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Ed
Seykota's FAQ
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TT_Chartbook
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| FAQ June 01-30,
2017 <-- back | down | forward --> |
| Contributors Say | Ed Says | |||
| June
30, 2017 Wheat and Drought News Ed, FYI: Dakota Drought Sparks Biggest Spring Wheat Price Spike In 7 Years. See article |
Thank
you for sending me the news. I have a circle on the chart
showing the date of the appearance of the news.
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| Jun
29, 2017 Cause and Affect I make more progress toward my goal of running a profitable fund and leaving my job. I enlist a college buddy to help me, his outlook seems to align with mine currently. My past experiences of trading as a lone wolf steer my desire to align with a group or pack if you will. I recall reading about Native American Tribes like the Sioux and their buffalo hunts where the village's men would all participate in the buffalo hunt and everyone would eat. I see that as something I want to align with. I wonder how emotions of greed, pride or envy might affect a group trading dynamic. I remember you mention something similar, maybe. I want to learn more about your ideas surrounding the "container system" and see if it's an idea that aligns with me and one I can extend the work on. |
Thank
you for raising this issue. Your question seems to imply you view dynamics from the Linear-Causal model in which you have various emotions affecting an object you call the group trading dynamic. In the System-Dynamic Model we have a number of system elements, including Emotions and various actions and states all interacting simultaneously to generate the a dynamic. You might consider taking your feelings about <working on ideas> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Jun
29, 2017 Wants to Place an Account Dear Mr. Seykota: Thank you for your website and sharing your thoughts with other people. I was rereading your interview with Jack Schwager yesterday and was struck by your answer to the question: "What's your most important advice to an average trader?" You said: "He should find a superior trader to do his trading for him." I definitely think you are a superior trader, so I was wondering if accept accounts to manage? Thank you in advance for your reply. Sincerely, |
Thank
you for reaching out to me. I rarely accept an account to manage. First I would have to qualify the client as having (1) in excess of $10 million in net liquid assets, (2) willingness to place less than 10% of NLA with me and (3) OK about losing half of the placement. Also, I don't put much effort into raising funds. Mostly I handle a few long-standing accounts, play the banjo, work on my own issues and, occasionally, get around to writing this column. |
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| Jun
29, 2017 Dealing with Abuse Ed, A month or so back I participate in a Tribe meeting. I explore the feelings surrounding past abuse. After the meeting I do not feel a dramatic shift, however in the weeks that follow small things do not irritate me like they do before. I do not rush to an loud outburst when I feel anger. I feel a bit more calm. I start exercising on a regular basis and keep up my abstinence from sugar and junk food (except for special occasions birthdays etc). I eliminate soda and sugary juices in favor of water. A couple days ago I watch the movie Lion. The movie centers on a young boy lost in India and then reuniting with his mother after 25 years. The movie stirs up a lot of sadness to the point where I start to weep. I relive the feelings of my abuse and can't help but wonder why adults would harm a child and cause so much pain and long lasting hurt. After 30 years I still feel the pain. That night I do not work out and cannot sleep well. The following days I notice my irritability resurfaces. Perhaps there is a connection there and more work for me to do. Thank You. |
Thank
you for raising this issue. You might consider taking your feelings about <reconnecting with your mother> to Tribe as an entry point.
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| Jun
24, 2017 Letting Go Ed, I feel ready to let go of being the Chief of a Trading Tribe. I wonder if you might consider removing the link to the Utrecht Tribe from the Tribe Directory. Thank you. |
Thank
you for serving as Chief in Utrecht. The reference no longer shows in the directory. |
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| Jun
17, 2017 What to Do Dear Sir, Thank You for the Website and the Under Fred Model. It has made my life different. I realize that I play a Controlling Role in my relationships and lack trust. I also find it difficult to make friends and attract drama. People have called me unemotional and noted that I have one of the Strongest Poker Faces ever (it came from My Mom). I Also attract Drama in the few romantic relationships I've had and always felt unworthy of love or intimacy. I read Dr.Tharp's The Red Pill and have started a Course in Miracles as well as the Sedona Method. I Also want to seek your advise on what else I can do. Regards, |
Thank
you for raising this issue. I wonder if you can state your intention. |
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| Jun
13, 2017 Worse Things Hi Ed, I like to hear your thoughts on this [news article about "cultural approbation"], and the subsequent deletion of the newspaper's original blog post. Does this portend of worse things to come for society in general? Sincerely, |
Thank
you for raising this issue. In my book, Govopoly in the 39th Day, I show how the Govopoly System assimilates the Free-Competition Sector. You might notice the media increasingly merging reporting with editorializing and propagandizing I choose to observe such trends rather than label them as better or worse. |
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| Jun
12, 2017 Heart Rock Dear Ed, I would like to report that Heart Rock continues to work for me and that variations of the processes I learn at the Workshop, as part of the San Juan Tribe and with the "virtual" Tribe help me feel and live with greater clarity and purpose. A few days ago I have a chance to role-play what I anticipate will be a stressful upcoming event. The role play takes place over a phone call with one of our fellow Tribe members. Even though we are thousands of miles apart, we are able to get into a drama where he plays the role of the antagonist and I have a chance to experience my feelings and to choose how I will react to insults and other verbal attacks. I choose Heart Rock and practice sharing how I really feel instead of defending / fighting back. It feels right. Later that day when I am in the middle of the encounter we have rehearsed in role play, I am able to use Heart Rock and the result is good. I feel that my behavior and feelings are in alignment. I have clarity. I notice that my partner's role play is almost an identical match for what my real-life antagonist says even though they have never met. It is uncanny! Thank you. |
Thank
you for sharing your process. |
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| Jun
12, 2017 Meeting New People Hi Ed, ... I feel like I'm so low in consciousness or so in the dark that you cannot reach me. When You replied to my email I had a friend of my dad's come over to the resort to measure the land for building a resort / condominium. I find that some people are more connected to others and can see more than what some people see. I think Jack Schwager mentioned it in one of his books that some people (in his example, Market Wizards) have gotten so good that they become like the eye on top of the pyramid. That's what I want to be. I don't know how to express that in other ways. Before, I find myself delaying and eating trail mix instead of writing. I find myself currently on the island of [Island], in a town named [Town]. My dad owns a small resort here that he is currently entrusting me with. He also owns the assets of a dive shop who he entrusts someone else to run. They split the profit 50/50. I'm supposed to let people keep running things the way they're running them and not rock the boat. However when I do this I find that I diminish myself and my own capabilities and I wind up confused and not knowing what to do. When I'm here I feel a bit isolated, so I'd like to thank you for choosing to connect with me. What I want to change about my situation. Currently I'm new in town, I'd like to meet some more people peop ... As I wrote the above a couple of days ago it instantly happens. Instead of writing I stopped and went around outside and found three new people to have coffee with. Don't know if you had something to do with it or not ... Thought I would report my progress. |
Thank
you for sharing your process. |
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| Jun
11, 2017 A and B Hello Ed, On your Market Wizards interview, answering the question "How did you know when systems need to be changed?" you say "Systems don't need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible." Say there are two systems: A and B. System A makes money over time. System B is identical to system A, except for the fact that when system A produced a buy signal, system B produces a sell signal, and vice-versa. If system A makes money, a "mirrored" system, such as B, would by definition lose money. A trader employing system B would (and should!) look to change the system used. Logically there are winning and loosing systems. The proposition that a system may need to be changed is therefore a true one, is it not? Thank you. Kind regards, |
Thank
you for raising this issue. Say you (A) put some cash in a bank savings account and earn some interest; the bank (B) receives the cash and pays interest. You might notice that while A and B appear opposite, both parties might experience winning. Say you grow some livestock and (A) sell it forward on a futures exchange; simultaneously, a supermarket (B) buys the same contract forward to hedge his margins. Both parties feel they win. Or, perhaps more to the point, say you have some system that normally rides winners and cuts losers and you have a deep need to win arguments with the market. You don't like the feeling of having to acknowledge making "wrong" trades - so you override your protective stops and let losses run. You might consider taking your feelings about <winning arguments> to Tribe as an entry point.
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| Jun 7,
2017 Pressure and Impatience Ed, Yesterday I attend my fifth TT meeting. I take the Hotseat first. I am concerned my cold will interfere with the process. I intend to explore the impatience I feel. Instead, the process has its own direction. I experience forms of the pressure I feel. I continue to allow the process to take its own direction. I experience many forms. I focus on experiencing feelings and not rationalising. At one point I cry. When I stop the darkness clears. The sky is clear and there is the freshness after a thunderstorm. At other points I experience forms of impatience. At times I become serene, I think the process is complete. I feel guilty for taking the Hotseat for so long. My leader tells me the opportunity to experience the process occurs only every 3 or 4 weeks. This is an opportunity. He is skilled in recognising there is more. I return to experience more forms. At one point pressure and impatience fall down on me. I look up and open my mouth. They fall into my mouth I feel strong I feel energised. When I finish I feel happy with pressure, I feel happy with impatience. I feel happy with my position within my family. I feel tired. This morning, I feel grounded. I feel balanced, indifferent to what I see and hear around me. I feel comfortable inside. Regards |
Thank
you for sharing your process. |
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| Jun 7,
2017 Please and Rebel Hi Ed, I would also like to attend a workshop in Europe.I benefit from my previous one as well as from my Tribe experiences and I feel ready to make more progress:the timing feels right to me. I also have to congratulate you for identifying my "please people and then rebel" pattern right away and framing it as a major issue. I wonder how you do it (in fact I feel envy towards your ability) and whether you have any further insights into the pattern, especially the rebelling part, or into how to develop a feel for identifying issues so quickly and uncannily. It takes me a while to see it as well and over time I get a few insights into the pattern and come to know the warning signs of its onset. I work on improving my response to them and I make progress, reducing both the frequency and the intensity of the drama, yet I feel the issue still lingers and keeps holding me back to some extent. I also have to admit I come to see some of its payoffs, as I use my rebelling reaction as effective manipulative currency I exchange for various benefits and I also get to blame my failures and shortcomings on the obstacles and burdens other people "impose" on me. Best, |
Thank
you for sharing your process and your insights. |
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| Jun 4,
2017 Nice Catch Dear Ed, Thank you for generously sharing your knowledge - the impact it has on my trading and my life is immeasurable. I feel confused by the following paragraph in "Trends" section of TSP project. "After 5 days (the time constant) the Lag is about 16.72 or about 2/3 of the way to the new price. If we were to compound continuously, rather than once per day, the price would be, after 5 days, one "e" of the way from $10 to $20, where e, Euler's constant is about 0.5772." The constant 'e' (Euler's number/Napier Constant) in continuous compounding is 2.71828, which is different from the Euler's constant 0.5772. The continuous rate of compounding to get to one "e" (0.5772) of the way from 10 to 20 i.e. 15.772 in 5 days works out to 9%. I fail to connect 'e' (2.71828), the Euler's constant (0.5772) in the above paragraph to the ROC idea. I feel anxious about missing some insights. Please explain. Or is it your intention to baffle the reader and make him examine his own feelings of mathturbation. Thanks, |
Thank
you for catching this error. You have it right, Euler's Constant, e = 2.71828. Euler's Other Constant, more precisely the Euler-Macheroni Constant, γ (gamma) = .5772156649 - representing the difference between the harmonic series of n and the natural logarithm of n as n approaches infinity. I might guess that in preparing the column, I consult Internet for a precise value for Euler's Constant and copy the one for gamma rather than for e - without thinking about it. By the principle of intentions = results, I gather my intention has to do with having you correct the error a decade after I publish it. Nice Catch ! .5772156649
Reference https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/eulers-constant-solution.2061/ .5772156649
Reference https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/eulers-constant-solution.2061/ |
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| Jun 2,
2017 Wants to Participate Hi Ed, I greatly appreciate your prompt reply on the above-mentioned queries. I still have some last few questions in mind. 1) I am from Singapore and will like to join the Trading Tribe. However, it is not within the country list. What should i do? 2) I will like to attend TTP Workshops when it is available. When is the next date/venue for it and how much will it cost? Please advise accordingly. Thank You. Yours Sincerely, |
Thank
you for raising these issues. 1. You can start your own Tribe and you can also practice applying the principles with your friends, associates and family. 2. Watch FAQ for news on upcoming Workshops. |
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