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Ed
Seykota's FAQ
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| FAQ December
01-31, 2021 <== back | down | forward ==> |
| Contributors Say | Ed Says | |||
| December 30, 2021 One Good Turn Ed: I hope you are doing well. Few months ago, I reminded myself that I have not updated in a while. I made up my mind to send you one update before the year ends. Since our meeting in summer 2020… -My life has taken a remarkable turn for good. Many things you mentioned did not make sense to me at the time. But I was blissfully aware that most things you say I don’t get them on the first try, perhaps I don’t want to believe it, and then I come around. -When you describe me as a person who is totally disconnected with my own feelings and feelings of people around me. I chuckled; I was not sure what to think about it. My need to fix myself was so dire at the time, no solution was off the table, and I was open to anything. Over the next few months, I have done a detailed audit of all important decisions I have made in the last 25 or more. Your description was entirely accurate. I had no idea about my feelings. Instances when I had an idea about my feelings, I was too cowardly to experience them, and by avoiding feeling I do not want to feel, I was doubling down on my original errors. Now, I am on a path that is very different from my old ways. In some sense I have created two layers of mind. First, one that feels the feeling and the second one observing what the first one is doing. -I have become sincere about the commitments I make and live up to them. Writing this is back to you and community is part of that process. - I have developed an ability not to get involved in drama going on around me. I have more work to do on this, but it feels that I have come a long way. I can detect drama in my environment very fast and I offer my help so people can get connected with deeper issues. Majority of times they shut down, sometimes they engage with me further and usually we can go to the underlying issue very fast. It is amazing to observe that even little children have a very layered thinking, and they are experiencing life with the same emotional intensity as adults do. - One place where I am finding it very difficult to be in the moment is whenever I am thinking about the most important decisions I have made in my life. It is almost like, how can you not think about the path you have taken that has brought a present moment in your life. When I look at situations where I failed to achieve what I wanted, I try to apply “Intention = Outcome” and I am not able to connect dots. In many instances, I am unable to see if my real intention is to have an undesirable outcome. I can locate many instances where Intentions = Outcome was 100% true. At the same time there are many instances where I find myself lost when I try to see failure from Intentions = Outcome thought process. Although I have great memories, I doubt if I can go back to my mindset 25 years ago and figure out my true intentions at the time, as a result I find myself in a circular thought process about those events. Do it yourself TTP is not working out great in this case. - I am spending a great deal of time clarifying my own thoughts. Surprisingly, it is not a very easy thing. I was hoping that over time, having a clear thinking would come naturally. It does not come naturally to me, and I need to keep reminding myself that I need to clarify my thinking often enough. - I have moved on from the cause-and-effect mind set. Looking at everything at the system level is the default setting for me. You have mentioned that looking at a system's components level defeats the purpose of systems thinking. But I still find myself doing exactly that. I often contemplate if the intensity / force / impact of one component would have been able to neutralize weakness in other components and change the outcome. - I have decided to devote my efforts in uncovering what I really want going forward and what I am doing on a day-to-day basis to get there. Nearly every week, I am finding new applications of “anything you measure, you tend to improve”. - A natural side effect of all these is that I have made more money trading compared to any calendar year in the past. Looking forward to your observations, insights. Happy New Year! |
Thank you for sharing your process. You might consider thinking of "intention" as the set of system agreements, and response patterns you maintain in tension. These factors in tension entrain the ever evolving result you get. |
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| December
30, 2021 New Year Regression A Happy New Year, Ed
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Thank you for sharing your regression. |
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| December
29, 2021 Sir Learns a Lot Mr. Ed Seykota, I hope all is well with you. I just wanted to reach out and say thank you for teaching <my teacher>. I am proud to say that I am a student of his, he has taught me so much and it really has changed my life tremendously. None of this would have become a reality if it weren't for you. I have learned a lot from you, through him and I will forever be grateful. Wishing you all the best, |
Thank
you for acknowledging me and the work. |
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| December
11, 2021 Comments on Govopoly Hi Ed, I received the book today thank you very much I'm hoping to adopt and test the issues you raise in my every day experiences. It seems quite apparent that the parasite is suffocating the host. Have a lovely Christmas, |
Thank
you for sending me your comments on Govopoly and the Assimilation of
the Free-Competition Sector by the Govopoly System.
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| December
9, 2021 Tether & Bitcoin Hey, all good over here, how about you? I’m gonna spend Christmas over here in the island too, if you need anything let me know, we’re close by. That Tether stuff is really sketchy, they epitomize all that is dangerous about crypto, they have super sketchy practices and zero accountability. If that domino falls it’ll be a black swan event for crypto. Regardless, blockchain seems like it’s here to stay, specially with all that’s happening around web3, so it might be something like the tech stock bubble where some strong projects rise from the ashes after the pop. Anyways, how do you see the market? I’ve had to step back from stocks because I’m studying economics in the local university and haven’t had much time. I’m still keeping an eye the news and it seems like a really weird time with the Fed pulling back, so many crazy valuations, and omicron so I don’t know what to think. One last thing. You seem like someone who has been able to dedicate himself to something for a long time, you’ve maintained a passion that has let you do great things. I’m having trouble staying motivated and giving the things I like my all and just wanted to know if you had some advice. |
Thank
you for raising these issues. Per the funnymentals: I see Bitcoin in a bull market on the way to zero. Currently around 50k. I do not have specific career advice for you other than you might consider taking your feelings about motivation to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| December
7, 2021 Wants to Visit Hello Ed - I hope you are doing well through these challenging and uncertain times. As you may recall, I am the leader of the Mumbai Trading Tribe from it’s inception in 2005 until 2013. I’m visiting the US presently, and would love to re-connect in person with you, if you are available. I can try to be in your area some time between January 7th and 15th. If that does not work for you, please let me know if another time is convenient and I’ll try to come by. Please let me know if we can make something work. I hugely appreciate a chance to reconnect. Warm regards. |
Thank
you for reaching out to me. Let me know how your travels go. As people start to travel again, we might resume Tribe Meetings. |
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| December
7, 2021 Something Not Working Hi Ed, I hope you are doing well. I think that the trading system examples are not working on your website. They have not updated since September 10th. I wanted to let you know about the problem to see if it's only on my side or if it's not, hopefully it can be fixed as soon as possible. Thank you for your time and help. Best regards, |
Thank
you for letting me know about a situation. I wonder if you can tell me the exact URL to the "examples" page. |
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| December
1, 2021 Trend Lag Calculations Hi Ed, Now my boy-girl twins are 17 years old and seniors in high school, both in the running for valedictorian while also being in all honors and AP courses over the years. I wish they would apply to MIT, they could also perhaps play D3 sports there as well. Anyway, maybe I should take "Feeling special" to a Tribe meeting. ;) So the real reason I wanted to "ping" you, is that I saw an error, or more accurately an omission on the "Trend Lag Calculations" on the "Trading System Project", "Trends" page. It appears it does not play well with negative prices. Ever so popular it would seems with some futures these days (not only Crude), but any dataset with negative values for that matter. I attached (see attached) a MS Excel spreadsheet showing different combinations of prices, trend directions and the calculation errors that can occur, so you don't have to do much heavy lifting to see what I am referring to. Finally, at the bottom I pose a solution, which basically replaces or improves your... Percent ROC = $2 / day / Historical Price lag = $2 / day / $10 = .2 or 20% per day To... Percent ROC = $2 / day / Absolute Value(Historical Price lag) = $2 / day/ $10 = .2 or 20% per day This will support any combinations of negative price values, both current and historical lag values, as well as any dataset with mixed with negative values. I'd love to come visit at some point with my guitar. I hope you and yours had/have a wonderful thanksgiving and safe and Merry Christmas season. |
Thank
you for reading the TSP material (from 2005) and for commenting on the Trends
Page. The Exponential Lag Computation Algorithm: Lag(t) = Lag(t-1) + (Price(t) - Lag(t-1)) / D Lag($) : the smooth price series Price($): price in the now of t D(Days) : between moments of now t : moment of now t-1 : previous moment of now Example With Negative Prices: Start with a lag of -10 and a new price of -1: Lag = -10 + (-11 - (-10)) / 5 = -10 +(-1)/5 = -10.2 So we have something with a negative price trending even lower. |
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