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Ed Seykota's FAQ

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June 1 - 10, 2009

 

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Note: The appearance of a chart on FAQ does not imply any kind of indication or recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out of any positions.

 

 

Contributors Say

(Previous from Ed in Red)

Ed Says

Wednesday, June 10, 2009
 

Implementation


Namaste Ed,

I was desperately waiting for a tribe in my town.
Got up unusually early today and checked for FAQ update. And found this good news in June 1-10 FAQ.

But sir the tribe directory is not updated with [City] contact details. If possible please provide me email id and contact name of [City] Tribe.

I'm excited having waited more than 2 yrs to get associated with you or anyone associated with you. I have been reading FAQ for more than 2 yrs again and again.

I take this opportunity to thank you Ed for the wisdom you provide us.

It may sound funny or silly to you sir, but I am so much influenced by you that even my desktop background has your picture.

All my family members know you because I keep quoting you. I had been trading successfully for 5 years until January 2008. I was successful in every venture and aspect until 36 yrs of my age which I reached in 2008.

Then I flopped everywhere - trading, health, personal life, etc.

My problem is IMPLEMENTATION. I feel I know and understand well, but I don't implement things that I learn.

I'm trying hard to overcome this.

Thank you for the catch concerning my implementation of the index.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009
 

Sending and Receiving with Children

 

My 6 year old son is usually pretty capable at expressing his feelings (e.g., "I feel [sad, happy, excited,...]) but today we had this exchange:

him: wahhhhhhh, crying, etc.

me: tell me how you are feeling?

him: I want [my brother] dead!

me: that's not a feeling, tell me how you are feeling?

him: I want the house destroyed!

me: that's not a feeling, but tell me more

him: wahhhhhhh, crying, etc.

me: it sounds like you are very angry

him: [yes]

+++

So sometimes he needs help with this, just like we do as adults. I notice that I am anxious to correct (challenge?) him with the notion "that's not a feeling, tell me how you are feeling" as [Name] does with me (thank you). I feel guilt and remorse at challenging him when he is upset. I decide that in future crises, I can try to help him connect with his feeling by using my "superior" powers of deduction. In more relaxed encounters, I can practice the idea of sending and receiving. My curiosity now becomes how children mature in this process into adolescence and then adulthood. Conversely, how is it that some adults "don't get it" and can't easily connect with their own feeling?

You might consider this variation:

 

him: wahhhhhhh, crying, etc.

me: tell me how you are feeling?

him: I want [my brother] dead!

me: thank you for telling me. I'd like to tell me some more.

 

him:  ...  I'm angry about  ...

 

 

 

 

In Raising Children, as in Life

 

balancing intimacy with control

 

can be a balancing act.
 

 

 

Clip: http://www.continentaldrift.net/wordpress/

wp-content/uploads/2006/03/balancing.jpg

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

 

Driving as a Metaphor for Debt Accumulation
 

Ed,

Be sure to Buckle Up!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5yxFtTwDcc

Thank you for the clip.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

 

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

Black Tie Ukulele Concert

 

Ed,

 

You might like this.

 

TheGoodthebadtheugly.wmv (Movie)

Enjoy!

Thank you for the clip.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

 

Wants to Apprentice - Skill Set

 

Dear Ed,

"I wonder what kind of skills you have and what kind of productive work you intend to perform."

I am excellent with Bloomberg and Excel; using these two tools currently for all trading / allocating / balancing / hedging / research related functions on the desk in my current position. I understand Fx from an institutional perspective being that I trade tons of currency swaps daily, but have a general understanding of all securities having worked on an analytics desk prior.

 

I graduated with a high GPA in economics and have a great appreciation for the fundamentals that move our global markets. I am able to reach my own conclusions and convey them properly. (I'd say this is my strongest suit, and I would be happy to share my thoughts on the recent movement in Fx).

 

I can write well also, I wrote my firm's market summary for a short time. I am also well versed in technical's but don't rely on them too much.

 

This is short list as I don't want to drag this too long. Please let me know if you would like more information or details or have any questions. I look forward to your response!

Thank you for your note.

 

I am currently developing some applications in Java (Applets) and in iThink / Stella.

 

I have someone coming on board in about a week for about three months.

 

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

 

Rolling Convention for 210 Day High / Low Donchian System and Execution Rules

Hello Ed,


I read your interview with Jack Schwager in "Market Wizards" with great interest. I have been on your website, saw the 210 day Donchian system and results in the "Chart Server" link. I see that you have back-adjusted the contracts by difference as you have negative copper prices. I am trying to replicate your results, but could do with a few more details regarding the raw data you use as I am having trouble finding the values that you execute your trades at in the trade log, and of course if I can't get the correct raw data then I can't replicate the results exactly

1. What rules are you using to roll contracts. (By difference? and how many days before expiry?)


2. How are you getting your entry/exit prices as for example in trade 34 you have an entry price for the S&Ps of 826.275 but the S&P only trades in 0.1 ticks?

Thank you

You might check the site for a link to download the data I am using.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

 

EcoNowMics

 

Hi Ed,

Thanks for reporting. I read your dynamic system "ECO-NOW-MICS" and really enjoy the process. I notice that I really like some of your clear, simple writing.

I notice much [of the] system stuff [I find on the web] is about quantity, not really quality.  I do not notice that feeling with your work. -- nice job.

I feel that some of the graphics / images from your first iteration on the milk / pour are a good visual presentation. (e.g. kid pouring milk or orange juice.) I do not notice them now, but like them. They seem to present the feeling that "dynamic systems are all around us".

I think a presentation structure that moves from simple to complex (especially if the system is commonly around us) is very cool. I feel excitement to look at more dynamic system stuff.

I am very into working on my trading system right now (dynamic portfolio management), but I keep feeling my interests move towards dynamic system modeling.

Keep up the good work. I really like the quality. It is inspiring.

Thank you for your support and suggestions.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

 

Noise

 

Hi Ed,

From your observation of markets, is trading with longer time horizon less susceptible to "noise" (price movements influenced by calamities, market manipulators, government policies, etc) than on shorter time horizons?

Noise is the part of the signal that you don't like.

 

Say you have a recording of a banjo player plucking a string and bending it. Say you have some clicks and pops on the recording.  Now since you know quite a lot about how the bend normally sounds, you have a lot of resources to locate and remove the noise.

 

Say you have a market and you do not know where it is going.  You come up with a notion that it is in a long-term up-trend. Then you can identify noise as any downward price action.

 

In this way, noise depends upon your judgment about what the market "should" do.

 

In Trend Trading, we do not pretend to know the direction of the market - so we do not have a way to notice or deal with noise.

 

As you move from control-centric relating toward intimacy-centric relating, some of the noise might clear up for you.

 

 

Noise

 

is in the ear of the listener.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.peteykins.com/June05/

images/Ear.jpg

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

 

Listening to my Head

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I can report to you a strong improvement in my well-being, thanks to your suggestion of turning up the level of noise in my head, and actively listening in, instead of suppressing it.

I notice a strong increase in my concentration.

Thank you!

I also notice renewed attention for dieting on FAQ.

I myself was quite overweight 5 years ago. I used a simple yet effective system for losing weight, which I would like to share. No hocus pocus, no expensive weight-loss plans, no extreme pain or suffering; just playing a simple numbers-game. I like numbers and I guess there are more people reading FAQ who have both a weight-issue and affinity with numbers.

I weighed 230 pounds when I started. It went down to 200 in 3 months with little suffering and I never looked back. Currently my weight is 190 pounds, the same weight as when I was 20 years old, which is over 2 decades ago.

So this is what I did. I started off with a week of measurements. No dieting, just measuring both calorie intake and calorie burn:

1) I keep track of all food (type and quantity) I eat during the week, and how many calories each type of food contains per oz.

2) I keep track of all activities (type and quantity) I do during the week, and how many calories they burn per period of 10 minutes. Activities also include sleeping, thinking, watching TV, etc. They all burn certain amounts of calories.

For calorie contents per food, I use a small precision scale, so as to measure precisely my intake. The scale is actually quite important, in order not to fool myself or to doubt myself in hindsight.

For calorie burn, I can find the approximate calorie burn per time unit and per pound of body mass on the internet. The good news: the heavier you are, the more you burn for the same activity. If tracking your calorie burn sounds tedious, you might consider buying a device that does this for you, even in your sleep.

3) After a week I notice how some hardly satisfying types of food add a lot to my weekly calorie intake, and how several quite pleasant types add little calories.

4) I notice how little effect workouts have on my calorie burn, relative to how unpleasant they usually are.

So now I start my actual diet. I swap regular coke for diet coke (-140 kcal). I trade a chocolate bar for an ounce of chips (-100). I swap milk at breakfast for tea (-70). I swap one snack for another one (-50). I swap a bowl of yoghurt for a banana (-80), and so on. The swaps I make are hardly sacrifices to me. I also notice how little calorie burn an hour in the gym gives me (-300-500). I rather eat less, or different, than suffer in the gym.

So after a while I really get the hang of it and I manage to push my calorie-intake to a very low level. On good days, I get it down to 1300 with little effort. (When I started I consumed 2500-3000 calories a day.) I notice that I drop approximately one pound for every 1600 kcal of calorie deficit.

I also notice some other ways of limiting intake, for example splitting portions in two and eating them separately. But this is highly personal stuff. The principle is that if you measure it, you will probably notice all sorts of personal shortcuts to achieve a low intake with little effort.

Today, 5 years later, I work out regularly and I enjoy it too. I found the sports (outdoors) that I like, and I avoid gyms. Sports are a lot more pleasant when you have no excess weight to carry around with you.

Thank you for sharing your process and for your support of mine.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

 

Reminiscence of a Gardener

Mr. Seykota,

It is a beautiful garden. I probably could build it sooner if I didn’t divert so much attention to garden tips and staring at the weed all the time. A garden would reveal its beauty when all the non-essentials are removed.

A gardener needs to understand his plot of land, to combine its unique landscape with the current weather condition and wind direction. He can then determine the appropriate types (may be like Olive and Banksias this spring) and the sizes to plant.

After sowing the seeds, there is really not a lot to do except monitoring any potential thunderstorm and following the exit plan when it eventually comes.

A gardener probably spends a lot of his time sitting tight, listening to whipsaw music, and smelling the flowers.

Thank you for your sharing your metaphor.

 

 

In Gardening as in Trading

 

proper setup and plenty of patience

 

are essential.

 

 

 

Clip: http://blog.makezine.com/4

31px-Victorygarden.jpg

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

 

Dreaming Experience
 

Dear Ed,

Thank you for your continuing support and teachings. I just want to report the dream and experience I had last night. In the dream I am in my parents' house where I have been living for my first 25 years. I can clearly see there is my dad as he is now and my dad as I imagine him to be in 15 years time.


At some point I go near my "old" dad and he is saying to me that he is not feeling very good. Immediately I think that he is going to die, so I go and tell my younger dad that I am sorry for all the times when I have not acted in the best possible way with my oldest dad. My younger dad says to me that it is "OK" and that there is no problem at all in the way I have acted with him, I have nothing to feel sorry about.


In my dream I start crying and almost immediately I wake up. I remember what I was dreaming and I keep on crying deeply in my bed for at least 20 minutes in the middle of the night. After that I fall asleep again.


The next morning I feel a little strange, but I also feel very relaxed, almost at the zero point. I realize I am happy to have my father still alive and that I can still speak with him and share with him my ideas and experiences.


He is a good support for me and I have needed it often. Also, I feel a strong desire to hug him (something we do not do very often and not very strongly) and I am looking forward to meeting with him next week so I can give him a proper hug.


I also feel the desire to thank him for all the support he has given me during the years; Actually, I realized I never said thank you to him.
 

I also want to take this experience to my next hot seat.


All the best Ed and thank you again.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

 

As you Move Away

 

from control-centric relating

 

and toward intimacy-centric relating

 

your dreams may serve to support the transition.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://yaadein.files.wordpress.com/

2007/09/father_son.jpg

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

 

Sofia Tribe


Dear Mr. Seykota,

Our interest in your personality arises after reading your interview in the Market Wizards book. The impression you left on most of the accomplished traders who shared the same career with you transcends in all the interviews.

Reading your interview pushed [Name] and me into research on trend systems and risk management and opened a new dimension beyond the simple guessing the market.
We would like to use the opportunity we found on your site and establish our little Trading Tribe.

We believe that sharing our experience with the community will help us in the process of our evolution in trading as well as the psychological management or emotional ups and downs.

Welcome

Sofia

Bulgaria

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

 

Emotional Reaction to Financial News

Ed,

This man in the video acts like a DIM TTP session. I wonder how difficult it is to put it in a
group session.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWu-efNN8PM&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fzerohedge%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded

Smashing !

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

 

Wants the Client to do the Work


Ed,

Please email me an example of what you define as the "standard form" including MAR (showing calculations) so I can prepare this document for you.


There have been many withdrawals from my accounts for living costs and property purchases, and I have achieved a 19,632% return in 9 years.

My stock trading model is tuned to fit my personality, in the sense that I don't like being in drawdowns bigger than 10% and trade in the best way I can to avoid them, its effective at producing returns of between 25% - 500% without incurring drawdowns much more than 15%. I have screen shots of my equity curve I can show you from various periods.

My early trading years showed a higher rate of return (up to 1200%) because the main instrument I was trading (not a stock) was so good for my system.


It has since been withdrawn because the writers of it could not hedge my trades effectively and lost money, even Goldman Sachs withdrew it, as my model was producing an average 2.3% a week and my broker was following my trades in huge size.

So in this report, its best I remove the trades from this other product as its not going to be included in any trading I do for you.

Please also specify how many years of trading history you require in this report.

When you have seen enough of my trades in the now, you can inform me so I can stop sending them, please advise.

You might consider contacting the FSA in the UK and/or the NFA in the US for a template upon which to base your presentation.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

 

Principles of TTP


Hello again Ed!

I now understand what the TTP is all about, and I am very grateful that you are willing to share all these valuable information, and answer our emails.

I'm crafting my personal vision and mission statements, and discovering what my values are. Since I look up to you as a mentor and a man of wisdom, I would like to know what your personal vision, mission statements and values are.

Some of the principles of TTP are:

 

Sending and Receiving.

Moment of Now.

K-nots and Rocks.

Private Property.

Intimacy-centric relating.

Support Teams.

Fred and Under-Fred.

Snapshots.

Process Orientation.

 

TTP does not emphasize visions, mission statements and lists of values.

 

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Wants a Mentor

Hi.

 

I'd like to seek your honest and sincere advice on the following.

I am a mid 20's working professional, 3+ years of experience at two large buy-side shops on the global desk doing fx. Have followed fx closely for 5+ yrs and have known from the start that I want to be in a position of trading my own book. Have traded with mixed results, large gains on big trends (2005 and 2008 $ rally, 2006-08 Eur rally, etc) with excellent entry points, but basically breaking even from poor trades in between. I'm patient but growing a little tiresome with the nature of buy-side fx (mostly rebalancing, hedging flows, tons of swaps etc) and my schedule (12-15hr) days since graduating college leaves almost no time for personal trading and study.

I feel I have 3 options: Stick it out or go back to school for an MS or MBA to try to land an S & T or hedge fund position (which may not be all that different) or find a mentor to work under and with, to take a risk and see if I can make this thing real for myself now.

Any words of advice? (hang in there? go back to school? etc)

If you believe it is wise to seek a mentor, anyone you know that would be interested in becoming that mentor I seek? I feel that I am ready to take the risk on that route.

Apologies for the drawn out e-mail, and the utmost appreciation for your response.

See below.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Nice Photos

 

Ed,

 

You might like these photographs.


belles photos-Er.pps (Photos)

Thank you for the photos.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Shy


Dear Ed,

Thank you for reading and responding to my update. I am not clear on the comment you make on the May 18 FAQ, "One way out of shyness is to be willing to be shy". I have been shy my entire life and I believe that I am willing to be shy. I wonder if my behavior does not exhibit willingness.

One test for willingness to feel shy, is to notice if you enjoy feeling shy.

 

 

One Positive Intention of Shyness

 

is Risk Control.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.the-parenting-magazine.com

/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/shy_boy.jpg

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

EcoNowMics


Chief,

Thank you for sharing your time and knowledge.

 

Whenever I browse the TT site, I learn something new. I now browse at least once a day. Thank you for this gift. The EcoNowMics project is such an eye opening exposition of system dynamics.


In the section on Cause and Effect model, there is a typo in the paragraph "For example, say he wants to spend some government money ....... this constituents .....", I think you mean "his constituents" instead of "this constituents".

Thank you for the catch.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

EcoNowMics

Hi Ed,


I feel an immediate surge of energy when I read your new work on Eco-Now-Mics ... it is unmistakably Ed!


I feel your heart in this. I connect with it.
It has humor. It is interesting. It is also very brainy.


Do you seek to reach politicians? May have to dumb it down (little joke). Economists, scientists, traders? People who are highly educated, professors, researchers?


I think it is tricky to translate human behavior into economics and mathematical graphs. I think I generally grasp where you are going with it and at the same time it is a complex bridge.


You write simply and explain well; you are a good teacher. I notice your mind creates connections and sees information in ways I do not, and in ways beyond what I see in others.

 

So, in terms of your audience, what is simple or obvious or exciting to you may be and probably is beyond the scope of "just folks" tuning into Oprah or choosing a book to read on the plane.

Thank you for your support.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Thoughts on the Milk Model

Dear Ed,

Thanks for posting a really clear and simple Cause and Effect Model description. It is amazing the quantity and quality of work you are putting on.


I am writing below some thoughts and some contributions.


In my experience I see the above model unfolding the large majority of times, during different economic cycles and within different Countries.

Sometimes is slightly different as there is no blaming but claiming merit. E.g. Politicians claim merits based on the effect due to a “cause”.


The effect: in a certain period economic data are good. Politicians argue it is “clearly” merit of them – the current good “managers” (the cause and the assignment of causality). At the same time the opposition is claiming the good status of the economy as results of their management decisions at the time they have been in-charge.


Anyway, as for the blame, politicians find a way to expand their political power.

Quite often the Adjustment (the Fix), is supposed to be “temporary” (e.g. new taxes or cash injection in a distressed Company). However most of the times it turns out that Fix is either permanent or cyclical. Some examples are:


-Growing number of taxes
-Growing Public sector share in the market (e.g. via a temporary nationalization)
-Recurring State-aid to Companies (e.g. to Big to Fail)
-Recurring State-aid to Persons
 

Sometimes the Fix is a short-term solution which allows the politicians to implant the seed for future larger Fixes (and more power to them in order to deal with the problem). Usually a reinforcing feedback loop take place, current examples are:
 

o the US debt and the $ printing
o Continuous State-aid to Companies
 

-----


I write the below section based on the above observations:
 

Parts of the cause-and-effect model are: (note, on the original text you say “we have”)
 

1. The Cause(s): one or more events from the non-existing past.

2. The Effect(s): one or more recent events.

3. The Assignment of Causality: the cause is the reason for the effect.

4. The Adjustment (Ad-just-a-mend): something to change the cause.
 

By now it is clear (original text, we can see) that none of this makes any sense. As something evolves, it does so by interacting with itself in the moment of now. It also generates

a historical trace of infinitely many events. Trying to link events from different time zones to explain how something works is futile.


-----

I add a second part on the funny-bunny story below to show how a Fix can typically become recurring and reinforcing.

    1) For example, say he wants to spend some government money on making a car that runs on rabbit droppings. He sees that many people who are living in homes they cannot afford are losing them to the banks and that many banks are going broke and that some bankers are making a lot of money. He knows he can sell this event as something this constituents might not like. So he sets it up as the effect. Next, he comes up with a cause; the economy is in a downturn. He then presents a convenient fix; we need to stimulate the economy - and what better way than to provide incentives to motivate people to make some eco-friendly vehicles. Soon, his friend at Kaninchen Motors (who is an active political supporter) has a fifty million dollar contract to produce little round brown cars that look and roll like rabbit droppings. No matter that no one wants to sit in one, the cause-and-effect model is successful in working its magic.

    2) Few Years after the “stimulus” package, Kaninchen Motors is in financial distress as it has sold less then expected cars. However, Kan Motors is a national champion, to big to fail, and is a key player in a strategic sector. Since the Government cannot a-Ford to let it fail, he moves on with a cheap Loan, issued cheaply by some friendly Banks, guaranteed by the State itself.


Further Years after the Government decides to nationalize the Company as the management greed and lack of skill are to blame and replace private managers with qualified, more skilled politicians. All convenient fixes.

Thanks a lot for all the Ed-ucational material

OK.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Mechanical Returns

see previous

 

Ed,

 

I get 2+ Sharpe ratio (with risk free = 0) and Bliss of 1.5 consistently.

But yes the sampling is then done intra day - not EOD.

I'm up 60% for the year. All thanks to Ed and his teachings.

OK.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Album

 

Ed,


I dig your LP. The songs are a lot of fun, and the fidelity is amazing!!! I couldn't believe my ears. Bernie Grundman is truly one of the top mastering engineers of all time. Thank you, a real treat to hear on virgin vinyl.

When my next record goes multi-platinum and Rolling Stone asks me what I listen to, I'll just have to tell them!

Thank you for your support.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

More Bernoulli

Hi Ed,

I like your theory and I like the new website layout.

Although I am not a scientist, I think your experiments are very convincing.

I did the experiment in the swimming pool last year and it works. My hand gets sucked into the spout, but only when I put it at a particular distance.

It also makes sense intuitively when thinking about airplane lift.

I suppose your intent with the website might be that science acknowledges your theory, scraps Bernoulli from textbooks as an explanation for lift and uses radial momentum instead.

You might want to talk to a person with knowledge of PR on how to market the idea properly.

Personally, I think the power of the theory is that it is controversial and that it goes against the grain. It reminds me of the guy who lifts Stonehenge-size blocks without modern machinery.

Controversy happens to be an ingredient the mass-media love.

Have you thought about contacting science publications, or National Geographic channel? Maybe a show like Myth Busters would be interested in putting radial momentum to the test, with a plane that has wings with equal length of top and bottom. These guys would share in the glory if they disprove mainstream science, so they might be very willing to get into this.

Thank you for your support.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Bernoulli Follow-Up

Ed,

 

Thanks for this. It seems to me that this issue can be subjected to a simple experiment. The claim is that air velocity over a wing creates a low pressure that results in lift. This should be possible to test with a model. One simply creates a wing with linear groves in it. This is then placed under a mould that matches its shape. Air is forced through the groves and one looks to see if there is a lift effect. Easy since the wing should stick. Have you done this?

In my view the main problem with science is that they don't really do experimental tests that really test the theory, what they do is experiments that prove the theory is right. These are not really tests at all. When a experiment disconfirms, they argue it doesn't really apply to the theory at all so it is invalid.

 

This sort of thing is very common now days.

Parallel flow does not support Radial Momentum.  See Levitator.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Wants to Intern

Dear Mr. Seykota,

By any chance are you still trading? Do you hire interns? I would really like to learn from a Great like yourself?

See below.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Chasing Her Sister's Tail

Dear Tribe;
 

Report for the week of June 8th.
 

This week my account value changed by .02% - Just barely in the positive. On the other hand- I only had a couple of my stop-loss positions trigger. I'm using either a 1 ATR, and for a couple of other stocks a 2 ATR settings. My goal is to capture as much of the upside as I can - and none of the downside.

Gym 6 days
FAQ 5 days
Yoga 4 days
German 4 days
Called Family members 5 days
 

I lost my temper with my sister, and allowed her to pull me back into family tail-chasing. My big "AHA" about my family seems to have set some kind of Under-Fred upheaval. I'm going to let it settle, and then respond with another push in (what I hope ) will be a healthy direction.

You might consider back-testing your system to find the optimal values for your parameters.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <your sister> to Tribe.

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://gregcookland.com/journal/

uploaded_images/picMcKieJudyChaseTable

Blog-720587.jpg

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Bicycle Ride - 220 miles in 11 Hours
 

Dear Support Team,

Thank you for your ongoing support in my big wave journey. Attached is my updated big wave summary sheet. Below I show my progress.

Developments:


- Complete CFA level 2 exam last Saturday (I feel ok about the exam, I find the first half better than the 2nd half - find out in August on result)
 

- Now have some trading software and learning how to use it - Working with my mentor for summer assisting in managing some of his accounts and doing equity research

Issue:
 

- While I am meeting my schedule, I feel I would be better to have a time log to monitor progress better
- This is to be included in my next report

I continue to feel I am making steps forward in the right direction. I am meeting my schedule and measuring my progress.

Living in the now:
Two weekends ago, I decide to attempt a goal set 6 years ago, but continuously delayed. I realize, I must not put off to the future what can be done in the now and accept the challenge. I wake up at 5:30 am I ride my bike from my parents home to the family cottage. 350 km (220 miles) route in 10 hrs and 57 min. (I have included a post ride picture for any cycling enthusiasts) While the ride is 2x further than any one day ride I have ever done, I feel a new wave of energy as I turn each corner and enjoy the magnificent day. I feel very happy to finish the ride and look forward to the next challenge.

I am extremely grateful to have such a fantastic support team - I have great conversations with team members and I am thankful to have each of you as a part of my life.

 

Thank you for sharing your process.

Monday, June 8, 2009 

 

Wants Intimacy - Rocks Process Report

 

Hi Ed,

I observe another rocks process at our tribe meeting. A tribe member wants intimacy with the opposite sex and the cycle seems to be he interacts with a woman, they get closer and then a switch inside of him seems to switch on that disrupts the process. It is if there is a nice trend going then there is a sudden shift in the trend towards intimacy based on his own actions that are apparently running in his subconscious mind.

 

We begin the rocks process and he recalls that his mother is very volatile when he is in his early teens. She is jealous, angry, overprotective and emotionally abusive. In the process he recalls he is going to 'go out’ and had purchased some “mousse” for his hair and was in the process of “becoming gorgeous” when his mother enters and begins angrily berating him over his use of mousse and his desire to seek relationships with young women.

 

In the role play he has trouble sharing his feelings with his mother, but continues to work through the process. He begins to get in touch with the deep pain and humiliation that has occurred. I hear the sadness in his voice. There is a noticeable change in his voice inflections as he connects with his feelings about this event. In the end he describes his feelings to his mother as disappointed and very sad. I am in tears as I watch this play out.

 

I notice this same pattern in my life. Affecting not only my intimacy with women but in all areas. The process of staying connected. After dinner I bring this issue up to tribe. I feel anxiety and fear when I get closer to consummating a long term relationship. I usually find a way to disconnect.

 

Ed asks me questions about my current relationship. I say I would like to get married. "What is stopping you?" It comes out - my mother.

 

Ed asks detailed questions about my relationship with my mother. She is very controlling / manipulative and uses me as an emotional marriage partner as I grow up. I reveal that she is also very “religious” and judges me or criticizes me in an emotionally abusive fashion even to the current day. My response is to shut down emotionally and disconnect.

 

A role play is performed where other tribe members play my mother and “let me have it”. All the judgments and criticism they can muster. I am to receive my mother’s feelings fully even in the face of all abuse and judgments. There is lots of laughter from the many judgments that are cast and I can see that my tribe members really enjoy playing my mother.

 

I respond always with “staying awake” and thanking her for sharing her feelings and inquiring for more feelings that she has. This process feels so much different than the response of disconnecting and feeling angry and dejected. I disconnect from the content of the judgments and angry assault and simply keep the channel of feelings flowing, allowing her to express all of her feelings.

 

The process is completely opposite of what goes on inside me normally - staying connected, staying with the trend until the end. I come home from tribe and go to a family celebration for my mother’s birthday. I “stay awake” and receive my mother’s feelings.

 

I notice I have a different response in my trading - staying and listening. I had frequently been in very good trades and exited too early or simply not taken the trade. I am very appreciative of the support that my tribe has given me. I also appreciate my other tribe members going all out in the work and allowing me to benefit from either being involved directly as a role player or watching and experiencing the process.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Monday, June 8, 2009

 

Log 22
 

Hi Ed,
 

Thanks for all the positive support. I log 22 hours this week, I see major improvements.

OK.

Monday, June 8, 2009
 

Learning about TT

 

Dear Mr. Ed Seykota,

I'm from [Country]. I know the TT while browsing a website. I've just got involved in trading for almost a year and I understand many things I have to learn especially the psychological and the risk management. Often I am stunned by the floating loss and got nervous about what to do.


How I may join this group? And can I get The Trading Tribe book?

You might consider looking around on this site.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

 

Hyderabad, India Tribe

 

Ed,

 

Here is our Tribe Document.

Welcome

Hyderabad

India

 

Saturday, June 6, 2009

 

Hesitates to Tell His Wife
 

Hi Ed,

Upon reading your reply to my FAQ dated Tues. May 26, 2009 – Annoyance, Frustration & Anger, I think, “Wow, what a tough answer” and I then feel slight tingling in my chest, I can feel my heart beating as well as feelings of vagueness, of being unsure and of being lost. This lasts for a little while & is quite interesting to experience. (especially the ‘lost’ feelings). The feelings are not unpleasant , just a bit strange that’s all.

I then ponder the situation and realize that it’s no big deal to tell my wife that I want to work on my issues, I will simply tell her of my reasons for wanting to travel to I.V. and be done with it.

I have little doubt that she will give me her blessing. I don’t believe that she would see it as a problem.

However, just thinking about doing it I feel a great resistance.

Why should I have to tell her? This is my business, no one else's. She wouldn’t understand, She would judge me. Do I need the ‘headache’ associated with any (perceived) nagging that might be forthcoming? Do I need to hear “why ‘this’ & why ‘that’”? Do I need to hear, “what about me?”

O.K. resistance not withstanding I do share my feelings re: doing ‘work’ at I.V., as I say above it ends up not really that big a deal at all. My wife simply asks why can’t I work on my ‘stuff’ here instead of going there. I answer by saying that I prefer to work on my issues at the source of the TTP technology. She supports me by saying, “Do what you think is best for you”

It feels awkward & a bit clumsy for me to open up, but I do and I feel good about it.

Now I begin to think, “What if Ed had asked me to share my process not with my wife but with other non-trading tribe people” (i.e friends, acquaintances etc)?

Well, now this is now a totally different story. At this time I can say that there is no way I will do that. I find it difficult to even imagine doing this.

These are definitely my issues right here.

I have known for a long while that I find it difficult to express my feelings & thoughts to those that I believe would not understand and I know that I have ‘big-time’ acceptance issues (these go back to school days, where I found it difficult to fit in).

I don’t want people to think I’m an oddball, an idiot or some kind of freak.

I suspect that this is also a big motivation for trading the markets, yeah sure I want to make money, but I also would like others to think, “Wow, look at how successful he is, isn’t he good, isn’t he smart, isn’t he clever, blah, blah, blah...

With respect to your comment, “You might consider your reticence . . . . as evidence that you might not be ready for Tribe work at I.V.”

This is one of the reasons why I want to attend I.V. in the first place, to work on these issues of why I feel uncomfortable with opening up to people & telling them what I’m doing. I can say with 100% certainty that I will have no problems expressing myself in a group of like-minded individuals who know the process and are all working on their own issues, but as I mention above, I feel a great resistance with others that don’t know the story.

I honestly don’t believe I’m in this for the “healer-patient fix-em-up games”.

You had said in our phone conversation that this is very much like a catch-22 situation. I agree, since in order to open up to people and tell them what I’m doing & feeling I need to work on my acceptance & judgment by others issues, but in order to work on these issues I need to tell people what I’m doing & feeling - and ‘round and ‘round we go.

It’s also the reason that I found your reply to be a tough one for me to read and digest.

I will say again, that I'm willing to work and 'games' are the last thing on my mind.

I wonder if you are willing to include your wife on your journey.

 

 

 

TTP Can Assist You In Moving

 

from control-centric relating

 

to intimacy-centric relating.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.stationbay.com/images/P/

R_Hidding-From-Wife.jpg

Friday, June 5, 2009


New FAQ

 

Ed,

 

I notice new posts on FAQ. Thank you Batman & Ed for your commitment to publishing them.

You are welcome!

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

Philippines Tribe
 

Greetings Ed,

If I may, I'd like to lay the groundwork for a Trading Tribe here in the Philippines.

Welcome

Makati City

Philippines

 

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

Men with Guns

 

I feel anger over Ed producing a rifle during a Tribe Meeting. During the break last night I share it with him, concentrating on firearm safety concerns. I realize now that my anger has less to do with safety protocol and more with the Rocks Process protocol as I come to understand it.

 

I do not recall Hot Seat releasing me or other tribes members from our roles as assailers. I don't remember if the Hot Seat releases Ed from his role as crazy gunman.

After we complete the process, I feel confusion about boundaries between role play and real life. I want to regain this boundary.

 

-----

 

I have an opportunity to confront another man with a gun last night as I leave IV. An officer pulls me over. I am about to get my first ticket in 10 years. He tells me I am 8 miles over the speed limit and my registration expired on Tuesday. I decide to take responsibility for both; not to argue and not to beg. With a flashlight in my face, the officer probes me about where I am going, what I was doing in IV, and how can a meeting run so late. I feel crowded and angry. I feel that these endless questions are none of his business, but I am afraid to confront him with that. The Fifth Amendment flashes in my mind. I reject the thought. I am implementing the 5% solution: comply with the demands of the man with the gun.

The procedure lasts 20 minutes. The officer comes and goes. I feel anxious. I can't see him approach--his car's bright lights, all 100 of them, are right in my mirrors, in my eyes. I feel like I'm under interrogation in a spy movie. I can hear music radio coming from his car. I wonder if he is dragging his feet on purpose.

Finally the officer appears one last time and shoves a Palm Pilot in my face. It takes me a while to realize he wants me to sign something. I marvel in technological progress since since my last ticket. A second officer, who appeared meantime as backup, tells me I can sign now, or go to jail and sign there. I share a strong feeling with them--I say, "Now I'm scared." Then I feel fear that the officers may take that as mockery. I add, "I don't want to go to no jail." I wonder about my atypical use of the double negative.

As I drive away, I feel like shit. I feel like I've been stepped on. More specifically, I feel like a piece of shit that has been stepped on--the boot that stepped on me must feel disgust at having anything to do with me. For the next 5 hours and 235 miles my heart sinks to my knees every time I see a police car.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <authority> to Tribe.

 

 

 

People with Authority Issues

 

tend to entrain authority drama.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.ocinsight.com/

Articles/arrest.jpg

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

Intention
 

Ed says, "In the TTP model, intention is another name for the system structure while result is another name for the system behavior." (FAQ 5/8/09, Motivation + Intention+ Action = Result??)

If the intention of a pendulum system is to swing back-and-forth, it seems to me that the "intention" (in TTP context) of a trend-following trading system is to capture trends (if it exists). We come up with rules (e.g. placing buy stop orders above a N-day high or sell stop orders below a N-day low), and the "result" is that any time there is a major trend going on we are certain that we are participating in it. That's it. Whether it makes money is not part of the "intention".

My question is, can we build a system whose intention (again, TTP-sense) is to make money and be profitable?

While not necessarily mutually exclusive (on the contrary, there might be some correlation), it seems that a trend-following system has no specific intention about profitability. Its "purpose" is simply to ensure that we are riding a trend if it shows. It doesn't guarantee how often the trends may come, or how big the trend we are riding is, or whether or not it is going to be a profitable system in the long-run. Maybe as a by-product it is profitable, but that doesn't seem to be its intention. It may or may not.

If Intention = Result, I am wondering how I can go about designing a system whose intention is specifically to make money, and it shows in the result?

Or to make it more specific, how can I go about designing a system whose intention is say, keep its maximum drawdown less than 15% while growing at least 15% a year?

I can go through the TSP exercises, find the optimal parameters that fit the criteria and etc. But it seems that even so, I cannot conclude that if I commit to following that system in real life going forward, its result (or in TTP-sense, intention) is to continue growing at that pace. As they always say, "Past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future results."

I appreciate your thoughts on this, thanks.

In the TTP convention, swinging back and forth is the behavior of the pendulum; the intention manifests as the structure.

 

Making money is the behavior of a system; the intention manifests as the equations you use and the degree to which you follow it.

 

Purpose flows from your own view of how something fits with you.

 

 

 

The Purpose of a Porpoise

 

is whatever you make it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://pages.cms.k12.nc.us/pictures/

ScottHilborn/Porpoise.jpg

Friday June 5, 2009

 

Move to Another Form of Communication

 

Ed says, "I wonder you you define progress" (FAQ 5/14/09, Progress) I am guessing you mean 'I wonder HOW you define progress'

Well, the dictionary has the following which I pretty much agree with:

A movement toward a goal or to a further or higher stage. Advancement in general growth or development. Forward or onward movement,
the forward course of action, events, time, etc.

If you want it in my own words, then I'd define progress as closing the gap between our current state and the desired state that we target to move towards.

Ed says, "When You Stop Measuring Progress in terms of things and when you start measuring progress in terms of staying in the now, you are
making some progress." (FAQ 5/14/09, Progress)


Hmmm, that's interesting and I have to think about it. It sounds like all Big Wave measurements I've heard from Workshop participants are all related to measuring things (e.g. how many Roadmap chapters one completes? how many strangers one approaches and initiates a conversation)

Can you give some example of measuring progress in terms of staying in the now? Do you mean how often one gets lost in his work because he is so deep into it?

Progress is a measurement of the reduction in distance between you and your target.

 

If your target is to connect with a girl, you might measure progress by your proximity to her.

 

If your target is to stay in the now, you might measure progress by learning to stop measuring progress.

 

 

 

The More You Obsess about Progress

 

the more loopy you get.

 

 

Clip: http://www.glycemicindex.com/blog/

december2005/tapemeasure250.jpg

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

Milk Model and the Fed

 

Dear Ed,


Thank you for the milk model project. After some practice, I find that keeping the spigot open at the halfway point and turning it off in steps with some "thinking time" between the steps helps me in filling the tank. While this is not the fastest way to fill up the tank, it is one way to ensure that overflows do not occur. Starting with the spigot fully open results in jerkiness and after making allowance for reaction time, there is always a high chance of overflowing.
 

It is easy to see the analogy of this with what the central banks are doing (keeping the monetary spigots open at full blast for a long time). Looks like the overflow is inevitable. Some markets could have the rally of a lifetime.

OK.

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

IVTT Follow-Up


Dear Ed;


Thank for another great Tribe meeting. I am honored to be part of this life changing experience.


I enjoyed the presentation this morning.

OK.

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

Thanks
 

Dear Mister Seykota,

I wish not take any precious minute of your time.
 

Except if you allow me, to thank you for the content of your character revealed in Market Wizard's and Trend Following, and of course your Trading Tribe book that I bought and read with amazing delight a little more than a year ago.

Thank you for your support.

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

Socialism in the Classroom - Joke

 

Ed,

An economics professor once remarked he had never failed a single student, but had once failed an entire class.

That class had insisted that socialism worked; that no one would be rich, and no one would be poor, a great equalizer.

The professor then said, "OK, we will have an experiment in this class on socialism. All grades will be averaged, and everyone will receive the same grade. No one will receive an A, but, no one will fail, either.

After the first test, the grades were averaged, and everyone got a B...

The students who studied hard were upset, and the students who studied little were happy.

As the second test rolled around, the students who studied little had studied even less, and the ones who studied hard decided they wanted a free ride too, so they studied little.

The second test average was a D. No one was happy!

When the 3rd test rolled around, the average was an F.

The scores never increased as bickering, blame, and name-calling all resulted in hard feelings, and no one would study for the benefit of anyone else.

All failed, to their great surprise, and the professor told them that socialism would also ultimately fail because when the reward is great, the effort to succeed is great; when government takes all the reward away, no one will try, or even want to succeed.

The U.S. continues down the primrose path to socialism, no matter who is elected president. The state will have ever-increasing absolute authority over every aspect of your life.

It's really that simple, and can you believe people among us actually think this is good, that they want this to happen here in America?

Thank you for the yarn.

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

Waiting
 

Ed,

According to my feeling, one of the positive intention of the feeling of waiting is to keep me safe and / or to keep me out of trouble.

According to your experience, what is the positive intention of the feeling of waiting?

If you are standing in the middle of the road, during rush hour, I wonder how waiting can help keep you out of trouble.

 

 

Waiting Around

 

may be part of an attempt

 

to assign blame to someone else.

 

Clip: http://office.microsoft.com/en-

us/clipart/default.aspx

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

Fear of Judgment
 

Hi Ed,

This is an update for the last 2 weeks or so; I notice it is a bit wordy.

Baseball and Insights:
 

During the period my two son's sports take over my schedule, or rather I spend most of my time on this area. I am the coach of two teams and realize that I can become obsessed with a project. In this case the project is coaching baseball.

 

A couple of things I notice:

 

First, I like to focus on one thing. I notice at times I am working on baseball strategies instead of my big wave. This causes some feelings around not staying on task with the big wave, like disappointment. It also causes feeling of joy that I commit to helping kids learn a sport.

 

Second, this added work and schedule conflict creates stress for me. I notice when I feel stress I am not able to do as much work and the work I do is of a lesser quality. It is harder to multitask, and I am more apt to snap at people or family.

 

Third, I have an "AHA", which is that I hate to lose. I know this is an issue for me, but the baseball gives me a chance to experience it now (the team I coach gets beat big).

 

I think about what is the positive intention of “being stressed” and “I hate to lose.” Stressed for me in this case is about maintaining a comfortable level of things to do and not over scheduling. This allows me to do a good job on each thing and enjoy it. “I hate to lose”, I feel has to do with being prepared, doing my homework, dotting the I's and cross the T's. This is all about getting myself, (my project, or my team) in a position to perform to the best of my capabilities. Then I wonder where does that come from? The answer I get is that what I just wrote is true, but what “I hate to lose” is ultimately about is, I am fearful of what others will think of me.

 

Wow, this is the same concept that I felt fear around the Big Wave at the workshop.

Big wave progress and insights:
 

I spend time on my big wave, but less than my commitment, see baseball above. I create a list of big wave sections and tasks. This took a lot of just thinking about my big wave. I want to have it broke into parts or tasks so I can work on one and move to the other, like big wave subsets. I feel that it is a comprehensive group of big wave sections and tasks, but I may discover and add more. I work on the capacity my money management business will handle as the first task. This also has me focus on the markets I will trade. I find that although I trade for many years and study the futures market on several occasions, I have some confusion around the various contracts and the size that can be easily traded in and out. Further confusion arises on the amount of money movement per contract. I pick one market and work through some of this. Then I realize my position size algorithm could come into play when I consider the amount of dollars per contract is so different from contract to contract. Then I realize I am feeling some added stress and confusion from schedule conflicts and I feel confident I can solve this and relax some.

 

At this point I do not have the answer for the capacity of the business (or how much money will I manage) but I have a sense that it will be a range. To little and I cannot use my position size algorithm and I cannot be compensated for the effort. To big and I cannot trade the markets that I am planning to develop the systems for, position sizing / diversification suffers and I will have to scale in and out over many days. If anyone is interested in my list let me know and I will send it.

Thank You for supporting me, I feel that I make progress through your support.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

I wonder where you get the idea that what others think of you is any of your business.

 

You might consider taking you feelings about <judgment> to Tribe.

Friday, June 5, 2009

 

Trader's Window and TSP

 

Hi Ed,

I own a copy of The Trading Tribe book and I review it periodically as I find it insightful and applicable to areas of my life (trading and otherwise) that I work on. I understand that you have a new book called the Trader's Window but I do not see any purchase information. If it's available I would be happy to buy a copy and if it it is in a 'beta' stage I am willing to read it and provide feedback - assuming of course you are interested in receiving feedback.

Also, I am curious as to what has happened with the Trading System Project? There has not been an update in a quite some time and I think many Trading Tribe followers find the demonstration a healthy review of basic robust system design.

The Trader's Window is out of print.

 

TSP awaits your contribution toward moving it forward.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

 

Completion Percentage

Dear Ed,

Thanks for all the feedbacks and support mails I receive.

I feel up and down when I look to my recent progresses of my Big Wave:

*) I have completed at least 85% of the research on Portfolio Heat. I am working on coding some Heat allocation rules based on trade profitability.

*) I start to explore multi-system and multi-timeframe. I feel there is a lot of work to be done.

*) In general I feel I have tried a lot, find a lot of things that do not work (good thing) and come up with a bunch of new ideas. Really cool!

*) I have completed 55% of the available material in System Dynamics. I see a massive potential in mastering that technology.

*) I notice I keep receiving other people mail which are very inspiring. I see Big Hearts.

*) The relationship with my girlfriend is growing stronger, I feel I am a better receiver and I keep supporting her during this though times.

*) I am in-line with the hours scheduled.

I wonder how you know that you are 85% of the way toward something that you do not know about.

Thursday, June 4, 2009


Are Women Born This Way?

Clip: http://www.snotr.com/video/2630

Thank you for setting this matter straight for me.

 

 

Clip: http://www.quiltbus.com/images/

women-remote.jpg

Thursday, June 4, 2009

 

Wants a Trading Account
 

Ed,


I get the idea your response to me trading for you will be negative, if this is the case you could consider telling me sooner, but before you do this, you could add up all the trades I have sent you and compute the risk-reward ratio, win-lose ratio and note the resulting Kelly formula will have a positive payout and a very high number.

You might consider putting your track record into some sort of standard form, with proof that the data is authentic.

 

I wonder where you get the idea that the investor's job is to monitor your trading, from emails about select trades and then figure out all your ratios for you.

 

 

Arrogance:

 

a False Sense of Entitlement

 

 

Clip: http://www.despair.com/arrogance.html

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

 

Socialism and Jail

 

Ed,

 

As I'm learning to experience my anger, I try to remember how I deal with it growing up. I can't remember what is the punishment that I expect if I express anger to my parents--I think I'm so terrified of the punishment that I can't even think what it is.

I search for a metaphor to illustrate how absurd the idea of expressing anger at my elders appears to me. I remember Stephen King's Shawshank Redemption. I also remember this passage by Viktor Suvorov, a Soviet military intelligence officer who defects to Britain in 1978 to write about Soviet history from his Inside the Soviet Army.

The great ideals of Socialism are simple and can be understood by anyone.

Society is built upon reasonable principles. Unemployment is a thing of the past. Medical services are free. Food, in reasonable quantities, is free, too. Every person has a separate room, with light and ventilation. Water, drainage and heating are free. Everyone has the right to some free time. There are no rich or poor. Everyone has comfortable, durable clothing, appropriate to the time of year--and this is, of course, provided free. Everyone is equal before the law.

You may say that this is nothing but a beautiful dream, that no one has ever succeeded in building pure socialism. Nonsense. In every country there are already islands of pure, untainted Socialism, in which each one of these requirements are met.
 

Is there a prison in your town? If so, go and take a look at it--you will find yourself in a society in which everyone is fed, and everyone has work, in which clothing, accommodation and heating are all provided free.

I wonder how you feel about this.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

 

Milk Model

Ed,

The Milk project is evolving very fast! Congratulations!


I am writing to give my contributions and suggestions on a couple of points since my last read 7 days ago and I see everything is already taken care of!

Amazing stuff!

Thank you for your feedback.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

 

Radial Momentum

see Levitator
 

Hello Ed,

I read the Levitator webpage and enjoy it from top to bottom. I am no expert in fluid dynamics so I take no issue with your hypothesis. It makes sense and is clearly explained in this article.

 

My comments are more aimed at the communication itself—what works and what could be improved.

1. You have a gift for simplification. Much of the article takes the complex and makes it simple and fun, graphic and visual yet scientific as well. At the same time there are places where the reader is assumed to have some depth of scientific knowledge simply because a term is mentioned (e.g. references to Bernoulli and Bernoulli’s Equation) before it is explained later in the text. If the intended audience is broader than the scientifically aware, then placing definitions along with “first mentions” of a term is a useful principle to observe. Some of the following comments address this issue.

2. “Radial Momentum is a property of fluid that explains lift in the levitator and in other devices.”
 

a. I do not know what a levitator is at this point in the article. The remainder of the article explains why Radial Momentum is a better explanation for lift. Wikipedia tells me that lift is the component of force perpendicular to fluid flow. It may be more useful to start with a definition of lift and a stated hypothesis that the theory of RM explains lift more accurately and comprehensively than the existing (300 year old) theory, namely the Bernoulli principle.

b. Next, what is that levitator, anyway? A short video of the levitating card would be effective here.
 

3. “On this site, I present some cool toys including a levitator, a paper cone and some fancy squirt guns.”
 

a. You present more than the listed items. You elucidate a compelling argument for the RM hypothesis including scientific experimentation and computer modeling. Your sentence above could go on to say “...and use these items to demonstrate the power of the RM hypothesis to comprehensively explain the phenomena of “lift” in a way that the

Bernoulli principle cannot.”
 

4. Experiments section – great visuals. Special disks – the parallel channel disk’s failure to lift is a very powerful argument. I say to myself upon reading “ok, now I get why he calls it “radial momentum” and why it explains lift. Yet this experimental proof is not highlighted in the text or photos in proportion to its “aha” magnitude.

5. “The Point of it All--This site presents the case that levitation has to do with Radial Momentum, not with fluid velocity.”
 


a. This comment is found about 15% down the page. I would prefer to see it right up front. From a communications perspective that would fall in to “tell them what you’re going to tell them...etc.”
 

6. The Professor section – interesting example of a dull thinker, but it sounds a bit peevish to post about his limited imagination to the world. Given the UNR business card, those in the know will quickly figure out who he is, possibly earning you an unneeded enemy. He is obviously not a person to take on the world or the textbook publishers himself, unlike the radial radical who wrote the levitator article. :-)

7. LOL at experimenter subjecting himself to hardships...

8. Cavitation ring observation: as powerful as #4 above. Better emphasis. Jet with trailing ring is a powerful observation that mimics the water-jet cavitation ring. Very interesting stuff. Are you aware of anyone who has tried to explain that phenomenon with the Bernoulli equation, and whether they were successful?

9. Conclusion says that the Bernoulli equation does not apply to the levitator. Does that also mean that it does not apply to lift? If so, say so. That is the critical point of the whole article, right.

Thank you Ed for asking for my feedback on the levitator webpage. Let me know if there is anything more I can do to assist.

Thank you for your feedback.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

 

Hard Decision

 

Ed,

I feel a lot of inspiration and I admire you and other Reno participants which opt to get the fire in order to ride the Big Wave.

I personally find it an hard decision to make.

 

Congratulations!

Decide: from de-cide, to kill off alternatives.

 

Choose: a creative act.

 

Procrastinate: Maybe I can get around to defining this one later.

June 3, 2009
 

Italian Tomato Garden - Joke

 

Ed,

An old Italian lived alone in New Jersey He wanted to plant his annual tomato garden, but it was difficult work, as the ground was hard. His only son, who used to help him, was in prison. The old man wrote a letter to his son and described his predicament:


Vincent,
I am feeling sad because it looks like I won't be able to plant my tomato garden this year. I'm just getting too old to be digging up a garden plot. I know if you were here my troubles would be over I know you would be happy to dig the plot for me, like in the old days.
Love, Papa


A few days later he received a letter from his son.

Dear Pop,
Don't dig up that garden. That's where the bodies are buried.
Love,
Vinnie


At 4 a.m. the next morning, FBI agents and local police arrived and dug up the entire area without finding any bodies. They apologized to the old man and left.

That same day the old man received another letter from his son.

Dear Pop,
Go ahead and plant the tomatoes now. That's the best I could do under the circumstances.
Love you,
Vinnie

Thank you for the yarn.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

 

Phillips Machine:

Modeling Economy with Water, circa 1949

 

Ed,

Take a look at this.

 

Site: http://judson.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/

06/02/guest-column-like-water-for-money/

Thank you for the clip.

 

This appears to be a precursor of our current modeling work.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

 

Milk Model Feedback

 

Hi Ed & Tribe,
 

Great work on the model Ed! I enjoy playing with the model over the last few days.

I notice that if the slider remains at zero that the application runs and no milk enters the glass. In real life I suppose moving the slider corresponds with putting the glass under the flow, just because I do not move the glass to receive the milk does not mean the milk is not being poured out. Perhaps someone else is getting my milk. I remain in the Now focusing on the target, flow, etc. To get a smooth curve and rate of fill…it is interesting where we can end up when there are no policies…

I like the design changes…the slider at the top…

I like the fact the application runs fairly fast…mimics life in many respects…and if you are not paying attention you get milk all over you…

I notice my policy variations each time I fill with different intentions…I also notice my feelings about other levels in my life and the policies affecting those levels…what affects my level of happiness or joy, my level in my trading account, my level of satisfaction with my relationships, etc?

I am thankful for the trading tribe…I feel policies are changing perhaps one at a time in my life…

I notice in the actual experience of pouring liquids that rate of change begins slowly then advances more rapidly then rate of change must slow considerably before stopping at the target level…

I enjoy the milk model very much…I think about a lot of different things related to levels, rates, flow and policies. I can picture a chemist with a flask in one had pouring in at a certain rate and in the other hand a large syringe pulling out at a different rate…I work with liquid dynamics most of my professional life but the exercise gives me new insights into “the flow” of markets and the economy…

Thank you for the opportunity to participate in this development Ed.

Thank you for the feedback.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

 

Trying to Meet Women
 

Ed,

 


At the suggestion of a Tribe member, I record how I feel right before I approach a woman and how I feel after the conversation. I also decide to record my feelings on a few days during the week. I include these logs here in my update as you may find them useful to get a better sense of my feelings as I work on my Wave.

Feelings Log before and after approaching women:
 

1) Before: Feel nothing, feel calm.
After: Neutral, don't feel real happy or disappointed. I think it goes somewhat well. I notice that I am more comfortable after I talk to her for a bit.
 

2) Before: Feel nervous, anxious. Once I decide to approach the girls I feel nothing, perhaps I am in a zone of focus on the task at hand.
After: I feel incredibly happy. I feel amazement and joy at how successful it is. During the course of conversation I am in disbelief that it is actually happening.
 

3) Before: I feel tired, lack of energy.
After: The conversation does not go very well but I am OK with it. She is not in a good mood and I think that she does not want to talk.
 

4) Before: I am frustrated and a bit upset with myself for not having success with the commitment I make to my Tribe. Once I hear someone approaching I get very happy that I have an opportunity to talk to a girl.
After: I feel very happy that I complete my commitment for the day.


Feelings Log by day:
Friday - I feel tired, headache near each of my temples, dehydrated. At night I feel tired, I feel my body "shutting down" and not wanting me to continue.

Saturday - I still feel tired. I feel relaxed during the day when I am playing golf with my friends. After a girl that I met on Thursday does not respond to me I feel rejection. I notice that I have not felt this way in a while. I try to experience my rejection. I notice I enjoy it a bit more when I do. I feel something in my chest, around both of my lungs. I feel like I have the urge to cry but I do not have enough of a stimulus to make me cry. I have trouble sleeping.

Sunday - I wake up several times in the early morning. I get out of bed early but do not feel energized. My mind is racing and I cannot organize my thoughts. I have enough energy to complete a good workout at the gym. I feel tired and sore on the right side of my neck. My head feels heavy, the middle of my back is sore. I feel like my body is telling me to shut down. I feel overwhelmed at all of the things that I am working on and all of the things that I think I need to do. I notice that I do not want to go out and approach and talk to more women. I feel like I do not have the energy to have a conversation.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking this issue to Tribe.

 

 

Trying to Get a Date

 

can be trying.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://honeymoonsinc.com/UserDyn/

Honeymoons/leblanclobbybar.jpg

Tuesday, June 2, 2009 

 

New Highs

 

Dear TTP Big Wave Support Team,

This is to report my progress and commitment to my big wave.

First thank you for volunteering to support my Big Wave.

The relationship with my daughter is improving everyday. We share feelings and I feel when she tries to put me in drama. She starts to force a cry.

Last Saturday me and my daughter go (went) to a park. We spend two hour there and we play a lot. She rides a bicycle and she asks to me to buy a airplane toy. I remember when I was a kid I love to travel by airplane. I used to go to the pilot cabin. I feel happy.

Every Wednesday we have a dinner together (me my wife and daughter).

Since the workshop I using the language about the process. For instance say thank you for every gesture that the others people do. It is strange. It seems like the others sometimes don’t like to receive a simple thank you. When I respond e-mails. Sometimes I fell that someone wants some help (for instance with trading, emotions) I comment and the K-not about the feeling is so strong that the people tries to deny the feeling.

I’m in the process to just receiving the felling that the other people send.

I have some issues about talk. I talk a lot and I talk about what I feel about the the feelings of the other people.

I'm trying to mix the process and respect the others the way they are.

After the workshop I'm letting my daughter show her feelings and don't use the word no. Sometimes my daughter wants a chocolate in the morning I give to her. My wife starts to complain about that. Sometime she wants a baby bottle of the princess and my wife says that it is dirty and I wash the baby bottle of the princess my wife says that I take out her authority.

About the relationship with my bosses is much better.

I was fired last Monday. I don’t have bosses anymore.

Just me. I want to say thanks specially for Ed and [Name] showing that what I really want to do is work for myself. Thank you.

Stick to my system.

I'm following every signal since the last report.

In one market, I have three losers in row. The fourth signal I follow without any hesitation. Thank you for supporting me.

The amazing thing is before the workshop my system was showing a profit and my fund showing a loss.

After the workshop, I followed any signal and my fund is in a new high.

One market here in [Country] I have a profit almost 8 times my initial stop loss.

It like The Whipsaw Song. "One good trend pays for 'em all". Thank your for the song, Ed.

This market is that one that my ex-bosses asked me to cover the position.

Thank you Ed and all my supporters to show that to have a profit the most important part is Sticking to my system.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

One Test to Find Out

 

if someone wants help

 

is to hear them request it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://imagecache.allposters.com/images/

pic/IMC/r9595~Lend-Me-Your-Ear-Posters.jpg

Monday, June 1, 2009

 

Wants to Apprentice

Hello Ed,

I would define the term apprentice in this context as any type of situation where I may learn about trading from you. It would ideally be full time in NV for maximum exposure, or some other type of distance arrangement.

I am a young man, who badly wants to be a successful trader. I do not have a lot to offer in return for what I am asking, but I am willing to work for whatever it takes to achieve my goals. Please let me know if there is any type of arrangement you would consider.

Apprentice: NOUN: 1. One bound by legal agreement to work for another for a specific amount of time in return for instruction in a trade, art, or business. apprenticeship

I wonder what kind of skills you have and what kind of productive work you intend to perform.

 

 

The Apprentice Does the Work

 

 

clip: http://www.thegardnermuseum.com/

profilestone_files/image001.jpg

Monday, June 1, 2009

 

From Control to Intimacy

Dear Ed and all,

I re-read my reports and the metrics. I realize that, while they are sophisticated and well designed, they miss the point. The idea is to have spontaneous intimacy-based reactions, not to act like a robot, write down all my answers and say “I am acting with intimacy 78.25% of the time”. It is like a trader who tries to show how committed he is to win by reporting that he is trading the whole day, although he cannot show a profit…Furthermore, just one or two wrong answers (to my children, to my wife) may do a lot of harm.

In the last five days I also do a substantial observation in the relationship with my wife. I realize that I am not the monster I feared to be, that some needs are just impossible to fulfill, and that we both used attitudes of the other to generate some feelings. I am worried that some issues are still unresolved after discussing them a lot of times over the years. However, I see that as I change my attitude about the problem and receive the feelings of my wife, she changes her acting.

I have a long talk with my daughter about her fears. She wants to get rid of it. One month ago she talked about that with my wife, but asked her not to tell me. My wife observes that I have a much better communication with my daughter.

I observe that I start using the question “How do I respond in this situation from an intimacy-based approach?” very frequently and that the process is much faster and sometimes automatic. I wholeheartedly thank [Name] for his suggestion of not using “I stop control” but “I use intimacy”. Great advice! But I am not quite satisfied.

I think a lot about the issues (control-rejection) that I want to work on at the IV meeting. My current commitment is not to provide metrics, but to take this issues to the hot seat and to resolve it.

Thanks you for your support.

Next week I will be abroad and my report can be late.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

In the End, the Tin Man Discovers

 

he's OK just as he is.

 

 

 

 

clip: http://www.megomuseum.com/woz/

images/TinmanLoose.jpg

Monday June 1, 2009

 

Progress

 

Ed,


I log in 30 hours last week. Underwent two days of training, and made a huge impact. I created 2 models from scratch with the Stella software, a model of a martial arts school, another of the exp cross over. Was a huge break through week. I continue to look forward and enjoy the journey.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Monday, June 1, 2009

 

Traits


Dear Ed,

Can you please tell / guide me about following?

What are the psychological and emotional traits of an experienced profitable trader?

You were profiled in Market Wizards book. Which trading books would you recommend to a person who wants to succeed as a trader?

Thanks in advance for any guidance.

Traits of an successful trader with experience: money and experience.

 

You might consider checking your implication that emotional traits "cause" experience.

 

I have a link to some resources, above.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Steve Martin Takes the Banjo Seriously
 

Ed,

You might like this.

 

Article: http://online.wsj.com/article/

SB1000142405297020365850457

4193291486232598.html

Thank you for the article!