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Ed Seykota's FAQ |
May 31, 2015
Annoying Distractions
Hi Chief,
The blinder of the window by my desk often falls off and I see glare on my computer screen. I often have to close it and it falls open again later. Every time I want to go back to my work asap and I keep ignoring this, allow it to annoy me again and again.
Today I spend a little more attention on the feeling of constant distraction and the feeling of hard to fix it and not wanting to fix it. Then I stand up and find a tape to fix it. It's not going to bother me for a while.
I wonder how come I take no action for a year and more. Wanting to ignore the feeling of distraction make the distraction coming back again and again. Paying attention to the feelings leads me to do something about it. It's not perfect fix but at least I find myself doing something now.
Thanks, |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
May 28, 2015
Japanese Polish Perogies - and Property Rights
Hello Mr. Seykota
This is my second [book] order from you and I would personally like to thank you for your contribution to fixing my brain.
I know my previous sentence sounds strange so let me briefly explain. Through reading your book, I realized the problem with not just my trading, but my life, was me! Through long fasting, prayer, and reading the Bible like 5.5 times I have changed.
My wife and I get along (this part is probably do to Jesus here ehehhehehehe), and I am diligently studying Japanese now (TUIT). Anyway, you have played a very important role in my life, and I would like to thank you. So... thank you.
Today, I have ordered your new book, and I am very excite to read it. I apologize for asking as I don't want to seem rude, I am thankful and grateful enough to just receive your thoughts on paper, however if it is not too much trouble, if you could make out the book to my sons [Name 1] and [Name 2], and so when they are older, I will give them this book and tell them about life.
My friend, thank you, sincerely,
PS: If you are ever in Japan, please come to my "mansion" (apartment), my wife will make you some of the best Polish perogies you have ever tasted.
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Thank you for ordering Govopoly in the 39th Day.
I do not know how to give something to two people.
If you tell them to "share" you give them an impossible order, since you cannot award a share in something you don't own.
If you leave it to them, they may have to settle property rights in the standard manner, namely: war.
I assume your children use this method to cope with indefinite property rights.
You might consider defining property rights for each and every toy and other possession within your home - and then watching as the level of fighting between your children decreases.
To support this experiment, I have two copies of my book on the way to you, one for each of your children.
You might consider informing them that the books belong to them and then asking them if you may have permission to read them. |
May 28, 2015
Wants Investment Guidance
Hi Ed,
Thank you for your latest response.
You have convinced us that the futures market would be too much of a gamble.
We are still liquid in the short term, but unfortunately we will still face a shortfall if we do not grow our existing assets.
We have met with several financial consultants who have assured us that we can retire as long as we invest with them. Their plans are similar and also vague - 25% [Fund 1], 25% [F2], 24% [F3], 16% [F4], and 10% [F5], and so on.
So the questions still remain: where do we invest and who do we trust to be our trader?
Thanks in advance. |
Thank you for raising this issue.
While a fund manager may assure you of returns, you might consider looking into the nature of his guarantee.
You might also ask the various managers about their biggest drawdown, on an daily basis - and also about the total returns to all clients over the life of the fund, including the clients that stub out with losses.
You might also consider taking your feelings about <whom to trust> to Tribe as an entry point.
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May 27, 2015
Speaking of Drumming - Top Secret Drum Corps
Ed,
You might like this:
https://www.youtube.com/embed/HW3QVLlK-kE?feature=player_embedded |
Thank you for sending me the link. |
May 27, 2015
Stop Placement
Dear Ed,
Iv'e looked up to your many years and your trading style ie trend following but I have a question for you please that would really help me and it is to do with my trading.
Over the last 5 years or so I have been paper trading and finally have it nailed down to two methods which I believe work but I have a dilemma.
The first method uses monthly, weekly and daily charts and I use a 1 atr entry and 1 atr stop loss.
The other method uses the same time frame but I use a 1/2 atr stop loss. The thing is the smaller stop loss may get me stopped out on the same day as entry but will not re-enter until normally the following day as re-entry is normally on a 1 atr stop. In other words my method is as follows.....
First Method-1atr entry - 1/2 atr stop loss then 1atr re-entry
Second Method - 1atr entry - 1atr stop loss then 1atr re-entry
This is my question. Even though the losses are more frequent using the smaller stop, funny enough the smaller stop gives me less losses in money overall.
Do you think that a 1/2 atr stop is just too small a stop for a robust trend following method over a long period of time. It's as simple as that. Remember as I mentioned the smaller stop loss method even though it is a small stop does not normally enter until the next day.
Thank you for your time. |
Thank you for raising this issue.
You can derive your answers through back testing.
To help determine which method you prefer you might consider taking your feelings about <making choices> to Tribe as an entry point .
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May 27, 2015
Open and Receptive
Hi Ed
Today as I paint at the beach numerous people stop and compliment my artwork - on the colors and skill.
One woman tells me I inspire her to go home, get out her paints and paint outside which is new for her.
A man stops and tells me he has been reading about Van Gough and does not understand his style of painting. We enjoy a brief discussion about impressionism and using thick applications of paint.
I remember wanting to try Van Gough's style too. He inspires me too. I begin using thick medium and paint layering while learning a new technique on the next canvas.
Then when leaving my painting spot today another man stops walking, looks at me transfixed for a minute and tells me "You have a beautiful smile and eyes". I thank him while widening my smile. He doesn't move for what seems like a long time then says "Blessings and happiness." before resuming his brisk walk towards the beach.
It seems when I am open and receptive to the creative process the universe flows happily in my life with connections and compliments.
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Thank you for sharing your process and your painting. |
May 27, 2015
Receives Books
Dear Ed,
Thank you so much, and I confirm that I have received the books, which are really masterpiece.
If I have any question about the content, could I ask you?
Have a good day,
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Thank you for raising this issue.
You may address questions to FAQ. |
May 27, 2015
Tribe Report - Super Powers
Ed,
3 members present, which I consider the minimum to run the TTP.
We try a new exercise, which I hope will improve people's abilities to remember their past. I notice a lot of people seem to be able to recall few details of their childhoods in particular.
After drumming we check in - I am very tired from my 4 day strenuous hike - and do some exercises.
"Tell me the first time you felt .... <proud, embarrassed, frightened etc>." This seems to go well. One member reports that he has decided to write an autobiography and this helps him to remember some things.
Two members are hot.
I (member #3) go first, as the hottest. On a recent hiking trip over four days, I snap at my companion because he delays our departure by deciding to change clothes and takes a long time to do it. I want to be a nicer person. I feel I don't really care much about other people's feelings. I have more interest in ideas and concrete results but often my indifference to people's feelings backfires significantly. This feels rather demoralizing. I feel 'condemned' and shamed when this happens.
At the peak of emotion in the hot seat, a whole series of interactions with my mother comes to mind, as the first time i felt like this. In these interactions I was forever in no-win situations. Whatever I did was wrong. I realize that at that time I decide "toss it" and just to ignore "all that bull". I will just say want I think and "damn the consequences". I find a safe haven in the world of ideas, a place where my mother cannot trespass.
In the rocks process my mother acts as the perpetrator and my father and to some extent my mother donate the strategy above. After enacting this, we find the new strategies, donated by a friendly Uncle. Mainly I decide to receive the other person and thus to feel where they are coming from. Ancillary strategies: receive criticism but don't assume it is valid, give people time to express themselves.
After re-enacting and then mentally running through the many similar scenarios from my life, the new approach feels like a super-power. I can very easily receive people and feel where they are coming from.
The next day I am at the optometrist. I hear the staff member saying another patient has to go to hospital for a likely operation. The patient says she feels frightened. The staff member explains that it is not valid to feel frightened and walks off. I feel very sad and feel very strongly the patient's fear and sadness. I say that I lost most of the sight in one eye and it was very frightening and I understand she might feel frightened. Tears well up in her eyes and she talks a bit about her problems. I get called in for my tests and the other patient wishes me luck and thanks me for what I said.
Second hot seat (member #6):
HS is frustrated and confused as his "paper trading" does not go well. After a few losing trades he loses faith and changes things. Or he will give a losing trade "a bit more room" with expected results. A very confusing conversation follows. A couple of times I express strong feelings of frustration myself. What is he confused and frustrated about? Is he paper trading or back testing (manually, as the system is somewhat subjective). Does he have a system? He expresses confidence that his system is profitable but others wonder if he has a system. It takes 3 days to back test a currency pair, and there are 8 pairs. How many times has he run through a test with all the pairs, using a consistent system? Apparently, never, maybe he never actually even got through a single pair following a system faithfully and accurately. One member offers extensive advice on building systems, which takes a very considerable amount of time. Much of the advice seems valid but not part of TTP.
Given this tendency to divert hot seats into extensive discussions of trading systems, giving advice etc, we decide to spin this off as a Trading University separate from Tribe (see below).
We decide to just go with the feeling, whatever it is about. We make a couple of attempts to ramp up the intensity. Finally HS achieves a high level and we freeze it. I ask when he felt like this. HS reports that he has a clear realization that his system is not well defined, there are many points of ambiguity and he needs to go back and work on this. There is no 'rock' - his feelings are pointing to a real problem, which is that he has not gotten his act together.
The other member's (member #1):
Life is going well. Trading hums along with 2.5% per month profit and few dramas. Health issues fluctuating and some problems with visitors.
We close the meeting. I commit to organize a Trading University for our Tribe and other interested parties with the first meeting on 7 June at 2pm in the CBD of our city (more details to follow). This is to talk about our trading strategies and to hone and critique them.
I plan to limit future Tribe reports to FAQ + people who have attended tribe within the past 3 meetings. |
Thank you for sharing your process, for documenting the meeting and for demonstrating how to get a process back on track. |
May 26, 2015
Rock Band and Banjo
Hi Ed,
I hope all is well. I thought you might like to see a short clip of [Band] playing last Sunday. I think your banjo would fit in fine!
Best regards, |
Thank you for sending me the clip.
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May 26, 2015
TTP and Music
Dear Ed,
I wonder if you might share your thoughts on 'music' and its role in TTP (if any) and more broadly in the system dynamics view of people on individual, group and societal levels.
Thank you |
Thank you for raising this issue.
I generally include drumming at the start of Tribe meetings - to help get people into their sensory experience and to give them an experience of hearts beating together.
During TTP Breathwork I generally play (1) heavy drum beat music to assist with the induction, then (2) a variety of evocative pieces to support emotional reaction and expression, and finally (3) peaceful sounds to help with reflection and integration of insights.
Music can reach places that logic just can't go.
You might like to see: Clint Black - State of Mind https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SYbSPO6iqE&app=desktop
Ain't it funny how a melody can bring back a memory
Take you to another place in time
Completely change your state of mind
It can make a right from a wrong,
it can make you fall in love
It can get you singin' along |
May 26, 2015
One Day on a Plane
Hey Ed,
What we discussed on the airplane about the 39th day really stuck with me, so I decided to pull out your card and check out your website. I enjoyed reading more about your website and watching your youtube videos and so I wanted to reach out to you for some advice and if you were willing, some help.
Coming to the realization that our govt. and economy can't be changed is a concept that has always been difficult to accept. It's like the question you asked me, "what do you do if somebody told you you had terminal cancer?" The only thing we can do is enjoy the time we have and make the most of it. That really stuck with me because I actually lost my father to pancreatic cancer in December. He was also 68, and we were devastated with the news of his condition. We had only found out 2 weeks about his diagnosis before his passing. It was difficult for me to accept and is still hard for me currently.
I resigned my previous position at the American Red Cross in order to be at home and take care of Mom. I was applying for jobs near my home and accepted my current position with [Firm] because it was closer to home. However, this job has been taking up alot of my time and wish I had more time to be at home. I don't like working 10-12 hours a day, but I need the monies to pay for my expenses. I wanted to see if there was a way to have more of a balance and go along with our economic trends to help myself.
I remember you mentioned you have been successful in your business with computer programs to help with stock investments. I wanted to see if you think your program could be of benefit to myself.
I have a trading account online through [Broker] and have some monies set aside for investing. I don't really know too much about investing, but I would like to learn and hopefully be successful. I like how you were able to find a good work / life balance, and would ultimately like to follow in your path if I'm able to. I don't mind paying for your program and am open to any advice or suggestions you might have.
Have you been eating bananas and those other foods high in Potassium for your cramps? Please let me know if any of that has been helping. It was great meeting you on the plane. I hope you had a fun time playing the banjo with your buddies.
Sincerely, |
Thank you for sharing your process and for raising the issue of trading systems.
In general, the main difference between trading systems may have to do with the dominant time constant - the interval you have to wait before you determine and react to a trend.
Systems that react to short-term trends (less than a couple weeks) tend to suffer from execution costs - and don't hold on for the major moves.
You can design a system for yourself - and find time constants that suit your own personality - through back testing. See the Trading System Project (TSP) at Resources on this site.
You may find your computer system resides within a much larger personal-character system that includes your willingness to follow your computer system.
People sometimes bring character issues to Tribe to learn about themselves and to learn how to react differently.
Thank you for your concern and advice about my electrolyte balance - I continue to study and to experiment.
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May 25, 2015
Dancer Makes 2 Million
Hi Ed,
I don't know if this e-mail address is correct but I thought I'd give it a try. I, like many others who have read "Market Wizards" have heard of you.
I must have read that book several dozen times as I have done with "Trend following" as well. These are but two of perhaps hundreds of books I have
read about the market over many years , I was a stockbroker for about 30 years and have been "trading" since 2008. There can be no doubt that I hold the longest track record for consistently losing money in the market because I had no methodology or patience to "see" what really matters, the Trend! I was "trained" up in New York how to day trade and have come to realize the short frames used for day trading or just "noise". After reviewing many thousands of trades I made since 2008 I saw an amazing thing when I looked at all those plays on a monthly and weekly chart instead of the 1, 2, 5 minutes etc.etc. What I saw was a beautiful thing… I saw what a trend looked like. This reminded me of an interview you had given where you said something to the effect that you would look from across the room at the chart to see the trend or as I call it, 'the truth".
Anyway I am going on way too long here about me, the reason for my e-mail is that I would like to ask you a question. In "Trend Following" you mentioned that when you were 13 your father told you how to buy stocks using "boxes". You were born in 1946, so that would have put his instruction to you around 1959-1960.
In 1960 a book (which I feel is THE most important book ever written on the stock market) came out which discussed "boxes", the book was "How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market".
I've always wanted to ask you is that where your father got the idea about "boxes" in regards to the market, I also wanted to ask if anyone ever cared to ask you that question.
Ps boy how I hope you get this e-mail. |
Thank you for raising this issue.
You can find Alex Darvas' book, How I made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market at this link:
http://www.amazon.ca/How-Made-000-Stock-Market/dp/1614271690 |
May 22, 2015
More Physics Fun - Bowling Ball Musical Snake
Hi Ed,
I enjoy sharing this video with you ... music by a Bowling Ball Pendulum Wave. I think of you while listening and remembering the pendulum experiments at the Sacramento TT.
Demonstration: http://youtu.be/J-6q9uayPjE
Always your friend, |
Thank you for sending me the link. |
May 21, 2015
Amazing Tribe Meeting
Dear Ed,
The last Tribe meeting must be one of the most amazing ones I have ever experienced.
There are many things happening during the meeting that influence me and I just wish I can remember them all forever.
In the first check-in, a tribe member shares deeply personal information with the Tribe. During the break I see another Tribe member jump up and making an important phone call he seemed hesitant to do before. What I see is a man feeding of the courage of another man. I think to myself – powerful!
During the first hot-seat a Tribe member who usually holds back a bit, works on an issue of not knowing what to do in his life, how to earn living. He is skeptical about all business ventures he can think of.
As things heat up and he gets really into his feelings he almost shouts, "I don't want to win!" as the PM goes "Exactly!" For few seconds they just sit there and stare at each other. I watch as one man is realizing who he is, or more accurately how he operates, while the other man is leading him to the answers. I sit there with goosebumps on my back observing the process thinking to myself, "how amazing!"
During the second hot seat, a tribe member explores issues in his relationship. He brings up an issue of spending the whole day being there for his partner only to receive a rejection for intimacy in the end.
He notices this pattern in his relationships for quite some time.
His feelings take him deep into his childhood dealing with his mother. His mother does not show any affection for him. Affection he really desperately wants and needs.
We role-play the childhood drama of his mother putting a mustard plaster on him and him disliking it. He does not know how to communicate with her intimately to let her know not to do that. She does a poor job of explaining to him the benefits of the mustard plaster also. She has her mother, the Tribe member's grandmother, helping keep him down while they apply the mustard plaster.
The Tribe member is very defiant, one of those who march to the beat of his own drum.
I appreciate to be part of the process in this role. I plug into the role of his mother very well as my younger son is also very defiant. I literally cannot make him brush his teeth or go the barber to get his hair cut. If I say yes, he says no. The way the communication goes with my son is just about the same as with the tribe member.
Interestingly, the Tribe member is learning to talk back and communicate effectively to get what he wants while my son can still do it on his own while I try to change it.
The Tribe member eventually succeeds (with a great work of the PM and the whole tribe).
The next day we present our projects. I report that although I am first to make a presentation, my project is not ready, as it is still in the process of being proof read. At this point I ask if I can report in late. Tribe holds me accountable and finds this not quite acceptable. PM turns the mirror my way and lets me know what I am doing. I made a commitment to be ready and I am not. As I am being challenged on my unpreparedness I think about how I always do things last minute. Unless there is a lot of pressure, I just don't act or move towards my goals. Unless my back is against the wall, my results are mediocre.
Although I notice this pattern in my behavior before and attempt to change it, I have a ways to go.
Thanks Ed and Tribe for being so inspiring, courageous and yourselves.
Sincerely, |
Thank you for sharing your process and for documenting the meeting. |
May 21, 2015
Big Sharks
Hi Ed,
I read your Market Wizard's interview and I was fascinated how you can trade without looking any fundamentalist part.
I am starting my carrer as a trader in Brazil. I would be thankful if you could give me some advice about the carrer because I am completely lost and I think I can't compete against the big sharks.
I have the perception that every asset in everycorner is being monitorating by someone, computer or cyborg and I wouldn't have any space in this market.
I am also quite depressed with my performance in my grad and in my carrer, I lose some of the exciment, because I don't feel confidence if I study a thousand books. I hope one day you can come to Brazil.
P.S: Sorry for my bad english.
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Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider taking your feelings about <competition> to Tribe.
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May 21, 2015
Physics Fun - Water in Zero Gravity
Hi Ed,
Sharing some physics fun today with you, I hope this video brings a big smile as it does for me.
http://youtu.be/ntQ7qGilqZE
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Thank you for sending me the link. |
May 21, 2015
Tribe Report -
Conecting with Brother and Father
Ed,
I miss the May 11 Tribe meeting. As the meeting date approaches I feel disappointment I am missing the meeting and some other unfamiliar feelings.
At the two prior Tribe meetings, I role play an older brother in one rocks process and a father who smokes in another.
These role play experiences help my personal growth as I recently use the intimacy model to connect with my oldest brother and father. I notice during role play I recall certain things about them that I judge as negative.
I realize my judgment of them inhibits our relationship.
I telephone them and as we talk I use the intimacy model as best I can. At times I feel I slip back into the control model and find I prefer the intimacy model when relating to them. Their response and our conversation is different.
My oldest brother begins to open up about the true nature of his military service. He shares his experiences with me for the first time and the first time with any family member. He keeps this inside of him for many years and the experiences impact him today physically and emotionally. I express shock and sadness to him. We continue to talk for some time and develop a new connection as brothers.
My father smokes and tries to hide it from everyone in the family. I thought I was over it long ago and realize in role play I still judge him for it. I choose to accept him as he is and reach out to him. Our conversations change and are easy, fun conversations. No more boring small talk about the weather. He beats my mom to the phone when I telephone which I know is physically difficult for him because of his bum knee. I smile when he picks up the phone and when he signs off with his signature "bye-bye".
Thank you for TTP, hosting Tribe and to the Tribe members. |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
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