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Ed
Seykota's FAQ
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July 20, 2022
Lake Ratio
Hi Ed,
I would like to apply Lake Ratio to my system.
Do you have an example file in excel that you can send to me?
Thanks,
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Thank you for asking about the Lake Ratio.
I have it on my site in 2003, as an illustration of risk metrics - possibly useful to measure trading results.
I do not know of a way to use it as a trading indicator.
Curiously, I notice quite a few articles about it now appear on line.
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July
19, 2022
Musical Bears
Dear Ed,
Spotted this in SF today. It reminds me of us as Classical
Grass.
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Thank
you for sending me me the photo and remembrances of us playing music
together at Lake Tahoe.
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A
Couple of Bears
waiting for a sell signal.
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July
18, 2022
Inflation
Model
Dear Ed,
I hope you are doing well. Please consider watching my video
where I do an experiment to illustrate inflation visually.
Please consider sharing your thoughts about this attempt to model
inflation.
Thank you
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Thank
you for sending me your video.
You might consider preparing a graph of money supply vs. gold price -
to see how well your linear-causal model captures the relationship.
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July
16, 2022
What is the
Difference
Hi Edward,
what is the difference between the government of the republic and
centralized government?
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Thank
you for raising this issue.
You might consider clarifying your question by re-writing
it without using any variations of the verb, "to be."
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July
16, 2022
Chet Atkins
Hello Ed,
My father and I recently purchased your Govopoly book and have been
enjoying your work.
I notice you acknowledge my guitar teacher Chet Atkins for inspiration.
I wonder if you have taken time to assimilate his protege Lenny
Breau? He was somewhat of a secret. You might
consider listening to his record online ‘Guitar Sounds from Lenny
breau’ as well as his live album ‘velvet touch’. Chet and
Lenny have a duo record together entitled ‘standard brands’.
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Thank
you for acknowledging my book and for sending me the link to Lenny.
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July
15, 2022
Tribe Meeting
Report
Ed,
I hope all is well. Writing to share the Jersey City tribe experienced
a breakthrough in feeling Joy.
The session had 3 members, one of which this was his first Tribe
session.
We
emoted hand movements (mimicking each other in the field of
acknowledgment), shared the lack of intensity of feelings being ripe,
and went with the feeling of calm and lightness.
We
each had goals we wanted to work on and the feelings
didn't initially develop. Instead of fighting our feelings we
went
with the ones we experienced in the moment at the session.
One
member really went with the lightness which developed a hand
shaking, shoulder roll, deep breathing that all members
encouraged. He really got into it and shared feelings about his family.
I got on the hot seat and went with the hand shaking. This
developed into shoulder rolling, stomach clenching, deep
breathing, gagging, foot shaking and seat bouncing. The gagging feeling
in my throat changed from a ball above my adams apple to a small round
item below my adams apple that felt like the hilt of a sword going down
my chest.
The newest member shared feelings of being in a safe place and enjoying
the lightness, stating he felt like he was home.
This
morning my joy breakthrough came as I enjoyed a scenario of people
laughing at me tripping over a shoe in the house, and instead of me
getting angry or frustrated, I also laughed -- a good light laugh. It
was incredible.
This is the first Tribe session I've been to exploring feelings of
lightness, happiness, and joy.
Thanks,
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Thank
you for sharing your feelings and for documenting your Tribe Meeting.
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July
14, 2022
Existential
Ed,
I wish to ask you two existential questions:
1. What is the purpose of mankind?
2. What is the truth?
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Thank
you for raising your existential questions.
Existentialism
has various tenants including that the world has no inherent meaning
and each person bears responsibility for his own views, meanings,
truths and actions.
Existentially speaking, your questions have no inherent meaning - so I
answer them as I see fit, per this reply.
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Jul
13, 2022
Why
Ed:
On this auspicious occasion of Guru Purnima , I am thinking about you
and wondering why
FAQ has not been updated since March ? Maybe you are in PR. I am also
wondering if Austin tribe meets regularly or if you are planning to do
any workshops in Austin.
Thanks for triggering all the
progress over the years. More I learn, only to realize that
there
is much more ahead of me to learn.
Regards,
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Thank
you for reaching out on Guru Purinama and for asking why.
Why generally expresses an invitation to leave the world of intimacy
and feelings and to enter the world of control and logic.
To you and other whys-guys, I offer the following by Annie Lennox.
Link.
Anne asks "why" in a fully-orchestral way, and then laments that her
lover does not know how she feels.
You might consider taking your feelings about {needing to ask why} to
Tribe as an entry point.
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July
11, 2022
Wants to Join
a Tribe
Hi Ed Seykota,
Hope all is well with you.
I have read your book and visited your website. The trading Tribe book
and www.seykota.com
are really a delight to read for me.
Thank you so much for sharing your wisdom.
I
am interested in attending the Trading Tribe Event. Do you
have an
online Trading Tribe meeting? How do I get the information about
the Trading Tribe meeting?
Carpe Diem,
😃
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Thank
you for acknowledging me and the website and the work.
I plan to host a Tribe Series early next year.
For more information, watch the FAQ pages.
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July
6, 2002
Understanding Feelings
Hi Ed.
I came across this picture and thought you’d might like to see it.
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The
Colors of Feelings
Safe = Green; Joy = Yellow
Grief = Black; Anger = Red;
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Source:
Contributor |
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Thank
you for sending me your photo.
I notice the card recommends "understanding"
feelings. In TTP, we aim to accept
and experience our feelings - and use them to illuminate our methods..
I also notice bright yellow goes with joy while anger gets red and
grief gets black.
The
coloration scheme seems in line with typical opinions and judgments
about these feelings - and seems consistent with people having more
willingness to experience joy than grief.
Facility with
experiencing grief, about, say a losing trade, can help you move more
quickly and fully through it and get on to the next trade without
having to carry the baggage, such may contain fear and
hesitation.
You might consider taking your feelings about {Grieving over Trades} to
Tribe as an entry point.
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July
6, 2022
Chop Chop
Dear Mr. Seykota,
Have you ever temporarily turned off an algo using your subjective
judgment, expecting a chop?
I have found that you get the nastiest chop and drawdown following a
big, sudden drop.
I face a dilemma since I'm 99% sure it is not going to break out any
time soon, but if I miss that one trade, I'm absolutely screwed.
Is this another version of "High return, no drawdown" fantasy?
Thanks,
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Thank
you for raising this issue.
A trading system or, as you call it, an algo, defines a set of rules
that guides your trading.
Subjective
Judgment and 99%
Sure indicate trading by guess and hunch, likely
responding to hope, fear, greed and anguish.
Using both in your trading indicates a desire on your part to go for
high drama, promote the release of dopamine and, likely, using
excitement to mask deeper issues.
You might consider taking your feelings about {Right Livelihood} to
Tribe as an entry point.
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July
4, 2002
Volatility
and Risk
Hi Ed,
first of all I would like to thank you for taking the time and making
all this great information out there. Both on handling emotions as well
as trading (even though they might be heavily intertwined).
Secondly, I would love to attend a TT meeting in the US. I am based in
Sweden but if I can somewhere find out dates I would be able to plan a
short trip to the US. I recognize the full value is through repetitive
practice but I still believe the experience would be
invaluable.
Thirdly, trading question. What are your thoughts on volatility?
I find many fund managers and traders speaking as if volatility = risk
and I don’t agree as sell offs can be irrational.
Simply watching volatility also completely disregards that large
positive movements in a portfolio or strategy is not negative but
should be viewed in a positive light.
I find the Sortino ratio better to describe a portfolio than sharpe
ratio, yet the sharpe ratio is more commonly used.
I'm thinking about writing a paper on my thoughts and as I am in the
early stages I would love to hear your thoughts and if you have any
experience on the topic? What would be interesting to look
at? Am I completely wrong and volatility does indeed equal
risk?
Once again, thanks for taking the time.
I wish you all the best.
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Thank
you for raising this issue.
In physics, we have volatility as the proclivity of a substance to
vaporize; Isopropyl alcohol has a higher volatility than, say, butter.
Volatility results from individual molecules moving about quickly. You
can measure volatility as a vapor pressure, in Pascals or Kg/(m-s^2).
In psychology, volatility refers to the proclivity of a person to anger
and / or to act irrationally and violently. Again, a person
under pressure may act in a volatile manner.
In trading, volatility refers to the tendency of the price of an
instrument to change quickly, perhaps responding to surprising strong
market pressures.
Thus, we have volatility as a property of an object with some
relationship to rapid change and pressure.
Risk refers to the possibility of danger, harm or loss. You
can measure financial risk in dollars. If you have 5
contracts long of Soybeans with a protective stop 20 cents below the
market, you may estimate your maximum risk at $5,000 - assuming you can
fill your stop without any skid.
You might also estimate a probability of electing your stop, say 50%.
That then gives you a probability-normal risk of $2500.
Note that traders who do not use stops, have no way to control, or even
estimate risk.
Risk also depends on position size. If you have 50 contracts
long with a stop 40 cents below the market, you can estimate
your maximum risk at $100,000.
Thus, we have risk as primarily a property of the trader.
Thus, we have volatility and risk as two separate and quite concepts.
Setting risk and volatility equal in an equation provides little useful
information about either and generally indicates more more about the
mental laziness of the guy formulating such an loony equation.
You might consider taking your feelings about {thinking things through}
to Tribe as an entry point.
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