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Ed
Seykota's FAQ
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Epidemic
Lab
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| FAQ Jul 01-31 2021 <== back | down | forward ==> |
| Contributors Say | Ed Says | |||
| July
29, 2021 Gentle Push Dear Ed, As a purchaser of your 2 books before and considering previous great reading experience, here I push gently for publication of The Trader's Window. I just read FAQ posted in Jun that a contributor also mentions this book.
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Thank you for pushing gently. |
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| July
28, 2021 TT Workshop Bumper-Sticker Report Hi Ed, I read your TT Workshop Bumper-Sticker Report, its amazing to see how you still work on yourself and still there are so many points to work on and how we can overcome our shortfall and be a better being. Your recognition about deadlines is an eye-opener, will try to follow it. Also happy that you have been able to achieve your goal to lose weight, clearing of your left knee inflammation especially your decision to switch to Vegan diet. You also touch upon being more compassionate which is by itself an enlightening realization. “Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.” ~ Buddha Hope this makes Sence to you, Rgds, |
Thank
you for checking in. |
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| July
27, 2021 Dealing with Govopoly Ed, I don't know whether to curse you or thank you for the excerpts you have posted on Govopoly from your book. Since reading your work, I have been experiencing a very high level of anxiety stemming from the feeling of no control over my financial destiny! I am one of the quintessential middle class you point out that is on the road to destitution and have little confidence that I can build a successful action plan. To make things more bleak, I am not even sure how to vet a financial advisor/wealth manager who is: 1. Aware of the dire situation we are in and 2. Not going to take advantage of my financial vulnerability. Thanks....I think |
Thank
you for sharing your process. You might consider taking your feelings about <anxiety> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| July,
26, 2021 Needs To Follow Dear Ed, Great follower of you. Trading with 5 and 20 days moving average crossover in commodities market. Is there any other tool I need to follow? Kindly advice. |
Thank
you for raising this issue. I wonder how you determine what you "need to follow." |
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| July
26, 2021 Guru Purinama Ed: On the pious occasion of Guru Purnima, I remember all the effort you take in for your teaching, encouragement and support. I hope things are going well for you. Thanks, |
Thank
you for acknowledging me and the work. GURU = Gee, you are you. |
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| July
25, 2021 Simple Strategy Good evening Ed, I have seen a simple strategy. Buy when The 10 day moving avarage is above The 20 day moving avarage and stay long until The 10 day moving avarage cross below the 20 day moving avarage then stop and reverse The position. Is a stop a reverse strategy without stop loss. What do you think about this strategy Apply on forex market ? Works? I Want try to test it on 28 curruncy plus gold and silver. Do you think is time less? For Money management i decide to risk 0.01 lots=1000$ for every curruncy pair With a little account of 1000$. This means 1:30 leverage. Thank you for your attention Ed, Best Regards, |
Thank you
for raising this issue. You might consider taking your feelings about <running some back tests> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| July
25, 2021 Private Consulting Dear Mr Seykota, How are you doing? Wanted to ask about private consultation about about trading? Best Regards, |
Thank
you for raising this issue. For terms, see Ground Rules, above. |
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| July
22, 2021 Obsession Dear Mr. Seykota, I would love an opportunity to work for you. I am absolutely obsessed with markets in general. I am constantly studying stocks, futures, and markets. I would say I spend 8 hours a day learning and growing my mental aptitude and knowledge. I’ve learned to remove emotions out of my trading and I believe it’s the difference for sure. I know that I am going to be a successful trader one day, but I would like to learn from one of the best to ever do it. What I would really like is an opportunity to trade with you using your capital and make you and myself a lot of money. I’m currently in university ... and am 20 years old. School is basically teaching me nothing and having to get all of my education through books and the internet. Anyways, If you ever do read this message I appreciate your time. Thank you, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. I wonder where you now have your feelings, after removing them from your trading. I wonder to what "difference" yohttps://depositphotos.com/u refer. Per your trading with my capital, you might consider sending me your track record - as well as character references from reputable members of your community. |
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| July
22, 2021 Optimal Stop Thanks for your insight Ed. I was looking for optimal stop (meaning , may be exit at below 20% from market top before market crashes and at the same time it does exit from the trade prematurely ) Also , can you please explain little bit on what you mean by ‘taking my feeling about following a definite system to tribe as an entry point’ I appreciate your help . Thanks, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. To find the optimal parameter set, you run a series of parameter trials against an objective function. I wonder how you plan to measure "20% from market top before market crashes." For more on The Trading Tribe, see my book, The Trading Tribe, avove. |
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| July
21, 2021 Checking In Dear Ed I hope this email finds you well. A few points to raise 1. Some of the original 2003 pages of FAQ are lacking the photos. There must be a few more as I didn't check all of them and although they are old pages, they are still very useful reading when one is in the mood to do so. The photos are always highly appropriate to the topic and provide the visually orientated type of person with something which slots nicely into the memory. This week I have re-read Reminiscences of a stock operator and re-reminded myself of some of the beautiful tricks he used to win. My favourite extract is his shorting of oats in order to fool the market that the price of corn will also break down so he could cover his large corn short position against the corner of "Mr Stratton". An amazing insight whilst bordering on insanity 2. This old section of FAQ is lacking the "favicon" which tells us which open tab is yours. 3. Making the transition from cherry picking signals generated by my systems to full automation has proved difficult as I have not been able to fully program my years of eyeballing markets to sort the wheat from the chaff. This progress was also hindered by my broker removing access to a lot of sexy stocks due to their high exposure in them caused by the Reddit traders bear squeezes etc. I have however got a few robots running and instead of switching them off when they do things that I do not like, I make upgrades to them as you suggested a while back. My [trading] model received an upgrade which produced less profit in back testing but enabled me to stay with it easier. I wonder what you have to say about sacrificing some potential profits in return for an increase in trader-strategy compatibility? ( A non take it to Tribe answer would be preferred as the Tribe is lacking understanding of such things ) 4. Having a kidney stone subtly affected my creativity, optimism and enthusiasm and now the 8mm size alien has been extracted, my previous positive outlook combined with more energy has returned. Anyone who has a kidney stone, might consider getting it taken out even if it doesn't hurt as this made a big difference to my general feeling of well being. 5. Thanks very much for the rich, deep and wide information provided by your site, I hope it stays there forever. Regards |
Thank
you for sharing your process and for raising issues. 1. The older pages follow a different format. If you'd like to participate in an upgrade, let me know. 2. Early FAQ out dates favicons. 3. You might consider extending your objective function to include strategy compatibility. 4. If you wish to take something to Tribe, you might consider <reluctance to give up control to a computer> and <anger> such as condenses as lumps in the kidneys.
5. FAQ intents itself as a passing AHA, permanent only in the sense of showing up in the ever-evolving moment of now and again. |
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| July
19, 2021 Wants to Appear on Chat With Ed Dear Ed, I saw you were offering people to participate in a “Chat with Ed” - I’d be keen for that if you think I’m suitable. I’ve got a reasonable background in financial markets (worked in a hedge fund for a year, and traded for my own accounts) although I’ve only just reopened my accounts due to pursuing another career for 12 years - as a psychiatrist and training as a psychoanalyst. I might have something interesting to say about feelings from this perspective. I would be keen to do an interview and appear in a podcast if I could be a little bit de-identified (for patient reasons). Let me know. |
Thank
you for volunteering to appear on the Chat With Ed
podcast. The format extends FAQ. We discuss your issues, theories and feelings. I do not provide any advice - other than my standard, "you might consider examining your feelings and taking them to Tribe. We conduct the session by telephone. I record it (about 20 minutes). Thereafter we both get a chance to review it and to suggest edits (mostly to protect anonymity). After we all agree to release it, it appears as a podcast. I retain all rights to use it and publish it.
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| July
19, 2021 Winning in the Slow Lane Hi Ed, I really enjoy reading the latest FAQ updates. Thank you for posting! I have many updates to share so I have segmented them into parts. Part 1: I feel especially interested in the prospect of a podcast and would like to help you. I have some experience with the following if you would like assistance with any of these: - RSS feeds and making podcasts available to the various outlets (iTunes, Spotify etc.) - HTML 5 podcast players (for users to play podcasts in browser, list play lists of available content etc). - "Cover" design and branding - like album art... Part 2: I notice there is someone in Florida that wants to reach out to others (per an FAQ entry). I would like to update my info to reflect my new location in Florida and willingness to connect. When I access the login page on the Reach Out at eseykota.com, I notice that there is no obvious, user facing password reset function. I think it would be a wonderful feature if users could click a "lost password" link, enter their user name or email address into a field, submit and receive a single-use login link sent to their email on file that enables a password reset. Since I've forgotten my user name and password, I'm particularly interested in a feature like this ;) Part 3: Recovering futures day trading addict? For years I think "I want to be a great trader" and "I can be one of the greatest traders of all time if I just resolve (insert self destructive behavior here)." These thoughts are accompanied by feelings of exhilaration, aggression, wanting, hunger, self doubt and guilt. It feels hot and hollow, tired and heavy. I feel excitement at the thought of trading in and out of markets, making thousands in minutes and coming and going as I please. Despite periods that indicate I can trade well followed by self inflicted blow-ups my results are at odds with what I think I want "to be one of the greatest traders of all time" - My results are bad and I feel hurt and shaken by my blowups. I know what to do and I do not do it. I feel defective. Out of control. These feelings are no longer present for some time now. I don't have an ah-ha where they vanish. I just think about it now and realize I feel something else and I behave differently, gradually diminishing the drama. I notice that I open trading accounts many months ago to "be ready" for some undefined event that I feel might happen. I notice that months go by and despite regular reminders from the brokerages and having free capital, I do not fund them. I do not feel any particular attachment to trading or wanting to be a trader. There is no excitement or shame or impulse. This is new. I also reflect a bit and notice that my last involvement with trading and markets a year ago is benign too - Instead of big bets, big drama, highs and lows, I implement risk control and while I don't make a significant amount of money, I don't lose much. I'm even careful not to put my own capital at risk, I obtain funding from a 3rd party by "proving" I can trade to earn a funded account and become a prop trader for the firm. The risk limits are in place. The up/down performance pattern repeats on a very small scale and delivers minimal drama; the equity climbs but rules that require being flat EOD and position/loss limit restrict . the flow of drama fuel. I eventually lose interest in spending my day generating commissions and dopamine hits. I allocate my time, energy, effort and capital elsewhere. I do not feel any FOMO, I feel confident, optimistic and happy. Maybe this is the start of becoming a great trader. Maybe this is a great trade. Part 4: I'd like to report that efforts my family makes to set up a small farm and product line are coming along nicely. My wife, children and I spend a lot of time on physical tasks, planning, and product design. We discuss ideas, experiment, learn and decide how we'll build on what we've learned from our results and processes. The varieties of plants we've selected have been productive in our smaller, 30 plant tests and we have learned a lot about optimizing yield, intensity and the idiosyncrasies of these particular plant varieties. It's very much a living dynamic system. We now have plans to erect shade houses, complete an irrigation setup and begin growing our first larger batches of super hot peppers from the initial strains we grew. I envision this as a long term process and opportunity to develop many new relationships, skills, tools and good habits. I feel happy that everyone in my immediate family and essential Tribe is involved and feels connected to the effort. I observe that my health is good as a result of the lifestyle change that results from moving to a rural environment. I spend time outdoors regularly. I perform physical labor regularly. I feel a connection to both the process of tending to the property and the place. It feels good to see my family thriving working together on projects. I enjoy new relationships with neighbors, mentors and vendors that are very straightforward. My other tech/web/development work continues and appears to benefit from a higher quality of contribution from me. Priorities are clearer, I feel SIGNIFICANTLY calmer and it's easier to know how to render service, accept feedback and connect. I see a lot of overlap too, there is opportunity and symbiosis between the new farm venture and legacy tech and media related ventures. Ed, I credit your influence, guidance and example. Your good influence and teachings help shape my willingness to see this new way of life as a possibility, choose it with agreement of my essential Tribe and embark on something that builds and satisfies slowly. Thank you for your many contributions! Part 5: You have shared some ideas about food trucks and an outdoor food court/restaurant row setup you have researched. It sounded like a great idea and I would love to know if you have made progress towards implementing it. If you would like my assistance in formulating a plan and attaining your goals, please consider this an offer of my support and assistance. You know how to get in touch! In closing, Ed, I'd like you to know that your influence on me has been profound. It extends to my wife and our six children and again to all of the people we interact with in one way or another. I feel tremendous gratitude and hope that you profit in happiness as much as we from what I've learned from you and shared with others. Love, |
Thank
you for acknowledging me and the work and for sharing your process. 1. I have a small team helping me extend FAQ to a podcast format - perhaps ultimately to radio. If you or other readers would like to appear on the show, let me know. 2. I like the idea of a password recovery feature for the Reach-Out service. I have it in the learn-how-to-implement-it file. 3. I wonder if you can identify any seminal aha events that precipitate your transformation from dopamine-base to seratonin-base trading. 4. Congratulations on getting yourself closer to the earth and to the sun. 5. I like the trailer food court idea , for someone else. For me, I like making music better. |
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| July
19, 2021 Learning Languages Dear Ed, Just want to update you. I am still in the drawdown and during this period I have put up more action in learning. I guess that is the positive intention. I took on a 6 month course by Quantinsti (from India), to learn about python, backtest, statistics, excel and many more. I guess by improving my programming language, it will help me to manage my funds better. Hope all is well with you Best regards |
Thank
you for raising this issue. I wonder if you can define the objective function you use to optimize your back test engine. Your objective function (Bliss Function) considers your back test results in terms of what you hold important, such as compounding rate of return, length and depth or drawdowns, volatility, etc.
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| July
15, 2021 Physical Changes Ed, Physical changes are rewarding! I am going
through training that is increasing my awareness and then
strength/function of my pelvis, hips, abdominals and lats in my back. Very exciting. |
Thank you for sharing your process. | |||
| July
15, 2021 Down 40 Pounds on Plant-Base Diet Ed, Thank you for sharing your process. I have been reluctant to share my own experiences without being asked as I figure you have plenty of people happy to give you health advice. I have found similar success myself with a largely plant-based organic lower calorie diet. My total weight loss is now 40 pounds. It was 30 when we spoke at the Austin Trading Tribe conference. I like your references to the Pill-based doctor and the Plant-based doctor. And even though my training and income have come from the medical world for most of my life, I see the business model of illness and the profit it brings those in charge of it. I also appreciate your willingness to be introspective. I have been spending some time with Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations again and find the Stoic inclinations to do good in the world and for themselves often arises from this ability to spend time in our own thoughts. Lastly, some months ago I misplaced my password to log into the trading tribe website. Can that be recovered? If not, I can create a new account. Thanks, |
Thank
you for acknowledging my post and for sharing your process. I find two User name-Password pairs for you - sending both to you. |
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| July
15, 2021 Bumper-Sticker Goal Completion Dear Support Team, I have completion on my Bumper-Sticker goal of 185 pounds. Thank you for your support.
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Support Team Comments - - - - - Looking good. I feel motivated by your success. Regards - - - - - Thank you for letting me know. Congratulations on persevering to achieve your goal. Best wishes - - - - - Really proud of you. ...And doing this during the year and a half we all had since the TT workshop is extra darn special. May this be a new lifestyle and permanent way of being for you. - - - - - Congratulations, thank you for sharing! I hope you are well :) - - - - - Thank you for sending me the link. I now have a much better understanding of how you think and process. - - - - - Congratulations on attaining your target weight. I’m sure you are aware that that the care and feeding of your body is a process, not a destination. In fact I believe it was you who once extolled to me the virtues of being process oriented versus goal oriented in any life endeavor. I’m happy for you. Best, - - - - - Thank you for sharing. I feel delighted to hear and inspired to reflect on your new insights. I wonder if there is an internal (non-rational) “switch” or Aha moment that leads you to commit and stick to the system of Whole Foods Plant Based Nutrition - in addition to the facts and stories presented in the films you refer to, for example. Warmly, - - - - - I enjoy reading your process. Also I am feeling proud of you. You have inspired me to write a bit about my Benzo-withdrawal process and I find a few parallels with the covering up of emotions. As more emotions come up, I do my best to feel them fully and maintain my goal. Although the goal is always in the present :) Love, - - - - - Congratulations! I’m gaining weight recently. I want to watch my diet too. - - - - - ❤️ - - - - - Thank you for sharing your process. I have been reluctant to share my own experiences without being asked as I figure you have plenty of people happy to give you health advice. I have found similar success myself with a largely plant-based organic lower calorie diet. My total weight loss is now 40 pounds. It was 30 when we spoke at the Austin Trading Tribe conference. I like your references to the Pill-based doctor and the Plant-based doctor. And even though my training and income have come from the medical world for most of my life, I see the business model of illness and the profit it brings those in charge of it. I also appreciate your willingness to be introspective. I have been spending some time with Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations again and find the Stoic inclinations to do good in the world and for themselves often arises from this ability to spend time in our own thoughts. Thanks, - - - - - Thanks for sharing. Congrats on your efforts and discipline. Physical changes are rewarding! I am going through training that is increasing my awareness and then strength / function of my pelvis, hips, abdominals and lats in my back. This awareness and strength is developed through elongating and balancing the muscle fascia – not the muscle. You might research the functioning of muscle fascia – neurological signals, immune system, “muscle pains”, etc. Very exciting. |
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| July
12, 2021 Wants to Join Hello Mr. Seykota I read about Trading Tribe in Michael Covel's book "Trend Following". I've heard of you many times in several of the episodes that Michael Covel continually presents on his podcast, I'd like to know how I can join Trading Tribe, is this possible? |
Thank
you for asking about joining the Trading Tribe. No forms to fill out. No fees to pay. No formal organization. Anonymous and confidential. To participate: read FAQ. Write in once in a while. |
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| July
11, 2021 The Length of a Trend Hey Ed, I am an Engineer and have been trading for several years. I am still working on dealing with my emotions during drawdowns and also have trouble not being emotionally tied to the outcomes of my trades. I had a couple questions for you. I read that you don't watch quotes intra day. My question is what do you do during market hours and how much time do you spend per day/week working on your trading systems? Do you / Did you ever struggle with getting down on yourself during drawdowns when you keep losing trades? If so, how have you learned to deal with this over the years? Last question is how long do you hold your average winners (days/weeks vs months/years)? Has how long you hold your winners changed at all over the years? Thanks, |
Thank
you for raising these issues. FAQ does not discuss specific trading parameters or systems. See Ground Rules, above. For information on handling feelings, read through FAQ and also consult my book, The Trading Tribe. Trend Followers hold a position until the trend changes. You might consider taking your feelings about <predicting the length of trends> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| July
7, 2021 Old and Bold Traders Dear Ed, It is an observation of traders and investors who've made very out sized gains over the longer term that they know when to take larger-than-usual positions when conditions are very favorable - "going for the jugular." I am finding this hard to reconcile with the more mechanistic position sizing approaches I detect in the dialog around TT and in literature everywhere. Perhaps you have a thought on this. |
Thank
you for raising this issue. Easy to find Old Traders. Easy to find Bold Traders. Harder to find Old Bold traders. |
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| July
4, 2021 The Best Method Ed: I have been searching for a few months now, the most effective method to feel the feelings. Recently, I started imaging an active mind in two parts, one is where feelings are running through and the other acts as a dashboard of indicator that tells what feelings are running in the other part of mind. So, when I am experiencing anger, the dashboard gets into action and tells me that hey, your mind is angry. Some of the benefits I am noticing are early detection of drama within myself or in my environment, bias towards actions and less procrastination. I know that it is different for everyone. What have you observed as the best method for feel the feelings, so you don’t run away from them and have the possibility to fully benefit from all the positive intentions they have? Regards, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. You might consider taking your feelings about <the best method> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| July
2, 2021 Right Livelihood / Whipsaw Ed, I appreciate right livelihood. One of the 8 fold path. I'm a decades long practicing Buddhist but still plenty ignorant and still working on watching my emotions when strong emotions arise - including while trading. I bought Trading Tribes about a year ago and am still reading it.. small book but it requires a lot of rereading. I very much appreciate the deep thought it evokes - reminds me of the Pali Cannon - deep wisdom and non-linear I just spent an hour on the phone with my on line brokerage trying to understand something I was hoping you might have a a few words for. I always trade with stops. One of the brokerages I use (Fidelity) has a sell order type of a Trailing Stop Loss (%) which I have used frequently with generally good success in saving me from myself. Over the last 2 days I had about $150K order on PBR (petrobras) a stock that I know well and have invested in many times over the last decade. With oil going up, it has been doing well and I set a 6% trailing stop loss. This is normally a fairly heavily traded stock, one of the reasons I trade it, and I had no intention of punching out of it till the trend broke. Yesterday and today it dropped, but was still aways from my stop. Then suddenly at around 10 AM the stock plummeted about 3% and took out my stop, then immediately resumed where it had been. I checked later and could see that the volume was light, but I believe the market maker just saw it sitting there and nothing else was happening, so they dropped the stock a couple percent in one swoop, took it out and went back. I talked with the brokerage and they pretty much agreed with my read of what happened. My intention was to protect myself *if* the stock dropped about that low, not to create an easy meal for the market maker if things got slow. I realize this what they do, but I've been a bit ignorant on (1) If they could see it (yes I guess so) and (2) How low will they randomly drop the price to take out a stop loss or is there no limit - could they drop 50%? (3) Is there any way to protect myself from this - or is there no safe refuge in a slow trade day and a market maker? With Gratitude, |
Thank
you for raising this issue. You might consider taking your feelings about <using stops> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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