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January 01 - 31, 2008

 

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Note: The intention of inclusion of charts in FAQ is to illustrate trading principles - The appearance of a chart does not imply any kind of indication or recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out of any positions.

 

 

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Tue, 29 Jan 2008

 

Magazine Covers

Hey Ed,

I've just recently discovered this site, but I've read most of FAQs from the beginning. It's great. My life is still a mess, but at least I see it from a new perspective.

Anyway, I've seen you display magazine covers as an example of market over-exuberance, but on wed, 3 Oct 2007 (Associate Program - Learning to Trade Feelings About Short-Term Trading), the author seems to imply that you use magazine / newspaper covers to lighten your position.

"On [date] I hear from Ed that Crude and Gold are now being talked about on the front page of the WSJ and that his experience is that this might make for a very choppy market."

Is Ed Seykota trying to predict the non-existing future? It's hard to tell the exact dates from the chart that's depicted, but at the point of the first circle, there was no way to tell that the trend was over. It hadn't even broken any trend-line yet. In fact, I doubt any long term trend following system would generate a sell signal at ANY point in that chart. (maybe a 'lighten position' signal)

 

This implies to me that you ARE using fundamental analysis and trying to outguess the market. Of course, you were right about the choppiness, but about a week later oil was breaking out again.

So my question is, was the 'lightening-up' based on fundamental or technical indicators?

And, for the record, if Ed Seykota were to tell me that he was lightening up on oil, trend or not, I would sell too.

Thank you for sharing your insights.

 

You are correct. Trend followers do not attempt to predict the markets in the sense of calling price objectives or using limit orders to get in and out of positions.

 

Occasionally, I may take a volatility vacation, during which I may reduce some positions and train my focus on interests other than the market.

 

This refreshing practice is, perhaps, an essential element in my maintaining a commitment to trading trends since 1969 and still remaining occasionally sane.

 

Then again, it might be a form of medication.  I suppose I can take my feelings about <volatility> to Tribe for another look.

 

 

 

Theoretical Volatility:

Close-to-Close Method

 

 

 

Theoretical Volatility:

Extreme Value Method

 

 

 

Theoretical Volatility:

Black-Scholes Method

 

 

 

 

Actual Volatility

 

 

 

Volatility attends

 

most of the profit

most of the risk

 

and

 

most of the wear on nerves.

 

 

Clips:

www.linnsoft.com/tour/volatility.htm

http://squidoptions.com/category/ranting/

 

Mon, 28 Jan 2008

 

System Ideas


Hi Ed!

I have always wondered about your system. I have recently listened to an audio-book of Alexander Elder which I like. He speaks about triple screen systems which combines a long term trend following system and a short term oscillator indicator. The longer term shows the direction of the trade, and the short term waits for pull-backs in the trend. After both indicators are fulfilled, a entry order is entered above (if long term uptrend) yesterdays high and SL might be placed below yesterdays low.

I have always restricted my thought of a trend follower to buy strength when the strength is peaking (as a new 40 day high or similar), but now I see that I can buy strength at more rewarding levels. A couple of things have lasted on my mind from your earlier responses and the market wizard book (how I view it)
 

1. You want to take the trend when it is so obvious
that people start to think its not going any further.
 

2. You always have your entry above the market (if
buying)
 

3. You started out with a simple system that was inspired by Donchian. It might have been a 20 day breakout or similar. Now you have updated your system to take entry when a "special pattern" shows up. That special pattern might be some kind of minor strength within the larger trend.
 

4. Donchian speaks about adding to a trend when a key reversal takes place, however small it is.
 

5. Risk management is very important. Rather risk to
little than too much.
 

6. I have always thought that by keep reading the FAQ on the TTP page I will sooner or later get some smart hints by you. They are not obvious, but you seldom put the answer to a question but rather open up for reasoning.

If I add all of this I come to the conclusion that your system might have similarities to Elders. Elder is, apart from you, describing his system in details.

 

Earlier I skipped systems that was waiting for retracements. Now I am more aware of risk / return. Also the Turtles showed their exact system but I'm not trading that system anyway (but I have tried similar ones and used some of their ideas). Maybe I wouldn't trade your system even if you showed it.

I still think it is inspiring to know that there are systems out there, like yours, that are extremely profitable. What one man can do, another man can!

Best regards,

Your trading system comprises (1) the mathematical system and (2) your ability to follow the math.

 

You might consider paying attention to both.

Sun, 27 Jan 2008


Supporting Ed's Results

Ed,

Thank you for sending your progress report.

I feel good about this process and the support and camaraderie that is developing. I am thankful for your guidance at our meeting and your ongoing contribution to everyone’s development.

I judge that you are already looking more healthy and trimmer than when I saw you last year and looking more like what I judge a Leader / Winner to look like. I feel more confident that my involvement with your 'feeling technologies' are well founded and will produce results. I have a positive feeling of anticipation surrounding you reaching your target weight and support your efforts in dieting and exercise.

I reflect on you aiming for a specific target weight, standardized for your height and age and wonder if we are not all different and that you might record how you feel at various weights along the way.

I look forward to you recording your YouTube video and enjoying the results.

I look forward to progress by all tribe members.

I sincerely thank you for your giving.

Best Wishes,

Thank you for your support.

Sun, 27 Jan 2008


My Results - Complete on the Book
 

Dear Ed,


I complete the reading of the recommended book. I underestimated the task but feel good about meeting the Sunday night deadline and feel excited about this whole process and the tribes support.

I definitely gain clarity about trading and the learning curve that lies before me. This brings up mixed feelings for me as I have already spent many tens of thousands of hours aiming for competence in this arena and it feels overwhelming. I am uncertain whether the overall ROI that will be required is worth the effort. On the plus side however, I seem to be drawn to it and enjoy gaining new knowledge and learning new skills and the challenge excites me.

I decide to reflect on the book and my thoughts before setting myself a new trading task/goal. My hunch at this stage is to investigate an unfamiliar market such as commodity futures - I've only ever traded and studied stocks and stock indices.

I see emails come in from each of you and this gives me a warm feeling of camaraderie and support.

I thank you sincerely for your support.

Best Wishes,

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sun, 27 Jan 2008

 

Addictions


Ed,

Years ago I took a seminar where we chose a project to complete by the end of the program and had to report our progress every week to our coach. Each week we were to report "specific measurable results."
 

Specific - something you define that moves the project forward. It must be easily communicated so you can tell someone in just a few words and they clearly get what you are talking about.
 

Measurable results - something that can be measured. Example: I will make the world a better place - NO PASS. I will smile at 5 people I do not know and engage 2 strangers in a conversation
about what they love about their life by 7:00 pm Friday - PASS.

 

I thought the phrase clearly communicated the desired results.What you are doing reminded me of this and I thought I would pass it on to see if you can use any of it.

You mentioned your new book includes a lot about addictions. Years ago I spotted a book on the end cap at the grocery store and felt the urge to buy it. The title of the book is " And forgive us our debts" by George Moore.


The story is about an accountant that had a lot of financial problems in his life and how he went bankrupt, wound up in AA etc. The thing I found most interesting about the book was his observation after getting his life in order. He noted how people seem to cure one addition and then develop another over and over again. This led him to the conclusion that it was not one specific thing they were addicted to but that they were addicted to the STRESS that the other addictions created. As these people were growing up they were exposed to constant stress in their lives and when things are calm and going well for them it feels out of sorts so they screw things up to feel normal.

 

This felt familiar to me as my childhood was very stressful for me and explained some of my own actions and the actions of many people I have known in my life.


The rest of the book is how to work through your stuff and is mostly the standard things you find in self help books but the part about the stress being the engine that runs the other addictions I had never read before.


If you are interested in reading this book just let me know and I will send it to you .

On the drive home from the Tribe meeting, I thought about what you said about mentors and looked back on my life. I realized how all my life there have been people that have helped me, given me tips and shown me the way.


I help others all the time but am reluctant to ask for help myself. The typical "do it myself-er". I also realized that I have been working on trading for years and years without results and I would be foolish to not take the offer of the associates program and full advantage of the TTP website. Why it took this long to realize this I do not know. I must have needed a mentor to point out even this simple fact to me. So I filled out the application
and will get started. Thank you and have a great week.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

Yes, The "positive intention" of an addiction is typically to medicate feelings about a right livelihood issue.

 

 

 

Addictions Can Take Many Forms

 

and employ various substances

and / or situations.

 

Addictions typically tend to medicate

deeper issues.

 

Once you flatten the real issue,

the addiction loses meaning.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.health24.com/sex/Graphics/1253-3258,31843.asp

Sun, 27 Jan 2008

 

AHA - Sees Eating Pattern

 

Ed,

 

The toughest thing of all my commitments has been lowering my Dr Pepper intake.

 

Where I used to drink 1 or 2 per day, I cut down to 2 total this week. I noticed that when I eat lunch, what ever I order is more than it takes to make me full. I do not want to throw it away and it is too little to take home or save for later so I go ahead and eat it although I am already full.

 

About an hour later my stomach is upset so I drink a Dr Pepper to settle my stomach. I will strive to stop eating when ever I feel full next week and see what difference that makes. I have been doing this for years and that accounts for the physical shape I am in.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sun, 27 Jan 2008

 

Progress - Quicken and Trading Plan

 

Ed,

 

Here is my progress report on the two areas of commitment:

(1) I have spent several hours in the last week delving into the mess which is our household financial accounts in Quicken. I can now run the program from my laptop connecting to the database on our server, 2007 transactions are categorized into income and expense accounts, I set up cash accounts to account for cash spending transactions and I create an accurate statement of net worth as of the end of 2007 (8.4% increase). There is still room for improvement in our accounting system. Diving into the process has caused friction with my wife - we cannot seem to have a dialog about it without her raising her voice in volume and pitch, but my attention and intention to getting it straightened out has motivated some action on her part as well to that end. There's yet some voltage there that needs to be discharged or put to work.

(2) I have gotten a start on my trading plan development - have updated balances in my portfolio tracking spreadsheet; have not yet worked out the details of planning my trades on [website]  trading ideas. I do not yet feel prepared yet to start taking trades but I commit to continue making progress towards that goal.

I feel good about the accomplishments of this week. Thank you, comrade warriors, for helping me clarify my desire to improve on this front, and for your support in holding me accountable to my word and intention.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sun, 27 Jan 2008

 

Studies Liquidity and Activity


Hi Ed,

Happy New Year. I hope you and yours had a wonderful holiday season.

Thought you might like this.

 

Just a rough quick look at activity and liquidity across futures for the end of 2007. I am going to do this for the end of each year back going to 1970 including inactive (now, not then) futures. Perhaps in this way my portfolio selection algorithm won't suffer survivorship bias in the back tests.

I hope you are indeed well and in great spirits.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sat, 26 Jan 2008

 

My Results - Program, Exercise, Food & Music



Dear Ed,

This is to congratulate those of you who are complying with the agreement to report progress, to remind the others to get with the program, and to report my progress.

Computer Program: Currently solves all problems.


Exercise: Complete on first meeting with trainer and workout in gym.

Food: I am continuing with healthy eating - my trainer advises me to eat more so I can increase my upper-body musculature. He tells me to anticipate some weight gain while I build upper body muscle, and then more weight reduction.


Music: My band announces a conflict and cannot show. I am currently assembling a band.

Thank you for sharing your process.
 

Sat, 26 Jan 2008

 

Mathemagics - a Video


Amazing mathematical wizard doing a stage act with calculations. He teaches math at a small college but tries to entertain and motivate his students in unusual ways. He can do complex calculations mentally before a calculator can. At the end, he explains how he does it.

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/199
 

Thank you for the link.

Sat, 26 Jan 2008

 

Jazzed Banjo - A Video


Ed,

If I wanted to play the banjo like Bela Fleck, I'd ask Bela Fleck to mentor me. If I didn't know whom to model, I'd say, "Hey, Ed! Who's a good banjo mentor?," and you might say, "Bela Fleck."

You might consider asking some friends, "Hey! Who's a good 'Boy, Am I Ever Emotionally Jazzed!' mentor?"

I suppose, if I were to wish to play continual jazz with my emotions, I might take your suggestions.

 

I also like bluegrass, country, classical , R&B, rock, folk and sometimes silence.

Sat, 26 Jan 2008

 

My Results - Abandoning Romance


My results:


I am abandoning the commitment I made regarding romance. I have done well in telling 5-6 folks that I am not buying the BMW until the IPO or I have the resources to pay for it in cash.


Thanks,

You might consider taking your feelings about <making and breaking agreements> to Tribe.

Sat, 26 Jan 2008

 

My Results -

Connecting with Wife, Relaxing & Learning Spanish

 

Ed,

The rocks process is amazing. I talk to my wife twice since our meeting on Sunday. The conversations are long and healthy. I do not get upset or angry at any obvious questions. Instead I try to find the positive intention of simple questions. I carry my resource rock with me all the time and press it when confronted with mundane questions and use my new resources to handle the situation at hand. I find I am more relaxed than before and do not entertain drama.

I find a Spanish instructor and my first Spanish class
for beginners is next Wednesday at 8pm.

Sincerely Yours,

Thank you for sharing your process.

Fri, 25 Jan 2008

 

Two Rules for Happy Living

 

Ed,


There are two rules for happy living according to L. Ron Hubbard

One: Be able to experience anything.

Two: Cause only those things which others are able to experience easily.

Man has had many golden rules. The Buddhist rule of "Do unto others as you would have these others do unto you" has been repeated often in other religions. But such golden rules, while they served to advance man above the animal, resulted in no sure sanity, success or happiness. Such a golden rule gives only the cause-point (the origination point), or at best the reflexive effect-point (the receipt point). This is a self-done-to-self thing and tends to put all on obsessive cause.... It gives no thought to what one does about the things done to one by others not so indoctrinated.

How does one handle the evil things done to him? It is not told in the Buddhist rule.

So long as one fears or suffers from the effect of violence, one will have violence against him. When one can experience exactly what is being done to one, ah, magic, it does not happen!

How to be happy in this universe is a problem few prophets or sages have dared contemplate directly. We find them "handling" the problem of happiness by assuring us that man is doomed to suffering. They seek not to tell us how to be happy but how to endure being unhappy. Such casual assumption of the impossibility of happiness has led us to ignore any real examination of ways to be happy. Thus, we have floundered forward toward a negative goal—get rid of all the unhappiness on Earth and one would have a livable Earth. (Confront means to face something without flinching or avoiding.) If one seeks to get rid of something continually, one admits continually he cannot confront it—and thus everyone went downhill. Life became a dwindling spiral of more things we could not confront. And thus we went toward blindness and unhappiness. To be happy, one only must be able to confront, which is to say, experience, those things that are.

Unhappiness is only this: the inability to confront that which is.

Hence, (1) Be able to experience anything.

The effect side of life deserves great consideration. The self-caused side also deserves examination.

To create only those effects which others could easily experience gives us a clean new rule of living. For if one does, then what might he do that he must withhold from others? There is no reason to withhold his own actions or regret them (same thing) if one's own actions are easily experienced by others. This is a sweeping test (and definition) of good conduct—to do only those things which others can experience.

If you examine your life, you will find you are bothered only by those actions a person did which others were not able to receive. Hence a person's life can become a hodgepodge of violence withheld, which pulls in, then, the violence others caused.

The more actions a person emanated which could not be experienced by others, the worse a person's life became. Recognizing that he was bad cause or that there were too many bad causes already, a person ceased causing things—an unhappy state of being.
(Mis-emotion means an emotion or emotional reaction that is inappropriate to the present time situation.) Pain, mis-emotion, unconsciousness, insanity—all result from causing things others could not experience easily. The reach–withhold phenomenon is the basis of all these things. When one sought to reach in such a way as to make it impossible for another to experience, one did not reach, then, did he? To "reach" with a gun against a person who is unwilling to be shot is not to reach the person, but a protest. All bad reaches never reached. So there was no communication, and the end result was a withhold by the person reaching. This reach–withhold became at last, an inability to reach—therefore, low communication, low reality, low affinity.

Communication is one means of reaching others. So, if one is unable to reach, one's ability to communicate will be low; and reality will be low, because if one is unable to communicate, he won't really get to know about others; and with knowing little or nothing about others, one doesn't have any feeling about them either, thus one's affinity will be low. Affinity, reality and communication work together; and if one of these three is high, the other two will be also; but if one is low, so will the others be low.
All bad acts, then, are those acts which cannot be easily experienced at the target end.

On this definition, let us review our own "bad acts." Which ones were bad? Only those that could not be easily experienced by another were bad. Thus, which of society's favorite bad acts are bad? Acts of real violence resulting in pain, unconsciousness, insanity and heavy loss could at this time be considered bad. Well, what other acts of yours do you consider "bad"? The things which you have done which you could not easily, yourself, experience were bad. But the things which you have done which you, yourself, could have experienced, had they been done to you, were not bad. That certainly changes one's view of things!

I wonder if you can provide some examples of how you are making out personally by applying these rules consistently in your own life.

Fri, 25 Jan 2008

 

Scold


Hi, Ed!

If any Joy, Happiness, or Unmitigated Bliss unexpectedly grabs you by the ass today and begs to be loved, savored, caressed, fondled, cuddled, played with or in any other way kept around for awhile, I promise to severely scold anyone who tries to punish you for having some fun with it. Don't worry, be happy!

You might consider taking your feelings about <scolding> to Tribe.

 

 

Scolding

 

can become a form of medication

 

for both the scolder

and the scoldee.

 

 

Clip: http://fakesteve.blogspot.com/

2007_12_01_archive.html

Fri, 25 Jan 2008


Bar Stool Economics

 

Ed,

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:


The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.


So, that's what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. 'Since you are all such good customers, he said, 'I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.


The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free.


What about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?'
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man Would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner Suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.!

And so:

The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).


Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.


'I only got a dollar out of the $20,'declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,' but he got $10!'

'Yeah, that's right,' exclaimed the fifth man. 'I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got ten times more than I!'

'That's true!!' shouted the seventh man. 'Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!'

'Wait a minute,' yelled the first four men in unison. 'We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!'

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine Sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

You might consider taking your feelings about <it's not fair> to Tribe.

Thu, 24 Jan 2008

 

My Results - Sell the Car & Stop Drinking
 

Ed,


I am sending my results tonight because we are going out of town this weekend and I want to make sure to get them in before Sunday 6:00pm.

My results:


What I said I would do: Get Mustang running and post it on the internet for sale.


What I produced: Drained the gas out of the tank and refilled with fresh fuel. Cleaned carburetor. Charged battery and got it to run again. ITS ALIVE!
Listed for sale on 1 website and will list on at least 1 more by Monday 10:00 pm.


What I said I would do: Drink no more than 2 caffeinated drinks a week. I need to re-promise as this does not work for me.

 
What I am willing to commit to: I will limit myself to 1 soft drink per week but will keep my morning coffee. I have already had my 1 Dr Pepper for the week.


I don't remember committing to a specific result for trading but on the drive home from Austin Sunday night I thought about what Ed said and realized that all along the way in my life I have had people who mentored me and helped me along. I also realized that it would be foolish for me not to take the opportunity that Ed has presented in the TT Associates program and continue trying to "do it myself". So I have completed and sent in the application to the TTAssociates program tonight.

Have a great week!

Thank you for sharing your process.

Wed, 23 Jan 2008

 

Money Management Question


Hello Ed,

Are you managing money these days or just trading your personal account? If managing money, what is the minimum investment?

I consider more than the amount of money a person wishes to invest in order to determine if we might be a good fit.

Tue, 22 Jan 2008

 

Rome TT

 

Ed,

 


I have started a new TT in Rome, Italy.


Can I register it on your site so to let it grow?

Yes. See Tribe Directory, above, for instructions.

Tue, 22 Jan 2008

 

Risk and Fear


Hi Ed,

I experienced a couple new emotions tonight which I wanted to share. Well actually one - fear. I go into tomorrow positioned quite well - net short (re: short outnumber long as % of portfolio 3-1) and it appears we will have a down open.

Still I am scared of a market that can fall 15% over two or three sessions internationally. I fear a market where I watch my friends lose 50% of their capital in a few days. I question how much I know. Mainly, am I really ready to ride a bear just as I would a bull or am I not really cut out for this.

For me - I guess today I realized that making money is not the test of whether or not I am cut out to trade, the new test is whether I can handle gains and losses emotionally. I guess I am not as ready as I thought.

Fifty-percent in a couple days seems a little steep to me. Your friends might consider doing some back-testing to come up with some risk control methods.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <taking big risks> to Tribe.

 

 

When Risk is Out of Line

with reward

 

it may indicate

a set-up for high drama.

 

 

Clip: http://www.rmdmarketing.co.uk/approach.html

Tue, 22 Jan 2008


Russian SU-30 - A Video


Hi, Ed

How do you spell Bernoulli in Russian? This is an amazing video. I don't see how they prevent compressor stalls, which occur when the air moving through the turbine is disrupted. Going backwards would definitely not be following the trend.

I believe the F-22 might be capable of this type of flight, or at least might be able to combat the SU-30 on fairly even terms, but I don't believe anything else in the US arsenal could come close.

 

click here for WMV file

Thank you for the clip.

Tue, 22 Jan 2008


Sadness and Frustration


Hello Ed!

I hope this email finds you in good health as you haven’t answered FAQ for a long time. Maybe you have an out-time from writing FAQ and I hope you enjoy it.

Before a few weeks I read your posts about controlling others and it hit a nerve! I seem to have an issue about expecting other people to do certain things.

 

At this moment I expect my girlfriend to spend more time with me. She is busy because she will finish school in a few months, does sports and so on. As we don’t see each other as often as I wish I take it personally and I am a little bit offended.

 

I phone with her and we have a nice talk at the beginning but at the end I begin to tease her because of the time issue and we end the telethon call with a weird feeling. It seems to be a pattern of mine to expect things and to be offended and teasing when the things don’t move as I expect them to do.

When she doesn’t say that she misses me or that she wants to spend time with me or is busy or doesn’t get intimate I get a little bit anxious that our relationship might be not in order.

I also feel sadness in between, sometimes without a reason (the fundamentalist in me).


Thanks Ed!

You might consider taking your feelings of <sadness and frustration> to Tribe.

 

 

 

If You are Unwilling

to experience sadness and frustration

 

you are likely to set people up

as excuses to experience them.

 

 

Clip: http://howtosplitanatom.com/news/

how-to-blog-2/

Sun, 20 Jan 2008

 

New tribe in New Hampshire

Hi Ed,

I hope you are well!

 

I read an old FAQ post from Thu, 22 May 2003: Nothing Works

Ed says:


“Joining a Tribe or forming one, and experiencing the feelings of inadequacy pass from Fred to CM ... might be simpler than having to act it out over and over.”


Replace inadequacy with any felling, I get it – AHA!

Please accept my application for a new Tribe in Southern New Hampshire

Thank you for the body of work and thank you to the tribe!

 

 

Welcome !

 

Amherst,

New Hampshire

Fri, 18 Jan 2008

 

Financial Website Essentials


Hi, Ed

I am actively working on launching a financial data website and was hoping to get some input. I am interested to know what you look for and like on financial websites? Any ideas or comments and suggestions would be great.

Open, High, Low and Close.

Fri, 18 Jan 2008

 

I'll be Watching You Ben Bernanke - A Video

Ed,


I think you might enjoy this video Ed.

http://goldenticker.wordpress.com/

2008/01/17/well-be-watching-you-

ben-bernanke-music-video/

Thank you for the link.

Fri, 18 Jan 2008

 

Men's and Women's Brains - A Video

 

Ed,

 

You might enjoy this video. brains.

http://marriageresourcecenter.org/

videogallery/4/lg/VideoWidget8.htm

Thank you for the link.

Thu, 17 Jan 2008

 

Banjo - A Video

 

Ed,

 

Here is a YouTube link to Seldom Scene - I Know You Rider - Cleveland 1991.

The banjo solo is kick ass!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9huPI7lOXA

Thank you for the link.

Tue, 15 Jan 2008

 

Debt as Money - A Video

 


Ed,

I learn something new everyday. I thought you might like this video.


http://video.google.com/videoplay?

docid=-9050474362583451279&q=genre%

3Adocumentary&total=253540&start=60&num=

10&so=0&type=search&plindex=4
 

Thank you for the link.

Tue, 15 Jan 2008

 

Stock Cannot Fall

 

Ed,

 

See the Wall Street Journal for today.

 

Citi CEO Makes Interesting Offer.

By BRETT ARENDS

"At around $27, Citigroup stock has now fallen more than 50% from the all-time peak reached barely 12 months ago. The shares literally cannot fall as far as they have already, even if they were to go to zero.

So in a technical sense, the worst is already past. The question remains whether that is also true in a meaningful way, and whether we're near the bottom."

 

I don't see how the worst is past.  The shares can go to zero.

 

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1200419729

26291661.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

I wonder what the CEO means by "technical sense."  Most of the technicians I know sense a downtrend.

 

 

 

CIT Weekly Chart

 

 

 

CIT Daily Chart

 

 

Tue, 15 Jan 2008

 

Bull Fights


This k-not in my back is acting up since our tribe meeting. Same spot as always, left side of my middle back.

 

The first few times, I go with it for a while then stop. But today, I decide to take it farther. What does it want me to do? Bend backwards, to the left and make a painful face. I ask myself why I keep stopping, the response, "because it hurts too much."

 

What am I afraid is going to happen? "Something might burst." Ok. Well this time, I'm going to take it up and try to get to know the feeling. It feels sharp, a spike, only one. It feels like an arrow. My mind instantly flashes back to a bull fight I saw when I was 7.

 

The thing that disturbs me, then and now, is that they would put arrows in the bull's back to make it a fair fight. This feels like an arrow in my back. I'm thinking about my brother. I'm thinking about me spilling my drinks when I was a kid and we used to go out to dinner.

 

I'm thinking, why do I want to make it a fair fight with him? I no longer think I was spilling my drinks for my parents attention, I think it was for my brother's.

 

My older brother is the coolest kid in the world when I was small. The messages he sends, his approval, are just as important as my parent's. My parent's said, "be good." My brother said, "go crazy, have fun."

 

The two messages together create my cycle.

 

I'm trying now to relax. I can't shake the pain in my back. So I intensify it. All the way up. I make a sweeping motion with my hand (knocking over the glass) and it releases. I do this some more. Now I'm enjoying it. I still don't understand the bull fight.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Mon, 14 Jan 2008

 

Medicinal Rock versus Resources Rock

Hi Ed!

How do you define the difference between Medicinal rock and Resources rock? I try to come up with some definitions. Funny, when I wrote that line I understood what you were going to answer ("You might want to take your feelings regarding definitions to the hotseat!").

 

I can imagine the situation when I read your answer and begin to understand that, what does it matter if I have a definition? I feel when I apply a medicinal rock. One behavior can be a medicinal rock in one situation and a resources rock in another situation.

 

Do I have to know when it is medicinal or not? I now remember the line you wrote me to take "my feelings of trying to figure it all out" to the tribe. Anyway, here are some examples that comes to my mind when I try to separate them:

1. A medicinal rock is something you do to avoid your feelings. A resources rock is a behavior you do to avoid drama.

2. Medicinal rock behavior is something that feels bad afterwards while the resources rock behavior feels good afterwards. "Good" can be replaced with "correct" or "in line with right livelihood".

3. The resources rock is something that is created through the rocks process. (Sounds unlikely that only people who have tried the rocks process are using what you call a resources rock throughout their lives.)

I remember when we first tried out the resources rock. We label our rocks and I understood you really thought we did it all wrong. I can still not
understand how something can be completely different if you apply the rocks process. Or maybe I can. If I simply say that I want to react to a situation in a specific way, I guess it's hard to carry out. But if
the situation is role-played and personalized it might
get better. Yes, I agree.

Ok, that was a snapshot from my thoughts right now.

You might consider viewing your search for the "right way" as medication for your feelings about committing to some form of right livelihood.

Sun, 13 Jan 2008

 

Breathwork


Did a search on internet and for books on breath work and Vivation: None seem to describe how to do it. Any suggestions?

I suggest you re-write your note in SVO-p.

 

When you put yourself in the sentence and put the sentence in the now, you may find yourself breathing more easily.

Sun, 13 Jan 2008

 

No Time - Article

 

Ed,

 

Max Planck Institute declares "Time Does Not Exist"

http://discovermagazine.com/2007/jun/in-no-time
 

Well, it's about time.

Sat, 12 Jan 2008

 

Working Diligently

 

It's such a beautiful day outside today


Dear Ed,

Thank you very much for your response regarding choppy markets. I suppose sometimes people rationalize their feelings and the "choppy markets" hypothesis could be an example of this.

I myself am working through a textbook on C#, trying to gain a foothold on programming to build back-testing software and eventually a fully-automated, trend-following system.

 

I thank you so much for the guidance you so willingly provide TTP participants and onlookers; moreover, your example has influenced me to work diligently to be a successful trend follower and I am dedicated to someday using my "winnings" to help brighten the livelihoods of others.

Peace!

Thank you for sharing your process.

Wed, 9 Jan 2008

 

Entitlement

 

Ed,

 

Ed Says: Major Up-Trends give heroic top-pickers many opportunities to try to be right.


With any system, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. If you stick with a sound system, you are likely to emerge as a net winner after a series of many trials.


When I demonstrate some mastery of my own process in this area I may feel more competent to advise others.



Ed, do you think that top picking and bottom picking are the same thing? While I myself seemingly have a tendency to top picking, I notice that a friend of mine has a tendency to bottom picking.

Over the past weeks I read some newsletters from some "experts" and I noticed that most of them have a tendency to buy pullbacks into an uptrend or sell rallies into a downtrend. That's a common discretionary approach. If they are right they usually fail because while they are waiting for the entry point the market is already moving further toward their objectives.

One of them, though, caught my attention because he seems to have trend following traits in his discretionary approach. Yet I don't have statistics about his historical performance. As a matter of fact I already suspect what to expect on average.

My investigation and experience with trading systems, methods and principles give me a rather disappointing outlook on what to expect and how to make a successful trading enterprise. For instance, I notice that it's advisable to risk only 0.5-1% of account equity on a given trade / market. As a result, I need to have a highly diversified portfolio to have better returns (the manager I consider to be one of world's best trend followers has been making about 26% per year, with drawdowns around 29%). That's not particularly enticing I think. I know it's possible to make more, if one is willing to accept more downside risk potential. But then who knows where the Uncle Point is?

I feel I have a solid grasp of trend following principles and I am rather convinced there is no other way to go, unless I am willing to gamble and pay the corresponding price (Jesse Livermore comes to my mind). Yet I feel that trend following can be very demanding and boring, beginning with the programming, data collection, back-testing and system design process, to data update and execution of trades (as a matter of fact I wonder how traders like you could make your way in the old days, without the computer resources we have nowadays).

 

It's always more alluring to willingly believe that I might have some uncanny power to call a market moves and make a fortune out of the high leverage, rather than humbly admit that I am simple mortal.

I wish to make a system for myself. I have some ideas and I have already tested some. As I am limited to a couple of high correlated markets, I am thinking about working with model diversification.

 

Have you done some research in this regard, such as using different systems or same system with different parameters in the same market? What do you think?

A yearly return of 26% with a 29% maximum draw down gives .26/.29 = .897 Bliss Factor - several times that for Buy-And-Hold strategy for S&P.

 

I wonder what you do find "enticing."  Perhaps entitlement to making a lot of money without doing any work might appeal to you.

 

You might consider taking your feelings of <confusion and wanting others to rescue you> to Tribe.

 

 

Entitlements Put Strain

 

on the system

 

and on the recipients.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.centrists.org/pages/2003/

12/1_guest_budget.html

Tue, 8 Jan 2008

 

Riding an Old Paint

 

Hi Ed, had my first true Aha....

I remember as a kid my father (commercial painter, construction worker) wanting me to help him paint apartments or various houses throughout my teenage years. I remember spilling a drop of paint on the floor and him totally verbally abusing the s--t out of me. I felt rejected, humiliated, frozen, worthless, scared, sad, fearful, lonely etc etc.

I now see why I've been very shy towards women in the past.

I now see why I blew up my trading accounts when I made money.

When I had the aha just now I was kinda like physically convulsing in a way like a dog shaking to get dry. Like I was getting rid of that wired baggage / garbage in my system. Like an Exorcism. Pretty trippy.

Ed, thanks for teaching us the process, you are the man.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

If You Like To Clean Up Paint

 

you first have to spill it.

 

 

Clip: http://www.rd.com/17552/article.html

Sun, 6 Jan 2008

 

Tribe and Intentional Community Directory

Big Ed,

 

There are no such meeting places in the Pasadena-Glendale-Burbank, California area. Are there any being contemplated? Has anyone from the Greater Los Angeles area expressed interest in starting one? Please let me know at your convenience.

You can start a Tribe in your area. See the Tribe Directory link, above.

Sat, 5 Jan 2008

 

Successful Traders

Ed says, "If you wish to begin, you might consider hanging out with some successful traders." (Aug 16, 2007)

How do we know if a person is a successful trader? If we use money made as scores of the game, then perhaps one way is to look at those yearly rankings of how much a trader makes, and then see who is consistent appearing on that list?

Two issues:

1. I cannot get in touch with those people who are on top of the list (e.g. Steve Cohen, Jim Simons), and moreover I am not sure if they are willing to let me hang out with them.


2. The list is incomplete as it excludes successful traders who prefer not to publish their results (e.g. you).

So I guess the best I can do - and what I am doing now - is to keep asking questions to a successful trader and read his FAQ :-) Anything else you think I may consider doing to get to hang out with successful
traders?

You might consider taking your feelings about <getting other people to manage your life> to Tribe.

Sat, 5 Jan 2008

 

Drawdown


Ed says, "Drawdowns matter if they make you jump off your system."

In trading, "not following a system" seems to have a negative connotation.

The implicit assumption here is, following his system can help him be more profitable.

That is a bold assumption, isn't it? That is to say if only he has followed his system, he is going to be better off. But what if his system is 1) internally inconsistent, or 2) heavily negative skew in that a catastrophic is in the making for his many tiny wins? Then could it be a good thing that he is actually jumps off the system?

If so, can we say that the positive intention of a drawdown is to inform us of what is not working, as trend followers we want to stick with the trend of "what works"?

Thanks.

Following a system does not guarantee profits any more than not following a system.

 

Profits over any time span depend on how well the system fits the market behavior - and on how well the trader executes the system.

 

Following a system is likely to bring up feelings about wanting to abandon the system.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <commitment> to Tribe.

 

 

Commitment

 

"When you are beyond screwed

and way too stubborn to care."

 

Clip: http://www.fam-first.com/pictures/pictures.html

Fri, 4 Jan 2008

 

Look Within


Ed says, "Looking within ... seems a more direct path to success than only looking outside, to the markets."

Can you suggest some of the ways you use to look within?

Yes.

 

One way to look inside is with TTP, in your Tribe meetings.  Alternatively, you might turn to more formal medicine.

 

 

 

 

 

The Colonoscope

 

is one of Modern Western Medicine's ways

 

to have a good look inside.

 

 

 

Clip: http://medgadget.com/archives/

2007/06/sedationless_colonoscopy

_for_your_viewing_pleasure.html

Fri, 4 Jan 2008


Reading Tells
 

Ed says, "In practice, poker has to do with assessment of pot odds, reading tells and waiting for a good game to develop, similar practices to ones useful in trading." (2/6/03)

Can you give an example of how reading tells are useful in trading? Is it like observing for sentiment among market participants? Is it more like predicting rather than trend-following? Thanks.

One pretty good tell for a bull market is that prices take out the resistance and keep rising.

 

 

 

In Poker and in Life

 

players routinely study each other

to discover areas of vulnerability

 

 

Clip: http://guinnessandpoker.blogspot.com/

2005_03_20_archive.html

Fri, 4 Jan 2008

 

Marriage Counseling #2

A husband and wife came for counseling after 15 years of marriage . When asked what the problem was, the wife went into a passionate, painful tirade listing every problem they had ever had in the 15 years they had been married. She went on and on and on: neglect, lack of intimacy, emptiness, loneliness, feeling unloved and unlovable, an entire laundry list of un-met needs she had endured over the course of their marriage.

Finally, after allowing this to go on for a sufficient length of time, the therapist got up, walked around the desk and, after asking the wife to stand, he embraced and kissed her passionately. The woman shut up and quietly sat down as though in a daze.

The therapist turned to the husband and said, "This is what your wife needs at least three times a week. Can you do this?" The husband thought for a moment and replied,.. "Well, I can drop her off here on Mondays and Wednesdays, but on Fridays, I fish.

In TTP we do not recommend personal contact between the Process Manager and the Sender - unless the Sender is really good looking.

Fri, 4 Jan 2008

 

Speed Bandits - A Video


http://www.speedbandits.dk/

The Topless Speed Limit Girls in Denmark is likely an urban myth.

Fri, 04 Jan 2008


Marriage Counseling

Earl and Bubba are quietly sitting in a boat fishing, chewing and drinking beer when Bubba says, 'I think I'm gonna divorce my wife. She ain't spoke to me in over 2 months.'

Earl spits, sips his beer, and says, "Better think it over. Women like that are hard to find."

You might consider taking your feelings about <women and Southerners> to Tribe.

Thu, 3 Jan 2008

 

Depressed
 

Hey Ed,

I happened upon this site just a couple of days ago.

It so happens that my life is a mess and still trending lower. I was especially depressed and was online looking for something. (answers?, questions?, anything that might help). I ended up initiating a search on Google for "everybody gets what they want" and one of the links was to that book, "Market Wizards". I read that interview and was immediately struck by how unique and honest your answers were. Loved the interview and subsequently, I (guess what) did a search on Ed Seykota and arrived here.

It was truly odd. I was looking for a way to relieve my bout with depression and I ended up learning about a process that could help me, from a most unlikely source, a financial market guru. This also renews my interest in financial markets.

My interest in the stock market was first sparked when I read the book, 'At The Crest Of The Tidal Wave' by Robert Preacher. And, while the author was slightly off on his timing, his theories seemed sound. I still believe that a great bear market is coming which will lead to depression.

 

Due to the aging population of the United States, eventually there will be more people leaving the workforce than entering it. Social Security will no longer be able to support the retired folks. There will be no choice but to flood the economy with liquidity. The wealthy, and other people 'in the know' will sell, and the middle class will be left holding worthless stocks. There is already a credit crunch developing. I could go on, but, of course, this is fundamental analysis, and you don't consider fundamentals.

 

After all, this is just opinion since the future is, as you put it, non-existing. Plus, everyone seems to realize that there is an impending problem, but no one seems too worried about it.

I know that I am referencing the future, but I think that while living in the "now" is the best policy, I must still make plans for the future.

 

How does Ed Seykota resolve the fact that you must live in the future from time to time. I will feel hungry in the future, so I must make provisions for this. The stock market will be open from 9:30am to 4:00pm EST tomorrow, so I must set my alarm. If I don't plan for future events and rely on future events, I will miss out on future events or worse. I use fundamental analysis all the time in my every day life. Don't you?

When I first saw those pretty chart patterns years ago, I thought, "these patterns are so obvious, how do people manage to lose money?" Then, of course, I realized that while the past is 'etched in stone' and seems so obvious, the future is non-existing, and therefore unpredictable and never obvious.

I am a programmer, so, at that time, I acquired data and starting writing code to test the Elliot Wave theory. I ended up dismissing this theory because of the subjective nature of defining a 'wave'. However, my interest in technical analysis was sparked and I read other books on the subject. Eventually I did code a program that turned a profit, using moving average crossovers and slow stochastic crossovers. I never placed a trade because I had no money to open an account. so I forgot about it. At some point I did acquire enough capital to open an account, but at the time, the stock market was the furthest thing from my mind.

Well, that program was lost, although I still remember the concepts that I used, so I can re-create it. Of course, now I am unemployed and have no money to open an account, but I resolve now to get a job and save money so that I will have enough to gamble on the markets. Hopefully I will be on my way to better things and a happier life.

The question I have is, is it better to test systems on data from stocks such as General Motors (GM) which has made a round trip over the past 30 years?

 

I am assuming that this is so. Once I have a system to maximize profits in GM, it 'should' turn a profit in all markets, although, I'm not yet certain that I can take a 'one size fits all' approach. An optimized trading system for GM may not be a good system for BIDU.

Lastly, I was wondering if it is a pre-requisite that I read the Trading Tribe book before I contact a Trading Tribe group?

 

It's going to be a little while before I can even afford the book, but I do have many issues that I can take to Tribe. Of course, the book would help me understand the process better, so I will probably wait so as not to waste anybody's time.

The Trading Tribe process is very interesting to me. I have always been one to suppress any and all feelings as I've judged all feelings to be bad including joy and happiness. Since I've started reading the FAQs, I now realize that this is no way to go through life. It's only been a couple of days, but I am trying to be a better sender / receiver. I have wasted so much time.

Thank You so much for all of your insights and I wish you continued success.

I do not know how to live in the future.

 

If you know how, perhaps you can send me a demo. You might start with something simple - like accessing some price information from the future and bringing it back to the now.

 

We could then (now) use the information to medicate our feelings of uncertainty.

 

 

 

Belief in the Future

 

can medicate now feelings

of anxiety.

 

 

Clip: http://www.wsiwellness.com/cart/

images/test%20anxiety.bmp

 

 

Fri, 4 Jan 2008

 

Networking Contact

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I am not known to you but I discovered you about a year ago through the online encyclopedia called Wikipedia while learning more about [Company]. On the topic, I was interested to read about your background and found that you were a very talented and dedicated person.

 

I have hoped for an informational discussion about your practice and your philosophy and even wished to find a "very-little-commitment" mentor of sorts. Today I think I found the right opportunity, which is why I am contacting you.

Please allow me a short introduction. I have just begun a graduate program at [University] this spring. Prior to enlisting in this graduate program, I was working in new design and development of technology for large corporations. But, I decided that going back to school was the right choice both to study the attributes that make for good investments and to earn the credibility to contact people like you.

At [University], we have these things called Career Networking Receptions that I just learned about. I thought of you because one of these events will be taking place in [City]. Please pardon the late notice, but the event is scheduled for next week on Monday, January 7th from 7-9 pm.

Yet, I wanted to extend the invitation to you or any of your network to attend. It will no doubt be a welcoming social occasion, a chance to meet Alumni and members of the administration over something light to eat.

If you can attend or might know of good further contacts, the right person move would be to contact would be [Name]. If that's not possible on such short notice or because it is not the right occasion, perhaps there be another occasion to solicit 20 minutes of your time even on a phone call in the near future? Either way, please advise if any of this would be possible.

Thank you very much!

I wonder what you mean by finding a "very-little-commitment" mentor.

Wed, 2 Jan 2008

 

Two Different Reactions
 

Hi Ed,

I follow this FAQ thread:

Wants Cow Pie (5/22/07)
Contributor A: Maybe you could post a picture of a big hot air balloon, or a wind bag, or a big pile of cow poop, or something.

On Cow Pies and Games (6/18/07)
Contributor B: I quickly realize (after my initial outburst of course) that this is exactly how drama in my life escalates. I'm now caught up in 'the game' with this person. I don't enjoy participating in these types of games but I sometimes am unable to help myself. Obviously, on some level, I must enjoy it

More Cow Pies (6/20/07)
Contributor A: I smile when I read non-trader type comments. This person clearly has issues around their inability to follow a trading plan

Before I read Contributor A's reply on 6/20, I feel tremendously impressed with Contributor B's insight. To me, he seems to have an extraordinary gift to be able to step out of the drama, reflect on the big picture and gain some really cool insight that I greatly appreciate.

After reading Contributor A's reply on 6/20, I still feel the same about Contributor B, and I also feel in awe (as in eye-opening and very glad to see) how the very same reflections (by Contributor B) can draw two radically different responses (mine and Contributor A).

FAQ is a very cool learning place - seems like always something new I learn, and in unexpected ways. Thanks.

OK.

Wed, 2 Jan 2008

 

Stocks in Up-trends
 

Hi Ed !

As goes oil, so go the solar stocks:

SOLF
CSUN
AKNS
ASTI

regards,

Thank you for the "tip."

 

Here is a chart of one of your picks.

 

I find you have an uncanny sense of timing.  Please keep the recommendations coming.

 

 

 

SOLF

 

The Red Circle shows the date and price

of the buy recommendation.

 

Wed, 2 Jan 2008

 

Rock Process Questions / FAQ: Jun 18, 2007
 

Hi Ed,

I have several questions regarding that FAQ:

(Contributor) I thank you for stressing on the word " VISION" during the snapshot process...


1. Can you please share with us again the role of VISION in the context of the snapshot process?

(Ed) We Assimilate Medicinal Rocks during terrifying events ...


2. Is it the only way we assimilate Medicinal Rocks?
 

3. Is it a necessary condition that "someone" passes the Medicinal Rocks to us? Is it possible that we somehow instinctively pick up a Medicinal Rock? If so, how do we role-play it in the Rock Process? (In the Rock Process we always have someone else handling a rock to us during role-play)

Thanks.

You  might consider that you are responsible for creating all the circumstances in your life, including the receipt of rocks.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <needing for me to tell you how to do things> to your Tribe.

 

 

 

Sometimes We Miss

having our fathers behind us

 

and we look to others

to medicate that feeling.

 

 

Some Thoughts About Fathers

 

"I cannot think of any need in childhood as strong as the need for a father's protection." -- Sigmund Freud.

"A man never stands as tall as when he kneels to help a child." --the Knights of Pythagoras

"A truly rich man is one whose children run into his arms when his hands are empty." -- Saying

"Father! - to God himself we cannot give a holier name." -- William Wordsworth.

"Sherman made the terrible discovery that men make about their fathers sooner or later... that the man before him was not an aging father but a boy, a boy much like himself, a boy who grew up and had a child of his own and, as best he could, out of a sense of duty and, perhaps love, adopted a role called Being a Father so that his child would have something mythical and infinitely important: a Protector, who would keep a lid on all the chaotic and catastrophic possibilities of life." -- Tom Wolfe.

"One night a father overheard his son pray: Dear God, Make me the kind of man my Daddy is. Later that night, the Father prayed, Dear God, Make me the kind of man my son wants me to be." -- Author Unknown.

"When I was a boy of fourteen, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be twenty-one, I was astonished at how much he had learned in seven years." -- Mark Twain.

Quotes & Clip:

http://www.tubal-reversal.net/fathers-day2.htm

Wed, 2 Jan 2008

 

Ultimate Trend

Ed says: "A trend is merely an idea. There is no such thing in nature"

Hi Ed,

I wonder if you've heard about the "Ultimate Trend."


"Every market also has a true trend that stands out from the other trends. It is self-adjusting, but that quality arises out of the equations themselves and is not arbitrarily determined.

Ocean uses what's known as the natural moving average, which dynamically adjusts itself to the market but without being programmed to do so.

 

One way of looking at it is that this is the market's own average of itself. It's remarkable to see."

 

It should be self-adjusting. It should be non-arbitrary. It should be timeframe-neutral. It should be market-neutral."

You might consider running some back-tests on the indicator in order to supplement the poetic claims with some statistical evidence.

 

 

 

The Promise that Accompanies the Medicine

 

is sometimes the real medicine.

 

 

Clip:http://blog.bodybuilding.com/deserusan/

category/advanced-supplement-discussion/

Thu, 3 Jan 2008

 

Just Starting Out

 
Dear Ed,

Firstly, a massive thank you for your site. I have found it to be a invaluable learning resource, extremely thought provoking, and (at times) very entertaining. Keep up the excellent work!!!

I have spent the past 6 months researching, testing and refining various trading systems. At the end of that period, I have arrived at a system that I believe will work well with me, and produces return / drawdown characteristics that exceed my requirements. I have tested my system over 15 years of data. I have then randomized the outcomes to get 'approximate' measures for the maximum drawdown and expected returns. (I say 'approximate' because I think there are inherent problems with my (or any) randomizing methods, but they are subtle issues. That is a discussion for another email, let me know it you are curious.).

I have been working for a "trading" bank (I consider it to be a bank that rapes it customers and calls the profits 'trading' - but the bosses like to call it a "trading bank"), for the past 7 years. I have been running positions in the book I manage, under the guise of "I can see the future, because I have read the economic data". That is how the bosses like it - they like a story, it makes them comfortable. I like profits - not a story - and as such, I have been driven to create my own system for myself.

I put my first trade on this week. I was very scared and concerned, (what if my research was wrong? what if slippage was a lot more than I thought? what if one of my brokers goes under?, etc, etc). I composed myself and made the trade.

I opened the position, put in the orders to add to the position, and the stop loss order. Then, I took my dog to the park.

It was very relaxing. I thought about the trade - it was like I was outside myself, watching myself putting the trade on, and saying to myself "good job, trade done, just let it mature - good or bad." This has never happened to me before. Previously, I have put a trade on, with no fear, and then spent the next period fearing where I should put the stop, how I should move the stop; if and when, and how much, I should add to the trade, and what happens if the boss wants the trade to be long when I am short, or vice versa?? From there, I would spend every second of the day watching the price, because the bank doesn't tolerate the giving back of profits - under any circumstances.

I enjoyed my time in the park, and so did my dog. I intend for this to continue. (That said, my dog did scare the h--- out of a few squirrels. I guess there has to be a loser in every trade).


There are a few terms on your website that have put a name to thoughts I have had for some time.

"Snapshot", I have envisaged my trading system providing for me and family, and allowing me time to spend with my wife and our dog (she is the light of our life), rather than in the office. This picture helps drive me towards a well researched system.

"Bliss", I had been optimizing my system to maximize return / drawdown, finding that you do similar was comforting.

Also, I find the "Intention = Results" concept fascinating. I have had similar thoughts myself, for some time, but I have had difficulty verbalizing it to others. I thank you for the clarity and conciseness of your site.

I hope you don't mind me sharing my thoughts with you. I intend to follow my system for the foreseeable future, and I look forward to it producing results similar to those that my testing has suggested are possible. Would it be ok with you if I sent you an update of how well I was sticking to my system, every so often??

Please keep the FAQ going, I find it fascinating in so many ways.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

Let me know how it goes for you, especially if and when you encounter a drawdown.

Wed, 2 Jan 2008 12:03:53 EST
 

Commitments


Dear Mr. Seykota,

I wish you and your family a happy, healthy and prosperous year 2008!

For 2008 I commit to:

- spending a lot of time with the essential tribe, my family and friends.

- trading trends, as there are some every year.

- staying healthy and fit

- improving my language skills in French

Yours sincerely,

OK.