The Trading Tribe

Ed Seykota's FAQ
Home | Send Mail to FAQ | Resources | Ground Rules | FAQ Index

Epidemic Lab

Contributors Say Ed Says
Nov 30, 2020

Workshop Update


Great to see that FAQ is updated again, I was wondering about your Workshop goal too. Thank you for the update.

I am still on my way to complete my goal, to follow system all the way till 31 Dec 2020. I have been updating the support group through weekly email ever since the TTP Workshop. I am really thankful for their support to provide the field of acknowledgment.

Thanks to TTP Workshop 2020 is probably one of the best year in my life. I have done well in my business and trading. Credit to the Clear Intention = Clear Result.

I am more clear about my rules and the positive intention. Most amazing part is sometime I get to enjoy uncertainty and pain.

Thank you for sharing your process.
Nov 29, 2020

Puerto Rico


Will you ever come back to Puerto Rico?
Gracias por preguntarme sobre eso.

Dondequiera que voy, llevo un poco de espíritu puertorriqueño en mi corazón.

Planeo volver pronto en persona.
Nov 29, 2020

System Dynamics

Hi Ed,

Have you ever found any use for Systems Dynamics modeling techniques as it relates to trading? (As opposed to “raw” simulation)

Thanks & best,

Thank you for raising this issue.

I have various System Dynamics models in publication, including:

Cycles in the Price of Anhydrous Ammonia
Radial Momentum and Levitator Dynamics
Romantic Attraction Dynamics
Epidemic Dynamics
The Assimilation Model - Govopoly
Fundamentalist / Trend Follower Dynamics
Cartography of the Mind Model
Self-Regulating Trading Models

I wonder what you mean by a "raw" simulation.
Nov 25, 2020


Dear Ed,

I'm trying to read a textbook about programing. My head specifically hurts a lot when I read this textbook, so I'm wondering. Does your head hurt when you read a programming textbook too or am I doing it wrong or is this hurt in my brain a knot of emotional hurt?

I would love to bring this as an entry point to a Tribe meeting but I haven't seen any update about the Austin tribe meeting right now.

Thank you
Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider exploring your headache for an associating critical incident and then also review the effects of associating decisions you recall making around that incident.

You might consider conducting this kind of exercise in a Tribe meeting.

I plan to host another Austin Tribe series when I get more clarity about the ever-evolving rules about travel and meetings.
Nov 24, 2020

Wants to Start TTP Meetings

Hi Ed,

I purchased you’re book this past summer and would like to join or start a TTP meeting.

I live in Montrea,l Canada.

How can I join or start my own TTP meetings?

Thank you in advance.

Thank you for raising this issue.

You might consider checking you local regulations about conducting meetings.

Meanwhile, I plan to get the Tribe Reach-Out service back on line - so you can locate members.
Nov 17, 2020

Looking for Updates

Mr. Seykota,

This a greeting from afar.

I see there is no update in FAQ since 12th Aug.

This email, on purpose, is to find you save and hope everything is going well for you.

Thank you for checking up on me and for motivating me to catch up with my FAQ responses.
Nov 16, 2020


Hi Ed,

I have enjoyed hearing your perspective on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

I don’t know much about bitcoin other than a very basic understanding of blockchain technology; so I spent the weekend searching other investors and traders views on Bitcoin.

It’s interesting that there are traders like you, Dalio, and Buffet who have little confidence in the future of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.  And then you have others like Simons, Thiel and Tudor Jones who are either trading futures or buying Bitcoin outright.

Then I came across this link to a recent CNBC interview with Paul Tudor Jones:

I remember that before the savings and loan melt down, a broker friend and I were eating lunch in La Costa while we watched new savings and loan locations being built on three corners of a high traffic intersection. 

I remember my broker friend and I looking at each other and asking: “What are we missing here?”  I spoke to this friend recently and he asked me exactly the same question about Bitcoin.

I don’t know if this scenario is analogous to the S & L situation years ago, but I couldn’t help being struck by the similarities and the lingering question:  “What are we missing here?”

Thank you for sharing your process and contemplations about Bitcoin.

I notice you can have little confidence in something and still trade the trends.  

FAQ does not make recommendations to buy, sell, hold or stay out of individual instruments. See Ground Rules, above.
Nov 15, 2020


Hello Ed-

I hope you are well. I see you have not updated FAQ in a few months and I hope it will return soon! I'm a newer and younger (36 yo) trend following trader. I have gone back and read almost every FAQ post. It's become a bed-time reading ritual for me this year and I thank you for doing this :)

I purchased your book (Govopoloy in the 39th day) and I found it provided enormous insight into what is occurring this year with the "pandemic" and the government's overblown and disastrous responses around the world.

Your book has given me comfort and assistance in understanding what is happening and realizing what I can do to try to help my family. 

Thanks again, 
Thank you for sharing your process, for acknowledging me and the work and for motivating me to catch up with my FAQ responses.
Nov 14, 2020

Austin Tribe

Hi Ed,

I spoke with you maybe 5-6 weeks ago, wanting to join a Tribe in Houston/Austin area. Have you given anymore thought to starting one up again?

Obviously COVID continues to do us no favors but was wondering your take on it.

Also, I have given your Trading System Project a go. I have matched the P&L with the 15/150  parameters. The first tab displays the data from that run. ...  My programming skills are not great yet and the sheet is a little buggy but I believe it has performed properly.  I hope all is well with you and hope to hear from you soon.
Thank you for reaching out about a Tribe meeting.

I plan to resume when meetings and travel normalize.
Nov 13, 2020

Thinking in terms of R

Hello Ed, How are you?

How can I decide my portfolio heat?

I think in terms of R (Van Tharp). Let's say I trade 4 strategies simultaneously which amount to an expectancy of a little bit more of 1R and a standard deviation slightly lower than 2R. Then, E/SD equals to more than 0.5R, which according to Tharp the maximum portfolio heat would be 25%.

How does he arrive to that number? Is that maximum useful for "my money" or for "market's money"? The sensation is that I can afford an even higher portfolio heat but Tharp is really definitive with the 25% number and just for objectives of wealth growth.

Also, my conclusion is that every system should have the same allocation of portfolio heat. Again, how can I make a better informed decision about heat allocation?

My account is small -I'm starting out- so I cannot afford positions with a very small f. I need to find a sweet spot between frequency of trading, duration of the trades and the number of simultaneous positions I can afford.

Just let me know what you think about this. I'm walking this path on my own for there is not much info about it, but I don't care, it's fun. If you kno some other source, please, let me know.

Take care


Thank you for raising this issue.

You might consider addressing specific questions about the Expectancy Model to someone who supports it.

In that regard you might also raise questions about how having expectations fits with following trends without any projections.

You might also ask to see some back-tests, or actual trading results, showing the long-term equity curve you get using Expectation Theory.

Nov 12, 2020

How to Trade with Continuous Futures Data

Hello Ed,
I  hope you are very well.
Following on from completing both Trading System Projects I devised my own system for trading commodities using support and resistance. I tested it on continuous data and the results were promising.
To trade the system for real I must trade it on the individual contracts, but obviously I cannot use those charts to generate the system’s signals.
Should I take entry and stop loss prices from the continuous market and apply those exact prices to the individual contracts? Or should I try to match up the signals I get from the continuous market with equivalent price action (highs and lows) on the individual contracts? At the moment I’m muddling through with the former. Is there a reason to favor the latter or is it muddling either way?

- - - - -

I knew that if I wrote to you it would stimulate my brain to think up solutions to the question I previously posed.
Of course one way to do this is to take entry signals from the continuous market and once a signal is generated, go to the live market and enter on the open.
But then how to handle exits by stop losses? Not use actual stop losses, just manually close them on the next day’s open?
Is there an elegant solution here that I’m missing?

Thank you for raising this issue.

Some traders generate signals on the continuous series and then trade the contract currently active in the continuous series.

I do not know what you "should" do.

You might consider identifying your feelings about <wanting to do it right> and noticing if they prevent you from doing it at all.
Nov 9, 2020

Feelings about the Election

Dear Ed,

My feelings about the election. So it seems that Joe Biden has won the 2020 election. I'm wondering if this DNC win is a short term pull back in a long term trend change where America is becoming more Republican given the big political trend change we saw in 2016 with Trump winning for the GOP or was Trump's win for the GOP a short term pull back in trend where America is becoming more and more for the DNC?

All the best and I hope you are well,
Thank you for sharing your process.

In my book, Govopoly in the 39th Day (2013), my Assimilation Model illustrates the assimilation of the Free Competition Sector by the Govopoly System.

So far, events continue to unfold along the lines of the model, including political contests between the major parties turning into theater for the masses.

Nov 9, 2020

Workshop Goals

Dear Ed,

I thought I would share with you that I am falling way short of my 2020 [Workshop] goal:

'I weigh 105kg, 12% body fat by end 2020'

I'm currently at 99.5kg, 13% Bodyfat, after starting at 92.6kg, 11% body fat.

I wonder if you have met the goal you set at the 2019 workshop in Texas?


Thank you for sharing your process and for raising the issue about goals.

My own Workshop goal has me losing about 40 pounds and weighing 185 pounds on or before August 7, 2020.

In practice, and with considerable effort, I manage to reach a little under 190 pounds and then settle out at about 195 pounds.  

Along the way I wind up with a hernia and also with a case of shingles.  I take both as motivations to reconsider my notions about organizing activity around goals.  

Trend followers go with the flow without trying to project targets.

I now hold goals as artifacts of trying to predict the non-existing future - and also as control-centric manipulations that may easily lead to drama; I now prefer organizing my activities around purposes and processes.

For example, I now view weight as an element in a  process of maintaining an overall life balance between healthy eating and healthy forms of physical activity.

I enclose a recent photo of me with one of my exercise machines.

October 31, 2020
Bastrop, Texas

Nov 1, 2020

Reach-Out Off Line

Hi guys

I am unable to register [for the Reach Out page].


Thank you for letting me know.

I have the  process off line pending a security review.
To Top of Page