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March 15 - 31, 2008

 

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Note: The intention of inclusion of charts in FAQ is to illustrate trading principles - The appearance of a chart does not imply any kind of indication or recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out of any positions.

 

 

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Mon, 31 Mar 2008

 

Not a Gambler

see previous


Mr. Seykota,


I know those $5000 do not mean much to you. You probably use it to filter out people who really need your help as you must be getting hundreds of calls and e-mail’s from people like me.


Anyway, sir, you know most of my issues. You can put it on FAQ.


I will do whatever it takes to experience life in a joyous way. I am not a blind gambler if not I would not have survived for this long.

 

I also think I have a method to trade which suits my temperament.

 

You know I have actually not lost that much trading.

 

It was the way my debt was structured which always weighed me down.

 

You know how your ability to think diminishes when a sword is hanging over your head.

 

I am also being able to go short as this I think this is a bear market or at least more money will be made going short.


If I can keep myself from self destructing the next time I might have a chance. Hope you can help me with that.

Thank You!

You might take your feelings about <debt> and <sword over your head> to Tribe.

 

You might also remember some important role models through your life whom you recall having a propensity to be in debt.

 

 

 

The Feelings of Being in Debt

 

may serve

to cover up the feelings

of deeper issues.

 

 

Clip: http://latestfinnews.com/2007/12/

Mon, 31 Mar 2008

 

Advice on Losing Weight

Ed:

 

Isn't it great that there is so much advice on losing weight!

 

Here's another: there is a race that runs your way (Squaw Valley to Auburn), with a reputation for inducing rapid weight loss in the participants: http://www.ws100.com/

Thank you for the item.

 

I can think of many ways to lose weight quickly.

 

I am focusing on a program to increase long-term health, including gradual weight loss, while managing risk.

 

 

 

Rapid Weight Loss Is Possible

 

with liposuction,

starvation diets,

exercise marathons.

and the guillotine

 

Schemes to quickly

lose weight

or make money

typically carry high risk.

 

Mon, 31 Mar 2008

 

Magazine Cover Indicator

Ed,

Seems like the bottom. The cover looks pretty gloomy, will wait for higher prices.

PS. How are you doing with your trading book project?

 

 

Thank you for the cover.

 

The book is still in process.

Mon, 31 Mar 2008

 

Wants a Picture

 

Hi Ed!

I was at FAQ checking in. Saw your changing health numbers. Nice job!

Where is the current picture of the 'new' Ed?

Thank you for your encouragement.

 

Keep watching this site for a video.

Mon, 31 Mar 2008

 

Buying Sofa Gold


Hi Ed,

I thought you might be interested in the following link. It's not quite a magazine cover, but it is a TV "magazine show". The upbeat feature about "how to buy gold" was shown on this sofa-based lifestyle show, primetime, on the UK's main TV channel, on January 30th this year. It aired to about 6 million viewers.

 

Clip: http://www.bbc.co.uk/theoneshow/article/

2008/01/dld_goldinvest.shtml

Thank you for the link.

Mon, 31 Mar 2008

 

Singapore Tribe



Dear Ed:

 

Please find my application details attached for your attention.

 

 

Welcome

 

Singapore

 

 

Mon, 31 Mar 2008

 

Sees the Pattern

see previous


Ed,

At first I found optimism and encouragement from your post.

Then I notice my deep sadness and it hits me that all these years I was medicating my depression (and deeply rooted auto-destructive tendencies).

 

Every where I would go, I would carry this sign with me (HELP) and intimacy was restrained, since I would hide this sign after many meek attempts as a child. I always felt like a 2nd class citizen because of this.

 

I’m glad I wrote this to you, because I’ve done this before with other people, but got no feedback other than bye-bye.

I was born into a reality with a depressed mother (she even mentioned once that she surely would kill herself and the only reason she lives for is me) and a father who would do anything for her including not letting rock the boat by anyone. I recall being maybe five years old watching my mother cook in doom and gloom. I asked myself, “what’s wrong with her”? Until this day, she’s completely unaware of the severity of her sickness.

I felt guilty leaving her for even a 2 week holiday. I felt guilty having fun. My trading account, guilt again. Now, in my current state, I feel this pain quite clearly [again]. That's the reason I’m afraid of life and intimacy.

The boat you pictured and the help sign is a shadow of a cry for help from a depressed and suicidal person. I would hang that sign up to anyone who would come close – soon enough, the person was gone,

 

I am usually attracted to fun-loving people, I used to be that way. They didn’t know my problems or intentions of doing so, neither did I – I just looked weak and that made me eventually lonely and furious, mostly at myself.

Fortunately, I do remember being a happy and energetic kid, so this is not biology just the byproduct of naturally trying picking up the crap from a close person.

Even though I’m quite intelligent, I would make irrational life decisions by “thinking too big” and being lazy (sure, if I get things done I might even get a happy), while ignoring the dangers. I just don’t feel the fear associated with the possibility of loss. I plan on getting over this, I just can’t let myself set up such drama in my life anymore.

This is probably the bottom line of my personal drama. This is so sick, this makes me a bad trader.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sun, 30 Mar 2008

 

Randy Pausch, a Dying Man

Talks about Being Alive - on Oprah


Hey Ed,

Here is a good video.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8577255250907450469&hl=en

Thank you for the link.

Sun, 30 Mar 2008

 

Moving On: From Depression to Sexy

see previous



I have a lovely home in a beautiful setting. Two cars, two dogs. positive net worth. I have worked since I was 15 years old, my first job in a hot dog stand  ...


[Ex boyfriend] is broke, and recently had to take out a bank loan to buy a $4K used car off EBay.
 

Why would I look to him to provide anything for me? Certainly not right livelihood, he barely can pull this off himself.


My goal is to partner with someone who enjoys some of the same things such as [sporting activity].  I'd like a friend / companion who enjoys the sport as much as I do and who wants to snuggle up with the dogs at night and just enjoy life.


How would you "see" genetic or SSRI roots, anyway?

Thank you for sharing your recent and rapidly evolving process.

 

Congratulations of moving out of remorse and heartache and on to the next series of feelings.

 

 

 

The Difference Between Whining and Winning

 

can be close to zero.

 

 

http://www.fpsbanana.com/clubs/threads/539?64

Sat, 29 Mar 2008

 

Salmon and Sinusoids

In a March 2008 FAQ you list your diet inclusions and exclusions. Missing from your list of supplements is omega-3 fatty acid supplementation. AKA Cod liver oil. Unless your fish intake is 3 servings of salmon per week your pancreas is giving sinusoidal bursts of insulin. Thus making you crave carbohydrates.





 

Hmmm ...

 

I don't seem to notice sinusoidal bursts.

 

I wonder if you know the frequency and amplitude of these insulin bursts and degree to which by which 3 servings per week of salmon attenuates these bursts. 

 

I wonder if the frequency of application of salmon (3/week) excites its own sinusoidal response pattern.

 

 

 

After only a Few Short Weeks

 

of following Dr. Fish's 3x Salmon Diet

 

these Aquarian Acolytes

report a feeling

of being "in the pink" again.

 

They also report

a curious desire

to swim up waterfalls

to have sex and then die.

 

 

Clip: http://laughingsquid.com/bacardi-rips-off-the-cacophony-society/

Date: Sat, 29 Mar


FAQ Study and Review


Hi Ed,

I am happy to say that I have completed going through FAQ from the very beginning to current, while taking careful notes - in fact, 180 pages total. Here's a breakdown by year:

2003: 31 pages
2004: 26 pages
2005: 22 pages
2006: 31 pages
2007: 54 pages
2008: 6 pages (~3 months)

I think there are two reasons 2007 is significantly above average. One is that I seem to get more out of the left-hand-side of the FAQ, and secondly, I think my understanding broadens such that those answers on the right I used not to get and might ignore now becomes ahas and a part of my note.

At current pace, 2008 is a "down" year, possibly due to the 2-month FAQ vacation.

Thank you very much for creating and maintaining FAQ. It's like anextended version of The Trader's Window that I read at your house. I have noticed throughout the years you have changed (e.g. You most frequent response now is "Thank you for sharing your process", which we don't see that in early years) The left-hand-side also shifts from predominately trading with how to conduct TTP and now a balance of trading and reporting TTP progress (and of course many other topics).

On the right hand side, there also seems to be periods with extensive responses and periods with mostly one-lined response. On the left hand side, it seems that the contributors grow as well, in terms of the kinds of questions that they ask.

Compared to June 2003 when I participated in the first local TT meeting, I think the biggest benefit for me is to lessen my desire to "fix" other people and just accept/support them to be the way they are.

 

I think this is critical in my relationship with my wife (then  girlfriend). Another big lesson is on validating other people's feelings. Moreover, through INTENTION = RESULT, I find myself using less and less excuse but realize things are largely the way it is through my creation. I can also see how many people use excuses to medicate.

 

There are many more lessons I can't possibly list them all here, including commitment, the illusion of time, and many more.

One thing I still feel there is a "weak spot" in terms of my right livelihood. My current job allows me to stay close with the market, and most importantly, a very good income that I feel is crucial as I will be a father soon.

 

However, I am not feeling satisfied nor fulfilled, as I feel that with my limited math and computer skills (they are above average as I have a master degree in engineering, but far below average in the quant-land where everyone holds a PhD) I can never be successful doing trading the way we trade at my job (heavy use of computers and algorithms and complicated models to manage billion dollars portfolio of equities world-wide). As such, I am only riding the coattail of my boss.

Of course, the answer seems simple - just quit my job and do what I love. But all my work experience has been in this area, and there is a fear I wish not to confront - the fear of not having a job - especially one that is allowing me to be many times the median income (I know I can hardly find another job that pays me this well), and especially when I know my expense will soon skyrocket with a new born.

 

I know a lot of these are just rationalizing, and possibly such that I do not have to confront the fear of having no income to support my family, but the fear is so overwhelming that I dare not get close to it.

 

In return, I am feeling unfulfilled and unsatisfied. Even though I don't like these feelings either, apparently I must like them more than the feeling of experiencing the fear of jobless and broke. After reading so many FAQs,

 

I feel that a likely response would be "Thank you for sharing your process. You might consider taking your feeling of <fear of not having a job> to your tribe."

 

Sigh, this is not easy. Knowing is one thing, but actually having the courage to do it is another.

Sorry I keep rambling. My original thought is to just report to you about my completion of going through the FAQ and thank you wholeheartedly for your teachings and maintaining the site. Many, many, many thanks.

Thank you for your report on the evolution of FAQ and the evolution of you.

 

 

 

 

One Intention of Fear

 

is risk control.

 

The confusing presumptions are:

 

(1) Risk is knowable and bad.

(2) Control is possible and good.

 

 

Clip: http://communities.canada.com/

vancouversun/blogs/thesearch/archive/

2008/01/26/in-a-culture-of-fear-staying-

calm-is-a-political-act.aspx

Sat, 29 Mar 2008 16:29:18 +0100 (CET)
 

TTP and Health


Dear Mr. Seykota,

In the FAQs there are different opinions about ideal weight and goals. You might consider to publish these reflections in the FAQs:

I know a nutritionist. She uses a solid trading system, limits risk, and lets the profits run. She does not get in or out of positions based on price objectives. She is a trend trader and it is likely that she achieves financial success.

I also know a trader who decides to improve his fitness. He thoroughly evaluates tables and graphs from insurance companies. He sets goals for his weight, endurance and resistance; they are based on statistics and intensive analysis of the literature. He bases his goals and decisions on fundamental data. Statistics suggest that this approach is less rewarding than trend trading.

I know a runner whose goal to run the marathon in 2:12 hours led to a result of 2:19 and hindered him from running the realistic time of 2:15. He still has to work on his trading system.

 

I learn that price objectives and personal goals are important tools for motivation: you know where you want to go, but maybe the market does not agree with you. Price objectives can result in leaving a successful system / trend too early or to too high expectations. I learn to work on my system rather than on my goals. Adherence to a good system will show what is possible.

Maybe everybody, always, has its ideal body weight, someway.

I wish you the best and a successful system.

Sincerely yours,

Thank you for sharing your reflections.  They cut to the essential differences between the causal and system model.

 

I maintain that TTP lies at the point where you can hold both models simultaneously - that is, you can follow a system that moves you toward the goal without attachment to the goal.

 

When the exercise of the discipline (in this case, less food and more motion) becomes the "goal." The process of doing integrates with the essence of being.

 

That is, those who walk the path without attachment to the mile markers are likely to notice themselves traversing the markers as a matter of course.

 

 

 

If You Stay on the Path

 

the moment of now

eventually delivers you

to the zero point.

 

Clip: http://www.magazineusa.com/us/cityguide/

show.aspx?state=fl&unit=keywest&doc=3

Fri, 28 Mar 2008

 

Seven New Sins

Hi Ed,

I wonder what you think about the seven new sins
 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aizloDFbRPRM&refer=uk

 


As a Catholic (baptized when I was a kid before I could even remember), I feel agitated, maybe even a little angry, at how CRAZY the Church is. Three of those sins are pretty much the same (excessive wealthy, creating poverty and contributing to widening divide between rich and poor), and they seem to be arguing for communism which has proven to be economic disaster. It also reminds me of how the middle ages popes used to possess wealth and power at unthinkable magnitude, so it's very hypocritical for the pope now to denounce excessive wealth to the point that it is now a sin.

Birth control ("bioethical violations") is also a sin now.
Interestingly, if you plot income per person (log) vs children per woman (lin), there is a clear inverse relationship. On the bottom right (low income per person and high children per woman) are Afghanistan, Niger and Congo. In general terms, either one violates "bio-ethically" (e.g. birth control), or runs the risk of creating poverty and contributing to widening divide between rich and poor.

According to Catholic source, sin is defined as "an offense against reason, truth, and right conscience..." ( http://tinyurl.com/22mwn6 ).
From previous paragraph, the Church's new sins are conflicting and against reason, and so it seems to me that their declaration of new sins is a sin itself, at least according to the definition in Catholic Catechism.

It is driving me nuts, and I find myself keep repeating "stupid,stupid, stupid" as I read the news in disbelief, keep wondering how people - supposedly "holy" people - can be so incredibly stupid, ignorant, and illogical. This is actually a very interesting observation. Apparently I have lots of feelings about the church, and maybe even a knot in "stupidity." I guess this may be another entry point for me to the hot seat. It just makes me very disappointed at the Church (as I say I am baptized as a Catholic as a child and still go to mass weekly), and wonder if I'd want my child to be a part of this community.



The seven social sins are:

1. ``Bioethical' violations such as birth control

2. ``Morally dubious'' experiments such as stem cell research

3. Drug abuse

4. Polluting the environment

5. Contributing to widening divide between rich and poor

6. Excessive wealth

7. Creating poverty

 



The original deadly sins:

1. Pride

2. Envy

3. Gluttony

4. Lust

5. Anger

6. Greed

7. Sloth

The notion of sin rests upon the causal model derivative principle: judgment. 

 

Judgment is an essential element in a social structure that relies on blame and guilt in order to exert social control.

 

Your attempts to make sense of it are likely to lead to frustration.

 

You either accept it "on faith" or you do not.

 

Some people prefer the blue pill and others prefer the red one.

 

And a very few prefer to be content with people taking whatever pill they like.

 

 

 


“You have to see it for yourself.

This is your last chance.

 

After this there is no turning back.

 

You take the blue pill,

the story ends, you wake up in your bed

and believe whatever you want to believe.

 

You take the red pill,

you stay in Wonderland,

and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.

 

Remember, all I’m offering is the truth,

nothing more … .”

–Morpheus, The Matrix

 

 

Clip: http://www.arrod.co.uk/essays/matrix.php

Fri, 28 Mar 2008

 

Wants Help

 

see previous


Thank you again for pointing out my flaws.

 

I am arrogant, although I prefer to think that it’s enthusiasm – but it isn’t. Because of this arrogance simply cannot feel love or care about the other person.

I appreciate your honesty.


I do not want to live anymore – I have been like this since a child and nothing has changed.

I’m incongruent and prone to fighting when I’d rather hug the person (I can’t remember the last hug – oh, come to think of it, actually I do. This new years eve. It was a strange and big party. I noticed a lot of emotional reactions from people I didn’t even know.

 

When I stood still, the women would want to dance with me, the men would want to provoke me. I almost got into a fight over a girl, believe me, I was just having a nice conversation and she was alone. I tried to find common ground with the guy that intruded but that didn’t really work out – I also figured him pushing me from behind when I was dancing with another girl later on (just to forget the whole thing and have some fun) was definitely overdone.

 

I ran up to him and told him to never push me again. He pushed me again and stood there. (It turned out that this guy was the organizer of the party, which I didn’t know. Maybe I was impolite for not introducing myself earlier and he felt offended by that – interestingly I probably do this because I personally don’t think anyone would like to get to know me).

I thought about this and I waited for the guy to show up again. A nice older man came up to me, talked about the absurdity of the situation, which I agreed with, he could sense that I was upset. After a few minutes of talk, we simultaneously reached out to each other and hugged and wished each other a happy new year – he calmed me down and I thanked him.

 

I thought that this person is the real emotional guru, this hug meant a lot to me. Even though I didn’t know him it felt good – like a bit of love. It also reminds me of a story my sister told me – when she was being hit by my father, she threw her arms around him and said that she loves him – she claims that after that he never hit her again).

The love I felt for people was concealed deeply, instead I would look down on those who would come close and reach out to me. It doesn’t matter anymore that I had “good intentions” and “thought about” that love – I did not show it. Alas, I showed quite the opposite the more I loved. I knew something was wrong with me, I just didn’t know what. I wanted to cure this before I could reach out again. A vicious circle or rather a downward spiral. Speaking of trends.

A man is what he does, not what he thinks. I knew that a long time ago – but nothing has changed anyway.

I’m too old for any excuses anymore.

I’m doing the same things my parents would do. They concealed their love for me and my sister and used us to communicate theirs and they would look down on us for trying to reach out to them.

I beg you on my knees (right now as I write this) – help me.

What feeling is holding me back? What am I unwilling to feel for being like this?

You might consider defining the help you want to receive - and then locating someone to whom to give this kind of help.

 

 

 

I Wonder How This Supplicant

 

happens to have her sign

already on the boat

and all ready to go

 

 

 

Clip: http://leedslawsoc.com/content/view/18/37/ 

Thu, 27 Mar 2008

 

Catches Mis-spelling

see previous


Ed: While soldering also has the risk of lead exposure, it is an entirely different level of risk than soldiering.

Thank you for the catch.

 

 

 

The Lead in Soldering

 

has a different form from ...

 

 

 

The Lead in Soldiering

 

From left to right:

 .22 lr, .380 auto, .38 special,

9mm, .357 magnum, .40 S&W,

.45 acp, .44 magnum, 7.62x39mm, 8mm

 

 

Clips:

 

http://www.howardelectronics.com/

amtech/images/63-37-031.jpg

 

http://www.restlessadventurer.net/guns/caliber.php

Fri, 28 Mar 2008

 

Workshop Date


Hi Ed,

I see that you will have another workshop in July ... and I would really like to come to the US, and attend this to update myself on recent additions, especially if it happens to be in the first few days of July ?? Please post the dates as soon as you have fixed them, and thanks in advance.

OK - keep an eye on the Workshop link.

Thu, 27 Mar 2008

 

Just Show Up

 

Ed,

 

Can I just show up in Chicago for July or is there a process for me to join?

 

Yes.  You can do it that way.  You can also keep an eye on the Workshop link.

Thu, 27 Mar 2008

 

Wants to Access Archive


Hi Ed,



I want to read the Tribe's archive. How I can to enter there?

See the link to FAQ Index.

Thu, 27 Mar 2008

 

Here's the Deal


Mr. Seykota,

It will take sometime for me to send a cheque for USD 5000 . That $5,000 is about 200,000.00 in our currency which is quite a lot of money. As you know every $ is important for me . It is also a financial year end for us on 31st March 27, and I don’t know how much of my depleted resources will be with drawn. I know those $5000 could turn out to be worth millions if I could find any kind of answers thru you. So I am going to try my best “where there’s a will there’s always a way” as they say. Please give me some time. I hope it’s not too late before we can begin.


In the mean time I am trying to think of person’s who have a pattern of being in debt and about my feeling’s towards them but as of now I can’t think of anyone in particular.

The way I understand it, you wish to obtain my services to assist you in taking a big plunge in the markets in order to solve your problem of being in debt due to your market plunging.

Thank you, no.

 

I do not wish to take money from you that you need for living expenses. I do not wish to participate in enabling your patterns and elevating delinquencies to an even higher level.

Under the circumstances, I recommend you post your concerns to FAQ where I can deal with them for free and anonymously.

 

 

 

 

Dealing with Gambling

 

may be useful

as an excuse

 

for not dealing

with deeper issues

 

Clip: http://www.helpgamblers.com/category/aa/

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

Dealing with Hunger

 

Wt. loss


Ed: I am 53, and close to my weight at 30. I ride the bike with some ex Olympic riders, and find that the key is to stay active and eat the minimum of carbs necessary. Get used to feeling a bit hungry. Hunger is a useful signal, but you can override it a bit if you need to lose weight. Thanks for lots of advice and
insight.
 

Thank you for sharing your experience.

 

Dealing with hunger seems fairly straight forward. You feel hungry, you eat.

 

Dealing with other forms of emptiness (loneliness, frustration, lack of fulfillment) by eating can serve to medicate these feelings, thereby postponing pro-active solutions and piling on fat as a bonus.

 

 

 

Putting on Fat

 

can be a solution

to deeper conflicts.

 

Clip: http://sci-toys.com/attention/2006/04/gut-feeling-about-mortality.html

Thu, 27 Mar 2008

 

Wants to Ask Questions


Hi Ed,

Thanks for your prompt email, I’ve ordered The Trading Tribe .


Would it be ok to ask you some questions as I go through the book?

Yes, you may address questions to this column.

 

For private consulting, see the terms at the bottom of the Ground Rules link,

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

Forsaking SSRI


Ed,

 

...as I recall, Dr. Fischer says something like "a world without love is a deadly place"... this is why, even when my brain chemistry is the most fu---- up, I will not now, nor will I ever take pure SSRI type drugs.

 

Firstly, they don't work, secondly, I'm not willing to sacrifice orgasmic response, thirdly, it doesn't make sense to me. Without being able to open the skull and sample the neurotransmitter s, How does an MD know which system is failing?

 

Maybe it's the dopaminergic response, or norepinephrine. Yet most of the drugs target serotonin. I am convinced that I have a pure (or nearly so) deficiency in the norepinephrine response.

 

The only drug that targets nor-epi is Reboxitine, available in Europe, but FDA has blocked all attempts to bring it here. GRRRRR.


I finally had to raise the dose of meds to %50 higher than the normal recommended dose to achieve the nor epi response that I needed. It finally kicked in. I'm also feeling sexual for the first time in months ... go figure.


Of course I would rather not have to take them. But, when faced with the level of despair I feel without them, well .... I'm signed on for now. I don't know if I ever told you that my mothers death was a suicide. And it was not her first attempt.


So I inherited a couple of fu---- up genes - my Dads propensity toward drink, and my mothers toward depression. I think I've done okay given the cards I was dealt. But I can do more. And that process has started in me.

I see no convincing evidence for or against the hypothesis that your condition is essentially glandular.

 

Your situation is, incidentally,  consistent with using one obsessive pattern (heartache about a fickle boy-friend) to mask the symptoms of deeper right-livelihood issues.

 

I suspect that once you settle your vocational issues the allure of obsessing over Mr. Ex and others may abate.

  

Harville Hendrix is the champion of Imago Theory, a school of thought that notices the subconscious pattern of attracting parental surrogate figures in order to resolve early issues.

 

 

 

Pining ...

 

 

 

... and whining

 

can be useful

as medication

 

for deeper issues.

 

 

Clips:

http://jesuschristblog.blog.com/1788621/

http://scribblers-diaries.blogspot.com/

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

Cancer and Fatigue


Dear Mr. Seykota,

I am thinking a lot about your question, if fatigue in cancer patients is related to emotional issues. I feel and found evidence that the problem is physiological (loss of physical performance due to organic changes created by chemo-or radiotherapy), but it is a sequel of cancer and its treatment, which in my opinion can be related to emotional issues.

 

I have seen some impressive evidence of mental conflicts coinciding with the outbreak of physical diseases. And you are right, it is wonderful to help patients this way. The experience with cancer and depression patients is very rewarding, even more when I consider that we do not use drugs but the biological principle of adaptation.

To your email:

I congratulate you for your progress, it is impressive and solid. Hence, you can expect it to continue, even if you don't change your current habits.

Before setting weight goals, consider that

- your larger muscle mass will increase your weight. The increase can be huge (4 or 5 kg, if you are big and exercising heavily). There is growing evidence that fitness is a more reliable predictor of low cardiovascular risk than body weight.

A goal based on tables can be misleading. You are already burning more calories than your intake. If you keep your exercise program and your diet, you will loss further weight until a certain point. It might be above or below your goal weight. Maybe it is a good idea to wait and see. If it took you 30 years to build your figure, a re-shaping in a short time is uncomfortable. If you further reduce your calorie intake, you can feel weak. If you exaggerate the amount of exercise, you can get injured.

 

You can only reduce abdominal fat if you reduce your total fat.

 

The ratio between abdominal and total fat depends on several factors (race, genetics, hormones, gender). There is no non-surgical way of local fat reduction, since you cannot change your race or genetics, and hormonal treatment is still experimental.

 

I don't know, should I make a joke about sex change? No, you are serious about diet and exercise. A more traditional approach is to improve your posture: more relaxed back muscles and a firmer abdominal wall. Again, this will take some time. Consider that weight loss will also reduce the intra-abdominal fat, which you don't see but enlarges your waist.

 

If you are used to high-concentrated carbohydrates (candy bars,chocolate), you can feel hypoglycemic even at normal blood sugarconcentrations. The same happens if you have a high blood pressure and your doctor lowers it with medicaments. It takes some time until you are used to the new values. If the feelings persist after 2 or 3 months, it is likely that your diet is too strict.

 

It may be difficult to sustain an exercise program on a very low carbohydrate diet. If you are experiencing problems with your energy level, it can be useful to eat some non-refined carbohydrates (oatmeal, fruit or non-processed cereals) 60 minutes before the workout. They will be absorbed slowly and help sustain your energy level during the workout.

 

Dried cereals (cornflakes) are not ideal, maybe you can find muesli or granola without sugar or honey. I don't know the brands in the US.- I do not recommend a very low carbohydrate diet, rather non-refined carbohydrates. Overweight is probably related to the concentration of carbohydrates and hence to the release rate of sugar from the gut in blood.

 

A high amount of fiber leads to satiety and, more important, to a lower release of sugar in blood. Hence, you will have a more stable energy level and no peaks in blood sugar, which lead to increased release of hormones, hunger and finally to weight gain.

 

An example: boiled potatoes are better than mashed potatoes are better than fried potatoes are better than potato chips, which are really a problem. Grapes are better than raisins are better than honey are better than sugar, which is mostly unnecessary.

About your training routine:


- An elliptical exercise machine is excellent. Running is even better, but is related to a high rate of injuries (maybe as high as 30%/year, meaning 1/3 of runners are injured at least once a year).


- Circuit training is more effective to burn calories than working with weights, since the work out lasts longer (I do not count the breaks between exercises.

 

However, it will not build such a large muscle mass as weight training. Maybe you can discuss the issue with your coach.

Some additional information could help me: do you check your heart rateduring training? In your weight training, do you carry out a lot of repetitions (15 or more) with low weights or few repetitions (less than 12) with heavy weights?

If you have any specific question, well, I am here.

Sincerely yours,

Thank you for the information.

 

I am already following many of your suggestions.

 

I am holding my "target weight" of 175 pounds more as a notion  than as a "do or die" goal.  I am watching my shape and noticing my feelings as primary guidance.

 

I spend about 30 minutes on the elliptical, about 5x per week.  I adjust the resistance settings such that I maintain a heart rate of around 125 beats/minute.

 

I train with weights about 1 hour, 3x per week with a trainer.  The idea is to run about three sets of around 10 reps (depending on the particular exercise) such that the last few reps exhaust the muscle to the point where it no longer functions.  This requires embracing considerable physical pain and fatigue.

 

 

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

Cancer


It’s concerning the trend / counter trend mode research; I continue to work on the subject but I haven’t had the time to write results because my father started to have a cancer one month ago, so the last month has been very busy, the treatment started yesterday and I think now that the situation is in the good direction.


Mostly of the time I am at my parents place and there is no internet so I will send you something in one or two weeks.


I will try to write something on the feelings I have during this experience.


Thanks again for your support.

You and your father might be able to trace the  "start" of the cancer to some conflicts from much earlier than a month ago.

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

Amazing Picture

see Feelings about Soldiering

 

Ed,

That picture. I'm amazed how you know.

Your email communicates your feelings in vivid detail.

 

People under stress instinctively and naturally assemble into Tribes for protection, support and healing.

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

On Losing the Spare Tire

Ed,

Congrats on getting your butt off the couch and getting back in shape! I did likewise last year (I am 45). I was 202 (5' 8") and got serious about my nutrition and fitness. I purchased the [brand] fitness program and lost 30 lbs in 90 days.

 

Boom! Back in shape. I can tell you that getting the washboard abs took more than 90 days but I did it. It's been six months since I started the program. However, my journey took a few detours along the way.

 

I suffered from lack of energy early in the training (very discouraging at times) but I kept studying about nutrition and listening to my body's needs.

 

I experimented with protein drinks, bars, supplements, etc.. Now, I simply eat nutritional foods that I like but in moderation. I also experimented with eating six small meals per day (instead of 3 large meals).

 

That last secret is something I found on a body building website and works quite well if your current diet is keeping you hungry.

I am now in the best shape since I was 25. Did you take your picture before you started the program? That is a good reference point for whenever you feel that you aren't making any progress. Wish you success on your new journey.

Thank you for sharing your process - and for your support.

 

My research indicates that spot reduction is ineffective on stomach fat. 

 

The best system I know indicates small portions, lots of water, adequate rest, cardio and total body strength training.

 

 

 

The Rewards of Losing Weight

 

include having an attractive body

 

and / or attracting one.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.buzzle.com/

editorials/3-11-2006-90944.asp

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

Pushes People Away

see previous

 

Ed,


Easy for you to say, three decades of implied co-dependency leaves it’s mark. I’ll just observe my current feelings of guilt, sadness and see what comes up.

Thank you for being a great teacher. I clearly see how I push away the people I admire and love.

OK.

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

Ideal Weight - Risk Computer

Thank You. I love the picture.

Congratulations on your improved health. A thought: Don't get caught up in "ideal" weights per someone else's height/weight chart. We're all different. Your "ideal" weight is different from somebody else who is also 5'10".

Check out this link


http://www.americanheart.org/presenter.jhtml?identifier=3027275#
 

Plug in your old Blood Pressure numbers then your new numbers. The changes are awesome. Keep up the great work.

Thank you for your support.

 

The risk computer results are very encouraging.

 

I am travelling into new territory and I am relying on books, my physician and my trainer as mentors.  So far, all agree that 175 pounds is workable and desirable.

 

To get there, all I have to do is to follow the system.

Wed, 26 Mar 2008


Wondering

see previous


Ed,


I just can’t stop wondering how many emails have you personally written and published on the left-hand side of FAQ.

Thank you for being so wonder-ful.

 

Or, thank me, I suppose, in case I'm the real author of the piece to the left.

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

How To Do That

see previous

 

Ed,


Great ... how do I do that? Never been to a single Tribe meeting, remember? Do you want me to improvise the rock process?

No, thank you. I have no wish for you to do anything in particular.

 

I hold you as perfect the way you are.

 

I know you are getting exactly what you want.

 

 


Codependency


can describe a person

who becomes an addict's caretaker.

 

Codependents typically:

Enable - allow the addict to continue

the addiction pattern.


Rescue - save the addict

from having to confront the consequences

of their behavior.

 

Worry - care about the addict's behavior.

 

 

 

Clip and Information:

 

http://www.karenzazzera.com/counseling

 

http://www.uaf.edu/chc/MentalHealth/

codependency.htm

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

Helen Fisher on Love and Medications - Video

 

Ed,

 

You might like this talk from TED.

 

Video:

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/16

Thank you for the link.

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

Wants to Help

see previous


Ed,

Ok, how about this one:

You can support me by letting me support you. What can I do for you, Ed? How can I help you?

You might consider forming a Tribe in your area.

 

Wed, 26 Mar 2008

 

System Results

see Challenge

 


Dear Sir Ed,

I'm attaching the Strategy Performance Report of a Stock Index System that I'm trading since 2004. The time frame to generate signals is 30 minutes and the instrument in S&P Nifty. Average number of trades the strategy generates is about 3 to 4 trades a month. The frequency is higher than what you have described in Point #1 in you reply to "Wants a Challenge" FAQ.

Now as far as actual trading performance is concerned it is nowhere near the simulated performance, still my equity has grown by a rate of 50%CAGR in last 4 years.

 

The reason for this is that there are still a bundle of feelings which are stuck up in my psyche as adversaries and I still use my trading system to feel them rather than dealing with them directly.

I'm reading your FAQ since 2005 and my ability to stick to my system has improved tremendously. Just reading your replies somehow resolves complex knots, the FAQ gives words to feelings.

Lastly I just want to conclude that:


1) I'm comfortable with my System.


2) Reading FAQ is helpful to me.


3) My Goal is to achieve zero variation between the signals of system and actual trades.


4) Experience the feelings directly that will come up from pursuing Point #3 and not use my trading to medicate those feeling.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Tue, 25 Mar 2008

 

Trading and Sex


Ed,

What an interesting workshop it is: Food, Sex and Trading.

I feel I have patterns among these activities. I like to drink a small half cup of red wine at dinners when markets are trending and my positions do well.

 

I like to have sex when trends are accelerating and my account equity line is shooting up.

 

At these moments, markets normally are at turning points for pullback.

 

I feel very nervous and aroused. Interestingly, my wife notices my patterns and shows her feelings with me nicely.

I am doing well since my last checkout. In trading, I am more willing to experience feelings when my equity is in drawdown and more willing to buy high and sell low.

 

Recent volatility in equity and commodity markets brings me a lot of heat. Fortunately, I have TTP and a tribe to support me to go through these feelings, so I have less tendency to play my dramas in my trading. I am growing to be a better trader.

My family is also trending upward nicely. We have less dramas and more channels to communicate our feelings. I am more willing to accept my wife and kids as what they are and use resources that I have to make things flow naturally. We start to play poker games with our friends during weekends. We also play mini soccer, football and baseball with neighbor kids, just for fun. We enjoy life more now.

Our tribe is also growing. Now we have four members and probably one more joins us soon.


We also are more willing to take hot seats and to go into some deep feelings. Although we don't practice the Rock process, we start to introduce the role play method. Personally I more like the Rock process. I think we can move into the Rock process at some point.

My weak spot is still my job. The company I join early this January is becoming a brand name in the software industry. But some dramas are happening there, such as politics, fear of falling behind (losing the competition edge) and becoming impatient in building a solid foundation. This might hurt the brand name and actually lose the competition to other big players in the same game. I feel I don't have the passion in my job. The purpose for me to have this job is to use my expertise to get pay to support my family before I start my own investment business. I am hanging there to have fun.

I am glad you make the process with your snapshot of less food and more exercises. You are our boss of the tribe family. Stay healthy. I love you.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

Congratulations on your successes.

 

 

 

Trading and Sex

 

These lovely ladies

 

are amusing themselves

by communicating their prediction

for the British Pound

 

or maybe it's heating oil.

 

Trader terms to describe

an advance in price

include, to mention a few:

 

Hot

Bull

Stiff

Firm

Bulge

Rising

Surging

Thrusting

and Climax.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://istef.vox.com/

 

 

Tue, 25 Mar 2008

 

Wants a Challenge

see previous

 

Ed,


Thanks for the response.

Define what you are looking for regarding proof of an automatic system. I can meet that challenge. I didn't include my backtest results for 2008 forward, hence the no match-up, however I can meet that challenge as well. If there are any other rules to the challenge let me know.

Thank you for your reply.

 

The challenge is:

 

(1) to demonstrate an automatic trading system that generates high frequency trading signals, where high frequency means the trades have a duration of a couple weeks or less;

 

(2) to show a track record of actual trades on brokerage house statements that match the signals in (1);

 

(3) to achieve near zero variation between (1) and (2) for a period of three contiguous months.

 

The absence of any meaningful response to this challenge is consistent with the theory that high frequency trading is mostly useful as a way to generate excitement and anxiety to medicate deeper issues.

 

 

 

Goals

 

Focus on your goals.

Just don't get caught focusing.

 

 

Clip: http://www.allposters.com

Mon, 24 Mar 2008


Wants a Lot

 

Ed,



(1) You told me one day, “that I have a lot to learn” – I want to learn whatever that is.

(2) I hit a complete low in my life (radially) and I don’t really understand why – I want to feel better and get motivated to at least pay back my debts soon enough.

(3) I sent my resume to literally dozens of trading firms – none replied. Perhaps you could take a look at the documents and see what’s missing, [One of them] is considering my resume for a trading position, however I doubt I’m genius enough for them.)

(4) I want to feel appreciated and accepted – something which I didn’t exactly get at Incline – maybe you where right. However, I feel it was overdone a bit, even as a part of a master plan. Just a feeling.

(5) I want to learn how to be a good father and family man

(6) I want to learn how to attract excellent girls and become intimate with them for the long term.

(7) I want to learn all the mind control techniques too (for the greater good). I can sense you use quite a bit of them

(8) I want to learn how to get a job done. I find myself hopelessly procrastinating and my batteries are dead.

(9) Most of all, I want clarity, wisdom and confidence so I can move on with my pathetic life (the pain I’m feeling now is something I recall from many years back – I just shoved it under the rug – now I’m disillusioned and it hurts)

(10) I want to be myself and find ways to protect that self. I witness a lot of personal attacks and challenging when I feel good and freely express myself (wierd).

I suppose you’d want to me to come to Incline and do TTP. Great, but since I’m broke I’d need a job to support myself. Maybe you could find me a truck to drive or perhaps mowing the lawn or whatever. I can do anything. If I do get a serious job elsewhere within a few weeks, I could save up and then arrive. In the meantime, maybe you could find a better solution for me. Any feedback or suggestions are greatly appreciated.

Thank you for getting back.

 

PS. I almost forgot

I want to TRADE!!! I mean BIG.

I can feel the magic of doing that – and I know I can be successful. Waiting to trade again is draining my life sources away.

You might consider:

 

- practicing appreciating and accepting others.

 

- asking some excellent women if they are willing to become long-term intimate with someone who wishes to be a good father and family man and who also wishes to attract many other excellent intimate women.

 

- taking your feelings about  <entitlement> to Tribe.

 

 

 

Arrogance

 

is an unrealistically high sense of entitlement,

sometimes accompanying a feeling of superiority

manifesting in an overbearing manner

and / or in presumptuous claims or assumptions.


 

 

 

Here are some examples

of what many people feel

lies well within their entitlement.

Health insurance
Higher wages
Prescription drugs
A better life
Better schools
To be famous
Better working conditions
Air Conditioning
Right to vote
2 weeks paid vacation
A house and/or a car
Better job
 

 

 

Attempts to Medicate

the sense of entitlement

can drive a society

into insolvency.

 


 

Other Thoughts on Arrogance


“For one to expect or ask things of others

that he himself, if asked,

would not be willing to do or give,

is the worst kind of arrogance.”


-- Anthony Beale

Horror book writer, American Author,

Poet and Editor, b.1974
 


“No one is more arrogant toward women,

more aggressive or scornful,

than the man who is anxious about his virility.”


-- Simone de Beauvoir,

French Writer and feminist, 1908-1986
 


“When men are most sure and arrogant

they are commonly most mistaken,

giving views to passion

without that proper deliberation

which alone can secure them

from the grossest absurdities.”


-- David Hume

Scottish Philosopher, Historian,

Economist and Essayist. 1711-1776
 


“Nobody can be so amusingly arrogant

as a young man who has just discovered

an old idea and thinks it is his own.”


-- Sydney J. Harris

American Journalist and Author,

author of the syndicated column,

Strictly Personal, from 1944-86. 1917-1986

 

 

Quotations and Clips:

http://thinkexist.com/quotations/arrogance/

http://ezraklein.typepad.com/blog/entitlement%20growth.jpg 


http://www.tinyscreenfuls.com/wp-content/uploads/

iphone-entitlement.jpg 


http://mymoratorium.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/

entitlement-society/

Sun, 23 Mar 2008


Math


(FAQ 3/7/08, Wants to Visit Incline Village Tribe) Ed says, "I wonder if you can solve this: 2^X = X^2"

I am not the sender of that post, but is X either 2, 4, or infinity?

See an earlier answer.

Date: Sun, 23 Mar 2008

 

The Feeling we Remember versus

The Actual Feeling we Experienced


(FAQ, 3/4/08, The Feeling we Remember vs the Actual Feeling we Experienced)

Ed says, "Thinking about feelings is not the same as experiencing them"

I certainly don't think THINKING about feeling is the same as EXPERIENCING them, and I also don't think REMEMBERING a feeling is the same as THINKING about feelings.

Please correct me if I am wrong: From my understanding of the Rock Process - via the website and via learning and also doing it several times with one of the members who attended the October 2007 workshop - we experience some feelings in the now, and then reconnect it with an experience we have in the past that triggers similar feelings in us.

 

Through this process we can identify the donor of some medicinal rock we receive, and we can then choose to forgive the donor and accept a more resourceful rock instead.

While on the hot seat, the process of having some feelings now (I am feeling very upset and angry now) and then reconnecting it with an experience we have in the past (e.g. I remember when I was maybe eight or nine my mother hit me with a stick and I felt a burning pain in my leg. I felt very upset and angry, and I almost cry and try to hold tears back) requires us to REMEMBER a feeling.

However, the studies from some psychologists (as I point out in the 3/4/08 FAQ) seem to suggest that the feelings we REMEMBER now may turn out quite different from the ACTUAL feelings we physically experienced at a different now.

 

Their hypothesis is that our mind can only store the major part of the feeling (e.g., in the example in the previous paragraph, pain). Because the mind cannot store every single bit of the detail, it reconstructs the scenario in a way such that it makes the most sense (I felt upset and anger). I wonder if you are aware of this difference.

My hope is that through my questioning I may get a better understand at the Rock Process when we do it at our local tribe, and at the sametime perhaps help you leading to other insights and further enhancements. Thanks.

In the Rocks process, as in everyday living, all your feelings and all your memories of feelings and all your feelings about memories occur in the moment of now.

 

You cannot have an experience in the past.

 

In the Rocks Process we do not forgive the donor, we forgive the rock.

 

We enact this by giving it back (for-giving it) to the donor.

 

Forgiving the rock is an essential first step in creating a space in which to store new and pro-active resources.

 

You might consider attending the next Workshop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 23 Mar 2008

 

Reading, Doing and Learning


FAQ, 3/24, Rock Process Experience) Ed says, " We learn some things best by practicing them: riding a bicycle, sex, the Rocks Process, etc."

That is precisely why I raise the question. I was on the hot seat for the Rock Process in our last tribe meeting, and the process manager attended the Oct 2007 Workshop. He asked many questions trying to identify the donor of the rock, but I can't recall my parents, or anyone, donating the rock to me. It seems my gut response (lose interest and quit at the first setback) is innate, perhaps something related to my Ceaserian birth that I may not have the toughness to persevere on my own, rather than something I learn from others?

Ed says, "Relying upon reading about such things may lead to confusion and sub-optimal results."

Relying TOO MUCH upon reading (or TOO MUCH anything) likely leads to confusion and sub-optimal results. Meanwhile, it seems some kind of reading may help lead to better understanding and ideas for further improvement, and if combined with actual practice later it makes the learning much more effective (e.g. reading about women's complaint on how men generally not appreciating their feelings during sex may lead to some aha ... then with this insight, actually testing the idea of genuinely caring about the woman's feelings during sex may lead to positive result)

Ed says, "We Learn To Do Many Things by doing them."

 

Yes, we learn to do many things by doing them, but before doing them it may be helpful to get an understanding. I don't think physicists generally don't just do physics experiments. (Otherwise, "theoretical physics" seems like an oxymoron) They generally come up with some hypothesis (through observation), and then develop THEORIES and HYPOTHESIS, and then do experiments to confirm (or reject) the hypothesis. (Seems like the case with your radial momentum too)

Sure, actually doing things is a crucial step in the process of learning, and we can never truly learn until we actually do it. However, I am not sure if you are taking it to another extreme where even discussing an obstacle encountered during the process and then seeking help and insights from other more experienced is a derailment of the learning process.

Thanks.

You might consider taking your feelings about <jumping on the bicycle> to tribe.  Then again, you might consider reading up on it a little more before you attempt it.

 

 

 

Percentage of people

who learn to ride a bicycle

by reading about it: 0%

 

 

 

Percentage of people

who learn to ride a  bicycle

by getting on one

and giving it a go: 100%

 

 

 

Clips:

 

http://www.bgcncm.org/westsidepictures.htm

 

http://www.disciplemexico.org/2006/10/like-riding-bicycle.html

Sun, 23 Mar 2008

 

Are You Really Angry


From a contributor (FAQ 3/2/08, Rocks Process - Implementing New Resources for Marriage), "Angrily you tell me to quit TTP completely as it is not my cup of tea ..."

Really? You really get angry? This member triggers some anger feelings in you? Or is it a way to help him stay with the process? Thanks
 

Anger is a powerful e-motion that can motivate action, particularly in regard to establishing boundaries.

 

Some people consider anger to be evil.

 

Anger is the real destroyer of our good human qualities; an enemy with a weapon cannot destroy these qualities, but anger can. Anger is our real enemy.

-- His Holiness the Dalai Lama

You might notice His Holiness is currently engaging some drama relating to boundaries.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <anger> to Tribe.

 

 

 

Anger

 

You might not have a choice

about whether or not you feel angry. 

 

You likely do have a choice

about which resources you call up

in response to your anger.
 

 

Sun, 23 Mar 2008

 

Bitterness and Charge


(FAQ 3/1/08, Likes the Circus)

Can you please elaborate on how bitterness indicates potential to discover a charge? Thanks.

The acid in the lemon (bitter) facilitates an electromotive reaction between the electrodes.

 

 

 

Lemons

 

can excite bitterness.

 

 

Clip: http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/

News/2007/July/16070701.asp

Sun, 23 Mar 2008

 

Looking Under the Freudian Slip


Hi Ed,

From a FAQ contributor on 2/5/08 (Cutting Off the Chains) about how he is angry at his mother for giving him a medicinal rock and running his life, he declares, "Here's my motto: She gave me my life, but she's not going to it away from me."

One thing that catches my attention is the leaving out of the word "take" (I suppose the person meant to say 'she's not going to [take] it away from me.") I wonder if it could be a Freudian slip that he is still not ready to not let her take away his life.

Also, another interesting observation is what I just write in the first paragraph. I just notice that I write "how he is angry at his mother 'for giving' him a medicine rock", and that is precisely what your reply that I just read ("Forgiving your mother and forgiving yourself for co-creating the relationship may help you notice the positive intentions of the bond.") I was unaware when I wrote it.

OK.

 

 

Freudian Slippers

 

 

Clip: http://www.fashion-incubator.com/mt/

archives/freudian_slip.html

Sun, 23 Mar 2008

 

Volatility and Sanity


Ed says, "I suppose I can take my feelings about <volatility> to Tribe for another look." (FAQ, 1/29/08, Magazine Covers)

I wonder what insights you get from taking your feelings about <volatility> to the Tribe, and if you are willing to share with us.

From what you say,

 

"This refreshing practice (take a volatility vacation) is, perhaps, an essential element in my maintaining a commitment to trading trends since 1969 and still remaining occasionally sane,"

 

it seems that it is quite difficult for any trend follower - even for someone like you whom I suppose must have made a lot of your feelings your ally already - to remain committed to trading trends AND still remain mostly sane.

I do not see overwhelming evidence that an obsession with maintaining constant sanity works very well in trading or in any field for that matter.

 

If trading is like dancing with the markets, and if the art of the dance lies in letting go of the mind, then requiring constant sanity might interfere with trading.

 

 

 

The Dance

 

is not always logical.

 

Trend Trading requires

releasing positions, beliefs

and other forms of sanity.

 

 

Clip: http://www.artbygaia.com/

Sun, 23 Mar 2008

 

Help from the University


Dear Mr. Seykota,

your ideas have brought insight in an area which, to my surprise, I discovered to be still unresolved. I thank you a lot, since I expect this insight to lead to a personal development and improvement.

 

I have read that you are working on your weight and fitness. I lead the Dept. of Sports Medicine at the University Hospital of [major city]. Some people even sustain that I am an expert in this area. I assume that you have access to the best available expertise, but it would be my pleasure if I could support or help you anyway. Of course, it would be even better if you don't need any help from me. But just in case ...

Cordially,

Thank you for your offer.

 

I am 61 years old and I am about 5' 10" tall.  I am down about 25 pounds since Christmas.  I have another 25 pounds to go.

 

I work out regularly on an elliptical exercise machine and also with a trainer 3 times per week in a gym with weights and with circuit training equipment.  I am putting on muscle mass and changing shape.

 

I eat lots of fish, nuts, chicken, olive oil, vegetables, fruits and salt.  I drink lots of water. I seldom eat white things - such as rice, potatoes, bread, pastries, flour or sugar. I take a multivitamin and vitamin C.

 

My numbers seem to be reflecting my eating and exercise patterns.

 

 

Measure

Jul '07

Mar '08

Blood Pressure

134/98

115/75

Triglycerides

51

48

HDL

45

51

LDL

120

114

Glucose

93

86

PSA

1.40

0.97

Weight

225

200

Waist

38

34

 

 

If you have any insights or suggestions, particularly on (1) losing weight around my stomach and (2) on maintaining energy level / carbohydrate balance throughout the day, I am open to your thinking, guidance and support.

Sat, 22 Mar 2008

 

Success Plan

see previous

 


Ed,

I have attached a very general outlay of my incremental success plan. I also tried to search my feelings on my excitement for trading. Searching my excitement brought out other emotions for me and I wrote them down in no particular order. Please understand that none of this is structured and I just wrote my feelings down as they came to me. I look forward to speaking again.

 

6 month plan

 

My six month plan involves me working at the current firm I am with.  I will become more acclimated to the methods of trading in which the firm specializes, such as arbitrage and spread trading.  I will also continue to stay aware of market movements and develop my ability to anticipate them.  I want to continue meeting people in the industry and developing a network of traders and business professionals in [City].  Within 6 months I plan to have $30,000 through previous real estate brokering transactions. I plan to start trading my own account within that time period.

 

1 year

 

In one year I would like to be trading my own money and continuously scaling up my position size in my trades.  I want to continue working at a trading firm so I may be able to reinvest all of my profits.  I would like to have matured a system, which fits my personal strengths.  I want to develop my expertise on managing risk and maximizing gains.  I would like to be in a comfortable enough monetary position where I can start making small investments in infrastructure such as software and hardware.

 

5 year

 

In five years I want to be trading my own account, with my own money full time.  I want to have all infrastructures in place to make my operation as efficient as possible.  I want to have a couple of partners / employees where we will have the resources to start properly analyzing market fundamentals.  I want to continue to develop my expertise in trading along with developing an extraordinary track record.

 

10 year

 

In ten years I want be able to take my record and abilities and solicit investors for my own hedge fund.  I want to put together a cohesive team of analysts and traders and form a strong team and support system. 

 

 

Feelings of Excitement

 

The excitement I feel when thinking about trading or simulating trading comes from a stimulating sensation in my chest that can be compared to an adrenalin rush. 

 

I have felt this same feeling when moving somewhere completely new and having the vast ocean of possibilities ahead of me.  I have also felt this feeling right before stepping onto the ice anticipating a very important hockey game, in which the stakes are high. 

 

I enjoy the feeling of being able to prove myself right and maintaining conviction to proceed through the unknown. 

 

I feel excited about the freedom and insecurity the market brings forth.  It excites me to know that part of the learning process involves gaining a deeper understanding of myself through my actions in the market.  It is also very calming and gives me a sense of relief to know that the only person responsible for my performance is myself and therefore in my eyes becomes a very secure way for me to make living. 

 

I feel very helpless when I have to depend on other people and becoming an expert becomes a giant step towards me becoming absolutely self-sufficient.

See Bear Stearns, below about some of the dangers of relying on the Fundamentals.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <partners> and <self-sufficiency> to Tribe.

 

 

 

Sat, 22 Mar 2008

 

Wants Mentoring


Ed,

I wasn't sure how specific you wanted me to get on my goals. If you want me to specify anything please let me know.

Thank you,

-----

I am very interested in your mentoring services. I'd first like to explain to you my situation in hopes that you might be able to tell me how to best utilize your services and get the most out of them.

I am 24 years old and I am a novice to trading. I have owned a couple of relatively successful businesses since I was 18. The last two years I have been a commercial real estate broker for a large brokerage firm. Through constant reading and soul searching I have been trying to find a career that is fulfilling. I finally believe that trading is truly the right profession for me given my personality, lifestyle, and nature. After realizing this I packed up everything I own into my car and drove to [City] in order to get closer to the heart of the industry. I am currently interviewing at a variety of firms. I want nothing more than to receive personal training from you and I want to know if you recommend that I immerse myself in the industry before receiving this kind of mentoring from you.

I have read around ten books on commodities trading and I am very confused about which styles to adopt for my own trading system. Besides book knowledge I have absolutely zero trading experience and I would really appreciate any advice you have me. Again, my goal is to get personal consulting from you and I wanted to know how you would respond given my situation. Thank you very much for your time.


Sincerely,

You might consider writing down your 6-month, 1-year, 5-year and 10-year plans - and a description of your feelings about trading.

Sat, 22 Mar 2008

 

Balls In The Air

Ed,

I've seen this before but am still so impressed with what it must have taken for him to get this down to a science.


Ya' know what else - this act looks a lot like the stock market… keeping lots of balls in the air at the same time !!!

 

video

Thank you for the clip.

Sat, 22 Mar 2008

 

Mike Oldfield and "Why"
 

Ed,

Last weekend I read a Mike Oldfield interview to a Spanish magazine:

The journalist says: You have never recorded classic music. Why have you deci ...
 

Oldfield replies: Why?, always "why", I don't like "why".

Later, the journalist says: That sounds grandiloquent, cosmic, why ...?
 

Oldfield replies: Why, why. why... Stop asking "why". I don´t like "why". I don't answer to "why".

Maybe he doesn't like whys guys.

Fri, 21 Mar 2008

 

Trading


Ed,

 

Do you still trade for yourself or manage other people's money?

Sometimes.

Thu, 20 Mar 2008

 

Trading Indicators


Hello Mr. Seykota,

I work at an investment bank that trades. One of the traders lent me his home study course he received from attending [a class]. I have set up the indicators on my charting programs and it looks pretty robust. Do you have any experience or opinion on using these indicators?

You might like to run your own back tests and compare the results against those on the TSP pages.

Wed, 19 Mar 2008G

 

Greenspan on Economics
 

Ed,

 

This from Greenspan in The Financial Times

 

"... these models do not fully capture what I believe has been, to date, only a peripheral addendum to ... financial modeling - the innate human responses that result in swings between euphoria and fear that repeat themselves generation after generation with little evidence of a learning curve."
 

Inside every Fundamentalist is a Trend Trader longing to come out and play.

Wed, 19 Mar 2008

Trading Legs - Video of Robot


Hello Ed,

Trying to get back my trading legs.

Video: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6581785480379487596

How are things with you?

Thank you for the video clip.

Wed, 19 Mar 2008

 

True Leader

 

Ed,

 


Ed says: Late in December, 2007, in response to various questions about breaking addictive patterns, I commit to mastering my own relationships with food and exercise before continuing to offer suggestions to others.

That was brilliant.

Thank you for your support.

Tue, 18 Mar 2008

 

Little Boy and His Dog

 

Ed,

 

Here is a cute video:


http://youtube.com/watch?v=d_EZDBVuOk4 

OK.

Wed, 19 Mar 2008

 

X^2 = 2^X

Ed,

 

Here is the solution:

 

Three roots:

X = {2, 4, -0.766664696}

I wonder if you can derive the third "root" analytically, without resorting to squeezing down on the answer - or looking it up on the net.

Tue, 18 Mar 2008

 

Using Candlesticks - Video

 

Ed,



Here is an expert's chart of world markets that should hopefully bring on a smile to set the mood for your trading day.


http://img215.imageshack.us/

img215/9470/techfl5.gif

OK.

Mon, 17 Mar 2008

 

Bear Stearns Collapse

Joe Lewis / Jim Cramer Buck the Trend

 

Ed,


Just look at Bear Stearns this morning. Joe Lewis the Bahaman investor is a little less wealthy as his 9.4% share of Bear Stearns has a loss of 1.16 billion dollars.

 

On the way down, on March 11, Jim Cramer passionately recommends staying with Bear Stearns (BSC) - at around $60/share.


 

 

Thank you for the clip.

 

The basic principles of Trend Trading are:

Trade with the trend

Ride winners

Cut losses

Manage risk

Trend  Trading does not get you in at the bottom or out at the top.  It does, however, help prevent the fundamentalist nightmare: buying the dip and selling the collapse.

 

 

 

BSC

 

Red Circle indicates date and price

of Jim Cramer's recommendation

to hold on.

 

 

Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8

Sun, 16 Mar 2008

 

It's Nice When Everything Works - Video

 

Ed,

 

Here is an interesting video

Computer simulations of complex devices (such as in the video) and of trading methods are relatively easy to to produce.

 

Actual working equipment and actual trading systems are somewhat more difficult to produce.

Sun, 16 Mar 2008

 

My System


Hi Ed,

I'm trading Turkish Stock Exchange Market (ISE).

 

My system is based on price but nothing else. It is a trend following system.. I'm trading blue chips. I can trade long or long-short.. I trade 15 minutes before the closing bell. I do not day trade. I'm sending you only LONG (% 36 annual return) and LONG-SHORT (%53 annual return) reports. and comparison to ISE 100 Indice. If you are interested I can send you the details of my system.

For the last few months, I'm working on Dow Jones, QQQQ, Parities, Commodities and American stock market especially blue chips to make an accurate system.


With my system the performance is not good on these markets. There are some reasons especially for American stock market: Because of the dividends and the because of the characteristics of the stocks they can jump or fall and they make big gaps.

4 months ago me and my wife moved to [City]. We will be living in America more than 3 years.

I think I need some help. I would love to learn how to trade mechanically American markets or work as a member of a trading group or to have some tips to make some arrangements on my formula to trade the markets I mentioned before.

Thank you.

Yes,  some American stocks pay dividends, and they jump and fall and make big gaps.  Other ones that do not pay dividends also jump and fall and make big gaps.

 

 

Sat, 15 Mar 2008

 

High Frequency Trading and Commission Costs

see previous
 

Hi Ed,

In response to your post on Wed, 12 Mar 2008 regarding High Frequency Trading and Commission Costs I am attaching a document that contains back tested results of a computerized trading system I developed last year.

The document contains stock trades from years 2002 thru 2008 and also contains my actual trading account results from January 2008. I began live trading in January with a $10,000 account using a position size of 2 maximum open positions and reinvesting profits. The account has returned 68% as of Friday.

Please feel free to follow up with any questions you may have.

Best Regards,

Your high frequency "back test" shows about 90 trades on various stocks over a two year period. The trade durations range from a few days to a few weeks.

 

I see no evidence of using an automatic system to generate these trades from a list of all stocks and I see no match-up between theoretical trades and actual trades.

 

Your email is typical of those I receive in response to my standing challenge.

Sat, 15 Mar 2008

 

Diversification of Lag Parameters



Dear Ed,

Following our telephone conversation last week...

I understand that we are looking for a situation where lag diversification within a system produces a significant performance benefit; as per your analogy we combine 2 average height children to get 1 tall one.

I am not finding this by diversifying across lag parameters in the Support/Resistance system. The following is a summary of my research to date:

There are references to the S/R System performance matrix on the tribe site, which is here:

 

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/

TSP/SR/index.htm



My first research (already discussed) creates different combinations of systems by varying the trending metric, while keeping the trading metric constant (combining systems down a column of the matrix). This shows little significant performance gain. You made the point that simply changing the lag required to flip the trend definition does not significantly alter the character of the system and, as a consequence, does not provide much diversification. As the trading metric determines position exit, and exit is the main determinant of trading frequency, this seems logical. To check, I looked at the number of trades in the system while varying the trending metric parameter. This number is almost static. Clearly varying the trending metric, while keeping the trading metric constant, gives systems of a similar trading frequency. Although the trend flip occurs at different times.

My next research looks at creating combinations by varying the trading metric, while keeping the trending metric constant (combining systems across a row of the matrix). This combines systems with different trading frequencies, but the same trend flips. The results for this test show no performance gain at all.

I conclude that neither of these methods provides enough lag diversification to produce much benefit. The S/R system is designed to capture trends. However the definition of a trend is dependant on the time frame used to measure it, e.g. there may be a short term down trend within a long term up trend. To get the maximum diversification between component systems in the combination there needs to be the maximum difference between lag parameters. Additionally, there is a limit to the frequency of the shorter term system as transactions costs start to impinge upon performance.

To achieve maximum difference between parameters it is necessary to alter both, i.e. combine systems along a diagonal of the results matrix.

There are two ways to do this: combine systems from the top left with those from the bottom right (NW-SE); and vice versa (NE-SW). Intuitively, I feel that the systems on the NW-SE diagonal make more sense because they have a balance in their parameters, i.e. both long or both short. Note that the NE corner (trading and trend metrics nearly equal) is the realm of always-in-the-market type systems.

I perform “hunt and peck” tests on several combinations from both the NW-SE and NE-SW diagonals. The results are below. In some cases the ending equity of one system is significantly larger than that of the other, due a higher rate of return. When the equities of the individual systems are combined that of the higher return system tends to overpower that of the lower return one, reducing the diversification. To allow for this I perform some tests a second time, increasing the risk budget of the lower return system to give a similar ending equity.

In only one case (130/10 combined 380/90, in purple) is the bliss of the combined system clearly greater than that of both of the component systems. I find it interesting that in all the other cases the bliss of the combination systems is much closer to that of the best performing component than the worst. This is highlighted by the difference between the combined system bliss and the average of the component system bliss values (values in the “Diff” column). I believe this positive skew is due to the benefits of diversification; however it does not provide the stand out results we are looking for.

Given this, I conclude that there is little chance of finding a combination of two S/R systems that produces a significantly higher bliss value than that of either of the components.

These tests only examine bliss (ICAGR/Max Drawdown). There are other measurements of system performance (e.g. ICAGR/average drawdown) that may show gains.

I am happy to call you to discuss further research on this topic, or commencement of a new topic, if this suits.

Regards,

Nice job on the research !

Sat, 15 Mar 2008

 

Feelings About Soldiering

 

Ed,

This is a rambling stream of conscious that I wrote in my journal. If you have any insights I would appreciate them.

My Aha - I feel a heightened sense of awareness from being deployed and flying a single engine airplane over enemy territory. Add the possibility of having to drop Iron or eject. Maybe I'm just an adrenaline junky and this is Fred's way of engineering my fix?

Even though I don't have answers, I feel more at peace after having written things down.

Thanks and Peace,
 

-----

Feelings about Iraq

-Stupid fucking war
-those people need help
-GI Joe needs help
-Brotherhood of man?


Bush is a fucking moron
Children are the answer
Go or Stay, doesn’t matter
I’m a pawn
Not a warrior
Not an Ace
Not important
Just a pawn
Miss my kids
Hate being away from my family
Stupid fucking war
Hate being away from my family
Stupid fucking airlines
Love flying, love challenges, love learning
Hate working for robots and Yes men
Hate traveling
Plant me in the ground right here

Give me a coke, a meeting and let me hang with my tribe


My daughter won’t recognize me

One fucking motor in the F-16


-Pre-pubescent Army pukes scared shitless, counting on me

Using a fucking targeting pod to spot IEDs, What the fuck, over?

I’m going cuz I always go

Fucking Fred, what do you want me to feel? What do you want me to learn?

Brotherhood! The food tastes better
The laughter is better
The senses are stronger
I feel more alive

Want to feel alive.

[A buddy] sees suspicious activity on a roof. I see people having a party? At 15,000 feet who the fuck knows.


Positive enemy ID? PID my ass.

I’m a pussy sleeping on a base flying my little jet.
What a coward I am.

How can I protect some poor SOB in a forward operating base in Baghdad?

Stupid fucking war. 20,000+ wounded. Burns, limbs, TBI’s, concussions

What the fuck over?

Fuck you Bush

I don’t even give a fuck about being away from my family.

No wonder they hate us. Even the innocent get killed by us and the insurgents.

Stupid fucking war. Stupid fucking insurgents.

Why doesn’t everyone just shut the fuck up and go home?

I’ll be with my family and you be with yours.

Stupid fucking ideology.

20,000,000 religions and only 1 god

Pisses me off


Vote with my feet. And miss all the fucking Fun?

Fuck you Bush

I don’t do it for you, Mom, Apple pie, or the USA.

I do it for me.

I do it because my ego needs to feel important.
Look at me.


Big fucking fighter pilot……….stupid fuck

If you were brilliant what would you do? You‘d do what your doing because it’s what you do and you can’t explain why!

You’re the smartest dumb ass on the planet…….Get a life

You could quit but you won’t

The stupidest fucking thing is you don’t even know why…..Pussy.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

US Soldiers at Camp Victory

 

assemble in a circle

to commune and pray

before going on patrol.

 

 

Clip: http://thescroogereport.wordpress.com/

2007/07/10/prayer-before-patrol/  / Reuters