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July 1 - 14, 2010

 

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Contributors Say

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Ed Says

Wednesday, July 14, 2010


Taking Responsibility for His Feelings


Ed,

 

I notice I feel certain unhappiness which I like to “blame” on teenage experiences or dumbfounded government employee actions (that affect my profession and business).

Lately, I decide to see this unhappiness as a lack of ME caring and loving of myself. I decide to actively love myself and care for myself continuously and as deeply as I can muster.

The first instance, blaming my unhappiness on prior life experiences or on others behavior, is closely aligned with Causality.

The second instance seems to be more aligned with a System model and assumption of personal responsibility.

I now see the first method is actually easier to implement (lazy, selfish behavior) and the second is more challenging (requires active work NOW) yet infinitely more rewarding.

Cheers!

Thank you for sharing your process and for being a role model for others.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010


How to Avoid Whipsaws


Hi Ed,

I have read in your previous FAQ answers that "it is nice to be out during choppy whipsaw markets"

Please tell how to avoid the choppy whipsaw markets or what are the signals of start of choppy markets.

Whipsaws are part of Trend Trading. See the link to the Whipsaw Song, above. 

 

 

Tuesday, July 13, 2010


Whips and Saws

Hi Ed.

 

Thanks for doing what you do. My kids love the whipsaw song. Ed, My partner and I developed and have been trading a long-term breakout system (for futures) for 5 years now. Everything is going as planned, we continue to backtest and test against actual and everything is working.

 

We have been in a sustained drawdown over the last 18 months which is definitely not as enjoyable as the sustained upward moves in the past.

 

We fully intend to fly this ship to the end and breakout of this current phase and are still confident that the system is capable however, is this the point where we just need to play the whipsaw song over and over and over to help us get through this?

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <endless drawdowns> to Tribe.

 

 

Trend Traders Sometimes Have To Deal

 

with feelings of falling

into a bottomless pit.

 

 

Clip: http://thecleandeal.files.wordpress.com/

2009/11/money_black_hole.jpg

 

Tuesday, July 13, 2010


Contemplating Willingness

 

Dear Ed,


I attend the Tribe meeting in Austin. Each member previously defined a project to be completed by the end of the 10 Tribe meetings. We report progress on the projects. And we describe the deliverable that proves project success. With the help of Tribe members, we refine the deliverables.

One Tribe member takes the hotseat to work on issues with his father, symbolized by a pinewood derby project. The father pressures the son to work on the project, and berates the second place finish. As before, through role play, we find that getting to the expression of feelings of both parties diffuses the issue.

Another member works through mother issues, with similar results.

I am asked to review my willingness to take the hotseat.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010


Feeling Connection


Dear Support Team,

I'm learning and growing personally and technically as I continue with my commitment.

I have a sense of being part of something larger than myself.

I feel both connection and significance in working with others.

Thank you for your support.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

Tuesday, July 13, 2010


Has Trouble Sticking to His System


Hello Ed

I am trading for past 4 years. I have made a simple trading system for myself (based on Moving averages and support and resistance). Now, my problem is the inability to follow it. I enter in the trend fairly early, then after small moves in my favor I have a tendency to book profits and reverse in hope of catching the small correction. Many a times the correction never comes and I am in a losing trade instead of a profitable one.

Many a times I say to myself and even write it on the paper that "I am not going to get out of this position and in no case I am reversing". Still the very next day I get out and even reverse.

A few times I was able to sit tight and caught the majority of the move, but these instances are very few.

What according to you is the problem and how can I get rid of this?

Be Cheerful

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <sticking to your system> to Tribe.

 

 

Stick-To-It Mittens

 

When you feel like jumping your system,

put these on - to protect you

from entering orders

 

until you are willing

to experience the feeling

and let it go.

 

 

Clip: http://www.webstaurantstore.com/

best-value-6786rmt-14-neoprene-oven

-mitts-fryer-mitts-pair/best-value-6786rmt

-14-neoprene-oven-mitts-fryer-mitts-pair.jpg

 

Sunday, July 11, 2010


Figuring the Odds


I ask everyone I see who they think is going to win. Only one person I know chooses the Netherlands. Everyone else is picking Spain to win - including David Beckham.

The current betting trend is 2/3 for Spain, about 30% for the Netherlands, and a small % for a tie after regulation. 75% of the public favors a total of more than 2.5 goals.

Statistically, the Netherlands has a 8% edge over Spain. A tie after regulation is more likely than average. The game total is most likely 2 goals.

Fundamentally, no team in the last 30 years has won the World Cup when they a lost a game in the preliminary round robin matches.

Spain lost one game against a so-so team team.

strategy:

tie after regulation
under 2.5 regulation goals
Netherlands for the win in regulation, extra time or penalty shootout


If Spain wins 3-0, then OBVIOUSLY my analysis SUCKS.

I am going to [location] wearing Orange to watch the game. Regardless of who is the winner, I intend to enjoy a great game and some noodles at [name of restaurant].

I wonder what betting strategy you use: position sizing, adding on, cutting losses, etc.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Wants to Join

 

Ed,

I would like to join TT

See the Tribe Directory, above.

Friday, July 9, 2010


Austin Tribe Report:

On Measuring Completion

Dear Ed,

Report on Session #4

One of the requirements for joining this Tribe Meeting Series in Austin was for each participant to have a meaningful project he would like to complete during the series.

 

During this week’s sessions we reported on progress on each of our individual projects including how to measure completion. After each person gave his verbal report on his project, each other member of the team then give it either a “Pass” or “No Pass”. We went through several cycles of this in the entire group and in sub-groups in order to receive feedback from our fellow tribe members to help us clarify our goals and focus on clear, measurable deliverables.

 

Even though I thought I went in with clear goals and deliverables there was still room for improvement because in the first cycle only half of my colleagues gave me a “Pass”. However, by the last feedback cycle my goals was and deliverables were much clearer and all of my colleagues gave me a “Pass”. Thanks very much for that! For the next session, we have been requested to bring in physical prototypes of our deliverables.

My main “aha” moment of this session was a remark that Ed made about feelings: those feelings we are not willing to experience will become our system. Or, in other words, we cannot escape our feelings because if we try to do so they came back to us through our systems. If we are willing to experience all feelings, then they will not interfere with our system. Wow!

Once again, thank you Ed for the valuable insights and thanks also to my fellow tribe members for their support.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Dealing With Sticking To the System

Dear Support Team,

I am pleased to report that I am now following my system without exception since my last report. It is not easy, but getting easier as I experience my feelings. This is a major accomplishment for me, laying the foundation to achieve my commitment to make my investment management business a success.

 

I realize that a trader who consistently and capriciously breaks his system is no better than a compulsive gambler, doomed to failure and heartache. In reading some of Ayn Rand’s philosophy recently I recognize that such self-destructive behavior is also immoral. I want nothing to do with breaking my system.

Generally, it is a productive month toward my commitment. My personal trading performance is good; I make great strides with programming and have encouraging back testing results; I am set to begin trading one of my investment programs live in a managed account next week. Following my system seems to allow for me to be more productive in other areas, moving toward right livelihood.

Despite these advances, over the last few days I feel especially anxious almost to the point of paralysis. The regulatory requirements of me and associated costs are overwhelming. I am especially concerned about my performance managing this new account, which I plan to use as a track record to raise money. Strong performance managing this account seems essential to achieving my commitment. I am feeling the heat.

Thanks for your support.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Thursday, July 8, 2010


Austin Tribe Report:

Solving Puzzles

 

Dear Ed,


Thanks to each of you for your willingness to share...I have benefitted a great deal as I have observed and been involved in some of the processes.
 

Austin Tribe Update (June 8, 2010)

A Tribe member shares feelings about a drama involving his mother in law and his wife. I notice his feelings of resentment towards his mother in law…but ultimately it is revealed that they are towards his wife also.

 

He gets into the feeling about this circumstance and the tribe does a role play. It is interesting the intentions that are revealed from all the participants as a role play is developed. I notice that during the control centric model there is always a breakdown of receiving or sharing of feelings. I notice in my own life I can choose to disconnect in a relationship if I am unwilling to feel feelings or deal with the feelings that come up.

 

I feel uncomfortable or overwhelmed today regarding a trading decision or lack of decision…I find it difficult to get into the feeling and occupy my time with medicinal activities to avoid facing the feeling. I carry some deep inner shame I am unwilling to feel so I accept the smaller world created by this feeling. In the drama as the tribe member shares / receives feelings with his spouse the drama dissolves like magic. The feeling is the truth inside…is just waiting to be felt and acted on. As Ed says in Tribe….”whatever I am unwilling to feel is running my life”…so true


A second feeling involves an older brother abusing his younger brother. The younger brothers’ feeling surfaces during the hot seat. I notice the emotional pain of feeling disconnected from a close family member…the longing to connect emotionally with “my only brother”. It is difficult at first to see how to utilize the intimacy centric model in a situation where one is physically threatened or abused. I notice during the process as the tribe role plays out the circumstances that there is a moment of NOW in the dialogue where the choice is made to go down the control centric model path or the intimacy centric model path. In a heated drama many times our instincts and knots steer us down predetermined paths…such are rocks. Nevertheless, in the drama it is revealed there is an opportunity to open the door to intimacy in the relationship between brothers.

 

I am amazed how the countenance of the Tribe Member changes as intimacy is adopted in the role play. I observe the softness and tenderness he has for his older brother…the desire to connect only as brothers can. It is interesting that an “aha moment” can be reframing something that has previously been so painful into something very beautiful and meaningful. It appears to me there is tremendously emotional healing in reframing and essentially relearning really what intimacy is.


A third process involves a drama where a Tribe Member has been physically assaulted by his father. He gets into the feeling very dramatically … the feeling of sadness and grief from an ongoing abusive situation. I greatly admire his ability to feel all of the grief and shame from this traumatic event. Ed talks about the grieving process and I feel our fellow Tribe Member makes great strides in getting in touch with these feelings. We role play the scenario and find, to everyone’s amazement, there is the opportunity to reframe the scenario towards intimacy. I notice a shift in his countenance and body posture.
 

An observation … we work on some brain teaser puzzles after the Tribe Meeting. They are interlocking metal or wooden puzzles where there is a solution but it perhaps may take seeing the right angle to release the pieces from their interlocking hold together.

 

I enjoy working on these puzzles and as I solve one and remember how to release the puzzle it becomes easier the next time. I am sure Ed has solved each of those puzzles many times but each time he looks at the situation with a fresh curiosity … just like a child. He usually proceeds to solve each of them quickly. He gets a mental picture of the puzzle quickly in his mind then proceeds to try the most logical solution. If his first observation is inaccurate he begins trying on different outcomes to solve the puzzle. It is interesting that many of the relationship dynamics are much like these simple puzzles. There are pieces related to feelings that are interlocked inside the person that need to be released.

 

I find it interesting that as Ed is managing a process and testing for willingness he is making a mental model of the psychological puzzle as he goes along. Each question / response and test for willingness sheds a little more light on the mental dynamics of the interlocking pieces inside the Tribe Member. Once he has a mental model of this puzzle he goes immediately on working towards the solution. As the Tribe Member becomes willing to feel the feelings and is open to intimacy they become aware of the pieces of the “mental puzzle” or “rock” for themselves…they have an “aha moment.” The process reinforces how the knot or puzzle works in their particular situation and the simple solution becomes obvious.

 

Much of the time the Tribe Member has been engaged trying to solve this puzzle in the same way over and over again…they have no pattern for going down a different road. It is strange that each of us can be so blind to our “puzzle” that the obvious solution eludes us…perhaps for decades. We have no mental framework or relational capacity for doing otherwise…somehow we missed the modeling of a different outcome. It is refreshing to literally see in a Tribe Member that sees an intimacy centric solution for the first time…it is like a light switch comes on. As we role play out the solution to the puzzle the light gets brighter and brighter.

 

Thank you Ed for your willingness to assist each of the Tribe Members in unlocking these puzzles inside and leading us towards greater levels of intimacy.

Thank you for sharing your observations.

Thursday, July 8, 2010


Options Strategy


Hi Ed,

Do you think that it's a good strategy to buy a call and a put option in commodities

and keep these options until they expire ...

In that way, if I ride the trend, 1 option will be worthless, and I will lose only the premium

and the second option will worth a lot more than the 2 premiums that I paid for the call and put options.

Some ways to play for a move are going long straddles, long strangles, short condors and short butterflies.

 

None of these work if the price stays quiet.

 

 

Buying Volatility

 

is like betting on a guy to wake up

before the alarm goes off

 

 

Clip: http://www.flatrock.org.nz/topics/

intellect_and_entertain/assets/man_sleeping.jpg

 

Wednesday, July 7, 2010
 

Wants The Answer


Dear Ed Seykota,


Forgive me for this call you
I have read your Trading Tribe
Some traders would like to ask you the question
I read the book Michael Covel
Richard Dennis breakthrough study of the system 20 days and 60 days break system
I use these two systems in the history of transaction records
Find them quite feasible
I know that Richard Dennis breakthrough system is Richard Donchian theory developed in
And your system is the first theory comes from the Richard Donchian
I know you had to do with the four kinds of system tests
Can you tell me which four kinds of systems and each system corresponds to the number of days
Thank you for your enlighten

FAQ does not recommend specific system parameters.  See Ground Rules.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010


Austin Tribe Report

Different Result with Daughter-in-Law

 

Dear Ed,


From our last Austin Tribe Meeting, I listen to a Tribe member discuss issues with his mother that continue to impact his life. He keeps things inside which leads to being irritable, anxious, frustrated, and feelings of disappointment and disgust. The tribe assists in role playing which allows him to choose different decisions in his childhood experience that allows for a different outcome.

The statement "What you are not willing to feel is what controls (runs) your life" impacts me directly and personally.

After the meeting, I experience the feeling of wanting to control outcomes. I get into a situation with my wife and I am able to deflect blame to her for a poor decision on my part.

 

She confronts me and I describe my feelings and ask her about how she feels. This opens a discussion in front of her daughter and son in law.

 

Her daughter starts to defend my wife. I start to withdraw. I notice what I am feeling, reflect on the past and see 'withdrawal' as a common pattern. I think about how I can use new resources in this situation.

 

Instead of suppressing, I try to communicate my feelings, admit my error and explore my wife's feelings. My wife accepts them. Her daughter apologizes to me for her logical defense of her mom, she accepts my feelings and hugs me.

 

This is a different outcome than past experiences. By not holding back, I am able to express my feelings and receive the feelings of others and move to a better outcome.

I continue to discuss with my wife how 'control' impacts me and my desire to move forward in this area.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

The Father / daughter-In-Law relationship

 

generally inherits many complications

 

that you can resolve

 

with intimacy-centric relating.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clip: http://image28.webshots.com/29/5/85/

62/275158562mhXatZ_fs.jpg

 

Monday, July 5, 2010


Wants a Reaction about Meaning


Hi Ed,

I just read a quote, and wonder if you agree and what you think about it:

The only thing in the entire universe that you have control over is the meaning you give (to an event / thing / person).

Thanks.

I'm not quite sure how you might give, say, a rock meaning - or what a rock with meaning might mean.

 

Perhaps you give the meaning to yourself as a way to look at the rock.

 

 

 

A Meaningless Rock

 

 

 

A Rock With Meaning

 

 

 

Clip: http://blog.oregonlive.com/themombeat/

2009/02/rock_solid_solutions_small.jpg

 

Sunday, July 4, 2010


Sacramento Tribe

Dear Ed,

 

I attach my TT ID.

 

Thank you

Welcome

Sacramento

California!

Sunday, July 4, 2010


A Whys Guy


Dear Ed,

If you think that markets keep changing, why is do you think that is useful to make back-testing?

Thank you very much

FAQ does not address "why" questions.  See ground rules.

Saturday, July 3, 2010


Progress with Anger, Trading

and being more Intimate with his Wife

Hello All,

Thank you for being on my support team.

I get a lot out of doing these reports and appreciate the feedback I receive.

I have a hodgepodge of things to report.

I accomplish several things in Tribe meetings. I work on a knot I have about <being impolite>, particularly about being impolite to people with whom there’s a complex relationship, for example, an in-law. Previously, I have no middle ground resource. I have a resource of “turn the other cheek”, which is what I use 95% of the time or a resource of “pull out the knife”, to cut and brutalize with words, used the other 5% of the time.

 

I now have a new resource of how to handle an insult or being told what to do or being judged. My Tribe chief suggests a resource of noting and playing off of exactly what I feel when such a situation occurs. For example, if I’m feeling insulted by what is said then, “Thank you for insult.”

I do notice temptation and an increase in willingness to “pull out the knife” when I feel someone is treating me unjustly. With Tribe work, I am much, much more willing to experience feelings that can be consequences of “pulling out the knife,” such as <rejection> or <disapproval>.

 

I feel a darkness and a pleasure in this. This feels young and rebellious to me. I have interest in exploring this though I feel like the wiser path is to commit to sharing feelings and work from that perspective.

I continue to notice more evidence of my Snap Shot working. My Snap Shot is “I’m a successful trader.” Evidence of it working is the calm I feel while following my system and being able to enjoy life outside of the market rather than feeling I must slave over the market to do well. It also gives me more patience and perspective and less medicating.

I give thought to my system vs. my System. Little “s” being this is when I buy, this is when I sell, etc. The big “S” being that plus many of the things in my commitment; the deliberate practice, experiencing feelings, tribe, family, and the environment at large. Thinking in terms of the big “S” System seems to result in greater ease of focusing on what’s most important, first things first, and less drama which affords me more energy.

Doing some Tribe type work with my wife, we find a knot in her about <letting others feel let down by her>. It has the classic knot qualities to it … she does not let me feel let down by her and then I feel more let down like I’m not being heard and then it fuels from there. The knot gives her a blockage to harvesting criticism from me … criticism makes her feel she’s let me down. After experiencing lots and lots of anger towards her I notice a feeling of sadness for my wife and compassion … this is a very hard life to go through if you’re unwilling to leverage criticism … this is an AHA! for me as well.

From this experience, I notice I have a knot about being let down by those close to me. I hate the feeling. When it happens I flood with anger. Other feelings like hurt and vulnerability and sadness are blocked out. I hide behind the feeling of anger. This is a painful feeling that I recall in experiences from childhood from a mother that means very well but is emotionally incapable of loving, encouraging, being strong, touching, supporting.

Overall, I feel like I’m experiencing a positive upward spiral. Working into resistance gives me more energy to work into resistance. I am staying on the proactive path.

End of Q reporting: for Q2 ’10 I return 2.5%.

Thank you for your support.

Thank you for sharing your progress.

Saturday, July 3, 2010


Austin tribe report #4:

Race Cars
 

We meet and check in. We then give a report about our projects. Ed asks for us to come up with evidence we will present at the final Tribe meeting of this series to prove we achieve what we said our intention is for this series.

 

We split up into groups and work on this. We then get back together and report what we come up with. I give my idea and Ed asks for that statement plus a histogram showing the size of both profits and losses to show that I am following good trading principles. We then have a checkout for that process and any feelings that come up. I state that I get the feeling of dread and it feels like something else I have to do more like a burden.

 

I take the hotseat with that feeling. Another member volunteers to manage the process who has never done this before. He does a good job and in a short time I get the incident. I am in Boy Scouts and the pinewood car derby is coming up.

 

Although I enjoy building model cars I have not started building my car yet. My dad comes in and starts yelling at me to get it done. I lose interest in doing this now and wait until the last minute to finish the car so I don't have time to weigh it.

 

Since it is a race that uses gravity to propel the car, weight helps the car to go faster. He griped at me all the way to the race about not finishing in time to weigh the car. When we get there I actually win 2nd place and feel proud of my accomplishment until the ride home where dad yelled at me all the way home saying if I had completed earlier and weighed I could have won the race. This took all my joy away.

 

Growing up I felt powerless around my dad. The only resource I had was to blank out, try not to get hit and endure until he stopped yelling and left. My Tribe members suggested two resources to try. When I try them I just don't have the ability to make them work.

 

My Tribe models what the resources look like to help me and I try them again. After a few tries I finally get power with these new tools and feel good about using them. I am surprised how well they actually work. We then do a check out about my process and Ed asks how I feel about the task he asks me to complete. It is completely turned around now and I look forward to completing it. It feels light and I am looking forward to learning new things while completing it.

 

My hot seat is interrupted several times with Ed coaching the process manager so everyone learns how to do this, we stopped to eat dinner and then started again and I stopped the hot seat to instruct the role player what I needed to make it more real for me. Even with all this it turns out to be a very powerful session for me. Thanks Tribe!

 

Before this series my project of trading profitably seemed to exist somewhere off in the distant future without clear next step actions I need to take. Last night I wake up at 4:00am and realize I am working out the specific steps necessary to complete my trading project while I am dreaming.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

 

Fathers and Sons

 

can help each other grow.

 

 

 

Clip: http://forums.steves-digicams

.com/attachments/biweekly-shoot-out

/151526d1269690962-diagonals-pinewood

-derby-scouts-pinewood-20derby-20081-

20s-20diag.jpg

 

Friday, July 2, 2010


Just a Little Bit Longer

Dear Mr. Seykota,

thank you, for your answer!

You might consider back-testing some systems that stay in the market a little longer.

Usually I move my stop loss, under the 3 days low, or above 3 days high, to protect my profits, until the market take me out...

To stay a little longer, I need to use a wider stop loss?

and how many days do you consider a little longer?

Thank you very much for your support

"Stay-a-a-a-ay, just a little bit longer
Please, Please, please, please, please
Tell-a-me you're going to

Now, how your daddy don't mind
And your mommy don't mind
If we have another dance
Yeah, just one more
One more time

Oh, won't you stay
Just a little bit longer
Please let me hear
You say that you will
Say you will."

 - Stay (Just A Little Bit Longer)
by The Chantels

Friday, July 2, 2010


Clinical Trials of TTP

Ed,

On Monday, June 21, 2010 “Clinical Trials for TTP”, you write

“I wonder if you can send comparable metrics for alternative methods such as talk-therapy, pharmacology and getting some straight talk from an authority figure.”

I compare the results of other therapies with a single hot seat:

To my knowledge, there are no single session therapies available; they would be, of course, not in the best interest of therapist who make a living of it and prefer to attend patients for a long period.

In <my country> the health insurance covers 6 to 8 “introductory meetings” to see the possible perspectives of a talk therapy. The real treatment begins after these 8 meetings.

Antidepressants require 2 to 3 weeks before showing effect; they are effective in about 60% of patients.

A straight talk with an authority figure can, in fact, be life-changing. I am not aware of statistical analysis of this procedure.

Our trial documents that TTP is effective, but not how. The effects of TTP can also be related to other factors: placebo effect, expectation, suggestion, and chance. To rule them out we are planning a more complex design, including a control group which receives a single talk or indications, how to get rid of their troubles.

There are other therapeutic approaches which are also associated with dramatic changes in a short time (EMDR, coherence therapy). There are also spiritual (ho´oponopono) and very pragmatic systems (Sedona method) who base on similar principles as TTP does.

 

All these approaches share the concepts of living in the now, accepting reality, the feelings of the others, and the own responsibility. Some of them use forms or equivalents, and mention that there is no “problem”, but a dysfunctional perception of reality.

I keep you informed about the next developments and findings.

Thank you for your report.

Thursday, July 1, 2010


Wants to Extend TSP

Hi Ed,

Thank you for your response to my earlier email. Here is an outline for extending the TSP. I was targeting the section Optimizing a Trend System of the TSP. I constrained the outline to equities and the Simple Exponential Crossover System.

 

There are many combinations to consider, I feel dread creeping in, in the form of an impending combinatorial explosion.

* Optimizing a Simple Exponential Crossover System for Equities

1. Software and Hardware
 

2. Where To Get Symbol Lists
 

3. Data Sources
 

4. Single Instrument (covered in TSP - review use Lake Ratio, validate against existing TSP)
 

5. Bliss Function – (Lake Ratio using a Riemann sum)
 a. Comparison of Results – Lake Ratio and Max Draw Down Bliss Functions
 

6. Issues With Volatility Based Position Sizing and Multiple Equities
 

7.How Much Sampling?
a. Monte Carlo
b. Step Wise Sampling
 

8. A Maintaining a Baseline
 

9. Working With Large Data Sets
a. Dealing with anomalies
 

10. Multiple Instrument - One Set Fits All
a. Measurement – Logging Parameters
b. Parameters -- One Set Fits All
c. Instrument Inclusion and Exclusion
d. Optimizing Position Size - One Fits All
e. Number of Instruments (Large vs Small Portfolios)
f. Greediness Of The Kelly Criterion
g. System Wide Bet Fraction
 

11. Multiple Instrument - Unique Parameters
a. Measurement – Logging Parameters
b. Each Instrument Has Its Own Parameter Pair
c. Instrument Inclusion and Exclusion
d. Optimizing Position Size
e. Number of Instruments (Large vs Small Portfolios)
f. System Wide Bet Fraction One For All Instruments
g. Frequency Of Parameter Updates
 

12. Sample Optimization Times (hours running)
13. Comparison of Methods Examined

You might consider taking your feelings about <dread> to Tribe.

Thursday, July 1, 2010


Austin Tribe Report


Hello Ed,

Thanks for another great tribe meeting in Austin, TX. One of the members of the Tribe shared his process by indicating he wanted to make more money from his business and have more time to devote to trading. It was suggested that he increase the prices he charged for his work at his automotive repair business by 20%.

 

He didn't believe that he could make this increase stick because he didn't feel his prices would be competitive and that customers would turn away. However, his service is very good and his customers tell him he under-prices his product.

 

Then he goes through an exercise in which each tribesman asks him what it would cost for a particular service and he would quote the new higher price. For example, what would it cost to replace a fuel pump in a Cadillac Escalade and he would reply, in this instance, $880.00. He repeated this exercise for different services with each Tribe member. Every member accepted the new prices and he felt more confident about increasing his prices. This process was meaningful to me because it has to do with how we value ourselves and how that translates into pricing our services in the marketplace.

The next Tribesman to occupy the hot seat said he had a fear of taking risks in his investments like he used to. He indicated something was holding him back. He related this back to a story in his youth when he was playing in the dirt with his toy army men in the family garden. His father came up and scolded him for playing in the garden.

 

I role played as his father but this time he used the intimacy-centric model to communicate with his father. When his father began scolding him, he related that he was trying to be like him since he was in the military. This relating of feelings was received and brought more understanding and compassion by the father. This process was a great example of how our fears can be mitigated by using the intimacy-centric model to hopefully bring a better understanding in what can be tense situations. This can also help bring more confidence in handling interpersonal and investment related situations.

Thanks again see you at the next Tribe meeting.

Thank you for sharing your observations.

Thursday, July 1, 2010


Wants Patterns


Dear Ed,

What are the chart patterns that you look for?

Thank you very much

Trending up and trending down.

Thursday, July 1, 2010


Austin Tribe Report

From Control to Intimacy


Dear Ed,

I experience many changes in my relationships with my parents, my wife, and my son, and my in-laws. My father and my mother come to visit for a play date with my son. It’s the first time in over a year that my father comes to visit. After a few hours, play time ends and my son and wife leave the house. My dad and mom stay for another three hours and just talk. We talk about my wife’s and mine parenting philosophy and techniques. We talk about property rights and our son’s toys. There are a couple of times that I see my dad’s eyes water. I’m perfectly comfortable being around him now. I just accept him. He and my mother start leaving and I walk them to their car. My dad stops on the sidewalk and hugs me and tells me that he loves me. I tell him that I love him. They both leave. We repeat the process again this week.

My wife tells me that this is the most happy and comfortable she has ever been in our relationship. We send and receive each other every night.

Thank you for hosting the Austin tribe.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

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