© Ed Seykota, 2003 - 2008 ... Write for permission to reprint.

Ed Seykota's

Frequently Asked Questions

Home  ...  FAQ Index & Ground Rules  ...  Tribe Directory - How to Join

TTP - The Trading Tribe Process  ...  Rocks  ...  Glossary

  TTP Workshop  ...  Resources  ...  Site Search  ...  The Trading Tribe Book

TSP: Trading System Project  ...  Breathwork

Associates Program  ...  Chart Server  ...  Contact Us  ...  The Whipsaw Song

 

Oct 1 - 14, 2008

 

<==  Previous  |  Next  ==>

 

 

Note: The intention of inclusion of charts in FAQ is to illustrate trading principles - The appearance of a chart does not imply any kind of indication or recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out of any positions.

 

 

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

 

Programming with Functional Language

 

Here you go Chief.

 

Microsoft is about to release F#, a functional  language.

 

Moore's law is not delivering faster processors anymore - It is delivering "Moore" of them.

Thanks for the info bytes.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

 

Wants to Advertize on FAQ

I really love all the great material that you have on your site. It seems like we have the same ideas on what we want to accomplish with our sites. I would love to speak with you about possibly working together to help us both be more successful and make you more money, with out lifting a finger.

If you are interested in speaking please give me a call so that we can get this show on the road. Do you work with any strategic partnerships? If you have a chance you could send me over your ad rates as well as some traffic statistics.

Thank you for your offer.

 

I do not accept advertizing or swap URLs.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008


Financial Crisis hits Japan - Comedy
 

Ed,

 

Here is some comic relief in this middle of this strange play.
 

Financial Crisis hits Japan !



Following the problems in the sub-prime lending market in America, Northern Rock, Bradford & Bingley etc in the UK, uncertainty has now hit Japan.

In the last 7 days Origami Bank has folded.


Sumo Bank has gone belly up.

Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of
its branches.

Karaoke Bank  is likely to go for a song.

Kamikaze Bank nose-dived.

Samurai Bank is soldiering on following sharp
cuts,

Ninja Bank has taken a hit, but remains in the black.

500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop.

 

Analysts smell something fishy going on at Sushi Bank where the staff fears getting a raw deal.

OK. So I suppose the Judo Bank is selling off Ki assets.

 

 

 

Loan Officer at Judo Bank

 

negotiating a floor price.

 

Clip: http://www.daylife.com/photo/

03GT1x347H6O9

Tuesday, October 14, 2008


The Competition is Not That Tough

 

Ed,


The competition just got a lot less tough. We will soon be competing with large financial institutions whose largest shareholder is the US government and all the bureaucracy that will bring to them.

In the short term they will be nimble because the have some short term empowerment, but it will soon deteriorate into the stalemate the exists in all governments.

Can you imagine what those board meetings are going to start looking like!

OK.

Monday, October 13, 2008

 

Wants to Help His Brother



Mr. Seykota,

My brother  has a managed futures business and has been trading commodities for several years. Over the past 8 years he has been developing a trading system that I believe has potential.

 

Now, he is looking to sharpen his strategy and I thought that you may possibly be able to help him. Please take a look at his CV, and if you are interested I will have him send over his models. Thank you!

Warm Wishes,

I wonder what kind of relationship you have with your brother.

Monday, October 13, 2008

 

Economic Brain Therapy

 

Ed,

 

I thought you'd find this of interest.

 

It's an article about using economics theory to study the flow of information in the brain.


http://www.physorg.com/news142791894.html 
 

That seems to be an interesting twist on using your brain to study economics.

Monday, October 13, 2008

 

Wants personal Attention

Hi Ed,

I got your email from the site- http://www.seykota.com/tribe/ 

I am a Trader and would want to know more about Trading Tribe and its benefits. Please help me out in this.

Regards,

If you wish personal attention, you might consider reviewing my terms for private consulting, at the bottom of the Ground Rules link, above.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

 

1929 crash versus 2008 crash

 

Hello Ed,

 

I hope you have been doing well in this terrific market decline.

 

I've been busy shorting, and doing extremely well, particularly this past week. You and your readers may find these video clips interesting, and observe the plethora of similarities between the 1929 crash and this 2008 crash.

 

Most amusing is video 5 where Jesse Livermore returns home to find his wife emptied out the house because she thought he was wiped out, and would need to sell the house to raise money!

 

http://www.precisiontradingsystems.com/1929%20crash.htm

 

It seems that the bulls who said " The markets are different this time" are truly proven to be wrong.

 

One thing that is making me nervous is the bans on short selling sweeping the world, I hope they will not be stupid enough to ban futures and options.

 

Kind regards.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

Congratulations on following the trends.

 

One difference between 1929 and 2009 is that in 1929 the FED is only a teenager. 

 

Economic units are still relatively independent. More recently, the FED subsidizes enormous social programs that are economically un-sustainable.

 

In 1929 the market succeeds in clearing out the speculative enthusiasm of individual traders.

 

In 2009 the market may attempt to clear out the speculative enthusiasms of the social collective.

 

 

Saturday, October 11, 2008

 

Exponential Crossover Exercise

 

Hi Ed,

 

I now found out that my probs are du to the fact that the exponential lags in your exercise are being computed by using (Time_Constant + 1) / 2

 

Originally, I didn't want to read the readers feedback before having come up with a solution myself. Thus, it took me a while to find out this "workaround".

 

Why didn't you use instead TC=50 or TC=150?

 

Since we are coding from scratch, why do we use an "imprecise" alteration of the original ExPLag formula that is only valid in case of ramp-equivalent MA as you state?

 

Should be as easy for a computer do use TC (which is precise) instead of (TC+1)/2, which is imprecise - right?! Or is there a special reason for that?

 

Peace

TC and (TC+1)/2 are both precise.

 

I prefer using TC.

 

Industry standard, per consumer-grade software, seems to be to use (TC+1)/2.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

 

Urgent Message

 

Dear Ed,


Please Chief this is an urgent message:

Few months ago I entered a terrible drawdown in my trading account.

I went through three consecutive drawdowns!

The last one was even over well any historical back tested and live drawdown seen.

I had 5 investors:

Two were on a fixed interest rate and were the big one. I called them and told them what is happening. They panic a bit and ask me to pay back everything and remaining interest. I of course paid back the capital plus all interest to calm them and get rid of that terrible pressure and being in the uncertainty of future performance.

The last three who were on a risk agreement went crazy and started to blame me they told me that I had to stop earlier and could not accept to have lost the previous profit and the risk capital also part of the margin capital.

 

They started insulting me menacing me saying that I was an irresponsible person and went around telling the all community that I went crazy etc and managed my business like a donkey. I did not argue and never answer the thousand why they were throwing to me.

For more than 15 weeks I went bananas, isolated myself and did not speak to anybody from those days.

I sleep an average of 2 h per night waking up in the middle of the night many times in panic from those days.

At a certain stage having lost all my friends my girlfriend and my money I wanted to kill myself.

My prayers and reading of the FAQ and the book of Jessie Livermore kept me a bit live (reading what happened to him few times and what he did after).

About one week ago one of the three investors came to see me and asked me to start again with an initial small capital and that he will be back office to check the performance and x check the risk agreed and try to recover all losses and even the earning we had. I accepted because I had nothing else to do but I realized after that that I am in a terrible mental state to trade as you can imagine especially doubting my method now after having seen what happened before and having not slept properly for weeks even months. I lost also 8 kilos because I can not swallow anything.

My method includes all basic rules cut losses and run profit even optimizing the winners and trend following money management controlling height of position with a fixed ratio bet per position. I back-tested manually for many hundred of trade traded in demo for over a month and then live for a very long period. But ... I have doubt now.

I was also ashamed to contact you earlier because I probably should have stop trading well before and verify the method and or me for sure had to have a rule for that, that I did not have in my trading plan.

I had no back office and vague Uncle point until I reached it of course.

Even though I saw the bigger and consecutive drawdown I kept triggering and triggering until I reached that terrible level in my account.

Chief I feel terrible and need your insight please.

Ed, you are my only contact and the only person who understand so well psychology behind our job and I need all your experience facing such problem that you must have seen many times around you so I turn to you and ask for your insight and advice for this type of situation.

The investor told me also if I see that you are doing ok I will inject more and more money during the process.

 

I am facing now a terrible mental state have a method which I am scared to use even if it respect all the basic rules and I am unable to correct and x check what went wrong with my actual mental and physical state. May be its me and not the method I am not sure of anything today.

Being so lost and isolated having nobody around to advise me I turned to you as a tribe member for some insight and advise, Ed.

Sorry for writing in English Ed you know that I am French speaking and here do not practice a lot English.


Kindest regards to you and yours.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your feelings such as shame, and your feelings about how your clients are treating you to Tribe.

 

The positive intention of your trading might have something to do with Fred wishing to experience these things - and entraining drama to facilitate this.

 

You might also consider developing resources to bring your clients' expectations in line with the volatility your methods deliver.

 

 

 

The Positive Intentions of Shame

 

include bringing your behavior

in line with others' expectations

 

 

Clip: http://www.ad3pt.org/images/Shame_opt.jpg

Friday, October 10, 2008

 

Important New Financial Terms

 

Ed,

 

I get a chuckle out of some of these. That someone would send them to me hints that we may be near a collective aha! Hope you are doing well.


CEO -- Chief Embezzlement Officer.


CFO -- Corporate Fraud Officer.


BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.


BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.


VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.


P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.


BROKER -- What my broker has made me.


STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.


STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.


STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.


FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.


MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.


CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.


YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $640 per share.


WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $640 per share.


INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.


PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.

 

Thank you for your deft-initions.

 

How about this one:

 

FED; Federal Reserve System -- a non-federal agency with no reserves that does not follow a system.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

 

Trading Tribe Questions

 

Dar Sir:

I don't know who reads these or if you actually really speak to Ed on a consistent basis but I just wanted to tell him "thank you" for his incredible insight in the Market Wizards interview he gave.

 

I'm a 24 year old kid and I basically have no life outside of trading, I was born to play basketball and trade and both of them consume me in a positive way.

 

I even traded my Dads 401K when I was sixteen and it was going well until the 1099 came in the mail and then the fun was over. Anyway I didn't mean to give my life story or anything but I just wanted to express my sincere gratitude to Ed for his words in that book.

 

It had a pretty profound effect on me and I was also amazed at how well-versed he is in human psychology. I have come to believe that trading is about learning about yourself and not about a magical indicator or system (no disrespect Mr. Seykota).

 

People approach the market like it's a winning lottery ticket that they just discovered but the problem is they don't love to trade. I love it and I love to figure out how to analyze "people being people" and the money is incidental to how great the game is.

 

When Mr. Seykota was asked if someone could be transformed into a winning trader and he responded by saying “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.”

 

I probably read that comment twenty times. I also loved the comment that "people get what they want from the market".

 

Anyway I'm sure he gets thousands of letters like these but I was wondering if I might be able to meet him sometime and thank him. Or if that's not possible then could you let me know if he ever plans to speak anywhere and I'll fly there and attend it.

 

You probably think I am strange but I honestly got more helpful information from that brief interview than ninety percent of all the trading books out there I have read. Lots of traders love to aggrandize themselves and their achievements but Mr. Seykota was different.

 

He was so honest and I felt like his interview was written to me personally. Anyway like he says in that interview "traders trade and letter-writers write letters" so I don't expect him to be able to make time for me when he could be doing a lot of other productive things but I just wanted to say thanks again and hopefully I get to meet him sometime.

Warm Regards,

Thank you for your encouragement.

 

I read the mail and write the column myself.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

 

When the Man Comes Around - Johnny Cash

 

Hey, Ed, I have found this great piece of music. Forwarding it for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd9p9e9Ibz0

Best regards.

The man seems to be in the neighborhood.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

 

Banking Collapse

 

Ed,


What do you think about - (1) Banking collapse: Lehman Collapse, Merill, Bear, AIG, WaMu, Wachovia ... I feel "easy money" being short!

You might consider taking your feelings about <easy money> to Tribe.

Monday, October 6, 2008

 

Fiat Empire - excellent video about the FED

 

Ed,

 

It's 58 minutes long and I think it's worth watching.


http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5232639329002339531 

Thank you for the URL.

Monday, October 6, 2008

 

Thanks a Lot

 

Hi Mr. Ed,

 

I hope evrithing is fine for you.

 

I have spent a lot of time reading you faq.

 

You have made me stronger, thanks a lot.

You are welcome.

Monday, October 6, 2008

 

Stupid Americans

 

Ed,

 

You might like to see this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUfpaGzeP6k 

Americans might have an addiction to government.

 

As such they might not be intellectually "stupid" as much as emotionally dependent.

 

The man in the video might not be intellectually "smart" as much as emotionally angry.

Monday, October 6, 2008

 

Tribe Meting Report

 

Dear Ed,

Here's a report of the first meeting of the [City] tribe.

Before the meeting, I experience uncertainty and nervousness about conducting the meeting as I have between 8 and 15 people that express interest to come. This motivates me to seek help, prepare and develop a written agenda and some notes to follow. The result is the meeting flows, stays on track and we complete the processes on plan.

A total of 8 people, including myself come to the meeting.

To open, I welcome everyone and thank them for coming. I state my intentions for the tribe, my role as leader and indicate that I'm new to this too. I mention that today you get a flavor of the tribe and TTP and you may leave as you wish, if you feel it's not for you.

I ask to go around the room and give a short introduction about yourself andwhat you do.

I read to the group the following. (I also send this out to anyone that expresses interest in the tribe):

-----

A consistent winning trading system consists of 2 parts:

1) The "Mechanical Part" - involving technical analysis, following trends, riding winners, cutting losses, managing risk, entries, stops and other aspects of the mechanics of trading.

2) The "Organic Emotional Part" - involving you - the trader. Your emotions and feelings affect your ability to stick to your system.

"Your real trading system is the set of feelings you are unwilling to experience." - Ed Seykota

The Trading Tribe Process (TTP) assists in improving part 2 of the system and facilitates personal growth.

The "Mechanical Part" isn't covered at the meetings.

-----

Next I cover TTP and basic concepts like SVO-p and Now.

I ask for the drums to be passed out, each member takes a drum and beater and we start drumming.

I lead through the Trading Tribe Workbook training directions in the back of the Trading Tribe book. I read instructions aloud from the workbook and answer questions before each process. We work each process to completion.

I call for a check-out after each process, and this works well. The check-out comments reinforce that the processes are working and it's good to hear each person's perspective of what's happening. I notice comments similar to participants at the workshop in Reno. Members report they are "getting it" and see how this can benefit them and their trading and to improve their communication and relationship skills.

One or two people comment that the drumming helps them focus in the now on the meeting and separate themselves from thinking about other things.

One member says that the "Sending and Receiving Forms" exercise seems easier than the first two (Thoughts and Feelings).

Another person comments that they think this will help them be a better listener and sense others feelings easier in family life and other relationships.

When the "Developing Forms in a Small Tribe" process comes, I ask if anyone is ready to work, and a member steps up with "yes".

I ask the person to say something about the situation that brings up the feeling. The sender says that these feelings come up on Monday morning when the markets open as they start day trading. I say "OK, go for it". The person begins to act out the process of day trading using a couple of chairs for props.

 

The actions are of boredom, and shifts to intense watching of the screen, shifts to intense poising to click in an order while staring intently, shifts to clicking in the order, shifts to a relief and pacing around with worry and concern. Re-focusing on the screen, following every tick, intense watching, click in the closing trade, joy and excitement and boredom once again. The sender repeats the sequence of actions over again. There seem to be many emotions that arise in this sequence rather than just one. Just when the receivers cheer on one emotion, the sender moves on to another one. The sender acts out, at times frantic, sometimes sits, gets up, stands, paces, stomps, sits again, and so on.

The receivers begin to encourage the sender to keep doing that, do it over and over, keep shifting, keep experiencing new and different emotions. After a while it seems to keep going on without much progress. The other receivers stop encouraging and just watch. I wave my arms to signal the receivers to "talk it up". They encourage more for a while, but die down as a new emotion is expressed on a different "phase" of the day trading enactment.

 

I notice this and suggest to the sender to locate one feeling and stick with it, experience that feeling deeply and fully. The sender at first sticks with one emotion of the cycle, but them shifts to the next one again. I encourage on with just what the sender does now, and say "yes, keep going with that", "good job", "go with it". After a few more cycles,the sender sits down and just relaxes in apparent contentment.

 

I take this as a sign that it's complete. I ask if the situation feels different now as compared to before the process. The answer comes back, "yes, I feel better about this. This is what I go through everyday day trading."

During check-out the sender gets a number of "good-job" comments from the receivers. One member comments that it seems like a real "ride" day trading and seeing this scene makes him sure that he doesn't want to trade like that. :-)

We take up the drums and the final drumming concludes with a period of silence and serenity.

We complete the meeting in 4 hours.

One member leaves about midway through due to a migraine headache.

Members seem tired and "spent" afterwards. One member comments about that the length of the meeting being "long" and shorter meetings are preferred. Other members agree. They mention they understand the necessity of the training processes.

 

They bring up that they have other responsibilities, etc. I respond that we may be able to complete meetings in less time now training is complete, and if only a few people get chance a to "work". We also have a discussion about shifting the start time to 2:00p or 3:00p. I'm open to whatever works.

The next meeting is set for next Sunday, Oct. 12. Afterwards, the schedule changes to meet on the 2nd and 4th Sundays of the month.

4 other people not at the first meeting express interest in the next meeting.

I wonder how to train newcomers, and let those already trained to proceed directly to "Developing Forms in a Small Tribe", "Honoring the Judge", "Re-integrating Forms" and the "DIM Process".

I see some options:

1) Schedule a separate training meeting and invite a few trained members to come and help train.

2) Invite all members and run through the first 2 training processes "Sending and Receiving Thoughts" and "Sending and Receiving Feelings", then jump to "Developing Forms in a Small Tribe", "Honoring the Judge", "Re-integrating Forms" and the "DIM Process".

I am inclined to option 2.


Thank you for calling to congratulate and encourage us. The timing of the call worked out well.

Thank you for sharing TTP and for all your help and support.

Sincerely,

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your own feelings about <wanting to manage correctly> to your next meeting.

 

If a headache appears at a Tribe meeting, you might consider going with it as an entry point.

 

 

 

A Headache

 

can provide an excellent

point of entry.

 

 

Clip: http://tell.fll.purdue.edu/JapanProj/

FLClipart/Medical/headache.gif

 

Monday, October 6, 2008

 

Home Alone

 

Ed,

Without the benefit of a Tribe, I am left to practice TTP principles alone. I have no other alternative. I’ve tried everything else, and my spirit won’t settle for mediocrity. So home alone I create the space and time to feel.

I return to the feeling most overwhelming. Sadness. I roll up in a defenseless position, head beneath my hands. I crank the tightness in my gut and with my elbows on the floor pound my fists up and down while I experience a deep sense of sadness. I experience this feeling all the while hearing the support of tribe members. “Good, crank your gut more, pound your fists, grimace your face. More.” I ask my self if I am willing to enjoy the feeling? I am, and I do.

I lie back and continue to allow myself to feel. I realize that I am about to get sick. I go to the kitchen and get a big plastic bowl and return to feel. I start to dry heave. I don’t particularly know why. After 4 or 5 heaves the feeling dissipates. I ask myself if I am willing to experience this feeling of sickness, and am I willing to enjoy it? I demonstrate that I am by returning to the bowl with a big, strong, tight, smile on my face as if to show that I am definitely ready to enjoy this feeling. The feeling dissipates.

I recognize that I feel angry. I place my head into a pillow and yell. I yell repeatedly. I recognize that I feel safer yelling so that others can not hear me. I remember what I read in TT book. Society conditions us to not feel. I flash back on a recent time when I told my son to stop yelling. I feel sad, and angry. I continue to yell into the pillow. I turn onto my back and kick my feet in the air, while continuing to yell. I yell until I can not.

I lie on my back exhausted. I ask myself if I am willing to feel all of these feelings again, and enjoy them. I do.

Thank you.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You can use the DIM (Do It Myself) process to deal with some issues. 

 

You might miss other subtle and important issues.

 

For example, you might consider taking your feelings about <yelling in front of others>, <confrontation> and <setting boundaries> to Tribe.

 

 

 

Positive Intentions of Yelling

 

include expressing anger

and setting boundaries.

 

 

Clip: http://www.lawyersandsettlements.com/

articles/00462/verbal-abuse.html

Sunday, October 5, 2008

 

TT Book

 

Hi Ed,

 

I just wanted to let you know I received the Trading Tribe Book. I really enjoyed the read. I don't know why but I think humor is going to be part of this process for me.

 

And I misplaced my book for half a day after completing it.

 

Thank you

Misplace = successfully hide something from yourself that so you don't have to deal with it.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

 

Seeking Blocks Attaining?


Ed says, "Seeking sometimes blocks attaining." (FAQ 5/23/08, To the Point)

Can you please give us some example and tell us more about it?

 

hanks.

 

If you have a k-not relating to developing a relationship or a trading system - you might avoid succeeding in these areas in order to realize your real intention of holding on to the feeling of wanting.

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 5, 2008


Simulate Emotional Interactions


Hi Ed,

A FAQ contributor says, "I anticipate reading your new models that simulate emotional interactions." (FAQ 5/22/08)

Your response is, "So far, some of the runs seem fairly realistic," along with caption "Emotions Interacting in a Simulation Model" on a chart.

It sounds very exciting! I wonder if you can tell us more about this simulation model, thanks.

I'm working on it.

Sunday, October 5, 2008


Future->Now


Hi Ed,

While the PowerPoint slide show on your 5/3/08 FAQ (Thoughts on the Art of Living - Movie) is lovely and some wonderful quotes, two of them stand out in particular though:

"The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams." "I look to the future because that's where I am going to spend the rest of my life."

I think now, after reading your website for so long, I find that if we substitute the word "future" with the word "now", the two quotes sounds even more powerful to me.

Thank you wholeheartedly for sharing your wisdom in such entertaining way through the website with us.

Thank you for bringing the message into the now.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

 

Tribe Report - Measureable Improvement

 

Ed,

Our Tribe members report further measurable improvement in several areas.

 

A member resolves a long-lasting family problem during a single hot seat.

 

A second member reports being in psychotherapy for over 2 years. It takes us 20 minutes to identify her problem and some 30 minutes to resolve it.

I wish I knew what I am doing. But anyway, it looks like I am doing it right.

The Tribe is full with 7 active members. I start a second Tribe, same city, different meeting schedule, different members.

May I visit the Tribe in Incline Village as pollinator?

Best regards,

Thank you or sharing your process.

 

 

Friday, October 3, 2008
 

Smoking Gun - The Rule of '04

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/

business/03sec.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Ed,


Check this out. It is the smoking gun of this whole mess.

You might consider noticing the greed of 04 naturally propelling the enactment of the rule.

Friday, October 3, 2008


Filing the News


Dear Chief Ed,

While jogging this morning (during the release of nonfarm payroll statistics), I think about "filing the news."

Then I think about avoiding the news by jogging and avoiding the feelings associated with the news.

Then, I realize I do not want to be controlled by the news and if I do see it, I want to control it (by understanding or analyzing it).

Instead of avoiding, I intend to feel:

1) the feeling associated with the news

2) the feeling of being controlled by the news and what other people say

3) the feeling of wanting to control the news (by understanding or analyzing it)

Whether I get to the zero point or not, I intend to RELEASE whatever is left.

Thank you

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking the feelings you are avoiding to Tribe.

Friday, October 3, 2008



Emotional Log

Ed,

My associates appear to be deeply fearful. I do not recall ever seeing so much doom and gloom.


 

Trend systems do not intend to pick tops or bottoms.

 

They ride sides.

 

If you want to pick a bottom, by the feel of it, you might consider tuning in to the despair channel -  that may be a more precise indicator than generic "gloom and doom."

 

 

 

Despair

 

accompanies

 

 

 

the abdication of hope.

 

 

Clips: http://www.maskofpriam.com/despair_3.jpg

 

http://www.atpm.com/13.10/tim-allen/

Steps%20of%20Despair.shtml

Thursday, October 2, 2008


Request for Interview

 

Mr. Seykota,

 

I'm writing an article about how to trade in today's volatile market and would like to interview you for 15 to 20 minutes over the phone, if possible. Would you be available for an interview, I'll need to do it rather quickly. Thanks, looking forward to hearing a response.

You might consider examining your own feelings about needing to do it rather quickly - as a foundation for your understanding about volatility.

 

 

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

 

Directory

 

Hey Ed,  It looks like you put me back on the Tribe Directory so I am going to go with the flow and try to spark up some new meetings. :)

 

Sincerely

OK.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008


Coin Toss Position Sizing


Hello Chief,


1. One Coin toss every DAY gives you 1.2 times your bet-size on heads and you lose your bet-size on tails. (akin to short term trend following)

 

2. One Coin toss every YEAR gives you 2 times your bet-size on heads and you lose your bet-size on tails. (akin to long term trend following)

 

And given 250 DAYS in a YEAR. If one chooses case 1 - one's pay-off will be much larger on compounding after (say) ten years than in case 2.

 

Arranging the bet-size like you have. Is it possible to play 2 and be as profitable as 1?

 

What needs to be added to the game to make 2 as profitable?

 

Warm Regards,

 

I do not see how (1) is like short-term trading or how (2) is like long-term trading.

 

Double or nothing at the end of the year seems a bit volatile, even in these markets.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

 

Contrary Indicator

 

Ed,

 

This seems like a bottom to me.

 

 



 

 

 

Thank you for sending the magazine cover.

 

I still do not see much evidence of emotion on magazine covers, such as faces and postures full of despair.

 

 

 

The Red Circle

 

indicates the date of emailing

by the contributor