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Contributors Say Ed Says
March 28, 2010

Corona and Govopoly

Ed,

ED says: The economy cannot continue along in this fantasy for ever. Some external constraints have to set in. The nature and timing of these constraints lie outside the scope of the Assimilation Model. We can, however, make some reasonable guesses about how they might come about.  

Is Corona virus that outside constraint which starts the avalanche.
The Assimilation Model indicates secular contraction of the Free-Competition Sector.

I notice Covid-19, and the anxiety attending it, provide justification for further expansion of the Govopoly System and reduction of the Freedom Index.

For more on this, see link.
Mar 27, 2020

Fear of Death

Dear Ed,

I am really scared from the news and increased spread of Corona Virus. I am not sure whether you have a reply for it. Here in India we are getting news that Government hospitals are keeping Corona patients in a isolated rooms with no treatment, no water. Hospitals are treating them as untouchables. We are not scared of dying but in this way we will die for sure. 

Till now we have few cases but it may increase rapidly. Don’t know when this will have a treatment. Really worried about my family. 

Thanks & Rgds,
Thank you for sharing your feelings.

You might consider sharing your feelings with your friends and family - and receiving theirs as well.

Health also measures participation and willingness to share feelings and experiences.

You might consider taking your feelings about <dying in isolation> to Tribe as an entry point.  
Mar 23, 2020

House Edge for Snake Eyes = 13.9%

Hi Edward,

Guess what? I was furloughed ... well not only me! most of the people at [firm]... only stayed 20 0f  640 people.  Do u really think my Company has possibilities to rise from the ashes?

Good thing... I didn't tell you but I had another job (it is a part time job that I used to do in my free time) ...

I don't have debt ... I have my savings ... and I have applied for the unemployment benefit (first time in my life)... and I'm looking for job ... and I will think about what else to do.

thanks for the advise last week and yes my industry (Casinos) will take time for recovery. It wasn't a surprise to me that this happened.
I will need to learn more about what you do and about the trading world.

Hope you are doing well!
and take care!
Thank you for sharing your process.

I commend you for your history of exercising sound financial management, namely: living within your means and accumulating a positive net worth.

You might consider that your character values stand to serve you well as the economic system continues to evolve.
Mar 23, 2020

Viability of Long-Term Trading

Hello Mr. Seykota,

I hope this email finds you well. I've had a question that I've wanted to ask you for a long time, if you don't mind.

My question is the following:

You are regarded as a pioneer in computerized trading for your efforts in developing and implementing long-term trend following systems with fantastic results starting in the 1970s.

In recent years however, the performance of long-term trend following systems seems to have diminished as inflation has subsided, and markets have become more crowded with professional money managers all trying to outperform.

With the above said, do you think if you were starting your career over again today you would still focus your efforts on long-term trend trading systems, or would you be trying to develop what are considered to be cutting edge systems today (example: high-frequency trading systems that trade crypto currencies, or something similar).

Thank you for taking the time to share any thoughts you may have on this question regarding livelihood.

With sincere gratitude,
Thank you for raising this issue.

I notice you conclude that long-term trend following no longer works - and you even go on to give a "fundamental" reason.

Fundamental Analysis generally conflicts with the pure and joyous exercise of trend-trading principles.

The work of The Trading Tribe includes discovery/creation of Right Livelihood and realignment of "Rocks" that can subvert trading into excuses for medicinal drama.

Classic example: trying to catch a falling knife.

You might consider taking your feelings about <high-frequency trading> and <cutting edge> to Tribe as entry points.


Life on the Cutting Edge

Another nice catch.

Let's give him another hand.

Image Credit

Mar 22, 2020

Three Questions

Ed,

1. In your years of experience are there any Back testing mistakes/pitfalls you wished you would have known before? If so, ow can they be avoided?

2. In your opinion with your experience to look back on, what do you believe to be the number one most important thing to stay focused on in trading?

3. If you were to start all over again, how would you do it?




Thank you for raising these issues.

1. Avoid  mistakes with careful proofreading. (ow --> how).

2. Focus on the notion that you can miss plenty by focusing on only one thing.

3. Soak Up the Sun (and play banjo) with Sheryl.  
Mar 19, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
From 213 to 185 Pounds

Tribe Members,

After three months I have my weight at 189 pounds, down 24 pounds from 213 pounds during the Workshop, and on the way to my goal of 185 pounds.

For more details, see: https://www.seykota.com/185

Thank you for your support.
Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process.
Mar 18, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
Bullish on Freedom


Ed,

I am happy to report that that personal relationship metric that I declared as a goal going into the workshop has been improving. I'm keeping the private details private, but I am very comfortable sharing the huge improvements in my home life.

Recent events reinforce for me the observation I take away from the workshop: that most trading is in the side-effects of government policy.

An interesting side note: I've been out of the markets for the last four years, focusing on my business and personal goals. My wife inherited a managed investment account that's been long blue chips and rode the entire bull market up. The performance of these two accounts is about equal as of this week.

Back to politics and markets. I've been getting bearish on freedom as governments at every level discovered newfound authority to close businesses and direct the lives of private citizens. The present pandemic seems like the perfect moment to increase the role of government in health care and everything else.

But what I'm seeing in practice is different. Where I expected people to demand government intervention, I see them complain about it. This is especially striking in my friends in California, whose Facebook posts only a few weeks ago focused on Medicare For All and gun control.

There are suddenly millions of new home schoolers, and parents are discovering that they can do at least as well as government schools. I was expecting to hear that children at home are a burden, but what I hear is that families are rediscovering each other. I was at a sporting goods store the other day, and saw minorities and immigrants lining up to purchase firearms, many clearly navigating the process for the first time. No one seems to rely on police or military protection.

So I'm turning bullish on individual freedoms and citizens' resolve to stand up to their erosion. I conclude with this week's Economist cover.

As Ed has taught us, by the time a trend ends up there, it's over.




Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process.
Mar 18, 2020

Buying and Selling

Dear Ed,

Checking in with my observation in the moment of now.

Best regards







Thank you for sending me your observations.
Mar 16, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
Clear Intentions


Dear Tribe,

Feeling great to be with the Tribe again!

I can feel the big change in my trading result and life.

My equity portfolio was up about 9%  YTD and with recent sell down, the portfolio still up by 0.5%YTD.

Since the workshop in Bastrop, I have been sending emails and reports to the support group on a weekly basis, whenever I think about writing the report, I have a fear of disappointing the group if I did not follow my trading rules or cut my losses, whenever I cut my losses, I feel happy and proud that I am following my rules.

I am fulfilling my responsibility. Another big change, is also during one of the weekly report, I came to realization that my rules was not clear, hence I make it clearer for myself to follow. Clear Intention = Clear Result.

As the Stock market is crashing down, now I am holding almost 85% cash. I am enjoying the ride. I do not "blame" this crash to corona virus (the name is just a name). I see the crash as a Natural Event of the market and I am accepting it as it is. This market crash is a process of making good trader, I am glad that I am in the process.

I also notice I am more conscious about my feeling, less drama triggered as I always acknowledge provocative things with a "Thank You and a Poker Face"

Thank you Tribe.

Best Regards
Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process.
Mar 15, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
Enjoying the Journey



Dear Ed,

The months have flown by.

The workshop motivated me to:

- weigh 105kg, 12% body fat by end 2020
- create trading rules
- use the Rocks process at Tribe meetings
- catch myself daydreaming in a non existent future
- live more in the now


In writing this message, I notice

- I care less about the destination.
- I care a lot more about following the rules.
- I'm starting to enjoy the journey for the first time.
- I see which rules are the most important to my process.
- I find the most important rules the hardest to follow.
- I learn more about people from doing Rocks. I see that our lives are shaped by certain moments.
- I do not like investing. I like to trade and cut losses quickly and move on.

Thank you for the workshop. I wish you well during this outbreak of Covid-19.

cheers,
Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process.
Mar 15, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
Systematic Trading


Ed,

I see two other 3-month reports in my in box and keen as I am to read both, I refrain from doing so in case my own report is influenced by their experiences.

 At the time of the workshop I stood at a fork in the road.  One path was to Columbia Business School for a second sitting of their Value Investing programme, the other was to Texas to your weekend workshop.  I had never heard of Ed Seykota until reading Michael Covel’s Trend Following a few weeks prior to the start of your course, and I had always viewed technical analysis as a bit of a waste of time.  As you know, I chose Texas. 

The result has been a complete transformation in how I view the markets and manage money.  I no longer feel any need to be right, but simply react to what the market tells me.  Previously, as a value investor, I would buy shares when they were unpopular and hold them until they became popular.  Sometimes this would work, but at other times it would result in substantial losses.  The losses bore too great an impact and the results were mediocre.  I lacked a system.  However disciplined I may have been, without a clearly defined process, there was nothing to exercise the discipline on. 

All this has changed.  I now have a clearly defined process for entering and exciting positions, for stopping losses and for letting profits run.  On returning from Texas I continued to learn by reading all the Market Wizard books, books on technical analysis, and additional books referenced by or written by Market Wizards.

I introduced a strict stop-loss discipline on existing portfolio positions and began investing in commodities in addition to equities and government bonds. 

The net result of all this is a well-defined process, discipline to stick to the rules, and vastly improved outcomes for my clients.  As an example, having cut all losses in December and realised sizable profits in January and February, I am sitting in the current downturn invested 20% in gold, 10% in silver, 20% in government bonds, 40% in cash, and only 10% in stocks.  I manage around $350m, so the trip to Texas has been well worth the time and money, having saved my clients many millions of dollars.  It has also meant we are well positioned to take advantage of any recovery (I do not take short positions). 

I came to Bastrop with a bumper sticker that read ‘Pay off mother’s mortgage’.  On the first day of the course I made the decision to do this by selling a flat I own in central London.  I began the process of preparing the property for sale on returning home from Texas.  As it happens, my investment business has evolved in such a way that it appears possible to pay off the mortgage without selling the London flat, which, given the effect COVID-19 is having on the London property market, may be no bad thing. 

I left Bastrop with a new bumper sticker – ‘Systematic Trend Follower by 20th December 2020’. To a certain extent this remains work in progress, as I have yet to build and back-test a system.  In other respects this is already happening, for I have clearly defined rules which are written down in an investment process document that I adhere to.  Simple rules and an effective process. 

In summary, I feel very much a beginner.  Having been a fundamental investor for 20 years and a technician for three months, it has been a rapid evolution, which remains ongoing.  Life is lived much more in the moment now than ever before.  I am very grateful to you and Charles and everyone in the Tribe of December 2019. 

Thank you.
Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process.
Mar 15, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
Experiencing the Moment

Ed,

I meet something different as my fingers flow over my keyboard than what is in my head. From my heart, I meet realizations that I only see as words become experiences that take on shapes, form, and mass. And yet, somehow remain as fluid and as formless as water. That is the best way I can summarize my last 3 months. As the days go by, I give them no consideration of uniqueness or beauty. I look at them as plain and average, not realizing that just having the opportunity to see is the gift within itself. That is what TTP is for me.

My challenge in these 3 months is being present, in the now. I am struggling even as I type this email. I constantly fixate on “ the past” (or shiny tape), thinking of my accomplishments, my failures, my disappointments, and my very few prides. This fixation bleeds into “the future”, causing me to be anxious about where I am going, how I am going to get there, how long is it going to take, how will I mess it up, etc. Being present truly is as much of a gift as seeing. It is something so “there” that you do not think twice about it not being. I develop my clarity of intent as I learn the practice of being present. I do it to develop a “field of self-acknowledgement”, simply to say to myself, “You are here.”

I have no intention of leaving the present because I cannot. It is all there is. And so what about my goal? I am grateful for the opportunity to follow my systemic trading processes. The day I achieve 100% is everyday. Sometimes it is simply a matter of what do I want to give back? (More “work” to do there.) A total of 23 green days since the workshop is what it will be. I will not judge it as good or bad, simply appreciate it for being. I find contentment in knowing my average of performance vs constantly trying to push myself beyond my limits, struggling against this imaginary idol of perfection that will always defeat me because that is its nature. I am free of such limiting visions because through developing intimacy using TTP, I realize I am looking into a mirror of potential. I am not SOMETHING to be afraid of, but SOMEONE to be embraced.

To you all,

Thank you for being on your journey, and for giving me the opportunity to share with you these intimate moments of your growth, faith, hope, and love. Each of you influence me in words, and actions. Thank you.

To you Ed,

For allowing us to use you as a medium to meet and converge… Thank you.

All the best with Godspeed. 
Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process.
Mar 15, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
Back Testing


Hi Tribe,

In the past 3 months, I focus on achieving the goal I set in the workshop.

My goal in the workshop is to fix my back pain condition. After the workshop,  I start to see doctors and physical therapists.

I find a place which is in the same building as my company. With the instructor's help, I work on my core muscles and stretches. I learn to slow down on exercise and be cautious.

I learn to love myself and focus on keep my body healthy. In the past 3 month, I make several trades and experience uncertainty, stress, fear, frustration and excitement. And I start to learn to treat myself well when I feel bad about trading, job situation or when having issues with my family members.

I learn that when things are not going well and I already do what I can, I start to massage myself, or do breathing and gently work on my back muscle, or treat myself with some good food, or play violin. I do everything I can to contain the risk and the rest I do is to be nice to myself. And I start to enjoy this. Love myself and take care myself is something new I learn since the workshop.

I also see specialist to check my nerve system, and about to see an orthopedics. I finish several MRI and imaging. The specialist gives me some good suggestion to manage my issue.

I am looking for more doctors and really want to fix my back.

Ever since my back condition becomes worse, I stop seeing my Kung Fu Sansoo Sifu (master). Sometimes I feel sad that I can't continue practice this beautiful arts. I take private lesson with my Sifu for long years but I stop going couple years ago.

Sometimes I miss him and want to visit or talk to him. But I feel depressed and avoid thinking about it. I wish I could continue my training with him.

Yesterday I finally call him and we have a good conversation. He is recovering from his surgery and his wife is not doing well. I share my feeling of sadness and disappointment on myself.

He encourages me to visit the studio and just see the old friends. The studio  is like my family before. I am thinking to go to see him and the other students after the corona virus quarantine is over.

Thanks,
Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process.
Mar 15, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
Peaceful


Hello Trading Tribe,

I notice that I am calmer in my everyday life, less likely to respond in a driven or negative way to adversity. 

This goes for daily life as well as in my ongoing process to define what my trading rules are. 

My trading rules have been elusive, so I have not been posting updates yet on trading as I have only done a couple of test trades and discarded my process to begin again.  I am getting closer to my final version and will begin sharing trades with my support group when I have a more definable process.  One that I can first define to myself, and then to others.

The positive point for me is that while I have so far failed to create a process, I am determined that I will do so successfully.  Quitting, after all, is not an option!  On my own terms though, thanks to the TTP and my individual tribe that helped me to realize that what was driving my internal mechanism was an experience that I didn’t even realize was there from my past. 

I can’t say enough about my internal peace and desire to do well for myself, and not for others, that have come out of my Trading Tribe experience,

Thank you Ed, and thanks to my fellow Tribe participants for such a great weekend!

Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process.
Mar 15, 2020

Trading and Service

Dear Ed,

I find that I follow my trading rules in 2020.

I also find that I can keep trading within the broader perspective of Right Livelihood and the day-to-day work that I do for the service of others.

I notice a trend towards living more and more in the important / not-urgent quadrant.

Thank you for your guidance and support on this path.

I feel very grateful for it.

Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process.
Mar 15, 2020

TP

Ed,

So a guy in Phoenix is selling single toilet paper rolls for $100.00 per roll.

Another guy rolls up to the corner in his car and buys 3 rolls while the news crew is filming.

Newsman asks him why he’s willing to pay $100 for a roll of toilet paper?

He responds, “I’m going to flip them on Ebay!”





Tiny TP Trio

Credit: Jackie Crea

Thank you for providing your report on your local markets.
Mar 14, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
Goalposts


Hi Ed,

Three months after the completion of your recent TTP workshop I am still in pursuit of my goals but the goalposts have shifted and are yet to be firmly planted as there seems disagreement among the experts that I have thus far consulted, one going so far as to say that I could line the bottom of a birdcage with the lab test that I was relying
upon. 

I remain however undaunted with another consultation scheduled for April 22nd and committed as well to my goal of June 15th as stated.  

More important perhaps than the specific goal I outlined for myself the workshop has influenced my respect and dedication to process and “your own resolution to success”, as Lincoln would say.  Perhaps analogous in the trading world to allegiance to a trading system, once validated.

My focus at the workshop had less to do necessarily with trading and more to do with personal inner work and my physical well being. 

I have still been alert to the market however and the importance the workshop and the Trading
Tribe book place upon having a personal system preferably tailored by and to the individual has for me never been more evident than this last week or two, not to mention risk tolerance, risk reward, and stops. 

Besides our current market the tech bubble, 9/11, and 2008 have also served for me to confirm these guiding principles.

Thanks again Ed for hosting the workshop and leading by example.


Mar 14, 2020

Pi Day

Happy Pi Day, Ed !

Below is the verse from Aryabhatiyam where he states the calculation of the value of Pi.

चतुरधिकम् शतम्, अष्टगुणम् द्वाषष्टि
तथा सहस्राणाम् अयुत द्वय विष्कम्भस्य
आसन्न: वृत्त

चतुरधिकम् शतम् = 100+4 = 104; अष्टगुणम् = 104 * 8 = 832; द्वाषष्टि = 62; तथा = thus; सहस्राणाम् = 62 * 1000 = 62,000; अयुत = ten thousand fold;द्वय = by two; विष्कम्भस्य = of the diameter of a circle; आसन्न: = approximately; वृत्त = circle; परिणाह: = circumference

(((100+4) * 8 + (62 * 1000)) / 20000) * Diameter = Circumference of a circle, approximately.

(62,832 / 20,000) * Diameter = Circumference of a circle, approximately
or
3.1416 * D = Circumference of a circle, approximately.
Thank you for sharing this derivation circa 510 CE.

I notice you write in about 427 years after the one and only Pi Day on our modern calendar, March 14, 1593.




Mar 12, 2020

Old and Bold

Dear Ed,
 
A short note of gratitude for kindly posting a link to one of my blog posts from 2012 about “Old, bold traders” in your February 2020 FAQ section.

Like I guess so many others, I first came across your words of wisdom from your Market Wizards interview and, following that, Michael Covel’s book.

Your website is a treasure trove of information which has helped me immensely along my own trend following journey.

May I wish you continued good health and success.

Kind regards
Thank you for checking in.
Mar 11, 2020

Community Response

Hi Ed,

I would like to provide another update from inside of the  New Rochelle "containment zone".

From here the tone of the media coverage feels really exaggerated and quite different from what I'm seeing.

People are coming and going as usual, grocery stores  in the immediate vicinity are empty but one and two towns over (less than a mile) things seem like a variation of business as usual.

Some people appear a little nervous, others appear to be stocking up. Many of my neighbors have checked in with me (at a safe distance) and many have voiced that they feel skeptical about the National Guard and what it means to have Governor discuss the National Guard in our town in the media. 

I have yet to see anyone that looks like a government official let alone a soldier...  The postman observed some people in hazmat suits spraying a local bank but other than that he reports that people feel nervous but he has not seen anything out of the ordinary apart from news crews.

This afternoon I have a half cord of wood delivered and my sons and I talk about how we feel while stacking wood together.

We affirm that we enjoy spending time and doing things together.

All in all, I feel happier each day that I made efforts to prepare for what initially seemed like a very unlikely scenario.... I hope to enjoy the unexpected time with my kids and the freedom to work from home 100% of the time for the foreseeable future.

I plan to stay home as much as possible, have bonfires and take it as it comes.

I'll report back if something even more unusual develops in the neighborhood.
 
Best,
Thank you for sharing your process.
Mar 10, 2020

TTP Workshop 3-Month Report
Health and Language

Ed,

I do OK on one of my goals and not so good on the other.

My goal of going to the doctor is progressing and I expect to have no problem reaching my target. I go to a clinic and notice feelings when filling out the forms, I feel like it is an invasion of privacy and that the information requested is of little to no relevance.

I wonder how the information will be used against me in the future, perhaps to deny insurance. I have little trust in the medical system. However my interactions with the medical personnel are better,

I feel that they act in my best interests. One visit requires purchasing of medical equipment and I see the graft inherent in the referral system and the over inflated insurance prices. I pay without worrying about it too much but it reinforces feelings that I don’t’ trust the medical establishment.

I loose momentum on the Speaking Spanish goal – I give myself until the end of the year and I make little progress during Q1. I still believe that I can meet the goal in the end, but I make it more difficult the longer that I wait.

I don’t use the resources of my support group, instead relying on do it myself - like usual. I don’t want to report and be held accountable, and I feel like it is OK to let myself down but not others. I reaffirm to report to my support group.

Thank you,
Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process
Mar 9, 2020

Clearing the Clutter

Ed,

I have noticed similar experiences in life when energy is "stuck" in something like clutter and when it is cleaned up, the "stuck" problem releases itself.

Thank you for sharing,



Thank you for sharing your process.
Mar 7, 2020

Releasing Weight and Other Things

Ed,

That was such a deep post you wrote about your weight loss! It’s interesting seeing weight loss progress charted as a chart also, and that we also have consolidation periods as human beings.

What a deep realization that releasing other weights in your life are just as important.. Maybe even more important the physical weight loss and the real root cause of any weight..  physical or otherwise we are holding onto.

I could deeply relate to your post as I have too been in a very similar state realizing things I must release that have been holding me back from my fullest self and have made arrangements to release them.

This will allow me to enter into being more of who I am really am, which always starts with loving all parts of myself.

Thank you for sharing this profound realization you had. Some big progress has been been and impediments to future progress removed, for both you and me.
Thank you for sharing your process and for supporting me.
Mar 7, 2020

Pattern Recognition

Ed, I see a pattern of telling people to discover their own answers to their questions. Which is enlightening on its own, and truly the best answer for the question that is asked. Thank you for always bringing us back to ourselves and to seek outward answers.

At the same time, I am also curious about you personally, and not to take your answers about what you’ve discovered as my own gospel but rather because I am curious about you personally and how you see the world.

Your views of freedom and the self tell me you are a kindred type spirit. Your answers would allow others to see the real you, the real Ed Seykota, not as just some trader but as a person in the path of self mastery, and trading just happens to be an a great arena for It.

I hope intimacy is something that does not block others from being able to see the real you. You are a very interesting person to me, and when I ask you the questions it is not to copy or do exactly as you but to have a greater understanding of the world and ways of living. My answers will be different anyways, but it is a beautiful thing to celebrate other ways and perspectives of trading, and ultimately life.

Thank you in advance for saying thank you, and ultimately being a mirror for each of us. I will also consider taking my desire for intimacy in relations with others, the desire for greater and greater knowledge, and feelings of frustration when others wish to not share themselves the way I share myself to Tribe as an entry point.
Thank you for sharing your process and for expressing interest in my personal world view.

Here, on FAQ, I share that part of me that I feel can serve people who contribute questions and comments and who share their processes.

If you wish to get to know me personally, you might consider coming out to Austin, with your guitar, or other instrument and a few tunes.

Occasionally, I host a series of Austin Tribe meetings, in which we all take turns on the hot seat - and, in the processes, get to know each other quite intimately.

Meanwhile, you might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to get to know Ed> to Tribe as an entry point.





Mar 7, 2020

Results

Ed that was such a deep post you wrote about your weight loss! It’s interesting seeing weight loss progress charted as a chart also, and that we also have consolidation periods as human beings.

What a deep realization that releasing other weights in your life are just as important.. Maybe even more important the physical weight loss and the real root cause of any weight..  physical or otherwise we are holding onto.

I could deeply relate to your post as I have too been in a very similar state realizing things I must release that have been holding me back from my fullest self and have made arrangements to release them.

This will allow me to enter into being more of who I am really am, which always starts with loving all parts of myself.

Thank you for sharing this profound realization you had. Some big progress has been been and impediments to future progress removed, for both you and me.
Thank you for sharing your process and for encouraging me along the path toward realizing my TTP Bumper-Sticker Goal.

For more on this example of applying TTP to weight loss, see: https://www.seykota.com/185/
Mar 7, 2020

Catching Up - Expanding his Essential Tribe

Dear Ed,

It is wonderful to catch up with you!  I love hearing the energy in your voice - I hear you say that you are on-track with your goal, resolving relationships, well prepared and secure. Thank you for sharing so much of yourself with me.

For FAQ:
Thanks to the paradigm shifts that come with accepting feedback, Rocks process and my willingness to implement Heart rock, I have taken steps over the years to prepare myself and my family for uncertainty, opportunity and change. 

I feel especially thankful at this time and would like to acknowledge you, Ed. Your direct contribution to my progress towards right livelihood and overall prosperity has been tremendous.

Thank you for helping me re-tool. I clearly see my way to sheppard my essential Tribe safely to prosperity through this looming crisis and paradigm shift.  Although my wife and children have not met you, they have a look of inquisitive fondness and admiration when I mention your name and most certainly hold you and TTP in high regard too. I'd like to thank you on their behalf too.

I note that my check-ins to FAQ  over the last few years have been similar to this: "Heart Rock is working really well for me!", "Heart Rock is working really well for my children!" , "My wife and I have grown closer and closer, Heart Rock works for us!" , Heart Rock is great for business!"...

Today I am happy to report more of the same!  So again,  thank you!

To recap the last year(s):
Following breakthroughs in Tribe that come from participating in Rocks Process as a PM, a Rock Donor and being on the Hot Seat in Rocks Process, I pare down unhealthy relationships, move away from high friction, expensive lifestyle choices, live within my means, save, ride winners, cut losers and manage risk: at work, in life, in relationships... 

I lose my taste for "Power Trading" where the bets are huge, the gains are huge and the blowups are huge.


I invest most of my time and energy into my relationships with my wife, my children and extended family - my essential Tribe.  Outside of my essential Tribe, I invest my energy into relationships with a number of clients that have willingness to engage in intimacy centric relationships. I have deep enjoyment being of service to and appreciated by the people I work with. Others that I connect with in life, including in business become part of my extended Tribe.  I generally don't differentiate between work/play as I enjoy what I do and the people I do it with, whatever the "it" happens to be...

The results are great:  I have more time with my essential Tribe, I spend my days with my wife and children and participate in their lives, I love my work and the relationships I have with my clients and neighbors, I have less drama overall and have an easy time resolving issues that arise. I feel secure.

I really like the results that have flowed my way following my deeper engagement with TTP. 

I feel as though the keys are Heart Rock and the Whipsaw Song.

- Heart rock works. Also, it is easier to implement the more I use it.
- The Whipsaw song is a great guide that can be adapted to pretty much any situation.

On context and being in the now:

In this most recent time of market volatility and pandemic, I find that I'm just riding the trend of taking opportunities that fit. My wife and I are in complete alignment and have been gradually taking a position in the things we feel are important for our family - namely food, medicine, supplies.

In the event we see prolonged chaos or turbulent times in NY or across the globe, we have prepared for a lengthy disruption to supply chains, and have placed our stops with regards to the essentials. I've been mostly in cash for months and have considered physical precious metals like gold and silver might be a nice way to hedge against whatever the Fed does to keep the ball rolling up the hill.

I no longer feel intimidated about buying physical coins and appreciate you discussing the mechanics of gold dealers and coins with me.

I have been anticipating imminent changes to our routine since January based on news out of China and the quarantine trend. I happen to live in Westchester, NY in the very town that's making the news for COVID-19 cases. It appears that people in my area are both panicking and skeptical. I see people stockpiling things that will buy temporary comfort but no long term upside. Based on that alone, I don't think most people are ready for major changes or discomfort and I hope that people are not metaphorically trading in their lives without stops and without a tribe of their own.

In markets, I enjoy and profit from the extreme volatility, large ranges and fast pace. When my criteria are met, I take low risk trades with tight stops, small size and go with the trend... I use stops and let winners run until they show me they are done. 

I have funding from a third party (a prop firm) that backs futures traders. It's a new relationship and I specifically like the relationship I have with my risk manager. I check in with him in the morning and after I finish up for the day to review. I like the commitment to being accountable for my decisions and process. They like my process and the results that I deliver. They provide me with risk capital, specific risk rules, tools, encouragement, community and affirmation. I stick to the rules, mine and theirs. It's a great feeling that boils down to the relationship. I run my process, manage risk and let things play out . I keep my commitments. 

I enjoy my involvement and the relationship I have with the markets for the first time ever in my trading. It feels like the other relationships I enjoy.  I am smiling inside and out - calm and energetic.

The market and societal volatility have not appeared in my software / web app development business (yet). I have a feeling that some clients may not be well prepared for volatility or change and that there may be less business for me as a result so I have prepared a cushion that will allow me to go with whatever trend emerges.

I saved the most important news (to me) for last:

My family continues to grow! My wife and I are expecting our 6th child in April. In our family, we all implement TTP in our daily lives. 

By that I mean we share our feelings (Heart Rock), especially as a way to manage disagreements and arrive at agreements. We also use Heart Rock to address feelings that come up. My youngest children ( 22 months  and 3.5 years) have adopted Heart Rock as their de facto way of expressing themselves. It's great.

My older kids, (5, 7, 11)  have grit, courage, integrity, emotional intelligence and empathy that have helped them to really enjoy school, friendships and shine.

I attribute this to our family dynamic, and their willingness and ability to share their feelings and ask others to share theirs.  We hold informal Tribe meetings all the time, pretty much at every meal! 

I think that's everything I can think of sharing.
It feels great to report in to FAQ.

Thank you Ed!

I hope to see you in person to give you a big thank you hug once the dust settles!

With gratitude,

Alex
Thank you for checking in and for sharing your process and for acknowledging me and the work.
Mar 7, 2020

Trading Style

Hi Ed,

From FAQ Date: January 8, 2003
Subject: Trading Tribe, Risk, Heat, Feelings and Market Selection,
your Answer is as below:
I define heat as portfolio percent drawdown. I
coined the term while writing a paper on risk
management with Dr. Dave Druz. Heat, in this
sense includes trading style, trading frequency
and stop placement method.

My Question: I can understand "trading frequency" and "stop placement method" clearly. But what do you mean when you say "trading style"?
Thank you for raising this issue.

"Trading Style" includes all the rest of the stuff that remains in your system when you take out "trading frequency" and "stop placement method."
Mar 5, 2020

Thanks

Chief Seykota,

I want to thank you once again for helping shape my belief system about MANY aspects of life.

Lately I have found myself very upset about the large amount of misinformation being spread regarding Covid-19, and many people's desires to downplay pertinent information (endangering lives).

Now I am able to step back and follow your example, in regard to accepting the irrationality of people/markets. I understand that this is exactly how things have to play out. Hopefully I did not mischaracterize your teachings too badly.

Thank you once again.

Thank you for acknowledging me and the work of the Trading Tribe.


Mar 3, 2020

Wants Breathwork Recommendations

Dear Sir

The Mumbai Tribe is now in touch with a Holotropic Breathing Facilitator in India. The Facilitator is willing to come to Mumbai around May for a workshop.

I recall seeing that you too hold Breathwork Weekends for Tribe members. I request you to give us any recommendations or instructions you may have.


Thank you for raising this issue.

I recommend you follow the instructions of your Facilitator.

You might also consider asking him for suggestions about "breathing through" <your desire to control the process>.
Mar 3, 2020

Tribe Meeting Report

Dear Sir,

Please find the Mumbai Tribe Meeting report for our meeting of 18 February 2020 below.

With 5 members present, we begin with drumming in and proceed to check in.

Check In

TM2 (I) - I wish to take my relationship issues to the Hotseat. On the preceding Sunday, I am at a party with a girl I like but unable to ask her out.

I feel stressed all over my body and chest. I also notice that I want to smoke after the incident and I have my first cigarette after a year or so. I also learn that a child I mentor in a program (similar to the Big Brothers Big Sisters) does not wish to be mentored by me. I feel a lot of disappointment after learning of this.

TM3 -  He is anxious after a blood test report indicates he has high allergy levels and is prone to asthma or respiratory problems. He is taking medication for that. He is also anxious as for his son who is going to appear for board exams soon. He (TM3) feels his son is a sensitive boy.

TM1 -  He is happy after NAV’s of accounts his firm manages are going up. He is feeling aloof and not being able to share much with his family.

TM5 -  He mentions he is performing well for the month, however he is concerned about his indiscipline when trading. He recalls his trading in early February, where he overrides a long signal from his system and chooses to go short based on his interpretation of the Elliot Wave theory. He makes a note to himself which he shares with the Tribe. The note is as follows: Then my strategy thereafter - for as long as I’m holding that position - is HOPE. Hope is NOT a strategy!!

This is so painful. I’m not so upset with myself for not going long. Even that may be forgiven (because the upward reversal signal was a weak one). But to go short in the wake of an upside signal from the system I claim to be following, and with no evidence of a downturn other than my EWT based view ... is very very upsetting. I feel a lot of heat and very despondent all over again. I just don’t trust myself to be disciplined ... to follow the rules. I desperately want to trust myself again.

TM6 - He is happy to attend a meeting after 2.5 months. He feels irritated by the new organisational structure at his new firm. He also feels happy that as his new firm is very near to his home, he has a lot of time for other fitness activities and he (TM6) is better able to care for himself.

Hotseat

I take the Hotseat around my relationship issues with TM5 as the Process Manager.

I start with storytelling around my issues and mention I feel stressed. TM5 asks me where in my body I feel all this. I point towards my forehead and scalp where on certain spots I feel like drill bits trying to smash it apart.

My stomach also feels very tight. I feel like my stomach is bound to a hot rope. I pay attention to those feelings/sensations while the Tribe cheers me on.

I start tapping my feet and the Tribe cheers this form on. I feel that the intensity of the drilling is somewhat lower and I also feel some energy flowing down my spine and around the ankles and feet. I air my concern/rant “where the hell am I supposed to meet women?”.

PM notices I clench and unclench my hands. The Tribe cheers me on and asks me to do more of that. I keep airing my rant and doing the form. I recall an incident from around 2005/06. I recall having a crush on someone but do not take her phone number and neither ask her out.

I fall sick with a medical condition and drop out of school for a year for treatment. When I join the school back, I am unable to find her. Later, in 2010, I come across her on a social media website. I talk to her and mention that I have a crush on her.

She tells me she is single, but I do not pursue her romantically. I talk to her in 2012 but by then she is seeing someone. I share all this still feeling the drilling in my head. I also feel a tightness on the back of my neck. I mention that I can get the phone number of the girl I meet at the party on Sunday, but I do not wish to appear like a creep messaging her out of the blue.

PM asks me if there is an incident around not wanting to appear like a creep or not having boundaries that I recall.

I remember that around 2016 where I am not sure of where a relationship is going. I am unclear as to whether I am in a friendzone or whether I am dating someone. The Tribe cheers me on. I keep feeling the drilling.I also notice a tightness on the left side of my neck. I have an Aha!

I realise I need simply share my feelings with women I like and that asking someone out is not a game of manipulation. I feel shame in my stomach and I still feel the tightness in my head. The intensity of the drilling is lower, but present. I also sense some energy flowing down my spine and spreading into my feet, thighs, privates and butt.

PM tests for willingness and I choose to continue. I recall an incident from when I am 5 or 6 years old. I run into a wall and the left side of my head gets torn open. I bleed profusely and need surgery and stitches during the time of the incident, my family is not doing well financially and I feel guilty for causing a large expense. I feel guilty about the incident. 

I stay with these feelings as Tribe cheers me on. I recall my mother saying that as I only have a Bachelor's degree and not a Master’s, women will not like me.

PM asks if I recall any incidents around this but I am unable to recall any. I mention that she keeps saying this constantly over many years. I stay with these feelings. I recall an act I feel ashamed of. I tell the Tribe I am unwilling to share the act. The Tribe cheers me on. I feel the shame as a constriction in my chest and stomach and head.

I mention that one part of me wants to sleep with lots of women and another part feels amusement and disappointment where I am not asking a girl out and then wanting to sleep with lots of women. I notice that the intensity of the drilling in my head is lower, but I do feel it. I recall a time from school when a frenemy of mine calls me a “despo” behind my back. I feel hurt by this and feel a tightness in the left side of my chest. The Tribe cheers me on. The intensity of the drilling in my head is a tenth from when I begin the hotseat. I stay with the feelings for some more time and elect to end the process.

HS Check Out

TM1 and TM3 feel that this is a good intense process. They are happy that I am working on an issue I feel very hot about. TM5 (PM) shares that when he (TM5) is on the hotseat, he too remembers some incidents that feel shameful but elects not to share them in Tribe. He also thanks me for explicitly stating my unwillingness to share. TM6 finds TM5’s management a little different. I enjoy the Hotseat. I also like TM5’s gentle style. I am happy with the Aha! I have today.

I also mention that I do feel strain on my skull for over several months. My Grandpa who is a Doctor thinks these pains are migraine pains and recommends medicine for it but I have an inkling that the pain is from an unresolved issue and I am better off dealing with it in Tribe than thru medication. After the HS, I feel the pain come down quite a lot.

Meeting Check Out

TM6 mentions he is happy being back and enjoys receiving. TM5 echoes the sentiment. TM3 and TM1 add in with their thoughts. I am also happy with the progress. I also encourage other Tribe members to write notes to self similar to TM5 or put any issues or snapshots on the Tribe WhatsApp group. I also mention your (Ed’s) comments on our send of 15 January 2020.

I share that immediately after reading it, I feel defensive, I sit with those feelings and read TTP Extensions again and read my send. I notice the errors we make in implementing the Rocks Process.


With this we check out.

Regards,
Thank you for sharing your process and for documenting your meeting.

You might consider running a role play in which you and your role-play-mother share feelings about <who gets to run your romantic life>.

Your PM and your Tribe can guide you and your role-play mom to listen to each other and fully understand accept each others' feelings without judgment.
Mar 1, 2020

Extending TSP
 
Hi  Ed,
  
I write a test program in Python and confirm your results to the penny.
       
I would appreciate any feedback or comments you may have.

       
Results Presentation and Findings
       
1.Run 150/15 (Slow_Lag of 150 and Fast_Lag of 15), I get below output,exactly matching yours.
       
Fast: 15 Slow: 150 Atrmult: 5 Atrperiod: 20 Heat: 0.100 Bliss: 0.0844 ICAGR: 0.0514 Dr-Dn: 0.6090

      
2.Run 325/85(Slow_Lag of 325 and Fast_Lag of 85), I get below output,exactly matching yours.
       
Fast: 85 Slow: 325 Atrmult: 5 Atrperiod: 20 Heat: 0.100 Bliss: 0.2101 ICAGR: 0.1121 Dr-Dn: 0.5335

       
3.In order to explore how bliss score would change with different Slow_Lag/Fast_Lag combinations, I write some code to display a Heat_Map.We can find that under 10% Heat, the optimal configuration is:

Slow_Lag(300~340)+Fast_Lag(60~90).

       
4.On trading frequency: Form below Heat_Map, we can find that (1)Slow_Lag is more important than Fast_Lag(I think this is because it is Slow_Lag that decide trading frequency, not Fast_Lag). (2)In general, slow trading can perform better then Fast trading.



       
5.On Heat: In order to explore how bliss score would change with different Heat, I write some code to produce below animation gif. We can find that
(1) High Heat brings high bliss score, but also increases the risk of ruin.
(2)Those areas that can live through high heat are robust and reliable areas, as we see,

Slow_Lag(320~380)+Fast_Lag(120~140) is robust areas for us to choose, and Slow_Lag(400~440)+Fast_Lag(40~60) is another robust and reliable area.
       
Please note: In my definition, If Max Dr-Dn>99%, Bliss=0.

See Animation
       
5. Optimal Solution: I run the optimal solution searching process with the steamroller method, which take about 2 hours to finish. I find the optimal combination of Fast/Slow/Heat is 40/420/100%.

But I think Max Dr-Dn along with such configuration is too high to live through for almost everyone.
       
Fast: 40 Slow: 420 Atrmult: 5 Atrperiod: 20 Heat: 1.000 Bliss: 0.3868 ICAGR: 0.3622 Dr-Dn: 0.9363

        for fast in range(10,310,10):
            for slow in range(20,620,20):
                for heat in range(1,101,1):
                    Run(fast,slow,5,0.01*heat,20)

       
6.Optimal Solution Moving: I do some study on how optimal solution (Slow_Lag/Fast_Lag) moving along with changing Heat. I find a interesting thing.When I increase Heat beginning from 7%, optimal combination solution show some patterns: Slow_Lag has a tendency to increase, and Fast_Lag has a tendency to decrease.

I guess this might be a general phenomenon.Track the market more closely(Fast_Lag↓), and the same time, wait for the big wave more patiently (Slow_Lag↑). This makes sense for me.
       
Questions
       
I notice that you left a word in the website page of A Simple Trading System:Exponential Average Crossover :"Coming up: More on how to automate optimizations, how to include longs and shorts, and how to handle multiple instruments."

As I note above, it takes me around 2 hours to find the optimal combination of Slow/Fast/Heat, I wonder how to automate optimization more effectively.

I would appreciate any feedback or comments you may have.

       
Always, I hope you healthy and in good spirit and thanks for your generosity.
Thank you for sending me your analytics.  I particularly like your use of animation.

Per your question about a more efficient method for automating your optimizations:  

I gather you might currently get your results by testing all combinations of all parameters.

I call this the "brute force, test-'em-all" method.

If you have, say V values for each parameter, then to test 'em all you have to run V^n simulations, where n = the number of parameters..

You might consider another approach, namely: running two only parameters (say A and B) at a time while holding the others constant.  

If you have V values for each parameter, you then have to run V^2  simulations to find the "working optimal" value for the AB plane.

Then, holding A and B at their WO values, proceed to find working optimal values for C and D.  In this manner you have to run V^2 * n/2 simulations to find working optimal values for all parameters.

Then, start over with A and B again, using WO values for all the rest, and so on.  

After about 3 passes through the deck, you may find the values stabilizing.

That gives you about V^2 *3n/2 simulations by the "one plane at a time" method, rather than V^n simulations by the "brute force" method.

This gives you an efficiency advantage of
V^n / (V^2 *3n/2) or V^(n-2) * 2/3n.

You might also consider noticing bifurcations, in which you find two loci of optimal values on one plane.  

For example, on the get-in/get-out plane, you might find profitable plateaus for slow-in-fast-out and fast-in-slow-out.

You might also consider some real-world human constraints about following computer-optimal solutions, particularly for very high values of heat.

To patch for this, you  might consider including an accelerating high-volatility penalty in your bliss function.






Mar 1, 2020

TT Workshop Bumper Sticker Report

Hi Team,


Hereby my bi-weekly update (Week 10, 2020) in excel, as well as a screen shot of the associated open trade and stop order placement.

 
Thank you. 




Equity Curve 2020

First ten weeks.

Scale: $-600 to $1000 


Thank you for sending me your report.

I gather your chart reports cumulative profit.

You might consider charting actual account equity, as that gives some indication of your volatility.
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