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Ed Seykota's FAQ

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November 21 - 30, 2009

 

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Contributors Say

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Ed Says

Monday, November 30, 2009

 

Out Of Date


Dear Mr. Seykota / Representative,

I recently have been turned on to the Turtle Tribe and was interested in learning more about the website and the method of trading and life.

 

I have come to find that much of the content is out-of-date and was curious if there was another site, or other materials that I could utilize to increase my knowledge and awareness. I am incredibly eager to absorb as much information as possible in order to become more knowledgeable about Mr. Seykota’s theories and beliefs.

Thank you for any information that you can provide to me and any other assistance.

I know of www.TurtleTrader.com and this site, www.TradingTribe.com; I do not know a a Turtle Tribe.

 

You might consider reviewing some of the "out of date" notions such as:

using clear and accurate language

trading with the trend

managing risk

 

and comparing them with their "stylishly contemporary" upgrades.

Monday, November 30, 2009

 

Double Digits


Dear Tribe;

My account was dizzyingly up on Wednesday in DOUBLE DIGITS. That felt great- so I put in a bunch of stops over Thanksgiving, which triggered the next morning. Now I am Up only 6%.

Being around the family has been wonderful. Everyone seems calmer, happier and nicer than I have seen in years. I am assuming it is me. The whole experience has been extremely absorbing,. I feel like I could make a movie of it because I have experienced so many strong feelings, some bad, most good, all absorbing.

D... I am glad I have this tribe, both great tribes. Thank you for your support.

I will be changing my workouts next week.

A week of travel, or vacation, or what you will.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Monday, November 30, 2009

 

Moving and Exponential Averages


Hi Ed,

In my pursuit of a trading system I have found that there are companies on the web selling formulas for moving averages that they claim follow the market better than any other. (And there was me thinking only of the good old exponential.)

- For a medium term trend following system, is it possible to program a moving average that works better than the exponential?

Also, if you have not already I thought you may enjoy the following book that I recently read, as it is in the same vein as 'toxic parents' and is rather good

http://www.amazon.co.uk/They-You-Up-

Survive-Family/dp/0747551561


many thanks.

Moving Averages and Exponential Averages (technically, Exponential Lags) work similarly and with similar results.

Monday, November 30, 2009

 

Working of a System

Dear Ed and Support Team,

There have been no new system signals this week but two contracts have rolled. I have realized that I need to track contract rolls in detail so I have included a second worksheet which tracks the rolls and the variations between the theoretical system results and the actual results. This version is quite rough and the details are incomplete and I am working on improvements. I now have rollover rules for quarterly and monthly contracts.

There is a new (blank!) column called Trade Refs. I have realized that my tracking method has been too simple and so I am working on a system which will include key references. I am researching how to do this professionally.

I have made slow process on the issue of how to create back-adjusted files and I am now likely to have at least two data sets for back-testing. One which is back-adjusted, and one which is simple splicing. I am learning how to program Mechanica to deal with the second method. I do not know if this is really necessary or not, in fact most of the literature I could find suggests that it isn't, but when I ran my own comparisons I found quite material differences from one method to another.

I have resolved the problem with missing CAC contracts in CSI which was caused by how they classify quarterly and monthly contracts and my lack of understanding. I think I have also found what causes the bug on dates changing in Excel which only happens if I change the file type.

Thank you for your support.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

 

Comments go Viral


Hello Ed and All,

Things have really picked up around here.

My comments on the US Dollar went viral then went Glen Beck radio then TV then global.

We have had inquiries from [around the world].

I have been offered to write a forward for a book,
participate in an upcoming presidential campaign and received about 1 billion in money interest
these are investors with names and phone numbers that have opted in.

We have started bringing in money last week but am overwhelmed, and have a 60 day backlog.

I have hired three interns and am process planning with team to include predictive dialing etc.

We are also thinking that maybe an advisory relationship with a fund complex might be easier and more fluid for general public assets-

We are also thinking of having multi tier levels
for fund participation that would encourage higher $dollar commitments.


Am anxious lately. Excited but nervous about my
ability to "handle " it all.

Am feeling that, then allowing it to pass-

I will be spending one week with a Tibetan lama  that initiated me as a child - at Odiyan in December.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

 

Developing a Trading System


Ed,

Thank you all for the insights and suggestions following my updates. They are very useful to me.
 

Since my last update, I revisit my processes.
 

1. I review my schedule that I post in my first update. The completion dates are my projections into the future which I realize I cannot access. Additionally, I notice that such deadlines helps me procrastinate and also limiting. So I intend to spend 2 hours on weekdays and 4 hours on weekend days on the project going with the flow.
I also add other steps to my project to account for how I intend to stick to my system.

2. I revisit my system math and see that I am in error in my calculations. I simulate several possibilities of ACAGR, DD and recoveries from DD. I note that a return of 20% with draw down of 33% and MAR of 0.6 is one that I feel most in alignment with. I do realize that in reality, my feelings may be different than in simulation and hence the need to develop a system to stick to my system as I allude to above.

I also work on market selection, trend definition and entry rules.
1. I study average daily volume, margin requirement, volatility and correlation. I notice volume increase especially in recent years but so has money at play. I am not sure about optimum volume to define a liquid or illiquid market. I consider equity to margin ratios but I am not sure what I should consider adequate. Ed's clarification of moving average of ATR / Price ratio as a comparison measure among different instruments is greatly insightful.


I seek clarity on the use of volume to define liquidity and the use of equity to margin ratio in market selection step.

I notice the importance of checking data for errors during this exercise. I use CSI data. I notice duplicate, absent and weekend data.

2. The system's definition of a trend is: n-period price breakout up. This is a long only system.

I intend to work on the entry rules and exit rules together and report in my next update.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

 

Positive Intention of Dread


Hi Ed,

At the last Reno Workshop you talk at length about the importance of serving others. You posit that Right Livelihood is a communal activity in which a person shares his unique gifts with the world. You assert that life is meaningless without service. You surmise that life is largely about working through problems so you can serve other people.

When I return home from the workshop I consider your words. I think about my role in the world and ways in which I serve others. I recall as a child feeling deeply gratified when helping my father mow the grass, or helping my grandmother wash the dishes. I remember the pride I feel from managing my own paper route, and selling magazines for my elementary school. I recall the anguish I feel upon hearing my parents state that I am "good for nothing" on occasions when I do something wrong.

As I consider the ways in which I can serve others. I receive a telephone call from a close friend. His wife is filing for divorce and an important business deal is falling apart. We talk at length about TTP. He states that he is willing to attend a local tribe meeting. Though I am very busy with work, I fly out to meet him so I can personally introduce him to the local tribe in his area. I think my presence might support his process.

At the tribe meeting my focus is on my friend and his process. I feel clear and do not think I have any feelings I want to address. As the meeting progresses another tribe members addresses his feelings of dread. Unexpectedly, as I support his process I also begin to feel strong feelings of dread. I eventually take the hotseat and explore the feeling.

As I experience my forms I realize that dread is a feeling I know well. It is with me nearly every day of my life. As a child I love to play when arriving home from school. I recall playing in the front yard for hours with my friends, laughing, running, and enjoying the outdoors. However, when the afternoon ends I know I must walk through the front door and begin my homework. I hate homework. I do not understand why I must do it. I do not like much of the subject matter. I do not like its compulsory nature. I feel angry. I resist. I procrastinate. I do not complete my homework. I then feel sad. I think my parents might be right. Maybe I am good for nothing. I do not understand how my siblings can do their homework so effortlessly. I think something must be wrong with me.

As an adult I feel many of those same feelings. When my workday begins I experience feelings of dread as I compile and work through my daily "to do" list. I feel angry when I think about the many things I have to do. I resist doing them. I procrastinate. I feel sad when I do not finish the items on my "to do" list. I compare myself to other successful people and wonder what is wrong with me.

While on the hotseat I realize an important pattern in my life. I feel dread when I must do something I consider onerous. I then feel anger. Sadness comes last. With the support of my tribe I recall these memories and allow these feelings to wash over me one by one. However, after I experience the last feeling - sadness - I am suddenly overtaken with laughter. I see myself as a child struggling with homework. I see myself as an adult struggling with my "to do" lists. I laugh at the absurdity of it all. I giggle at the thought of both child and adult fretting over these chores when a great, big world awaits their real contribution. I realize that I am not broken at all for wanting to avoid these tasks.

After the tribe meeting I think about the positive intention of dread. I realize that the feeling of dread is trying to call attention to my actions. Dread is trying to keep me true to myself. Dread is trying to show me what is important.

Now, when I feel dread I question what I am doing. I ask whether a task is true to my intentions. I question whether it supports my desire to serve others. I ask whether it is consistent with the person I want to be.

 

Dread is now my Right Livelihood Compass.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

 

Progress  on Starting a Fund


Dear Support Team,

Thank you for supporting me in my Big Wave as I move towards right livelihood. Over the past few months (particularly the fast few weeks) I notice my dreams are now becoming reality. This is a very exciting time for me and I am happy to have each of you part of my adventure. I appreciate all comments and criticisms openly.

Progress:
1) I am near completion of the company Client Agreement. Developing this is a great experience as I learn the importance of effective communication and clear agreements.
2) I am now finalizing my company documents.
3) I now have a mission statement for my company. I appreciate any input here. Mission Statement:

"To share our experience on systematic trend following with each investor in our target market, support them in determining if our services our appropriate, and serve those who are compatible with our offering."

4) I spend time testing basic trend following system as a platform for my system development. I have many "aha" moments in this process and use this platform for next steps in system design.
5) I speak with friends and potential investors to develop awareness of [Name] Capital Management.
6) I am now close to assembling a package to send to my current shareholders on my progress.

Focus moving forward:
1) I intend to continue system design and optimization.
2) I intend to begin managing client money in January 2010.
3) I continue to love and support those in my life by serving them in every way I can.

Thank you again for your support.

OK.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

 

Tribe for Engineers


I spend most of this week talking to people about my engineering tribe. I publish a document about engineers' emotions.


Example:

Shame

In the Real World: Shame is the feeling that associates with failure to adhere to community norms. Some communities have norms around clothing. Shame informs people's decisions to wear clothes to work and, conversely, no clothes to public showers. Individuals who try to block shame may end up with too few or too many clothes on. We call people who block shame, "shameless."

In Software: Other communities have norms around coding practices, exception handling, input validation, or naming conventions. An engineer who tries to avoid shame may refuse to let his peers review his code. He may resist source control and unit testing. He may resist criticism and suggestions from his managers or users. His component gets less auditing and testing than others. It is more likely to fail in production, bringing big-time shame to its autho

 

I get very interesting feedback on it. I am thinking about publishing the feedback the way Ed publishes his FAQ.

4 people commit to attend my tribe's inaugural meeting this Wednesday.

I recall a recurring dream: I want to fire and can't -- sometimes I can't pull the trigger, sometimes I pull and nothing happens, sometimes I can't pull a gun from its holster.

This week I have the same dream, but it turns out different. Someone is firing at me. I am trying to return fire but my gun double-feeds. I
clear the jam, but the gun double-feeds again. On the third or fourth attempt, I get a round in the chamber and fire. I hit my opponent below his right shoulder. The shooting stops.


Assets:       $564,090.31
Liabilities:  $522,143.58
Net:          $ 11,964.73
500oz goal:   $583,250.00

Thank you for sharing your process.

Friday, November 27, 2009

 

Math Aha

 

Dear Ed,

I read the FAQ question about instantaneous compounding.

I ponder the formula instantaneous compounding and how it relates to the standard compounding formula.

I need to refresh my memory.

I feel that I may have some confusion on this issue and my investigation is possibly something I can share, in order to be of service to others.

Formula for compounding in my text book:

FV = PV(1+r/m)^m*n
where: FV = Future Value
PV = Present Value
r = stated annual interest rate
m = number of compounding periods per year
n = number of years

This formula can also be simplified into the one which most people recognize and is the one that is most commonly referred to.

FV = PV(1+r)^n
Where: FV = Future Value
PV = Present Value
r = interest rate per compounding period, this being equal to the r/m in the previous formula
n = number of compounding periods, this being equal to the m*n in the previous formula

I refer to this formula as the “Usual” formula

We can normalize different interest rates and different compounding periods into an Effective Annual Rate (EAR) for ease of comparison

Effective Annual Rate (EAR) +1 = (1+r/m)^m*n where n is equal to 1 year

Continuous compounding has a slightly different EAR formula:

EAR +1 = e^r

Where:
e = 2.71828183…
r = stated annual interest rate

Using an example of 10% stated annual interest rate I investigate the effects of various compounding periods:

Calculate the EAR for a stated annual interest rate of 10% compounded: semi-annually, quarterly, monthly, daily

Now I investigate Ed’s continuous compounding formula in the System Math document.
 

Equity From ICAGR

Equity = OriginalEquity * e (DateRangeInYears * ICAGR)

e = 2.71828183 …

For a $1,000.00 account with a 10% instantaneous annual rate, for 2 years:

Equity = 1000.00 * e (2 * .1) = 1221.40


I look at Ed’s formula, I look at the spreadsheet with the continuous compounding comparatives.

“aha”

I notice the EAR +1 equivalent of the continuous compounding substitutes for the (1+r/m)^m in my textbook formula. I recognize this is the e^r in Ed’s formula.

The EAR+1 = e^r should replace the (1+r) in the usual formula where continuous compounding is required. This should give the same result as Ed’s formula.

I test this out

The results match. I am confident with the formula.

I am confident I can solve interest computations with compounding problems.

I go back to tackle the FAQ problem referring to the exponential moving average crosser system.

I now have the ability to check and deconstruct Ed’s system comparative of 10% compounded continuously.

I perform the computation based on a starting equity of $1,000,000, interest of 10% compounded continuously for 8493 days or 23.2685 years.

My result is 10,245,609.94 which doesn’t match Ed’s value of 32,716,679.04

I feel disappointment. No matter, I can deconstruct the formula and solve for r to see what values Ed has used.

First I re-arrange the continuous compounding formula:

FV = PV*e^(r*n)
FV/PV = e^(r*n)
ln(FV/PV) = r*n
ln(FV/PV)/n = r
I solve for r using Ed’s given starting and ending equity values

I compute 15%
 

In the instructions for the EA crossover system I see

Output
The system sketches the equity value, records the results in an equity log, the essential computations in a metrics log and the trades in a trade log.

For visual comparison, the system also sketches a curve of the initial equity growing at a compound annual growth rate of 10% per year.

I look at the 150/15 performance log provided by Ed.

Ed has clearly stated ICAGR for the run as 15%

I feel foolish, I don’t care, this has been an extremely useful and worthwhile exercise.

I am glad I have done it and I feel confident I can deal with any compounding problems I am faced with.

OK.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

 

Stash the Flash

Dear Ed,

The more I read the Essentials Card or I listen to your song the more I realized how unique you are in conveying deep thoughts in simple terms.


One passage however it is not clear to me.
As I read you saying on 19 November 2009:

“As essential rules for trading, File the News comes right after Stick to the System.

If you have back tested your system there is no need to watch the news, making it irrelevant and therefore one might consider the way to deal with a "hot news flash" is to "stash it in the trash."

I notice that you say “watching the news is irrelevant” (totally agree).


I am wondering despite it is irrelevant, you still put “file the news” among the essentials?.


The only possibility I see is if something is irrelevant (the news) the act of filing or stashing it may still be essential and dealing with the feelings which arise in doing so important too.

Thank you for your help

You are likely in place to receive various types of news.

 

You have a variety of ways of dealing with the receipt of news, including reacting to it, passing it on, and discarding it (stashing it in the trash).

 

 

 

 

Stashing the Trash

 

is sometimes the best way

to deal with it.

 

 

Clip: http://farm1.static.flickr.com/25/89104831_

20a47ce195.jpg?v=0

 

Thursday, November 26, 2009

 

ATR / Price
 

Dear Ed,

On 19 Nov 2009 you reply to a Contributor:

"You might consider framing volatility as a ratio of a moving average of ATR : price."

I am wondering if you are referring to "unadjusted", actual price for stocks or futures.

In my experience the ratio ATR with unadjusted price works better but is not perfect too.

The idea is to normalize ATR with Price so as to be able to compare volatilities from different instruments.

 

The concept is not specific to the method of adjusting price.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

 

Thank You!
 

Hi Ed,

Today I am thankful for much in my life. One of the things for which I give thanks is your remarkable work. Due to your efforts, my life and the lives of my family are much improved.

Thank you!

Thank you for your acknowledgment and support.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Hello all,

I know that the 26th is a US holiday, but I want to wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving. I am reflecting on what I am thankful for – my friends and family and you. Thanks for being my support group!
 

Additionally, I am thankful for Love, Truth, Honesty, Simplicity, Health, The Trading Tribe and TTP, all that makes a trend, Intention = Results or Results = Intention.

I start working on a book with two local friends. I feel this helps me with Right-Livelihood.

I continue to simulate trading and experience feelings.

I hope this finds you well!

Thank you for sharing your process.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

 

Baseball


Mr. Seykota,

Thank you for sharing your EcoNowMics study with us.

I begin and complete a trading system that I am implementing on January 1, 2010. It is slightly over two years since introducing myself to trend-following and statistical thinking. Throughout the learning process, I have many A-HA's and develop more trust towards trend-trading.

I recall my career as a baseball pitcher. As I log more hours of simulated practice and live game play, the more I learn about what my body is capable of, how to get hitters out more efficiently, how to adjust to the umpire's strike zone and other outside elements.

 

I come across many pitchers with talent to propel to the next level, but fail to do so. By observing these pitchers, I notice the majority refuse to accept the fact that they cannot throw their fastball past the hitter on every pitch. These pitchers typically wind up frustrated after getting hit hard and giving up a lot of runs.

 

Assuming they do not take the time to adjust their style, which many of these pitchers do not, they often expend even more energy on trying to throw fastballs by hitters and get hit even harder.

 

There are many other lessons I learn by playing baseball that I incorporate into my philosophy and trading system.

I am wondering if you are willing to share a lesson you learn through your journey.

 

Thank you.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <batters hitting fast balls> and <whipsaws> to Tribe.

 

 

Baseball,  lLke Making Pancakes

 

is game in which the cream

 

is either in the pitcher or the batter.

 

Clip:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_eo2Equ6rnIk/

SFnvbB2x8oI/AAAAAAAABhY/mejZrIrTM9

g/s400/amandabeard1.jpg

 

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

 

Giving Thanks

 

Dear Ed,


Thank you for your continuing support and your feedback.

You are welcome.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

I am excited about this coming Breathwork. One issue I am confronting and mastering is the lack of consistency and intimacy with my goal or purpose. I keep flip flopping on it. I bounce around with different time frames and perspectives. I notice a couple things.

1. If I focus on what I get then the goal is causal. It is in the fictitious future. If I do this, then I SHOULD get that. Do what ever it takes NOW and the reward is in the future. Do not worry about the NOW the goal is in the future.

2. If I think about my role serving others or my purpose, this naturally brings me into the NOW. I can serve others NOW. Where this takes me, I cannot know, it is in the future.

I do not realize this at first, but I am trying to control my future goal rather that focus on being in my current role serving others. I feel frustrated about not being able to control my goal/results. If feel like I do not accept what I just wrote.

I keep on trying to work it backwards and trick it. I choose to keep starting with the end result of what I get and figuring out what I need to be to cause that. But, it stays in a fictitious place. I feel like I cannot trust myself to get me there.

 

Somehow my now is not good enough, so I need to give energy to a fictitious future me, who will have more resources and know more than I do now. It seems like a basic change in thinking. My goals do not serve me, I serve my goals. Be committed to the journey not the end result. If my goals are just about what I get then the journey is ignored. My goals are only worth the passion, time and energy I put into them.

On a side note, I want to thank some of the other people posting on FAQ. They are helpful.

 

I feel Ed has already gone over some of the concepts I write about above, I want to share my progress with others.

 

Thanks Ed for everything.

One of the requirements for participation in Breathwork Weekend is to define a specific service that you provide to others - and that you would like to develop.

Monday, November 23, 2009

 

Progress Report

I land a speaking engagement and prepare for it as I have for many other seminars.

I invite everyone I know who might be remotely interested, including you.

I strive to show my best work and add extra capabilities to the software I will use for a demo.

2 days before the event, everything breaks: first software, then glasses, then digestive tract.

This time, I let the stress, anxiety, fear guide me towards solving the problems.

The real progress is that I let myself experience the feelings – centered around churning stomach, headache, tunnel vision at times.

I do not compound the problems by attempting to medicate, at least not in ways I recall from many other seminars.

This is huge cause for celebration and maybe more important than the fact that everything did get fixed in time and went fine.

Thank you for giving me support to experience my feelings.

I think it helped my stress tolerance a lot.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Monday, November 23, 2009 8:50 PM

 

Finding the Joy

 

Hi Ed,

Part of the feedback I am getting from my Workshop support team is that feelings of joy, excitement and pride are absent in my reports.

 

I notice that my wife refers to me as Eeyore when she comments on my joylessness.

I wonder about taking my judgments on these feelings to Breathwork.

 

 

Clip: http://hillbuzz.org/2008/10/23/

adopt-an-eeyore/

 

You might consider identifying what you find so enjoyable about not enjoying things.


Monday, November 23, 2009 3:28 PM

 

Kelly



Hi Ed,


as always I appreciate a lot the great quality of your site.


On Monday, November 16 you say:
 

"Your use of an expectation formula such as Expectation = (profit * probability of profit) - loss * (1- prob. of profit) indicates you feel you can "predict" the probability of an outcome.

 

Trend Traders do not attempt to predict the non-existing future; they stay in the now and respond to trend changes, in the moment of detection."

 

I'm a bit confused: you insert the Kelly formula in your Risk Management paper and also in the Kelly itself there's at least an element of probability / prediction (es. Winning Payoff Rate). I wonder if using this formula is not consistent with following the trend.

Thank you in advance

Kelly, in the sense of the article, gives another way to find optimal bet size.

 

It does not, in this sense, predict anything.

 

You can, if you like, use a toothbrush or a wagon wheel or a peanut butter sandwich to work your prediction magic.

 

 

As Far as Prediction Tools Go

 

a toothbrush

 

is as good as any, and better than some.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.coolbusinessideas.com/

toothbrush%20toys.bmp

 

Monday, November 23, 2009

 

Uncle Point


Ed,

Concerning the "uncle point", may we use this term in the two sides?

 

I mean during drawdown AND during "drawup" from the moment that the trader quits and abandons his plan.

You may use any term you like.

Monday, November 23, 2009

 

System Testing


Dear Ed and Support Team,

 

Thanks again to everyone who has given feedback to my progress. Sometimes it is only a sentence or two, but it is helping and I am using it for direction.

Summary of this week included lots of reading, inputting a Turtle System into Excel, and dealing with the feelings associated with both creating the system (there is procrastination), the whipsaws in the systems results (sense of loss and desire to break rules), and after writing about my goals for Breathworks (frustration in amount of causal thinking and self doubt).

I use the Turtle Trading System in the back of “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” as my model. The only data I have is from an excel spread sheet on BRLC from TSP. So, I use that from Sept 03 through Sept 05. I understand that statistically this sample is too small to prove anything, but it is the process I am going for. It takes 3-4 hours to complete.

In my first attempt I only I go both long and short trade and do not try to pyramid any trades. This generated 30 in and out trades. There are 17 losers (57%) and 13 (43%) winners. It is interesting to note that after completing this, it ended up with a net loss of $88.00. At this point I notice that the last bet is not closed out due to not having a sell signal. Once I cash that out, there is a $5171 net profit. I am sending this out to get feed back, this is my first attempt, so maybe the whole of this is off or maybe right on, please let me know.

Some things I notice based on a small amount of data:

1) Some large losses are due to only using closing prices. By staying on top of trades, significant losses are avoided.

2) There is a feel that the system basically avoiding losing much money while waiting for trends to emerge. In this example that represents two years and 30 trades, it is the last one that creates all the profits. Wow. Keep pulling the trigger. This is a nice introduction.

3) Volatility hurt this system. In the far right column I show the funds at risk. It seems like this is a lagging indicator. The stock is showing a smaller range this causes more funds to be at risk, then there is volatility generating larger losses and then bet unit size is reduced afterward. I used a consistent account size in my calculations.

4) I am surprised by the number or trades generated on one stock over the course of two years (15 in and out trades a year). This brings up some questions: How selective do I want my system to be? If it is generation hundreds of trades everyday, what is the process I use to decide which ones I go with? Heck, even it only has three trades a month, what is my system for choosing my trades.

5) One must be ready to exit. This system tended to blow through the 10 day minimum a few times.

6) The pyramiding creates a lot of volatility. I am expecting this, but it is beyond my expectations. My stomach feels funny.


My feelings:

* Scrolling down the spreadsheet I feel comfortable with the entry and buying high. I feel very uncomfortable giving back profits. Even after reading about it in books, I am surprised by the discomfort in giving back profits.
* Another thing that does not seem right is that the stock trended down from over 9.0 to 2.81 and is unprofitable when shorting it.
* I feel empowered setting it up on excel. It is easier then expected (if the spreadsheet is correct).

OK.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

 

The Secret Secret
 

Hi Ed and Everyone,

Hope you are well.

Last Sunday we had a tribe meeting in my local tribe and dealt with issue. One of the members caught me and got me pretty good and I was able to get to my secret. The funny thing was I did not even know that was my secret. But when I was cornered, we all knew that was the secret. They received my secret without Judgment. Actually encouraged me to feel the feelings associate with it and open up more. I have an Aha that the secret was an extension of the real issue that is controlling my behavior. The session evolved in to getting to the real issue and I was able to experience the judgment then and there.

 

Thank you to the members of my local tribe. I am very grateful of their commitment and support. It has been a week and I experiment with my medication again however I have no interest or excitement that I used to get and today I am happy to say that craving is completely disappeared.

 

I am in still shock but I tell you that I am so joyful and confident about anything and everything because I know if I can come on top from this, everything else is a piece cake at least for me : -)

Yesterday my parents tried to control me by telling me how old they are getting and anything could happen any day.. basically want me to comeback to [Country] and see them for the holidays, I smiled and sent them picture instead. Too much traveling this year so I told them not this year. They seemed to be OK with that. I am happy I learned to say NO.

Thank you Ed for sharing us great technology to deal with issues that are so cunning and seems almost impossible deal. We enjoy evolving with this technology in our tribe. Many of my proactive rocks that obtained during IV meeting this year is starting to work very very well too.

Though I believe there is a positive intention of keeping a secret to an extent, however not the secret I had. No thanks. Not in that format. Anyway if you want to know what my secret was you are out of luck because I don't have one anymore in the NOW.

Thank you for reading my email.

You might check your intention of telling people you have a secret and not telling them the secret.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <teasing people> to Tribe.

 

 

 

 

A Tease Gets Attention

 

by offering something

 

and then not delivering.

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.becheeky.com/images/image

/_v3/blog/images/Madame%20V%20

Tease%20Me%20Please%20Me%20Set.jpg

 

Sunday, November 22, 2009

 

Starting a Fund

Dear Ed and Support Team,

Thank you for your ongoing support and encouragement.
 

I am busy during the past two weeks working on finalizing our business plan, pro-forma financials and legal documents.

We have two more weeks in the US and then heading back home to start our fund!

The last 6 months in the US is a wonderful experience.

My focus over the next two weeks is:

1 - Marketing and Website material

2 - Packing and getting ready to go home!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

OK.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

 

Riding the Metals

Dear Tribe;


Happy Thanksgiving!
 

A big traveling week. My account +7%. I do love having my account increase. My worry about that is that most of my holdings are metals. Metals are what's working now.


I feel as though I have gotten over the hump of whipsaws. I am comfortable allowing the drawdown, or letting go of the stock- if it comes back I will buy it again. If not , not.
 

4 days travel
4 days gym

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might check to be sure you have protective stops and that you can handle the risk.  If not, you might consider adjusting your position until you can handle the risk.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

 

Re-Framing Dread

 

Dear Ed,


On November 11, 2009 you suggest I take my feelings of dread to my tribe.

 

Other issues come up that week and I think I should work on them instead as they seem more urgent but I take the coaching you give me and work on dread. I start by closing my eyes and I see myself walking down the street heading home with a bad grade on my report card and know I am in for a spanking when my dad gets home.

 

With the encouragement of my tribe members I turn the feeling up feeling fear first and then dread. Inside I feel like a small child powerless to do anything except to go home and face the inevitable beating to come and wishing somehow it would not happen.

 

As I keep feeling that feeling of dread with my tribe members cheering me on, I stop resisting it and keep turning it up as much as I can. After awhile I find myself smiling and feeling very good inside. I realize that I am creating my own misery. Suddenly I felt very adult about the whole situation. How long could the spanking last, 1 minute, 3 minutes, 5 minutes?

 

I got out of school around 3:30, dad got home at 6:00 ate supper first and then dealt with me so I made myself miserable for around 3 hours or so for something that only would last a couple minutes at most.

 

It then occurred kind of silly to me, like a waste of time and humorous that I would spend so much time feeling miserable dreading the punishment and then afterward feeling sad for hours because it did actually happen.

 

The thing I find most amazing about this hot seat is the internal switch I felt from feeling like a helpless child to a much more adult way of feeling about the issue.

 

Thanks Ed and Tribe

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

 

Smiling and Dialing

Ed,

Thank you for the guidance and advice on making sales calls.

I notice that friends and business associates are taking note of my calls. This is the second email I receive this week asking when I will be in town.

I truly appreciate your support.

OK.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

 

Less Drugs, More Benefits
 

Dear Ed,

Just to keep you updated: My Big Wave (= Social Confidence) is coming along rather nicely thank you!

* Between my last post (2 months ago) and now, I do not attract ANY of my old drama whatsoever. Not a single event.

* I haven’t suffered any back pain anymore. The lack of pain appears intricately related to not being fussy about disappointing others from time to time for my own benefit, or even pleasure. Many people do it all the time. And I do too, at least occasionally.

* A side benefit (i.e. the Real Original Goal): Being a social being again. Interacting, and enjoying it. Some people will hate my guts, but so what? My whole drama is quickly turning into a non-issue. Wow!

Regarding my previous BW-update: Some things I life I try to minimize, including nicotine, pot, e (the chemical version; not 2.71828) , cheap porn, and the number of TV sets.

Now that I seem to get a grip on this whole process, my new Big Wave is:

I ensure my current apartment will be sold for One Billion Dollars.

My challenge here is not an obvious one. More on that later.

Thank you all for your continuing support,

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

Your apartment is likely worth at least one billion Zim-Bucks (Zimbabwe Dollars, now historical).

 

Unless your apartment is very, very large, you might have to wait for a few inflation cycles to reach your target price in US Dollars.

 

 

 

You Can Generally Get Your Price

 

if you wait a while.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://images.bidorbuy.co.za/user_images

/621/1102621_090508141053_Zim_10_

Trillion_Dollars.jpg

 

Saturday, November 21, 2009

 

Pictures of Switzerland

 

Dear Ed,

 

I thought you would enjoy these pictures.

andrea.bocelli-zwitserland.pps (slide show)

 

Thank you for the pictures - and for the memories.

Back to the future