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February 27, 2022

Coping with Bereavement

Ed:

This is an issue, I have been avoiding writing to you. I have finally reached a point where not writing is not an option. I lost my mother after a brief and unexpected illness four days ago.

Thanks to systems thinking I am able to cope with her passing away. I am greatly successful in staying away from the cause and effect mindset relating to her death.

I can clearly see there are so many factors at play, emotional, physiological and perhaps even something that transcends one lifetime. All interacting with one another creating the situation/disease leaning leading up to her death.

There are so many other issues that I have been working on for months. That makes me wonder, am I committing to be in the moment of now?

I am also realizing that commitment to anything is not a digital state of yes or no, but a spectrum. It is indeed testing time for my commitment towards TTP.

Thanks for all the support.
Thank you for sharing your process.

Please accept my prayers and wishes for you and your family in this passage.
February 18, 2022

Heart Rock Process - Follow Up

Dear Ed,

It feels difficult for me to put into words what has happened after we worked together.

Everything felt different from the moment I left you. I feel so much gratitude and can only imagine how exhausting it must have been for you.

Many things came to my mind I wanted to do or get sorted on the flight back to <City>. The flight felt very short. I saw my three boys and ex-wife immediately after I was back. She and I managed to sit down together, chat, have a brief cry together and a big hug.

I have not felt as relaxed and light - in this very moment of writing to you - in a long time. Really profound is that I have not had any self-destructive thoughts since we met and my compulsive behaviours have disappeared.

I want to be socially engaged which has already happened here in <City> a couple of times and was fun.

I have emailed with <TM-3> and will ask him if he has time to chat over the weekend. I spoke to <TM-4> on the phone on Wednesday and it looks like we might have a Tribe Meeting in <City> this coming weekend.

What also happened since we met which I cannot remember having had before are realizations.

All of a sudden something becomes so clear and it changes my whole sensation in my body.

I would like to share following experience from the last couple of days:

My father mentioned to me about a year ago that he might pass his title as honorary consul on to me. We did not speak about it since.

On Tuesday, I worked together with my brother sitting opposite him in <City> and overhear his call with our father setting up a date to meet. From my brothers reaction I immediately feel something is going on. I make up a reason to call my father and find out they are planning to meet the <official person> together.

In an instant I am overwhelmed by emotions. Tears well up in my eyes and I am trying to control and hold back the feelings. Later I realise I was feeling ashamed.

I quickly pack my things, tell my brother I have to leave because I am not feeling well. I cycle home feeling very sad. I text my brother and my father what I was feeling.

Later that evening I meet my brother again, we drink a few beers, talk and exchange feelings. The next day having worked at our office in <City-2> and spoken to <TM-4> in the afternoon I walk to my parents house where I stay when I am in town.

And suddenly it hits me.

Like <TM-4> said, I was having expectations. I read about the TTP ideas and concepts in the past and understood them. But it is something completely different when you actually feel it.

All of a sudden I feel so happy for my brother to be honorary consul. I realize this is a new feeling for me. I feel surprise about yet another realization and enjoyed dinner with my parents which in the past always felt dull and a burden.

The next day during the chat with my father in which he gave me all the logic reasons of why my brother has to be consul I felt calm, relaxed, a bit happy about the way I was feeling. Not anymore paralyzed.

I intend to keep sharing my process with you. I carry my heart-rock with me at the moment.

Something has been feeling different around my heart. Having had corona recently I wonder whether it might be myocarditis and will get it checked out next week. I wonder whether it might have to do with our work.

I wonder what you will reply.

Big hug,
Thank you for checking in and for documenting and sharing your process.

As you operate from your Heart Rock and come to process your relationships emotionally as well as logically, you may notice some new feelings around your heart - as it continues to open and grow.

Your "myocarditis" symptoms might actually indicate a nice case of "cardio-aliveness."

Thank you for mustering the willingness to go through this process, to bring your emotional openness in balance with your perceptive mind, and to bring the Tribe Principles, by example, to your children.

Special thanks to the other Tribe Members who participate in the process and who provide the Healing Field of Acknowledgment - as well as examples of implementing TTP into their relationships with their associates, families and, especially, with their children.



Good Job, Dad !

Image Credit













February 17, 2022

Radial Momentum

Hi Ed

I am long time friends with one of your students, so came to know of your ideas on Radial Momentum.

My neighbour is an aeronautical engineer and responded as such to your notes.

- - - - -

Bernoulli equation is based on the conservation of momentum, not energy. It applies to a streamline, not to a particle.

Bernoulli equation is a simplification (velocity vector tangential to the streamline) of Euler equation, which is a simplification (inviscid and adiabatic flow) of Navier-Stokes equations.

Navier-Stokes equations are the most general equations of mass and momentum conservation for viscous flows. For inviscid flows they simplify to Euler equations. For streamline flows the velocity vector is parallel to the streamline. What results is the Bernoulli equation.

Bernoulli equation is for incompressible flows in its original form, but it can be, and has been, extended easily to compressible flows.

Intuitive explanation of lift generation on an airfoil can be given with Bernoulli equation or even Newton's laws of motion. But neither is much help in computations. Interestingly, the theory originally developed using Newton's equations for lift generation on subsonic wings does a poor job, but is satisfactory for hypersonic wings!

Finally, there is often more than one way to skin a cat! Radial momentum, introduced by Sekota, could well be another, or even a superior, way to compute fluid flows. The aeronautical community would thank him profusely if he could offer alternatives to Prandtl's methods of singularities, especially if they avoid singular integrals and integral equations.


Thank you for raising these issues.

Accoprding to Wikipedia,  Bernoulli's principle states that an increase in the speed of a fluid occurs simultaneously with a decrease in static pressure or a decrease in the fluid's potential energy. 

Hmmm ... and so they say.  

So imagine peeing into a jar and then putting the jar into your Ferrari F1-75 and then driving it around the track here at Circuit of the Americas, Austin TX, at 233 mph.

Note: in the F1-75 compact single-seater, you have to hold the jar between your thighs.

So now you have a definite increase in the speed of he fluid and ... wait for it ... no decrease in its pressure or potential energy.

So you might like to conclude Bernouli offers some room for misunderstanding.  Actually a huge room and centuries of misunderstanding.

Disclosure: I don't actually drive an F1; I drive the much more stylish F-150.

Nevertheless, this little fluid experiment demonstrates another of Bernouli's principles, namely: It would be better for the true physics if there were no mathematicians on earth.”

It turns out that a lot of modern fluid dynamics represents little more than Bernouli abuse - particularly for the die-hard white-knuckle-on-blackboard math warriors who try to solve non-linear differential equations by deprecating inconvenient terms.

For example, the extention of Bernoulli to compressible flows does not follow easily; if you try it by wading through the full-on-hairy and intractable version Navier-Stokes without simplifications - like constant pressure - you might just plain disappear in the swamp forever.  

Prandtl's approach, another valiant attempt to fit mother nature's sensual feet into boxy-differential-calculus shoes, seems rather embarassingly self-invalidating; it delivers singularities without apology in which you can get plus and minus infinite pressures.

The Radial Momentum model on my site features the numerical solution of a set of non-linear integral equations that enjoy the flexibility of fitting nature in the way she presents.

The model explains the behavior of the Levitator, including various subtle side effects. It also delivers experimentally verifyable numerical results, and it also captures the transient step-response dynamics.

You might consider coaxing your neighbor to write me directly and to notice whether or not Radial Momentum does indeed meet his criteria.



F-18 Super Hornet
breaks the sound barrier.

As the air expands radially,
it cools and precipitates droplets.

Image Credit

February 15, 2022

New Lease for Java Applets

Hi  Ed,

Nowadays, it is hard to find a web browser that supports Java. Google Chrome / Firefox / Microsoft Edge do not support Java Applet any more.

After some search, I find a way to interact with Java Applet on EcoNowMics series, just to share if anyone outside there is interested on EcoNowMics like me.

Step1: download and install Google Chrome.

Step2: go to this link, download and install Extension called CheerpJ Applet Runner.

Step3: open the web page including Java Applet and click above Extension icon.




Java Applet


Thank you for sharing this technology.
February 14, 2022

Thanks

Dear Ed Seykota,

Thank you so much for the Trading Tribe Essentials Carry Card with the gift, and the Round Tuit.

I love them.

I carry them with me as a totem of inspiration.

I feel inspired and ready to go for it with trading.

Thank you so much for your inspiration, your lessons and examples, and your great advice.

Gratefully,

Thank you for sending me such a delightful Valentine.
February 13, 2022

Recovering from Loss

Dear Ed,

Many thanks for your response. I feel grateful. I have taken my feelings about taking losses and protecting my flock to a few people I trust.

In short, FRED is trying to protect me from previous moments of feeling overwhelmed.  When I am triggered by a financial loss these feelings come straight back to me.
monolconal antibiodies,
My best intention is to ignore the loss and hope that it goes away and avoid the feelings all together or sulk, mope, self loathe or blame until the UNCLE point is reached.

Instead I examine my feelings towards financial loss of any magnitude, which I view as failure, and can relate it to childhood trauma.

These feelings are not pleasant but I stick with them and see that they have negatively impacted me and my ability to logically control my risk and set stop losses.

I learnt to control my emotions while hunting foxes by following a set method. I am using a new "rifle " that I use to hunt trends in the markets.

I attach a torch and scope to the price chart- both EMA's of different length, the torch EMA is shorter than the scope EMA. When the torch is above the scope I call this an uptrend.

I'm hunting uptrends if I'm long so I put a round in the chamber. Before I take a shot I must see where the chart fails as a bull - It might become a fox. This is where I place the stop loss and don't move it.

Bulls charge forward not backwards so I look to buy where they charge through areas that they have previously tested.

I go long a gold stock on my first hunt and get stopped out - I get a whipsaw like the one in your international best-selling song. I notice that this is what was meant to happen and I also notice I have no ill feelings so I'm free to go on the next hunt straight away.

I have a dream recently in which I'm exploring the surface of my brain in a miniature craft so that it's like I'm exploring a planet in a spacecraft.

The craft hovers over a disk shape and pauses ... then the disk opens its eyes and smiles a peaceful knowing smile. Have I just met FRED ? Conscious mind is a little scared but the eyes are kind and have wisdom.

I think my gift is empathy. I notice the ultimate intention you have for the Trading Tribe so I think of you and work hard to try and share something positive that I have worked hard at.

I have a real passion for markets and think it's worthwhile to have a decent go.

I wonder what was holding Livermore back before his fishing trip after a big win, something in the cotton market of yesteryear?

He was looking for support from the weather to change his situation of loss. I can't think of one single reference to his father in the book. Apparently he ran away from home where his father made him work on the farm as a boy.

I wonder what would have come out if he took his feelings to Tribe.

Thanks again for what you have provided to people through sharing your gifts.

Kind Regards,

Thank you for sharing your process and for acknowledging me and the work.

You might consider the "negative impact" comes not so much from the feeling of loss - perhaps more so from the judgment about the feeling of loss.
February 12, 2022

EcoNowMics Milk Simulation Model

Hi Ed,

Recently I become very interested on system dynamic and model building, and when I come across EcoNowMics series on you website, I decide to go though them one by one and learn something by doing.

Attached is milk simulation model I program in Excel, in this model, I make some small changes - (a) if the player decides to get the ending level information feedback per N secs( it means that ending level is measured and flow rate is updated per N secs), then solution interval is N secs. In this simple simulation model, I assume the reaction time is 0; (b) I allow flow rate to be negative if ending level is above target level.

The players can try different "N" value and to see how ending level curve would evolve accordingly.

I want to share below simulation gif with you, along with several findings or insights.

a. Once N > 2( but needs to below 4), the ending level dynamic curve evolves into wedge pattern.
b. If time constant is unknown in advance, and the players need to figure out its value, the players can input different N and to observe how the pattern evolves, through this method, the players can know the important component(namely time constant) of model structure.

You comments or any highlight on potential research directions is appreciated.

I wish you healthy and happy!


Thank you for sending me the video of  your dynamic spreadsheet (below in large panel).

The Java Applets on the EcoNowMics site no longer work - since popular browsers currently deprecate applets over security issues.

You might consider transcribing your spreadsheet to Java Script / PHP.

You could then add a controller for the user who wishes to engage the game in real-time.




February 7, 2022

Epidemic Lab

Hello Ed,

I greatly admire your work and enjoyed reading Govopoly.

I was just looking at Seykota.com Epidemic Lab and wondered what you think the U.S. could have done in order to prevent so many in its population from dying of COVID-19.

For instance, the difference in pandemic deaths in the U.S. vs those in China (with obviously a much larger population) is enormous.

I was wondering why you think this difference is so large.

Best regards,

Thank you for raising this issue.

The model indicates that a low-cost-low-risk cure1. might provide prophylaxis and amelioration of infection - all leading to rapid development of general natural immunity.

Lock downs generally retard the natural immunization process and may promote co-morbidities associating with isolation, fear and economic hardship.

Immunization by vaccine generally appears late in the cycle, might not immunize against variants and might have side effects.

The U. S. response succeeds in (1) demonstrating the increasing reach of the Govopoly System and in (2) transferring substantial power and wealth to the Medical-Industrial Complex.

The difference between the current worldwide response to Covid-19 and the response to previous outbreaks of flu with similar morbidity indicates the exponential growth of the Govopoly System as it enters the 39-th day.

1. possible examples: vitamins B12, C and D3, zinc, hydroxychloroquinine, ivermectin , healthy diet, monolconal antibiodies, exercise and sunshine.
February 6, 2022

Humanoids of a Like Mind

Good evening Ed,

I wanted to reach out and see if you would be willing to offer some advice in a couple areas--

I am working to scale up my trading activities and have a trend trading system that I have back-tested and feel comfortable with. 

I am quite limited in terms of capital, however, and was considering funding through one of several different prop firms.  I wanted to get your perspective on proprietary trading firms as I am certain you have considered both  pro's and con's in working with these firms.  Do you have any opinions on funding through proprietary trading firms? 

While It is certainly less than ideal, and I would absolutely love to self-fund (as I certainly don't want to share the profits) I wonder if there may be some benefit to working through a prop firm in order to accelerate growth as a trading professional.  Do you know anyone who has successfully grown their trading career through the aid of a prop firm?

I have also observed that many of these firms have stringent rules in place--while I appreciate and welcome risk management rules, I am concerned that some of the rules regarding holding positions overnight and closing positions at EOD may limit one's ability to trade in a true trend following methodology. 

Do you feel trend following can be shrunken to shorter time frames?  Can a day trader actually trend follow if he/she can't allow their profits to run over multiple days or weeks?

Thank you so much for your time and help with these questions.  As I am sure you well know, it is hard as a trader to get outside of one's own head and one's own home-office and I, like many fascinated quants find myself ever-isolated. 

I know how important a community is and I appreciate any help you offer as I attempt to remain connected to other like-minded humanoids!!

Most Sincerely,

Thank you for raising several issues.

You might consider optimizing your trading system around volatility-normal profitability rather than around personal comfort.

You might consider taking your feelings about <not wanting to share> and <stringent rules> to Tribe as entry points.

Our judgments abut our feelings generally wind up determining the shape of our lives.







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