from Ed in Red)
|Sat, 19 Jul 2003
Ed you mentioned the October 3-day workshop you are planning. A quick few
questions if I may?
1) Will the workshop be covering TTP (Psychological Fred and CM issues),
trading techniques (mechanics/strategies) or some combination of the two?
2) Does the regular attendance requirement still hold for any attendee for
this particular workshop? Being from Boston, it would be nice if I knew what
your benchmark is for “regular attendance” for the TTP meetings.
3) What kind of numbers do you typically get for both workshops and regular
TTP gatherings? Are you dealing with an auditorium of participants or is it
Thank you once again.
Workshop ... above
|Sat, 19 Jul 2003
"One way to dissolve impatience is to allow,
enjoy and celebrate the feelings of impatience. This converts the feeling
from a drama engine to a drama avoider."
Yes! My feelings are natural and, as always, have a
positive intention. Fred just wants to make sure that I match my skills with
my opportunities for action. Fred knows that matching skills with
opportunities for action helps to create order in the consciousness.
Experiencing this feels good, and helps to alleviate frustration.
Fred helps me be like the Lion.
The lion, when he runs after a pack of gazelles, can only catch them one at
Fri, 18 Jul 2003
Thank you for the method for resolving dichotomies you taught at the tribe
expresses himself to me visually, so this is especially helpful. These are
things I have not figured out after 9 years of trading, and probably
wouldn't ever on my own.
can identify the feeling of a dichotomy by investing your hands with the
polar feelings and then noticing what appears between them when you bring
Fri, 18 Jul 2003
I just read an e-mail sent to you on Wednesday July 16th titled
I have to tell you that those are the kind of results I would like with
I would either like to trade with a hedge fund or make enough myself to live
off of trading/investing.
I also have to say that it is very scary for me to write this to you. It is
one thing trading my own funds but to risk other peoples money ... very
scary to me ... If it means being a better trader/investor I am ready.
I am in so much of a comfort zone ... xx years old with a low paying job a
small nice house ... etc ... I don't know why but now I feel I have to move
on. I am becoming uncomfortable ... like I am not contributing to the
World enough anymore.
Since I now understand some good risk management due to your "Risk
Management" section I feel more comfortable if trade other peoples
money. It has given me a calmness just by reducing my own trading risk.
Do you have any more suggestions for me. You have been so helpful these last
few months. I will attend your seminar ... a personal coaching TTP etc.
Whatever it takes! I trust your judgment because of your trading ability. I
feel I am just at the tip of the iceberg when it comes to my potential.
It has been 17 years of investing trading for me and I have only been able
to communicate with 2 great traders/investors William O'Neil for a brief
three sentences at a seminar and you through these e-mails. I have wanted
a mentor for all these years and have used books. I don't feel compulsive or
obsessed to learn. I feel like I was always meant to be a trader/investor. I
just like it very much and I like to learn.
I hope this e-mail clears my intentions to you. If you are willing to help
me I am ready to go to the next level. I will be waiting for your response
tends to lead to right livelihood. For some it means a career as a
discover they do not wish to trade ... and in the process, learn how to
select and maintain a relationship with a good trader.
provides a way for members of an intentional community to coach each other.
Coach is One Kind of Vehicle
get you to your goal.
Fri, 18 Jul 2003
I have only the ever evolving moment of now and I can
make choices about what to do. (FAQ Post Date: Fri, 30 May 2003,
Conceptually I find it easy to understand and I do value its importance, but
I find it difficult to stay in NOW state and experience ever evolving
moment. Can you please elaborate it how can we stay in present moment with
ever evolving moment to make better choices in life?
Thanks for all the insights and TTP and I am looking forward to see you in
are in the now state, right now and forever, whether you realize it or not.
you think you are not a now person, then perhaps you think you are a past
person, so let's see you change the past ...
if you think you are actually a future person, how about you tell me
something I can confirm in tomorrow's newspaper.
bet you are really a now kind of guy ... including all the thoughts about
the past and future you have right now.
... it's still now.
Fri, 18 Jul 2003
Quick on the
"Your story is consistent with a pattern of
jumping right into things. You might examine your feelings of wanting quick
results. One aspect of TTP is pacing others at their speed ... your friend
might like a little time to warm up ..."
You are correct. It is evident that I was acting out a long standing drama
of failing to have patience, both with my self and with others.
I have experienced my feelings about this drama before. However, it appears
that I expected it to disintegrate too quickly. hah.
Overexcitement that leads to being too quick on the draw can have disastrous
results in the town square at high noon, in the markets and with the Pointer
This drama could become a costly one. Better to have the patience to let the
process work itself out as opposed to expecting aha's to equate to immediate
way to dissolve impatience is to allow, enjoy and celebrate the feelings of
converts the feeling from an drama engine to a drama avoider.
Rush Less ...
the feelings of rush more.
|Fri, 18 Jul 2003
So, I've got this system, see. And I'm following the trend, see. But today,
I start getting frustrated, then the burning in my gut comes along. Now,
I tells it "Ok, Fred, let me know what you're doing." I starts
trying to describe it, shape it ya know. Then, I gets stuck. Its a like a
ball, see. and it's in the gut, ya know. Right in the entrails, with fuzzy
Then, I get out of the position early, see. Cuz the feeling starts up my
throat. Like a worm, not crawly but slow. Then it hits my mouth, and that
goes dry, and I'm starting to breathe fast, see. So I'm not thinking clear,
I'm scared. So's I'm flat that contract right after my signal ...
(a bit of humor, cuz I felt like Bugsy, or Al Capone at that moment)
CM-Bugsy tries to tell Fred to talk, Fred may clam up.
more likely, Fred is getting you to act like Bugsy to engineer some or
typical of the syndrome, you are in a Catch-22 situation.
get Fred to come out, you might treat Fred like Bugsy treats his girl.
have to use a little charm
get Blousey Brown in the mood.
Thu, 17 Jul 2003
What am I missing????
In figure 3 you show a series which purports to lay out in tabular form the
"expected value" of 25% bets in the coin toss example.
Your illustration of the "Kelly formula" shows your 25% conclusion
to be "true".
In Mathematics of Gambling by Thorp, the Kelly formula is held out as
p-(1-p) where p is your historical performance greater than 0.5. My own
seems to average about 0.55. (7 wins, 3 losses per 10 trades, stopped losses
= +/- 50- 75 % wins) I am not certain of the final 0.55, it having been some
time since I crunched the numbers. The system is making steady gains.
He states 4% of total cash pool = optimum risk. This he states "is
known in investment circles as the "optimal geometric growth
portfolio" or OGGP"
This is from pages 126-127 of above book.
I have found by much (sometimes painful) experience that this 4% number
Please tell me if I am missing something key, or am I just brain-dead and
have missed the entire point of your excerpt and the tables?
Are you stating that you should never place a dollar value trade of more
than 25% of your total account, counting each bundle as theoretical 100%
risk per ( in reality the risk of 100% loss using stops is usually quite
small), or are you saying that 25% of entire portfolio value is your optimum
loss risk value per trade? The former seems a bit too conservative, the
latter a bit crazy. Or, are you saying something entirely different that I
am just too thick to get?
a bit baffled,
is likely the best source for clarifying the meaning of his book.
the 25% solution on the FAQ Risk Management page:
coin-toss example intends to illuminate some of the elements of risk, and
specifically applies to a coin that pays 2:1 with a 50% chance of either
heads or tails, in which an equal number of heads and tails appears.
does not consider the case in which the numbers of heads and tails are
unequal or in which the heads and tails bunch up to create winning and
does not suggest any particular risk parameters for trading the markets.
sure to find out which side is heads before you bet.
Thu, 17 Jul 2003
What's a man without a tribe to do...
So, a -----y day in the markets.
Whipsaws, missed trades, indecision.
Dry mouth, acid in my gut, and now at the end of the day frustration.
When I explore my feelings, I get to that "blankness" quite
quickly. So, I probe. Writing this helps a bit, quite a bit, actually.
(In fact, after my last mail I did notice that I wasn't as reactionary to my
wife's emotions. I'm better able to listen and give her real communication.)
It is the process I'm wondering about. (I'm very familiar with
matching/mirroring (pacing, I believe NLP uses)) How does one deal with,
and experience, the emotion. (my use of words there is interesting) What do
I mean "deal with?"
Well... the emotion is there, so there must be a problem. So, you're in the
market and felling ... Acid in my gut, dry mouth, blank mind. But not a
So, I'm feeling that now. What is it telling you?
Losing money, fear of losing money. Questions flash in my mind... Am I good
enough, I'll never make it back...
Ok. So I'm afraid of losing money. I'm afraid I can't make the money I've
It seems different than that. I feel that description doesn't quite fit ...
Past trading losses, my wife's reactions flash through my mind. I have a
memory of her looking over the counter at me with some look on her face...
Ok. What do you feel about that?
Like crying. Like screaming in frustration! Then a wave of gooseflesh and a
lightheadedness, then... nothing.
Ok. So you're in a position, and you're looking at the setup annnnnd you're
in the market. Now what do you feel?
My mouth is dry, I'm short of breath and my gut is boiling.
Ok. How do I do that, what are you thinking about?
This thing's going to hell fast as lightning, I'll stop out but then I'll
freeze before I reverse my position. Maybe I won't have enough trades today.
I'll end up in the hole, and have to recover the loss, plus fees just to pay
my bills... I'm focusing on that, images from the past ... punishments, not
being selected into special forces...
Now I feel dissatisfied, a heaviness in my chest. I want to get up and do
something else, something constructive... (I get up, eying my office. I can
rearrange my desk over by the window ... Maybe I can just adjust my fan...
I still fee frustrated. An empty felling in my chest. I feel like there has
to be closure. I'm waiting for something.
What are you waiting for?
I'm frustrated that my plans aren't coming to fruition, that I run forward
only to find myself out of money, I try projects that fail. I'm frustrated
with this process. I'm pissed off now. I feel like crying. I well up a bit,
then It's like someone inside of me is sobbing... Then nothing.
Are you still frustrated, do you feel like crying?
I'm still frustrated, but less than before, no crying.
Tribe can cheer you on, along the path toward liberating Fred's
you may be able to get started all by yourself ... or with someone you know.
Friends from pre-existing relationships may not want you to change too much
or too quickly, particularly if you have lively Under Fred dramas with them.
intentional community of relative strangers, focusing on TTP, seems to be
free of such inhibitory conflicts.
that develop within a Tribe seem to include commitment to help each other
grow, from the start.
man without a tribe can join one or start one.
Tribe Can Cheer You On
Thu, 17 Jul 2003
Dear Mr. Seykota,
I happen to tell people about interesting trading opportunities, that often
turn out spectacularly well. But I do not follow my own advice.
What is my problem?
is not necessarily a problem.
of people seem to get along quite well by giving advice they do not follow.
might be a problem, for you, if you want to change your pattern, and find
some strong feelings standing in the way.
might check your feelings about it, and if you still seem stuck on
something, write me back about it.
I have some advice for you ...
grow up to be a Cowboy.
I know that's right good advice
my own Pa told that to me
this very same spot.
Thu, 17 Jul 2003
I have to apologize for a previous email to you and as a result I find
myself extremely embarrassed.
you wish to edit an item on FAQ, email FAQ, identifying the date and
title and specify how you wish to edit the item. See Ground Rules
you feel a need to apologize, you might take that feeling to a meeting and
work through it with TTP.
Fred communicates that feeling to CM you might keep setting up similar
I better do something wrong first.
Wed, 16 Jul 2003
San Diego Tribe
I would like to do the Trading Tribe Process and start a new tribe in my
area (San Diego).
I've read the
TTP working paper and it seems like a really good approach to improve my
connection with my feelings. Both sending and receiving seem like they would
be great experiential processes for growth.
I am 48 yrs old and have two years of futures trend following experience.
Many more years of using other approaches (not as successful) to investing.
Thanks for your help,
are now on the
Wed, 16 Jul 2003
I am interested in attending your meeting in October. I think you should
include things like some basic principles of trend following or the Donchian
Principles that were on your site.
I know you do not recommend any specific trading methods however some people
might believe in some trading principles that do not work. They may not know
they have a problem that could be helped by TTP.
In one of my
e-mails to you I did not even know I was trying to predict moves in stocks
until you brought it to my attention! It was a basic principle that I was
A few very basic methods of trading could help. How can someone know if Fred
is hurting their trading/investing performance if they do not know most or
some of the basic methods that work? Maybe some examples of successful
traders you know would help. I know it would help me anyway!
Regarding my e-mail to you on May 30th 2003 titled "Risk". I toned
down my risk a bit and had some good results. I still risked more than you
suggested but less than I normally would and I got lucky with a roaring 3
month NASDAQ Bull run so far. I am now at $190k and $54k from the May 30th
amounts of $140k and $40k in my stock accounts (Up about 75% and 158%
respectively from January where I was at $110k and $18k.).
I am off margin now and have $52,000 in cash in the larger account and am in
full cash in the smaller account. I am going on vacation to San Francisco
next week from July 22nd - 28th with my wife. I do not want to have too
risky trades going on while I am away on vacation. Do you reduce trading or
get into more cash during vacations?
I am going to start trading commodities when I get back from vacation to see
how I do. I attempted this years back and only broke even. I realize that
when stocks are stagnant I have to be able to trade other things. Is there
any other vehicles besides stocks and commodities that trend well? Are there
any other trading vehicles that I should be aware of or are there
commodities that have historically trended well?
I also really like the www.TurtleTrader.com
proceeds from the issues and desires of the participants in the room in the
moment of now.
person might have an issue with confrontations, another with loyalty and
another with fear of math.
someone has an issue about being able to stay with a trend, cut losses or
is no "best system" for everyone, just as there is no best car or
right for every one.
Wed, 16 Jul 2003
I had sent you an FAQ a while back voicing my concern about my anonymity
privacy issues ... I still have mixed feelings about some of the content
within this email making its way to the masses.
I also inquired to tutoring / coaching arrangements ...
you wish to edit an item on FAQ, email FAQ, identifying the date and title
and specify how you wish to edit the item. See Ground Rules.
am planning a workshop for October 24, 25 and 26.
occasionally conduct private coaching ... send me an email describing
what results you want.
I don't even talk to myself about it.
Wed, 16 Jul 2003
TT Process and
I noticed in one of your answers in FAQ that you mention the October dates
of 24, 25 and 26 for the TTP seminar at Tahoe. I wanted to make sure I
didn't miss the details on RSVP etc on your website; are they posted yet?
Also, I've been following the FAQ for a while now and, although I haven't
been able to attend a tribe meeting yet, I've taken notes and tried to
understand the process.
what I was doing, I've tried the technique of expressing feelings from Fred
to my girlfriend in the TT format you've described. Leaving out stories,
analyzing, etc. Just feelings.
I haven't felt any
"aha's", but what I HAVE noticed is that she seems to respond to
me much better. We seem closer in our relationship and she somehow ...
well its hard to explain but she seems to "light up" when I talk
to her in that expressive way.
Almost like she
gets really into me and what I'm saying. It seems to carryover into other
areas of our relationship in a very positive way. Am I imagining things?
Has anybody else noticed similar?
I guess I always thought I was pretty open with my feelings to her, but
now that I look back, most of my "expressions" of feelings were on
the order of statements and grumblings or chuckles, but not actually what I
deals with you as a whole person, and trading issues resolve as part of the
best way to become a better trader is to become a better person.
Happens to Women
Fred comes out to play.
Wed, 16 Jul 2003
Stages of TTP,
You're right, Ed, I love theories about feelings. Lots of good
theories about where they came from, who is creating them, why I want them,
why I don't need them, why I am more powerful, how to control, when they
should appear, when I should suppress, so many profound insights have I.
What a novel idea that none of them matter, just embrace the feeling.
Sort of like theories about stocks, P/E ratios, earnings expectations,
insider buying, book value, analyst reports, PEG ratios, sector analysis,
economic data, Fed pronouncements, interest rates. What a novel idea that
none of them matter, just embrace the trend.
Liberating. Chop wood. Carry Water. Place order.
Wed, 16 Jul 2003
I was a member of your trading tribe some years ago and would like to
thank you again for your training.
I am writing to
let you know I appreciate your continued interest in my progress as a trader
and person and to ask you a question. As you know, after being a member of
your tribe for some time I found a position trading for a wealthy family.
years I decided to move to a hedge fund with over 1/2 billion dollars under
management - these positions were secured in large part due to your
generously providing a reference for me attesting to my understanding of
what attributes makes for a successful trading system and trader.
I am now
interviewing with one of the most prestigious and largest hedge funds. My
question is: Will you provide me with a reference once again stating that I
received the benefit of your excellent training?
I know this will
go a long way in securing a position with this firm due to your stature and
the respect it commands in the industry along with being backed up with my
successful track record. Thanks again and good luck.
"Once a Trading Tribe member, always a Trading Tribe member"
am planning a certification process for investors and for traders.
Likely for sometime in 2004.
Trading Tribe Process.
Tue, 15 Jul 2003
See July 1:
You might have a look at what Fred is trying to tell
you via your tendency to use "emergencies" to entrain people into
Laugh my f------ a-- off. You are a f----- joke. My "tendency" to
use emergencies?? This is based on your careful analysis of what exactly??
One observation by you shows a tendency?? To entrain you into
co-dependency?? You mean, for me to find out if I had a specific problem
with reaching your IP?? F--- off. You're a joke. Looks like anybody can read
a few pop psychology books nowadays and think they are the messiah.
Kubler-Ross' model of the stages of death and dying also seems to apply to
attitude change, aha's and feelings during a market trend.
you get closer to an aha ... your CM might go through some ego death stages.
you can find an aha in ha ha.
a Path for Something Else
Tue, 15 Jul 2003
You might pass through a half dozen interlocking
feelings before you get to a key experience that spills the knot.
I have a good receiver who helps me with the journey. I am very close to a
key experience and I acknowledge its nuances in different aspects of life,
such as relationships and trading itself. It manifests itself as an
intense anxiety that prevents me from expressing my true feelings and
acknowledging my (emotional) needs. As a result of this anxiety about
feelings I choose the logic path instead to manage them and avoid losing
Note: I will report you about our progress.
Tue, 15 Jul 2003
You might have a look at your feelings about touching
Fun for some and scary for others
Well, I examine the feelings and they are scary. Yet it depends with whom.
For instance, I have a female friend co-worker, with whom touching and
feeling has nothing scary about. With very few exceptions, though, it is
indeed very scary.
July 8 Q shows concern with others not being comfortable with
way to draw people closer is to fully receive and acknowledge their desire
people like to sit side by side.
prefer the ends.
Tue, 15 Jul 2003
I'm getting used to going with the flow and experiencing my feelings on the
fly. Communication between Fred and CM is really picking up.
My conscious mind is lo longer running wild all over the place, trying to
escape my feelings and focusing on negatives. The process allows me to take
control my consciousness.
When I interact with others, relationships are better.
people do not want to be involved with me when I start talking about
feelings, experience, living in the now, or controlling the consciousness.
respond by laughing at me and saying that these things are either foolish,
or impossible to accomplish for most people. In general, many get defensive
with me. Initial defensiveness is a natural part of the process.
Unfortunately, it seems like many never get past that stage.
A recent example from a conversation with another trader (Defensive Trader)
went something like this.
Defensive Trader: "So how are things going. Did you get hired by that
firm you're working for to manage money?"
Me: "Yes. I'm at the bottom of the totem pole right now, but I'm
managing my own small account. I am really enjoying my trading. When I am
trading, or doing research, I am fully immersed in it. I am doing well and
making money. For many, money is seen as an end and trading is a means to
that end. For me, the market is the end and accumulation of wealth simply
comes along with the accomplishment of my goals. I like money, I like nice
things, and I like trading. Things are going great."
Defensive Trader: "Well the trader you work for really thinks he knows
it all. I tried to help him make more money, but he wouldn't listen to me. I
know I could have helped, but he has a know-it-all attitude. You can always
learn something, and when I get rich I am not going to be like that. Well,
you better put up the numbers or you are going to get canned!"
I realized right away that the mistake was mine. Although I see two ways to
look at this scenario.
#1) I might have headed the words of Old Dickinson; "When in adversity,
don't speak of it, you will make others unhappy. When in prosperity, don't
speak of it, you will make others unhappy."
#2) He asked how I was doing and I told him. How he feels about the way I
feel is not something I can control.
story is consistent with a pattern of jumping right into things.
might examine your feelings of wanting quick results.
aspect of TTP is pacing others at their speed ...
friend might like a little time to warm up ...
him into intimate discussions of feelings before he is ready might be a
little like pushing a trade into your portfolio before it is ready to go.
rush these song lyrics
over to the Pointer Sisters
I want a man with
a slow hand
I want a lover
with an easy touch
I want somebody
who will spend some time Not come and go in a heated rush
I want somebody
who will understand
When it comes to
love, I want a slow hand
Mon, 14 Jul 2003
Washington DC Trading Tribe
I want to join the DC area TT. I e-mailed the contact person listed in
the directory on July 3. I haven't received a response yet. Is the
e-mail address listed still valid?
personal growth groups and Intentional Communities and provides a bulletin
board and directory to assist like-minded people to connect, at their own
Tribe Directory for instructions on how to join or start an intentional
Sun, 13 Jul 2003
I wonder if the creep curves and bathtub curves at
could be applied to trading systems, as a mathematical aid to letting the
trader know it's time to take a vacation or get to a TTP meeting before
Fred overlays simple rule-following with his dramas.
The author defines "Creep is the progressive deformation of a material
under constant load at a given temperature."
Translation: Progressive deformation of a trader's willpower ... at a given
May be a function of simply watching the trend in a portfolio equity graph, but
maybe observation of trading mistakes could stop a trader before the equity
line turns down. I believe one would find the trap is set when trading
mistakes, deviating from one's system, yields profits. Fred says "I'm
smarter than the system." Prelude to a drawdown.
The web site author applies the theory to systems which wear out, hydro
mechanical devices, such as loading cranes, submarine diesel engines. A
trading system doesn't wear out, but markets do, and traders do.
Could the Y axis be "cumulative trading mistakes" or some other
measurable manifestation of Fred's?
One could go back through one's trading history, and see where he "blew
up", and count how many times he deviated from system just before
drawdown began. My expectation is a finding of deviations from one's
system which yielded positive results.
Or maybe this intellectual approach too circuitous. More direct to simply
feel it. However, this research would at least give a trader something to
occupy his time while swimming across a deep Lake.
Worthwhile, or ramified thinking avoiding more central issues?
might take your desire to find an immortal holy grail system into the TTP
way to maintain your trading edge is to keep attending Tribe meetings on a
regular basis and keep working on your issues.
find the beauty and elegance of a profound aha pretty close to immortal.
Andersson stuns Lionel Kieseritzky
the amazing 18-th move:
moves Bishop to Queen-6
?!?!? ... Aha !!!!!