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Oct 29, 2020

Trading Philosophy / Water

Dear Ed,

Below is my new trading philosophy:

I believe fundamentals drive technicals. Fundamentals and technicals drive market psychology because if you look carefully enough you will find a rhythm and cadence in the market moves - just like the leaf in the stream example that you gave me yesterday of going with the flow and naturally (and seamlesly) moving around the rocks in the stream like water.

Timing is everything in financial markets and using this three-pronged approach of fundamentals, technicals and market psychology helps me to see what the market is doing and not form any pre-defined opinions about anything (like SAP's $160 post-earnings target, $108.11 or JP Morgan being too big to fail) which leads to logic bias and emotional bias that is dangerous for any trader.

I understand that speculation is as old as the hills, and that is why I leave the business of predicting to the speculators. I prefer to see what the market is doing instead of trying to predict what the market is going to do.

Talking about being like water, we all definetely need to be like water and have the balance, flexibility and the ability to clear one's mind like water.

Anything that causes us to overreact or underreact can control us, and often does. When a stone is thrown on water then water only responds totally appropriately to the force and mass of the input; then it returns to its calm state. Water doesn’t overreact or underreact. In essence, the secret is to have a mind like water (about 70% of both the human body and earth are water anyway) and then the body will follow.

Thank you so much for reinforcing this psychology in me yesterday. I cannot wait to meet you one day and hope to be your protege. I am sending good vibes your way for your great health and happiness!

Thanks and warm regards,

Thank you for sharing your process.
Oct 22, 2020


Hi Ed,

My best friend from high school develops pancreatitis and has half of his pancreas and spleen removed.

I look at the list of possible causes, and I don't see any of those historical conditions in his lifestyle.

I like to hear your thoughts on how pancreatitis develops, including if there are any ties to emotions and feelings.


Thank you for raising this issue.

You might consider checking for signs of (1) anger about loss of sweetness in his life and (2) obsessiveness.
Oct 20, 2020

Getting a Round Tuit


Thank you! After reading this website for 6 years I am finally getting a round TUIT.

The message I get is “willing sender, willing receiver”

Round Tuits

Thank you for sharing your process.
Oct 20, 2020

Reach-Out Off Line

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I attempted to register on your Tribe Member reach-out page. I filled out all the information and received an error message.

I am from Switzerland, but spend a good portion of my time in California. I am a livelong trader, battling his inner demons and I have nearly beaten them all. I am ready, I believe, to either join one of your Tribes or start one in Switzerland or Germany (we live right at the German border.

Thank you for reaching out to me.

I have the site down, pending a security review.
Oct 19, 2020

Still Figuring it Out


-          I have experienced a very timid activity when it comes to any kinds of intense emotions in the last couple of weeks. Nothing too high, nothing two low.

-          I think I am becoming good at detecting drama in my immediate surroundings and I am staying extremely vigilant that I do not get involved in that.

-          I am becoming better at practicing validating messengers and don’t worry much about messages, even in everyday personal communications.

-          Working on figuring out the nature of mind and how thoughts originate. Sometimes it feels all is random and the other times I think it is all part of seamless design.

-Thank you for support.

Thank you for sharing your process.
Oct 14, 2020

Analysis Paralysis

Dear Ed,

Thank you for continuing to update the FAQ, I learn a lot from it. I came to your page thinking that I would learn about trading but turns out I'm learning a lot more about myself, how to interact with my own emotions and how to interact with the people around me. As the young folks would say, "I came for the trading knowledge but stayed for the self discovery."

I feel bad for backing out of the last workshop you offered, I guess I can just keep apologizing until I don't feel bad anymore so again I'm sorry.

I want to keep checking in to show you that I'm still trying and using your feedback. Right now I'm still working on my backtest environment, I have learned more about Classes in programming and have been trying to keep my code more clean but it's really really damn hard. I'm thinking that it feels so hard to do because I probably am doing something wrong and can do things differently that is more easy but it takes time to learn what is hard and what isn't hard. Although my backtester isn't perfect it does work and I have done a few back tests and have discovered a few things.

My broker's commission structure for Futures is too high to make some short term trading strategies work.

This problem is related to the previous one, because short term strategies, although profitable on a GROSS level don't net a profit due to commissions, I'll have to wait for a long term system to trade for a year or two years before it's gone through most of its initial drawdowns before the profits look substantial enough to where I can withdraw profits. I suspect diversification can help with this issue but my backtesting environment can't handle diversification yet.

An issue I'm currently facing is analysis paralysis, there are so many different ways you can code something that I get overwhelmed, which is why I'm going to try to start writing to the FAQ more as even just typing this email has helped me unstuck myself from some issues.

Thank you
Thank you for sharing your process.
Oct 6, 2020


Sr. Ed,

There are people who are scamming others and are dirtying their name, these people offer large profits and then they scam many people by dirtying their name, these scammers speak in Spanish and manage their res in telegram.

I send them images and data about them, I'm from Colombia in my country there is no computer security, I will send you any information that you want to know so that you can report.

Please tell me if it really is you to pay 400 dollars that you are requesting. I will gladly pay them.

Thank you for letting me know about the scammers.

As readers of FAQ know, I do not hold myself out to the public as a financial advisor or money manager.

I provide FAQ (this column) for free.  

I also conduct private consulting, upon demand and according to the terms on Ground Rules, above.

I also sell books: The Trading Tribe  and Govopoly in the 39th Day.

From now and again I hear about impersonators and their clients and gather they have some sort of agreement to run out the drama.

I might involve myself in the issue if either party reaches out to me.  Otherwise, I prefer to stay out of the drama.
Oct 5, 2020

Still Figuring it Out


-          I hit a major roadblock. In one of the events at home I experienced a feat of anger. During this process, my active listening stopped. My ability to not engage in drama stopped. I indulged in it. There was nothing new about topics. It was the same old s--t. But somehow it made me angry. It took a day or two to fully process what happened. I am working mechanisms to actively detect drama in my surroundings and how to make sure that I am not involved into it.

-          Looks like I have hit a steel wall on my path to intimacy centric relationship. I am staring at it and wondering, what efforts it would take to break it to move forward. If price is worth paying for it.

-          Fear of not knowing what to do next is gone. If you do not know what to do next, do not do anything.

-          Another day, another experience. The steel wall I have mentioned above. I stared at it for a day or so. Temptation to get into control centric methods and find a temporary solution was great. I have to manage my urge to save the day with a short cut. I went back into active listening mode. I went to actively express my feeling. I went back into trying to understand her feelings. I was candid enough to admit that whatever she is saying must be true, but I am not understanding it.  Much of my amazement steel wall that was blocking active communication disappeared.

-          I have learned to keep and actively check the intensity of my emotions on almost anything.

-          I am spending a lot of time get handle on concept of “station in life” ( context is in the Govopoly book ) and if progression of time is linear or if it is ever expanding circle of moment of now.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Oct 01, 2020

Wants a Monitor


I am interested in starting a hedge and looking for seed capital. I have been trading the markets for 5 years, and am now building a consistent and marketable track record, which can be found here: (link) 

I believe I have a robust edge which can withstand the coming market crash that is predicted by many analysts. For the last ten years hedge funds have had a hard time outperforming the stock indexes, but in the coming market environment a track record which can withstand the gyrations and market chaos will be attractive for investors who are having a hard time searching for stable investments especially that bond yields will be so low for the next coming years.

I invite you to monitor my ongoing performance, and reach out at any time if you are interested.

Thank you,
Thank you for reaching out to me.

The link appears to lead to an ad-blocker-pause  request.
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