The Trading Tribe
(c) Ed Seykota 2003-2011 - Write for permission to reprint.
Ed Seykota's FAQ
Readers Say Ed Says
Sunday, March 20, 2011

The Slice Method - Understanding His Mother

Dear Ed,

For the last tribe meeting, each tribe member writes an essay of how a pendulum works. I find it difficult to describe the pendulum.

I realize, after listening all the essays, that we can divide the explanation in slices of time. We can explain how the pendulum works describing how the elements (string, bob, etc) interact on different intervals of time.

This is an excellent way to describe how things work. We avoid using causes and effects in the explanation. Each slice of time is independent of each other.

Last meeting you share with the tribe a video that you prepare for your daughter some time ago. Thank you for sharing the video. I find it very emotive.

I do not have kids. However, I am starting to realize how important kids are in people´s life. During the weekend, I visit my sister who has two kids. I feel surprise when both kids run toward me to hug me. They both seem very happy to see me. I enjoy playing with them. My little niece likes to play “The restaurant”. I am one of her customers. My nephew likes to go fishing. I hope we catch some big fish soon.

A tribe member takes to the hot seat his issue of “feeling stupid”. We talk about the positive intentions of “feeling stupid”. One of the positive intentions is quality control.

Hot seat recalls an event where he is helping his father who is drilling holes in the wall. Hot seat carries a heavy vacuum cleaner to clean up the dust. Hot seat has difficulty carrying the vacuum cleaner. The father yells to hot seat and tells him that he is not good enough to help with the task. Hot seat shuts down. He does not feel anything.

Hot seat realizes that the rock donor is the mother. We start to role play. Hot seat plays his original role. Then, he observes another tribe member plays his role. Tribe member shuts down like the original hot seat. However, on the next role play, tribe member makes eye contact with the father and expresses his feelings.

The father stops the yelling and teaches the son how to do a better job. Then the mother shows up. The mother tries to persuade tribe member to return to his original pattern of shutting down.

He establishes rapport with the mother. The mother expresses her concerns. She wants her son to be safe. Tribe member tells the mother that he is ok, and that he has a new way to relate with his father.

In the rock process, hot seat does not forgive the father or the mother.

Hot seat forgives the rock.

Finally, original hot seat takes his role. He makes eye contact with his father and expresses his feelings. When the mother shows up, hot seat establishes rapport with her. The mother expresses her concerns. Hot seat receives her. He also tells her that he has a new way to relate to his father. They hug each other.

This hot seat helps me see how parents pass on their resources. They teach us what they know and probably what they learn from their parents. However, sometimes the resources are not proactive. This hot seat also helps me to better understand my mother.

Best Regards,
Thank you for sharing your process.
Sunday, March 20, 2011

Breathwork Weekend - Menu


I know a couple of people who have hunted and trapped wild hogs for years. They say the hogs carry several diseases.
My uncle who lives in the country says they are good eating but he suggest wearing gloves when handling them and
cooking the meat very well. With a few precautions they are a good source of meat.
Thank you for sharing your information.
Sunday, March 20, 2011

What To Do When Money Arrives Between Signals

Hi Ed !

Here's an FAQ i've never seen asked...

For those of your students who have a tested, real-time, active, successful long term trend following system, explained more fully here, what does a prudent manager do when money comes in between signals.

Do we:

1. wait in cash for the next signal, which may be months away.

2. scale into the trend now.

3. something else.

I have this issue right now.

best regards,
Thank you for sharing your process.

Trend following systems generally have some or another rule for how to scale positions as a function of account equity - that follows from back-testing.

If you are a discretionary trader, I suggest thinking the issue over while doing some physical activity, such as mowing the lawn.

Mowing The Lawn

is generally more profitable
than trading without precedent.


Sunday, March 20, 2011

Practicing Conscious Fatherhood

Dear Ed and Austin Tribe:

I participate in a role play for a fellow tribe member. The member has a pattern of shutting down in situations where he is “afraid to look stupid.”

This is a significant obstacle to accomplishing his goals. The role play scenario is, as a young boy, the tribe member is helping his dad with a project around the house. His father, unhappy with the job his son is doing, is yelling at him, berating him, calling him stupid, and threatening to smack him.

I play the role of the berating father. In the drama, it is my intention to shut down the tribe member. I am successful in doing so. Playing this role I gain a perspective on the father’s behavior. When I’m yelling and berating the tribe member, I feel the intention the father is to best equip his son with skills and competence and resources to get along in life. I also feel frustrations and disappointments of the father’s own life coming out at his son.

It’s eye opening to see beyond just the surface of the father’s rough behavior towards his son. His actions are the result of intentions and feelings of his own. A degree of enlightenment and presence seems to come when, in further role play, the tribe member stays conscious through the actions of his father and is able to explore the intentions and feelings of his father.

In the causal model, if the tribe member was coming to me to tell me this story I would support him by saying how uncalled for and what jerk his dad is for doing that. Viewing this from the system model I see how that response may help the tribe member feel better about himself but it’s not going do much of anything to help the tribe member stay conscious in a situation where he’s “afraid to look stupid.”

The tribe member does an excellent job of applying his new resources. It’s not specific words he uses. It’s his intention to hear his father’s feelings that makes it work.

Later in the week, inspired by a video Ed shares with the tribe celebrating his relationship with his daughter, I take my two daughters, three and five years old, to the Lego store.

We purchase a couple fun sets and put them together having a great time just being with one another. I really appreciate the role model Ed offers as a father.

Thank you for sharing your process and your observations.
Sunday, March 20, 2011

34 Inch Waist Commitment Monthly Update

Hi All,

Things are going well. I’ve dropped 16 pounds and I’m sticking to my system pretty well, though not 100%. I am enjoying portion control a lot and feeling energetic. I do notice one pattern in my eating that comes to mind after hearing Michael Marcus speak at the Austin Tribe meeting.

Similar to experiences in trading, when I’m eating well and exercising and making a lot of progress I find myself saying, “I can afford that piece chocolate.” Then it becomes another and then the cycle repeats. Being conscious of this is helpful.

Thank you for your support.

Thank you for sharing your process and for inspiring me (and others) toward more conscious eating.
Sunday, March 20, 2011

Trading System Project

Mr. Seykota,

I am doing the Simple Exponential Crossover System trading system project. I was curious how your system reacted on 01/06/84 when the positioning size requested more shares than you could afford to buy.

Does the system just spend the full amount of the account? I am just making sure that I am processing the system correctly. I was under the assumption that the risk position size would not request more shares than the account could afford and when I ran the system in excel I found out otherwise. Also, will you be updating the trading system project in the future? I look forward to your response.

Best regards,
I do not know this problem as the examples on TSP trade futures, not shares.

I wonder if you can provide a URL reference to the item and how it is buying (too many) shares.
Sunday, March 20, 2011

Cost Accounting for Intentions


I like the option of switching out the word intentions with systems (= results).

Intentions have an undercoat of unwillingness to commit to action. Many have "good intentions" with the real decision to do nothing. System implies a series of actions already in place.

When I practice a system, I get the results I want. Or I can change my mind and decide that the work of the system is not worth the results.

For example, I am making peace with myself concerning my present weight compared to what I weighed in my 30's. I acknowledge that I am healthy, attractive and okay as I am. I commit to a different system to increase muscle mass.

Thanks for your work in clear thinking.
Thank you for sharing your process and insights.
Sunday, March 20, 2011

Wants 5 & 20 Information

Mr. Seykota,

I am not sure where to start.

1) I was an independent floor trader on the Chicago Merc for more than 20 years.

2) Unknowingly, I have been using a self-modified version of the 5-20 trading system for the last several years. Also, knowing nothing of the origins of 5-20.

3) I began trading Fx in 2005. I am now a broker and CTA.

4) I write a daily currency commentary that is forwarded on to [Name]. ( I have no idea if he reads it or uses it as a leading opposite indicator). Recently I went back to the Market Wizards book... and came across your name.

5) What is the best source of  info for 5-20, 4 week break-out and TT?

Any correspondence or feedback would be appreciated.
You might consider the best source of information might be your own experimentation through back-testing.
Saturday, March 19, 2011

Exponential Average Crossover System
(at Resources / TSP, above)

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I'm doing the tutorial on TSP exponential crossover system using MSexcel.

I compute different values of the fast and slow lags compared to yours.

The section on How the System Works shows the first entry signal on 82-08-31 where as mine shows up on 82-09-10.
I have read through the EA resources section of your website and still can't find my error.

I'm grateful if you can please show me what I'm doing wrong; I attach the data file with my calculations.

Thanks for your time, and thank you for your website.
You can hire me to straighten out your arithmetic.  See resources / TTP directory and ground rules, above.

Asking a colleague or friend who likes math might be more cost effective.
Saturday, March 19, 2011

TTP Book on Ebay

Hi Ed,

I find your book on Ebay for $450.00
Hmmm... I wonder if my price is too low.
Saturday, March 19, 2011

European Workshop


I wounder if you is going to have any workshop in Europe this year.
I occasionally host a Workshop - in response to my perception of demand.
Friday, March 18, 2011

Singapore Rules

Hi Ed!

Hope all is well!

If you are able to come visit Singapore I feel you will really enjoy it here. Otherwise, I will make a trip up to London.

I know you have worries Ed about all the rules here in Singapore although as long as you don't feed the monkeys you will be alright!

Thank you for the heads-up on the rules.

I wonder if we might have a bunch of your signs to post around Washington DC.
Friday, March 18, 2011

Hayek - Keynes Rap


I have never been a big fan of Rap music but I can make an exception. I thought you might enjoy this
Thank you for the link.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Identifying With Each Others' Issues

Dear Ed,

Thanks for another great tribe meeting.

I continue to be amazed at how we identify with one another’s issues. It’s like we’re all working vicariously though each other’s experiences.

During the meeting, a tribe member’s issue reminds me of a childhood drama and I realize I’m modeling my mother’s subservient behavior in the drama, and probably throughout my life.

There seems to be many silent contracts made early in life by which we agree to model our parents’ behaviors in a self-defeating manner. The good news is that we can re-wire all this, with a little help from our friends. This tribe work is really cool- and fun. May the force be with us!
Thank you for sharing your process.
Friday, March 18, 2011

Make Clear Agreements : Son Changes


It was another great Tribe meeting. What I got most out of this meaning was what an agreement is, and how important it is to be clear about what your intentions are and the other party's intentions. It's such a simple concept but one that almost everyone fails to grasp.

In past I have failed in many partnerships for this very reason, and have since took the going alone route. When I was young I was always told by my Father that "team sports suck", which this attitude has transferred over into other areas of my life. I do believe there is some truth to that, as favoritism and politics can play a hand who gets to play. But staying away because of this can lead to a pretty lonely life.

We did some role playing later in the session, which Ed pointed out that a lot of issues we have are from agreements we made as children. As I write about this I get a further understanding of TTP methods and how they all relate, and I a get an appreciation of how Ed structures the meetings and connects the methodology.

I notice big changes in my life, and the biggest and best thing of all is the changes in my son. He is putting this methodology to use.

He was awarded at his school star student. The teacher told me he was the peace keeper in the classroom. That he helps other children resolve disputes with one another without telling on them. She said she has never seen anything like it. Today I am off to be mystery reader for his class. I think I kids really accept this methodology, and I hope one day there is a set of child's books teaching this methodology. I look forward to the next Tribe meeting. Thank you Ed, and rest of the Tribe members.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Friday, March 18, 2011

Still hope for model with Bliss > 1

Hi Ed!

I have found a short term system that performs quite well.

It acts contrary to the short term trend but in line with the longer trend

When I take into account for transactions costs the edge is gone for short term stock systems but I might have an edge in the futures market. For stocks I usually calculate with 1% commission and spread costs for buy and sell together. I argue I don´t make any naive back tests regarding costs with these assumptions anyway.

I am not very fast of putting myself at risk. I asked my portfolio manager if I could have a mandate. He earlier denied it but left the door slightly open last time we spoke. I have not come up with ideas since we spoke. I continue to back test and have found that most of my ideas gets spoiled when I back test. When I don´t have a model to lean on I easily get nervous about a position. I need a model, but I prefer the feeling that I know I will win before I have even started.

I am slightly positive to the stock market even though we´ve had plenty of negative events and stock performances. Usually the market goes much longer than I believe so why not also this time? I must admit I was very uncertain during the summer of 2010 but when it turned up again I began to get positive.

I feel that I have a lot of hindsight bias here, because I actually sold off a lot during the rise. Anyway, I think the same thing will happen now, the market will rise again after uncertainty. I am actually trying to predict the future. It must be because I am working with a lot of people who think the main task is to predict the future.

I am doing paper trading in around 50 different stock and futures models daily. I update each daily and if I like the behavior I back test the model. I think it is an easy way to put in a live version of your ideas and if it looks promising I continue with deeper analysis. Maybe I just like the back testing and will never be the guy doing it for real. I hope not. I might be to restrictive but I also consider that each test makes me a little smarter and better, and gives me better resources for coming challenges.

My feelings around back tests goes up and down. I can feel really depressed after a back test undoubtedly proves to fail when the system looks really promising. I keep hoping that I will find one I can trade as a fund manager!

Selling off positions during a rising market does not sound like Trend Trading.  Nor does trying to predict the non-existing future.

Both are consistent with impulsive, medicinal trading, useful to mask the feelings of deeper issues.

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to outguess the market> to Tribe.

One Antidote to Impulsive Trading

is to go mow the lawn first.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Choosing to be Choosy

Dear Ed:

I continue to realize that I create my own problems. The main issue I am working on at this time is impulsive trading.

Last week you had me review the strongest markets.

I had a major realization yesterday, that I need to first figure out what my capacity is in terms of time and mental resources and I need to run at about 30% of capacity, so that my resources are freed up to find the best opportunities. In the past, I tend to run at about 200% or more of capacity and the positive intention of impulses is to tell me that I need to scale back, way back.

As a result if I scan all markets, but then focus only on the strongest markets and limit myself to a very small number of markets and ignore all other markets unless there is a major change in those markets, this effectively cuts my signals and trades down dramatically. I am now willing to miss trades in weaker markets knowing that over time that is a positive edge as it will allow to take to focus my mental resources on stronger markets.

Thank you for all your help and I am grateful to be part of the tribe.
Thank you or sharing your process.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Listening Their Troubles Away


I go to a meeting last night and see an old acquaintance I have not seen in along time. She informs me she has been diagnosed with breast cancer. She talks for awhile about the form of treatment she is receiving. As she talks I listen without adding my own judgments and dialog. Nor do I tell her what she should do. I just let her talk.

I feel some emotion come up for her and see her eyes get wet. We are in a crowd of people and I see her feel then suppress the emotion. The meeting starts and we split up.

I go to the coffee shop today and the girl making the coffee talks about how her mothers mother came to visit her at work. She was expecting her dads mother who treats her well and always makes her feel special. When she walks out to meet her it is the other grandma who burned her with cigarettes when she did not do as she was told when she was young.

She says the burns was just one of many ways her grandmother mistreated her. She talks for awhile about how she feels then she refuses payment for the coffee and thanks me for listening to her rant.

I am not sure exactly what has happened or is happening to me but I am getting the feeling that people are starving for someone to just listen to them without adding their own judgments, opinions, telling them what they think they should do or sympathizing with them.

I get most of this from you. I remember how you don't tell others what they should do.

I used to always feel the need to add my opinion, tell others what they should do, give them the "wise word" so to speak. At first it was a hard habit to break but as I kept catching myself giving my opinions then practicing just listening and being with them it is getting easier.

Listening and receiving seems to be what people are really hungry for. I feel I am serving by just listening.

Oh, and thanks for listening.
Thank you for sharing your process - and for your examples of the healing power of intimate listening.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Electricity from Saltwater

Dear Chief Ed -

Greetings - Hope all is well with you and your family.

I receive a video of a guy generating electricity from a tube of saltwater - and think you may find it interesting.

The video does not show you the high frequency generator underneath the test tube.

Alas, the water is a mere conductor. 

For more on this exciting "new" technology you might read up on the Tesla Coil.
Monday, March 14, 2011

Wants a Salesman to Call

I was wondering if someone could contact me about joining the trading tribe? I have explored the  website but cannot find anyone specifically to contact? I reside in [City] area. Could someone please send me more specific directions, ie who to contact for more info?

I would like to speak to someone about joining, program details, etc.

I would appreciate any feedback. Thanks,
TTP spreads by word of mouth.  I have no salesmen to call on you or to try to sell you a membership. If you wish to learn more, maybe join for free, you can find various links at Resources, above. 

I suppose I could hire salesmen and a slick advertising agency and do a whole Tony Robins thing with TTP.  Maybe call it TTP-Slick.  Or rename it Open Intimacy Learning and sell it as OIL-Slick.
Monday, March 14, 2011

Position Sizing with Profits and Losses

Dear Ed,

How are you?

I knew your name from Jack Schwager’s book. I want to hear your advice on my problem.

I’m a mechanical trader. Before any strategies is used to true trading, I would back test it in historic day.

But one thing always bothered me. You know I need to divide my money into different commodities. For a certain commodity at given risk, I can easily get what’s suitable contract I should trade. I can even optimize the parameter for best performance.

However, as you know, in trend following strategy, I can increase my position when my account get some profits or decrease my position other than clear the position totally when my account get some loss.

Here is a simple demonstration on my scenario. Suppose I use simple moving average cross strategy. Every time, when lead cross upon the lag, I long; when lead cross down the lag, I clear the long position and short. If I only use fixed position when signal is given, that’s easy.

But I want to a little bit complicated. When I try to long the position, I only long part of my position, then I check the profit and loss followed, if it proved to be profit, I will gradually increase to the full position. But the signal for long or short may only appear once, how can I test my strategy?

I would appreciate your reply.

Sincerely yours,
You might consider back-testing various strategies to associate your position sizing with your equity - and pick one you like.
Sunday, March 13, 2011

Intention = Results : Overnight Success
Raising Children and Dealing With Guilt


Saturday one of my employees wanted to work. Around noon I stop by to check on him and he ask if we could talk. He says he went to pick up his 12 year old step daughter from the skating rink and found her in the parking lot in the car with a 17 year old guy.

Although they did not appear to have done anything he said he lost his temper, ordered her out of the car and proceeded to yell at the boy and forbid him from being around her again along with some other choice words that got said. She clammed up on the way home and did not talk.

He ask what he should do. He is hesitant to tell her mom for fear she will lock her in the house and not let her out. He said she also started her period awhile back and did not tell either of them but got her supplies from the school nurse.

We spend quite some time with me describing both the control model and the intimacy model, how they work and the different results one can expect from using each one. He seems to get it. I show him examples of how to ask how the other person is feeling and how to listen without judgment and how to state how he is feeling.

I also remember a conversation you had once about your own daughter and how you desired to give her the information she needed to make good healthy decisions about sex.

I told him that at that age kids need to get good information to make good informed decisions.

As I am talking I remember my childhood. I also remember how I did not have information about these things. I did not know an older boy might befriend me and then use that friendship to take advantage of me sexually.

I had worked on this issue many times in the past and thought I had come to terms with it but after the talk with my employee it came up again.

While we are talking suddenly I am aware that this is all there is. I did not have adequate information. No one told me. Suddenly all the guilt I had carried for years vanished and I felt compassion for the young boy I was then.

I also see that if there is no judgment on the feeling one feels there is no need to hide them. Then they just become an observation such as oh its raining outside or the grass is green and they pass.

Seems I finally get it now. I go home and take a nap. Later that evening I go to an art walk. Several studios have an open house where the public can walk through and look at the artists work. I talk to the woman outside the studio for a minute then went inside.

The studio is in an old building built in the early 1900s. I came out and I talked with her about how I like the architecture of the building. I notice we share easily. There is a man standing beside her by this time who joins in the conversation.

As I talk to him and look in his eyes I noticed a deeper connection than I normally would allow with men. I have few problems relating to women but do not let myself get that close to men. I sense something has changed with that. I go to Burger king for lunch today and the girl who is at the register tells me she wrecked her car. We have had short conversations in the past but today she continues talking.

Customers come to the register and we move to the end of the counter while someone else rings them up. After about 10 minutes she goes back to work and I pick up my meal and sit down to eat it. She comes through the dining area with a new employee she is training and stops once again to talk.

She sits down and I just listen as she talks about the wreck again going back over some things she had said previously. Normally I find a way to disconnect but today I give her my undivided attention. When she finally goes back to work and I go back to eat again my food is cold.

I notice I do not care. I enjoyed the warm connection we had more that I would have enjoyed the food. My intention for Breathwork was to feel comfortable in groups, being noticed and it seems underlying all that I really wanted to be able to form deeper relationships with people.

I just did not expect results to come so fast!

I realize this is too long for faq but I did wish to report my results. Feel free to edit the content to fit faq if you wish.
Thank you for sharing your process - and your insights.
Saturday, March 12, 2011

TTP Intimacy Model - In The Real World

Dear Ed,

I try and apply the intimacy centric model with the family, and I find that my family is a lot more happier than before.

I would like to know, if intimacy centric model applies only to family relationships. I find that much of interpersonal behaviour in the world control centric. For example, I believed that in the workplace, when people resort of manipulative behavior trying to control/influence others they were doing it subconciously and without malicious intention.

I was shocked when someone I knew explained how he deliberately goes about manipulating and controlling others to do what he wants others to do. As much as we TT members have a framework for having the right livelihood and intimacy centric living, it appears that there are others who actually have a similar framework for control centric living.

How does one go about interacting and living in such groups while still keeping true to the intimacy centric model? Is the solution only to engage with people who exhibit non control centric behaviour?

I find that after TTP workshop, I have minimized my interactions with many people I used to interact with. By the same token, I am increasingly spending time with my family, who matters the most.

Sometimes I think that the FAQ are critical to even maintain and hold on to the TTP thought. New FAQ reinforces TTP belief and for someone who has embraced the TTP and is following the methodology only over the last few months, the FAQ updates are vital in keeping the faith and staying true to right livelihood.
Thank you for your insights.

My Austin Tribe members, and others as well, generally report improvements in the commercial areas of their lives as well as in their personal relationships.

For example, an Intimacy-Centric salesman instinctively establishes rapport with his client, and who sincerely helps the client find a solution - whether it results in a sale.

A Control-Centric salesman tries to say something to get the client to buy.

In the long-term, and in the short-term too, the Intimacy-Centric salesman has a huge competitive advantage.

Sometimes I dream about the possibility of lots of people noticing that Intimacy-Centric relating works better than Control-Centric relating - and enough of them adopting it - and achieving some sort of critical mass - and releasing a huge wave of personal freedom and creativity - and then I wake up.
Saturday, March 12, 2011

Positive Intentions

Dear Ed,

Can you kindly list the positive intentions of the following negative feelings (as it applies to markets and in life).

It was easy for me to grasp your answer after you provide the insights (like you say in the TTP book - positive intention of anger is boundary violation), but on my own I don't seem to have answers, even as I try to apply the TTP thought process.

Positive intention of fear, envy, hatred, PROCRASTINATION (not a feeling but a behavior), feeling superior to others , boredom, sadness, loneliness, feeling inferior to others & wanting to be perfect.

In TTP, as we come to see feelings as positive, we also come to see their positive intentions.

As long as you hold feelings as negative, you may inhibit this process.

One way to see the positive intention is to imagine yourself without it. 

Absence of fear or fearlessness might make you into a phenomenal plunger who continues to bet-em-high and astound the critics - until flaming out.

Fearless Mouse

wins the respect and admiration of his peers
and gets all the girls

for a while.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Perfecting Perfection

Dear Ed,

thanks for your reply @ FAQ site. I now sort of understand your point. Trying to be perfect is a bad habit that I am finding it hard to overcome. Thanks for elaborating.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Saturday, March 12, 2011

From Control to Intimacy

Dear Ed:

A few tribe members are at the airport waiting for their flights. One member is repeatedly saying how happy he feels. He is smiling and radiant. I feel that he has let go of some major blocks.

He felt stuck on a major issue only a day ago. Now he breaks into a big smile when he thinks of how to handle the same issue again. He is unstuck - he knots have been untied!!

All of us have been on hot seats recently and I observe major changes between the "now" and the "now" a few months ago. Clearly this is working and I do not observe any side effects. Each person has more energy and more 'aliveness" All this without major effort - I was using a lot more effort before and was not making progress.

We have a happy time together and we comment how bright and exciting things look. Then the time comes to leave - and we hug each other.

On the plane there is a girl in 1st grade sitting next to me. She is travelling with her family for a vacation. In the past, I would have ignored her. This time I connect with her and listen to her and feel her energy and her excitement about life. We talk for over 40 minutes - which is the longest time I've ever connected with a complete stranger under 10 years old.

I feel grateful to be part of the tribe and look forward to our work together.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Friday, March 11, 2011 4:39 PM

The Missing Link


leads to the blank template page:

instead of the March 1-10 link:
Thank you for the catch.
Friday, March 11, 2011

Honoring Agreements

Dear Fellow Tribe Members,

our discussion of “honoring 100% of our agreements” is timely for me.

This follows very well with my father’s insistence of keeping your word. Completely. Be on Time. Do your Best.

Further our discussion leads to the increased power and function we can enjoy keeping and honoring our agreements.

I look around and notice a few people in my life that as a matter of routine do not keep their agreements with me.

I pledge to discuss this with them, give them another opportunity, and then if they insist on not keeping them, then I demote them to make room for someone that is willing.

In this manner I become more full and satisfied in being my best.

Thanks for the free form last night.
Thank you for sharing your process,
Friday, March 11, 2011

Trend Following Doesn't Work

Hi Ed!

Sometimes it feels like trend following doesn´t work. It's likely after a test you believe in that proves to be nothing special.

For the first time I feel I have to have some substance in my message when I write you. My earlier emails has been quite positive. I am positive now as well, maybe a little tired, but I don´t have the need to write an optimistic text.

I have planned to write you once a week. Last Friday I started to write but it felt so awkward that I just skipped it. It´s beginning to feel a little bit like that now as well. I just write what comes to my mind and... now nothing comes to my mind...

I have tested some stock models that try to catch the trend when there is a bounce.

The reason I no longer use strict trend following methods is that I don´t think they work. Very often they are money destroyers. For example a system with 75 days breakout entry and 30 days breakout for exit/SL worked very well until this correction, and then it fell much more than it had gone up.

I don´t like that behavior in a model. It doesn´t give me a good bliss. Anyway, these bouncing models tends to perform ok, but I tend to think my research is naive and not reliable enough. I stop there!

Have a nice weekend!
Thank you for sharing your process.

I wonder how you define "bounce" and how you employ bouncing with Trend Trading.

Your mathematical systems is only a part of your overall trading system.  The rest has to do with how you operate it.

In general, people abandon their systems when they start to feel something they are unwilling to feel.  In your case, that might be during a drawdown.

You might consider another career, something perhaps that includes something that always goes up, say, tallying up the national debt.