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Ed
Seykota's FAQ
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| FAQ January 01-31,
2019 <-- back | down | forward --> |
| Contributors Say | Ed Says | |||
| Jan
31, 2019 An Embracing I AM AN ITALIAN RESEARCHER, I DEVELOPED THE NEW LOGICS ON THE STUDY OF FINANCIAL MARKETS, I AM ONLY, I BELIEVE IN MY INTELLIGENCE, I WANT ONLY YOU WATCH MY WORKS, AN EMBRACING |
Grazie
per aver condiviso il tuo processo. Un abbraccio. |
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| Jan
31, 2019 Wants Ed to Speak to Economics Class - in Sao Paulo Dear Ed, Hope this email finds you well. I first learned about you on the Market Wizards book. You made a great impression on me. Anyways, i lived for 20 years in the US, took my PhD in Economics at USC and went on to work at the derivative desk of [Asset Management Firms] . I am in Sao Paulo, Brazil since 2010 and i currently work as a trader and I also teach at a prestigious college. The reason for the email is because i offer an undergrad course where i try to convey to students the basics of trading futures and Forex. I would like to ask if we could set up a day and time for you to speak for 30-40 minutes via Skype or whatsup to my students. They have a business or econ background. The whole course is held in English. It would be a immense honor to have you in my class. Classes are Wed and Friday from 945 to 1145am, SP time. Otherwise, if you come to Sao Paulo, you could come to Insper to talk to students in person. Thanks in advance. Best regards, |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for extending me an invitation to
appear for your class. I gather from your biography that you embrace a New Keynesian view of economics, including the Financial Instability Hypothesis. In my book, I present another approach to economics: namely, I frame it as a way people interact to create the tools for production. Thus, I measure the economy in units of tools. Current economic theory measures, among other things, money supply and employment. It generally ignores the differences between (A) real money (gold) and fiat money (central-bank notes) and (B) real jobs (produce something useful) and fiat jobs (implement government control). If would like to expose your students to an alternate theory, I invite you to engage the following experiment with me: 1. Have three of your students read Govopoly in the 39th day and then present the thesis to your other classmates: economic modeling with tools as the basis, rather than money. 2. After their presentations, have three different students send their feelings about the experience to me here at FAQ. 3. At that point, I can speak to your class on Skype - and discuss applications to trading. |
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| Jan
31, 2019 Buy-and-Hold vs. Trend Following Ed, You might like to see this study on buy-and-hold versus trend following. Link Thanks so much for sharing, Ed. Also, I love the new "Tribe Member Reach Out" page. I connect with several Tribe guys from around the globe over the past week or so. |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for the link. |
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| Jan
31, 2019 Double and Half Thanks a million, Ed! I went pick it (The Trading Tribe) up from the local post office yesterday. It was our wet season here so they just left the notice for me to pick up. I was home at the time but didn't see them drive pass. But it is all good, I started reading last night. So far I love it! But I need to read slowly to understand everything. Given that I am also from a emotional under demonstrative family from China during cultural revolution and then went to completed a couple of Engineering degrees, I did choose to do the bachelor in material science and engineering, that was in China, then I came to Australia and figure I need to a master in civil engineering to get a job, well, it was recession they said when I finished so did about 7 yrs software programming in multimedia then changed to data analysis after the dot.com went under. We came to Townsville from Sydney in 2005 because we want to live a self sufficient life and had a small piece of land to grow different tropical fruits since 2007. I came to trading in late 2016 as there is a share class in Townsville and one of the rare fruit club member is coordinating it, and the class using William O'Neil's growth stock trading system but only in Australian stocks. I had some shares in the past but more or less a value investor rather than growth. Not until March 2017, I watched a webinar the class suggested to realise that the stop loss is the most important milestone for the system to work statistically. That was a realisation for me. And O'Neil's strategy was simple enough for me to grasp in the beginning: 1. Prior uptrend on strong growth stock; 2: stop loss; 3. have only 4 stocks but 25% each of the total capital; 4. adding more to the big winner; By Feb 2018, I had doubled my account. But I didn't know when to part the stocks, so I stayed over my welcome on both the stocks in the end, then I picked two new stocks, one of them tanked on earning update by 50%, and that happened on 15th and 16th May 18, I lost a half of my capital in the two days of the two stocks tanked. It was such an experience, and happened just a month after I left work and start full time trading. I didn't manage to get out of the house during the trading hours for the next two weeks. Before these all happened, my friend [Name] pressured me enough to come up with a goal for my trading as I had been living with less wanting for last fifteen years. The goal was to make 500 million dollars to maintain a manufactory which would produce DC appliances for people live without grid electricity to be able to boil their water, washing their clothes especially for elderly. I watched a story on TV long time ago, this elderly lady who was nursing her last son who is dying of AIDS, the place was very poor, and the young men in the village used to donate their blood to local hospital and in exchange for a little bit of money. Her other two sons already died of this horrible disease, and she was walking up and down the mountain to gather some fire woods to boil some water for her son.... the picture was in my mind for all these years. I gave up my job so that I could focus on the learning and practicing trading. I need to get to 10,000 hours to become an expert, and another 10,000 hours to become a master. It is such a difficult endeavour, one would have to be a master to make the amount of money I now need for this. So far, I had done just over 5000 hours roughly. But I only made 15% of my capital this year, so I signed up with IBD (O'Neil's website for their stock selection) and started trading US stocks from June, I had three trails: Jun/Jul on a CFD account, Jul/Aug and from mid Aug to 11th Oct, I felt that I had learnt a lot with each of the periods with tuition fees each time. But only afterwards, I realised how US growth stocks so close correlate with Nasdaq index. I even made money in the Jun/Jul period but was the time market was going up, I was just lucky to be there. O'Neil's system only works for the period of bull market, even choppy market, with good stock selection, one can get away with. However, in bear market, most my classmates sit in cash and waiting with patience. A good friend also from the class, [Name_2], is a future trader. He got me set up a future trading account, and he tutored me for last two years, I finally decided to give it a go last December, I read about Turtle method of trading, also read a diary of a future trader by Peter Brandt. I know I don't have a system here to follow as readily as O'Neil for stock, in my search of the future trading system, I came across your name and your website, I know you said you are not having the perfect system for readers to have, perhaps it is the same as the story in The Power of Now, the beggar was sitting on the treasure for all those years to beg for some food, the best system for me would be waiting for me to discover enough of myself to uncover it...... Sorry for boring you with the long story about my life and trading, just thought that I might not be a complete stranger when I am sending your my questions about TTP. It might be clear to you what my problem is, but I REALLY can't see my own emotional blockage or the rocks for that matter. Last night, I tried to imagine myself sit in your house in the circle of the Tribe and I want to volunteer onto the hot seat, but I really can't feel anything. It was late of the night, so I stopped at page 33. Best Regards, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. You might consider running some back tests on your system to determine the fluctuations in equity you might expect. You might consider taking your feelings about <risk> to Tribe as entry points. To find or start a Tribe, see Reach-Out, above.
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| Jan
31, 2019 Wants to Learn Dear Mr. Seykota, I´m a 31 years old trader living in Germany, working as an mechanical engineer, grew up at a small farm. Now 7 years are gone since my first contact with the markets. I tried a lot of different approaches in my starting time. I recognized that it´s important to have own rules must be followed with a on the system tailored money management. Now I have a very simple, mechanic system which is working very good and fits to my personality as well perfectly. This year was an amazing year. Nevertheless I want to develop me and my trading style to the next level. To become one of the best traders in the world, you have to learn from the best. That´s the reason why I´m writing now this email. I´m strongly believing that you´re the trigger for some other world class trader like Michael Marcus or Bruce Kovner. So is there any opportunity to learn from you? Best regards, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. You might consider reading through FAQ or joining a Tribe - see Reach-Out, above. You might also consider taking your feelings about <wanting to learn> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Jan
31, 2019 Wants Information on Forex Trading Hello there, I got interested to learn successful trend models, which I can apply to Forex trading. is there any material which you can suggest me to start with? |
Thank
you for asking about materials. You might consider reading the books on the reading list via Resources, above. |
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| Jan
31, 2019 Wants Workshop in Goa India Dear Ed, We would wish to organize a Trading Tribe Workshop in India, maybe Goa. If you are interested, kindly inform the following: 1) Minimum number of people required for the workshop 2) Maximum number of people you may handle in the workshop 3) Expected revenue to you from the workshop before cost in US Dollars. 4) Your preferred flight and class 5) Available date (we would prefer date between 22nd April to 26th April. 6) Details of additional persons flying with you for organizing their stay with you 7) Any other information you feel relevant |
Thank
you for reaching out to me about a Workshop in Goa, India. I consider 8-12 people as critical mass for a Workshop. I can handle up to 36 people without an assistant. Participants may take notes and may not otherwise record anything that happens in the Workshop room - as people may let strong feelings out. The workshop room would accommodate the participants in a horseshoe arrangement of tables for lectures and meals - and also, and in a separate area, in a circular arrangement of portable chairs for Tribe work. The event-site management must know that we use hand drums and occasionally cheer each other on with loud voices. The event runs Friday (6PM - 12PM); Saturday (8AM - 12PM); Sunday (8AM-Noon). It requires 5 meals ( D / B L D / B) plus a snack table. When you get an idea of the number of participants we can continue the discussion. |
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| Jan
30, 2019 Bull Market - Reminiscences Hi Ed, TTP is great. Thanks for putting so much effort in helping us. Today while looking at the market I had a thought. Why not take profits and enter again, maybe on a dip. I can buy something amazing with those profits. My brother just bought a top of the range iMac, I could do the same. Then it hit me. In a split second. Just after I thought about it. I must have read Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator over 100 times. One line came to mind and I couldn’t stop laughing. All I could think about was “It’s a bull market, you know” – Mr. Partridge Smiled and walked away. I was happy I had that feeling about taking profits and I was happy I didn’t. Not sure how to take this. But thank you ... for introducing me to Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator. Regards |
Thank
you for sharing your process.
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| Jan
29, 2019 Past and Future Just read Market Wizards, would have been wonderful education (if I was ready) 35 years ago. Hopefully will be more prudent in the future. Will be interesting to see where this connection takes my mind. |
Thank
you for sharing your process. I notice you use these tenses: just read - past would have been - past perfect conditional if I was - past conditional will be - future will be - future You might consider running this experiment: (1) Rewrite your three sentences in the present tense - and without using any variation of the verb, "to be." (2) Notice how you feel. You might consider taking your feelings about <operating in the now> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Jan
29, 2019 Wants to Raise Capital Dear Ed, I hope this finds you well. I have sent you a couple of emails in the past and wanted to ask you for advice. I went live with my trading 10 months ago and the results/stats are within the expected simulated stats which is good especially after going through a rough 4th quarter 2018. My actual stats can be found [on-line]. My objective is to raise sufficient capital so I can build a money management operation. The instruments I trade are the most liquid in the industry and I have approached a couple of large hedge funds; however, most want a forecast and that is not possible. I am basically a risk manager. Do you have any suggestions as to how to go about raising money and or improve the presentation of the website? Best regards, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. I see, on your website, very impressive graphics from around the world - that have nothing to do with money management. I do not see a clear description of your trading system or your market rationale. On your monthly performance page, I do not see an update since March of 2018. You might consider taking your feelings about <raising capital> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Jan,
28, 2019 Positive Intention of Worry Dear Chief, This morning I wake up and notice I have feelings of worry without any specific thoughts to accompany them. I feel worry as tightness around my collarbone and in my brow. My posture is a bit slumped and my energy level feels low. I recognize that these feelings/features are very familiar and that I have been automatically using them as an indication to cut risk for some time. When I acknowledge that I feel worry instead of medicating with distractions, I immediately have the motivation to get to work. As I tie up loose ends, cut risk and take action to secure the outcomes I want, I notice the feelings rapidly shifting to open upright and energetic. Worry comes back when I "forget" to take care of things and helps me get back on track. I wonder if the positive intention of worry is to cut risk and keep making reasonable bets. The winning scenarios in my life seem to take care of themselves and trend nicely when I do this. Thank you for teaching me how to accept and learn from my feelings. I have tremendous gratitude to you for this gift. As I type this note, I find I'm feeling another feeling ... a pretty irritating pain in my right shoulder/shoulder blade that I feel on and off since late November. I do not recall doing anything strenuous at that time that would be likely to have caused an injury but acknowledge this pain has been recurring since my teens. I feel surprised when ever it returns. After a while, days, weeks, months sometimes it has stopped hurting and my shoulder then feels like it never happened. I wonder if there is something more to it (as in perhaps I'm missing a nice big indication of some kind that I have not been willing to acknowledge) or if it's just an old forgotten injury aggravated by bad posture or something... I plan to have it looked at by a doctor however, I wonder if you have any thoughts about the intentions of mysterious and irritating pain and how to approach learning from it. Thank you for receiving this. Best, |
Thank
you for sharing your insights about worry - and for raising the issue
of "irritating pain." Shoulder generally indicates struggle or effort, as in shoulder pain, blame and responsibility. Irritating generally indicates unwillingness. You might consider taking your feelings about <irritating shoulder> to Tribe as an entry point.
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| Jan
28, 2019 More Reach-Out Suggestions Hi Ed, Thank you for inviting me to provide additional feedback and for thanking me for the earlier feedback. Your acknowledgment feels good. I like the streamlined instructions. If I wanted to continue refining I might try the following: Make this instruction "Click on a row to Reach-Out to another Tribe member." more obvious. Maybe bold would help it make it even more obvious. I might link the word Register in "Register to get on this list." to the registration tab and give it a different color or underline to make it obvious that it is a link. After some time passes, I do not easily recall if I have reached out to member 108 or member 130... we are all in the same city. I wonder if adding and check mark next to a row once a reach out has been initiated (and saving it to the DB) might be helpful for returning users as they discover the list grows. When they sign in, they can see who they have reached out to. I like the idea but acknowledge that this seems like a lot of work to do when users can just check their email to review which members they have reached out to. I have some general feedback for FAQ: I wonder if other FAQ readers and contributors might like a responsive (mobile/small screen device friendly) way of reading FAQ. I have imagined using a tabbed view for FAQ that allows me to toggle between "Contributors Say" and "Ed Says" . I imagine this tabbed view is optimized to be easily read on small screens like a smart phone. I notice that FAQ pages do not have Google analytics scripts. It might be fun to know a bit more about your audience such as where they are from, which pages get the most traffic, what types of devices are used to access the site and other information that might inform UI and content management decisions. Best, |
Thank
you for sending me your suggestions. Per streamlining, you can now toggle help on the Reach-Out page - and get graphic how-to examples. Per making FAQ more cell-friendly, I wonder if you can send me an example of what you mean. Currently you can tab virtually by swiping back and forth. FAQ column width = 300px. As you point out, I do not host analytic scripts. Nor do I market or advertise FAQ, other than by word of mouth. I do not accept trade-for ads or pay-for ads on FAQ. FAQ contributors enjoy anonymity. Please let me know if you come up with additional site-improvement ideas - particularly anything relating to site security. |
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| Jan
27, 2019 Forex Traders Wanted! If you can trade Fx, we’ll fund you … no limits and you are not responsible for losses. Talk to Us. We’re the global leader in services to the Fx industry including funding, education, world class automation tools, virtual trading rooms, and personal coaching. We supply Fx traders with funds to trade and then share profits on a 50-50 basis (you have no risk of loss) and account double it every time when 10% made. To learn the details, please go to (link). Be sure to read the entire section carefully including the FAQs. |
Thank
you for sending me your invitation to read the fine print. I gather you want me to pay you a fee of $495 up front to get to trade a $12,000 account. I make that about 4-1/8%. Then I must make 40 trades using a trailing drawdown stop of 1.5%. From your on-line materials, this example: Account equity May 2 = 10,500. Account equity May 10 = 10,200. Account drawdown = -350. I notice an error in your arithmetic. I estimate the chances of success with such a close trailing equity stop at small to nil. I assume your basic service consists of providing excitement for dopamine-craving traders. You sell 40 trades for $495, or about $12-3/8 per dopa-hit. I assume you do not actually put any of the trades through to an exchange - and route them to your "service contractors" instead. I notice you also offer a plan with a 4% drawdown stop at at higher price, namely: you want me to pay you a fee of $5590 up front to get to trade a $30,000 account. I make that about 18.63%. I pass. |
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| Jan
27, 2019 Reach Out Registration for Multiple Locations Ed, I wonder if it’s possible to list multiple cities under the “Reach Out” registration? |
Thank
you for raising this issue. You may register multiple locations by registering various user names, each with a different location. |
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| Jan
26, 2019 Rotary Phone Dudes Ed, Two teenagers trying to figure out how to make a call on a rotary phone. https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=1OADXNGnJok&feature=youtu.be best regards, |
Thank
you for sharing this link. I think you might get a different result by focusing the dudes, say, for example, if they had to score some weed. |
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| Jan
25, 2019 Sad and Hopeless Hi Ed, I am feeling extremely sad and hopeless. I am doing my best to keep my marriage and I am feeling so hurt. I have done my best to be nice to my in laws and I feel being so hurt, humiliated and without any dignity. They control my wife to control my family. I miss the half year when the family has only 4 of us. I support my wife when she want her parents to live with us. I feel so hurt so sad. I love my two children. I keep telling myself, let them win, let them win. As long as I can be here when my kids growing up. I grow more and more wanting to be around somebody like you, integrity, self-disciplined, clarity of mind and far away from dramas. I really want to leave this house and be far far away from those minds. But I strive to stay with my kids, give them what I don't get when I grow up. Thanks, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. You might notice if your feelings arise in other contexts as well as with your family. You might consider calling for a meeting of all family members so everyone can listen to each other's feelings. You might also consider taking your feelings about <sad> and <hopeless> to Tribe as entry points.
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| Jan
24, 2019 Wants to Buy An Ad Hello, We are interested buying an article on your site Seykota.com with a link leading to a gambling site. How much will that cost? |
Thank
you for expressing your interest. FAQ does not sell ads or links or editorials. |
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| Jan
23, 2019 Looking for Wizards Hi Ed, I am planning to do another Market Wizards book this year with working title Undiscovered Market Wizards. So looking for traders who have great record trading their own accounts rather than hedge fund managers. I thought with your Trading Tribe, you might have some suggestions as to good candidates. One of the traders I will be interviewing is in Austin, so if you are still there, we could get together when I am in town. |
Thank
you for reaching out to me. I can let you know if anyone writes in to FAQ with suggestions. |
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| Jan
23, 2019 Tribe Meeting Report Dear Sir, Please find the Mumbai Tribe Meeting Report for our meeting held on 3 January 2019 below: Check In TM1: He shares that he felt sadness when he was leaving his hometown & family after his engagement. His doctors have cleared his hand and shoulder and he is ready to take the hotseat after more than a year. TM2: He is moving to Canada at the end of the month. This is his last week at work & he feels gratitude for his boss and colleagues. His spondylosis is acting up again and he notices he is grinding his teeth. He feels anxious about the big move abroad and also about leaving his mom behind. TM3: He is a member of the previous Tribe. He shares that he is sad about facing small health issues & they are derailing him from his exercise schedule of walking or swimming. Medical tests are ongoing. He is happy that both his sons are now happy with their respective girlfriends & TM3 thinks they may settle down soon. He is also happy that his younger son is attending MIT Sloan. He is ready to take the hotseat. TM4: He too is a member of the previous Tribe. He shares that he too is facing minor health issues like a knee spur diagnosed after 9 weeks. He isn't going for a walk for the past 3 months and has put on 3 KG's. The issue is indiscipline in eating . He is not very hot as he is seeing a NLP practitioner every few months and the practitioner helps him focus on his feelings. TM5: Also a member of the previous Tribe, he has attended a few meetings with us. He shares that his trading is not what it used to be and he feels he has a grasp of the issue. He recalls having a big drawdown in 2015 and that has left him looking managing only at risk and not on reward as much. TM6 (I): I share that I enjoy attending a cousins wedding and meeting distant relatives after a very long time. I am also angry & annoyed that my Grandmother chooses to undertake a long car journey though I tell her I deem it unsafe & am worried she may get into an accident. I share with the Tribe that as I ponder more on these feeling of anger at home, I have another Aha! around this anger. I recall my father making some decisions around 1992 & 1995 and leaving us in a bad financial state. I am angry about how anyone could take small decisions without some thought that it can leave their family financially bankrupt or worse. TM7: He recalls his happiness at attending an event celebrating the 50th wedding anniversary of his in laws. He performs a dance on stage for the first time in his life. He recalls feeling shy when performing and does not face the audience very much. On a train journey back, he is unable to get confirmed tickets and he is allotted a ticket type where 2 people have to share a train berth. He is worried about his getting his wife angry and irritated at him. TM8: He shares that Christmas was good and he was traveling for meeting with a friend who is into gaming. His friend plays poker professionally and they are starting a venture together. Trading his high beta system has been good for the year 2018. They upgraded one system in the middle of the year. After the upgrade, the new system went into a drawdown & the old system starts doing really well. This has affected his yearly return and caused some concerns since his profitability has been hit and clients who were expecting a return have not got that from his product. He shares that an investor is coming on board the company & that provides him an extra cushion to sail thru. TM9: Another member of the previous Tribe, he shares that he quit his job as he was tired of being a trend follower in an organization where his boss wanted him to design mean reversion strategies. Since quitting his job, he is reading a lot of books. He is drawn to trading without much energy or enthusiasm. He is also pondering over whether his only role in life is to be a provider for his family or whether there are other roles for him to play too. Hotseats Hotseat 1 TM3 takes the hotseat with TM1 as the process manager. TM3 describes his issue and quickly gets into a form. He is not moving much except swaying in the chair. He looks sad and the tribe cheers him on .We notice a few tears and he quickly has an Aha!. After this he elects to share the process. Hotseat Check Out He shares that he is the rock/pillar at home and solves all the problems. But there is no place left for him to be vulnerable. He tells us that he feels much better and is in a happy place. He also shares that he elects not to continue the hotseat though he feels that he may be able to regress further. Many Tribe members encourage him to share his feelings with his family. Hotseat 2 TM8 takes the hotseat with TM2 as the process manager. HS shares that he feels like his role is restricted to that of a provider and whether there is another role for him. He gets into a form and says that he feels like Atlas with the world on his shoulders. We cheer him on and he starts swaying with joy. After staying with the feeling, he shares that he feels the world is now in his pocket. He elects to end the process. Hotseat Check Out HS2 feels happy after the process is over. We observe a shift in him, especially after feeling like Atlas with the world on his shoulders to having the world in his pocket. I share my concern that both hotseats are using TTP medicinally elect to end the process when they reach a "happy point". Hotseat 3 TM5 takes the hotseat with TM6(I) as the process manager. TM5 starts telling his issues. He starts waving his right hand. I encourage him to do that more. As we progress with the process, HS feels a pain behind his eyes. TM 8 encourages him to make friends with it. After some time, HS shares that as he makes friends with it, the pain disappears. He feels bewildered / sad / disappointed that as he tries to make friends with the pain, the pain disappears. He rubs his face. I freeze him and probe him. HS feels happy and the hotseat ends. Hotseat Checkout TM feels happy at the conclusion of the hotseat. I voice my concern about using TTP medicinally. I am also confused about him feeling bewildered / sad / disappointed about the pain behind his eyes. I am reminded about this post on FAQ and share it with him that it may be something he can explore further. HS also shares that I push people into the forms rather quickly and do not let them complete their story. After the 3 hotseats, we elect to end the meeting. Meeting Check Out We share that we are all happy to attend this meeting. The current Tribe feels grateful to have the prior Tribe attending with us. We all also learn a few intricacies about Tribe meetings. We find some differences in our style. Our Tribe is rather vocal and loud in cheering the HS and also have a lot of physical movement whereas the other Tribe is calmer and the focusing is more internal. We look forward to having more meetings of this type. P.S: During the meeting, TM3 and other Tribe members praise me for voicing my concern about them using TTP medicinally. I feel like being in a spot and also feel like "Praising me? Really?" Regards, |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for documenting your Tribe Meeting. If you have concerns about using TTP medicinally, you might consider implementing the Rocks Process. The Rocks Process does not proceed by pushing; it proceeds by invitation and by qualification. You might consider taking your feelings about <pushing> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Jan
22, 2019 Back to Basics Ed, Thank you for your feedback. What is meant by to Tribe as an entry point? Kind regards |
Thank
you for raising this issue. For more information on TTP (The Trading Tribe Process) you might consider checking the Resources page, above. |
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| Jan
22, 2019 Charts Hi there: Thank you for posting Mr.Coyle's aggregation of your wisdom he gleaned from the Trading Tribe posting. Good reading for anyone thinking about trading. Also, enjoying your Chartbook and especially the Long Only system and Buy the Dip charts. One can see "one good trend pays for them all" by looking at the chart of Palladium seems to be a huge move to me. I did have an observation about the charts. They both look pretty much identical to me, yet the GAS Oil chart show a sky high buy point where as the Heating oil's buy point has dropped down to the consolidation area. Two different equations used? and Lastly, on your site Seykota.com you list music and in there is some music you and your son wrote and performed. Surely do love that tune "Wah, Wah, Wah" wish it were longer, but brings a smile to my face when I listen to it, just the same. Good work. |
Thank
you for raising this issue. I use the same equations for all the instruments; differences have to do with the charts themselves. |
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| Jan
22, 2019 Trading System Project Hi Ed, First, thank you for posting the FAQ aggregation and giving me credit. Second, on the 1/15/19 post entitled, "Trading System Project Incomplete" you said: "Thank you for visiting TSP. No other pages exist. I continue to extend my invitation to Contributors who might wish to continue the thread." I'll bite, what would continuing the thread entail? Thank you, George |
Thank
you for asking about TSP. I view TSP and FAQ as opportunities for contributors to inspire each other with their insights and learnings. I generally refrain from giving advice - other than to recommend taking issues to Tribe. You might consider taking your feelings about <extending TSP> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Jan
21, 2019 Gmail Flags TT Match-Up Messages Hi Mr. Seykota - Just wanted you to see how an email generated from the TT matching system showed up. Please note that I use Gmail also - and that it was Gmail and not my anti-virus software that flagged this. Wishing you all the best, Here is how the message appeared: |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for telling me about the issue with
Gmail. |
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| Jan
21, 2019 Tribe Member Match-Up Feedback Hi Ed, Thank you for taking time for our call today, it felt like a big warm hug to connect, really nice! I was able to successfully register after logging out of my ID#6 session from yesterday's registration which had remained active until then. I'm probably one of the few, maybe the only person to experience this edge case. Anyway... here is a video on Dropbox of what it looked like in case you are interested: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ 3klvmhprftqwzpz/signup.mov?dl=0 Once I registered again as ID# 106, I was also able to initiate a reach out to ID#1 in Austin TX. I saw the prompt/dialog (I like the UI for that feature, it's very clear) and received email confirmation after clicking the OK button. Here is what I see when using Chrome on a mac:  It looks like I can even connect with myself for a master beta test. :) I have some feedback on the reach-out process: 1 - I would like to see an indication that I can click the row to make something happen. A superficial button/link text with a prompt might help users like me understand how to use it. I acknowledge that the directions are clearly stated above the table and that this would be redundant. The extra simplification may make it more intuitive for the user with very little overhead.  If you want to keep it looking clean, the indication that click == connect could be via a tool-tip on mouse over like this:  https://www.w3schools.com/ howto/howto_css_tooltip.asp 2 - The automated email has been treated as suspicious by Gmail (my provider for [Domain].com email). Gmail is pretty strict/tough on deliverability but they publish clear guides on how to configure email servers to avoid being marked as spam or suspicious. I have attached a screen shot of the warning attached to the inbound email from the reach out process. My guess is that other Gmail users may experience similar warnings:  You may be able to avoid having email treated as suspicious by configuring reverse DNS, DKIM and SPF records for your email server per Google's guides. In my experience, one way to achieve good deliverability at a very low cost is to implement Amazon SES via an Amazon AWS account and then configure your DKIM, reverse DNS lookup and SPF records. You can use it with SMTP or via the API. Amazon also provides guidelines on how to set things up to achieve good deliverability. I use it on several projects for transactional emails like the Reach-out as well as for bulk email like newsletters etc. On the topic of bulk mail - If you ever want bulk mail to more than 50 addresses at once and would like a great self hosted email distribution app (like Mailchimp or Constant contact) without recurring fees and full list ownership, Sendy is a nice tool that is built to work with AWS SES. It is uses php and mysql. https://sendy.co That's all I have for now... Thank you for inviting me to test and provide feedback. If there are other features you would like me to test let me know. I'll stay tuned for the next update. Best, |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for sending me your feedback and
suggestions for improving the client experience.
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| Jan
21, 2019 A Trade Off Hi Ed, I’ve been thinking about diversification to reduce risk and account volatility as you mentioned previously. Some people may prefer less volatility in their account. It could also be used in a way to trade more and satisfy that desire instead of patiently waiting for those optimal trades that a more focus portfolio would give you. A new question arises. Do you want to trade more or optimise your account for less volatility and still be a trend follower. What’s your thoughts? Regards |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for raising this issue. You might consider taking your feelings about <volatility> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Jan
21, 2019 TT Charting Module - Feedback Hi Mr. Seykota - Just a heads-up.... I think there might be something wrong with the data for Platinum in the charting module. All the best,
|
Thank
you for participating in the beta test and for sharing your feedback
and supporting graphic.. I see I have a bug in the routine that rolls contracts forward. |
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| Jan
21, 2019 Trading System Project (TSP) Thanks Ed, I am hoping to assist with this project and complete it with you. I am fairly new and would need guidance on the topic. I hope to learn from this experience and see how everything is interconnected. I will start stringing together some ideas for Acknowledging Limits section based on account equity, Instruments traded and stop loss points. I will then look at margins and examples such as Hunts cornering the silver market, crude oil during Iraq war and others. These events were before my time. If you have any suggestions on other events which impact Margin please advise. In all honesty I have never done anything like this before. At the age of 33 I never thought I would. I will try working around my degree to get this done as soon as possible. P.s. Based on your advice about observing markets, learning statistics and being able to program. I have enrolled in a Computer, IT and Statistics Degree. Whilst observing and trading. Thank you for your simple but effective suggestions. |
Thank
you for sharing your process. You might consider taking your feelings about <figuring things out for yourself> and <needing guidance> to Tribe as an entry point. The FAQ Aggregation (see resources, above) shows up in my email, to my surprise, without my requesting it or supervising it or even knowing about it. |
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| Jan
20, 2019 Calculating Strength Hi Ed, Thank you for your comments. Ed: “Thank you for raising this issue. The "best" solution depends on your personal definition of "best." For example, say you define "best" as making the highest rate of return. Then, you have this optimal solution: (1) put one and only one instrument into your portfolio: namely, the strongest. (2) when your instrument looses its status as strongest, take it out of the portfolio and repeat step 1. All other portfolio selection methods inherit from this, your optimal solution. For example, you can diversify and get a slower, smoother and less profitable ride - a better fit for someone with a lower tolerance for volatility. You might consider taking your feelings about <better> to Tribe as an entry point.” Your point about strongest instrument for highest return I can understand. But how do you calculate strongest? Was this the point you made to Dr David Druz when you told him “The Bund is the best market out there now” and diversification was not logical in this situation? I’m not sure if you remember that far back or how accurate that statement was but it apparently made a big impact on Dr Druz from what I have read. I understand the averaging of gains and reduction of drawdowns would better fit some and give a smoother return, and keep them mentally on track and It may even suit me. But the strongest instrument is a very interesting point. Kind Regards |
Thank
you for raising this issue. You can measure chart strength by using the "Inspection System." Namely, you print out a bunch of price charts and put them up on the wall. Then you step back some distance and rank them by inspection. Then, you take a moment and you think about how are able to do this. Once you understand your own process (that involves your own personal preferences) you can code up your system and run it on a computer. I prefer not to comment on apocryphal and third-hand stories about things I might have said. I can, however, give you an exact secret parameter (below) for the distance back from the wall to stand when executing the Inspection System. You might consider taking your feelings about strength and weakness to Tribe as entry points.
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| Jan
20, 2019 Synchronicity Dear Ed, I have just read FAQ for some wisdom and insight but not expecting a reply; I am touched by this. I wanted to reach out again to thank you for your reply and for your advice below; I’m on to it, hence Cc! Ed: Thank you for your offer for pizza. I wonder if I can trade up to some bubble and squeak. You might consider encouraging your Tribe Leader to register with The Trading Tribe - to receive reach-outs from potential Tribe Members by email. See Resources, above. And thank you for your reply to my tribe leader: Ed: explore the meaning of meaning; operate from the void. In my experience, people who actively pursue TTP wind up operating from the void and also wind up attracting students and mentoring them. I had interpreted your initial reply to him in the same way that you have subsequently clarified, and encouraged him to consider this as per the email I’ve cut and pasted below: As you know, I’m fairly new to the [City] Tribe and I’ve only met up with [the Chief] at half a dozen meetings but I have a feeling that [his] process might just inevitably be guiding him to fulfil his huge potential as a wonderful home-grown Ed! ... Indeed he is hugely tall; goodness knows how much bubble and squeak was invested into that! How bizarre that in the midst of composing my reply, I have just received you email. When the student(s) are ready… Best wishes |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for helping to beta-test the new
Registration pages - that aim to facilitate finding and forming new
Tribes. See Resources, above. |
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| Jan
20, 2019 FAQ Aggregation Hi Ed, I see FAQ is on hiatus so hope you are well. I continued on with the project I mentioned about a year ago of aggregating FAQ wisdom. I’ve now read everything through mid-2015 and have 20+ pages I have turned into a Q&A (attached). The first page outlines my method. Despite how the first page reads, I haven’t published this or really done anything with it beyond revisit it for the wisdom. I figured I would share what I have compiled since, after all, it is really yours. Thanks for sharing all this wisdom on the website. I welcome your thoughts. Thank you, |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for sending me your aggregation. I now have it on line, verbatim, as an HTML file, via Resources, above. I also have it crediting you for your contribution. |
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| Jan
19, 2019 Charting Weight Loss Mr. Seykota - Thank You for taking interest in the progress of my weight loss and for requesting an updated (and hopefully clearer) chart. Fibonacci fans might enjoy measuring the retracement during the period where I added weight back on. The physics behind the weight gain are explained by a period of time where I ate more and exercised less. Since the scale is located in my building's gym, the flat periods show where exercise was not done. Since that time, I have a scale in my bathroom and weigh myself every other day. I don't recall any strong emotions during that period of time. The thought process of "You're only one meal away from getting back in The Zone" provided a wonderful excuse to cheat and overindulge in various foods. I didn't experience any depression or anxiety then - and I don't now. I view it as "It is what it is" and take full responsibility. There was nothing unusual going on in my life that created a "need for medicate". I simply enjoyed eating and not exercising. At a certain point I realized that a new trend was established and required a change to stricter eating and exercise. I felt fine mentally - but not physically. I was tired, sluggish and lazy. My stops were hit. I could physically feel the need for change. And I just did it. And I still do it. I view the graph like a stock chart. Trends don't last forever. You can't inhale all the time and never exhale. The tide or waves never run in a single direction. Like a draw down, this is a bump in the road - and I'm sure there will be more.
|
Thank
you for sharing your process and for reporting your feelings about it. |
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| Jan
18, 2019 Double and Triple Dear Mr. Seykota, I have been in the finance field (stock-> stock options-> commodities) for five years and i have traveled to the commodities field in the last year. Fortunately I have tripled my account just within last year (started from the mid of March), which was really amazing to myself, but I refer it to a piece of luck, although I have some technical analysis skills (mainly MACD, RSI, OBV, volume, and price patterns), in which I know that was not enough.. I used to doubled my account before that, by one and a half year, but now I found that if I do well in the commodities field, I could make much more money then in the stock field except extreme market. After reading the conversation of you in the book of Market Wizards, you became my new idol. Could you please tell me more about how to trade well in the commodities market and also, should I enter the forex market someday? Thank you so much for reading my email, it is my honour. Best regards, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. FAQ does not offer specific trading advice or recommend specific trading systems or parameters or tell people what they should do. See Ground Rules, above. You might consider taking your feelings about <risk> and <volatility> and <winning> to Tribe as entry points. |
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| Jan
16, 2019 Portfolio Selection Hi Ed, Do you have any guidance in how to construct a portfolio for markets to trade? Would a method such as checking the last say 75 days correlation on the close price of markets do or should it be 100, 200? Or is there a better method… Maybe you could recommend a book? Regards |
Thank
you for raising this issue. The "best" solution depends on your personal definition of "best." For example, say you define "best" as making the highest rate of return. Then, you have this optimal solution: (1) put one and only one instrument into your portfolio: namely, the strongest. (2) when your instrument looses its status as strongest, take it out of the portfolio and repeat step 1. All other portfolio selection methods inherit from this, your optimal solution. For example, you can diversify and get a slower, smoother and less profitable ride - a better fit for someone with a lower tolerance for volatility. You might consider taking your feelings about <better> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Jan
15, 2019 Trading System Project Incomplete Hi Ed, I was looking at your Trading System Project http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/index.htm . It was last updated on 2006 (Diversification Study). So you have the remaining parts of the project not posted? Kind regards |
Thank
you for visiting TSP. No other pages exist. I continue to extend my invitation to Contributors who might wish to continue the thread. |
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| Jan
12, 2019 Wants to Attend a Workshop in Europe Dear Ed, I recently discovered and joined a local TT and am very excited about the journey. Would like to register my interest in attending your workshop in London or Europe if the opportunity arises. Best wishes |
Thank
you for asking about a Workshop in London or Europe. You might consider visiting the Registration Link at Resources, above. I can keep track of the people registering a wish to attend a Workshop. When I see enough interest in any particular area, I can announce a Workshop. |
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| Jan
12, 2019 Wants to Meet in April Hello Ed I will be going to a conference in Austin on April 18 - 19. Would love to meet you while I am there, just to say hello and see how you are doing. Would you be open for coffee/lunch/dinner if your are available on the 17th or 19th (afternoon)? Let me know. Kind Regards |
Thank
you for reaching out to me. I don't have my social calendar pages out that far into the non-existing future. How about check back around April 10. |
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| Jan
11, 2019 Father Needs Help Hi Mr. Seykota, I’m reaching out to you because my father needs help. He’s been trading for 15 years off and on. He taught me how to trade futures on the S&P and he really knows his stuff. His issue is his mind. He looks up to your words and work very much about the human psychology and how important that is for a trader to get right if they want to be successful. My dad does great for a month and the next month, his mind goes and he loses it. He’s tried so many things to keep him in line. Everything. His disciplines are the first to go if there’s something happening in his life that he cannot control and isn’t going well. However, he learns this when it’s too late and the damage is already done to his trading account. He doesn’t know I’m writing you and I’m sure he wouldn’t be too pleased to know that I am, but I just feel like I don’t know who else to turn to in order to help him succeed. Do you have any suggestions for how he can prevent himself from going through this self-sabotage routine after every successful month? Thank you for your time Mr. Seykota. Best, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. I can address your issues here. If your father wants to pose his own issues, he can write to FAQ himself. I gather you like to manage your father, and perhaps other people as well. I also gather your control toolkit includes keeping secrets. I might recommend your techniques to mushroom farmers who have to manage conditions carefully and keep their crops in the dark. You might consider taking your feelings about <controlling others> to Tribe as an entry point. Meanwhile, you might experiment with listening to your father's feelings and sharing yours with him. |
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| Jan
11, 2019 Wants to Attend Austin Tribe and Workshop Ed, Whoop whoop - workshop and Austin tt! I feel excited to attend both. Mid April or later is better for me - I am coordinating travel. Thank you, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. See Resources, above, to Register, to express your interest attending a Workshop and to reach out to the Austin Tribe. (New TT feature). |
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| Jan
11, 2019 Wants to Join a Tribe Dear Mr Seykota, I came to know about Trading Tribe Process (TTP) through the Trend Following book by Michael Covel. I read your web page about it, and would like to attend such a session as well. I also understand that this process cannot be done on my own, or rather, it is very difficult to do it on my own (and I would like to join a group to discuss about how they manage their emotions/ feelings that arises during trading). So, is there a TTP group in Singapore that you are aware of? If there is, would you kindly provide me with the contact for it please? Regards, |
Thank
you for asking how to connect with a Tribe in your area. See Resources, above, to Register and then to reach out to Tribes and Potential Tribe Members in your area. (New TT feature). |
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| Jan
11, 2019 Turning the Tables Ed, Unfortunately I don't read your website. I don't understand your responses - after all I flew to Reno based on my misunderstandings of them once before, so that was enough for me. Once bitten twice shy eh? ;-) I know when I left Reno after trying to meet you that I was angry and determined to find the truth...because I was sure there was something much deeper going on. And now, some 10 or more years later the truth is starting to reveal itself to me. It seems that a lot of us have been party to an international fraud on a monumental scale and that now the tables are turning. I'm just sitting back and waiting to see how all this unfolds now. Best regards, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. I can pass your insights along to some friends of mine who run restaurants - as they have an intense interest in their table turnover rates. For example, they train their waiters to attend the table within one minute of seating, to drop the check before the end of the meal and to encourage the diners to take a second seating in the bar area to enjoy a disgestif. |
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| Jan
10, 2019 Wants to Update Tribe Listing Hi Ed, I feel happy to see you have updated FAQ! I would like to thank you for TTP and Tribe again. I think of you often and continue to implement what I have learned in our Tribe work. My essential Tribe continues to grow and we are beneficiaries of intimacy centric relating. It really works well for us. I like the results. I notice the FAQ post regarding NYC Tribe and have attached a replacement document for the directory. I it is clearer and more accurate than the one from 2014. I would love to speak with you, hear your voice and to know that you are well. With gratitude and big hug, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. You can now list your Tribe on line and receive reach-outs from potential Tribe Members. You can also register as someone looking to join a Tribe - or as someone who would like to attend a Workshop. To register, see Resources, above. |
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| Jan
10, 2019 Therapist Lists TTP Meetings as CPD Evidence Dear Ed, Each year, I’m required to submit evidence of at least 50 hours of CPD ‘Continuing Professional Development’ as part of my appraisal. 5 years of satisfactory CPD then contributes to General Medical Council revalidation (the revalidation cycle) , which allows me to continue with my medical career. I count myself very fortunate to have been allocated a very insightful appraiser this year, who I was able to negotiate undertaking my process as part of my CPD for the 2019/20 appraisal. I have attached a screen shot of my appraisal log. As you can see, I have started to enter my ‘TTP diary’ after each 3-weekly TTP meeting. As per previous correspondence and having read your book, hearing of others experiences of TTP both in your book and in FAQs, and exploring other influences and insights, I am convinced that you are responsible for developing a profound intervention. I have had some quite significant personal ‘Aha’s’ already, so I think it is entirely appropriate that I have included TTP in my ‘re-validation’ cycle. I’m mindful of the pizza analogy and I’ve no intention of keep phoning orders through; no need to reply. However, if you get enough interest in pizza in London or elsewhere in Europe, I’d be pleased to have an opportunity to pay for a slice, and have knowledge of three other committed pizza fans who are happy to do the same. My Responses to Trading Tribe Application I wonder what you intend to get out of Trading Tribe meetings? I work as an NHS GP, and the interest I have in mental health and in optimising my own head has been really helpful in my therapeutic work with patients. I've become interested in practical philosophy, and secular Buddhism. I undertake 20min daily meditations over the last few years, and I'm now starting to develop a sense of who I'm supposed to be, and Right Livelihood. I hope to continue to optimise through TTP, collaborating with likeminded people in the TTP group. I'm sure this will help me professionally and personally. From a medical perspective, I'm fascinated by the various means to the same ends which I've come across over recent years and I've found reading Michael Singer's Unthered Soul really helpful, and have found Matthieu Richard's scientific work on meditation inspiring. Ed Seykota is clearly quite brilliant; it's incredibly impressive that he came to the realisation he did with respect to the cartography of the mind concept, let alone how to tackle k-nots in the manner he has set out in the process The medical profession are just starting to catch up with these ideas, particularly with the more extreme k-nots associated with post-traumatic stress, and therapeutic strategies which encourage collaboration between Fred and conscious awareness. I've no doubt that TTP works and appreciate the rationale for it from my own experiences as an interested clinician, and I'm certain of the impact of therapeutic group work. I've an understanding of the therapeutic consultation as part of my day job, and receive about 6,000 patient-agendas a year, so don't think receiving will be a problem, but I think I might need to get used to sending. I am very open to the experience and the process; contributing, learning and developing Right Livelihood with the group. I see trading as simply a testing ground to see whether one can achieve mindfulness, equanimity and non-attachment irrespective of circumstances. I've made some definite progress in this respect, but appreciate that I am still acting out some unresolved k-nots. For many years I’ve seen myself as a frustrated fund manager/investor, but I’m hoping to continue to lose ego and attachment to become more proficient as a trader; very early days here. Could you please describe to me in your own words your understanding of the TTP process? My understanding of TTP is that the meetings provide a safe therapeutic, collaborative environment in which participants can express and resolve uncomfortable subconscious emotions/forms which traditional talking therapies don’t really understand and cannot access. Reading the extension, my understanding of the Rocks process is that recurring maladaptive automatic/unconscious attempts to self-medicate emotional reactions can be addressed and replaced with a more therapeutic response and solution. Some of the maladaptive responses to stressors might be alcohol, drugs etc, and others might be maladaptive parental responses to situations, which have been picked up and learned in childhood. I hope I’m on the right track with this. Rather difficult to answer, as it feels a bit like trying to drive when I’ve only done the theory test. I’m sure TTP needs to be experienced for some time prior to being encapsulated in any description. Best wishes, |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for your initiative in integrating TTP
principles into the formal therapeutic community. Thank you for your offer for pizza. I wonder if I can trade up to some bubble and squeak. You might consider encouraging your Tribe Leader to register with The Trading Tribe - to receive reach-outs from potential Tribe Members by email. See Resources, above. |
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| Jan
10, 2019 Gets Out of Debt Hello Ed, Over a year ago I was in £40,000 debt. Struggling with sleepless nights. Feeling I was in a deep dark pit with no way out. Around that time I discovered futures trading and soon came across your name. I heard about your amazing returns and saw that as my way out. I decided to read everything I could find about you. I then contacted you. You told me to learn programming, spend time in looking at the markets and learn statistics. You then advised books I should read. In one of the books I picked up on something like “A losing trader can’t change in to a winning trader. That’s what winners do”. I also read another comment you made, something like successful traders are successful in what they are have done and are currently doing”. Sorry I can’t remember the exact quote. But those quotes really made me think. I want to trade, I find it’s puzzle is to be the fun part something about that is always pulling me towards it. Anyways. I realised if I can’t be successful in what I am doing, and if I can’t change from a loser to a winner then that is all down to me. I have to fix me. Then I set out to do that. Not by trading myself out of debt but by becoming successful in what I am doing. This isn’t to show off. I know many people have done greater things. But those words of inspiration and action from my part had me out of that £40,000 debt around 6 months. Not by dying and not enjoying life through completely cutting cost. But by cutting unnecessary costs and working harder in becoming a winner and making more money wherever possible. My next goal was to raise a stake for trading and continue on this track of being a winner and becoming a successful trader. The last 6 months I have managed to save another £45,000 for trading. I wanted to say thank you and that your insight really helped me. I now look forward to continuing my normal 9-5 Clark Kent job lol so I am not overwhelmed by the must be right or must make money on this trade strain. I trade in the evening on the close. And whenever possible, improve my knowledge of the markets, statistics and programming. From this message if you have any insights you feel you should share with me or other about me please do. Growth invites advice from people with more knowledge. I know I still have much to learn. Again thank you very much. |
Thank
you for sharing your process, including implementing
discipline in your spending and in your trading. |
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| Jan 8,
2019 TT_Chartbook Indicators Ed, Thanks a lot for your reply. Can I please ask I am trying to understand the following in the TT chart book published. 1. What is the arrow and red line means in "buy the dip" system. Is that mean buy at the arrow with red line as stop loss. 2. What is green and red line means in "Long only trend following" system. Is that mean long above green line with stop loss at red line and reverse. I really appreciate any reply as I would like to clarify what I am thinking is same as what you meant. Thanks and Regards, |
Thank
you for raising this issue. In the Buy-the-Dip System, red lines indicate sell stops and triangles indicate entries. In the Long-Only System green lines indicate buy stops, red lines indicate sell stops and triangles indicate entries. http://www.seykota.com/TT_Chartbook/default.html |
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| Jan 8,
2019 Eye-Popping Results Hi Ed This is my response to last post of year on FAQ - Dec 31, 2018. How many avg. trade days held do you consider to be short term? Depending on what you consider short term, I may have what meets your response. My system's avg. trade days held is just over 8 days. Very simple - buys rallies/sells dips. The one & only way out of a trade is to reverse. I like this system a lot, stats are eyepopping. I'd trade it myself if I had the money. Be glad to send you the Excel file if you want to have a look at it. As always, thanks Ed. |
Thank
you for sharing your process. I consider short-term trades as those of durations less than a couple days. I have yet to see any "proof" of the profitability of an automatic short-term trading system. Proof consists of: 1. Set of 6 consecutive months of broker statements. 2. Set of all the signals emanating from the system for the same 6-month interval. 3. Document proving the brokerage statements and the system signals match. I have seen such proof for longer-term systems.
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| Jan 8,
2019 Buy and Hold Hi Mr. Seykota, İ know that trading is mostly about behaviours, thoughts and feelings..ofcourse it has math in it..but when i research about trading against investment or long term Holding strategy i am getting confused between These two strategy..there are so many examples about these issues..but we know that World’s best investor is using buy and hold strategy..i dont want to use his name.But i quess,everybody know him..what is the truth about this? May be in public we cant reach the true arguments about These theories..i know that you are a technical analist,trend follower and much more may be..but what is your opinion about buy and hold strategy ? İf it is useless,how can world’s richest peop making his all money with investing or buy and hold strategy? And Thanks for your reply to my first mail..which is about Robin Hood.i wish you tell me your thoughts about investing,buy and hold strategy.. İ wish happy moments to you and all people.. Thanks.. |
Thank
you for raising this issue. Buy-and-Hold strategies work well for instruments that keep trending. Otherwise, they don't work so well; you might ask some of your Bitcoin investor friends for their opinions on buy-and-hold. Successful investors have a method for detecting trends and a method for staying with the trends until they end. Technical traders use price patterns to detect trends; fundamental traders use economic indicators to detect trends. Note: all profit comes from price change - and price change implies a trend. You might consider taking your feelings of [confusion] to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Jan 6,
2019 The Process of Helping Others Hi Ed, Hope you are doing well! Reaching out to you is an acknowledgment of your influence, a thank-you and a statement of intent to myself. Last time we traded emails was early 2000s. At the time we were debating whether one should sort oneself out before helping others (my stance) and helping others as a way to help yourself. Since then, I've gotten a masters in counseling and am currently employed as an executive coach and have through experience come to a different equilibrium on the topic. The process of helping others has been the most rewarding and fulfilling part of my life. The process of developing mastery in that skill set, understanding myself, accepting responsibility for myself, changing for the better, developing a career and making money have all been "nice." I often use the quote "nobody cares how much you until they know how much you care" quite often in my work with others, as well as a compass point. The direction to master psych, philosophy and develop that skillet was in part a defense mechanism and a way to avoid my own feelings of fear and "not-good-enough", and part a genuine love for understanding and helping myself and then others. Working through all of that has been interesting, and being able to come alongside people without fear or judgment has been one of the most important changes I've made. I feel an enormous sense of gratitude for having found my right livelihood and getting to be a part of others journeys, and having tools to help them move in the direction of their potential, which was always my goal for myself. Looking back, there is no way to develop oneself in a vacuum and setting out to develop to the highest level I can reach has only been possible with a large and continual supply of humility and respect for myself AND others at the same time. I appreciate your thoughts and advice on serving others and prioritizing this higher. Thanks for that. We met once in the mid 1990s, when I snuck into a seminar you held in Chicago. I was a clerk at the CME at the time. I remember that your intention was to discuss what a trend was. You proceeded to show the group a series of paper currencies from the last 250 years or so, and compared them by quality of paper, complexity, amount of different colors of ink, printing techniques and so on. You concluded (best as I recall) by saying that the current US paper money was very cheap on all accounts compared to the others. I understand this so much better now! It is a great memory and anecdote. My wife and I have let someone else manage our money since 2004, and I haven't traded at all since probably 2001. I am now feeling that I am abdicating my responsibility for this to avoid that responsibility (worry, fear) and if I continue doing so we will not reach our retirement goals. Having an institutional mandate of "always long stocks no matter what" is the reason we haven't been able to come close to the rule of 72 and maximize our returns...doesn't make sense to me. I keep thinking there has to be a better way to do this and that I'm letting the knowledge and experience I do have go to waste instead of taking the responsibility for my own money. Nobody is going to care more about my family than I do. My plan is to test out some strategies on when to be in and when to be flat, as well as looking into some other trend trading opportunities and slowly make the transition back to trading it myself. It is a scary proposition, and those feelings are there to help with the risk. Looking forward to getting my copy of Govopoly and connecting with the local Trading Tribe. From what I've read, Govopoly seems to be right on. I've noticed some FAQ posts on weight loss and I find the process very similar to trading. I've recently had a big AHA in this area, and am having success. I'd be happy to share my process and what is working, perhaps contribute in some way to the site. I can envision a "trading system" for losing weight. I like that you said you could hang a daily bar chart on the wall, step back a little and see the trend. Simple does not mean easy though, which is the same for weight management. Funny thing is once you are having success for the right reasons, you "get it" - you get the aha. I am looking forward to searching this out in my investing/trading going forward. Very Best to You and Yours, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. |
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| Jan 6,
2019 Proof Just about everything I've been taught about our world I can now prove to be a lie Ed. An appalling situation to be in. |
Thank
you for sharing your process. I wonder how your proof digests the following: "This sentence is false." |
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| Jan 5,
2019 Workshop Hi Ed, It is great to see updates from you again in FAQ, been following it for many years for my personal growth and always wanted to join your workshop, I feel excited when you mention that you can have a workshop in spring, hope to hear more updates on the details soon as i probably need some time to prepare for this 10700miles journey (if it is in Puerto Rico). best regards |
Thank
you for sharing your process. I plan to have Workshop details on line later this month. |
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| January
5, 2019 Newbury UK Tribe Ed good afternoon and I hope my email finds you well. I attach an update for the Newbury Tribe which continues to meet as members request. Also, my thanks for your recent update to FAQ. I have a few Aha’s catching up which really brightens my day. I notice I haven’t met you in person and would very much like too. I wonder if you might consider holding a workshop in London which I could attend? Alternatively, I plan to visit the USA in 2019 and wonder if I might buy you a coffee to say thank you for introducing me to TTP, Holotropic breath work and right livelihood? Finally, I am most curious about your views on “perception and response” as a substitute for the phrase “cause and effect”? Take care and as always a huge thank you for FAQ and your ever evolving support for Tribe. |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for updating your Newbury information. In the Causal Model, we have cause and effect. We flip the switch (cause) and the light goes on (effect). In the System Model, we consider the dynamics of a system of Levels and Rates-of-Flow between the Levels. A bucket with a hole at the bottom loses water, rapidly at first. As the water level declines, so does the flow rate. The level informs the rate and the rate drains the bucket. If we simulate this process as a series of small time intervals, we see the water level (and the flow rate) cooperating to generate a semi-exponential decline in both of them. Note: purely exponential decay follows only if the flow rate and level have strict linear proportionality. In an actual bucket-and-hole situation, they have more of a square-root relationship.. Consider how a pendulum works. Causal view: you whack it and it goes back and forth. System View: acceleration, velocity, position, friction, gravity and string length all interact to generate a sine wave with definite period, amplitude and decay. Perception and Response can have various meanings depending on how you view them. |
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| January
4, 2019 Trading Improves Hi Ed Happy New Year. Thanks to your wisdom my trading has improved a lot since I met with you. I had been trading ETF's so far and in September of 2018 I took the plunge to trade futures. Needless to say the market gave me a big jolt, with 9 straight losses. After every loss I would listen to your whipsaw song - "One Good Trend Pays for 'em all" line would always give me hope. I was down by 29% by mid-November and then had a big win that brought my equity loss to 11% - "One good trend pays for 'em all" Thank you for everything. Hopefully you will have another breathwork workshop this year. Count me in if you have it. |
Thank
you for sharing your process. |
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| January
3, 2019 Wants TTP for Free Dear Mr. Seykota ... Im 23 years old living in Riverside, CA. I was raised lived the entirety of my life in Mexico, in a little town near the border call Mexicali, til last year (2018) when I moved out on my own looking for a job to earn a stake I can trade for my own. I dwelved the past 3 years completely into trading, in doing so dropping out University back in Mexico. As you can imagine going down my path of learning of alot of things along the market many which are not really necessary I finally understood the importance of knowing yourself. I bought The Trading Tribe of your webpage just a few weeks ago. After reading the first couple of pages I was deeply fascinated with the whole thing. I went in to check where can I learn to actually do this or where to attend but the cost for the event are simply way out of my available range(from 3000 to 5000). Is there any options or ways to attending a Trading Tribe without having to pay that much I really apreciate all you have already done for all of us trying to make it in the crazy world of trading. |
Thank
you for asking about free TTP. You have several ways to proceed, all for free. You can interact with the TTP FAQ. You can read through the historical entries. You can attend a Tribe in your area. You can start your own Tribe. You also have some ways to proceed, for a fee. TTP Workshop - intensive weekend training. Private consulting - see Ground Rules, above. |
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| January
3, 2019 Wants to be Like Ed help me! Please want to be like you on the stock market for trading |
Thank
you for asking for help. If you want to be like me, you might consider encouraging people to be like themselves. |
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| January
3, 2019 re: Money and Happiness - Sep 21, 2018 Dear Ed, Thank you for getting back to me. I do not understand what you mean by 'You also come to accept your calling as a guide for others who wish to follow.' Would you please clarify what you mean here? I would like to attend a workshop if you get the numbers. I am particularly interested in learning more about the Rocks Process. The London Tribe experimented with it for the first time last year with mixed results. cheers, |
Thank
you for pointing out some rather obscure language. Perhaps I can present it another way. People engaging TTP (or other spiritual path) generally follow a progression of approaches: - Logical; try to understand; TTP theory. - Medicinal; let off some steam and feel better; TTP Zero-Point Process; TTP Forms-Integration Process. - Proactive; identify and change basic response patterns; TTP Rocks Process. - Intentional; develop life skills; TTP Snapshot Process. - Spiritual; explore the meaning of meaning; operate from the void. In my experience, people who actively pursue TTP wind up operating from the void and also wind up attracting students and mentoring them. |
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| January
2, 2019 re: Wants to Set Up a Tribe (Jan 1, 2019) Thank you Ed, I want to 1) help the traders be better traders through working through their k-nots, and hopefully build better relationships in the process 2) work through my k-nots, and hopefully be a better trader in the process We trade on an open trading floor together but we each manage our own trading businesses. I travel to Austin this Friday, coincidentally. If you offer the tribe series I will submit an application for enrollment. Also I am curious about your plans to deal with specific trading issues and software to enable members to design trades and systems collaboratively. My friend is a brilliant data scientist, python programmer and musician. This year we started to explore trading systems together and are both big fans of your published work. He will likely submit an application for enrollment as well. |
Thank
you for expressing an interest in attending the Austin Tribe. I plan to have more materials on line this month. |
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| January
2, 2019 Likes Tar on Foot Ed, I very much appreciated the whole walking on the beach, 'tar on my foot ' metaphor really insightful and clever. Reading some of the FAQ, I feel your pain, but I also thank you for the marvelous answers! |
Thank
you for encouraging me. |
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| January
2, 2019 Trade War Ed, I wonder what you think about a situation like this: Imagine two countries, Country A has a population of 2 Billion, ruled by authoritarian regime, and is underdeveloped by “western” country standards. Country B, industrial powerhouse, richest country on earth, highly refined technology, manufacturing, and engineering sectors and has a population of 300 million. Country A instructs Country B corporations that if they want to sell their products within Country A, they have to manufacture them within the borders of Country A. If not, the products are not allowed to be imported or some can be imported with 85% tariffs. Country B tells Country A they can import products at a 15% tariff. One day, Country B elects a President. He is a simple kind of guy, businessman by profession. He is not an economist or philosopher, or even a politician by normal expectations. All he knows is “bidness”. Country B’s new President tells Country A to lower their tariffs, and ease importation rules to normally accepted standards, or else Country A’s products will be taxed at equivalent and reciprocal rates when imported into Country B. A government organization – The World Trade Association, sides with Country A on the basis the standard of living of County A is less than Country B and Country A’s citizens deserve this. This even though Country B’s standard of living will decline. For decades, Country B has rang up large government budget deficits to “stimulate” the living standard, and while unemployment is low there is an excess of waiters, bartenders, artists, etc. So from a free market perspective, Country B does not have full, free-market based employment. Country A has absorbed manufacturing jobs from Country B with subversion of the free trade principles that many economists agree are the best. The question to you is: Is the policy decisions of the Bidness man President short-sided or is there a bigger “war” being fought over the longer term? Under this hypothetical situation, what do you think would be the best policy approach for the President to follow? All hypothetical of course! |
Thank
you for raising this issue. You trade with other people so you don't have to grow your own food, generate your own electricity and manufacture your own computers; the standard of living rises quickly for everyone when people trade freely. Tariffs restrict the freedom to trade and thereby reduce (or slow the growth of) the overall standard of living. The Govopoly System uses tariffs the same way it uses other taxes: namely, as a way to raise revenue and as a way reward some groups of people at the expense of others. For example, if the US imposes a 25% tax on steel imports, then it gains corresponding "tax" revenue from people who consume steel. in the US. It also rewards US steel manufacturers with an exemption from having to compete with cheaper foreign steel. In my book, Govopoly in the 39-th Day, I show how creating monopolies by government sanction (Govopolies), weakens the economy and leads to its collapse. Tariff proponents claim the tariffs have to do with fighting "unfair" practices by foreign government. More to the point, tariffs, like other taxes, have to do with extending the reach of the Govopoly System. I view tariffs as an indicator that confirms the price differential between US-source and foreign-source goods and services. I expect this eventually to resolve through inflation. Other alternatives include massive cuts in government spending (ain't gonna happen) and trade wars escalating into military wars (super inflationary).
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| January
2, 2019 T = 0 Hello Ed, Wonderful to hear from you after some (non-existing) time :-) With a big hug, and many thanks for all your guidance over the years. |
Thank
you for acknowledging me and the work. |
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| January
1, 2019 TTP Workshop Ed, I read in October 2018 FAQ you intend to hold a Workshop. If your intention is to hold this in Europe, depending on the cost, I would like to attend. Regards |
Thank
you for expressing interest in attending a TTP Workshop. I sense interest from people who with to observe and practice the Rocks Process and other recent innovations in the TTP process. I can host a Workshop in most any area of the world if I can get together a critical mass of between 12 to 24 participants. |
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| January
1, 2019 A Just Sentence Dear Ed, Thank you for your reply and thank you for what was for me the most pertinent sentence in your updated FAQ (September 13, 2018): Ed Says: "I consider the Trading Tribe more like a walk on the beach with some friends, as we go along and notice who shows up to enhance the adventure." Kind regards |
Thank
you for acknowledging the sentence and for grasping the Heart and
Science of TTP. |
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| January
1, 2019 Winning by Failing Hello Ed Sir, First of all I wish you a very Happy New Year sir. May 2019 be a great year of health and happiness for you. Its such a privilege to get a reply from you having read and heard about you so much. Stories that inspire and make us want to be like you, if not at least be in someway in touch with you, to learn to grow. How lucky are those who got the chance to do so, have you as their mentor, to show them the path when they failed. I secretly hope that wish I could have the same, how different life would be. I am thankful that you took the time to read my big email and even drop a reply. I just came across it today. I apologize. However Ed Sir, I am afraid I couldn't understand you reply about the book and stretching arms analogy. My bad. But I am deeply grateful that at least I got a reply from you. I means a lot, really. One of your fan ... from India. |
Thank
you for sharing your process - and for doing so in a very brief manner. You may recall your questions to me (See FAQ September 8, 2018) in which you say. "So, I too seek to be at your feet, be you disciple. Mentor me Ed Seykota Sir. Please." If you ask for guidance, and receive it, you might then consider making some effort to understand the instructions and to follow them. For example, you might consider asking a friend or a colleague to help you understand the instructions and how to carry out the instructions. The instructions and your reaction to them can serve me as a diagnostic tool. In particular your reactions inform me about your willingness to do the work and it also protects me from falling into a co-dependent relationship with a student who wants to win by failing. In case you do not wish to understand the instructions or to carry out the instructions, you might then have a partial answer, for both of us, to your original question. You might also consider creating a Tribe in your area and taking your issues there as entry points. |
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| January
1, 2019 Wants to Set Up a Tribe Within His Firm Ed thanks for the response! I enjoy receiving it. I want to ask you more questions and hope to meet you one day ... I want to create a Trading Tribe within the firm. I bought your book but I am nervous to act as Chief without experiencing a tribe meeting myself. May you please introduce me to an existing Tribe so that I can attend a meeting? I am based in New York City and am willing to travel to attend. Thanks again and best wishes from me to you, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. I wonder if you can tell me more about what you want to accomplish. Trading Tribes have a lot to do with personal growth, and incidentally something to do with trading - to the extent it serves as a metaphor for deeper issues. I don't see a natural 1:1 overlay between Tribe Meetings and trading businesses. Along this line, I plan to offer a 10-Session Tribe series in Austin starting around March. I also plan to deal with specific trading issues and also to implement software to enable the members to design trades and systems collaboratively. |
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