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December 1 - 10, 2009

 

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Contributors Say

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Ed Says

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

 

Trading and Lottery

 

Hello Mr. Seykota,

I would like to seek your enlightenment on the following hypothesis:

Good traders do not buy lottery tickets?

Premise #1:
According to my understanding of the field of psychology, the act of buying lottery tickets reflects (and fulfills) the human emotions of hope and greed on a very basic level, irrespective of the fact that the odds of winning the jackpot are heavily not in favor of the lottery players.

Premise #2:
Good traders, by definition, are able to obtain handsome financial gain through the utilization of their talent and hard work. Hence, it is assumed that good traders do not have the motivation to play lottery.

My question is as follows:

I do not trade on a full-time basis and would consider myself only as an “average” trader based on my past trading performance. From time to time, I also buy lottery tickets with the hope and greed in winning millions instantly.

For someone like myself who trades without much success and plays lottery repeatedly, does this combination of behavior reflect the lack of confidence on my part that, on a subconscious level, I do not believe in my own capabilities to be able to make millions by trading?

Your comments / feedback would be much appreciated. Thanks.
 

You might consider taking your feelings about <trading> and <playing the lottery> to Tribe

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

 

Breathwork Follow Up

 

Dear Ed,

I thank you again for your openness and for the fantastic experience of the Breathwork. I feel that the process is still ongoing.

Maybe you remember my question about how to train and improve the abilities during trance work (depth, perception, empathy). I wonder if you have any ideas about this.

Notions about trance seem to pass more easily between persons in trance.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

 

On the Path

 

Dear Ed,

 

I have The Trading Tribe book but no Tribe.

The book is fantastic. I expected a lot and it is over delivering.  I am reading it slowly. I try taking steps toward right Livelihood. I savor the process.

Something happened a week ago. I go to AA. I have been sober a little over 3 ½ years. I attended an out of town meeting in [City] called the [Name].

Most meetings now I think of TTP and I work at being a good receiver. I work at being a good sender too.

I broke down while telling a story of how it was. I located a tight spot in the pit of my stomach while talking about my son, when he was about six, my wife who covered for me, said Daddy has the flu, when I was struggling in my addiction… I felt the Field of Acknowledgement…and I contributed to it when listening closely to others, without judgment.

 

I let Fred communicate with CM and some new feelings were released. Tear ducts were activated. Others shared in this and, in a sense, I was on the hot seat. After the meeting many came to me, moved, and encouraged me to come back, to share again. That was more of the Field of Acknowledgment.

AA is my mini-Tribe. I have begun to realize there are many Tribes, conceptually. Our church, my company and clients, the boxing club, cycling club, runners, swimmers…readers of science fiction!

I want a stylish Math Hat!

I understand SVO-p, as much as I can at this early stage of learning and growing.

Attending a workshop is yet another unfolding, and if I qualify, I would like to know more.

I am about to learn about Forms. A friend, when asked what he reads for inspiration, said “Lila.” I’m reading that now, and writing on cards words and concepts from The Trading Tribe book.

I had to wash out the tea pot to make new tea.

Fredian psychology…I feel it is like a handbook for the mind, the limbic system, experiencing feelings…I am in a remote town in [State]…[Name]…I see abundance, I believe in process, and I love music. I am a drummer.

 

Trading is better for me. I study Covel’s course Trend Following. I read FAQ on The Trading Tribe, and I feel grateful to have discovered this source code that helps me join my Fred and my CM to create wisdom.

I connect logic to my CM and feelings, survival…to my Fred. I listen for other Fred’s in the under Fred, and that is just awesome! Who knew this was possible! I am not confined by the rules of hard science when working TTP. I am aware that TTP breaks down when DIM is attempted. So AA is my quiet surrogate until I find a Trading Tribe.

Your introduction to TTP in the book explains that TTP has elements in common with EST, Eastern and Western religion, 12 Step Programs, and much more. Again, I am grateful to have found this material and it is helping me find more abundance and live a fuller life. I bought fresh vegetables and threw out much junk food, and exercise vigorously again.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

 

Breathwork Feedback

 

Ed,

 

I am still integrating the insights from the weekend at Ed's.

Going in, my form is a smirk like I'm so much better than anyone in this room. My feeling is a fear of being found out as a fraud. What I want to learn is how to stop bullshitting people and be honest and genuine.

I see two images in the work. First, I'm crawling between piles and piles of dead bodies in a concentration camp--could be German, could be Russian, hard to tell the two apart. I notice a feeling that I belong with the dead rather than the living. In the second image I see myself hurting a woman while I'm having sex with her -- I choke her, I slap her face, or my penis gets so big that it tears her up. I notice a feeling of guilt.

On the drive home, I recall my parents' stories of living through Communist and Nazi terror. I pull off the road a couple of times--I can't see through my tears.

Monday morning I wake up with a fever, headache and dizziness. I don't remember the last time I felt so sick. I recall the feeling from my parents' stories--it is survivor guilt. I reckon I inherit this feeling from them. As far as I can tell, they never deal with it.

 

I build a mental chain: I medicate sadness with guilt, and I medicate guilt with joylessness. I feel that I can't enjoy life when so many people are dead. I shouldn't even be alive, much less enjoying life. This is consistent with my pattern of giving up on projects as soon as I can see the possibility of success. I notice a feeling of debt I owe to the ones who didn't make it. I wonder if the financial debt I'm struggling with is a stand-in for it.

I lie down. I notice breathing very deeply. I worry about hyperventilating, then accept the worry and the breathing. I wake up an hour later and recall seeing George Soros. I recall his childhood history: "A Hungarian-born Jew, Mr. Soros was 14 when the Nazis invaded his homeland. He avoided the fate of many Jews by posing as the godson of a Hungarian official overseeing the confiscation of Jewish properties."

 

I notice that Soros's experience includes posing as something he isn't and successfully bullshitting people. I recall many layers of judgments I have on him: he made a deal with the devil; he was doing what he could to save himself; he worked against his own people; nothing justifies deals with the devil; I wasn't there so I shouldn't judge; that's the kind of time it was; "that kind of time" explains nothing; etc.

I notice that all these judgments are gone. George Soros did what he did, and does what he does. It isn't good or bad. This is just what George Soros does.

I call Ed to share this insight and my symptoms with him. He offers me what he calls a "quick fix." The term surprises me -- "fix" is not what I typically hear from Ed. His suggestion is to try reframing my feelings about the ones who didn't make it. I can be their champion and accomplish all the things they didn't get to do. I immediately notice that I'm feeling better. By morning, my symptoms are gone.

I reflect on Ed's suggestion and decide that I don't want to implement it. I don't want to *avoid living* my life on account of the dead, but I don't want to *live* my life on their account either. I want to grieve for them, but my life belongs to me.

I am grateful to Ed and the other Tribe members who help me work though my issues this weekend. I am looking forward to the second meeting of [Name] Tribe next week.


Assets:           $554,301.19
Liabilities:      $522,143.58
Net:                $2,157.61
500oz goal:    $573,375.00

Thank you for sharing your process.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

 

Breathwork Feedback

 

Dear Ed,

 

My recall from the Breathwork:

 

Eyes shut flat on my back. Relaxing sequentially from head to toe. I start fast deep breathing to the pounding beat of loud music and drumming. I sneak a glance at the clock (11:20 AM) curious about whether this Breathwork technique really suspends consciousness.

I am sinking like a scuba diver wearing a weight belt. It is not quite dark yet I cannot make out my surroundings. "This isn't working" I think to myself, still breathing mightily to the drums and music that are somewhere far away yet also blasting right in my ears. I am aware of movement then nothing. There is nothing.

 

Something in my mind instructs me to conjure up
an image of a big pine tree trunk nearby. Then more of them and I am in a forest. I run. I have four legs and know how to run on them. It is fun. I know not where I go yet I keep running for the joy of it.

My hands cramp. My arms move. My legs tingle. I accept it all and continue the journey.

An idea spawns. Oh yes. I have a mission. I am on a journey of discovery for the Tribe. My goal is to explore the boundaries of success, intimacy and feelings, all of which trigger feelings of fear or aversion in my day to day life and impact my behaviors. I work with Tribe members for hours before this Breathwork journey to explore and experience (memorize) the forms and feelings that associate with my fears. Now in another world of alternate consciousness, I generate those forms and feelings to help me explore the
issues.

From time to time in this state I automatically focus on deep fast breathing. Otherwise the state is self-sustaining.

I travel. I am underwater swimming over a coral reef and alongside fishes. I visit an overlook atop a high precipice (a real place that I know), recognize danger, meet others and walk with them away from the danger.

The visions recede. Eventually I slowly sit up and stay in that position for some time. My guide, who has been with me the whole time, brings water and helps me stand and walk to the kitchen table upon which are crayons and paper. I am in a daze of sorts, yet feeling very peaceful and good. I do not want to talk to anyone. I line up the crayons by color and start drawing a man looking out of a glass doorway at a field. The glass is shattered. He may step through at will.

I learn that success is an illusion in all but the narrowest terms, such as achieving a specific goal. I imagine that a judgment about my success exists in the minds of others - my parents, my employers, my spouse, my children -
in reference to me. Then I judge my own behavior in terms to these imaginary judgments of others. This generates a fear of achievement lest I underwhelm or outright disappoint my imagined critics, which I judge they judge to be bad. These compound fears impact negatively my behavior resulting in poor performance. Thinking about stack of judges makes me laugh. My fear of success has evaporated and I have a weapon (laughter) should it reappear.

I learn that intimacy, in contrast to success, is real. I fear intimacy as a result of hurt feelings from relationships in which another person withdrew their willingness to engage. During Breathwork I face the danger (the cliff) and turn aside to closely and intimately engage with others. Interestingly, the danger of stepping off of the cliff is also the danger of avoiding intimacy (loneliness). Now, I feel free to engage and free to let go. Others are of course free to let go too. It feels like I have wings when it comes
to relationships.

I learn that my feelings are often suppressed. In fact, prior to Breathwork and even with my TTP hot seat experiences, I have difficulty identifying feelings from thoughts. In the two days since Breathwork I have several instances of feelings rising into consciousness, identifying them, and letting myself experience the feeling fully and enjoyably, even when the initial feeling was unpleasant. My understanding of TTP has grown considerably as a result of the Breathwork experience.

After the Breathwork experience I return home to my wife late in the evening. She is unusually relaxed, cheerful and considerate. It is as though my visions and experiences are communicated to her even in my absence.

Thank you Ed and Fellow Tribe Members for facilitating this extraordinary experience!

Thank you for sharing your process.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

 

The Rest of the Story

 

Hi Ed,

One of my affiliate partners offers [a] video of a lecture by Jack Schwager.  In the video, Schwager talks about how he came to interview you as a Market Wizard.

Then he tells a (second-hand) story about you having dinner with an economist and a knife falls off a table.

What comes next sounds like the punch line to a cocktail party joke:

Knife lands in economist’s shoe, you ask why he didn’t move his foot, he says “because I thought it would stop falling.”

Pretty funny!

Maybe I’m gullible to even have to ask but do you recall such a dinner?

Stories about me seem to have lives of their own.

 

 

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

 

Sizing

 

Hey,

I was wondering how you use your system on small account. Would the drawdown not wipe them out.

If you have, say, a $10,000 account, then a 1/2% risk is $50.  Since the nominal risk on a contract might be in the range of $2500, you would schedule 50/2500 = .02 contracts.  This rounds to zero contracts or no position.

Monday, December 7, 2009

 

From Getting-Centric  to Giving-Centric Behavior

 

Dear Ed,

 

Great week. I am able to log 33 hours working on becoming a better trader, while still working current career. I do quite a bit of writing with a major focus being on right livelihood, I send some to FAQ.

 

After not being accepted into Breathwork I make a strong commitment to focus on what I can give. This commitment, like a lot of Trading Tribe experiences, is subtle and life changing. While I still have goals, my focus is not on what I get, rather than it is what I can give. I sense the effect of this change in perception immediately. Things are easier and I am more motivated. I can always give, before there is constant negotiation of is this worth it, should I sacrifice this time or not. In the past, it is more complicated and I exhaust unnecessary energy trying to control the future. I now am more at peace and working harder. How much can I give? The mental negotiation is gone. Just do it. Push myself with a goal of helping others now and good things happen.

There is more acceptance of emotion and more clarity. When trying to accomplish something great and thinking of myself, I am confused. There is a judgment of my emotion. When there is lack of purpose, I confuse my emotions with being my purpose.

 

Here is an example:
1) In the past, the goal might be to create an excellent trading system and then I can feel good about myself. This sounds simple, yet results in problems. If you read it, again, the goal is to feel good about myself. This means that I do not want to feel bad. There is a strong tendency to block out bad feelings. "My goal is to feel good, why don't I take it easy tonight? Why don't I relax and avoid bad feelings". This creates incentive to not deal in reality. Consistently pushing out any "bad" feelings until the end, when the goal may or may not be accomplished. Is the bad feeling now worth the secure and good feeling in the future? This is question does not have a helpful answer. Bad feelings are friends just the same.
 

2) Currently, my intention to create an excellent trading system to serve others. I want to take care of my family. I want to be a resource to others who are trying to live a better life. I want to be a role model in the trading community and in my home community. I want to help others protect and grow wealth. Now, I do whatever it takes to do that. I willing experience the bad feelings, self doubt, fatigue, as these are my friends. I have the "willingness" to experience whatever it takes to get there. The goal may or may not happen, yet, I am stronger and am closer to living a life worth living.

My eyes still get teary writing the statements above. I am passionate about it. I am happy working to better understand how to protect and grow wealth. Many issues simply melt away, others I am still working to experience and accept.

Last week, I read quite a bit and spend time on Trade station. In my studies, I can see how anyone can get whatever they want out of the market. There are some many different opportunities, methods, systems, stocks, futures, etc.. This confuses me. Which way do I want to go? If I wanted to jump ahead, I could most likely decide on a system tonight, yet I feel it would be empty as I still have so much to learn.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Monday, December 7, 2009

 

Working on the System

 

Dear Ed and Support Team,

There are some changes to my file.

 

The first is that I have removed the section which included the original signal details. I have done this because when I tracked the contract rollovers in two monthly markets I realized that using two spreadsheets was unwieldy and actually hid any requirement to re-scale on rollover. Also, I wondered what was the point of measuring myself against the original signals when they pre-dated my workshop commitment. So, I have set aside the details because I am still interested to see what the hypothetical performance would have been but I do not really consider this to be variance now.

The second change is that I have added a reconciliation section after the variance section. This is short but it breaks down how my P/L has been effected by variance in bet size, entry price and exit price. This section really makes it obvious how my results are effected by not following the rules.

The final change is that I have added Signal "Type" columns to allow for Entry signals and rollovers.

I feel quite encouraged by this version but I need to work out a good place to track roll slippage. I realized this week that my rollover rules might not be practical for the monthly contracts but decided to leave them in and measure against them for now and see what happens in the Dec / Jan roll.

Most of my quarterly contracts are due to roll on Wednesday morning. I have prepped my tracking spreadsheet and practiced quickly updating core equity and feel excited to see how everything works!

I am thinking about what new goals I can set for myself now.

Thank you for your support.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Monday, December 7, 2009

 

Mini-Carta

 

Dear Ed,

 

I thought this would interest you.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/

ambroseevans_pritchard/6744787/Its-a-return-

to-the-Star-Chamber-as-Europe-finally-tramples-

Magna-Carta-into-the-dust.html

 

Thank you for the notice of the passage of another of our foundational documents.

 

 

The Magna Carta Libertatum (1215) limits the arbitrary power

of King John of England.

 

In 2009, some 794 years later,

he gets his powers back!

 

Clip: http://www.princeton.edu/~lawjourn/

images/Magna%20Carta.jpg

 

Monday, December 7, 2009

 

Accepting His Size

 

Greetings all,

After last month’s commitment report snafu, I decide to be a fraction more realistic and a fraction less ambitious.

You may recall that my desire was to begin trading my suite of systems with $2M.

Since I’m an order of magnitude away from this figure (more or less), I decide to use what I’ve got and change my tactics.  (i.e. you operate with what you have, not with what you wish you have)

After last month's missive, I receive some excellent feedback from some fellow support group members and I discover some new ways of looking at the ‘problem’.

For instance, one of my systems signals a long trade in Cotton futures but the entry-to-stop risk is greater than my system allows. Normally I would pass on this trade and get all uptight about it.

However rather than grumbling and complaining, I instead take a position in BAL (the Barclays cotton ETN) which allows for granularity in the position sizing.

I keep an eye out to see how accurately the ETN tracks the physical and I keep an eye on Barclays share price. Looking at these two should provide me with an early indication if the ETN is in any trouble of default. So far the tracking error is minimal and UK: BARC is doing ok - and more importantly the position goes my way (so far).

I also research new ways that one might trade a smaller account without having to take risks beyond the 2% of equity mark.

I have lots & lots of good ideas to research.

My speculative trading account for the month of November is up 3.7% (in my home currency).

Considering that most of my trades are US trades and therefore denominated in US dollars and with my own home currency on a rampage against the US dollar, I can’t complain about that return. In fact I’m quite happy about it.

. . . . still waiting for a good sized US dollar rally though! (Yeah, yeah, I know, be careful what you wish for.)

Since I won’t report again until the New Year (assuming I’m around), I’ll take this opportunity to wish everyone a very Happy Christmas holiday break and may you all have a great 2010.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

In Golf and In the Markets

 

you have to play your shot

 

from your current situation.

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.babble.com/CS/blogs/

strollerderby/lg_woods_ap-01.jpg

 

Monday, December 7, 2009

 

Wants to Choose a Broker


Dear Ed,
 

It is not secret there are a lot of broker company? Some of them called kitchen it is mean they don't take order to the markets. Some manipulated with price because the soft or platform make easy to make it so I Heard that they can take price against you. By all of them . I would like to give some advice by choosing the broker? BY which criteria need to choose?

Thanks in advance.

You might consider starting by choosing an English teacher.

Monday, December 7, 2009

 

What They Say

 

Dear Ed,


From some people I heard that there are some differences of markets? For example they say the Forex markets are not suitable for trading than other for example stocks markets.


Or I heard that the Richard Denis also chose the markets. Before trading I am not sure it is so because I read it from some article.

 

In that is why I would like to heard your idea about this.

You might consider taking your feelings about <what they say> to Tribe.

Monday, December 7, 2009

 

Breathwork Feedback

 

Ed,

 

Thank you all for your support this weekend, in helping me identify the issues going in and integrate them on the other side. I am particularly grateful to [Name] for his question, "Didn't this all happen a long time ago, like in the 1940's?" However one judges the existence of time, my problem is precisely that in all these years no one in my family has dealt with memories of loss, or even spoken about
them much.

In 2007, on his 75th birthday, my father tells me about his aunt who killed her two children during German occupation. Her Jewish husband is MIA at the front. She worries that if the Germans have taken him prisoner he may tell them that his non-Jewish wife is hiding two half-Jewish kids. She opens a chimney valve on her wood-burning stove one night and locks the house from the outside to let her children, 5 and 8, die of carbon monoxide poisoning in their sleep. 65 years later my father says he used to judge this woman but not anymore -- he says perhaps she's done the right thing. He says there was no use in all three of them dying if the Germans had found them out. This is the first and last time I hear him talk about his cousins' deaths. He shows no emotion when he tells me the story.

My mother tells me of fleeing the German advance on an overcrowded refugee train. She is 8. She remembers people on the platform who are unable to get on the train. She remembers them going from window to window, begging complete strangers to take their infant children on the train, so that at least the children may live. If there is any feeling in her story, it is her guilt that she was on that train and not on the platform.

So yes, it's been a long time. High time I face these feelings, instead of passing them, unresolved, to another generation.

 

Thank you for helping me.

Thank you for sharing your story.

 

 

 

Right Livelihood

 

When you commit to supporting your wife and child

by, say, getting a job,

 

a lot of your personal problems

and story about your personal problems

 

may simply disappear.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.faffa.eu/ENG/

family_faffa_fun.jpg

 

Sunday, December 6, 2009

 

The DIM Process (Do It Myself)

 

Dear Teacher,
 

I feel a desire to be part of a trading tribe so I start one in [city].

I have a question on process. Given that the tribe has only one member right now, how do we conduct the meetings. Is a one member meeting same as DIM.

Which leads me to a question on DIM TTP. I have been trying to understand and locate the physical manifestation of my feelings.

 

For example, I pick up my kids from school, and they start to argue with each other. And their behavior is trending down strongly. I do not know whether I should participate in this trend or just let the trend exhaust itself. Anyway I remember TTP and I try to observe my feelings, and immediately I feel a pain in my ears, head ache, an urge to shout, and urge to lock gaze with my kids to intimidate them. And immediately following this observation I notice that my feelings decreased in intensity quite dramatically. I suggest to my kids that all of us are tired and we should take a 5 minute silence break. (stop loss ?)

A similar decrease in intensity of feelings is observed a couple of times in last 2-3 days as soon as I focus on physical sensation. However, I am not sure if it is an AHA. I do not feel a corresponding increase in wisdom. It definitely feels better. I want to know if it just means I am sweeping feelings which I should experience under the carpet.

 

I also notice more clearly now that I am very bored with official work most of the time, I surf the web (including your site), solve physics problems, analyze algorithms or just listen to music for better part of the day. However, I am able to do my work very well. I just delay it enough to make it almost impossible for myself, and then something clicks and I just do it. Although when I think back on how did I do it, it seems it was pure luck that I stumbled upon the solutions.

I feel a strong desire to just be with my wife and kids. To Just sit around and talk. Watch a movie. Go and play tennis. Or go for long drives. But I have so far not found any who would pay for doing these activities. I think trading can help me attain my goal of spending more time with my kids and wife. I open a trading account and start trading (June 2009). I use a simple system. I go up 10% and then down 10% in last 5 months I am exactly where I started.

 

But I miss out on big trends for reasons mentioned ad nauseam on your site. Yes nausea and upset stomach is one of the feelings I felt as my profits disappeared.

I also notice (since I have been paying attention to my feelings for last 6 months) a strong desire to be taken care of. My father passed away when I was 5. But analysis of his death as a root cause does not seem to help my feelings. I do not really remember crying when he passed on. So a few weeks ago, I sit down thinking about his life / death and I end up feeling very sad and cry a lot. I felt much better immediately afterwards, But I wonder what, if anything, did my CM learn from Fred. Is CM supposed to learn anything from Fred. Or is the point to let Fred be aware that CM cares ?

The funny thing is, for most of my life, everyone in my family and my circle of friends has really looked up to me as a perfect guy. And I feel like a hypocrite. I feel like a master manipulator who is able to manipulate everyone around him, to do what I want and yet they like it! And this is my most major concern regards starting TTP given that I am aware of my tendencies to get people to do what I want them to, I feel I need someone more versed with the process (like you) to keep me honest and not harm other people in our Tribe.

Again, writing this mail, seems to make me feel better, I wonder if its just the nature of DIM to make us feel warm and fuzzy without any real change.

I love you. I respect the life you live. You remind me of the poem "road less traveled".

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

A Tribe can provide a place in which you can bring up and work through some of your issues.

 

 

To Get The Gas Out of the Champagne ...

 

 

Reduce The Partial Pressure of the

CO2  Around It

 

 

 

Clips:

http://www.prospectwebsite.com/uploads/

Champagne%20bottle%20new.jpg

 

http://www.john-goodman-blog.com/

champagne-cork/

 

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Trend Followers Mantra

 

Ed,

· I am a trend follower.

· I stick to The Essentials.

· I operate with zero variance from my systems.

· I listen to my feelings and enjoy them even if they seem unpleasant at first.

· I experience boredom with trading — a typical feeling that trend followers experience.

· I am ok with that and avoid using the market to add drama to my life.

· I seek right livelihood and good relationships and ways to serve.

· I renew my commitment to these principles daily before looking at the markets.

· I love my life.

 

If your mantra prescribes boredom, I wonder how you deal with feelings of excitement, anticipation and fear, greed and sadness.

 

 

 

A Kaleidoscope, Like the Markets

 

can generate endlessly changing patterns

 

that excite the eye, mind and emotions.

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.artsjournal.com/

dewey21c/kaleidoscope-collage2.gif

 

Sunday, December 6, 2009

 

Seeking Perfection


Greetings Support Team,

I am happy to report that I'm sticking to my stops on my winners. Of course, that's easy to do when you're paper trading!

I do have a serious question to ask, however. Do you all have one system for trading everything? Let's say through testing it appears in rolling 5 year, overlapping back-tests that one set of parameters of moving average crossovers performs best on metal / mining stocks and an x-day breakout worked best on say semiconductors and a change in direction of a long term moving average worked best on financials and that all of these systems were not curve fit but reasonably robust do you trade different systems on different instruments / commodities?

I would be most appreciative of any feedback / advice any of you would care to proffer.

Thank you for your continuing support.

Everything works sometimes, everything works differently than everything else and nothing works all the time.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <the perfect system> to Tribe.

 

 

 

 

The Search for Perfection

 

indicates a flaw in the searcher.

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://sports-odds.com/images/stories/

bar-rafaeli-swimsuit-model.jpg

 

Sunday, December 6, 2009

 

Noticing Anger


Dear Tribe;
 

My account is up 5%. Gold had a little shock on Friday, and that knocked down my return. I notice that Friday tends to be a bad day for gold.

"There cannot be a greater mistake than that of looking superciliously upon practical applications of science. The life and soul of science is its practical application..." Isn't that a great quote? It's from Lord Kelvin.

 

That is what I like about TTP - it is a practical, yet scientific way to deal with life's problems.
 

I am trying to apply it to my life. Anger, I noticed am feeling slowly angry, as I have my boundaries invaded . It doesn't bother me until it happens after several incidents The anger is layered - nine times out of ten I do not say anything - and the problem goes away. But very occasionally perhaps four times a year I lose my temper. I am trying to notice and clearly signal that my anger is growing, so that I do not allow it to sneak up on me.

5 days Gym
No travel

You might consider taking your feelings about <anger> and <invasion> to Tribe.

Friday, December 4, 2009

 

Say How it Is

 

Dear Ed,


Thanks for the inspiring piece of music "Say How It Is". I listened to it and also to The Whipsaw song looking for inspiration as I go through some "whipsaws" and drawdowns in my trading account.

About the self-fulfilling prophesy I have always regarded myself as very intelligent and lucky in material things like job position, money, business, trading skills, etc.

Yet I have also always held this belief that I cannot be lucky in everything and so I should not be so lucky in romance. Somehow I sort of believe that both are mutually exclusive.

That's how it is. I am currently in a relationship which is not mutually satisfying and I feel our relationship is slowly falling apart. She doesn't correspond to the kind of girl I have always dreamed about dating and marrying. She can also feel it and then I just guess we're going nowhere with this relationship.

I dream about being happy and lucky in everything, from spirituality to business and romance.

You might consider taking your dreams to Tribe.

 

 

Dreaming About an Ideal Mate (or Trade)

 

is not quite the same

 

as assuming ownership in the now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.coverbrowser.com/image/

saturday-evening-post/544-1.jpg

 

Friday, December 4, 2009

 

Trading by Emotion
 

Dear Ed,


A new tool appears for day traders:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=gWXL6tp7ZKk&feature=player_embedded

 

Like many ads for day-trading paraphernalia, this one has a conspicuous lack of information on back-testing.

Friday, December 4, 2009

 

Ed-You-Cation


Hello Mr. Ed

I thoroughly enjoy & learn a lot from FAQ (stands for Frequently Accessed Quotations for me!) The pictorial representations and accompanying relevant "ED-ucative" quotes truly makes it easy to grasp & understand wisdom.

The combination of pictures & words together have a superb effect.

Thanks again for all the ED-ucation.

Thank you for your support and encouragement.

Friday, December 4, 2009

 

Model Building

Ed,

The model  is my first very raw model.  It is a pure “quantity” model and is NOT a look-like.

I like to send you some new updates as I am progressing. I am collecting some data to have meaningful “real” figures and building.

I like to merge the below models in one single one:
1) Ed's Capital model (with the distinction between capital and consumer goods / tools)
2) a Supply and Credit expansion Model on fixed fractional banking (I see it in your list in the website)
3) a purchasing power model for a single Country: a link between a capital model and money model (one of the few formulation on [Country] economics Purchasing Power I am aware of. It is much clear then the standard textbook Keynesian models). I am using this as determination of price levels.


Is this what you refer? I am also wondering how you formulate it.

I also working on a “Democracy System Cycle” model.


I like to build a system which links together voters, welfare state, politicians, national debt, and political consensus.

You might consider building a series of simpler, mode-specific models.

Friday, December 4, 2009

 

Doing the Math

Dear Support Team,

I have now updated the entry prices using CSI data, this was not too difficult but has identified some discrepancies. The CAD, SF and JPY contracts quoted by my broker are all inverted compared to CSI prices eg USD/CAD in CSI is 0.9217 but is quoted as 1.0850 (or 1/0.9217) in the FX market.

 

I don't see this as a current problem and I actually prefer the way my broker quotes but I will need to work-out some checking procedures to make sure I am not experiencing more slippage than necessary.

 

The second discrepancy is in the CAC index, my broker uses monthly contracts whereas CSI only recognizes quarterly rolls. This may be because I am not using CSI correctly. I realize in producing this version that I need to track the instruments that were active at the time the signals were given so I have added this detail to the file.

 

Thirdly, and most annoyingly, there is a bug in Excel which seems to deduct a day from my dates when I move the file from one PC to another. I thought I had resolved this but I noticed it again on Sunday night.

Underneath the trade details I have created a list of discrepancies that have come out of this exercise so that I do not leave any items unresolved.

I am still working on creating back-adjusted files. I read the article on the website again as well the relevant section in the CSI manual. I created some contracts using their preferred method and understood it but they have a "de-trend" option that gave radically different results so I am working on understanding the differences using Excel. I did not find the CSI manual clear on the options but will re-read it again. I have quite a lot of confusion and frustration whilst doing this work.

 

Among the questions are; Why adjust when in the real world you have to deal with rolls? Should I re-scale my positions when a contract rolls? How do I track all this in Mechanica? Why put myself through this when its not necessary for indices and FX? I realize I am medicating the frustration by delaying the work so I decide the positive intention is probably to make sure that I understand the detail and I realize that I need to understand this work when using Mechanica. I wonder if this is part of some intention to professionalize my work that I have not previously acknowledged.

So, lots to do, I hope you all have a good holiday and thank you again for the support.

OK.

Friday, December 4, 2009

 

Reading Exercise
 

Dear Ed,


Can you read the following paragraph?


Only few minds can read this-
This is weird, but interesting!

fi yuo cna raed tihs, yuo hvae a sgtrane mnid too

Cna yuo raed tihs? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can.

i cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg... The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in waht oerdr the ltteres in a wrod are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rghit
pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it whotuit a pboerlm.


Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe.


Azanmig huh? yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt!

So hwo lcoo si tath!

Friday, December 4, 2009

 

It's Crackers to Slip a Rozzer the Dropsy in Snide

 

Hi Ed

I hope you and your family are well. Some period I could not to write you because of work. As we all members of trading tribe most of the time send you a lot of questions. Now I have one.

Dear Ed for improvement of some sector need an investments to that direction. But it is still not one capital management company in my country.
 

I would like to ask: Does bank deposited percents influence to the capital management business. For example in my country banks gives for deposit about 20 % for year. And for business you can get credit about 28% percent for year. How do you think Ed , such kind of percent could make not attractive capital management business generally?

Thanks in advance

You might consider taking your feelings about <learning English> to Tribe.

 

 

Alfred Can Get Away with Using Nighlish

 

 

 

...so can Alan...

 

 

 

...and so can Ben.

 

 

 

Clips: http://www.dtmagazine.com/

cmopg1924/mad30.jpg

http://lefteyeonthemedia.files.wordpress.com

/2008/10/greenspan-alan-03.jpg

 

 

Thursday, December 3, 2009

 

Disappointment, Rejection and Shutting Down


Dear Ed,

I submit a report to FAQ on my most recent hot seat.

I come to the tribe meeting ready and willing to work. I only sleep for a few hours the night before, which may help to quiet my conscious mind and work with Fred. Immediately after check-in, I tell the tribe leader that I want to work. I take the hot seat and start to describe what I want to work on. I tell my process manager (PM) that I have a date with a girl coming up soon but I am not satisfied with how the relationship is going.

My PM and receivers ask me how I feel about this and where my feelings are located. I feel the dissatisfaction in my chest and go with that feeling. As I work with that more, my face and cheeks begin to heat up. I continue to work through, experience, and enjoy various forms. The PM asks me how I feel about having a conversation with this girl about our relationship. I say that I think I am ready and prepared to do so but am not fully convinced. I do a role play with a receiver where I have this conversation with the girl. It feels awkward to me, but I think that it ultimately works. I feel that I can have this conversation with her on our next date.

We do a mini check-out at this point. After I check out, my PM asks me what my snapshot is. I start thinking about it but I have trouble feeling it and describing it. My receivers ask me some details and I describe some elements of it. My PM helps me work further with my snapshot, takes me into the situation I describe and asks how I feel. I say that I feel anxiety and it is in my chest. My receivers help me develop this form and I get really hot. I start shaking my head, rolling my neck, moving my fingers, and tapping my foot. Then I am upset and angry and start hitting the bean bag chair that I am sitting on. My receivers sense the intensity of this feeling and I crank it up until I am exhausted.

After I complete that form and rest for a few minutes, I report to my PM that I feel abandoned. My PM guides me to stay with the feeling and asks me if I have felt this before. I say that I have and the only time I can think of is 5 years ago when I broke up with a long term girlfriend. I provide some situational details: I break up with the girlfriend by not talking to her, she comes back to me and is upset that we are breaking up, once she is over our relationship, I try to get back with her and tell her that I miss her. We do a role play and it is successful in the sense that we replicate the feelings and result from that experience.

Then the PM asks me if I can remember a time prior to this when I also feel abandoned. The furthest I can go back with this feeling is to when I am roughly 12 years old and my mom does not pick me up from an after-school sports practice on time. I wait a very long time (about an hour or more) and well after all the other kids have been picked up. I feel that she does not care about me and I am not a priority for her. My throat feels dry and I have a headache. My tribe and I do a role play of the car ride home with my mom. In the car ride, I give my mom a short one word answer to any question she asks and I shut down and do not share my feelings. My PM gives me a rock and tells me that this is my Rock. With this Rock I respond to situations like this by shutting down and not sharing my feelings.

Despite that I feel comfortable with my old rock, I relinquish it because I do not think that it serves me well in relationships. My tribe helps me with suggestions for my new rock. We do another role play of the situation with my mom using the new rock; I am able to implement my resources and I am happy with the result.

We then do another role play of the situation with my ex-girlfriend. I am not happy with the result. After this version of the role play I am able to see the big drama that I entertain with her. I work with my tribe on coming up with some additional and more refined resources for my New Rock. My PM then guides me to do a role play of the conversation with the girl I am currently dating. The first resource in my new rock is to clarify the intention of the conversation. I tell my PM that I am not ready to do the role play because I am not clear on my intention.

 

I work with the tribe on clarifying my intention. I commit to do another role play of this situation three days from now, which is prior to my next date. I also make a commitment to my tribe that I will call my mom and share my feelings with her about the situation when I am 12 years old.

Thank you for sharing your process and for reporting on your experience with the Rocks Process.

 

 

 

Keeping Your Agreements With Your Kids

 

may help keep them free and clear of

Medicinal Rocks

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.neglected-delinquent.org/nd/

images/library/library_neglected.jpg

 

 

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

 

In the Strike Zone


Mr. Seykota,

As I continue to study trend trading and myself, I recall experiences as a baseball pitcher to help tie together learning lessons. I find myself painting mental pictures and movies to simplify the lesson. A-ha's often follow this practice.

Those who follow baseball, pitchers in particular, likely study the greats. These pitchers, in my opinion, have simple yet efficient mechanics which allow them to throw hard with minimal effort, stay healthy and win games. I compare these players to long-term trend-followers who have very simple systems, never tire and rake in money while flying under the drama radar.

I find it interesting that the rate of injuries in pitchers is increasing each year. I wonder if there is any correlation to the increasing rate of long-toss practice, flat-ground pitching at less than game intensity, lack of video-taping to measure the efficiency of mechanics and weight-lifting. All activities, I might add, that do not teach the pitcher throw at game intensity from a downward plane to a target 60-feet 6-inches away. Seeing this leads to me thinking about the wasted practice that does not help me work on myself and stick to my system.

Thinking in analogies between subjects I love help me to learn faster and practice more efficiently. I find task-related practice to be easy, but the process of believing it works to be the difficult part.

 

For the baseball-lovers who read FAQ, I am putting together an 'Essentials Cary Card' for pitchers that I will send in soon.

Talk to you guys soon.

Thank you for sharing your process and your insights.

 

 

In Baseball as in Trading

 

long-term winning strategies

are generally simple and consistent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://static.howstuffworks.com/

gif/how-to-draw-cartoons-97.jpg

 

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

 

Sugar and Air

Hi Ed

I do not feel that my health currently is up to attending the Breathwork weekend.

 

I have been getting better since remaining “gluten free” but I have more progress to make yet. I notice that my anxiety level has diminished considerably and the depression has lifted. I plan to visit the medical center in [City].

 

I have done some more research on bipolar and gluten sensitivity and have read several testimonials of patients who claim that eliminating gluten and casein allowed them to be medication free.

 

My plan is to also let them see all 7 children also and be tested. My oldest son, after I received the lab results, immediately eliminated gluten and is feeling better. He was having headaches every other day or so and has not had one since changing his diet.

 

I would attribute my finding this health problem to your comment about mediating. After I started meditating a little I saw some commonality in symptoms among myself and children (or it just became more obvious) and Google did the rest…

 

thank you for your help and support. I will resume sending weekly big wave updates when this issue clears up.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

 

New Delivery

Dear Tribe,

My family is blessed with the arrival of a healthy baby boy, born 11/27/2009 6lbs 10oz 19.5 in.

 

 

I feel great joy.

Thank you for sharing this essential event, for sharing your joy and for sharing the photo.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

 

Surrounding Yourself with Talent


Hello Mr. Ed

Greetings from [Country].

[I like] the golden words of Warren Buffett that I try to apply: It’s better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you’ll drift in that direction.

And Mr. Ed, in one of books I come across another great thought:

 

"First say to yourself what you would be; and then do what you have to do."---Epictetus.

 

Now this Epictetus quotation too increases my satisfaction by supporting my favorite song: "Every time you how it is..."

Aha!

Thanks Mr. Ed for everything.

Ok.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

 

I Ching

Hi Ed,

Is it possible to join the Trading Tribe even though I use the I Ching to pick stocks?

I have studied the I Ching for 41 years and for some reason which I do not know, all the stocks that go to Heaven have a better chance to outperform those that do not in the following years.

What it is about a random event such as throwing 3 coins 6 times that can point to an outstanding stock is a mystery but it works.

Perhaps, as a true philosopher and mathematician, you could share your thoughts on using random events to predict the outcome of a random event.

I have written 2 books on investing with the I Ching based on my experiences while working for [Name] and [Name].

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

In investing you might like to become familiar with the differences between:

 

Intuition / Into-Wishing

 

and

 

I Ching to Trade / Itching to Trade

 

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

 

Easier to Report "Good" News


Dear Supporters,

Last week I had to travel and did not send the weekly report. An interesting point is that I was stopped out 4 times in a row with the choppy market.

Several feelings associated with that came up during the week. Fear, frustration, fear of not doing the right thing, anger a lot of anger and of course pain all over my body.

Anyway I have been trying to just "feel" the feeling, just like any other one. It is not that easy, but I am committed to follow my system.

Thank you all for your support,

Thank you for sharing your process and your insights.

 

I notice that the performance reports that funds issue seem to show up earlier following profitable months.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

 

Spreading the News


Why do I share what is going on with me?

I recently made a commitment to read and watch much less news on the computer. In the past, I do not watch that much, I trick myself into thinking it is 10-15 min, but I think it is closer to 30 min. I am surprised at how I feel without medicating myself with the news. I feel lost, yet more focused. I sit down at the computer and have to work, there is nothing else to do.

I have a phone conversation with my brother in law. I have a lot of questions about what he is up to. I end up taking more time talking about myself. In the past I see this as sharing/giving information on what is up with me. Now I can see that I am taking attention from them. My intention is to help them feel good. I think I might be trying to medicate them with my news. I try to nicely package my news, giving talking head analysis about a fictional past or a mediocre forecast about a fictitious future. I make sure to include some self serving advertisements about myself. This is medicine not help. The end result is that I take attention and help to others avoid experiencing the now. While this does serve a purpose, the way I currently use it is not aligned with my commitment to right livelihood in most cases.

Thank you for sharing your process and your insights.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

 

Starting to Excel


Hello Support Team,

I begin to make progress understanding how to use Excel as a tool for identifying correlations between stocks.

Ed suggests that I start my exploration with Excel, and continue with that until I get a good sense of how trading systems work.

I am helped with steps to achieve a correlation coefficient. I do this buy using historical price data from Yahoo and transferring it into Excel. I experiment with different ETF's (ie SPY vs GLD) and different time horizons.

I recognize that Excel is an excellent tool. I continue to work on my stock selection and exploring Excel. I wonder how many different markets I want to track for optimal diversification.

I thank you for supporting me and also am open to suggestions on how to utilize Excel optimally.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

 

Steps to Making Things Real


We don't always know beforehand how we bring something from the abstract into being. But there are steps and mental states that seem to work:


- Absolute commitment and rejection of any other alternatives.
- Writing down the goal(s).
- Writing down how we intend to achieve them - through which service to society?
- Exercising faith and becoming ready to receive.
- Meditation, mental imagery, incantations, affirmations.
- Surrounding self with a talent bank and a high energy support group.
- Being flexible and evaluating progress often and making adjustments.
- etc., etc....
 

Napoleon Hill talks about these things in detail in his book "Think and Grow Rich" and Ed provides insights and hints throughout his FAQ.

 

In the end, commitment opens doors that aren't perceived without it.

Ok.

 

I wonder what specific thing (s) you are currently bringing across from abstract to real.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

 

Creating a Universe

Hello support group,

Thanks to everyone for keeping me motivated and on track. A couple people have asked me questions about assembling a universe to invest in. Coincidently this fits perfectly with the second part of my commitment to transform my trading methods into a system.

To me an essential characteristic of a system is that you can back-test it. If you don't have enough capital to take all the signals, you can't do that. Therefore, creating an investable universe that is consistent with the amount of capital you can commit is important.

Diversification is a beneficial thing. In my opinion, it's also very elusive. More than many admit, often most things are very correlated. I think position sizing and stops, are a more realistic way to manage risk. However, finding non-correlated instruments is still worth the attempt..

I have created my universe in the attached spreadsheet. Most of my experience is with growth stocks, so I have created a table to help differentiate the choices within the stock market. I have read that roughly 70% of a stocks return is from the general market, so when positioning in several stocks, that has to be factored in. I try to focus on stocks that have large cyclical swings or rapid growth potential resulting from large opportunity sets.

With small amounts of capital available, maybe selecting one instrument for each item in Col. C makes sense. With more, Col. D, E, F, and G make sense. With larger amounts of capital, screening for trading liquidity is important. to minimize skids on fills.

Further down the spreadsheet, I've included a list of ETF's that were circulated.

Belatedly, I've realized that some support group emails have been going into my spam folder, and I think I may have missed some. So if you sent one in response to my 11/16 email, and have not received a correspondence from me, would you please resend it? Thanks

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider various approaches to portfolio selection.

 

 

 

A Hawk

 

focuses on a specific target and

goes after it.

 

 

 

A Whale Shark

 

takes everything in its path and

discards most of it.

 

 

 

A Buzzard

 

specializes in secondary markets.

 

 

 

 

Clips: http://www.usefilm.com/images/4/9/7/

1/4971/1272595-medium.jpg

http://www.biology-blog.com/images/blogs

/12-2007/whale-shark-1881.jpghttp://www.greyforums.net/components

/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/Buzz3.jpg

 

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

 

Twins!

This last week is great spending time with friends of family.

 

Last Friday we found out my wife is pregnant with TWINS. Wow. Twins. I feel pressure to financially support a larger family: more daycare, different car, more of everything. I feel concern that attention will be taken away from my son who is doing so well and I want to be there for him. There is also worry, wanting my wife and new babies to be healthy.

Touching on my goals:

1. I purchase trading software.
2. I read two books on technical trading. I get comfortable with terminology and theories.
3. I utilize software. I create a trading system that I successfully back test.
4. I work two hours everyday on creating this system.
5. I open my futures trading account.

I have accomplished everything on the list some form.

1) I purchase trading software Tradestation. In the end, I think I will end up with Trading Blox. Tradestation is free for two months if you open an account with them, which I do. The next book I am reading by Kaufman has code that works with Tradestation, so this is an opportunity for me to get use to programming while I am reading at no cost. It is my understanding that the code is basic, similar to Trading Blox. So, it is a win-win-win.

2) I finished Technical Anylysis of Stock Trends and T. Boone Pickens most recent autobiography. So, while I did read two books only one is on technical trading. Although Pickens definitely rides winners.

3) I do create a trading system and successful back test it. This is done in excel. Man, I have a ways to go on this.

4) I consistently worked more than planned.

5) I open a futures trading account with Tradestation. It will not be funded until later this week.

I am pumped that I like the process as much as accomplishing the goals. I am excited by the challenges.

At this time, I am not approved to go to Breathwork this weekend. My first application conveyed that I am not far enough along in right livelihood (serving others) and that my goal is existential study. As I rewrite this statement is still feel sadness and great disappointment with myself and my commitment to right livelihood. It is a commitment I break with myself. More sadness. After spending sometime experience the feeling, I get to work. I rewrite my application from about 10PM to 4AM. It is the same type of energy I experience at the workshop. I do not go to bed until 5:30AM and strangely I wake up at 8AM and cannot fall back asleep. I do feel that my next application is a better representation of my intentions. I do not know if the new application will be considered.

 

I am thankful for the challenge and feel I benefited from clarifying my objectives and commitment. I am thankful that Ed is giving his time to Breathwork and respect his decision. My intention and commitment with Breathwork is to serve others at the event (this includes staying home if needed) and my goals at Breathwork directly relate to increasing my ability to serve others.

Congratulations on expanding your Essential Tribe.

Back to the future