people routinely report extensive periods of awareness of an internal, dreamlike state.

 

 

 

Visions of Sugarplums

 

Clip: http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/

entertainment/dining/reviews/blog/sugarplum.jpg

Saturday, December 27, 2008

 

The Night Before Christmas

 

Ed,

 

Here is an up-to-date version of the classic poem.
 

Happy Holidays!


THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS

'Twas the night before Christmas
And all down the Street
Not a hedge fund was stirring
Not even a peep

The write downs were hung
From the chimney with care
In hopes that St. Benjamin
Would soon be there

The bankers were nestled
All snug in their beds
While visions of bailouts
Danced in their heads

Dear Treasury and Congress
And the FOMC
Oh please won't you save me
Mr. FDIC?

For the Nikkei had tumbled
And the S&P crashed
And not a bank in the world
Had saved any cash

In London, in Tokyo
And, of course, on Wall Street
There was nary a profit
On their balance sheets

On sub-prime, on leverage
On CDO's
Are any banks solvent?
Nobody knows.

Investors had fled
Redemptions were froze
Their investments now worthless
For the funds had all closed

Oil's at 40
Stocks are in deep
The Yen's at the moon
The Euro is cheap

And when it looked like the market
Would never turn 'round
I heard the most wonderful
Magical sound

For what to my wondering
Eyes should appear?
But a federal helicopter
And eight tiny reindeer

It kicked up a cloud
Of new fallen snow
As it hovered above
My rooftop below

And the doors they all opened
From way up on high
And the money it fell
Through the Christmas Eve sky

Dollars and sterling
Euro and Yen
No expense spared
Consumers must spend

And then he appeared
All decked out in red
An angel from heaven
The chair of the Fed

He stood on my rooftop
Yelling with glee
"If the banks, they won't lend it
We'll print it for free."

As I doubled my leverage
And turned back around
Down the chimney St. Benjamin
Came with a bound

He was dressed in Brooks Brothers
From his head to his foot
His checkbook was covered
With ashes and soot

A bundle of money
Was flung on his back
Dollars and T-Bills
Overflowing his sack

To Fannie and Freddie
GM and GE
To Citi and Goldman
And, of course, AIG

Mortgages, car loans
Credit cards, too
Credit default swaps
We'll buy it from you

From currency swaps
To agency debt
The Bank of New Zealand
And China is next

He filled all the banks
With holiday cheer
Except for poor Lehman
They were naughty this year

He gave out his goodies
But before he did go
He stuffed all our stockings
With taxpayers' dough

And then he was gone
In a white puff of smoke
But nothing had changed
The country was broke

But still he did yell
'Ere he flew out of sight
"Merry Bail-Out to all
And to all a good night."

Thank you for the poem.

 

The appearance of a current crisis in humorous poems, songs and in late-night TV monologues may indicate that the discount is reaching its later stages.

 

In its wake, we may have an opportunity to watch a similar cycle play out during the impending discount of expectations of entitlement to low interest rates, low prices, free medical care, high retirement income, full employment in high-paying jobs and bail-outs for all.

 

 

 

Entitlement

ia guarantee of access to benefits.

 

Arrogance

is a false sense of entitlement.

 

One of the positive intentions

of a recession

is to regulate arrogance.

 

 

Clip: http://hotair.cachefly.net/hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2006/05/entitlement.jpg

 

 

Saturday, December 27, 2008

 

Various



Hi Ed.

 

And thanks in anticipation of your response:


1) Do you believe that it is necessary to have a long-term trend following system that works across ALL markets, or is it possible (or even recommended) to run different systems on different markets without this falling under the broader notion of over optimizing? I was thinking about this because most of the systems I’ve tried to develop (very basic moving average systems) seem to pick up great gains on commodities but rarely on currencies. Then I began thinking that the nature of currencies in general is not like commodities. Eg. The may be a shortage of soybeans that results in continually rising prices for months on end, but in currencies, there will be more counter-swings caused by intervention, changes to monetary policy, etc.



2) Once you develop a system that proves profitable over say a 25 year period (be it with historical data, reversed data or with Monte Carlo simulation), how then do you START that system? What I mean by this is that if one were to use an official start date, you might be missing a signal that was generated a week prior that ends up being one of those annual gains that ‘makes’ a huge contribution to the system’s results. Of course one might also miss taking a trade that could have caused significant drawdown. OK, I think I just answered this one myself. But feel free to add anything I may be overlooking.



3) Do you have any recommended average win/loss ratios or expectancy minimums that you look for when developing a system? I ask this because I find it odd the most simple system of using two long term exponential moving averages can create a 37% win rate with an average profit 3.9x the average loss. Yes the drawdown on such systems may be extraordinarily large, but if implemented over a 25 year period, what difference does it make?



4) What do you believe it the most critical element of successful trend following systems? After spending countless hours trying to design a system with fancy formulas, etc. I continually find a system that works (even without money management rules, pyramiding, stops, etc) is an exponential moving average system. Are the better trend following systems (yours, Hite’s, Dunn’s, etc) simply such systems that are then “tweaked” with pyramid techniques, stops, etc? (obviously I’m aware your response to this question will be limited!)


Thanks very much and Merry Christmas.

1.  In politics, in trading and in life in general, things sometime trend and sometimes stay in a range.  Francis Bacon notes this several hundred years ago.

 

 

 

Francis Bacon

(1561–1626)

 

In his essay, Of Great Place, Bacon express an underlying rationale for Trend Trading in the statement, "...and as in nature, things move violently to their place, and calmly in their place."

 

Sometime commodities move, sometimes currencies move, sometimes stocks move, etc.  More recently, Jerry Reed sums it up in the song, When You're Hot, You're Hot:

 

Oh well now me and Homer and Big John Talley
Had a big crap game goin' back in the alley
And I kept rollin' them sevens

and winnin' all them pots
My luck was good I could do no wrong
I just kept on rollin' and controllin' them bones
Fin'ly they just threw up their hands and said

When you're hot you're hot

I said yeah When you're hot you're hot

and when you're not you're not

Put all the money in and let's roll 'em again

when you're hot you're hot
(La la la la la when you're hot you're hot)
Well now ev'ry time I rolled 'em dice I'd win
And I would just get ready to roll 'em again.

 

 

Jerry Reed Hubbard

(March 20, 1937 – September 1, 2008)

 

Reed develops an idiosyncratic style

of playing guitar while in his teens.

His guitar teacher instructs him to unlearn it.

Reed dumps the teacher

and gets a recording contract instead.

 

2. You might consider taking your feeling about <missing out> to Tribe.

 

3.  Attempts to specify expectancy are largely medicinal.  If you don't have a taste for risk, you might consider taking your feelings about <uncertainty> to Tribe.

 

4. An important factor, generally the most important factor, is the degree to which you  follow the essential principles.

 

Clips: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/

commons/archive/6/65/20051021211809!

Francis_Bacon.jpg

 

http://clippernolan.wordpress.com/2008/09/04/

elvis-presley-sings-jerry-reeds-guitar-man

December 27, 2008

 

Trading Plan

see previous


Dear Mr. Seykota,

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my e-mail. Do you know perhaps any individuals who wish to invest with a mechanical trend-following system trader? The CAGR will be approximately 50%.

Many thanks!

Kind Regards,

I know of no investors who wish to accept a claim of 50% CAGR without some form of substantiation.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

 

Another Video of Ed on You Tube



Ed,

I observe an 100% increase in the number of Ed´s videos in YouTube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34J1epdfW1A

It is a nice Christmas present for all Tribe members!

Yours,

This video is from Bob Piechocki's annual "Day After Thanksgiving" jam for bluegrass musicians in the Reno area.

 

At this event, the theme is the "Great Depression" and Bob invites people to perform something from that Era.

 

The appearance of a video of my part in the show comes as a surprise to me. 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, December 27, 2008

 

IVTT R&R Series


Hi Ed,

I want to know more about the R&D series you mention. Is it related to the TSP effort from a couple of years ago? I am reading old FAQs in order and am looking forward to finding what comes of TSP.

If the R&D series is a communal effort like TSP, how can I contribute?

I live in Northern California and can easily drive to IV or fly to Truckee if the weather is good.

Ari.

I envision a series of about 6 to 10 meetings in which the participants commit to preparing a study on some topic that can appear on the TSP pages.

 

Meetings are to include opportunities to present progress, gain feedback and receive Tribe support to facilitate and accelerate the process.

 

 

Friday, December 26, 2008

 

More on Inflation

see: previous / previous

 

Dear Ed,

Ed states: "the Money Supply is Expanding at a rate without precedent" right below a St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base Chart.

 

That is not necessary the case. Monetary Base may increase (as it is right now) while Money Supply does not (it is increasing but still at a much slower pace).

Happy Holidays,

Yes, Money Supply is a loose term for Monetary Base, M1, M2, M3, Currency, Demand Deposits, Credit, Debt, etc.

 

MV = PT

 

Money Supply * Money Velocity

theoretically equals

Price * Transaction Rate

 

The classic notions of supply and demand are essentially static causal abstract models.

 

Dynamic feedback models capture stocks and flows, levels and rates, desires and expectations. 

In economics, money supply, or money stock, is the total amount of money available in an economy at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but each includes currency in circulation and demand deposits.

Money supply data are recorded and published. Public- and private-sector analysts have long monitored changes in money supply because of its possible effects on the price level and the nominal or real value of output. That relation is historically associated with the quantity theory of money and evidence of a direct empirical relation between long-term price inflation and money-supply growth. These underlie reliance on monetary policy as a means of controlling inflation.

 

-- Wikipedia

Friday, December 26, 2008

 

Revises Trading Plan

see previous

Dear Mr. Ed Seykota,

Many thanks for reviewing my plan. My previous plan was based on the fact that I have $10,000 as starting equity. I have revised the plan according to your instructions and I have attached it in this e-mail. I look forward to receiving your feedback and/or any TSP assignment.

 

Now – Feb. 2009

Develop the trend-following trading system.


Feb. 2009 – Feb. 2010

Compulsory national army service (it is very likely that I will be called to serve the army for 12 months on February) Develop the trading system in the evenings and/or when time allows.


Mar. 2010 – Jun. 2010

Seek client investors to raise $1,000,000.


July 2010 –

Future Trade mechanically

Thank you for your time, I wish you happy holidays.

You might consider beginning your marketing immediately.

 

 

Feedback from Clients

 

can help steer

your career.

 

Clip: http://nerdapproved.com/wp-content/

uploads/2007/06/steering-wheel-desk-clock.gif

Thursday, December 25, 2008

 

Wants to Join a Tribe

Hello


I have ordered the Trading Tribe book, and read it with great delight. Thank you.


I am recently re-located in [City]. I saw that there is a group for the trading tribe here, I tried to contact the contact indicated on our web site but the mail bounce back mentioning that it was a non-valid email.

Do you know if this person still operates Trading tribes meetings ?. If yes, I would be delighted to attend one.

Tribes, by design, evolve.

 

I monitor Tribes through FAQ contributions.

 

If a Tribe is inactive, you can start your own.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Rude

Hi Ed,

1. Finally I got how to calculate Dr-Dn. The solution came after I had a salmon for my lunch. Now I recommend it for everybody who wants to get the problem solved :). But the first trigger to my subconscious was your pseudo-code.

3. I cannot come to [City] trading tribe. The reason is that, I was very rude to the leader in the first few meetings, and he asked me to make him happy not to come anymore. Completely my fault. This is cultural difference. I came from [Country] and been educated by my dad not to disclosure my own feelings. A. Nobody is interested. B. Do not disturb people around, and, C. mainly, if you the MAN, you have to solve it yourself, if you have a little bit a brain. In opposite case nothing will help you. So, I felt myself very uncomfortable in a hot seat. And was a very rude.

2. Have a wonderful Christmas and Happy New Year. I wish you and your family the very best in a coming year.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might like to consider the positive intention of rudeness.

 

 

Rude People

 

sometimes point the way.

 

 

Clip: http://www.clickofthemoment.com/

index.php?moment=217

Thursday, December 25, 2008


Entry Signals FAQ
 
Dear Ed,

I have a back-testing program. The system I am building consistently returns some extraordinary results. Yet I'm not sure if the data is robust enough to trade off. I'm building a basket for entry and exit alerts based on daily interval charts. On average the system makes 4 to 12 trades per security over the length of the 8 year simulation. Yet, is 4 to 12 trades enough to conclude that the future signals I get from this system are reliable?

I understand the danger in using the term "future signals", as trend following is not predictive.

 

However, if trend following does not seek to generate signals that are more or less reliable with respect to future performance then why not randomly enter the market while maintaining an exit strategy entirely based on one's personal tolerance for drawdown?

You might consider taking your feelings about <risk> to Tribe.

 

 

Your Beliefs About Risk

 

help determine

your rewards.

 

Clip: http://www.bized.co.uk/current/mind/

2006_7/140507.htm

Thursday, December 25, 2008

 

Wants to Join a Tribe

Dear Mr. Ed Seykota,
 

I am in [City, Country] and would like to join a trading tribe here. I did mail a request to [Name] to his mail id which was there on the site but received no response. Kindly give me his contact no and address and also his latest mail id so that I can contact hi.

An early response will be highly appreciated.

You can start your own Tribe.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

 

Merry Christmas

 

Hi Ed,

Just a short note to wish you & yours a very Merry Xmas and may you all have a great 2009.
Thank you also for posting the very insightful FAQ.
I find this to be a most valuable & helpful resource as I learn a lot from both the questions asked and from the answers given.

That's it for the moment, hope to see you again next time I'm in the 'States'.

All the best,

All the best to you and yours.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

 

Graphical User Interface


Ed,

 

Ed Says:
You might consider creating a working GUI set -
that is, a set of interacting screen shots so you can develop the look and feel of your app.

This approach might help you prioritize your feature set, define your entry points and also suggest your class structures.


Thank you for the suggestion [to build the GUI first]

Yes, I agree this is a valuable next step.

I'm creating a working GUI set now.

I wonder how I can help you.

OK.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008Flag this message
 

IVTT

Ed,

Thank you for your responses to my entries. Your answers to me and other contributors make me think. They evoke feelings. They help me experience feelings. I want to join the Incline Village Tribe.

In 2004, a contributor writes, "To bad this stuff can't be bottled," I wonder if "IVTT" means you administer the stuff intravenously :=)

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you, your family, and everybody who reads the FAQ.

I am planning to conduct a 6-week R&D series for the IVTT.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008


Happy Holiday

Hello Ed,

I wanted to thank you for the tribe and your commitment to TTP. I have benefited greatly from your unselfish work. I look forward to speaking to you soon. I wish you and yours all the best.

Again Thank You and Best Wishes,

Thank you for sharing your process.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008


Merry Christmas!

Chief,

I wish you and your family a Merry Christmas and the best for the New Year. I thank you with all my heart for the gift you give us with TTP, with your help, with your support and with your commitment.

I can manage to visit the IVTT in January or February. I really want to test and improve my skills, I want to offer the best support I can to my Tribe and to the Tribe in [Country]. Maybe you can send me a schedule of the meetings in the coming weeks.

Yours,

I am planning an R&D series for the Incline Village Trading Tribe.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008
 

A Christmas Wish

 

Ed,



 

Thank you for the wish.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

 

Greetings


Hello Ed,

Merry Christmas to you and your family. I wish you all the best this holiday season!

Warm regards,

-----

Generally, this communication is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. In the event you are receiving the offering materials attached below related to your interest in hedge funds or private equity, this communication may be intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of such fund(s). All market prices, data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of JPMorgan Chase & Co., its subsidiaries and affiliates. This transmission may contain information that is privileged, confidential, legally privileged, and/or exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the information contained herein (including any reliance thereon) is STRICTLY PROHIBITED. Although this transmission and any attachments are believed to be free of any virus or other defect that might affect any computer system into which it is received and opened, it is the responsibility of the recipient to ensure that it is virus free and no responsibility is accepted by JPMorgan Chase & Co., its subsidiaries and affiliates, as applicable, for any loss or damage arising in any way from its use. If you received this transmission in error, please immediately contact the sender and destroy the material in its entirety, whether in electronic or hard copy format. Thank you. Please refer to http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures  for disclosures relating to UK legal entities.

Thank you for your greetings.

I particularly like the sign-of-the-times disclaimer at the bottom of the note.

All the best to you and yours.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Amazing Day

Hi Ed

I want to share a most amazing day.

Yesterday I wake up with a feeling of guilt. I imagine my tribe encouraging me to pump up these feelings (they're calling out "feel it! it's all your fault!"), and note the feeling in my new journal. This is no replacement for tribe, and my best response alone in bed at 6am. I have an insight and the feeling passes.

During breakfast, with my son, we listen to the Bach Festival (8 days of JS) on WCKR New York. Leopold Stokowski / Passacaglia and Fugue in C minor BWV582 is played, a piece I have not heard in 20 years.

 

It is so sad, so beautiful, I cry. I have knot cried in some time (sadness k-not + trading = look out!). My son takes it all in. Afterwards I call my wife in the room and proudly show her my tears. She encourages me, and is happy too.

This entire month I feel overwhelmed with end of the year demands, and demands I make on myself. Consequently I am plagued with a feeling of being buried, running out of time.

Tuesday is different: After my morning tears, I complete two huge, quality projects at work. After a project I have an aha about guilt I feel earlier.

During lunch I complete writing page one of the draft of the study I wish to send to you. I leave work early to renew my expiring drivers' license - another goal I think about for days but am unwilling to fulfill.

 

I schedule 2 hours of music lessons Friday as a birthday gift for myself, get home before dark, and take my son for a hike in the snow, something I wish to do for days.

The icing on the cake of yesterday's accomplishments is my son & I surprise my wife by cooking her favorite dish, roasted duck.

After dinner, my wife calls a family member she has a major unresolved issue with. During her call, she is screaming and crying hysterically, communicating her feelings.

 

I feel fear and sadness, a jumbly feeling in my upper abdomen. I want to interrupt, and medicate myself by telling her "it's ok, calm down." I feel this, let this pass, and leave her undisturbed to finish her call. Her anguish switches to understanding, and eventually to laughter. After the call she is peaceful and happy.

She mentions afterwards she is very grateful I am working on my issues with my trading tribe.

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and Thank You

Thank you for sharing your process and for inspiring others.

 

 

 

Tears

 

are signs

 

 that we are human

 

and that we are experiencing deeply.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clips:

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/

life_and_style/men/article2811643.ece

 

http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/211756

 

http://www.oldmencrying.com/images/

civilrightstears.jpeg

 

http://www.oldmencrying.com/images/

soldierfunera.jpeg

 

http://www.oldmencrying.com/images/tsunami1.jpg

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

 

Buenos Aires Tribe

Dear Mr. Seykota,

with support from [Name] from [Country] we start a Tribe in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Happy Christmas and kindest regards,

 

 

Welcome !

 

Buenos Aires

 

Argentina

 

 

Wednesday, December 24, 2008 4:19 AM
 

Wishes


Dear Mr. Seykota,

I wish you and your family a Merry Christmas and a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

Yours sincerely,

Thank you.

 

All the best to you and yours.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

 

Associate Progress:

Whipsaw Embracer Counter Trend System


Hello Ed,

Following our telephone conversation on Friday 12 December I have updated the GRAB System research web pages in line with your suggestions.

I am interested in your comments.

Merry Christmas, and thank you for your help and encouragement to date.

Good work.

 

You make some interesting points in a way that communicates thoughts and feelings.

 

I see a few more items you might address.

 

I'd like to place the study on this site.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

 

Paul Potts Sings Opera - Video
 

Ed,

Here's a video for you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DelJrP3P7tA

Thank you for all you do and share.

Thank you for the link.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008


Merry Christmas

and a Wonderful & Prosperous New Year

Hi Ed,

I want to wish you and your family a wonderful Christmas and an enjoyable holiday time together. I wish you the very best for a prosperous new year.

Yours truly,

Thank you for your wishes.

 

All the best to you and yours.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008


SVO-p in Mainstream Writing

 

Ed,


When I learn about TTP, I find SVO-p unnatural and unusual. As I use it more, I notice a class of mainstream writing that uses SVO-p.

Newspaper titles are almost always in SVO-p. "Man Bites Dog" is so much more in the Now then "A Dog was Bitten by a Man."

SVO-p (Subject Verb Object - present tense)
supports clear agreements, accountability, and communication of moment-of-now feelings. 

 

The non-existing past and future are excellent locations in which to park agreements you do not wish to fulfill.

 

In the last election cycle, the candidate, Ron Paul is unique in his high use of SVO-p.

 

His landslide defeat indicates the electorate prefers the medicinally soothing syntactical formula: promises in the future, blame in the past.

 

Video: http://garlinggauge.com/

2007/10/13/best-ron-paul-video-yet/

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

 

Unix ECHO Command 4 Y2K

see previous

 

Ed,


I do not account for the commercial popularity of the MS operating system. Christopher Liddell, the CFO of Microsoft, does.

Unix echo(1) writes the arguments you give it in 1970, Y2K, 2008, 2038 and other years:

http://www.opengroup.org/onlinepubs/

000095399/utilities/echo.html

I wonder if Unix has an EGO command.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008


Happy Holidays

Hi Ed,

I wish you a Happy Holiday Season. May you spend wonderful moments with your family. Thank you for all your support and advice through FAQ.

Sincerely,
 

Thank you.

 

All the best to you and yours.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

 

Bottom Fishing - the Turtle Way - Video

see previous

 

Ed,

 

Here is a video of a master showing how to grab them off the bottom.

http://www.break.com/index/kentuckys-famous-turtle-man.html 

OK. Very snappy presentation.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

 

Merry Christmas

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I wish you an inspirational time with your family and friends! I hope you have a nice Christmas and wish you and your family a happy new year!

Enjoy the time and to get rid of the daily stress :-)

Yours truly,

Thank you.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008


MS Service Packs
 

Ed,

 

I wonder what Microsoft (TM) medicates with Service Packs. I notice that many Windows (R) users remind me of women in abusive relationships.

They say, "It's my fault; I'm not smart enough to understand how he works."

 

They say, "I need to give him another chance. Next time will be better."

 

They say, "He keeps my documents locked up so I cannot share them except with his family, but that's because he cares about me."

 

They say, "He destroyed all my data, but that was because I didn't take good care of him."

The next issue I want to work on: being always right.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.usit.uio.no/it/unix/

unix-kurs_houston/

For all the advantages of Unix. I wonder how you account for the commercial popularity of the MS operating system.

 

Incidentally, the Unix type, time_t is a 32-bit signed integer representing seconds since January 1, 1970. 

 

On January 19, 2038 time_t resets, producing a Unix echo for the Y2K problem.

 

As of 2008, some 30-year mortgages may already calculate incorrectly.  This conundrum may invite an assortment of patches, fixes, kludges and cruft.

 

Cruft:  Grill scrapings from the F&T diner at Kendall Square, Cambridge, MA. Likely from Harvard's Cruft Laboratory, repository for obsolete technical equipment.

 

 

 

Harvard's Computational Legacies

 

include Bill Gates

and Cruft.

 

 

Clip: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cruft

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

 

Patch Attributions

see: Fixing the Source


Ed,

Thank you for catching my sloppiness with attribution. This photo appears on many sites. I cannot find an authoritative source for the image and decide to skimp on research. I look harder now and discover a whole lotta patching going on. I marvel at the wide variety of feelings people pay to fix.

[0] describes the image as nicotine patch;

[1] describes it as insulin patch;

[2] describes it as contraceptive patch;

[3] says it addresses Hypoactive Sexual Desire Disorder and Female Sexual Dysfunction (FKA frigidity);

[4] uses it to sell patches for weight loss and joint pain as well as insect repellent, caffeine and Valerian patches ("Karma patch [sic] will not cure the causes of stress, however it may help you deal with the effects of stress.");

[5] sums it up saying transdermal patches are available to help quit smoking, to ease motion sickness, to provide oral contraception or to infuse hormones into the blood stream to alleviate symptoms of menopause.

[0] http://mookieinhiding.wordpress.com/

2008/01/30/this-should-be-interesting/
[1] http://medicineworld.org/blogs/diabetes/

blog/previous/2005/Dec-22-2005.html
[2] http://www.cmdrc.com/ContraceptiveOptions/
[3] http://www.intrinsa-patch.co.uk/
[4] http://www.healthpatch.co.uk/
[5]http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/

265521/transdermal_patches_how_do_they_

work.html?cat=71


I catch on because I learn from the best.

If I wanted to become a tramp, I would seek information and advicefrom the most successful tramp I could find. If I wanted to become a failure, I would seek advice from men who had never succeeded. If I wanted to succeed in all things, I would look around me for those who are succeeding and do as they have done.

--Joseph Marshall Wade
as quoted in a /Treasury of Wall Street Wisdom/
Edited by Harry D. Schultz and Samson Coslow
as quoted by Jack D. Schwager in /Market Wizards/

In TTP we find that forms are like classes, from which individual stories inherit properties and methods.

 

The patch, like a TTP form, seems to entrain many stories.

 

 

 

The Robin Williams Movie

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-MY2Xnj-4k

 

Link: A Short Movie

About The Actual Person,

Hunter Patch Adams

 

 

 

Clip:  www.Wikipedia.org

 

Monday, December 22, 2008

Merry Christmas


Hi Chief,

Just wanted to thank you again for the support and to wish you and your family a peaceful and enjoyable festive season.


Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year!!!

Thank you.

Monday, December 22, 2008

 

Possible


Ed,

I read your story in the Market Wizards book in 2006 and visited your Trading Tribe Website then. I just re-read the book and am compelled to contact your website to possibly start a "Tribe".

 

The closest one to me is a couple of hours away. There are few who think and feel as I do and I think this is likely a path to finding those like minded individuals, real people seeking what life is supposed to be while being good traders. Maybe create something unique to put together something magical.

Thank you,

I wonder what you mean by the word, possible.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Son Gives Concert

Ed,

 

I give to you a video of my son’s recent piano recital.

Piano Concert

Happy Holidays.

Family is the Essential Tribe. 

 

Successful families tend to produce happy and successful children.

Saturday, December 20, 2008


Fixing the Source


One fix is to open the HTML file in your favorite text editor and remove every occurrence of

 

font-size:x-small;

 

Another fix is to remove 'face="Comic Sans MS"' or replace it with a portable font.

 

 




A Patch is a Fix that Medicates

 

Thank you for the patch, clip and caption.

 

I am implementing the fix for the August and September 2008 issues.

 

I see you are catching on how to write this column. You might consider including an attribution for the clip.

 

"Patch" is a term of art in the software industry.  Microsoft calls really big patches by the name, Service Pack.

 

 

Saturday, December 20, 2008

 

Re-Energizes His Marriage

 

Ed,


I take the hot seat at a Tribe meeting. My issue is "my wife wants to leave me." Members encourage me to feel it. I close my eyes and clench my fists. I hear members shouting in encouragement. They notice that Irub my forehead and encourage me to keep doing it. I notice that in this form I cover my eyes with my hands and can't see. I go through several forms, including trying to curl up in a ball. I feel powerless. I feel worthless. I feel encouragement from Tribe members. I do not achieve release.

I re-read /Trading Tribe/. I see a table of manipulation strategies and k-nots. I realize that I am terrified of experiencing loneliness.

 

I have a huge AHA moment. I see the positive intention of loneliness. We are ultimately alone in this world, but experiencing our boundaries lets us experience our individuality. Being separate also lets us form healthy associations with others. I describe my insight to my wife.

 

She says there is something different about me. She doesn't talk about leaving. I see how my unwilling to experience loneliness led me to feel excruciatingly lonely over the years. I feel happy and content. I see other k-nots I have and look forward to untying them.

My wife complains about a chronic physiological problem. I notice that I do not medicate her with promises that she'll feel better soon as I usually do. I support her and ask her more about her problem. She is annoyed, but tells me more.

 

She describes feelings that accompany the problem, and I have a hunch that she has has a k-not around one of them. I ask her if she wants to explore that feeling, and she agrees. I notice that I don't medicate her by saying she has no reason to experience that feeling. I tell her I see how difficult it is for her to experience it. I encourage her to experience it. She doesn't know the term, but I see that she is at Zero Point.

We experience unbelievable intimacy. We are both looking forward to a future together. I feel happiness. I feel gratitude. I feel that doors have opened in front of me and I can now explore and experience so many feelings I'd denied myself.

Thank you for your book, for this site, for encouraging my local tribe. Thank you for your support and your relentless validation.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

 

How to Pick a Market Bottom - Video


Ed,

 

This skill set might help pick bottoms.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEh8Y--EzdQ

OK.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

 

Wants to Join a Tribe


Hello,


I came across Trading Tribe a few day ago after the suggestion of a friend. I find the approach fascinating and would like to explore it more. I tried contacting the tribe leader in my town but the email seems to be out of service. Do you have other contact information I could use?


Thank you and hope to learn more about TTP soon.

See the Directory link for information on joining and / or starting a Tribe.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

 

re: Inflation Concerns - Money as Debt Video


Hello Mr. Seykota,

Thanks for all that you do! I feel so grateful for your generosity, and that you share your wisdom on the Trading Tribe website.

Below is a link to a short video (approximately 45 minutes in duration) that outlines in a clear and concise manner how "money" works: The video is entitled "Money as Debt". I think you might find it interesting.
 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

 

Thank you for the URL.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Crash Course - Interesting Webinar
 
Ed,

Please note that I identify several inconsistencies in the system results I sent earlier this week. I am working with a friend to iron out these issues and also include the ideas I mentioned in my previous email.

As per previous FAQ contributor’s comments and your response to inflation concerns I attach a link to the Crash Course by Chris Martenson which you may find interesting on the issues of money supply/inflation and the state of the economy:

 

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

I wish you and your family a happy, healthy and peaceful holiday season and all the very best for 2009.

Best regards,

Thank you for the link.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Happy Holidays
 

Ed,

Have a wonderful holiday and New Year Ed. Hopefully you’ll get to enjoy some time with family and friends.

Thank you.

Friday, December 19, 2008

 

Building a System
 

Mr. Ed Seykota,

Thank for you having taken the time to speak to me on the phone. I was very stressed regarding having a phone conversation with you and I blanked out sometimes during our conversation. I could not come up with the application of the silicon carbide pressure sensors.

 

As soon as we got of the phone, I recalled that General Electric needed pressure sensors for application in the oil drilling industry and jet engines. This was the reason for fabricating these sensors.

I have completed Task 1: How much money - How to achieve and have attached it in this e-mail in word and pdf documents. To improve my knowledge, it would be great to receive any comments.

Thank you for your time, I hope to hear from you.

Good work !

 

Your plan assumes you can come up with

an automatic spread trading system and that you have some sort of magic about choosing markets to trade.

 

To the extent that the motivation for these assumptions flows from not having sufficient starting equity, you might try your plan again with this assumption:

 

You come up with a trading system, accept $1,000,000 from client investors and charge your clients a management fee equal to 20% of trading profits.

 

You save half of your income from fees and put the rest in the system along side your clients' money.

Friday, December 19, 2008

 

Inflation Concerns


Hello Ed,

 

I hope you are well, and I wish you a Happy Christmas and prosperous New year. 0% interest rates there in USA and 2% here in England?

 

Its all very interesting now, the money printing process is getting crazy. The (incompetent) government here is "helping" businesses and banks with this printed money, and increasing overseas debt in times when we really cant be doing this.

 

Our idiot prime minister intends to borrow another £1 trillion over the next two years. Easy credit is what caused these problems to arise in the first place and giving more easy credit at the expense of our currency collapsing and the tax payers money is surely madness?

 

25% of my mortgage is on a base rate tracker so its likely I will be paying around 1% interest shortly if all the forecasts are right, but I believe this money printing will lead to serious inflationary pressures 2-3 years ahead and to curb this effect the government will have to raise rates to perhaps double figure levels.

 

Based on the above situation I decided to increase drastically the amount I over pay on my mortgages, as high interest rates coming are not something I am looking forward to, so naturally want to reduce my mortgages as fast as possible. (I have computed that 21% of weekly (new account high) trading profits are to be withdrawn to enable the fastest repayment of mortgages).

 

What's annoying me so much is the politicians, who's main objective is to be popular and get voted in for a second term rather than to benefit the country that they are supposed to be serving. I see so many flaws in modern society structure and wonder how such stupid models could ever be allowed to get implemented.

 

People with a real understanding of economics (such as yourself ) are rarely seem to be in the public eye and the benefit of their wisdom goes unnoticed.

 

Conversely those with poor knowledge of economics but with a gift of public speaking, are the ones making the decisions. The world as a whole has had enough experiences of booms and busts to know they are doing things seriously wrong, but have failed to learn the lessons.

 

My first year of trading was a boom and bust, and after analyzing my results I was able to avoid wipe outs, without avoiding winning and became a very low risk- high profit trader with good statistics to my credit.

 

I wonder, if I can learn not to wipe out AND to win consistently, then why cant the politicians? Great minds of intelligence such as yourself, Mark Faber, Jim Rogers, George Soros etc who have proved they can consistently make money, would be ideal candidates for running economies instead of the brainless cretins who were voted for.

 

Another interesting conversation which I had with a friend was about voting competence in which he suggested people must have to pass an examination before being allowed to vote, and this would help to elect the most suitable person to run countries. I told him this would likely be rejected as people (Politicians) would say its how fascism starts.

 

The balls in the bag experiment conducted once upon a time was most interesting. A bag containing a large number of balls was displayed and 1000 people we asked to guess the number of balls inside it. Although many guesses were wildly inaccurate the average of all the guesses when calculated was within 2 balls of the exact total.

 

This concept is maybe a better way to decide on important financial decisions, and if one hundred proven economists were elected to decide things, we would likely have a much smoother, stable and prosperous economy.

 

All said and done, trading is pretty simple at the moment and these are easy times for trend following. In the UK there are plenty of nice trending short and long opportunities, some smaller stocks still in seemingly terminal death declines as well as some strongly recovering up trends. I am around 80-20% skewed on the short side mostly in small caps.

 

If you have time, I would be interested to hear your opinions about inflation in US and UK. Thanks for your previous response to my 1929 comments, and your great site.

 

Kind regards.

Thank you for sharing your concerns.  I am currently working on a book about these kinds of things. I suspect Trend Traders are about to get the ride of a lifetime.

 

 

The Broad Money Supply

contracts during the credit contraction.

 

 

 

30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rates Fall

 

Scales: 5-20 Percent / 1970-2010

Shading indicates official recessions.

 

 

 

Milton Friedman

 

shows money supply is the key

to understanding inflation.

 

 

 

Many Studies Confirm Milton Friedman's Ideas

 

Green: Money Supply

Black: Inflation

 

 

 

The Money Supply is Expanding

at a rate without precedent.

 

St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (ABMBNS)

Scales: $ Billions / 1988 - 2008

 

 

 

The CRB Spot Index

 

 is forming a classic

return-to-breakout pattern.

 

 

Clips:

 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

 

CRB

 

http://robkremer.blogspot.com/2008/07/

milton-friedmans-96th-birthday.html

 

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/

images/2007/10/04/m2m3_cpi_money_supply_

and_inflation.png

 

http://www.plusev.ca/tag/money-supply/

December 18, 2008

 

Christmas Feelings - Video

Ed,

Usually I do not watch and listen to emails, such as this one, more than once. I have already watched and listened to this email three times.

Feliz Navidad,

The Paintings: "Winter Memories"
The Music: Trans-Siberian Orchestra

Thank you for the clip.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

 

Pushing It

 

Ed,


My year to date performance is up 2000+ %.

 

On a calendar basis I'm up 5000+ %.

 

O.K. so I pushed it a little, but you can't get that in the bank.

 

In gratitude to Ed Seykota, please link to the August 19, 2003 posting titled "My dear Friend Ed."

 

It say's thing's better then I can.

 

Merry Christmas !

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <pushing> to Tribe.

 

 

 

 

Things That You Push

 

 

 

Have a Tendency

 

 

 

To Push Back

 

 

 

When You Least Expect It.

 

 

 

Clips:

 

http://www.lahutchinson.co.uk/paintings.html

 

http://travel.mongabay.com/gabon/

images/gabon_2043.html

 

http://www.uaf.edu/water/faculty/nolan/

personal/turner/turner_050817.htm

 

http://www.carr.org/~scottr/2002/03_02/images/sam%20pushing%20ball.jpg

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

 

Triebwerk

 

Ed,

 

I notice that many contributors to FAQ are from outside the United States. I have a hunch that many of them speak German. I see the phrase "tribe work" appear frequently in FAQ. I remember that "Triebwerk" is German for "engine" or "propulsion system."

I look forward to my second Tribe meeting tomorrow with excitement.

OK.

 

 

Triebwerk

 

Clip: http://www.enginereplacementofatlanta.com/

Monday, December 15, 2008

 

Font Size (September 24 post)

 

Hi Ed,

I spend more time with the FAQ tonight. I read your responses to contributors. I have an AHA moment. I realize that a better response to your email is "I wonder if you could tell me in more detail what you want this patch to achieve."

Thank you for helping me achieve this moment.

I notice a difference between the renderings by Firefox and MS Internet Explorer.

 

I am not clear how to fix the source.

 

Monday, December 15, 2008


Thank You

 

Ed,

Thank you for your support and sharing. Best wishes for you and your family.

Happy holidays,

You are welcome.

Monday, December 15, 2008

 

Font Size - September 24 post

 

Hi Ed,


Thank you for posting this and my other comment to the FAQ. I reflect on my experience at TPP and a hotseat I had Thursday before last. I plan to attend next meeting of that tribe, this Thursday.

I am not sure I understand your question about a patch. It seems that you use a Microsoft tool to edit the FAQ, perhaps Front Page. I have no experience with Microsoft Web-authoring tools.

 

For my own pages, I find that the less I fiddle with font faces and font sizes, the better I like them. I try to limit myself to specifying serif /sans and "smaller" or "larger." I find that if I make my declarations generic and avoid specific font names, my results are more portable and less susceptible to different interpretations by different browsers. If you are interested, the relevant part of the CSS recommendation lives at

 

 http://www.w3.org/TR/CSS21/

fonts.html#font-size-props



I notice that in more recent pages, you use size="2" instead of "x-small." Mozilla and IE display this similarly, though the left column's font is still smaller than I find comfortable. I expect that is the size that you intended for your pages, however.

Please let me know if I misunderstood what you meant about a patch. I am glad to answer any questions about this. I find your FAQ very helpful. I am happy to contribute to it what I can.

I am not clear how to fix the source.

 

 

Monday, December 15, 2008

 

Pseudo Code

 

Hi Ed, thanks for pseudo-code. That is what I got:
 

loop
{
... read next day
... all_time_high = Max(all_time_high, new_high);
... Dr_Dn = all_time_high - current price;
... DD_Current = Dr-Dn / all_time_high;
... DD = max(DD, DD_Current);
}

But now a new question. Are all these variables (all_time_high, new_high, current price) prices (from ohlc) of the undelying instrument, or their equity or equity at those prices?

 

Thanks in advance,

You might consider taking your feelings about <doing the math> to Tribe.