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Workshop

 

 

 

July 13-19, 2003

 

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Sat, 19 Jul 2003

Question


Ed you mentioned the October 3-day workshop you are planning. A quick few questions if I may?

1) Will the workshop be covering TTP (Psychological Fred and CM issues), trading techniques (mechanics/strategies) or some combination of the two?

2) Does the regular attendance requirement still hold for any attendee for this particular workshop? Being from Boston, it would be nice if I knew what your benchmark is for “regular attendance” for the TTP meetings.

3) What kind of numbers do you typically get for both workshops and regular TTP gatherings? Are you dealing with an auditorium of participants or is it more intimate?

Thank you once again.

Kindest regards,

See Workshop ... above
Sat, 19 Jul 2003

The Lion


"One way to dissolve impatience is to allow, enjoy and celebrate the feelings of impatience. This converts the feeling from a drama engine to a drama avoider."

Yes! My feelings are natural and, as always, have a positive intention. Fred just wants to make sure that I match my skills with my opportunities for action. Fred knows that matching skills with opportunities for action helps to create order in the consciousness.

Experiencing this feels good, and helps to alleviate frustration.

Fred helps me be like the Lion.

The lion, when he runs after a pack of gazelles, can only catch them one at a time.

OK.

Fri, 18 Jul 2003

 

Dichotomies

Hi Ed,

Thank you for the method for resolving dichotomies you taught at the tribe meeting.

 

Fred often expresses himself to me visually, so this is especially helpful. These are things I have not figured out after 9 years of trading, and probably wouldn't ever on my own.

You can identify the feeling of a dichotomy by investing your hands with the polar feelings and then noticing what appears between them when you bring them together.

 

 

Hands come together

in celebration

 

Clip: http://home.earthlink.net/

~soulwork/hands.gif

Fri, 18 Jul 2003

 

Facing Fear


Dear Ed,

I just read an e-mail sent to you on Wednesday July 16th titled "Reference Information"

I have to tell you that those are the kind of results I would like with myself.

I would either like to trade with a hedge fund or make enough myself to live off of trading/investing.

I also have to say that it is very scary for me to write this to you. It is one thing trading my own funds but to risk other peoples money ... very scary to me ... If it means being a better trader/investor I am ready.

I am in so much of a comfort zone ... xx years old with a low paying job a small nice house ... etc ... I don't know why but now I feel I have to move on. I am becoming uncomfortable ... like I am not contributing to the World enough anymore.

Since I now understand some good risk management due to your "Risk Management" section I feel more comfortable if trade other peoples money. It has given me a calmness just by reducing my own trading risk.

Do you have any more suggestions for me. You have been so helpful these last few months. I will attend your seminar ... a personal coaching TTP etc. Whatever it takes! I trust your judgment because of your trading ability. I feel I am just at the tip of the iceberg when it comes to my potential.

It has been 17 years of investing trading for me and I have only been able to communicate with 2 great traders/investors William O'Neil for a brief three sentences at a seminar and you through these e-mails. I have wanted a mentor for all these years and have used books. I don't feel compulsive or obsessed to learn. I feel like I was always meant to be a trader/investor. I just like it very much and I like to learn.

I hope this e-mail clears my intentions to you. If you are willing to help me I am ready to go to the next level. I will be waiting for your response or instructions.

TTP tends to lead to right livelihood. For some it means a career as a trader. 

 

Others discover they do not wish to trade ... and in the process, learn how to select and maintain a relationship with a good trader.

 

TTP provides a way for members of an intentional community to coach each other.

 

 

A Coach is One Kind of Vehicle

to get you to your goal.

 

 

Clip: www.nhhistory.org/

images/coach.jpg

 

Fri, 18 Jul 2003

 

Ever Evolving Moment


Hello Chief!

I have only the ever evolving moment of now and I can make choices about what to do. (FAQ Post Date: Fri, 30 May 2003, Imprecision)

Conceptually I find it easy to understand and I do value its importance, but I find it difficult to stay in NOW state and experience ever evolving moment. Can you please elaborate it how can we stay in present moment with ever evolving moment to make better choices in life?

Thanks for all the insights and TTP and I am looking forward to see you in October.

Respects

You are in the now state, right now and forever, whether you realize it or not.

 

If you think you are not a now person, then perhaps you think you are a past person, so let's see you change the past ...

 

or if you think you are actually a future person, how about you tell me something I can confirm in tomorrow's newspaper.

 

I'd bet you are really a now kind of guy ... including all the thoughts about the past and future you have right now.

 

Hmmm ... it's still now.

 

Clip: www.grumblebee.com/

poem/temping.html

Fri, 18 Jul 2003

 

Quick on the Draw

"Your story is consistent with a pattern of jumping right into things. You might examine your feelings of wanting quick results. One aspect of TTP is pacing others at their speed ... your friend might like a little time to warm up ..."


You are correct. It is evident that I was acting out a long standing drama of failing to have patience, both with my self and with others.

I have experienced my feelings about this drama before. However, it appears that I expected it to disintegrate too quickly. hah.

Overexcitement that leads to being too quick on the draw can have disastrous results in the town square at high noon, in the markets and with the Pointer Sisters.

This drama could become a costly one. Better to have the patience to let the process work itself out as opposed to expecting aha's to equate to immediate drama liquidation.

One way to dissolve impatience is to allow, enjoy and celebrate the feelings of impatience. 

 

This converts the feeling from an drama engine to a drama avoider.

 

 

 

To Rush Less ...

 

experience the feelings of rush more.

 

Clip: http://helios.insnet.com/

~tjl1886/p1.htm

 

Fri, 18 Jul 2003

Experiencing Feelings


So, I've got this system, see. And I'm following the trend, see. But today, I start getting frustrated, then the burning in my gut comes along. Now, I tells it "Ok, Fred, let me know what you're doing." I starts trying to describe it, shape it ya know. Then, I gets stuck. Its a like a ball, see. and it's in the gut, ya know. Right in the entrails, with fuzzy edges.

Then, I get out of the position early, see. Cuz the feeling starts up my throat. Like a worm, not crawly but slow. Then it hits my mouth, and that goes dry, and I'm starting to breathe fast, see. So I'm not thinking clear, I'm scared. So's I'm flat that contract right after my signal ...

(a bit of humor, cuz I felt like Bugsy, or Al Capone at that moment)

What now?

If CM-Bugsy tries to tell Fred to talk, Fred may clam up.

 

Even more likely, Fred is getting you to act like Bugsy to engineer some or another experience.

 

So, typical of the syndrome, you are in a Catch-22 situation.

 

To get Fred to come out, you might treat Fred like Bugsy treats his girl.

 

 

 

Bugsy Malone ...

 

may have to use a little charm

to get Blousey Brown in the mood.

 

Clip: http://www.nodanw.com/

shows_b/bugsy_malone.htm

Thu, 17 Jul 2003

 

Risk Model, Figure 3


What am I missing????

In figure 3 you show a series which purports to lay out in tabular form the "expected value" of 25% bets in the coin toss example.

Your illustration of the "Kelly formula" shows your 25% conclusion to be "true".

In Mathematics of Gambling by Thorp, the Kelly formula is held out as p-(1-p) where p is your historical performance greater than 0.5. My own seems to average about 0.55. (7 wins, 3 losses per 10 trades, stopped losses = +/- 50- 75 % wins) I am not certain of the final 0.55, it having been some time since I crunched the numbers. The system is making steady gains.

He states 4% of total cash pool = optimum risk. This he states "is known in investment circles as the "optimal geometric growth portfolio" or OGGP"

This is from pages 126-127 of above book.

I have found by much (sometimes painful) experience that this 4% number seems comfortable.

Please tell me if I am missing something key, or am I just brain-dead and have missed the entire point of your excerpt and the tables?

Are you stating that you should never place a dollar value trade of more than 25% of your total account, counting each bundle as theoretical 100% risk per ( in reality the risk of 100% loss using stops is usually quite small), or are you saying that 25% of entire portfolio value is your optimum loss risk value per trade? The former seems a bit too conservative, the latter a bit crazy. Or, are you saying something entirely different that I am just too thick to get?

a bit baffled,

Thorp is likely the best source for clarifying the meaning of his book.

 

Regarding the 25% solution on the FAQ Risk Management page:

 

The coin-toss example intends to illuminate some of the elements of risk, and their inter-relationships.

 

It specifically applies to a coin that pays 2:1 with a 50% chance of either heads or tails, in which an equal number of heads and tails appears.

 

It does not consider the case in which the numbers of heads and tails are unequal or in which the heads and tails bunch up to create winning and losing streaks.

 

It does not suggest any particular risk parameters for trading the markets.

 

 

Be sure to find out which side is heads before you bet.

 

 

Clip: www.writer2001.com/exp0002.htm

Thu, 17 Jul 2003

What's a man without a tribe to do...

So, a -----y day in the markets.

Whipsaws, missed trades, indecision.

Dry mouth, acid in my gut, and now at the end of the day frustration.

When I explore my feelings, I get to that "blankness" quite quickly. So, I probe. Writing this helps a bit, quite a bit, actually.

(In fact, after my last mail I did notice that I wasn't as reactionary to my wife's emotions. I'm better able to listen and give her real communication.)

It is the process I'm wondering about. (I'm very familiar with matching/mirroring (pacing, I believe NLP uses)) How does one deal with,
and experience, the emotion. (my use of words there is interesting) What do
I mean "deal with?"

Well... the emotion is there, so there must be a problem. So, you're in the market and felling ... Acid in my gut, dry mouth, blank mind. But not a peaceful blankness.
So, I'm feeling that now. What is it telling you?

Losing money, fear of losing money. Questions flash in my mind... Am I good
enough, I'll never make it back...

Ok. So I'm afraid of losing money. I'm afraid I can't make the money I've lost back.

It seems different than that. I feel that description doesn't quite fit ... Past trading losses, my wife's reactions flash through my mind. I have a memory of her looking over the counter at me with some look on her face...

Ok. What do you feel about that?

Like crying. Like screaming in frustration! Then a wave of gooseflesh and a
lightheadedness, then... nothing.

Ok. So you're in a position, and you're looking at the setup annnnnd you're in the market. Now what do you feel?

My mouth is dry, I'm short of breath and my gut is boiling.

Ok. How do I do that, what are you thinking about?

This thing's going to hell fast as lightning, I'll stop out but then I'll freeze before I reverse my position. Maybe I won't have enough trades today. I'll end up in the hole, and have to recover the loss, plus fees just to pay my bills... I'm focusing on that, images from the past ... punishments, not being selected into special forces...

Now I feel dissatisfied, a heaviness in my chest. I want to get up and do something else, something constructive... (I get up, eying my office. I can rearrange my desk over by the window ... Maybe I can just adjust my fan... That's better!)

I still fee frustrated. An empty felling in my chest. I feel like there has to be closure. I'm waiting for something.

What are you waiting for?

I'm frustrated that my plans aren't coming to fruition, that I run forward only to find myself out of money, I try projects that fail. I'm frustrated with this process. I'm pissed off now. I feel like crying. I well up a bit, then It's like someone inside of me is sobbing... Then nothing.

Are you still frustrated, do you feel like crying?

I'm still frustrated, but less than before, no crying.

Now what?

Your Tribe can cheer you on, along the path toward liberating Fred's communications.

 

Yes, you may be able to get started all by yourself ... or with someone you know.

 

Note: Friends from pre-existing relationships may not want you to change too much or too quickly, particularly if you have lively Under Fred dramas with them.

 

An intentional community of relative strangers, focusing on TTP, seems to be free of such inhibitory conflicts.

 

Friendships that develop within a Tribe seem to include commitment to help each other grow, from the start.

 

A man without a tribe can join one or start one.

 

 

Your Tribe Can Cheer You On

 

 

Clip: www.emandal.com/

childrens-camp/camp-information.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 17 Jul 2003

 

Problem


Dear Mr. Seykota,


I happen to tell people about interesting trading opportunities, that often turn out spectacularly well. But I do not follow my own advice.


What is my problem?

There is not necessarily a problem.

 

Lots of people seem to get along quite well by giving advice they do not follow.

 

It might be a problem, for you, if you want to change your pattern, and find some strong feelings standing in the way.

 

You might check your feelings about it, and if you still seem stuck on something, write me back about it.

 

 

Son, I have some advice for you ...

 

Don't grow up to be a Cowboy.

Now, I know that's right good advice

because my own Pa told that to me

on this very same spot.

 

OK Pa.

 

 

Clip: www.madeinthehills.com/news.html

Thu, 17 Jul 2003

 

Apology


I have to apologize for a previous email to you and as a result I find myself extremely embarrassed.

If you wish to edit an item on FAQ,  email FAQ, identifying the date and title and specify how you wish to edit the item. See Ground Rules

 

If you feel a need to apologize, you might take that feeling to a meeting and work through it with TTP.

 

Until Fred communicates that feeling to CM you might keep setting up similar dramas.

 

 

So I better do something wrong first.

 

Clip: www.kevscartoons.com/ apology.htm

Wed, 16 Jul 2003


San Diego Tribe

Hi Ed,

I would like to do the Trading Tribe Process and start a new tribe in my area (San Diego).

 

I've read the TTP working paper and it seems like a really good approach to improve my connection with my feelings. Both sending and receiving seem like they would be great experiential processes for growth.

I am 48 yrs old and have two years of futures trend following experience.
Many more years of using other approaches (not as successful) to investing.


Thanks for your help,

 

Welcome

San Diego!

 

You are now on the

Tribe Directory Page.

 

 

Clip: http://travel-help.com/

san-diego-hotels.html

Wed, 16 Jul 2003

 

Trading and meeting.


Dear Ed,

I am interested in attending your meeting in October. I think you should include things like some basic principles of trend following or the Donchian Principles that were on your site.

I know you do not recommend any specific trading methods however some people might believe in some trading principles that do not work. They may not know they have a problem that could be helped by TTP.

 

In one of my e-mails to you I did not even know I was trying to predict moves in stocks until you brought it to my attention! It was a basic principle that I was missing!

A few very basic methods of trading could help. How can someone know if Fred is hurting their trading/investing performance if they do not know most or some of the basic methods that work? Maybe some examples of successful traders you know would help. I know it would help me anyway!

Regarding my e-mail to you on May 30th 2003 titled "Risk". I toned down my risk a bit and had some good results. I still risked more than you suggested but less than I normally would and I got lucky with a roaring 3 month NASDAQ Bull run so far. I am now at $190k and $54k from the May 30th amounts of $140k and $40k in my stock accounts (Up about 75% and 158% respectively from January where I was at $110k and $18k.).

I am off margin now and have $52,000 in cash in the larger account and am in full cash in the smaller account. I am going on vacation to San Francisco next week from July 22nd - 28th with my wife. I do not want to have too risky trades going on while I am away on vacation. Do you reduce trading or get into more cash during vacations?

I am going to start trading commodities when I get back from vacation to see how I do. I attempted this years back and only broke even. I realize that when stocks are stagnant I have to be able to trade other things. Is there any other vehicles besides stocks and commodities that trend well? Are there any other trading vehicles that I should be aware of or are there commodities that have historically trended well?

I also really like the www.TurtleTrader.com  site.

TTP proceeds from the issues and desires of the participants in the room in the moment of now.

 

One person might have an issue with confrontations, another with loyalty and another with fear of math.

 

Occasionally someone has an issue about being able to stay with a trend, cut losses or manage risk.

 

There is no "best system" for everyone, just as there is no best car or best wife.

 

 

 

No one model

is right for every one.

 

 

Clip: http://www.penpal.ru/eng/

photo/love-394931.jpg

 

 

 

Wed, 16 Jul 2003


Privacy

 
Hi Ed,


I had sent you an FAQ a while back voicing my concern about my anonymity privacy issues ... I still have mixed feelings about some of the content within this email making its way to the masses.

I also inquired to tutoring / coaching arrangements ...














If you wish to edit an item on FAQ, email FAQ, identifying the date and title and specify how you wish to edit the item. See Ground Rules.

 

I am planning a workshop for October 24, 25 and 26. 

 

I occasionally conduct private coaching ...  send me an email describing what results you want.

 

It's so Confidential

 

that I don't even talk to myself about it.

 

 

http://www.dirtragmag.com/privacy.php

Wed, 16 Jul 2003

 

TT Process and Dates

Hi Ed,

I noticed in one of your answers in FAQ that you mention the October dates of 24, 25 and 26 for the TTP seminar at Tahoe. I wanted to make sure I didn't miss the details on RSVP etc on your website; are they posted yet?

Also, I've been following the FAQ for a while now and, although I haven't been able to attend a tribe meeting yet, I've taken notes and tried to understand the process.

 

Without saying what I was doing, I've tried the technique of expressing feelings from Fred to my girlfriend in the TT format you've described. Leaving out stories, analyzing, etc. Just feelings.

 

I haven't felt any "aha's", but what I HAVE noticed is that she seems to respond to me much better. We seem closer in our relationship and she somehow ... well its hard to explain but she seems to "light up" when I talk to her in that expressive way.

 

Almost like she gets really into me and what I'm saying. It seems to carryover into other areas of our relationship in a very positive way. Am I imagining things? Has anybody else noticed similar?

I guess I always thought I was pretty open with my feelings to her, but now that I look back, most of my "expressions" of feelings were on the order of statements and grumblings or chuckles, but not actually what I was feeling.

TTP deals with you as a whole person, and trading issues resolve as part of the whole.

 

The best way to become a better trader is to become a better person.

 

 

Something Happens to Women

 

when Fred comes out to play.

 

 

Clip: http://darwilliams.net/Fans/

darcards.html

 

 

 

Wed, 16 Jul 2003

 

Stages of TTP, (followup)

You're right, Ed, I love theories about feelings. Lots of good theories about where they came from, who is creating them, why I want them, why I don't need them, why I am more powerful, how to control, when they should appear, when I should suppress, so many profound insights have I. What a novel idea that none of them matter, just embrace the feeling.

Sort of like theories about stocks, P/E ratios, earnings expectations, insider buying, book value, analyst reports, PEG ratios, sector analysis, economic data, Fed pronouncements, interest rates. What a novel idea that none of them matter, just embrace the trend.

Liberating. Chop wood. Carry Water. Place order.

Yes.

Wed, 16 Jul 2003

 

Reference Information

Dear Ed,

I was a member of your trading tribe some years ago and would like to thank you again for your training.

 

I am writing to let you know I appreciate your continued interest in my progress as a trader and person and to ask you a question. As you know, after being a member of your tribe for some time I found a position trading for a wealthy family.

 

After several years I decided to move to a hedge fund with over 1/2 billion dollars under management - these positions were secured in large part due to your generously providing a reference for me attesting to my understanding of what attributes makes for a successful trading system and trader.

 

I am now interviewing with one of the most prestigious and largest hedge funds. My question is: Will you provide me with a reference once again stating that I received the benefit of your excellent training?

 

I know this will go a long way in securing a position with this firm due to your stature and the respect it commands in the industry along with being backed up with my successful track record. Thanks again and good luck.

Sincerely,

"Once a Trading Tribe member, always a Trading Tribe member"

I am planning a certification process for investors and for traders.  Likely for sometime in 2004.

 

 

 

 

Mastery Includes

 

The Trading Tribe Process.

Basic trading skills.

Right livelihood.

Support network.

Contributing to others.

 

 

Clip: www.amdis.org/diploma.jpg

Tue, 15 Jul 2003


Ha Ha

See July 1: Correctness


You might have a look at what Fred is trying to tell you via your tendency to use "emergencies" to entrain people into co-dependency.


Laugh my f------ a-- off. You are a f----- joke. My "tendency" to use emergencies?? This is based on your careful analysis of what exactly?? One observation by you shows a tendency?? To entrain you into co-dependency?? You mean, for me to find out if I had a specific problem with reaching your IP?? F--- off. You're a joke. Looks like anybody can read a few pop psychology books nowadays and think they are the messiah.

Elisabeth Kubler-Ross' model of the stages of death and dying also seems to apply to attitude change, aha's and feelings during a market trend.

 

Denial and Isolation

Anger

Bargaining

Depression

Acceptance

 

As you get closer to an aha ... your CM might go through some ego death stages.

 

Note: you can find an aha in ha ha.

 

 

Clearing a Path for Something Else

 

Clip: www.paulkidby.com/ characters/death/

Tue, 15 Jul 2003

 

Key Experiences


You might pass through a half dozen interlocking feelings before you get to a key experience that spills the knot.


I have a good receiver who helps me with the journey. I am very close to a key experience and I acknowledge its nuances in different aspects of life, such as relationships and trading itself. It manifests itself as an intense anxiety that prevents me from expressing my true feelings and acknowledging my (emotional) needs. As a result of this anxiety about feelings I choose the logic path instead to manage them and avoid losing control.

Note: I will report you about our progress.

OK.

Tue, 15 Jul 2003

 

Touching and feeling


You might have a look at your feelings about touching and feeling

Fun for some and scary for others


Well, I examine the feelings and they are scary. Yet it depends with whom. For instance, I have a female friend co-worker, with whom touching and feeling has nothing scary about. With very few exceptions, though, it is indeed very scary.

Your July 8 Q shows concern with others not being comfortable with "touchy-feely."

 

One way to draw people closer is to fully receive and acknowledge their desire for distance.

 

 

Some people like to sit side by side.

 

Others prefer the ends.

 

 

Clip: www.ajcrosewood.com/dining/

Tue, 15 Jul 2003

 

Experience

Dear Ed,

I'm getting used to going with the flow and experiencing my feelings on the fly. Communication between Fred and CM is really picking up.

My conscious mind is lo longer running wild all over the place, trying to escape my feelings and focusing on negatives. The process allows me to take control my consciousness.

When I interact with others, relationships are better.

 

However, many people do not want to be involved with me when I start talking about feelings, experience, living in the now, or controlling the consciousness.

 

Some people respond by laughing at me and saying that these things are either foolish, or impossible to accomplish for most people. In general, many get defensive with me. Initial defensiveness is a natural part of the process. Unfortunately, it seems like many never get past that stage.

A recent example from a conversation with another trader (Defensive Trader) went something like this.

Defensive Trader: "So how are things going. Did you get hired by that firm you're working for to manage money?"

Me: "Yes. I'm at the bottom of the totem pole right now, but I'm managing my own small account. I am really enjoying my trading. When I am trading, or doing research, I am fully immersed in it. I am doing well and making money. For many, money is seen as an end and trading is a means to that end. For me, the market is the end and accumulation of wealth simply comes along with the accomplishment of my goals. I like money, I like nice things, and I like trading. Things are going great."

Defensive Trader: "Well the trader you work for really thinks he knows it all. I tried to help him make more money, but he wouldn't listen to me. I know I could have helped, but he has a know-it-all attitude. You can always learn something, and when I get rich I am not going to be like that. Well, you better put up the numbers or you are going to get canned!"

I realized right away that the mistake was mine. Although I see two ways to look at this scenario.

#1) I might have headed the words of Old Dickinson; "When in adversity, don't speak of it, you will make others unhappy. When in prosperity, don't speak of it, you will make others unhappy."

#2) He asked how I was doing and I told him. How he feels about the way I feel is not something I can control.

Thoughts?

Your story is consistent with a pattern of jumping right into things.

 

You might examine your feelings of wanting quick results.

 

One aspect of TTP is pacing others at their speed ...

 

your friend might like a little time to warm up ...

 

pushing him into intimate discussions of feelings before he is ready might be a little like pushing a trade into your portfolio before it is ready to go.

 

 

Here, rush these song lyrics

 right over to the Pointer Sisters

 

I want a man with a slow hand

I want a lover with an easy touch

I want somebody who will spend some time Not come and go in a heated rush

I want somebody who will understand

When it comes to love, I want a slow hand

 

Clip: www.servantops.org/

music/images2/hurry.gif

 

 

 

Mon, 14 Jul 2003


Washington DC Trading Tribe


Dear Ed,

I want to join the DC area TT. I e-mailed the contact person listed in the  directory on July 3. I haven't received a response yet. Is the e-mail address listed still valid?

Thanks,

FAQ encourages personal growth groups and Intentional Communities and provides a bulletin board and directory to assist like-minded people to connect, at their own risk.

 

See Tribe Directory for instructions on how to join or start an intentional community.

Sun, 13 Jul 2003

 

Creep Curve

 


Hi Ed,

I wonder if the creep curves and bathtub curves at

www.sys-ev.com/base10.htm

could be applied to trading systems, as a mathematical aid to letting the trader know it's time to take a vacation or get to a TTP meeting before Fred overlays simple rule-following with his dramas.

The author defines "Creep is the progressive deformation of a material under constant load at a given temperature."

Translation: Progressive deformation of a trader's willpower ... at a given drawdown ...

May be a function of simply watching the trend in a portfolio equity graph, but maybe observation of trading mistakes could stop a trader before the equity line turns down. I believe one would find the trap is set when trading mistakes, deviating from one's system, yields profits. Fred says "I'm smarter than the system." Prelude to a drawdown.

The web site author applies the theory to systems which wear out, hydro mechanical devices, such as loading cranes, submarine diesel engines. A trading system doesn't wear out, but markets do, and traders do.

Could the Y axis be "cumulative trading mistakes" or some other measurable manifestation of Fred's?

One could go back through one's trading history, and see where he "blew up", and count how many times he deviated from system just before drawdown began. My expectation is a finding of deviations from one's system which yielded positive results.

Or maybe this intellectual approach too circuitous. More direct to simply feel it. However, this research would at least give a trader something to occupy his time while swimming across a deep Lake.

Worthwhile, or ramified thinking avoiding more central issues?

You might take your desire to find an immortal holy grail system into the TTP process.

 

One way to maintain your trading edge is to keep attending Tribe meetings on a regular basis and keep working on your issues.

 

Some find the beauty and elegance of a profound aha pretty close to immortal.

 

 

 

The Immortal Game

London 1851

 

Adolf Andersson stuns Lionel Kieseritzky

with the amazing 18-th move:

 

White moves Bishop to Queen-6

What ?!?!? ... Aha !!!!!

 

Clip: www.chess-international.de/

bilder/oldies/immortal.gif