April 30, 2013

FAQ is BAQ

Ed,

From time to time I go to the Trading Tribe site and see no updates. I feel concerned, mostly hoping that perhaps Ed is just taking a vacation. Tonight I search for the TT site, and I see a live community again. I feel great. I hope you are feeling great, too

Best wishes and thank you,

April 30, 2013

Something Fishy

Hi Ed,

Thank you for your response on my FAQ post.

FYI, the TTP workshop link on the April 21-30 page does not direct you to the workshop page.

Thanks

April 30, 2013

Fred Nocturne

Dear Ed,

I am thinking about a funk I went into last night. I feel a weight on my shoulders, a sadness in my heart and a sense of resentful pressure throughout my body. I am usually able to identify triggers but this one has me stumped.

I am learning to play a new musical instrument after fleeing from playing music many decades ago, under the watchful eye of a critical father. Last night I return home from my second lesson and notice my funk, which was not there before the lesson. I attempt to medicate with food, which, as always, just makes matters worse!

I analyze every "usual suspect" I can think of: during the lesson I discover that I am holding the instrument in a seriously wrong way, that I can correct but must be vigilant about. But my teacher is very laid back, not critical at all, positive and encouraging. Nothing to hook onto there.

Then maybe instead it's a relationship that I have been worrying about, that I over-analyze and where I easily feel rejected and ignored. But no, my friend has called and been chatty and supportive. No hooks there either. So what the heck is bothering me? I run through every interaction I've had that day, and nothing clicks

I go to sleep still in my funk.

Fortunately, I have an agreement with Fred that, if I wake up early in the morning and have time to go back to sleep, and if I ask sincerely for help, Fred will give me a dream that sheds light on my situation. This works wonderfully, more often than not.

Fred gives me a dream that involves a male middle-school teacher. He looks cool and hip, fairly young with long curly dark hair. He is talking with his students, but they are outside in a tropical environment, not in a classroom. Apparently his wife has recently been through a life-threatening event that has led him to change his priorities about what is important. He tells the students that they will notice a difference in the way he teaches, now that he has learned that work is not more important than connections, feelings and loving relationships.

I finally "get" it when I wonder how that teacher and his wife reflect parts of myself. The part of me that is achievement-driven, that is always giving me a grade on everything I do, is still attempting to convince me to feel like a failure if I don't do "well" at everything. As I see this, a cascade of images of things I haven't done "well" at in the last few days runs before my eyes.

My feelings, my valuable inner "me" who doesn't have to do anything to be worthwhile, is under attack (the wife). Fred shows me that the teacher is changing, he is realizing the value of the connection to me, and is going to work differently from now on.

He is not paternal and authoritarian. He wants me to be happy and love myself. I simply have to believe this, and remember it when the old habits pop up again.

I also realize, with a great sense of freedom, that it wasn't my father that "caused" me to leave music, or any other endeavor I abandoned out of fear of failure. I didn't have to respond to him the way I did, and it's not coming from him now. It's all me, it always was me, and there's a lot I can do about that now!

My funk vanishes, and I feel humble and grateful, especially to the people writing to FAQ who are so openly sharing their experiences and listening to mine. I hope you all have a great day!

Best wishes,

April 29, 2013

New Tribe: North Richland Hills, Texas

Hi, Ed,

The North Richland Hills Trading Tribe is now open. My intention is to host a 4-session summer series beginning on May 24th.

Attached is our TTID.

Best,

April 29, 2013

A Miracle

Hi, Ed,

I feel warmth in my chest seeing the FAQ up and running.

On January 10th this year, we welcome a beautiful, happy baby girl to our essential Tribe.

Thank you for helping me with my rocks so I don't pass them on to her or our son. My eyes water as I write this.

Best,

April 29, 2013

Flirting with Zen

Hi Chief,

I am sending out resumes to look for the next job. Somehow I feel each time I send one, it's like make a trade.

I am idle in job market for a long while, and I feel unwilling to go out for interviews, especially those half / one day on-sites.

I acknowledge the feeling of wanting to do nothing, and I find it pretty cool to go out receiving all kinds of Fred, CTOs, directors, engineering VPs, and peer engineers.

Thanks,

April 29, 2013

On The Sideline

Dear Ed,

Click Here For Larger

April 29, 2013

More On Poker Face (below)

Dear Ed,

Thank you for your response and for your suggestion. I have thoroughly considered the associating costs and I have thus decided to change.

After dramatic relationships, I am now serenely engaged to a person whom I love deeply.

My girlfriend and I have built and continue to build a wonderful relationship made of sharing and support.

She is a great partner and I have no problems opening up with her. I enjoy sharing deep feelings with her. I am also open to receive her and she likes to share as well.

We both make a daily commitment to each other. I am proud of the results we're getting.

I have no intention of wearing a poker face when interacting with the people I love or with people whom I feel are willing to receive me.

I have no intention of sharing with people whom I clearly feel are not interested in me and / or I do not like: I value my private space a lot and I see no point in letting such people in.

I have troubles when things are not so clear-cut, when there might be the possibility of real intimacy but discovering whether there is implies taking a not-so-small chance of disappointment / rejection.

I want to use TTP as a way of liberating myself from my own oppressive judgment that prevents me from sharing or at least hampers the process. I judge myself before others do it and I then share selectively on the basis of such judgment (which tries to front run the likely judgment of the receiver).

I want to learn how to accept greater risks in relationships, including the risk of being judged negatively, the risk of being rejected and the risk of not liking what I see, so as to be able to share freely whenever I want to, without fearing the outcome. This can allow me to clearly sort my relationships either into the "meaningful relationship" or the "don't bother" categories.

I have been able to take the plunge with my girlfriend as she really emanates an aura of openness and acceptance. Now I want to implement the same approach in more regular circumstances.

Best,

April 28, 2013

Bach to the Banjo with Kruger

Ed,

Beautiful banjo Bach at ...

http://acousticguitarvideos.com/1267/jens-kruger-plays-bach-cello-suite-no-1-on-banjo/

April 28, 2013 9:47 AM

Tribe Report: Poker Face

Dear Ed,

I report my experience for my first Tribe Meeting.

As time passes and as I keep thinking about the experience, I notice that what I want to share with FAQ changes and becomes clearer, simpler and way shorter than before.

First of all, I get a very good feeling upon meeting the Chief. I like his relaxed openness and his attentive listening. I can see his serene demeanour, I sense he has clear goals and a clear purpose. He likes where he is in his journey. I also feel his strong commitment to doing serious work in the Tribe and at the Workshop. We share many feelings and insights before and after the meeting.

He tells me that in his experience we approach the markets in the same way in which we approach relationships. I realize I have an issue with releasing / letting go, i.e. loss taking and even profit taking. I am much more effective at picking winners and riding trends. I like long-term commitments and relationships and I like long-term investments and secular trends.

He tells me that winning or losing is simply a choice. I now realize that everything is a choice. Sharing and changing oneself are choices as well and there is no Tribe, Workshop or other magical instrument that can replace or preempt these conscious choices. They are tools and we choose if and how to use them.

I also realize that I like to blow my issues out of proportion, in a bid to get attention. I like whining and playing the role of the victim or more correctly the role of the damned, umbratic and oh-so-fascinating character: fear of not being interesting enough. I realize I do not need this role playing when interacting with people to whom I truly feel close.

I also notice that I keep judging myself for what I say or do and even when I am developing forms my conscious mind keeps on interrupting and issuing judgments. Sometimes the validation of the other members elicits the feeling of "wanting to do the opposite". At a certain moment though I hear the voice of the Chief encouraging me deeply and sincerely and I go with it and I partially enjoy my "go away / pushing away" form, although I do not bring it to completion.

I feel way more focused and in the moment when taking on the role of receiver, particularly when I sense that the sender is truly going deep into his feelings. I like it, I enjoy giving my support to him and I am alert to all his subtle manifestations of feelings. This is also a great cure for my bullshitting / whining tendency.

I also recognize that my main issues can be turned into extremely powerful resources.

My ability to not show any feelings is great and can be useful in many circumstances (e.g. poker, unwilling / uninterested receiver, forced interactions with dangerous people).

It also helps me in being alert to other people's manifestations and in catching subtle, early signals of all sorts of feelings, even the ones that then get immediately suppressed. I read people easily. Also, in order to be able to effectively suppress my feelings, I first have to identify them as early on as possible, before they surface fully or even partially. I am very attuned to what's going on inside my body. I think these two skills are the bases of real, effective intuition.

My bullshitting tendency allows me to smell bullshit from miles away and immediately detect lack of real commitment.

My always active conscious mind with its analytical fervour helps me in clarifying situations and in identifying key elements and issues.

I need to make the daily, conscious choice of using my skills proactively rather than as instruments for drama-setting. This is where TTP can help.

Finally, I confirm sending you the cheque for the Workshop. I can't wait to be there. I get the sense you're a great bullshit sniffer as well and this elicits a certain tension in my bowel (where a huge k-not resides): I sense you uncover the real issues quickly and effectively and that there's no place to hide. I like the challenge that comes with going directly to the "source", the inventor and likely the most effective practitioner of TTP. I can feel you really go for it and I want to be part of the process.

Best,

April 28, 2013

Getting A Feel For Systems

Hi Ed

Regarding price addiction and looking at prices. Using the Donchian 4/2 weekly rule. I noticed to day (Sunday) that the price broke through this week. So am long. The stop is in place so there's nothing to do. I realize that that I'm not interested in the highs but the weekly low. There is not point looking at the price on an hourly/daily basis because the stop will be triggered automatically when hit.

Regarding programming and back testing a system 4/2, 10/6, 6/2, 15/5. It is all well and good putting these parameters into a program and back testing. But you you do not get the feel for looking at the charts and getting practice reading them. Also I do not feel that I have accomplished the work. I am just analyzing the data rather than producing the result.

Thanks

April 27, 2013

Tribe Report - Looking Up

Hi Ed,

A few months ago, I bring to tribe my snapshot about being in an intimate relationship with a mate.

I feel embarrassed to write about this. I have this snapshot for a while and I still can not materialize it.

I wonder if my fear of real intimacy does not allow me to move forward with this.

As I am not making progress with this snapshot, I bring the issue back during the last tribe session. My tribe encourages me to date more women. I am doing this. I like to date and meet new women, although, sometimes I feel empty and disappointed after the dates.

Sometimes, I just feel resignation about me just being alone. However, when I see couples kissing and hugging, I feel sadness and envy.

A few months ago, I meet a woman at my fitness class and I start to feel a strong attraction toward her. She starts to play hard to get, and I literally pursue her until she accepts to go out on a date. I do not recall pursing a woman this way before. A few weeks after the first date, I bring some sweets to her. She accepts the sweets, although she somehow ignores me. I feel a strong feeling of rejection.

I see her a few weeks later during the fitness class. The class includes doing some kicks to work out. When we start with the kicks, the instructor starts to challenge me to look up when I do the kicks. This woman is right in front of me and she is watching me.

The instructor is challenging me in front of the whole class. I try to look up when I do the kicks but I cannot. I recall looking up multiple times when doing the kicks before. However, this time I just cannot do it and I continue to look down. The instructor starts to raise his voice as he is challenging me to look up. I have a feeling of impotence, that I cannot perform and meet the challenge. I also feel embarrassed as everybody is watching me. I recall quietly saying to myself "I cannot believe I am doing this". I basically shut down.

At the end the class, I approach the instructor. I tell him that I like feedback but not the yelling. I also share my feeling of embarrassment. However, I later realize that my Fred (with everybody else help) creates this situation so I can experience those feelings.

Best,

April 27, 2013

Optimal Risk

Hi Mr. Seykota,

I recently came across your article "Determining Optimal Risk," and was quite inspired by the concept that risk parameters were far more important than the entry/exit signals of any basic trend following strategy.

You used a standard coin flip betting scheme to show mathematically that the optimal risk was 0.25, which I agree with, however my question is can you apply that same risk parameter to a trend following strategy which would produce different probabilities.

For example, say you had a more complex scheme where you have a pre-defined risk of something around 2% for each trade, but a wide range of possibilities for the potential profit for each trade - say anywhere from 5-200%, with an associated probability distribution for the range of returns.

In addition, as I'm sure you are aware, with most trend following systems you will end up with more losers than winners, so that you may have a 40/60 or even 30/70 average win to loss ratio as opposed to the more basic 50/50 coin flip model.

I'm curious if you have done any work to attempt to mathematically model the risk of a more "realistic" trend following strategy, or if you think it is even necessary given the added complexity.

Thanks,

April 27, 2013

Wants a Grief Facilitator

Dear Chief,

April 24, 2013, Depression, you write:

we help him define his problem in terms of the difference between what he has and what he wants. A good friend or mom might not enable you to whine on and on, endlessly, without you coming up with a pro-active plan to solve your problem.

Maybe you can consider that I don´t want to argue, but to expose a different opinion and maybe, by trading arguments, to get some enlightenment in a socratic way. I am not interested in "being right", I am interested in "moving towards right livelihood", maybe also "understanding".

If I get to "sticky" or whinnie, I kindly ask you to let me know.

There is no problem to solve. I mean, I want to be healthy again, but medication and therapy do not help, and electroshocks are not an option to me (I don´t want to have a Kentucky Fried Brain). Hence, I cannot imagine a pro-active plan to change the situation.

The solution would be to accept disease and impediment. I cannot. Wow! I cannot accept reality. If I could accept the feelings of "my dream will never come true", "it is not what I want", "I do not provide safety to my wife and children", "I am a failure", "this majestic drama", I would realize that everything is OK and find peace. Maybe at that point a good doctor would find something that helps me.

I recall a Tribe meeting where a young woman, after 5 miscarriages, accepts the feelings of "I will never know these children" and "they will not know me". It was not a problem, it was just a horrible fact to accept. As she does it, she feels released. She stops suffering. The same night she has a very long talk with her husband and they re-start trying for her to get pregnant.

On April 22, 2013, "Issues", you write "(Your) Tribe Can Assist you to grieve fully including experiencing denial, anger, despair and acceptance."

That is what I need, right now. A mom or good friend who help me to grieve fully at once, not to whine endlessly.

On the hotseat I realize that not to accept reality means trying to control it. I cannot accept it = I cannot give up control.

In the Reno Workshop you accepted my overwhelming anger. It allowed me to access to my deepest sadness and to recognize the truth about myself.

I wonder if the Austin Tribe and you, dear friend, are open to assist me to grieve fully.

I don´t find an appropriate way to close this letter. Right now I feel a warm wave of something towards you, which I cannot describe in words.

April 26, 2013

Staying In

Chief Ed,

It is an honor to receive your call and to host you when you visit our tribe after the conference in San Francisco in October.

I've asked my TT members to post to FAQs as a requirement for membership so you know the issues that the TT members are working on.

Many of us have been working on many individual issues that seem to be permanent in nature or relapse and recur. My own issues have been - lack of discipline in keeping office / desk / paperwork / filing taxes etc organized and doing them on time. Recently with the tribe's help after having taken the issue a few times into the hot seat I've become better and almost to the point of achieving my goals.

My other goal is to trade my system with zero variance (i.e. taking every signal as it comes and then staying with it till it changes). I do the first part with zero variance but not the second.

I tend to take profits too soon and am reluctant to take losses and thus become sloppy on exits.

Tribe and hot seats have help me to get over the anxiety and fear once being in the trade but I still need to do more work. I say I'm somewhere around a 6.5 on a scale of 0 to 10 having started at zero and then staying between -2 and +3 for a long time and broken through now to the upside.

Good to see that the TTP website is alive again and that the FAQ is a good source for personal growth. Thank you for your help. I look forward to seeing you soon.

April 25, 2013

Secret Sorrows

Dear Ed:

Several things come to mind when I read April 24, 2013, Depression, (below).

First of all, I'm not a trader but along with many other jobs, I've had the job of "mom."

My sons are grown now, but as they grew up, they learned not to bring a problem without a possible solution. Even when they were little and their bike tires would no longer hold air, they learned to bring me a list of bike shops along with their flat tires. As they grew, their issues and problems got bigger, but they learned I could only facilitate their resolutions; however, they had to do work.

To quote Erick Fromm, "The mother-child relationship is paradoxical and in a sense, tragic. It requires the most intense love on the mother's side, yet this very love must help a child grow away from the mother and to become fully independent."

This brings me to the observation that everyone has secret sorrows and problems, which on the outside nobody knows. Often, we label a person as "cold" when they are actually only "sad."

In Tribe, I wonder if that's how people bring their secret sorrows and problems forth and perhaps deal with and resolve them. If so, I commend this process and congratulate those fortunate enough to have a Tribe.

As humans, we all get stuck at times in our issues and it sometimes takes a facilitator to help bring these issues to the surface to be dealt with. Moms, friends, therapists, Tribes, can only be that – facilitators.

By providing indirect or unobtrusive assistance, guidance, the facilitator keeps the flow moving. However, we all must be strong enough and courageous enough to do the work ourselves. Through this process, we all can realize our true, amazing successful selves.

Best regards

April 24, 2013

Wants to Play His Own Music

Dear Ed,

U r changing my life. Reading your book TTT regularly and learning a lot. It is WIP.

While reading TTT book just had an AHA.

Sharing my childhood incidences with a hope to gain clarity from you in the non existent future.

There are three very poor kids who are throwing stones on the tree with the idea to get some ripe mangoes. This is happening in our school's playground. I am not aware of their futile attempts or presence.

One sharp stone lands on my face just next to my right eye brows and cuts my skin deeply leaving a big scar. I am bleeding profusely and other student notice it and bring it to our PT sirs attention. He immediately rushes to me and orders watchman to bring first aid box.

While he is approaching me, I look at him. His face shows no emotions. He tells me strong boys do not cry. I really feel like crying a lot. It is very painful and I am losing blood. But I stop crying. I want to be strong though I am physically very delicate. He gently and firmly cleans my wound and some stitches are taken. He feels proud about me that I do not cry and that I listen to his authority figure. This happens in 1976.

Comes 11 September 1985, even after taking care of mother, she loses cancer battle and dies at 9 in the morning when I am 17. At 12 same day grandpa who was my biz partner passes away. At four in the evening my biz manager passes away. I do not cry. I go into shock and depression though I am not aware at that time. I lose all interest in everything. I feel like just running away from everything. But I have lots of responsibility on my head.

Have to make money as my father is not well. Have to study in college and score best marks as I always stand first. But heart is somewhere else. Mother before just passing away has taken a promise that I take care of my father. I want to shift to USA due to Think and Grow Rich Napoleon Hill's book's influence. I realize that America is a great country and if I work hard my future is likely to be amazing there. But I do not share my feelings with my father. I start my share broking business and become successful very fast. I leave my college to pursue my 2 businesses. I start visiting companies and take interviews of many MDs at a very young age. They feel surprised to see me so young. Then I invest and am making 30% + returns every year on my limited capital. Soon I have much more than what I had in past.

From 1986 I start falling sick every now and then. I feel I really did not play my own music. I Sacrifice my whole life for the sake of my family members. As per Dr. I need to be in a dry climate away from Sea. After my third nasal polyps surgery in 2009 I again tell my wife that I need to shift to a dry place. She does not care. She tells me "do what you want". She is not ready to shift. I tell her that I will soon leave her and that she has to bear her expenses on her own then. She feels I am just lying or trying to manipulate her and instill fear in her. She has done child psychology in her college course. 2010, I file my divorce petition. Today I read page 57 of TTT book on manipulations.

I question to you is : Though very serious about studies I do not complete my college due to family circumstances. I Sacrifice for family and do not play my own music. I Forget about my goals. Why does this happen? Why do I not get what I want? What is the right thing to do? Do I really get what I want at a very deep level?

Your guidance as usual is useful. I am hoping for an early reply. You might tell me to take this feeling to a Tribe meeting of wanting to get an early reply from you!

Thank you for making me better.

April 24, 2013

Depression

Dear Ed,

On April 10, 2013, Majestic Drama, Ed writes, Your condition (depression/anxiety) might require the services of a professional therapist.

I need help. If from a therapist, professional or not, I don´t know. I remember people reporting long lasting ailments, pains and symptoms which disappear during a Tribe meeting. We don´t do therapy, we just accept people the way they are and hence leave them room to accept themselves, if they want. In my experience, that heals.

What I need the most, I think, is someone who holds my hand and looks me in my eyes and is open to me and allows me to share my fear, my pain, my indescribable sorrow about losing myself, my mind, and does not look at the watch, and does not care about how intense these feelings are.

What I need is a good friend. Or a mom...

Best regards,

April 23, 2013

Tribe Report: Simultaneous Remote Transformation (SRT)

Hi Chief,

I check the tribe meeting archive and look for the interesting cases to report to you.

This TT meeting is the first time our tribe member experience the Simultaneous Remote Transformation and Polarity process.

The client has an injury on his job, and about a year ago he goes to a doctor for evaluation of the insurance payment. He feels the doctor is not "neutral", which the doc is supposed to be. He feel the doctor is condescending, and not caring his knee condition, which will cause underpayment from his insurance company. He describes his pain on his knee due to the injury on work, and anybody sees his knee will believe that he is in pain, but he feels the doctor does not. For tomorrow he will visit the same doctor again, he feels very worried that he might hurt the doctor if the doctor continue understate his injury condition.

Tribe listen to him to tell his story for a while. When he says he might want to hurt the doctor, he stands up from the couch and punch forward. He repeats it few times.

Then the PM asks him that what he feels, right before he wants to take actions to hurt the doctor. What was the very first situation when he starts to have these feelings.

He says he feel nobody was listening to him in the office, he only hears the typewriter typing. The nurse is not looking at him, neither does the doctor. He says "they don't believe me!", the Tribe encourages him to say it more, say it louder. He repeats it more times.

Then PM ask him how he feels on his body in that situation. He says that he feels cold, tribe ask him to feel more. He feels cold on his back, lower back and arm, he embraces himself and tribe ask him feel colder.

He then says he sees that the doctor is looking at his tattoo when he took off his shirt to exam. He feels the doctor is looking down on him for he has tattoo all over his body. He feels shame and embarrassed. Tribe ask him to feel more.

Tribe encourage him to feel more whatever feeling he has in that situation.

He bends over and start to lie on the ground on his back, covers his eyes with his hand. He says "I am feeling I am on the beach with my girl friend. She is lying on my side, touching me gently. It feels so good".

PM sees the client is experience protector feeling. The tribe encourage the client experience more the feeling on the beach.

Client says he feels his girl friends touch is gentle and warm, he shows with his left arm that she lays her head on his chest. He feels sands on his feet, warm and soft. He feels the breath and the breeze on the beach is comforting. Tribe encourage him feels more.

He keep feeling the feelings until goes to silence, like falling to sleep.

The PM asks him whether he want to experience the entry feelings with the doctor. He immediate jumps up, roaring with strong feelings of anger, disgust. He make a large step forward and make a loud, challenging sound like a lion. Tribe encourage him to feel more anger.

He then lies down again and goes back to the beach feelings, tribe encourage him to feel more the feelings. He lies there feeling the sand on his body, feeling warmth and smooth on his skin. His voice gets lower and slower and gradually goes to nearly sleep. Tribe stay with him to feel more.

After a while, the PM asks him whether he wants to experience his entry feeling again, he make another sudden move by spring up with stronger anger and disgust, steps forward with roar.

These experience repeats two more time, by the 4th time he jumps up and makes another forward step, he then steps back and sit on the couch. Tribe ask him to stay and look for body feelings, in the situation he see the doctor again.

He closes his eyes and says he feel nausea. Tribe cheers him to feel more nausea. Keep feeling more. Tribe ask him to concentrate on what the doctor makes him feel. He says the doctor's face makes him feel disgusted, he feels stronger nausea. Tribe ask him focus on the nausea feeling, make it stronger. He stay there for a while silently.

Later he slouches again and lie on the floor, tribe cheer him feeling the beach. He lies there for a while, covering his eyes with right hand. He stay quiet.

Then PM ask him how he feel seeing the doctor, he says quietly "the doctor is not a issue any more", he says he actually sees doctor was smiling to him. He turns and lies on his left side, with left arm wrap over his shoulder onto his back. He stay there in peace for a while.

Later he stands up and with smile on his face, showing complete contentment and peace. He checks out his feeling and he feels no more anxiety or worry about the visit the next day. Tribes cheers his achievement.

Few days later, the tribe member updates that his visit is canceled and the insurance company gives him a payment much better than his expectation. He says when he goes to the doctor's office the next morning, the nurse tells him that the doctor finishes his report the night before, the same time when he is on the hot seat. The report is in his favor.

This is the first occurrence of simultaneous remote transformation in our tribe.

One more thing I note is by making the client alternatively experience two different extreme feelings back and force, the process eventually integrates the two feelings into one. It's something similar to polarity process.

Thanks,

April 23, 2013

We Got It!

Ed,

After months and months of hard work - lots of emails, phone calls and questions - as of today we now have our MAS Registration under the new Fund Management Scheme as "Registered Fund Management Company" in SG.

Thank you all for your support in making this happen!

Onwards and upwards! :)

Regards,

April 23, 2013

Sex and Water

Ed,

I have become aware of something I wish to share with you.

I believe there are only two kinds of investment classes.

A Fundamental class based on fundamental human need and an investment class rooted in a Fad.

1. Sex

2. Water

Every other market is rooted in the concept of a Fad.

A Fad is a temporary "favorite" for human lifestyle, emotional belief, political persuasion, pride in one's country, etc.

For instance, we can't invest anymore in shipping expeditions to the Americas with the hope of getting gold back in payment and there was a time, long ago, when we could not invest in corn. These were temporary conditions before and after a Fad. Similarly, someday we won't be able to invest in oil drilling companies, or Dell Computer, or the US government security, and today we can't invest in an energy company that is sending a solar array to orbit the sun and beam energy back to the earth, or many things I have no knowledge to write about here. All of the Fad based markets have a fungible quality based on the present environmental condition or physical reality and are dynamic in nature and through history.

Looking at the fundamental class:

1. A pure Sex trade is frowned upon and difficult to execute within the laws of most governments.

2. Water is tradable, but it is very much a long term investment, and not typically like an oil investment like a Spindletop. The tradable water ideas can also have elements of Fad built in, such as "Spring" water sold in a bottle.

So this leaves us with the vast majority of our investment opportunities rooted in the dynamics of a Fad.

There are two principles that I see worth paying attention to in Fad based investing:

1. Buy when the risk (in the Fad) is believed to be higher than it really is, and sell when the risk is believed to be lower than it really is. "Fundamental" Fad traders often espouse use of this technique.

2. Front run the growth of the Fad and exit the investment before the Fad loses favor. Systematic Trend following likes to do this. The "Fundamental" trading approach also does this. Oftentimes, Fad generators will get on CNBC and provide impetus to the spark and generation of the Fad.

I thank you for stimulating so much thought.

April 22, 2013

Issues

Hello,

I am looking forward to meeting you at our SF Tribal meeting this Fall and I may see you at the Sacramento TTP next month as well.

My issues are:

Re-establishing motivation during a period of bereavement.

Establishing consistency in daily market preparation.

The issue I worked on recently was my inability to say No to requests for money. I tend to feel sorry for the person and since they need it and I have it, I feel I want to share. But I am not good at collecting the pay back.

I deal with this by avoiding those who want to borrow from me. It is hard when I see they really need it and I do not like being stingy or avaricious.

Thank you.

April 22, 2013

More On Donchian

Hello Ed,

Thank you for the prompt reply.

I have back tested the Donchian 4/2 rule from 2000 to June 2012 on instrument Eur/Usd. The results were overall +ve.

Results were;
Winning probability = 47.86%
Average win = 330.38 pips
Average loss = 182.74 pips

Pips won = 18,501
Pips lost = 11,147

Net win = +7,354 pips

long wins = 33
long loses = 30

short wins = 23
short loses = 31

Largest winning trade = 1184 pips
Largest losing trade = 557 pips

Max. consecutive wins = 5
Max. consecutive loses = 6

This was done manually using weekly charts, using my retail trading platform. I have now diversified into other instruments, Wheat, GBP/USD, West Texas oil, Corn, Soybeans. However, I have not back tested these instruments. This needs addressing.

I will take on board your advice and back test 10/6, 6/2, 5/15, using weekly time frames. Since I will be using my trading platform and doing it manually. I have a lot of homework. Will send results when available.
Loved the photograph very apt in today's society.

Thanks

April 22, 2013

More On Intimacy-Centric Complaining

Ed,

I deeply appreciate your thoughtful and on-target reply to my post regarding how to "complain" to a friend using the intimacy-centric model. Of course, I had not actually shared my feelings about the subject, as you surmised.

After reading your comments, I take a deep breath and initiate the conversation in a way that allows my friend to choose a convenient time. I tell him I feel disregarded, like my feelings don't matter to him. Moving further into my feelings, I realize (and tell him) that I am afraid that I can't trust him if he doesn't care about my feelings. When I say this I feel scared and very vulnerable. I ask him if he is willing to share his feelings.

He tells me he feels controlled and manipulated by my asking him to change his behavior, and that this leads him to feel less cared about by me! You can imagine my surprise.

As we continue talking I am aware of many feelings, ranging from fear and sadness to excitement and optimism. I realize I am not optimistic about the relationship as much as I am about my ability to be open with my feelings and to receive the feelings of another person. Though it is difficult to release my need for THIS particular person to be in my life, I am aware that I can do it and survive.

Giving up controlling someone, when I have the "noble" goal of being loved, feels like giving up the possibility of being loved. That is incredibly scary to me, and yet I see it is the truth and the way out of the wilderness. Thanks for helping me light up the path.

Sincerely,

April 21, 2013

Cheque-ing In

Hi Ed,

I notice I experience confusion about your early bird payment instructions, and about sending you a "Check" as payment for the workshop. I also notice that this confusion brings up feelings, which seems to mirror similar experiences in my life, feelings such as:

<Wanting to be told exactly what to do>
<Wrestling with authority and trying to find ways of bending the rules>
<Seeking approval from those in authority>
<Wanting to shut down and to extract myself from confrontation>

Despite the fact that I recognise I am having these feeling, I wish to ultimately to comply with your instructions.

Some of the following thoughts run through my mind:

I assume that "check" means "cheque" defined per Wikipedia as "a document that orders payment of money from a bank account". I have not seen the word check used in the context of making a payment before.

I understand Ed wants payment in USD $. I have no problem with this.
I am completely fine with writing and posting you a cheque from my bank, but I want to pay you without having you experience any problems with my payment.

In the back of my mind, I wonder if your USA bank will accept my Australian bank cheque, which orders the payment of your fee amount in USD from my AUD account. I wonder if Paypal might be a better option.

I try to do some research and it seems my Australian bank here will accept the deposit of a foreign cheque, so I guess your bank would do the same.

I notice travellers cheques may be an option.

I discover my bank can issue a "bank draft in USD", initially i think this seems to be a bank to bank payment instruction, I explore this option further and discover this will work.

I wonder if I should make the cheque out to "Edward Seykota" or the "Trading Tribe"? I guess "Edward Seykota" would likely work best, as Ed likely has a bank account, whereas the Trading Tribe might not.
I guess that you have had many foreign, non US citizens, at prior workshops.

I wonder how they have complied with your instructions to pay by "Check".

I will likely use a bank draft, as this so far seems the most likely to succeed method to send you a payment via cheque.

As the deadline approaches, and if I haven't seen any further clarification, I will make a call as to the best option I have available, making the cheque out to "Edward Seykota" in order to comply with your workshop page early bird instructions.

I feel some stress, as the deadline approaches, which in my form is: Squirming around in my seat with rapid breathing and feeling a tingle of electricity in my arms and chest.

Feeling alert and ready to bolt.

I feel a knot of regret in my stomach.
I don't want to be a trouble maker.
I apologize for making this simple task a much bigger deal than it should be.

I have by doing some investigations discovered that words such as "Cheque", "Check" and "Bank Draft" can all mean the same thing.

I am pleased you did receive my prior postcard and letter.
I shall eagerly wait for the arrival of your essentials cards.
Thank you.

Yours sincerely,

April 21, 2013

Money Matters Down Under

Hi Ed,

I would like to take advantage of your early bird price for the workshop.

I am unable to easily send you a USD $ check as I live in Australia.

I wonder if you might have some other method, by which I might pay you, that would be mutually convenient?

Also, sometime in February, I sent you a postcard. At the same time, I also posted you a separate letter, which contained AUD $10 and in which I requested two Essentials cards.

I wonder if ever received this letter?

Thank you.

April 21, 2013

Market-a-Holic Price Addiction

Hello Ed,

I am a trend trader following the Donchian 4 week rule.

The problem is when a trade has been initiated I follow the price. For the first week of the trade everything is OK. I show a dispassionate disinterest. It is during the second and subsequent following weeks. I become addicted to watching the price. It is so easy now to find out the current price and work out how the trade is progressing. It becomes a form of addiction, price watching.

I feel like a drug/alcohol abuser (marketoholic). I use the price to get my fix.

I now know I only need to look at the price at the end of the week.

So to remedy this I have deleted all quote opportunities from iPhone and computer. I will follow the advice of alcoholics anonymous (recovering marketoholics). Take one hour/day at a time and only look when the market is closed.

Thanks,