The Trading Tribe
(c) Ed Seykota 2003-2010 - Write for permission to reprint.
Ed Seykota's FAQ
September 1-14, 2010
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TT Workshop - Austin TX
December 3-5, 2010
Reader Says Ed Says
Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Copy Cats

I gott 'em red handed!

I stumbled across a blog the other day who “copied and pasted” some of your content and seem to be using it for their benefits!

I asked where they got the content from and they ended up taking it off!

Figured I would let you know..I spend a lot of time on the web and like to help out other reputable sites!

Is your content in house?
Thank you for the information.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Site

Ed,

Are you still operating the site?

Thanks,
Yes.
 Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Magazine Cover Indicator

Ed

When magazine covers get pretty emotional, get out of the position. There's nothing else in the magazine that works very well, but the covers are pretty good. This is not an indictment of the magazine people, it's just that at the end of a big move there is a communal psychological reaction which shows up on the covers of magazines. - Ed Seykota




Thank you for the cover.  I don't recall saying those exact words - the quote doesn't fit my grammar patterns.  I wonder if you can send me your source on it.

You might consider if you really feel the cover is emotional.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Hiring More Programmers

Dear Ed,

I hope you are enjoying life in Texas.

Following your previous comments about my "system" being different to my system, I have been busy developing a fully automated robotic platform in VB.net 2010.

I have two highly competent programmers translating my ideas into code. Its a huge project, but slowly it is all coming together. The old simulation unit which we made in 2004 has been revamped and now features one of your ideas which uses the "worst price of the day" ( or a distance in-between it and the intended trade level) to compute historical trade entries.

We have called this slippage factor, and when set to 100% it uses the worst price of the day, when set to 0% it uses the actual stop price, and most testing is done with the 100% slippage setting. The system is still making great profits in testing.

The actual trading signals however have not been changed as they work very well just as they are.

I was very annoyed by your comments initially, but after many hours of thought I realised you were right to say on Tuesday June 23rd 2009

"My sense of your "system" is that it is largely subjective and depends heavily on having you in the loop as an active element.

Your actual trading system comprises your mathematical formulas and your own emotional influences.

In this regard, you might consider finding a way to qualify the emotional component of your system."

The next algorithmic problem facing me is that there are over 2000 active instruments available to trade via my brokers, and I wish to trade no more than 100 at any given moment. The old filtering system which you saw in my video clip did not measure system performance, but ranked stocks with a score based on 15 different filters which attempted to find those best suited to my system.

The current ideas are to create 2000 sub accounts ( one per instrument ) give each instrument the same capital, and simulate through the first few months or years to find the best "system instruments" by way of how much profit they made, or use the MAR of the equity line. I recall in previous tests that the Kelly formula has many shortcomings (when used as a performance filter), as two systems with a good Kelly of 0.25 risk fraction can produce wildly different profits due to the actual frequency of the model or the magnitude of the swings. So the Kelly is a not going to be used as a performance filter.

The ideal objective is to end up with a portfolio of the 100 best system instruments from the 2000 available, or at least to have most of the best performers being traded live, while the laggards are monitored in the background. Later I have a plan to construct a league table so I can see how much each instrument changes its position in the league, it will be good news if the relative positions don't swing much.

Further complexities arise with cutting out instruments which started off well, then get worse, and vice versa. I did consider trading all 2000 instruments and the purging the weak performers (using the cash to add to the winners), but this involves cutting deal size down to tiny levels, and creates nightmares in accounting of all positions.

One huge bonus that came to light by having a sub account for each instrument is that the application of the Kelly fraction can be done without any divisions, as before I was using 0.25 / Number of positions, which was never optimal, and always K x N produced the best result in simulations, but this lead to huge leverage and too much heat. Furthermore the risk fraction would always get smaller as the stops were moved, meaning more positions would need to be added to keep the risk percent correct. Eventually the gearing would be too high and no solution for this was ever found.

Finding the huge outlier winners is a big part of my idea for this process, as there were some massive winners in testing and missing out on such moves would be detrimental to results.

After this project is completed you will again be offered a chance to add funds and benefit from it. When it is done, I will be "removed from the loop" completely so the drawdowns will be bigger, but profits will be bigger too.

Before you reply "You may want to take this to tribe"...I have raised this issue during tribe meetings, but have not yet figured out the correct algorithm for this purpose. The answer that popped into my brain was to ask Ed.

If you can point me in the right direction, I would appreciate it very much.

Regards
I wonder if you are actually trading yet.  You might consider taking our feelings about <trading> to Tribe.



Hiding Under Your Desk

is a fairly good way
to hide from your feelings.

Another good way
is to lose yourself in code.
http://ittybiz.com/entrepreneurship-
what-to-do-when-youre-scared-shtless/
Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Zombies

Hi Ed,

While I read the FAQs reguarding TTP vs Zombie drugs and also your Radial Momentum theory for explaination of lift this quote comes to mind...

"All truth goes through three steps: First it is ridiculed; Second, it is violently opposed; Finally, it is accepted as self-evident." -- Authur Schopenhauer, German philosopher

Thank you for your continuous persuit in unveiling the truth and teaching me to live in the now.
OK.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010

TTP Drives a Person to Drink

Dear Ed,

I thank you very much for the conversation today, where we talk about a person not being able to handle the feelings surging after a hotseat and getting drunk to suppress them.

Members of my Tribe know how to contact me if they need to after a hotseat. At the end of an individual TTP session on a one-to-one basis I always inform the person on the hotseat that he/she can feel very emotional or “moved” for a couple of days, and that they can call me 24/7 if they consider it necessary.

I think that this precaution can be useful to prevent people from starting drama in order to act their feelings out.

Best regards,
You can also avoid this situation by only working with people who understand the work and who are willing to work.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Big Macs and Grieving

Ed,

Ed asks if there is anyone who would like to work.  I think about several “patterns” I notice in my life over the previous few weeks and the associated feelings.  I bring this information to tribe.  My Fiancee’ comes along with me to do some shopping. 

On our way she notices a “burger” establishment and mentions she would like to get a penny pounder(or whatever they are called).  I teasingly ask if she is not aware of what is in the miniscule penny pounder.  I give her an ample supply of all the sordid facts.  It is definitely a cranial endeavor I undertake…I don’t ask her feelings. 

As I drive on by the establishment I tease her with “you really don’t want that, do you?”…and drive on by.  We find shopping not far from there and another McFondle’s is spotted…we go through the same dialogue.  She has felt the elation, the desire and the wanting need of the penny pounder coursing through her veins.  I smugly offer a bright sounding argument with lots of facts about why we don’t need to stop and drive on by. 

She goes from elation to despair, dejection and penny pounder withdrawal all in the snap of a finger.  I say nothing but I have this vision of my childhood and the feelings.  A pattern emerges in my mind of how I felt when I am in this game and that…I play this game on myself.  I think about this as I drive and I ask my Fiancee’ how she feels…she feels frustrated.  I describe the pattern from my childhood when my father would ask if I wanted something, like a toy or to stop and eat and would take me through the same emotional rollercoaster. 

I recall when I was very young my father would let me drive the truck.  Sometimes he would ask me if I wanted to drive and get me very excited about the opportunity and his favorite phrase is “sure, I will let you drive, drive your nose up my butt”.  I was 4-5 years old.  It is hard to make sense of that phrase as a young child. 

I recall some other memories when I am young specifically that any time I even felt like throwing up I was made to bend over and have a phenergan suppository inserted. 

I feel violated.  Ed describes this as essentially the same feeling as being raped in the mind of the child.  Ed says “so what”, that is what I do.  That is how I run my life.  He asks for me to get into the feeling. 

The feeling of being in control and using that control to manipulate her feelings…then to crush those feelings.  I get into the feeling and the form.  The tribe encourages me and I feel them cheering me on.  I get to a fervent intensity in the form and Ed says to freeze it, then to concentrate the feeling. 

Ed asks what I recall…a memory.  A few jagged memories flow through my mind.  I pause to catch my breath and I recall a situation with my father when I am a teenager.  I am at the barn with my father and he is hooking up the bushhog to the tractor.  I am 13 or so.  I am observing and he angrily says “are you just gonna stand there with your finger up your butt?”…I feel numb and in a state of shock. 

We do a role play of the process and I feel the feeling as I participate in the role play.  I have my hand over my abdominal area and Ed asks me what I feel after the role play.  I describe I feel like I have been hit in the stomach…lost my breath.

He asks me to get into the feeling in my midsection.  I feel the feeling intensely of the impact of his words and the feeling of losing my breath.  The tribe encourages me to get into the form.  I feel the release of everything and get into the form completely.  At the climax I hear Ed say to freeze it, then concentrate it.  He asks if I recall something after this experience. 

I immediately am 8 years old at my grandmothers home to visit.  I play with my cousins.  Someone calls for me to come around to the front of the house.  A truck is in the driveway with the tailgate down.  As I approach I notice a form lying on the tailgate.  As I get closer I see that it is my dog, “blackie”.  She is hit by a car and is covered with blood.  Her body is mangled. 

I have this dog from when I am 4 maybe.  I feel a flood of grief and emotion immediately and begin to sob uncontrollably.  I am in shock at the scene and go to my knees with my hands over my face.  I am sobbing uncontrollably and I recall my grandmother’s arm grabbing me up angrily with words of “stop that crying”, “your too old for this”. 

She shakes me till I stop crying and dry my tears.  I shut down in that moment.  It is not ok to feel this grief…this pain.  I recall becoming a zombie as my dog is buried in the garden as I watch in the pouring rain.  “Blackie” was my “field of affirmation” as another tribe member puts it.  She seemed to follow me wherever I went with a wagging tail. 

The tribe is polled for new resources…sharing my feelings with my grandmother and asking her to share her feelings.  The tribe puts a role play together.  I walk into the room as a tribe member is asking if this is anyone’s dog.  I feel I am immediately 8 years old and reliving this experience. 

I begin sobbing uncontrollably and feel the grief and pain of losing a good friend.  I immediately go to the floor in sobs.  I feel my grandmother grabbing me and yanking me up…yelling angry words to stop my crying.  I tell her how much pain I feel about my dog.  I describe how much it hurts to lose a friend. 

Her anger continues.  I continue to share my feelings of the pain and grief.  I look into her eyes and ask her if it is ok if I feel my feelings.  Eventually as I share my feelings and look into her eyes she softens.  I see the pain she carries…she holds her grief inside her whole life.  I feel sadness for her and the pain she endures. 

We replay the role play several times.  Each time I feel the grief of losing my friend as it is happening now.  I feel resolution as I go through the process.  We replay the role play and I ask her how she feels.  She describes her feelings and I ask her to share more and more.  Her fear of dying and other feelings she feels about my feelings. 

We replay the role play again using both resources and I feel very comfortable maintaining intimacy in the situation and it being ok to feel the grief and sadness of the moment.

I feel the process addresses a critical juncture in my life…a moment in time that I shut down and decide I cannot feel grief and sadness.  I notice after the meeting and following days I feel “out of sorts” and sometimes a little dizzy. 

I notice also other suppressed feelings of grief and sadness surface and I am willing to let the tears flow.  Thank you to my tribe members for their invaluable support and encouragement.     

Thank you for sharing your process.

Every Meal
is an opportunity to connect
.

http://www.chandrashealthyeating.com/benefits.html
Sunday, September 12, 2010

Magazine Covers

Hi Ed,

Belated happy birthday wishes to you and a gift of magazine covers.


June 13, 2005


September 6, 2010
Thank you for the clips.

According to this indicator, we might be nearing the lows on real estate prices.
Sunday, September 12, 2010

Wants a Workshop


Ed,

Just wanted to state my interest in attending your next workshop.  I wanted to attend the last one but scheduling just wouldn't allow it.  

Hope I and others have shown enough interest to encourage you to schedule the next meeting.
Regards,
I am planning to host a Workshop later this year in Austin, TX.  Watch this site for more details.
Sunday, September 12, 2010

Positive Intentions of Feeling Sadness

Ed,

We start the tribe meeting drumming in then have members check in on what they are feeling. Then we report about what is going on with our projects. After the last tribe meeting where a member experiences his dog dying and him not being able to express his grief about the death  this brings up feelings of sadness about my own dogs death when I was young.

The two weeks after the previous meeting I get the opportunity to experience sadness several times. I think about the previous meeting and make a conscious effort to fully feel my sadness. At work an elderly customer shows up and ask me to walk outside to look at his truck. There I see old pictures of a beautiful woman and ask him about them. He tells me the pictures are of his wife when she was young and he is preparing these for her obituary as he expects her to die any hour now.

He tears up as he is telling me how he met her, describing how he feels about her and telling of their life together. He starts crying as he is telling me this and I feel very sad and try to fight back my own tears. I notice myself attempting to modulate my feeling of sadness to keep from bawling like a little girl and embarrassing myself.

Later in the day I think about how hard I worked to control my emotion. Now at the tribe meeting while relating this story my voice starts to crack, I begin to tear up, I feel shaking and quivering in my body and I think about how I don't want to embarrass myself but let this concern go and continue with my story crying at the same time.

I feel relief. The first member on the hot seat is having trouble with feelings he has about feeling his wife's feelings. He works with these feelings and eventually accepts these and enjoys the feeling.

The next member reports on his business project. He purchased some software for his business that is not working as promised. He gets into this feeling and it takes him back to a time when he was 4. The incident he describes is extremely sad and we role play the incident back to look for new resources he can use. I am a part of the role play and I find I am able to experience my feelings of sadness and smile and enjoy them all at the same time during this.

What a change to be able to just have these feelings, experience them, cry, smile and enjoy them all at the same time. On the 3 hour drive home I put in a blues CD I made over a year ago. I only played it once all the way through because it made me sad for days after that. On this ride home I listened to it twice all the way through smiling and enjoying the feelings that come up.

My wife has ask me several times the last few days why are you smiling and in such a good mood. I reply I feel great!  After all this I notice how before I spent so much energy and attention on trying to modulate the sadness and how much I was willing to let people see that I was not aware of specific physical sensations in my body that now I can feel. Now they are interesting!
Thank you for sharing your process.
 
When You Share Your Sadness
you invite connection and comfort
.
http://are-you-for-real.com/relationships/
do-you-have-a-word-of-comfort/

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Freezing Up

Ed,

with acquaintances and friends i consider myself to be a person with pretty good "people skills". there i can make everyone laugh, people seem to like me and i can have a good time with them.
sometimes though, especially when there are many persons around that i don't know well, it feels like i have a problem to convey my normal, friendly personality. i have a tendency to "freeze up", which means i don't talk much and i start to feel like i am "out of sync" with the group, which means i don't find things funny the group finds funny. i also then feel tempted to take a position contrary to group opinion on every conversation topic.
when i have to do teamwork with many discussions with other people, it's not very nice when these feelings come up. it feels like people then start to ignore my comments on everything. for example, if i comment on a subject, that something may be the solution to something, it gets ignored. half an hour later, another participant in the discussion says the exact same thing and gets the appreciation. if i point out that i said the exact same thing it seems like nobody wants to remember. in social situations it's similar. people tend to ignore me and want to invalidate my comments. sometimes it almost feels like a conspiration of the whole group to invalidate my comments and laugh about it.
i feel also very invalidated by this and start feeling like a social outcast when this happens. even though, like i said before, most of the time i consider myself to be a person with good people skills. i want to stop these situations from happening. i wonder if you have some hints for me.
sincerely,
Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider taking your feelings about <freezing up> and <avoiding Capital letters> to Tribe.
Sunday, September 12, 2010

Snapshot Process -
Wants To Do It Right


Dear Ed,
 
I am just back from our latest meeting of the [City] TT.  I am writing to provide you with a brief update and ask a question about the Snapshots and Hardball Process.
 
In tonight's meeting we focus on Snapshots.  This is my first time going through the Snapshots and Hardball process.  The overall experience is great and full of learning as always. I get great feedback from the Tribe chief and learn to make my snapshot more specific and positive.  

In previously reading the description of the process on the TT_Process I interpret the Snapshots to be an image of the condition that I imagine in my "mind's eye".  However, when we begin at our meeting today, our Chief brings a box of Crayons and some paper and instructs that we will physically draw our snapshots.  I am surprised at this since I expect to be able to describe abstract concepts (such as feelings and tastes/scents) and also, the TT_Process instructs to "Communicate' the Snapshot, rather than to "Show it".  
 
I begin to draw as I think to myself that this will be fun.  I draw a basic picture (like one a child would draw).  The people in it are stick figures. I know I am not a good drawing artist so I have fun with it and go with the overall feeling.  

I draw myself in the center, surrounded by sun rays, ocean and blue skies.  I then add rough drawings of currency bills flowing in from the market to represent the money I make from trading.  I add words to represent the feelings of Freedom, Independence, Travel, Family, Charity, etc.

I try to sell this vision to my Chief by presenting the Snapshot but he explains that he feels it is vague, unstable, uncertain and non-specific (among other points of criticism).  I find I am concerned about criticism of my drawing skills versus what it actually represents.  I find I have doubts about the validity of this exercise.  But I listen to the feedback and keep an open mind.  I also learn from my Tribe Chief some of the types of things that make a better snapshot.  I then decide to draw a new one. 
 
I start over and this time I am able to demonstrate much more specifically what the Snapshot is.  In the second picture I am sitting in an office, relaxed with my feet on the desk and my hands behind my head.  I am watching the markets but I have a big smile on my face, no stress.  On the wall behind me is a large window through which a sunny water-front view is visible.  Next to the window is a framed photo showing a very nice and consistent equity curve showing my account being up 10 fold in 10 years.  I feel good as am learning not only to represent my snapshot in more specific terms, but also to represent abstract concepts.  This is pretty cool.  I have some more work to do, but I see lots of value in the exercise. 
 
This brings me to my question: In your experience does the Snapshot process work better if the Snapshots are physically drawn on paper versus environed in ones mind and then described?  
When Drawing on paper, how do we differentiate between a deficiency in ones Snapshot versus a deficiency in ones drawing skills?
 
Thanks as always for your guidance and support.
TTP is a set of methods and tools to help people gain more freedom of expression.  The work continues to evolve.  I have no particular recommendations on how to engineer the details of the processes.

You might consider taking your feelings about <doing it right> to Tribe.
Thursday, September 9, 2010

Hot Seat Without Words -
Gets Closer With His Wife

Dear Ed & Fellow Tribe Members,
 
I am now a member of the [City] Trading Tribe for a few months and I would like to share a recent experience with you all. 
 
A little Background:
I tend to be an analyzer.  I like to explain situations in detail (even to myself) and find myself doing this during tribe meetings.  This often happens during my Hot-Seat.  Our tribe chief and receivers notice this and encourage me to speak less and feel/experience more.  I find this difficult at times and often wonder if I am "doing this right".  I then review the process again and recall that tribe members do not need to necessarily reveal sensitive/personal information.  
 
A breakthrough?
During our last meeting I pick a personal topic for my Hot-Seat. I decide that instead of explaining the situation, I mention only that it has to do with my relationship with my wife and that there is something about which I am unhappy.  I tell the Chief that in order to avoid talking too much I would like to just feel this and develop forms.  During my hot-seat I begin to almost immediately feel a mixture of anger and sadness.  I am surprised by how quickly and decisively I feel my own emotions.  I get a clear sense that doing it this way helps me recognize my own feelings better.  I feel I have a mini-aha, but do not make much of it [yet].  But the real impact comes later.  In the coming weeks I notice a definite change in my behavior and state of mind.  First I begin to notice that in having recognized the emotions I am now about to more readily express them to my wife.  I am more assertive.  I also notice that I am finding more healthy outlets for my needs / dissatisfaction;  instead of using unhealthy ways to find relief I now more readily express them to my wife and this aspect of our relationship gets better.
 
It has now been about a month and I am happy to report that the positive difference is noticeable in my marriage.  I intend to continue to apply this to other areas of my life.  
 
Thank you for your support!
Thank you for sharing your process.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Tribe Report - Learning to Share Feelings 

Dear Ed,

At the Austin Tribe one tribe member explores issues with relationships. The process manager and the tribe work with him as he links events together and recognizes the pattern that is playing out in his life. He uses the resources of saying how he feels and asking the other person how they feel. Tribe members assist in the role playing, and he applies the new resources to the events happening in his life now. (It’s all happening now.) And he gets different results. All the members of the tribe can relate to various parts of his experiences. There seems to be a universal connection to things that are most personal. What is most personal appears to be most universal. I and other members of the tribe, perhaps all members of the tribe, feel his sadness and his joy as he goes through his process. During checkout, the tribe members express how they connect with the tribe member’s processes. I am thankful for the tribe member’s willingness to share his process.

Another tribe member takes the hot seat. His entry point is the schooling and education of his children. It’s soon discovered that his real issue is simply feeling.

I’m becoming increasingly convinced that life is just one big entry point.

The process manager, with the support of the tribe, works with him, and he begins to feel. Initially he is cut off from his feelings. The process manager does a lot of willingness testing and the tribe member on the hot seat begins feeling. The process manager and tribe encourage him to do more of his forms, and he starts feeling more and more. I notice how the process manager is fully committed and continually tests for willingness on the part of the hot seat tribe member.

As the tribe member on the hot seat feels more and more and the judgment of feeling lifts from him, he appears to undergo some type of rebirthing experience in the sense of being connected with his feelings. Once the judgment against feeling is lifted, he starts accepting all different kinds of feelings ranging from joy with tingling in his finger tips to feelings that take the form of throwing up. He gets really comfortable with all his feelings, even the feeling of throwing up. He accepts that all his feelings are just feelings, and he is open to feeling them.

I learn more about the importance of having willingness to feel, willingness to share, and willingness to ask for help from both hot-seat tribe members. I am thankful for them demonstrating such courage in sharing their processes. I’m thankful for the process manager for his commitment to help fellow tribe members.

Thank you for sharing your process.
Thursday, September 9, 2010

Time Constants

Hi Ed,

I work on modelling the milk glass game in excel.

I have a lot of trouble understanding the "Time Constant." 

The time constant in your example is 2 seconds.

At first I think the time constant is the time it takes to fill the glass.

I notice this assumption is wrong, as it takes approximately 9 seconds for the level to get to 0.99 of a cup in your example.

I do not understand where the 2 seconds comes from?

I do not understand how to obtain or guess this figure?

I read Nick Louca's paper.

Nick's example explains

"Some system builders who are familiar with this type of structure may condense the policy and valve function into one shorthand variable, the Time Constant."

Nick also states: "the Time Constant is the reciprocal of the gain" and gives a figure of 0.632 sec as the time constant of the verified system.

Nick explains that the time constant is a convenient shorthand substitute for the control policy and it is 2/3 of the time taken to travel towards the target.

Is the time constant as simple as estimating 2/3 of the time taken to travel towards the target?

Is the 2 seconds just a rough approximation used in order to construct the excel model?

Am I correct in thinking that Nick's 0.632 sec as the actual time constant in the verified model and that this replaces the 2 seconds time constant in the initial unverified model?

I find some information on time constants on the web. It’s heavy on theory and mathematics and I gain no understanding.

Are you able to provide a simple explanation please. 

Kind Regards

In physics and engineering, the Time Constant, usually the Greek letter, τ (tau), indicates the "rise time" of an exponential system.

In particular, the output of a system tracks the goal by moving about 2/3 of the way toward the goal every tau.

You might consider taking your feelings of confusion to Tribe as an entry point.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010 

Starting a Fund

Dear All,
 
thanks for being there, willing to support me on my journey.  It is a year of changes as I have moved home and I am moving closer to build and manage my own Company.
 
So far I recall having checked:
*) South-East Asia as potential fund location. I think Europe is better. 
*) part of the set-up costs. 
*) cost of live data providers.
Now, I like to write down a detailed business plan
 
I recall having done a lot of research on my main System:
*) It looks that a Dynamic Trend-Trading system is much better than a Static Diversified Trend-Following, as long as there is a sufficient number of tradable instruments.


Ed, I can relate a lot with your contributions on your website.

*) I have built a software to create back-adjusted intra-market Futures spreads. I need to do further checking on the logic. I think may be useful for a dynamic portfolio.
*) I have tested a lot of short term patterns (less than 5 days). It seems that they become not profitable for slippage higher than 12%. 
*) Despite plenty of literature and articles, any risk rebalancing (risk modification) method I have tried is ruining the performance of a long-term trend system rather than improving it.
It looks odd as many people suggest to reduce posizion sizing when volatility rise.
  
I now wonder if it is useful and possible to utilize System Dynamics technology (e.g. Stella) to get better insights on how a Trading Systems work by modelling it.

Truly,

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sometimes endless design refinements can provide a way to avoid trading at all.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Tribe Meeting - Dealing with Unwillingness

Dear Ed and Austin Tribe,

At the Austin Tribe meeting, I am the process manager for someone who is not connected emotionally. During the process of his hot seat, I notice I have a feeling of being stuck, and that I’m going into my “being stuck” form. I continue to manage his process and solicit the help of the tribe. Nothing seems to work. I notice that I’m wanting him to express willingness, to be willing. I notice that that is what I want, and that what I want doesn’t really matter for his hot seat. We continue to do willingness testing with him, and he remains unwilling and/or unable to feel. The tribe member on the hot seat agrees with the Tribe to leave the Tribe. We have a final check out. I gain a deeper understanding of the importance of willingness testing, and that there is no TTP where there is no willingness to feel.

We take a short break and another tribe member takes the hot seat. He goes through his forms and gives us the scenarios for role playing. This time, I play the role of the friend and classmate now toward playground bully in a fellow tribe member’s process. I sit on the tribe member and hold his arms down. What happens next is a bit of a blur for me. I’m not certain of the chronology of the events that unfold. What follows is my best effort to relay the events.

I’m sitting on him. I’m not putting all my weight on his arms, and I’m not putting all my weight on his stomach. I’m afraid that I might hurt him if I put all my weight on him. I want to put just enough weight on his stomach and arms as to simulate the playground wrestling experience. I distribute a lot of my weight to my arms and finger tips so that I do not injure my fellow Tribe member. I’m worried that I might hurt him, and I feel scared. My arms and fingers are hurting. I can’t support my all my weight on just my finger tips. More of my weight is now on my tribe member and he goes deeper into his process. The added weight seems to aid in authenticating the process. Most of my weight is still on my arms. The muscles in my arms are burning now. More of my weight shifts to my tribe member’s stomach and arms. I’m spitting and sucking up the spit. The tribe member I’m sitting on releases a sudden burst of strength and pushes up. I’m now catapulted through the air flying over my tribe member’s head.

Now I’m no longer holding my tribe member on the ground but am on the ground next to his side. He is asking why I hurt him, why I held him down. I don’t know. The intimacy intensifies. Now the tribe member asks me how I’m feeling. I LOOK AWAY and say that I feel sad. The tribe member tells me that he doesn’t feel that from me. He doesn’t feel my sadness.

He is right. I realize that I’m THINKING about how I think that I am supposed to feel in this moment. I am not focused on my feelings. I am focused on thinking about my feelings. I realize that for me to be fully present in the process, I have to simply FEEL and not think about how I think I “should” feel.

I realize that for me to fully support my tribe member, I must be fully present. I’m physically hurting right now. I say to myself, “I have to just go for it and feel. I have to be here now…it’s time to go down the rabbit hole.” I now LOOK IN HIS EYES and feel. There in that moment of eye contact is intimacy and the feelings of sadness rush over me. I feel incredible sad and start to cry. I feel sad in my heart. I hurt my friend and classmate.

I say, “I feel sad.”  I offer to switch roles with my friend, and say that he can do to me what I did to him. He says that the offer helps but that he does not want to do that, and adds again that the offer does help. He asks me why I do what I do to him. I answer but don’t really know what I’m saying or what is going on. Things are blurry. He says he knows why I do what I do to him. He says that he makes me do what I do to him. I feel flush. There is a rush of tingling from my stomach/chest up through my face. I say, “Yes, you make me do it. I’m half your size and there’s no way I can wrestle you to the ground and hold you down. You can throw me off of you whenever you want to.”

He accepts responsibility for his role in the process and asks me how I feel, and tells me how he feels. He gets complete on that process and moves on to another process.

I notice a virtuous reinforcing feedback loop of willingness connecting all the tribe members. Increasing willingness from any member promotes more willingness: the more I feel, the more I’m willing to feel, the more I’m willing to feel, the more I feel. Being intimate is being willing; being willing is being intimate. And both willingness and intimacy require feeling. I feel connected with my tribe member. I feel connected.

I’m sitting in my office typing this FAQ. I notice the same feeling of being present with my fellow tribe member in his process. It is a warm feeling in my chest. I welcome the feeling.

I am thankful to the Tribe for this experience. Being part of this process encourages me to address my feeling of "being stuck."

I take my feeling of "being stuck" to our local Tribe and take the hot seat. The form I have for being stuck is with my elbows pinned to my side and my hands out in front of me with my fingers extended. The process manager and the Tribe give me relentless validation and I go deeper into the feeling. I'm young, I can't yet talk. I open my mouth but nothing comes out. I just freeze up. I don't know what is going on. I don't know where I am and I can't talk. The process manager supports me in continuing the process. I can't seem to locate a specific event. The process manager stays with me and I go deeper. The form is me with my arms by my side and there is a tightness pushing my arms in at the elbows. I'm being lifted in the air and shaken.

It is April 2009. I'm in my son's room with my son who is 3-1/2 years old. I'm angry and I pick him up in air and hold him by his arms at the elbows. He looks at me laughing. He must think I'm playing. I feel like shaking him, but I don't. I very gently set him down on the floor where he continues playing. I turn and hit the wall with an open hand. I have anger inside me and I don't know why, and I am so scared that I might hurt my son. I leave the room with him laughing and playing on the floor. I am scared and don't want to ever hurt my son. I don't believe in corporal punishment and have never spanked or hit my son. I make a decision to get some help with my feelings. I attend the April 2009 TTP workshop in Reno.

I continue the hot seat and make the connection that the way my father is holding me is the exact same way that I hold my son in his room. This is the form and the feelings are intense. The process manager encourages me and I go back into the form and really crank it up.

My father is violently shaking me as he holds me in the air with my arms pinned to my side. I can't do anything. This is me, the victim. This is me doing nothing. This is me accepting abuse. This is me inviting abuse. I have to do something. I'm no longer OK with being a victim. I'm no longer OK being the family's designated hitter (the receiver of my father's rage).

I decide to do something. The only thing I can do is wiggle my fingers, so I decide to be the best finger wiggler that I can be. I wiggle my fingers. I can't yet talk, but I can wiggle my fingers. I am wiggling my fingers as best I can and am beginning to enjoy the feeling. I can do something. I now turn my hand palm facing up and raise my middle finger in the air. I find a way to tell my father I don't like what he is doing to me. I give him the finger. I then stick out my tongue at him, and make a face. I can do something letting him know that I don't like what he is doing.

The Tribe encourages me. I am able to express how I feel even though it's pre-vocal. I'm sticking out my tongue, making a face, and giving him the finger. I accept responsibility for being a victim of my father's abuse. I am no longer a victim.

I continue the process and add resources of communicating feelings verbally. This helps.

During the next few days, I'm a bit out of sorts. Then, I have a series of major breakthroughs in my work and in my relationships. Whenever I have the feeling of being stuck, I welcome it and acknowledge the positive intent of "feeling stuck" is to motivate me to do something.

My wife is in our Tribe and she supports me in my processes. She sees my willingness and she does TTP with me. She also has major, major breakthroughs. I ask her if she might consider sharing her experience in FAQ.

The Tribe member in Austin that leaves the tribe helps me see the importance of feeling and willingness. The Tribe member in Austin that is my wrestling partner provides me with an example of willingness that helps me go deeper into my own feelings and get completion. My process encourages my wife to increase her willingness and she goes deeper into her feelings and gets completion.

I thank Ed and all the members of the Austin Tribe and my local Tribe for their support.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 
TTP Works Better, Perhaps Only
with willing subjects
http://www.imitationpickles.org/campaign/index.php?_fa=viewpage&id=scandals
Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Reconnecting With Brother

Hello Ed,
 
I attend the Austin Trading Tribe. The first tribe member who took the "hot seat" related two circumstances from his past and another that is more current. In the first one, he related an incident from his youth regarding a dog he found and brought home. The dog was his best friend. Later the dog was hit by a truck and the tribe member remembers getting upset and dropping to the ground crying about his dead friend. His grandmother became angry and pulled him up from the ground and told him to stop crying. She said he shouldn't show such feelings so he shut down his emotions.

During the role-play with another tribesman, he used a different resource. When his grandmother told him to stop crying he looked her straight in the eye and told her he couldn't help but feel his feelings. He asked her how she felt and she said she felt embarrassed by the incident. I can relate to this situation because there were times in my life when my mother would tell me to stop crying and I would shut down. The intimacy-centric approach would have allowed me to stand up for his feelings and express them.
 
The next circumstance he related was about a time when he was in the barn with his father. His father was working on a tractor and was having difficulty repairing it. He became angry with his son for not helping and yelled at him that he was "standing there with his finger up his butt". The tribe member remembers shutting down and his hurt feelings. During the role-play with another tribe member he relates to his father that he feels sad he can't help him because he doesn't know what to do. Then his father's anger dissolves into recognition that he hadn't told his son how to help him and he apologizes and he tells him what he needs for him to do. I can understand this instance because there were times when I would work with my father on a project and he would yell at me for not doing something to help. My usual way of coping would have been to shut down and feel sad. However, the sharing of feelings would've allowed me to communicate better with my dad and allowed for a more intimate relationship that I wished I had with him.
 
The tribe member told us about a third instance in which his fiance would ask if they could go eat at a fast food restaurant while they were out driving in the city. He didn't want fast food because they were trying to eat a more "healthy" diet. As they would drive by the fast food places, he would point them out and then keep on driving and not stop. However, during the role-play, his fiance stated exactly what she wanted- "a quarter pound hamburger". He then stopped at the first hamburger place he came to. I can remember ignoring my girlfriend's hints and I also remember those who told me what they wanted because I usually went along with the request in acknowledgment of their feelings.
 
Another tribe member took the "hot seat", he said that his wife shuts him down when he brings up the issue of home schooling their children. She doesn't like the idea and prefers that the children go to public school and doesn't want him  mentioning this issue in front of them. The tribe member seemed to be avoiding expressing his feelings to his wife and children. He gets into the feels he has about this issue and gets into the feelings he doesn't want to feel. He has strong physical reactions such as nausea and a tingling sensation.Next, he starts to smile while he has these intense feelings and actually enjoys these emotions. After I left the tribe meeting, I made it my intention to feel the feelings I didn't want to feel. These feelings were intense and I began to notice the ways I tried to medicate my feelings to keep them at bay. I began to get rid of some of these "medications" such as fast food and old clutter such as magazines that I no longer read. When I try to do away with some of these things I notice the serious feelings I have tied into them and I sit still and experience those feelings. After these experiences, I have noticed some of the things in my life have become clearer and my intention to get things done has become more sharply defined.
 
Lastly, my brother and I are finally going to see each other after several years. We have been trying to settle on a meeting place in Austin before my Tribe Meeting. The difficulty has been to find a place suitable since he lives in North Austin and my Tribe meeting is in South Austin. He have suggested a place in between and I immediately agreed. I look forward to it.
 
Thanks,
Thank you for the report and for sharing your process.
 
Brothers
have unique opportunities to connect
.
http://www.danzfamily.com/archives/2007/03/
Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Differentials

Dear Mr. Ed Seykota,

I hope you are well. As I mentioned a while ago, I have been researching a way to define trends.

IIn the Trends section of the Trading System Project, the process used to obtain the daily rate of change is essentially the same as the Resistor-Capacitor differentiator circuit. This circuit consists of a capacitor C and a resistor R connected in series, having time constant R*C. If we apply an electrical signal (Vin) across the circuit, the voltage that accumulates in the capacitor represents the exponential lag and the voltage across the resistor is Vr = R*C*dVin/dt. The voltage Vr represents the rate of change of the input amplified by the Gain, which equals the time constant of the circuit (Gain = R*C). To normalize Vr, we divide its value by the Gain and we obtain the rate of change of Vin when the circuit is in the steady state.

For now, let’s imagine that we have an RC circuit that can operate with dollars, a capacitor that can accumulate dollars and a resistor that can resist to the flow of dollars in and out of the capacitor.

In the example in the Trends section, applying to the RC circuit a step from 10$ to 20$ causes a transient. As the price accumulates in the capacitor the exponential lag approaches 20$ and the price across the resistor gradually approaches 0. If the stock continues to rise from 20$ to 30$ to 40$ and so on, the RC circuit gradually enters the steady state, the normalized output of the differentiator (the rate of change of the input) reaches a constant value and the trend presents itself.

Figure 1(a) illustrates an example where the closing price of a stock trends at 1$/day. RC circuits with different time constants track the closing price. Figure 1(b) shows the responses of the differentiators and figure 1(c) shows the normalized output of the differentiators (rate of change). We can observe that the system with time constant 3 reaches the steady quickly and tracks the price well. Systems with longer time constants (20 and 100) remained in the transient state throughout the trend and did not track the price well.

To my knowledge, it is almost impossible to find an RC system with a time constant that tracks the markets exactly in the steady state. One exception occurs when a market locks limit up or down for several days.

Here the tool for measuring the rate of change of the price is the RC differentiator. The minimum time constant we may use with this tool is 1, which may be used to define noise. For example, if we track the price P with time constant 200, then the associated noise is [dP/dt]/[time constant] = [dP/dt]/200 = [Today's Close - Yesterday's Close]/200.

Figure 2(a) is a screenshot of the application I am prototyping. It illustrates the Cocoa continuous future contract (daily chart) and the exponential lag with time constant 650. The plot on the right side illustrates the daily rate of change (cyan line) and the associated noise (black lines). If we decrease gradually the time constant (figures 2(b), (c)) we observe that the [daily rate of change]/[noise] ratio becomes smaller. In a way this is similar to the term ‘signal to noise ratio’ used in engineering. As we decrease the time constant, the [daily rate of change]/[noise] ratio drops and it becomes harder to distinguish the signal from noise, but at the same time the system tracks the price more closely and occasionally may approach the steady state.

We may be able to find, in a given period, an optimal time constant that maximizes the signal to noise ratio while at the same keeps the RC circuit as close as possible to the steady state.

In figure 3 for example, the trend was up and the RC circuit with time constant 17 tracked the price better than circuits with shorter or longer time constants. We can also see how the optimal exponential lag may be used as an exit stop when the price closes below the lag. When we use the daily chart and try to track long term trends, the aforementioned method may not work directly.

However, 'Once the system establishes the long-term trend, it does not need daily re-confirmation of that trend.' Ed Seykota, Tuesday, March 9, 2010.

Therefore, for long term trends we may switch to the weekly, monthly, 11-day or any other n-day chart and then seek the optimal time constant in order to determine the trend. In figure 4(a) is shown again the Cocoa future contract on the 17-day chart. For this period, the optimal time constant that tracks the price better is 27 and the trend is down. This is the same as tracking the price with time constant 17*27 = 459 in the daily chart. Within the same period, we may also observe shorter term trends using the daily chart. For example, in figure 4(b) is shown a short term trend that is also down and it is tracked better with time constant 9.

As you may have noticed, the Y-axes in the future charts have title 'Value per contract'. Because ultimately we want to hold a portfolio with several instruments, there is need to normalize the future contracts (because they have different specifications) and stocks (because they have different price levels) so that the system can compare trends across various instruments.

When we buy a stock, money leaves the account because we invest in that stock. Let’s assume that there are two stocks, 'X' at price 1000$ and 'Y' at price 100$ and both start to trend at 10$/day. If we buy stock 'X' at price 1020$, then the daily rate of change basis time constant 1, per invested dollar is 10$/day/1020$ = 0.0098/day. However if we buy stock 'Y' at price 120$ then the daily rate of change per invested dollar is 10$/day/120$ = 0.083/day, which is ~8.5 times bigger compared to stock 'X'.

Because futures are quoted in different units, in the attached charts I have converted the contract's native units to $ value per contract. This was done by multiplying each open, high, low and close in the time series of the continuous contract by the fraction: [TickValue specified for the contract]/[MinimumTick specified for the contract]. When we initiate a position with a future contract, dollars leave the account to cover the initial margin and we must always set aside money to cover the overnight maintenance margin. Therefore, when we open a position we invest an amount equal to the initial plus the overnight maintenance margin.

In figure 5 are plotted the daily rates of change basis time constant 200 for the Cocoa, Eurodollar and S&P continuous future contracts. Each time series has been converted to $ value per contract and has been divided with the margin (initial + overnight maintenance) requirements of the associated contract. We can see how the time series can be plotted together because now they have the same units. Therefore, we can compare trends across various contracts. This may provide a complementary way to select which instruments to include in a portfolio and how to allocate the available capital in a trading account across various positions.

I believe that I have made progress and that the method described above to define trends is ok, but it needs further work. I am currently trying to turn this research into an automated system that will trade with the trends.

Thank you for your time.

Sincerely,

You might notice that in practice you cannot extract a differential or determine the exact value of a trend.

The real-world process of differntiation measures the difference between two integrals. The process of integration induces the delay.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Tribe Meeting Report - Sadness


Ed,

We check in and ask if anyone has issues they want to work on. The first person on the hot seat starts and notices a pain in his stomach. As he intensifies this pain he is reminded of a time when he was young and a truck pulls up in the driveway. The tailgate is down and the driver ask if anyone knows whose dog is on the tailgate that has been run over by a car.

The member on the hotseat recognizes that it is his dog and collapses on the ground crying. His grandmother yanks him up off the ground and scolds him for crying. The tribe role-plays this incident and offers two new resources he can use at times like this.

He replays the incident with the new resources and finds he has new power in this situation this time. This hot seat brings up incredible sadness in me as I remember when my dog died when I was young.

The next person to take the hot seat does not like it when he suggests different school choices for his son and his wife does not agree. She don't even want to hear it so he does not express his feelings about school to either his wife or his son. He works for awhile to express his feelings to the tribe but is not able to.

After awhile he finally gets in touch with his feelings and the process manager leads him deeper into his feelings encouraging him to feel those feelings he did not want to feel and then to smile and enjoy them at the same time.

He was able to do this after awhile and finally ended the hot seat looking more alive with a look of sheer joy on his face. This gives me new ways to feel and express my feelings that I may first judge as unwanted, bad or undesirable. I can smile and actually enjoy feeling them. I am amazed how well this seems to work for him.
Thank you for sharing your process.
 
When You Share Your Sadness
you invite connection and comfort
.
http://www.ics.uci.edu/~eppstein/pix/
t6bd/LynnComfortingAaron.html
Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Trading Systems Project

Good Day Ed,

Using C++,
gnuplot and the R Project, I have reproduced the results for the Trading Systems Project exercises: 
1)  A Simple Exponential Crossover System and
2)  A Simple Support and Resistance System.
Congratulations !

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Tribe Write-Up - Teasing

 

Ed,

I feel tired at the start of the meeting and am worried that I won’t be able to pay attention. 

 

A tribe member has an issue about teasing and then not following through on something.  As we go through the process Ed recognizes that the behavior is about deception, about leading a person to believe one thing only to deny them at the last minute. 

Ed is very careful here to assure that the member is not just teasing the rest of us.  He makes sure that the member is willing to participate and not just going to build us up and then stop.  Ed notes that processes that deal with deception have to be monitored carefully to make sure the tribe isn’t being deceived.

I am intrigued because during the middle of one role play Ed seems to shift gears and ask the hotseat to tell him where he feels it.  The hotseat develops another form and we process that one then go back to the original.  This shift seemed to be the element that really opened everything up and allowed the hotseat to truly experience his feeling.  I tell Ed that I wonder how he knew to do this.  I feel surprise when he says it was just a feeling that he got, a feeling that there was something deeper there.  I feel a similar way, but had I been managing the process I would have just wrapped up the role play and assumed it was all done. 

I feel shame about the answer.  I expect a rules based response, an if this then do that type of response.  I stop for a minute and experience that feeling.  I obtain wisdom.  It is okay to use your gut and take action from that.  I experience the shame and feel acceptance instead.

Thanks Ed for providing the space to gain wisdom.

Thank you for your report.

 
In Tribe and in Life

y
ou might do well
to determine the other guy's motives.
http:http://festivals.iloveindia.com/friendship-day/friendship-betrayal.html

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Tribe Write-Up - Exclusion

Ed,

The Tribe Meeting is interesting tonight.  We go through our projects and discuss the mock evidence for completeness we have brought in.  I find it very interesting to note how many people have trouble coming up with documentation that the rest of the tribe thinks actually proves they have met their goal.  A couple of people do succeed in getting all members of the tribe to give them a pass on their documentation.  It is interesting to me that those members who got all passes seem to have the simplest documentation of all.  I realize that clarity of purpose seems to breed simplicity of proof.  The more clear the goal, the more clear the purpose the easier it is to define what success is.

Tonight we all also go through a process or rather try to.  The person who went through the process seemed to not be making a connection to any feeling throughout the evening.  Despite numerous attempts to generate forms or role play I felt a lack of real connection.  There was no feeling.   It became clear to the tribe that this person is not willing or able to feel.  He wants to think and reason.   He can analyze and imitate some of the motions, but he was unable to feel. 

The Tribe asks him to leave.  At first I feel surprised by this development, but after a while I realize that this was all of our intention.  This person was looking for a chance to be left out and passed over (that’s what his process was about).  He get’s what he wants.  This was the rest of our intention as well.  Maybe we needed to feel saying goodbye or something else.

Thank you for your report.
 

In Tribe and in Life

some are innies
and some are outies.
http://finemessblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/innies-outies-and-flatties.html
Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Wants Book and Tribe

Hi,

I have read The Trading Tribe web site and have to say it is wonderful, I am a mechanical Forex intra-day trader and I trade 2 systems I have developed over the past 18 months based on volatility breakouts and am looking to develop a mid-long term trend following system to compliment these. 
I am interested in 2 things, firstly is the Trading Tribe book still available and where is the best place to order it? It seemed on amazon there were only second hand copies copies selling for over $300?

Secondly I am very interested in joining/setting up a Trading Tribe group in Moscow and would appreciate any advice / suggestions? I am English but currently (for 2 years now) living with my wife and child in Moscow, my wife is currently visiting friends in New York so if I could buy and get the booked shipped to her there in this time frame that would be great?

I would like to know if you have any Workshops in Europe?

Thanks,
You can order the book through this site.

You can register your Tribe on this site.

If you would like some hands-on experience, you might consider attending a Workshop.
Monday, September 6, 2010 12:01 AM

Deeper Into Intimacy

Dear Ed,
 
We complete our Austin Tribe meeting.  A tribe member on the hot seat has an issue with his girlfriend.  He tells of several experiences during his youth, two with his father and one with his grandmother.  During the role play, he was unable to convey his feelings nor to ask about their feelings.  With the assistance of several tribe members thru role play, he sees a family pattern and history of yelling to cover up their feelings.  By accepting his feelings and asking about their feelings, his girlfriend's issue goes away.  
 
By our fellow tribe member making eye contact with both his father and grandmother and making them look him in the eye, there was a new dynamic in their relationship.  Two items impact me directly: (1) eye contact allows space for intimacy to occur and (2) asking if you are willing to let me feel my feelings leads to my asking about your feelings and opens the door to intimacy.  I implement this in my relationships with my wife and those that I meet and I experience a deeper level of emotional intimacy.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Friday, September 3, 2010

Universities

I am talking with a friend, he studies economics engineering. He tells me that at the University they do not learn the basics like the Kelly formula. Instead, they learn the random walk model and portfolio management according to Markowitz and the GARCH model. I mention that, at the Medical Faculty, we also learn Freud and the usefulness of psychopharmaceuticals.

I start wondering about the usefulness of Universities...

Best regards,
Thank you for sharing your process.
Friday, September 3, 2010

From Control to Intimacy

Ed,

I have not seen my children for a couple of days. As I see them, my daughter asks me how I am doing now. I can feel her sincere interest on me. My son says “Dad, how are your projects doing, your band, the Tribe?”. Each time when he sees me he asks me “how are you doing?”. It is not a stereotype question: I feel that he really means it and wants to know about me. Somehow, he is learning to receive.

I recall these children one year ago, telling me that they are afraid of me.

I remember my first snapshot, “I have a better relationship with my son”.

I give myself this beautiful “pass”.

I am aware of the work in front of me. I keep on taking care of the garden and support the flowers perfuming the air.

Thank you for sharing your process.
Thursday, September 2, 2010

Gets His Wish

Ed,

I am notifying you that I will not be able to participate in the remaining four sessions of the Austin tribe because I have received and accepted a new assignment at my employer’s head office in The Hague, The Netherlands.  My new assignment comes into effect immediately and I am going over there this weekend.

About three weeks ago I turned down an earlier version of this job offer because of unfavorable tax treatment. To my pleasant surprise, this week I received a modified version of the job offer that is now tax neutral for me.

I am deeply grateful to you for having accepted me into your tribe and I leave it with a firm understanding and appreciation of the powerful TTP technology and the importance of living in the intimacy-centric model.

Thanks also for guiding me to complete my project.  Based on my self-assessment and the feedback I received at last week’s session, I think I have almost completed my project.

I wish you the best with your project.

Gratefully and Sincerely,

Congratulations !
Thursday, September 2, 2010

From Day Trading to Trend Following

Hello,

I am a trader at a Chicago Prop firm.  I have traded for 10 yrs, largely in a market making and spread world, focused on US Treasuries, Eurodollars and some Equities.  I am transitioning from day trading and scalping to a more momentum and trend following system.  I have read a lot about Ed and his followers and would like to learn more.  I am looking for some direction and leadership as I expand my time frame and understand who trends initiate and continue.

Thanks,
You might consider reading through FAQ, reading my book and attending the next Workshop.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Starting Up

Dear Tribe,

I am struggling to stick with my plan to set up a trend trading system. As I say this I try to enjoy the feeling of blocking myself! It doesn’t feel so great, but at least I can feel the blockage, and it seems to emanate from some tightness in my abdomen, and there is tightness in my chest too.

After completing a careful reading of Pardo’s EOTS ed. 2, instead of taking the next step and trying to decide about a trading system development platform, I allowed myself to be consumed with running my advisory business. As I have a fiduciary obligation to my clients this is not a difficult choice. They come first.  

I have registered a tribe but have no members yet other than myself. I am pretty sure Ed might tell me to meet with myself to discuss this lack of membership!

I had a special birthday yesterday and my family put on quite a feast. It was heartwarming and made turning 53 feel okay. I am so lucky to have such a nice family that is healthy and cares about things like birthdays, schoolwork, music, football games, and quality of life.

TTP and the TTP Workshop have helped me in many ways. Ed’s illustration of the quadrants was a fantastic metaphor and I use it all the time now for myself and clients. Thank you Ed!

I’m not trading now yet I am investing. I don’t trade after reading Pardo because I feel foolish doing so without being systematic about it. I learn how haphazard my personal investment decisions once were. I did not treat my client assets like I did my own. Today I allow myself a rational investment plan, that I once had, but someone how abandoned and took leave of my senses in 2008.

I rationalize my advisory practice by adopting an approach that is in what I’ll call Ed’s Northwest Quadrant I, Boring and profitable. I accept that I did not know this simple rule before the workshop and it cost me plenty. We get what we intend! I cannot fathom my intensions then, but they certainly feel different now.

Charles Faulkner gave me some solid advice regarding how to set aside time to think about my system building. I have not acted on his advice and the result is predictable. I accept that I have limited time each day and there are constant trade-offs. I don’t give up but my head hurts sometimes as I reconcile these conflicting objectives of trading actively myself, and actively managing passive indexes for my clients. Again, I am bound to put my clients first.

Our 14 year old son (now 15) went off to “adventure camp” last July and returned early with a broken scapula after wrecking a mountain bike. Life on life’s terms can be frightening. I am thankful he makes a full recovery and learned something about his vulnerabilities.

I have a prospective client coming in 8 minutes or so and I am enormously grateful that I went to Trading Tribe Sticking with your System Workshop. It has grounded me like no other workshop I can think of and it is helping me grow my practice. In my heart I believe I will get to the successful trend trading system that is my commitment. I allow myself some time. The pit in my stomach has left me and my chest is no longer tight. Writing to all of you has helped me and I thank you all for supporting me in my commitment, as I support you. 

Best wishes,

Thank you for sharing your process.