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Friday, December 10, 2010 Trading Tribe Support Team Dear Friends, I truly enjoy working with, and getting to know, each of you at the workshop. To those of you who share your goals and commitments at the workshop, I volunteer for your support team. Over the past year I benefit greatly from my own support team; I wish you success with yours. It's nice to have some friends to keep one on trend, especially when it bends! Best, |
Thank you for sharing your process.
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Thursday, December 9, 2010 Workshop Feedback - New Relationship with Son Hi Ed, Many thanks to you, Charles and all of the participants for an amazing 3 days. It was a life affirming (and potentially altering) experience, which I will not soon forget. I feel energized, alive and focused. I'm committed to practicing the intimacy-centric model in my relationships. and I am practicing being a better receiver for my family. My son came home from basketball practice on Monday with a look of sadness and despair. I asked him what was going on and he told me that there were a couple of kids who made some nasty comments to him about his skills and ability. Though my first inclination was to tell him how to 'fix' his problem. I resisted and instead looked him in the eyes and carefully listened to him. After a pause, I asked him how he felt. He proceeded to cry and to tell me more about the experience and then he told me about the rest of his day. When he finished, I told him how proud I was of him about sharing with me and that he could come to me anytime to share his feelings about whatever is going on in his life. I also said that if he is ever interested, I would be pleased to share my experience about dealing with mean kids (he did not take me up on this one..). He smiled, gave me a big hug and said 'I love you, Dad..'. All the best, |
Thank you for sharing your process - and for the example of a
new way for connecting with your son.
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Thursday, December 9, 2010 Workshop Feedback Dear Ed, Thank you for a fantastic workshop! I very much appreciated it and feel that I learned a lot in the short few days. best regards, |
OK. | |||
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Wednesday, December 8, 2010 Reads Entire FAQ Dear support group, I am done with my commitment to read FAQ from beginning to now. What a special journey. The TTP process seems to be evolving and growing toward greater clarity and usefulness. And it is so wonderfully integrated with my growth. Thank you all for being who you are! Special thank you to Ed, for sharing your wisdom. All the best |
Thank you for sharing your process. And now, you can also read this item, about yourself, reading through FAQ.
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Wednesday, December 8, 2010 Having Trouble Staying Away from the Screen Dear Mr. Ed, I have been thinking about "Intentions=Results" for the past few days. I suppose if i am not seeing the results i want, then either the intention is not really there (though i think it is), or maybe what really is happening is i am too wishy-washy with what i want. My current intention is to avoid having to look at the market every few minutes (stock tickers/futures quotes on a trading screen). I am finding this very hard to do. I catch myself almost unconsciously starting the trading application to watch the screen. The couple of times i have resisted the urge, i have given in within a few minutes. I am not even sure what feelings come out of this that i can take to Tribe. Hopefully my writing this to you will reveal (to you) what feelings i can take to tribe. Thanks, |
Thank you for sharing your process. You might consider how you use the information you get by watching your screen. You might also consider taking your feelings about <wanting to stop> to Tribe.
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Tuesday, December 7, 2010 Ten-Session Trading Tribe Starting in January Hello Ed, I recently participate in the TT workshop last weekend. I feel excited and energized. I recall you mention a 10 week TT event that you anticipate starting sometime in January. You mention that you think you will choose Thursday evenings for the get togethers, but you encourage feedback on dates. I want to attend, however Thursday nights would be difficult for me due to work commitments in [City]. If you are entertaining other dates, I vote for Friday or Saturday. Thank you for a great workshop last weekend. Sincerely, |
Thank you for your suggestions. | |||
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Tuesday, December 7, 2010 Wants Workshop in [Country] Hi, I hope it's good email address to contact with Ed Seykota. Ed, I really admire the way you trade markets. I was reading about you in Jack Schwager 's "Market Wizards". I find out more informations in the web. I like your approach to trading. And I find the page about radial momentum. I find it interesting because I was studying Astronomy. It would be great to meet you someday. Me and my friends from [University] were talking about you. We'd like to invite you to[Country]. It's beautiful country. Maybe you could present your workshop [here]. Best regards |
Thank you for your suggestion. I am open to travel if you are willing to handle all the logistics. |
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Tuesday, December 7, 2010 Frustrations Dear Ed, I have spent several months testing simple trend following systems similar to those mentioned on your website but I am yet to find any 'simple' strategy thing that is worthwhile trading. Over a database of 3000 US stocks and 40 futures I have found systems that give excellent results in sample but when I test them over recent data they nearly all have such large drawdowns that they take several years to recover from even though my level of heat is very low. The equity curve of these systems is very erratic. For example, 1 system I tested gave 15% CAR between 2000-2005 but when tested over 2005-2010 the CAR was a much worse 0.69%. The equity curve experienced a severe straight line drop during September and October of 2008. The old adage that trend followers were either out the market or short during the crash does not seem to be plausible to me as all the systems I test experience big losses during the crash as the moves are too abrupt for long term trend following systems to respond to the volatility. When I compare these systems to a simple dollar cost averaging style (which I tested out of chance) - the return seems better than trend following - around 10% an-15% and the equity line is almost perfect. Also, from months of testing I have not managed to find any robust method for shorting that gives profitable results even when using delisted data. I am beginning to wonder if it is even possible to make money trading. Trend following or not. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Best regards |
Thank you for sharing your process. I know a number of trend traders who are still making a living after 40 years of actual trading experience. You might consider taking your feelings about <frustration> to Tribe.
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Monday, December 6, 2010 Austin Trading Tribe Hi Ed, I would like to participate in the upcoming series of Austin Trading Tribe meetings. The workshop experience is truly life changing for me. I would like to continue in mastering the TTP. Thank you. Sincerely, |
OK. I am preparing a schedule. | |||
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Monday, December 6, 2010 Wants More Control Hi Ed, Thanks for your reply. I don’t need a private consultation from you. The reason I like to keep it my email private is because I don’t want my group members to read it, which may further deteriorate things. I have a question that you can post on FAQ. “I think it would be best if there is a set of rules, established by people like you who are familiar the pitfalls of tribes, that govern each tribes. Based on my observation of all community groups, the ones that are been governed by a bigger organization do best. The independent groups that are started and run by individuals often have problems, as the leaders often get into the problems of over-controlling and fear of losing control. After all, being a good leader requires much more leadership skills than what we normally see the leaders do in TV, movies or workplace. Having a set of rules will also help each tribe focus on TTP, instead wasting time on issues that have already been encountered by other tribes. TTP is a very good process, and I see tribes can really benefit if tribes is run by an established process, instead by people.” |
OK, here's a rule, just for you: Take your feelings about <control> and <Big Government> to Tribe, as an entry point. |
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Sunday, December 5, 2010 Radial Momentum Ed, I read your experiments, and wanted you to know about this supporter, unfortunately now deceased, was a co-inventor of the Macintosh computer and inventor of the Canon Cat computer. Wrote a book about human/computer interfaces, too. But in 1995 he wrote a paper about how the Coanda effect is more of an explanation of lift than is the Bernoulli effect, which I found convincing. I found a copy on the WayBack Machine: http://web.archive.org/web/20070806230711/ http://jef.raskincenter.org/published/coanda_effect.html Since his story is so similar to yours, I thought you ought to know about him. But of course, perhaps you already did. It's undeniable when you look at the overall picture (as opposed to details near the lifting object) that lift has to come from some combination of buoyancy and reaction force due to the change in momentum of air caused by its being deflected downward. OK, I'm neglecting ground effect situations. And in my view, reduced pressure above a wing is just a detail involved in redirecting air over a curved surface, largely using the Coanda effect. p.s. You sure go to some effort to hide your email address. |
Thank you for the link - and for your encouragement. |
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Sunday, December 5, 2010 Personal Affirmation Dear Ed: I report to you in the past my intention to create a systematic method for conditioning profitable trading habits. It is beyond the scope of this email to relay specifics, but the resultant feelings as the project peaks are gratitude and love and these are so salient that the specifics are not relevant to relate at this time. I believe the most important contribution I can make to FAQ today is a statement that I happened on this morning, one that I modified from a quote of Charles Faulkner (reference: Trend Following, Covel, 2004, pp. 177) , and personalized it in first person to apply to myself. I include this in part of my systematic method of trading practice and training. Perhaps some other traders will benefit from reading this. Please include it in FAQ if you will. Thank you. As a successful trader, I am consciously aware that my life is bigger than my trading. I am interested in the money and very interested in what I do to get it. I embrace my past, as well as who I am. Whether it’s, music, tennis, psychology, snowboarding, love, friends or family, my interest in the world around me helps carry me through the market and equity changes. Every day, whether I make money or not, I do get what I want. Sincerely, |
Thank you for sharing your process and your affirmation. | |||
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Saturday, December 4, 2010 Radial Momentum Hi Ed! I hope this email finds you well. I was your trading "mentee" in 2002 and once helped you to initiate correspondence with [Name], to discuss your Radial Momentum theory. It has been several years since we last corresponded but I saw something today that reminded me of you. I was standing in the checkout line of a Best Buy store this afternoon when I saw this item on display: http://www.bestbuy.com/site/Dyson+-+Air+Multiplier+-+Gloss+White/Satin+Silver/9711231.p?id=1218156155004&skuId=9711231&st=dyson%20air%20multiplier&cp=1&lp=1 It is a blade-less fan that directs a steady column of air towards the user. I was very curious about how it worked so I went home and found a video on YouTube where its inventor explains how it works: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8he8afjQyd8 The air behind the fan is drawn into the fan by inducement. The air around and in front of the fan begin to flow in the direction of the breeze via entrainment. Around the 1:48 minute mark the inventor says the air goes down an "expanding cone", and uses hand gestures to suggest the cone is radiating. In my mind's eye I envisioned a "radiating cone" of lower pressure and thought of your radial momentum theory. Fluid dynamics was never my strong suit but I thought you might find this blade-less fan interesting. Sincerely, |
Thank you for the links. | |||
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Saturday, December 4, 2010 The Cold Dish Ed, The weather has been a little wicked in your part of the woods and I trust you are doing well with the cycles changes as we move rapidly into the holidays. [Name] and I are doing great. We have dramatically matured since we first met at Lone Eagle Grille and our systems and business have come right along with us. It is odd as sometimes I feel that the we are collectors and custodians for the information from those that have come before us in this profession. We are rapidly running into and clearing "Yield signs" and as we do we see another trading legends footprint; lately I really have been feeling like a careful stepping Indian tracker moving in the dark using all the physical and psychic awareness I have gifted to me. This leads me to the point of my email.[Name] and I want to become part of your Trader Tribe. I think we are both at the place in our lives where we know we are building something really special and have been forced to give up almost everything we value to be the best systems traders we can be. Just being part of a Tribe would have a lot of value to us experientially. Bottom-line - Will you have us? If so, what is your process to get involved in the Tribe? "Exoriare aliquis nostris ex ossibus ultor" |
Thank you for sharing your process. Your motto, from Virgil's Aeneid, translates to: "May you arise from my bones, you unknown avenger." You might consider taking your feelings about <anger> and <revenge> to Tribe.
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Saturday, December 4, 2010 The Reflexive Market Hypothesis Dear Mr. Ed. Seykota, I have recently written a paper that is a radical departure from the efficient market hypothesis. However, not all revolutions are good and for this reason, I would like the opinion of a man with a deep knowledge of the markets, to see if my paper on what I call the Reflexive market hypothesis, makes sense. it develops an idea from George Soros -that we change markets even as we analyze them-, into a holistic approach to market phenomenon. Would you please take a look. I have attached the paper, I look forward to hearing from you, Kind Regards, |
Thank you for sharing your process. You might consider taking your feelings about <using a lot of big words> to Tribe.
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Friday, December 3, 2010 Checking In Hello, It is a year since the Breathwork weekend and I want to report and catch up will all of you. I am unable to attend the Dec. 2010 workshop and am feeling a bit sad about that and like I am missing out. Instead I intend to catch up on FAQ, support my family and am wishing all workshop participants a productive and meaningful weekend. Here is my summary of the last year: Breathwork: I do Breathwork on my own with some mixed results. After the weekend with all the fellow breathers I long for the same experience. I decide to get some similar music and give it a try. I can say that after some 15 attempts about 50% produce a similar non-ordinary state. I am very pleased with the results, however they fall short of the experience of that weekend. Thank you again Ed for introducing Breathwork to us. Trading: After the Breathwork weekend I have a large drawdown in my discretionary short term account. This coincides with health issues for two family members. It feels like a repeating pattern. I shift gears and develop multiple trading systems. This takes many months. In October I begin trading these systems. I like system trading and feel comfortable with it. However, I did not trade the systems well in middle of November. In November my stress level is high and I just do not enter trades. I feel something about this, I am going to call it internal conflict. Financial: Years of losing in a discretionary short term account and some major medical expenses put me in a debt situation. I intend to eliminate this and help others do the same. I notice some helpful suggestions on FAQ and intend to formulate a plan for myself and stick to it. Family: As stated above two of my children are dealing with health issues that have an impact on me and the entire family. My Daughter who is a senior in college has multiple issues to deal with. This has all seemed to just creep up on her. Before these issues she is very athletic, in great shape physically and a cheerleader at [School]. Now at times she has trouble walking. She has bilateral torn meniscus (knees), bilateral cam impingement with torn hip labrum (operation to repair has limited success), bilateral hallux rigidus (big toes, operation to repair pending) and random fainting (she goes out and down hard, Dr.’s can’t determine cause). We are working with Dr.’s but the issues are ongoing. My daughter is a real inspiration; she is in tremendous pain and keeps a high GPA at [School]. I can see it is getting to her though, she is not the same, just seems tired and not as cheerful as I remember her. I really feel that this is all gong to get sorted out, I just feel we will find the answers to all of it and she will be pain free again. I notice that I do not accept her as she is and I want to fix her. The second family member is my son who is 13. This year he has head trauma from a snow boarding accident. He is unconscious for at least 7 minutes and airlifted off the mountain. My wife and I have a 90 minute ride to hospital during which we feel feelings in a most intense manner. I think the best word for what I feel is terror, but I am not sure it is a new feeling and new intensity level for me. My son goes through an interesting 8 months. The hospital and Dr.’s call it a grade 3 concussion, but it is starting to seem like more. The first 2-3 weeks is an eye opener, he is not the same kid. After 8 months he is better in some ways but not in others. For example pre-accident he is in advanced math now he struggles with math and school is now very difficult for him. Pre-accident he is a highly coordinated athlete (he plays in the u10 version of the little league world series) and now he cannot play at the same level, not even close. Before he is a very serious, focused and polite young man and now at times he is very silly, childish, unfocused, angry and rude. He has intense neck and back pain and has developed an involuntary movement of the head or maybe a “tick” to go along with the other symptoms. This has turned a kid that I remember being a joy to be with into a real challenge to be around at times. Some of this is teenager stuff, but much of it is not. I am really struggling with all of this and I at some level blame myself for letting him snow board when I really wanted to say no. I have so much that I can write about this, but I think you can get the picture. I am very troubled by this because I have this idea or vision of my son in the non-existent future as a college athlete and maybe playing his sport beyond college. Again I notice that I do not accept him as he is and I want to fix him. I find that I am thinking more and more about my kids and wanting to research their issues instead of working on trading systems. This is an internal conflict for me because I have several trading system tasks as of yet to complete and I want to help my children. Also, in November, I find that when very upset I can and do mess up trading a system. I just want to let you all know I thinking of you, I am helping with family, I am hurting (feeling), and I am striving to be a helpful parent, husband and to show love. I am contemplating “everybody gets what they want” and I am wishing you all well! |
Thank you for sharing your process. A grade III concussion generally involves loss of consciousness for more than five minutes and/or amnesia for 24 hours. Sometimes, when people do not know how to express strong feelings to each other, they act them out, sometimes injuring themselves as a way to express grief. In this way, the act of direct grieving and sharing the grief with others can end the cycle of injuries. Feeling is healing. You might consider calling a family Tribe meeting or arranging some opportunity for all those who feel deeply about your son's situation to express their feelings and to receive the each others' feelings.
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Friday, December 3, 2010 Euro Cover Hello Ed, on the cover of latest issue of the Economist I see the euro committing suicide. I wonder if it is emotional enough. Best, |
Thank you for the notice. Sometimes what you see depends upon where you are.
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Thursday, December 2, 2010 Loses 20 Pounds and Has Better relationships Hello Ed, During the last Tribe meeting, I took the hot seat about a friend of mine who had moved away to Las Vegas to be close to her sisters. She would always ask for money or she would try to get me to buy her things. She would call me and asked why I hadn't called her. I felt guilty and during role-play with a member of the tribe I expressed that guilt as a nauseated feeling. I really just wanted to be rid of her. Later, she called me and told me she was moving back to [City] because she had been unemployed for over a year and the unemployment rate in [City 2] was the highest in the nation. She finally arrived and I saw her in mid-November. I wanted to express my feelings to her in person and not over the phone. We went out to a film she wanted to see and over dinner I expressed my sadness about not being able to share things I enjoyed with her. Whenever we went out she always dictated the movie or event because she didn't have any interest in what I wanted to do. She would tell me I could go by myself to those things. I told her this situation made me feel lonely and rejected. I told her I was going to see other women that I might have more in common with. I told her we could be just friends. She said that she would be grateful to keep me as a friend and she said that she has changed a lot since coming back to [City] and realized the true value of having friends. She said as soon as she gets settled in her new apartment she wanted to cook some meals for me. She didn't ask me for money. I felt happy and gave her a warm hug when we parted. I would like to express my appreciation to the Austin Tribe and especially to you Ed for having all of us in your home and always leading and evolving the Trading Tribe Process. The Tribe meeting series has been a great adventure in self-discovery for me. I look forward to the Trading Tribe Workshop. Lately, I have been listening to cd's on Neuro-Linguistic Programing by Charles Faulkner. He talks about setting and accomplishing goals. I strongly identify with the "away from" motivational model. This model bases motivation on moving away from things that makes a person uncomfortable or is problematic. He said that this model has it's limits because a person doesn't want to make a move until they their feelings of anxiety and stress become too great. Also, if the situation or problem goes away then so does the motivation to get things done. The Trading Tribe Process has been a great help because it has helped me feel the feelings I have been unwilling to feel. When I would experience the hot seat, the feelings were greatly amplified on whatever issues I was working on and allowed me to find the resources to deal with situations in my life - which was expressing my feelings and encouraging others to express their feelings. This process has opened my eyes on how to improve my resources to help guide myself to formulate values and use new techniques to maintain my motivation. Just an update, I am still in contact with my brother and I am planning to get together with him after the new year because the Christmas holidays are too busy. I have lost about 20 pounds and I have still NOT gone back to drinking sugar sodas. I continue to find ways to improve my diet and increase exercise. I am still working my trading program in stocks but, now I am looking to start trading futures. Ed, you occupy a special place in my heart. Thanks, |
Thank you for sharing your process. | |||
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Thursday, December 2, 2010 Wants a Mentor Mr. Seykota - I took a basic trading course ... a few years ago and have since had some success and losses in the markets. Over the past year I have been researching, learning, and gearing up for some serious trading in 2011. I found you through the book Trend Following and am intrigued by your methods and success. I will not be able to attend your seminar this weekend but would jump at any opportunity to meet with you and learn from you. How can I become a student of yours? I am serious about my trading and am prepared to take any necessary steps to enhance my life and my trading career. Your advice and response is greatly appreciated. I look forward to hearing back from you. Sincerely, |
You might consider reading through FAQ and completing the TSP exercises. | |||
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Thursday, December 2, 2010 Meds and Trackers Ed, Your experience or someone you may know well that was diagnosed with a form of skitsofrannia. You could put this on FAQ and blank the diagnosis. Ya my spelling ok . Someone has been following me for quite sometime. They have entered my vehicle and home. This part of the email if you know anything about it you could let me know at [number], their is an answering machine. Meds won't help this obviously but may give me some clue as to who is tracking me. Thanks good day Ed. |
If I hear anything, I can let you know.
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Wednesday, December 1, 2010 Trading Tribe Good Afternoon Mr. Seykota, I'm interested in joining the trading tribe and have tried to make contact with the tribe leader in [City]. It seems that his e-mail no longer exists or is inactive, I was wondering if you had his current e-mail and if I could have it. Thanks! |
Tribes come and go. From time to time, I survey the list
to cull the inactive ones. If you do not find one in your area, you might like to start one. |
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Wednesday, December 1, 2010 Workshop Essays Hi Ed, Please find my essay's for the December workshop below. I haven't yet saved up enough to attend, hopefully I will have enough by this time next year. I would appreciate your feedback on my essays, if you could spare the time. I would like to ensure my understanding of these subjects is correct. Compare the Intimacy Centric and Control Centric Relationship models A control centric relationship typically involves a person acting as a "controller" and other parties act as "receivers" Power is biased towards the controller and communication is generally in one direction only, from the controller to the receiver. There is little validation and acknowledgement of the receiver as a fellow human of equal value. A control centric relationship is typically used in a work situation where the boss is the controller and the employee's are the receivers. The control centric model requires little communication and almost no time to implement which allows things to be done relatively quickly without a lot of communication. The bond between the parties is typically loose and weak. A control centric relationship can only exist as long as both parties are willing to remain in their designated controlling and receiving roles. There is no acknowledgement of another persons feelings and an absence of communication about feelings. In an intimacy centric relationship both parties typically exchange roles in both the sending and receiving of communications in the form of feelings. This relationship has a feedback and an open communication channel. There is a balance and sharing of power. There is a validation, acknowledgement and acceptance of all parties in the intimacy centric relationship and a commitment by all to maintaining the relationship. The intimacy centric relationship is pleasant, fulfilling and typically likely to endure as all parties develop a close and intimate knowledge of each other. This bond allows the power to shift to the relative strengths of the parties involved for the benefit of all. The intimate relationship takes a long time to develop and there may be confusion in the beginning as more communication is required and it takes time for the intimate knowledge and trust to develop. The intimacy centric relationship model is simple to understand but hard to practice as it requires commitment and a willingness to share feelings. Most people have been conditioned to avoid certain feelings which then become k-nots. An intimacy centric relationship requires willingness and acceptance. There needs to be a willingness to experience one's own feelings as well as share them with others. There needs to be a willingness to receive the feelings of others. It requires acceptance of one's self and of others, the way they are and the way they are not. It requires acceptance of the world and of one's situation and of one's role in helping to create one's current situation. it requires acceptance that one is responsible for one's own feelings and actions but one is not responsible for the feelings and actions of others. An intimacy centric relationship requires staying in the present and embracing ones feelings and feelings of others as they evolve. There is no way to access past or future feelings, feelings are only generated now. Compare the causal model with the system model. Both the causal and the systems model are used in an attempt to understand the environment in which we live. The causal model is a very simplistic model that remains in existence from primitive times. The causal model has helped man's early scientific advancement. I recall learning scientific method by doing science experiment as a child. Aim: To determine if an object expands when heated. The apparatus consisted of a steel ring and a copper ball. The copper ball could just pass through the steel ring at room temperature. Method: Heat the copper ball and attempt to pass the ball through the steel ring. The ball was no longer able to pass through the steel ring. Conclusion: Objects expand when heated. Objects expand because they are heated. There is a typical example illustrating the causal model. The cause: Application of heat The effect: The ball expands in volume. The causal model is suitable for application to simple problems where there is only one cause, where the input variables in the model are independent of each other. The there is a direct link between the outcome and the cause. The causal model is simplistic and limited in it's ability to help us understand our world. The causal model is used by many politicians. These people apply the causal model in a sudo-scientific way to in-appropriate problems in an attempt to manipulate others. They propose a problem (the effect) and identify a cause to the problem. They then attempt to manipulate others by suggesting a "fix" to address the cause which they claim will prevent the problem from re-occurring. This fix will typically be their pet project. The systems model is a more appropriate model to help us understand our worlds’ more complex systems. These systems contain events that typically have many inter-related causes where the variables influence each other are not independent. The systems model helps us better understand our problem, by re-creating a mathematical model of a real world system. The system input variables can be flexed and their effect on the model outcomes noted. When the model results are comparable to the results from the real world system we are attempting to model, the system model is said to be validated. The validated system model can be used to understand what effect changing the input variables has on the system output and how changes to the variables affect the other variables in the system. In summary the systems model is more appropriate to help us mimic and understand real world systems with complex and inter-related variables. My aims: Remove myself from Debt. Learn and adapt rocks to live in intimate relationships Deal with feelings of rejection Deal with feelings of disliking authority Deal with my taking the easy route to get things done. Develop my own trading systems. (I have replicated EA crossover and the SR systems on TSP) Build up enough equity to begin trading. Support my family, including my parents and my parents in-law. Have an intimate relationship with all my family members Find the time and a ways to serve others Develop proficiency in applying the systems model to everyday problems as they arise. Avoid confusion and manipulation by others. Get a job as a trader or analyst until I am able to run my own profitable fund. Thank you and Kind Regards |
OK. |
