July 15 - 31, 2010
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(Quotes from Ed in Red)
I do not
report in June. Below are my June & July reports.
1. My fund starts trading live;
2. I make daily calls to potential clients, friends; and
3. I discuss various opportunities with funds and investment firms about
collaborating on launching a fund, seeding etc.
1. My wife and I receive the greatest gift of all: a healthy baby boy,
I feel tremendous joy and excitement about the birth of my son. I look
forward learning from and developing a great relationship with my son,
despite of any challenges.
2. I enter talks with firm about launching a fund and also partnering to
establish an investment / wealth management firm.
These discussions give me ample opportunity to see my key issue
The other side tries to push me around and offers me a terrible deal. I
turn the offer down. The other side derails and resorts to name calling
and intimidation tactics as they are not use to me being like
this. They know the old me - easy to push around. I do not engage or
enroll into their game. I notice myself receiving and also establishing
the boundaries. I feel happy about the outcome and holding my ground.
I recall Ed's quote "the feelings you are
unwilling to feel run your life". I see how my unwillingness to
feel anger and establish boundaries invites angry bullies into my life.
I feel that working on feeling my anger and developing this skill is
integral and a direct link to the achievement of my right livelihood.
I feel that I am in the process of disengaging with some old toxic
relationships and I am ready to move on.
I am grateful to Ed and my wife for their unconditional support
throughout this process.
My intention going forward is to report:
1. on my progress with my fund i.e. raising money, business developments;
2. on my progress with my key issue on anger and establishing
Thank you for being on my support team.
Thank you for sharing your process.
I am dismissed from the Tribe, my agreement was to provide feedback for
the FAQ after each meeting. Here is my submission for July 29, 2010:
I attend the Austin Tribe meeting. We start with a check-in, then a
quick update on our progress regarding hot seat work and our projects.
We bring the faux evidence of project success as agreed at the previous
tribe meeting. Each member briefly presents their evidence, and the the
other members vote in a pass / no-pass manner to indicate if the evidence
presented fairly represents successful completion of the self-assigned
It is my turn for a hot seat. After a brief period of forms, my Process
Manager (PM) asks if I am willing to work. I say yes, but he is unsure.
He has the tribe vote.
Many vote "no pass". my PM asks me to turn up the
heat on the forms. I do so. The tribe votes again and the results are
mixed. I am given one last chance to turn up the heat on the forms. I
try harder, and the Tribe votes "pass". I recall a scenario of being
passed over by the pastor, for a special church project, in favor of
another young man.
The setting is when I am about 19-20 years old. My
current resource is to remain silent, sort of a "duck and cover" ,
accepting rejection. We role play with that resource. We discuss the
resource of expressing my feelings. Several tribe members role play this
resource on my behalf, as I need an example. I then try implementing the
resource. It takes a few tries to get a good reaction from the role
playing pastor. And then we try the resource of asking about the
pastor's feelings. Again, other members role play this to provide an
example. I role play this, and again it takes several attempts to get a
good outcome. Still, my approach is a bit rough, and Ed suggests to enter into the conversation more smoothly. After one Tribe
member points out that I don't seem to be feeling the feelings during
the role play, others join in and support that idea.
Ed has a long
discussion with me, and the conclusion is that I don't feel my feelings
to much degree at all. And this tribe is about rather high level
feelings work, of which I am not capable. The Tribe is not the right
setting for the kind of work I need, should I wish to pursue it. I am
dismissed from the Tribe. I leave.
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider following up with
how you feel about it.
I have now decided that I will focus more to sell my best trading idea
than to backtest new ideas. I will give it 50% dedication each at least.
I have made a deal with one of the sales persons in my company to keep
me on track to deliver a portfolio recommendation for a new fund. We
will meet regularly and I can present my developments and she can help
me focus of what is needed for selling. It feels like the right step.
Yesterday me and my wife came home late from the cinema. As we went to
bed she started to talk about things she found hard. I was focusing more
on what men usually focus on when they go to bed (except sleeping). Our
child was away so it was a perfect time to catch up some loving ...
Suddenly I realized I was a very bad receiver and felt all she said was
reasons for not making love. I was silent as I was disappointed.
Suddenly I realize we were almost on the opposite side as when we
started communicating our feelings. I was a bad receiver while my wife
was telling her feelings. As I realized that, I gradually tried to be
there for her and it ended up with good communication.
By the way, no - we did not make love. This is not an American movie ...
Thanks for listening!
Thank you for sharing your process.
When You Receive Your Mate
your mate instinctively develops a desire
to receive you.
about to graduate this upcoming December from [Name] University ... with a major in Finance. I took a technical analysis
course last year (first of its kind) and was immediately hooked by the
approach it takes to the markets and its understanding of how the
Since then I've spent days and nights researching and trying to learn
and wanted to ask for some free ... yes free advice on your part. I'm not
looking for a consultation or for any free trading advice, but more to
do with advice in general since I want to get into day trading.
I've read Market Wizards I so don't pull any quotes from there ;). I'm
kidding, but I wanted your honest opinion as to what advice you could
give me, in terms of internships or prop firms and how to go about
starting my career as a speculator.
Thank you and I hope to hear from you soon.
Hmmm... I wonder what a dis-honest
See ground-rules, above about advice
- and about terms for consulting.
July 28, 2010
7-1-2010 – Tribe Meeting Follow-up
dealing with Irritation
During this meeting there were a number of key lessons I took away.
1) The feelings you won’t (or don’t like to) feel drive your life.
Paradoxically our Fred drives us into situations where we will have the
opportunity to experience those feelings and will keep driving us there
until we experience them.
3) Many people
repeatedly shut down and medicate in an effort to avoid that feeling and
so set up a cycle to repeat similar circumstances again and again.
Unwillingness to experience feelings will ultimately limit your ability
to succeed in that and many other areas of life.
5) On the
other hand the mind has a radiator. When you get the intention to
succeed you will radiate that intention to others.
During this meeting we also go through an interesting and powerful
exercise regarding our projects. During this exercise we explain what
evidence we will bring to the Tribe to show that we have succeeded in
accomplishing our goal. The Tribe listens to the proposed evidence and
each member gives a yes or no answer as to whether or not that meets the
criteria for proving we have accomplished our goal. This exercise helps
me clarify both the goal and the milestones to get there. It also helps
me find a better way to be accountable to the tribe.
Ed gives us
some homework. He tells us to make up the documentation we will need to
prove that we have succeeded. While the documents are not real they are
to look as real as possible and accurately reflect what we expect to
accomplish. This gives me a much more concrete vision of the end result.
It makes the goal and project concrete and I feel more motivated to push
hard to accomplish my goal.
meeting I take the hot seat. I feel irritated lately and frustrated with
things around. The group encourages me to exercise some forms and with
their help I really get into the rolling of the eyes and the clinching
of the fists and the tapping of my foot. At first I am frustrated and
upset but eventually that starts to melt away.
Ed asks if I am having
fun or liking the form and I crack a smile and admit that yes I am. I am
having fun now with it. We role play a scenario with my mom in high
school that use to frustrate me and irritate me. The tribe suggests some
resources that I can use. I try them and like them and commit to using
In the days
and weeks following, I have been amazed at how often I have started to
medicate my feelings of irritation, but then stop and experience them
In many cases I even share those feelings with others. I
realize that one of the positive intentions of irritation is to show me
that things are not going according to plan or that someone else is
trying to deviate from expectations. Irritation serves as a warning
alarm that something is off and needs to be righted. Failure to
experience that feeling of irritation causes things (or people) to get
further off track and cause even more irritation.
I realize I
have set up a number of dramas in my life that are intended to provide
me with frustration and irritation. I intend to unwind these situations.
I also intend to start experiencing my irritation and acting to correct
the situation that is causing it and sharing this feeling with others. I
experience good results thus far and commit to continuing to apply the
resources I learned in Tribe.
Thank you Ed
for your wisdom and being a great process manager and tribe member.
Thank you to all the tribe members whose support and acknowledgement
made it possible to untie this k-not.
Thank you for sharing your insights
and your process.
July 28, 2010
Hi Ed ,
I know you generally schedule workshops in response to demand , but is
there any waiting line or a way to be aware of the dates!!!!?
Thank you for your inquiry.
I am looking into presenting a
Workshop in Austin, later this year.
First off, let me welcome to Austin. I hope you enjoy living here as
much as I have over the last 20 years. I am writing you in hopes that
you may be able to provide me with some career advice.
To give you some background, I was invited to visit a friend who worked
in a SOES [small order execution system] shop in the early 90's. Upon entering the office, I was taken
back by the incredible energy in air. It looked exciting and fun. I was
in my early twenties and I thought to myself, "This is what I want to be
when I grow up!" I quickly began to search for ways to become involved
in the world of trading. First I became a stockbroker, thinking this
would be my opportunity to learn about the markets and trading. Turns
out out I was very wrong. Basically, they wanted me to learn how to be a
salesman. Didn't matter what I was selling as long as I generated
commissions. I hated every minute of it and eventually quit.
Later, I became a broker for SOES shop here in Austin. I actually really
did enjoy the job. I learned a great deal from the traders there. It was
an exciting job. After a years, I borrowed some money and decided to
become a trader in the firm. I quickly discovered that trading looks a
lot easier than actually is. I learn a great deal about the
psychological of trading ... a component I had never really considered. I
read book after book, trying to find a way to get "in the zone."
However, after several years, it began to be clear to me that I simply
wasn't good enough to be a great day trader. In addition, I was
struggling with alcoholism and knew I would not be able to stay sober in
that environment. I closed my account and became a floral delivery
driver for almost a year.
I hurt very badly to give up on it. I loved trading more than anything.
I found it to be the ultimate challenge ... testing instinct,
intelligence, and psychological make up.
After a year, I started working as a market analysis for [firm]. Essentially, I wrote long term market commentary for their
website ... In my spare time, I conducted research on
various intraday trading strategies to be included in their signal
generating software. Again, I truly enjoyed the job. I learned about
trading futures and the advantages of trading future over equities.
My next revelation was seeing you give a talk at the Austin association
of financial trading. It suddenly dawn on me that I have been doing
everything wrong. I realized that trend trading in longer time frames
was a far easier and a more efficient way to trade. I felt extremely
foolish for wasting all those years intraday trading.
I now consider
intraday trading to be a sickness and call myself a "recovering day
Unfortunately, tragedy hit my life. My wife informed me that she fell in
love with another man and wanted a divorce. Basically, she told me I was
never going to make any money and the new guy was rich. I was crushed.
In a panic, I quite my job ... sure I could find some way to
make money in the trading world. Such has not been the case.
In the past few years, I have been offered positions with a few prop
firms. However, they want day traders and refuse to be involved in that
insanity again. I have sent resumes to a ton CTA's but have been
rejected because of my 15 years as a day trader. I have applied for
other jobs outside of trading, but have been rejected because of day
trading past as well. So I sit here with many lessons learned and years
of experience and no where to apply these skills.
I have essentially made three major mistakes in my career:
1) I never had a mentor. This is not from a lack of trying. I courted
dozens of successful trader over the past 15 years. Simply put, they
would say "no" because they didn't want to share their "secrets" or they
would agree if I paid them an enormous fee.
2) I wasted too many years trying to trade equities. Commodities, forex,
and futures are far better trenders.
3) I wasted years trying to be an intraday trader instead of a long term
This email may sound like I am a mess. I can assure that I am an
accomplished person in most areas in my life. I have been sober for 10
years. I graduated cum laude form [Name] University with a degree in
history and political science. I am an avid runner. I am the proud
father of 4 month baby girl ... But trading has been the one
area in my life where I was never given a break.
I would greatly appreciate it if you had any insights. I respect your
opinion over all others. I live in Austin. If you have the time and feel
so inclined, I would happily buy you a cup of coffee (or even a steak)
for the opportunity to talk with you in person.
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider taking your
feelings about <right livelihood> and <deserving a break> to Tribe
Gambling, Day-Trading and Alcoholism
all help cover up feelings
Women Who Say
They are Leaving for Money
are usually leaving for something else
or, perhaps, another alcoholic
I have a question , about selling options.
Let say that a commodity is trading at 520
If I sell an out of the money call option on a this commodity at 550
(that expire in less than 40 days)
To protect myself from unlimited loss I would place a protective buy
stop at 550 on the actual Futures Contract.
In that way:
1) if before expiration, never reach 550, I win the premium
2) if the price of this commodity go above 550, I have this commodity
(thought the purchase of the actual Futures Contract) so what I loss in
the call (that I sold) I win in the Future Contract and still keep the
3) the only risk that I see now, is that the price of this commodity go
above 550 and I buy at 550 the Futures Contract, and then the price of
this commodity go below 550 but I can sell this Futures Contract, with a
I'm missing something?
Thank you very much for your website and your help.
I wonder at what price you intend to
place your protective stop for the 550 buy order - and how many times
you plan to work this buy / sell combination.
You might consider running some
back-tests on your strategy.
Thanks for your response to my previous question on MEANING (FAQ,
7/5/2010, Wants a Reaction about Meaning).
It is also interesting that you use rocks in your response. I've seen
many cases where the Hot Seat from a Rock Process takes a whole new
different MEANING to what the rock in his hand represents. Despite
appearing absolutely no different from any ordinary rock from everyone
else, it is a special rock to him because it brings up the emotional
content that he squeezes into it.
So if I slightly modify the quote, I wonder if you'd agree to it:
"The only thing in the universe that you can have control over is the
meaning you give to yourself as a way to look at (a certain event /
thing / person). "
You might consider taking your
feelings about <wanting agreement> to Tribe.
Some People Play for Agreement
others, for intimacy.
The below might interest you :
A first step towards gold confiscation?
Starting Jan. 1, 2012, Form 1099s will become a means of reporting to
the Internal Revenue Service the purchases of all goods and services by
small businesses and self-employed people that exceed $600 during a
metals such as coins and bullion fall into this category.
As Patrick Heller, owner of Liberty Coin Service notes:
Current 1099 law exempts sending of 1099 Forms to most corporations, but
the new law requires
accumulating and reporting payments to corporations as well. Further,
current law is largely limited to the reporting of payments for
services, not goods. The new law expands coverage to all goods and
What this means for the millions of businesses in the US is that they
will have to obtain confidential tax information from almost anyone who
provides a good or service, even if the first transaction in a calendar
year is under $600, in order to avoid paying a penalty if a 1099 Form is
eventually required. Once this information is obtained,
each of the businesses must follow the legal requirements for protecting
this confidential information in order to avoid a penalty for violating
This provision, intended to mine what the IRS deems as a vast reservoir
of uncollected income tax, was tacked on President Obama's health care legislation. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, this tax code
tweak is expected to raise $17 billion over the next 10 years.
Coin dealers are apoplectic. Heller, who deals with around 1,000
customers every week, estimates that he will be filling out between
10,000 and 20,000 tax forms per year when the new law takes effect. As
he told ABC News: “I'll have to hire two fulltime people just to track
all this stuff, which cuts into my profitability.”
But the issue is bigger than coin dealers' looming paper burden. Taxing
the gold is one thing, knowing who owns the gold is something else. Since the transactions will require that a social security or federal,
employer id number be logged at the time of purchase or sale, this new legislation gives the government the capability to track every single
previous metals purchase (over $600) in the country.
The door is now opening. As we have warned for years, desperate
governments can and will do
As The Market Oracle reminds us:
When the US government ran into money problems in the 1930s, Franklin
Roosevelt confiscated all gold held in the hands of the public, and
those who refused to give up their gold were either fined or imprisoned.
Incidentally, the communists in Russia and Eastern Europe did the same
thing throughout the 20th century, but those penalties went a bit
further than just imprisonment. With a U.S. dollar currency crisis and a
U.S. federal government debt crisis looming, many precious metals
investors are concerned that similar government action may be instituted
in the future. Though it has been argued by many that confiscation in
the U.S. would not be necessary or feasible, the 1099 legislation
certainly makes it easier to identify who has the gold.
Of course, those who purchase prior to January 1, 2012 will be ― off the
books, until that time when
they attempt to sell their gold to a registered dealer who will be
required to log the transaction.
There’s a reason economist Marc Faber advised clients that they should
hold their gold outside of the US.
Historically, when the economic or political s--- hits the fan,
governments have always moved to seize
precious metals from the citizenry. The Nazis did it in World War II.
The U.S. did it in the 1930s. The Bolsheviks did it in 1917. Rome did it
by removing 90% of the silver from their coinage. It is conceivable
that, because of global economic problems, governments . . . may once
again make a move to ― repatriate the gold belonging to their citizens.
Even if this is avoided, the tracking capabilities that have been
provided for in the Obama health care legislation now give the
government the ability to know exactly who buys how much gold, as well
as an easy tracking mechanism for taxing the transaction. Rather than
confiscating your gold, they may simply tax your profits at 95% at the
point of sale, virtually wiping out the very reasons for why an investor
precious metals to begin with.
Thank you for the clip. I
wonder if you know of a way to "confiscate" sugar, wheat and crude oil.
Dear Chief Ed,
Greetings from [Country]
Happy Birthday 2 weeks in advance !!
would enjoy this...
How all Pilots should talk (movie)
Thank you for the clip.
From Control to Intimacy:
I feel like I make progress on my commitment this month. Shortly after
my last update, my girlfriend tells me that she is not happy with our
relationship. She even says that it may be best if we break up.
It does not
bother me when she says this, I can feel that she does not really mean
what she says. We continue to talk and I make sure to express my
feelings and to receive hers.
is OK with everything and we go back to normal in our relationship. I do
a much better job this month of having feelings-level conversations and
notice that this is more effective.
For the rest of the month we enjoy our time together and have a lot of
fun. I feel like our relationship is on the right track. She meets my
parents and it goes well. Recently she has a difficult situation with
her roommate and she feels that I support her well during this time.
I notice that my support team is a great resource for me. The
reflections, feedback, and perspectives are very useful, particularly in
identifying the feelings that I am not willing to feel.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Sometimes This Form Means
"I want you to get how I feel"
Trend Following and ETF's
If it isn’t too much to ask, I would like to get your opinion on my
investing methodology. I am a trend trader who uses end-of-day data and
has typical holding periods of around 20 days.
At first I
focused my attention on the Nasdaq 100 by using QLD for a leveraged long
position and PSQ for a short position. Lately I have been applying my
technique to other ETF classes in an attempt to reduce the equity curve
volatility. Given that some ETF’s are relatively new, I can’t produce a
10-year backtest for example.
However, I can
find ETF’s for which my algorithm works well and then select ETF’s with
The table below provides the ETF’s I am using and the percentages
allocated to each.
Here is the
My model is
based on using leverage at a 2:1 ratio when a long signal is generated.
For me, a decent return with a low drawdown is important (i.e. a high
Calmar Ratio) and the percentages assigned to each ETF reflect this.
Are there other asset classes for which liquid ETF’s exist that I should
If this type of request for an opinion is something that you don’t
appreciate then I apologize.
FAQ does not give specific trading
advice. See Ground Rules, above.
The Calmar ratio is basically the
system MAR for a 36-month look back period. In effect, it
"forgives" drawdowns occurring prior to three years ago.
You might consider taking your
feelings about <what to trade> to Tribe.
Thank you for your generosity in sharing your knowledge.
I understand you are extremely busy with your commitments and your new
If possible please could you help me with some queries.
Your formula for exponential lag.
ELt = EL(t-1) +dt*[P - EL(t-1)]/TC
dt = delta time since last computation.
Would the value of dt be 0.5 for twice a day computation?
What would the value of dt be for continuous computation?
Your risk paper contains a derivation of the optimum bet fraction, for
the coin toss example, using calculus.
S = (1+b*P)*(1-b)*S0
Would it be possible to provide the formula for a coin with say 70%
I know that the expected value of something is the sum of all
probabilities of all the possible outcomes:
i.e. Expected Value = Probability of Win( Win Amount) + [1 - Probability
of Win]( losing amount)
I start with this and try to work towards your formula.
I cannot seem to arrive at your formula despite my best efforts.
ie. Expectancy S = 0.5(S0+b*P*S0) + 0.5(S0-b*S0)
This does not produce the same results as your one and is likely wrong.
My intention is to cement my understanding by being able to use your
example with different probabilities and perhaps replicate your
Relationship graphs for Luck, Payoff and Optimal Bet fractions.
To do this, I would need to see what happens to the bet fraction using a
"Lucky" coin at various luck and payoff values.
I try to achieve this using expected values:
I cannot manipulate this formula into your calculus example one and it's
really bothering me.
Alternatively would you consider publishing the data and calculations
for the graphs?
Please forgive my ignorance.
What is a benefit/positive intention, of a feeling of sadness, when
You define the “Uncle” point as the amount of drawdown that provokes a
loss of confidence in either the investors or the fund management.
How you come to associate a word with positive connotations, usually
associated with a close family relative, with this unfortunate
Thank you for your help.
Thank you for your questions.
1. The formula is not specific to
"days." Depending on the sampling rate of your data set, dt might
refer to nanoseconds or millennia. For absolutely continuous
computation, use dt = 0. Of course this "moment of now" approach
not translate to the discrete simulation model. For practical purposes,
you can get a fairly close approximation to dt = 0 by using dt < TC/5
where TC is the length of the shortest time constant in your system.
You can test this by comparing the results from dt = TC/5 with those
from dt = TC/50.
2. Expectancy Theory is a behavioral
theory by Victor Vroom of Yale School of Management; he claims employee
motivation increases with these employee beliefs:
1. more effort produces better
2. better perform leads to rewards.
3. the employee likes the rewards.
Expectancy of a trading system is a
relatively new concept; it is the mean of all the R-multiples in a
series of trades, where R-multiples are the profit/entry_risk ratios for
the individual trades.
I hold that the term "expectancy"
conjures up notions of the future and of predictability, both of which
seem somewhat counter-productive to sticking to trend-following systems.
I have no mention or use of
expectancy in my paper.
I notice many traders experience and
express confusion about the expectancy concept. I gather it is
mostly useful as a traffic-building gimmick for its author.
3. You might consider taking your
feelings about <sadness> and <arguments> to Tribe.
Sadness - Like All Feelings
has a positive intention.
4. You might consider taking your
feelings about <your uncle> to Tribe.
On Process Management
Austin Tribe meeting #4 is, as always, incredibly enlightening. Each
Tribe member has a project, a goal that must be completed by September
23rd. Each Tribe member talks about how he is going to prove the
completion of the project. After each Tribe member says how he is going
to prove completion, every other member says "Pass" or "No Pass." After
a lot of "No Pass," we break into 3 groups of 3, and discuss how to
solidify, simplify, and make more concrete our proof. We then get back
into one circle and go around the room again, with each member saying
again how he is going to prove completion. I feel stressed and pushed. I
also feel, "This is exactly what I need!" I think for each member, there
is increased clarity and more of a straight line between us and our
I also attempt a turn as the Process Manager, for another member who is
on the Hot Seat. I feel awkward and stressed and concerned that I am
screwing up my fellow tribe member's Hot Seat experience because of my
stumbling and inexperienced efforts to run the process.
I also feel
tremendous support from the entire room. I can feel that they encourage
me and accept me. The tribe's assistance and acceptance allows me to
easily face these feelings, turn into them, and get through the process.
Thank you Ed
and thank you to everybody for allowing me to be a Process Manager!
Thank you for sharing your process
and for your insights on operating in a supportive environment.
Dealing with Withdrawal
After my latest reading of FAQ, I decide to do some self exploration. I
think about the phrase "what I am not willing to experience is what runs
my life." I get out a piece of paper and write down "what runs my life
is withdrawal." I notice that I display recurring behavior patterns that
associate with withdrawal in my mind.
I next write down examples of specific situations. The situations
1. when my 2 and 4 year old boys get too out of hand I withdraw
2. when I am
around many people I do not know I have a tendency to hang back and not
3. when I
start a project before long I look for the easiest and quickest way to
finish just to get it complete
4. I have much
focus for a particular activity for a short period and then search out
something else (I get a guitar. Then I decide to start working out. Then
I decide to learn a foreign language). I move from one to the next
without completion of any.
5. I do not
complain much to people other than my wife. I notice I pipe down and
keep my mouth shut in many situations. I realize my father does the
6. I do not
express many opinions to people. Someone recently asks if I want to go
to a movie with them. They offer about 6 different showtimes and ask for
my preference adding "just don't tell me that it doesn't matter to you."
I next write down the statement "what am I unwilling to experience?"
I feel many emotions as I write down
5. lack of control
I add sadness, happiness and attachment to the list. When I write
happiness it about crushes me. I recall being younger and basically
forcing myself into one of two moods (anger or just ok). I have four
relationships with females in my life. All of those relationships last
multiple years. The current relationship is with my wife. I notice that
I aim to please in those relationships. In fact, I do things that I
regret just to try any make them happy.
I want to change. I am willing to change.
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider taking your
feelings about <withdrawal> to your Tribe.
is typically a way to avoid feelings.
Back to the future