Happy New Year Ed!

I hope this E-mail finds you and your family well and you're enjoying living in PR.

We often talk about the fun day on your birthday, 3 years ago. Cooking together and rummaging through your kitchen cabinets to find ingredients to make a creative meal.

Oh yeah, [Name] is asking if you have received a small Christmas treat we sent to your PR address.

My 2014 Trading Summary:

New Year With The Family

Hi Ed,

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! May you and your family and your tribe receive and give many wonderful blessings this year.

Just want to say thank you also.

For New Year's I watch Star Wars Episode 4 with my siblings and my cousins. My female cousin in particular really likes it. I feel happy that I can share this movie with her and share this feeling. I think about you while watching the movie and contemplating about the force.

Happy New Years!

In 2014, I improve my English and my programming skill.

I begin to study again EcoNowMics and system dynamics.

I re-read Govopoly and feel my teeth clench and a pressure on my jaw: I find in it my own vision, my own concern.

At the same time, I have a sense of discomfort: I'm not ready to ride the big wave coming. In 2015 I keep trading seriously.

I listen to my daughters and learn to follow the path they show me.

I feel deeply grateful to you and to all the people who contribute to TT FAQ.

I wish all of you and your families a great 2015 !

A hug,

Which begs the question, would financial bubbles occur absent central bank actions?

Did tulips appreciate before central banks existed?

Seen in a different light, bubbles are turbulence in a price series... Similar to how wind builds and blows stronger ahead of a cold front and then as the top passes there is a sharp change in direction and intensity of the wind.

Great to see you, and see you doing so well.

Cheers,

The Flow of Life

Ed,

I am sending you seasonal greetings & love from the frosty Netherlands to your tropical home!

I share the favourite quote I hear in 2014 from our Tribe friend, [Name], from the lips of the late, great Sri Nisargadatta Maharaj who I have the great privilege of meeting in Bombay in '76 & '77 :

When I see that I am Nothing, This is Wisdom;

When I see that I am Everything,This is Love;

And between these two flows my Life.

I understand how any percentage profit becomes exponential growth, as profit this year is multiplied by some factor (dependent of losses) for profit of next year, as profit this year will be multiplied, minus the percentage of loss of course. So it is this multiplication which work its magic, as opposed to addition (Thus the saying 'cut your losses and let your profits run'). Personally I find it somehow conforming to square root law, minus error. Same meaning.

I know this factor from my own trend following trading trading, however my message here is not about trading but about the definition of God.

As God is everything that is too tiny or complex, too tiny physically or statistically that is beyound the grasp of human's control (e.g. Cancer, Accidents, conspiracy, …), or god can be too large that is also beyound our control (e.g. Tsunami), so we humans live in the middle of those two extremes, and we only have control over each other with limited natural resources, so yes God is very real, in fact God is a physical fact and not an entity living somewhere else with a face or a name, and unlike us that think independently and with limited connectivity, God is one huge complex chunk of earth as we know it, which include us, and therefore God is perfectly interconnected in a way that we cannot achieve even with our latest technological advancements, and that is how real and controlling God is, and that is how logical Trend Following is.

Thank you.

Regards,

Happy New Year

I am an avid reader of your work and admire it a great degree. I am writing this with hope that you would be able to throw more light on it, if you could.

A little background: I have been actively trading various financial markets for more than 17 years, but learned your name in 2011 through market wizards book (one can wonder under which rock I have been living, but in most part I was in [City]).

Since then I have consumed whatever has been out there and my own trading has improved and has been influenced by what you have said, written etc. I have two children. A boy (5) and a girl (1). I spend quite a bit of time thinking about what it is that I could do so as they are growing up, they don't end up wasting more than a decade figuring out what is profitable way to get engaged with markets or life in general.

Since I know that this desire should come to them from within, I can only provide a context that acts as a catalyst. In my conscious mind always fancy a photograph taken when they are a little kids sitting next to you and not show the pic to them till they are in high school or so. When I do show that picture to them, I tell them that their father have taken this picture for a reason, now go and figure out work of this man.

Situation: Couple of days ago, I had a dream. I am a vivid dreamer and can recall some dreams after days and months. In that dream, You, I and couple of other people are meeting in some office type place in a professional set up with dark cheery wood furniture and leather chairs etc. There is usual trading related conversation that not related to (I assume) what I want to find out.

At the very end of meeting, when I get a moment to talk with you on one on one near elevator, I mention my unusual request that I want my kids picture taken with you.

You seems to understand what and why I am asking and agree to it. You said that it is what you call intimacy-centric something. I am 6' 2" and 210 lbs and from what I can tell from pics of you seem to be of tall and big enough frame. In my dream, when we were standing near elevator, you seemed like very short and thin.

Qestions: Is there some metaphor here or there is nothing much to read into it and items from my conscious mind sleeping into subconscious mind and showing up in dreams? Why was such an emphasis on physical aspects of people (You and I) and place (big contract to topics where you live) ?

Regards,

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

I have been blessed this year with finally being confident about trading - a lot of it is thanks to your teachings. One of the best things you had suggested that I read Reminiscences of the Stock Operator, especially the lesson on 'Old Turkey' and the virtue of sitting has helped me a lot.

By end of November, my account was over 35% and probably the first time in my trading I felt so proud. I never talked about my trading performance until the first weekend in December when during a party when my friends asked I literally boasted that I was above 35% for the year.

As it would happen the market started going down the Monday after that. Until I had mentioned about my performance, I had never felt the uneasiness in sitting (at least until that point, I was trying to play right) but after that week I suddenly felt uneasy and the thought came to mind what will I say to my friends.

As luck would have it, the price went down to within 2% of my sell price and I thought why take a bigger loss, sell it now. Needless to say, I sold at the market low and by the time I got back in (i.e. the market gave a signal to get in), I had paid [amount] more for getting the same number of shares back. After digesting the whole thing I realized that the market has its own ways of providing us the lessons.

I went back to reading Reminiscences again and the line that stood out to me was the one about Old Turkey "... he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings" So my commitment for the new year is that I am not going to talk about my performance again.

What the last year taught me is that when I am not trying to prove to anyone it is way easier to be myself and follow the rules, the moment I start becoming a 'show off' it becomes much harder (at least for me) to maintain equanimity while trading.

I wanted to share this experience for the benefit of the other members of the Tribe. I have learnt a lot from other people's experiences and your response to them.

Thanks for everything.

Kind Regards

Dec 24, 2014

No Link

Ed,

Maybe it's just me, but I cannot follow the link in "Bike Ride" from FAQ on December 12, 2014.

Dec 24, 2014

Merry Christmas

Ed,

Thank you for your email. I enjoy reading it as it brings fond memories of Austin Tribe and Puerto Rico.

http://dreamofachild.org/2011/11/22/one-love-%E2%80%93-one-santa-jamaica/

I find that whenever I take on too much risk I always seem to lose money.

For example if I buy 20 contacts you would think this would help move the market in my direction. But if I take on too much risk using a highly leveraged account it seems my exposure is almost always exercised by other traders.

I have now resorted to trading a 0.2 contract as I think [number of] dollars is more what I can afford to trade with given my capital base.

Regards

Take care,

One notices broad progressions when moving from Location 1 to Location 4 on the continuum:

The number of self-referential thoughts decreases to zero.

Well-being increases to extremely high levels.

Problem-solving and planning becomes extremely efficient.

Negative emotions decrease and disappear, while positive emotions increase. Positive emotions then disappear too.

The focus on the present moment increases and then completely dominates experience.

Personal memories lose their emotional content and short-term memory experiences deficits.

A sense of union with the world and the divine increases and then disappears.

A sense that everything is perfect as it is increases.
The sense that one makes decisions and acts out of free will decreases and then disappears.

What bearing does Martin's continuum have for trading? For one whose experience falls in Location 4, he or she experiences no fear, no blame, no euphoria, and no greed. Emotions do not interfere with the execution of a trading system nor with one's judgement of market action. One is perfectly objective, acts without self-doubt, and is anchored in the present moment. There is no focus on past hurts or failures nor is one's mind clouded by hopes of outsize winnings. There is no sense of anyone who is trading and trading flows effortlessly.

Thank you for your insight about my use of metaphor and allusion in the service of shyness. I now find myself enjoying thinking about my shyness and how it may have protected me from other experiences.

I also find that I really enjoy the use of metaphor and allusion. I experience it as mysterious, not just as a way to cover up more direct expression of feelings.

I use it in speaking with others and I believe it allows us each to find our own place within the image, so we can be together and still separate.

This "together and separate" describes one of the qualities of great sex, according to Perel and also to me.

One way to experience this is to keep your eyes open during sex and to look into the eyes of the other person.

Doing this can feel very uncomfortable at first; for me, it heightens the experience of being fully present with an "other" who is fully present as well.

Wildlife, indeed!

Ed Say: I wonder if you can tell me more about your application and how you plan to use a flat list of stock symbols, in order of strength.

Here is my process:

- Fetch daily quotes for 7000+ stocks at EOD everyday
- Add them to my historical list (90 days)
- I hit a CGI program which calculates the strongest sloping ones(last few days - think 5 days) and add the ones I find interesting to my watchlist (yep, discretionally :-) )
- During the day, I keep a watch on my watchlist and watch for moves up/down and trade them. Usually I have 5-10 which I have position in(stocks & etfs). No day-trading. Small positions. Don't look at news. Price and Volume only (lately, not looking at volume also). Always have stops.

- In the last 10 years, I have not lost money. Not that I have gained a lot :-)

Some interesting numbers:
Largest gain : $15000
Largest loss : $800
Winning percentage : 40%

I am learning as the years go and few trends during the year makes up for the losses.

The ones that I had sent are from few months back and may not match your list as my list is mostly discretionary from the list that I generate. I want to use your list to see the strongest stocks and look for possible entry into them and hopefully some will trend :-)

I do not need the EOD data from you. I plan on getting that somehow(jstock does a pretty good job but need some time to figure it out - automation/java/etc..)

thank you

Dear Mr. Seykota,

Trust you must be doing great.​ ​I ​have read your "Market Wizards" interview many times & I really admire you for your methodical approach to markets.

I am a IIT-IIM Graduate with more than 22 years of experience in India Capital Markets. I have been able to predict the market turns with close to 90% accuracy with verifiable track record. I appear on CNBC, ZEE Business & ET-NOW regularly. I am really passionate towards my profession. I run a boutique Alternative Investment Management firm specializing in generating positive returns irrespective of Market Direction.

We are proficient in all types of Technical Analysis based trading.

1. Conventional Pattern Recognition Based Trading
2. Computerized Algorithm Based Trading
3. Predictive Methodology Based Analysis
4. Behavioral Studies based on Market's Psychological Profile

I have a proposal to launch [Name] Fund using hugely diversified strategies for trading in multiple asset classes such as different Global Equity Indices, Commodities & Currencies. As we will be using just 30% fund in trading, more than 60% funds will be used in Global Arbitrage to generate fixed income for balancing the risk.

We are fully confident that we will be able to give more than 20% positive returns per annum in USD terms with less than 10% Equity drawdown.

We wish to create a Global Hedge Fund which specializes in generating super normal positive returns every year.

This structure has humongous potential to become a hugely successful Fund in just 2 to 3 years. I have 100% conviction in my abilities to deliver the real performance. An association with your company will give us everything what we are looking for.

I look forward to hear positively from you soon to make my dream into reality. I promise you to give my 100% efforts to deliver more than the promise.

Thanks & warm regards,

Thank you for suggesting the video of Esther Perel speaking about the challenge of experiencing sexuality and security in one relationship (December 7, "TTP in Couples Therapy").

The video speaks to a problem I experience in my own intimate relationships and in those of the couples I counsel. I never connected the dots in the way that she does, and the result for me has rocked my world, really!

I begin to read her book, "Mating in Captivity", and find jaw-dropping insights on almost every page.

I feel like I enter a jungle that I have always found intimidating, yet intriguing, and have never ventured into it before. Her book allows me to feel that I travel with a guide who knows the terrain, and knows that nothing bad will happen there.

The jungle no longer intimidates me, and I can notice the lush vegetation and the teeming wildlife. I feel like I am now wildlife, as well.

Now that my fear shifts to openness and curiosity, I do not doubt that I will meet others who want to explore the jungle along with me.

Reading FAQ always stimulates my mind and my emotions, and this time it's affecting my body as well.

Thank you!

Sinceriously,

Do you use a leveraged account or non-leveraged account when trading CFD's on the currency markets.

Regards,

Hello Ed,

>Thank you for raising this issue.

>Yes, I can change the page in various ways.

>I wonder if you can tell me more about your application and how you plan to use a flat list of stocks symbols, in order of >strength.

Thanks a lot Ed.

I have bunch of scripts which gets the quotes from finviz (before that from yahoo), the daily quotes and during the day gets the current quotes and then calculates the strongest.

From this list, I add them to my list of stocks to watch and it charts them (finviz charts). So everyday I just watch for movers and follow your simple trend following methods.

So the list keeps growing and if I find something that is not of interest, I just delete them(all from UI) from the list. I also have scripts(well they are all HTML/Javascript with backend writter in Perl) which tracks my portfolio over multiple accounts over many years (10+) and all stored in mysql db.

This was all free :-) Now finviz charges for the quotes and yahoo quotes are not that reliable. So I lost my ability to trade effectively (hopefully not for long). I actually had coded up your exercise http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/Trends/index.htm long time ago :-)

So with your list I will set up an automatic script which reads from your site at a specified time every day and imports into my list and that would be good starting point until I get my capability back ;-)

I have attached a sample of my UI. The chart is from finviz (not editable).

thank you

Strong Patterns

Could you please tell me the formula you use to get the charts on http://www.seykota.com/TT_Chartbook/stocks/Default.HTML ?

Would it be possible for you to put some text on the page so that an automatic script can read the page and get the list? At present, the stock symbol is part of the image and is not possible to parse the page and retrieve it.

some examples:

<p>$stock_symbol</p>
<h2>$stock_symbol</h2>

or you could make a table
<table>
<tr>$stock_symbol</tr>
..
</table>

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

thank you

In Summer 2013 I realise that my system has no target and that it shouldn't surprise me that my results show no particular direction.

I work with an NLP coach to work out why this might be and think about the feelings I am avoiding.

The feelings are 'not being good enough / not belonging' and 'not trying in case of failure'. I choose a target of doubling my account size with a drawdown tolerance of 50%.

I rewrite my position size code in a way that I hope fits my target and to take advantage of trends when I experience them. On 14/7/13 I put my new system into place.

I experience a number of feelings with the new system and make errors. I make a number of process improvements, in particular in monitoring performance and correcting variance.

I check my account now and find that my account has increased by 105.4% since 14/7/13.

I now experience some feelings of blankness which I realise is a signal to set new target criteria. I have noticed the feeling for a few weeks.

I think of attending your Oct 09 workshop and smile. Thank you Ed for your work, it has helped me change my life for the better in many ways and I feel great gratitude towards you for sharing your research on TTP and trading.

Best regards,

Merry Christmas and happy New Year!

Thank you for supporting my growth over 2014.

I feel grateful for the time you put into TTP, the insights that you provide via FAQ and the growth that it allows for those who follow and commit to the principles.

What a wonderful thing you do!

Lotsa love.

Spotting Feelings

Chief,

Thank you for illustrating me how you spot feelings. It triggers my own feelings about backtesting. I might also need to take my feeling of uncertainty, trust or perfection to my tribe.

Thanks,