Feb 10, 2014

Govopoly On-Line Models Don't All Work

Ed,

Greetings,

just completed Govopoly and was looking fwd to toying with the models online but I find only a few are available?

Feb 9, 2014

Donchian Guidelines

Ed,

I share with you the paper we discussed.

I look forward to working together on more programming ideas.

Feb 9, 2014

Wants to Advertise on FAQ

Hello,

I am writing to you because I was hoping to place a custom in text ad on one of the pages of seykota.com. The ad's I have consist of a few sentences added within the content of the page and don't really stick out too much. I can work with you on placement of the ad and use PayPal for payment. If you think this will interest you at all please let me know and I will get to work on a detailed ad proposal for you to take a look at that will explain everything I'd like to do. Thanks a bunch!

Feb 9, 2014

Estimating Chances and Impacts of Major Events

Ed,

I share I learn of new dynamics of the market. Warren Buffett and Howard Marks like to think of themselves as "value" investors. They buy when the market express excess risk aversion and overshoots intrinsic value.

If a commodity rises in price, one can ask is the price rise reflecting a fundamental supply/demand imbalance, or is the price movement just reflecting an overshoot (to the upside) of intrinsic value?

It is postulated that human beings express excess risk aversion in the presence of profit. This is stated as a need to be a winner rather than an objective review of risk and reward at the time of the profit taking. Conversely humans take more risk when they are losing in the hope of turning it around.

Swing traders like to buy short term dips and sell short term spikes. There rational is price overshoots and undershoots so they scalp the price movement.

If a trend begins, the swing traders may have a short term counter trend influence and attempt to kill the price movement. But if the commodity has a true supply/demand problem, the swing traders actions are like gas on the fire.

Lastly, why do humans carry insurance for routine medical events that may not amount to more than a grocery or car repair bill, and we create a massive industry of billing and review to administer these routine payments? Answer - we over estimate the chance of a catastrophic health event and underestimate the impact of one. Therefore we are over insured for the routine and under insured for the catastrophic.

This sounds similar to the lack of big trends in the commodity markets the past few years.

Cheers,

Feb 9, 2014

Workshop Follow-up Report

Dear Support Team,

Thank you for your support with my workshop follow up. Thanks also to those who provide comments which I invariably find insightful and helpful.

"Work hard on my trading systems for three hours a day: See what feelings come up. Report monthly to my support team and FAQ."

I average just under 3 hours per day on my trading systems for the last month and 3.02 hours per day since the workshop.

I have the rewrite of much of my trading code almost complete. The total lines of code is down 40% from the old version and I find it easier to understand and work on.

It feels good to focus on doing things right. I am also starting to do this with other projects such as physics - moving directly forward along the path to knowledge rather than taking lots of interesting detours.

Progress on my strength and fitness slows but does not stop as I amp up my diet somewhat. My progress on physics and the ancient world also slows but continues at a slower pace. I prioritize the trading work and health related objectives. My health metrics all stay good. I learn a few small things that help incrementally.

I feel frustrated about this slowing of progress outside the trading work. But then I figure that as long as I get to the optimum weight and then keep the excess off, I pay the price only once then I am set. This is a cost I feel happy to pay.

My wife has a health scare, not yet resolved but probably not serious. She looks very anxious. I hold her and tell her I am with her all the way, which I am. She seems to find this reassuring.

My new PC blew up (loud bang and a flash) and needs repairs under warranty. I handle the issue calmly and switch to my other PC. The lack of drama seems to be a flow-on from my earlier hot seat about how I feel about losing things. One benefit of all this is I find a good local computer shop.

This week I am taking a big long-standing issue to tribe - something I have put off for a long time.

The local chapter of a community group I was involved with previously, where I used to live, has kicked off here, with some encouragement from me. This moves forward one of my community objectives for this year.

Next report 10 March 2014.

Do you follow macro trends? Ok wise up- pay attention to the message of Ed Seykota @TradingTribe 39thDay.com /cc @TradingTribe

Ed,

Has he taught them that there is more to life than sitting in front of a computer playing games?

Harmonica Man Video

Feb 9, 2014

Austin Tribe Application

Dear Ed,

I commit to attend all sessions of the Austin Tribe and to contribute to FAQ after every meeting. I also commit to remain open to surprise, to new awareness and to full engagement with the other members and with the process. Please let me know if you want anything further from me in order to confirm my participation.

Sincerely,

Feb 8, 2014

Austin Tribe Application

Dear Ed:

I would like to apply for the upcoming Tribe series in Austin.

Best Regards,

Feb 8, 2014

Michael Covel Interview / Breathing

Dear Ed,

I notice a FAQ reference to an interview of Ed with Michael Covel. Interested I find the link and tune in.

I catch the words and listen to Ed's voice and notice his breathing.

I connect with Ed's words, with his breathing and with my new breathing pattern.

I connect Ed's duckweed example with my breathing and my unnoticed hyperventilation.

Based on this insight, I enroll with a local instructor for a 5 week breathing training course and follow the new trend as I adapt to new information. I feel happy and relaxed with my new trend recognition system.

A passage leaps from the page of current book I read.

Breathing Patterns

The average healthy adult breathes approximately twelve times each minute when resting, with about half a liter of air each time, resulting in 4 to 6 liters of air.4'5 If a person breathes twenty times a minute with half a liter of air, the volume will have doubled, yet virtually no one detects this because taking a breath every three seconds, instead of every five, is a very subtle change.

Not everyone increases the amount of air breathed each minute by speeding up the breathing pattern. Instead, some people find themselves repeatedly sighing or yawning. Others use their strong upper chest muscles instead of diaphragmatic breathing, or they may simply be breathing through their mouth, which is a considerably larger aperture than the nostrils. No matter how it is done, hyperventilation usually goes unnoticed because breathing is such an automatic process.

Feb 8, 2014

Feelings about Assimilation (see previous)

Ed,

You asked, in response to link to an article which talked about how American resent having decisions about their lives made in D.C. and not in their local communities, how I felt about the article.

I feel disappointment and sadness when I think about how the current operating system of our politics and economy is geared towards ever greater assimilation to central control at the national and ultimately international level. Governments now have the technological means to support such a vast network of centralized control. They have the ability and means to know, nearly in real-time what any individual who carries an electronic device thinks, feels, plans, and hopes for. They can know where you are, where you are going, and where you have been. They know what you like and what you dislike and shun. They know who your friends are, and whom you ignore.

How this capability is used is up in the air. In the hands of a benevolent, representative government comprised of leaders with disinterested morality, it is not a concern. In the hands of a corrupt government, seeking to impose its will on the people, to control the people and limit their freedoms of action, it can be a very dangerous tool.

I feel sadness because I believe we are on the cusp of if not already there of the establishment of a tyranny of assimilation. I believe that the founders of this country were aware of the dangers in a democracy that they often evolved this way, and they included many checks and balances in the system of government they created in order to distribute the power among the branches, and to encourage within government an element of conflict to slow it down. We celebrated last year the 100th anniversary of what I believe is the worst year in the history of our the Constitutional Republic, 1913. That year, 1) the Constitutional amendment which allowed Congress to impose a tax on personal income (then 1%, considered a bit onerous at the time), 2) amendment which changed how Senators were selected from state legislature appointments to statewide election, and 3) Federal Reserve created. That was an epochal year and a progressive impulse which hastened the slide towards a democratic tyranny which the founders feared most.

I believe in the organizational principle of Subsidiarity (which is related to Occam's razor): that is, organizations are best organized so that decision are made at the lowest possible level. The founders encoded this principle into the design of the Federal republic, where the national government would have certain defined charter of action and the rest would be the responsibility of the several states. At the state level, the state would have certain responsibilities, limited, but the rest devolved to the county level. and so on. The trend towards assimilation upends and undermines the wisdom of subsidiarity.

The sadness I feel is that the experiment embarked upon by the founders of this country will ultimately fail to uphold some key principles they held dear, and which I value, which are individual liberty, and rights (which have also been systematically increasingly undermined and circumscribed over the course of two centuries.)

Cheers,

Feb 8, 2014

A Thing of Beauty

Chief Ed,

The book is a thing of beauty.

It is absolutely great.

I give it a 10 out of 10.

My trading account is growing in 2014, in a big way, partly as a result of simply listening very closely ("attending") to what you have to say. I enjoy being in the right instruments ("place") at the right time.

Thanks for the Govopoly book. It is a very useful work. I like how I can hand it to any reasonably intelligent person and experience them enjoying it, and understanding it.

I like how people, who do not report enjoying economics, report enjoying your book. It's extremely cool. At home, I leave it out. When friends & family come over I wait, and when they signal interest (by picking the book up) we talk.

When everything is in alignment, there is nothing to do. Thank you for your book.

My Best Regards,

Feb 7, 2014

Cause and Effect

Hi Ed,

Ed does not believe in The Cause and Effect Model.

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/econowmics/cause_effect/index.htm

and then he says Intention = results.

Isn't Intention = cause and Result = effect.

Ramesh Balsekar, follower of Ramana Maharashi says, 'You can will what you want but you cannot will what you will'. So in that sense intentions = results and you cannot intend what you intend.

http://mysticfunds.blogspot.in/2014/02/scarry-and-or-liberating-hypothesis.html

warm regards,

Feb 7, 2014

Crab-Leg-O-Phone

Ed,

Check out this instrument:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlyCLbt3Thk

Feb 7, 2014

Going for Win-Win

Hi Ed,

In response to my FAQ entry of 11/28/13, you wrote "In case establishing rapport and sharing your feelings with the coach doesn't work, you can always resort to other devices."

Thanks for your thoughtful response. I've thought on this a bit since then and keep coming to the same thing.

What if establishing rapport is not something I want to do with that person? What if I don't care about sharing my feelings with them?

I was married when I first started going to the Tribe. Being open, sharing my feelings with my then bride quickly accelerated divorce filings. And I am grateful for that - the relationship was extremely dysfunctional and I am no longer in it to the extent that that is possible when you have kids together.

What I think I learned is that some relationships will never go anywhere, and to spend energy on these is a waste. You just can't be close with everyone it seems and the resources - the time and energy - are much better spent on the relationships that have legs, have meaning, are supportive, can blossom.

The nature of my relationships now vs. before ever practicing TTP are quite different. Now I tend to be with people who support me and whom I in turn support, and tend to not be with people who don't support me / my methods/ etc.

The non supportive, non acknowledging ones I just let slide into the abyss. To pursue them, to me, would be engaging in a non-productive drama. And why bother? The relationships I have now are very good and I put energy there. That's what I want, good ones even if that means they are fewer.

This is how I feel right now. This could change as I grow and I acknowledge that embedded in this may be fear on my part - I am feeling a lot of fear lately.

I don't know what is right for sure, but right now I really don't care to spend time with / on 'coaches' that are still stuck in High School, people who only call when they want something, and all the other vampires out there. There are tons of very cool people to share this time and energy with. Ride winners and cut losers applies not only to trading.

Thanks,

Feb 6, 2014

Stomach in Free Fall

Dear Ed,

I listen to your podcast with Michael Covel. I feel my stomach free fall.

This is how I feel the day Lehman fell, Sept. 22, 2008. "This is going to get ugly", I mumbled at my ex-cubicle. Our sales floor was fired January 5th, 2009.

The system changed, it's different. I felt myself free fall, nauseous, scared, and excited. I realize the world's system changed. I accept, adapt and enjoy life. Thank you for everything.

Feb 6, 2014

Assimilation

Ed,

This article addresses people resenting decisions about their lives being made in D.C. and not their local communities.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/370420/problems-power-inequality-jonah-goldberg

Feb 6, 2014

Don't Mess with Texas

Ed,

Your secret is out.

For the rest of you pockets of the old USA still exists.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CDFxeB7Y-s&sns=em

Feb 6, 2014

Feelings of Loss

Dear Ed,

I want to report on my life now. I notice there is a Breathwork weekend planned for April 2014. I have a feeling of “I want to attend” and I imagine what the weekend will be like. I kind of run a movie of it in my head based on the 2 breathwork weekends that I do attend.

Then I have fear. It is a fear of flying. I do not like to fly, so much so that I look for reasons not to make trips. If there is the slightest of reasons I will not plan a trip. I think what I most do not like is the feeling of giving up control. I just sit there in a jet and have no control over the situation, if the ride gets rough I can’t even get up to use the bathroom. Then there is the chance of not making it out alive.

I do not like any of this; I feel tension in my hands arms and forehead as I type. If I do apply to the breathwork weekend I notice that I am to write an essay “what I intend to accomplish”, I am not sure what that even looks like at this moment. I can rattle off issues / drama that seems to run my life.

On the relationships front I do not have any intimacy centric relationships. As a child I am taught the control model (as is my wife) and teach it to my kids. I have flashes of the intimacy centric model with my kids, but not with my wife or friends.

I seem to use avoidance as a coping skill. It shows up in relating with others especially my wife. I avoid confrontation and will not bring up a subject that I know might cause another person (many times family) to be upset.

I use this in the markets as well. At times I will not take a loss at the stop point and maybe 70 - 80 % of the time this gets me a better exit, but the 20 – 30 % turns into a huge loss and then the avoidance kicks in. I do not even want to look at it, when I do get out, I want to find a way to make it back right now and on and on.

In regards to trading I already mention the avoidance issue. Additionally, after years of writing code and testing ideas I do not have a well thought out and tested system. Every time I think I have a well thought out system, I do the code and it does not seem to hold up over years of back testing. Yet I know that at least some of the ideas are used by others to trade the markets and seem sound.

So I gravitate to a method that follows trends and that I seem to not be able to prove on the computer. Thus I question it at key points, Entry, Exit with loss, Exit with win.

A current example is coffee. My method is long coffee with a wide trailing stop. I however cut my winner short 2 days ago. I remember seeing coffee up very big in relation to all of the recent previous bars and my profit being very large compared to recent wins. I also thought about how coffee recently sold off big when it has a very large up bar and with that I have a fear of giving back this large profit since I have not really proven my trailing stop. So to avoid feeling this I exit, thinking I will buy it back when it sells off hard. Then it trades in a narrow range (intra-day) and my gut tells me it is going up, especially when I see the news on weather in Brazil.

Then the whole fear and avoidance thing plays out again as I vacillate between, do I buy it back at a higher price or do I short it to play the coming sell off, so I sit and watch it extend very big again. At first I feel anger over this, then I feel left out and I feel I am missing out, I feel sad.

I have worked long and hard to benefit from these trades and I cut my winner short. I am almost dizzy now like in a fog, I remember these feeling when I am young not being part of the “in” crowd and not feeling worthy. I feel shame, I feel I do not deserve, I am embraced and I hate these feelings. I just thought about this for a few minutes and I get all of these feelings from a closed out big winner. Is this what I want?

I want to update FAQ on my 16 year old son who I write about “Friday, December 3, 2010 – Checking in” under the family section. Since that post he has received two more blows to the head, the last one happens Nov 2012. With that concussion my son seemed to lose everything he knew and enjoyed in his life, from sports to academics to friends. He currently is unable to attend a full day of school and has concussion symptoms many days (it is seems a little better lately). His sleep patterns are very erratic.

He is diagnosed with Cognitive disorder NOS, Adjustment Disorder with mixed disturbance of emotions, major depression and a learning disability. He started self-medicating with marijuana, stating that it is the only thing that helps with his symptoms and the doctors we send him to do not help. He was caught at school with the drug and stolen goods. We had to deal with the school board and the court system. He has explosive outbursts with both his mother and I and expressed in one of them that he hates me, really, really hates me and wants my wife and I to split up.

Before this head trauma he is a top student with all A’s in advanced classes and an even more advanced athlete enjoying success with three sports at the regional and national levels.

The Kids he played sports with, and was either their equal or more skilled, have already received scholarships to D1 colleges. Also, it seems his connection with me is lost as well. We did sports, school work and fishing together. At times we would just talk. After these injuries for a while he would not even speak to me, it is better now. In my opinion he is not willing to feel anything associated with all of this loss. I too have not completely felt the feelings around this. I feel a tremendous sense of loss and am sad.

Doing (or watching him) sports with him was total joy for me. To say I loved it seems to not say it strong enough, this kid truly had a gift. He was driven, had determination, a great attitude, very serious, a great work ethic and loved to practice. Now he does not even seem like the same person. He is almost the opposite of what I just wrote. I have a hard time accepting him as he is. He has a trail of drama the last few years that could fill a book. I want him to change back. I especially want him to stop the use of anything non-prescription. I want him to sleep at night and stay awake during the day. I want him to be kind and polite to others. I want him to go to school, get credit and put forth an effort. I want him to be honest, telling the truth and to share how he feels. But mostly I want him to pick a non-contact sport and finish out the high school years as a top athlete. What I am saying is I want him to follow my plan and I want to control him.

I read this over a couple of times and I feel I should write about how I want to learn not to control others or what my intentions are, etc. Right now what I can say is that my intentions are to finish reading Govopoly, to read FAQ and to report to FAQ.

Thank you to all for receiving me and to Ed for TTP!

Regards,

Feb 5, 2014

Partisan Politics

Ed,

Great book and great podcast with Michael Covel. The podcast ended and I have three additional pages of notes in my notebook.

Your interview nicely complements your book. “No partisan politics”, no picking sides, no blaming anyone. Just pointing out anomalies and inconsistencies in the current system to those with an open mind.

I enjoyed your blunt and honest comments on how you cleaned up your thinking which led to understanding.

I think everyone should listen to your interview and read your book at least twice.

Regards.

Feb 5, 2014

Covel Interview

Ed --

I enjoy listening to the Michael Covel interview linked to in FAQs.

My imagination is piqued by thinking of cancer as an assimilation process that must be caught early by screening instead of too late by symptoms.

I also like your remarks about understanding and adapting to Govopoly instead of emotionally reacting to it and then seeking medicative "solutions".

I look forward to the Austin Tribe Spring 2014 meetings.

Feb 5, 2014

Assimilation Corroboration

Hi Ed,

I see a series of articles below that might be appropriate for your site under assimilation.

Feb 5, 2014

Day-Trade Challenge

Hi Ed,

Here are my trading results from the past 3 months. The results are in sim until Jan 13th when I go live and the Jan chart is only live results (even though mixing in the sim it'd be about the same). All results include commissions. Please let me know if you have any questions or suggestions and hope to hear from you soon.

Thanks,

Feb 4 , 2014

Austin Tribe Application

Hello Ed,

I want to apply for the Austin Tribe Series.

I commit to attend all ten meetings or prearranged absences. I commit to send a report after each meeting to FAQ. I will be there whenever you say they will begin.

Thanks,

Feb 4, 2014

Podcast

Dear Ed,

I have been listening to your podcast with Michael Covel. It was very good to hear your thoughts on assimilation and your book Govopoly. The specific example of the assimilation of Detroit's wealth into DC, reminds me of the law of conservation of energy.

It was also a first hand experience of your jovial attitude. I thoroughly enjoyed your talk, thank you for entertaining and generating my interest in Govopoly.

regards

Feb 4, 2014

San Francisco Tribe

Hello,

I am curious if Mr. Seykota is still managing the Trading Tribe and / or has information about local tribe members in San Francisco? I am interested in meeting folks in the San Francisco area who can appreciate that time is elastic (e.g., gamma traders) and / or are otherwise musically inclined and possibly enlightened individuals.

Thanks kindly for your time.

Feb 4, 2014

Trades Days

Hi Chief,

I want to apply for 2014 Austin Tribe series. My mangers are nice to allow me to trade working days. |-)

I have a spring vacation already booked to take the family to Hawaii on the week of April 12-20, also two weeks summer vacation to the east coast or Yellowstone Park. There's no other potential absences periods.

I commit to attend all meetings, or pre-arrange absences. I commit to send a report after each meeting to FAQ.

Thank you for your consideration,

Feb 4, 2014

Austin Tribe

Hi, Ed —

I am pleased to apply for the Spring Tribe Series.
I commit to attend all meetings ... or pre-arrange absences.
I commit to send a report after each meeting to FAQ.

Regards,

Feb 4, 2014

Austin Tribe

Ed,

I commit to the Austin Tribe Ground Rules. I request permission to attend the Spring 2014 Series.

Feb 4, 2014

Remove the Doc

Hi Ed, please can you remove this doc from your website directory. I'm nolonger living in Qatar or participating, but Google still list this if I look for my email address.

http://www.seykota.com/tt/directory/qatar_doha.doc

Regards,

Feb 3, 2014

Beginner

Ed

Got the [Govopoly] book last week.

Would be nice to touch base sometime. I am a beginning trader that could use some help.

Thanks!!

Feb 3, 2014

Austin Tribe Application

Ed,

I apply to Austin Tribe Series Spring 2014.

I commit to attend all meetings.

I commit to report my experience to FAQ after each meeting.

Feb 3, 2014

Boredom

Hi Ed,

When I was younger I was energetic and ignorant. These characteristics combined to create a feeling of wonder and excitement about the challenges of life.

Now I am older, less energetic and aware of my ignorance. I can't help seeing the potential pains of any new endeavor.

It seems the accumulation of lessons about what not to do in life and work eliminates dramas. The byproduct of less drama is success and boredom.

I wonder how you deal with boredom?

Feb 2, 2014

Breathwork Weekend - April 11-13, Bastrop, TX

Dear Ed,

For the fourth consecutive year, people around the world will breathe as one on April 12, Global Holotropic Breathwork Day.

This day recognizes and supports both an individual and a collective movement toward wholeness, presence and engagement with the world. Many sites will be conducting holotropic breathwork workshops during this weekend.

I [notice you] hosting one of your Breathwork Weekends to coincide with this worldwide event.

I know I am interested and would be happy to attend / assist.

Breathwork is a profound experience and most definitely fosters wholeness and engagement in life.

Sincerely,

Dear Mr. Ed,

Instead of the jumpsuit cyber barbies (God help us) I probably would have used a more substantial picture like a rudderless boat on a sea of cyber nothingness. A three legged chair would have been a metaphor as well since there is clearly a dimension missing.

Just trying to add depth and provoke thought for the common good.

Feb 2, 2014

Regarding Lame see previous

Dear Ed,

I feel curious as I read the contribution from an FAQ reader who says that your comments on relationship issues are "lame."

Since I also [contribute] items about relationship issues, I feel qualified to offer my opinion about your comments.

I find. almost invariably, that your response provokes in me greater awareness, insight, and even the occasional "aha". Your comments are profound and can be subtle, perhaps too subtle for someone looking for entertainment such as wit or "magic" (though I find your image selection for that particular response pretty witty, personally).

Come to think of it, when I feel fully open to new ideas and emotions, especially the ones I might not "want" to have, your responses can indeed feel like magic to me.

So, I really look forward to the reader's contributions that will improve upon your "lame" responses because they will have to be doozies!

Sincerely,

Feb 2. 2014

Cutting Losses

Ed,

Im a trend follower with a simple strategy and when i get discouraged or if i think im the wrong path I listen to your song "the whipsaw song" and i realize that yes i am on the correct path..and i remember the most important rule...cut your losses quickly

so thank you very much!!!

Feb 2, 2014

Austin Tribe Application

Ed --

I apply to the Austin Tribe Spring 2014 Meetings.

I commit to attend all meetings and I pre-arrange my absences.

I commit to send a report after each meeting to FAQ.

Feb 2, 2014

Java

Hi Ed,

To run the models I need the latest version of Java which I download and install. Now I am getting Java applications are blocked by your security settings. message and I look it up on the Java site which has a workaround and also so info for the developer. I am able to run the first two models with the workaround, the last one (pendulum) does not run and gives a "nullpointerexception" error. The link to Java site follows:

http://www.java.com/en/download/help/java_blocked.xml

I am still reading the book and am still loving it! Thanks again. I notice in FAQ mentions of publishing "The Traders Window" I love the idea and offer my support and encouragement.

Thank You for the work you do!

Feb 1, 2014

Lame

Ed,

Other than the TT "pick"s related to making money that you are famous for, you could use a more creative, fun, philosophical, and intelligent approach to relationship issues.

I would love to be a contributor for a month and bring some life, wit, fun, magic and outward focused compassion to the TT. How about it? It is currently a little lame.

Feb 1, 2014

Invoice

I now have my invoice; I am looking forward to examining your book (THE 39TH DAY) very carefully.

Kind Regards,

Feb 1, 2014

Frustration

Hi Ed,

First tribe meeting of the year; we drum, check in and share current thoughts and feelings. Chief then runs a process where we each share goals for the year. Chief shares ideas on structuring objectives in quantifiable terms. Post meeting a tribe member emails tribe with a set of solid objectives. This is a breakthrough for [Name]!

We then run through a series of hot seats processes (no rocks process). I feel as a Tribe we deviate from the TTP meeting structure with a lot of analysis from the tribe instead of feelings from the hot seater.

This makes me feel frustration as we only have a small window for Tribe work. However, Tribe members all bring up dramas that are deeply personal. I consider this a success as it seems that once you can talk about something at tribe it becomes easier to explore in hot seat/rocks mode.

I wonder how I can contribute to creating a stronger field of acknowledgment for my tribe members?

Post meeting I am glad that I experience my feeling of frustration at Tribe. I think about my lack of progress on my objectives and the limit of time I have to achieve.

Thank you Ed for providing the TTP framework and for triggering my curiosity about the centrality of purpose. I am learning. It feels powerful.

Feb 1, 2014

Govopoly Review

Ed, I just finish reading "Govopoly," I really enjoy reading it. The way you format the book, with easy language spaced-out nicely and with lots of engaging pictures, makes it especially enjoyable to read. And yes, of course, you make fascinating points and observations throughout the book. And yes, it's a bit of a depressing read as you suggest at the end, but I'm better off experiencing the pain of understanding now before the real pain explodes and the charade ends abruptly.

I wonder how the Assimilation Cycle will play out in other countries. Seems like Japan, China, Russia, much of Europe, and India all walk in lock-step with the U.S. and our Assimilation Cycle. Heck, it seems like those other countries are closer to the end-game than we are. Boy, to the extent the U.S. Assimilation Cycle co-depends on our trading partners' Assimilation Cycles...yikes.

I wonder what countries score "super healthy" on the Freedom Index. I might look into learning more about places that value personal freedom, tool making, and integrity.

I think about "Govopoly" and what it means. I like how you repeat Govopoly's meaning more than just a few times. New words like that feel fuzzy in my head as I begin to understand what they mean. Same goes for "moral hazard." Sure, I read about moral hazard for many years, yet I value you explaining what moral hazard is more than just a few times. Hey wait a second, you do that with the word "economist," too! Yeah, I like that, thanks.

While I read "Govopoly" I wonder about the fractal nature of businesses and the economy. Yep, our economy moves in cycles, the largest of which seems to be the Assimilation Cycle. And within that economy I think about various companies, companies that may or may not be part of the Govopoly. It seems like when I interview for a new job that sometimes the folks doing the interviewing are more interested in hiring someone who will make them look good and not be a professional threat to them. They want to hire someone competent, but not too competent. Seems like there's a lot of turf protecting going on. Govopoly seems fractal in that sense to me.

System dynamics seems like something really cool that I need to learn a lot more about. I wonder if I might take some undergrad CS classes with the intention of applying to Georgia Tech's on-line MS of CS program. Seems like many of the jobs out there demand coding skills. I might like to do that. Georgia Tech, like MIT, seems to want to remove barriers to learning for those who really want to learn. Same goes for Sal Khan's Academy. Man, I get emotional thinking about open learning and Sal Khan's Academy! Here's a guy who wants to help people learn! MIT does, too. Yeah, let's get the word out, let's teach and learn. I like that.

Your point about "triggers" and how they're just a small bit of the dynamics of a system, that's interesting to think about. I think about a simple trend following system that "triggers" off of a breakout. I wonder if there's more to identifying a money-making trend. Seems like the breakout, while certainly very important, seems like that breakout might just be a trigger for that system's dynamics. Yep, there's probably more I can do to build a good trend following system. I feel like learning more about system dynamics of trends. Learning more there might make my trend following system more profitable with less risk.

Thinking more about economists and how most sell out to their political "employers," I think about an economist named Steve Keen out of Australia and how he builds dynamic economic systems. I might go re-read some of Steve's papers, he seems like he might be on board with the Assimilation Cycle way of thinking.

I wonder now who might be a real good second generation or third generation system dynamics teacher. Yeah, Senor Forrester was first gen. You're second gen. Who wants to lead the way next? Might be good to learn a few names. Seems like I can do some research there.

I like this line: "Extrapolation actually works pretty well to predict the position of a heavy freight train rolling on a straight, level track." That makes me laugh.

I also like this line: "I like to define trend trading as the systematic attrition of capital with occasional large gains." That seems so right.

I also like this line: "...you have to forget trying to figure things out and learn, instinctively, to buy into strong trends whether or not you understand them, and particularly when you do not." That last part is the best part.

And this thought: "[Learn to do what you like to do] in a duckweed pond." Hey, duckweed covers 100% of Turtle Pond up here in NYC last summer. This year I might take a picture of it every day to keep track of things.

Ed, thanks so much for writing your new book. I enjoy reading it and learn lots. Mostly I learn it's okay to watch something you love stumble and then fall to pieces. I may not like it but maybe I ride some profitable trends and protect my family along the way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTsRTU9C3I8 ("Stumble" by R.E.M. - The first 50 seconds is all you need.)

Sincerely,

P.S. Page 270, sixth line down, first word... I feel like a stickler for pointing it out but for some reason believe you'd like to know.

Feb 1, 2014

Receives Govopoly

Dear Ed,

I receive the book on 1-31-2014, my birthday. A very nice birthday gift and I have a feeling of excitement and wonder at what I will learn. I am in the process of digging into it now, so far I love it - and will report back.

Thanks for the gift!

Regards

Feb 1, 2014

Support Team Report

Dear Support Team,

Today is my first day outside the consulting firm where I work for many years. I start my new venture with a lot of energy and it gains traction relatively fast. I already acquire my first project which commences this Monday, and have several additional "warm" leads in the pipeline.

I find great joy in owning my time once again - and having the freedom to choose who I work with, as well as which projects I do.

I make zero progress on Back-Testing since the December 1st update, however feel ready to pick this up again with the element of steady work, and more importantly "working with my heart," taken care of.

Given that I decide to trade only my own risk capital at this stage (instead of for select investors), my TT Workshop Project becomes a lot simpler too.

I define completion now simply as finalizing a set of trading system parameters to stick to, validated through thorough Back-Testing - and set a new deadline for completion by April 1st.

I appreciate the feedback I receive from some of you around the importance of keeping specific dates and time lines in the project plan.

I intend to provide an additional monthly update on March 1st, before sharing the final results and project closing on April 1st.

Thank you all for your continued support.